风险管理[外文翻译]

1、外文翻译risk managementmaterial source: springer series in reliability engineering, 2010，risks in technological systems, pages 175-198author: teije aventhis chapter reviews and discusses the basic issues and principles of risk management, including: risk acceptability(tolerability) risk reduction and th

2、e alarp principle cautionary and precautionary principlesand presents a case study showing the importance of these issues and principles in a practical management context. before we take a closer look, let us briefly address some basic features of risk management.overview of risk managementthe purpo

3、se of risk management is to ensure that adequate measures are taken to protect people, the environment, and assets from possible harmful consequences of the activities being undertaken, as well as to balance different concerns, in particular risks and costs. risk management includes measures both to

4、 avoid the hazards and to reduce their potential harm. traditionally, in industries such as nuclear, oil and gas risk management was based on a prescriptive regulating regime, in which detailed requirements were set with regard to the design and operation of the arrangements. this regime has gradual

5、ly been replaced by a more goal-oriented regime, putting emphasis on what to achieve rather than on the means of achieving it.risk management is an integral aspect of a goal-oriented regime (figure 12.1). it is acknowledged that risk cannot be eliminated but must be managed there is nowadays an enor

6、mous drive and enthusiasm in various industries and in society as a whole to implement risk management in organizations. there are high expectations that risk management is the proper framework through which to achieve high levels of performance.risk management involves achieving an appropriate bala

7、nce between realizing opportunities for gain and minimizing losses. it is an integral part of good management practice and an essential element of good corporate governance it is an iterative process consisting of steps that, when undertaken in sequence, can lead to a continuous improvement in decis

8、ion-making and facilitate a continuous improvement in performanceto support decision-making regarding design and operation, risk analyses arc carried out. they include the identification of hazards and threats, cause analyses, consequence analyses, and risk descriptions. the results are then evaluat

9、ed the totality of the analyses and the evaluations are referred to as risk assessments risk assessment is followed by risk treatment, which is a process involving the development and implementation of measures to modify the risk, including measures designed to avoid, reduce (“optimize') transfe

10、r, or retain the risk risk transfer means sharing with another party the benefit or loss associated with a risk. it is typically effected through insurance risk management covers all coordinated activities in the direction and control of an organization with regard to risk. this terminology is in li

11、ne with iso/iec guide 73(2002).figure 12.1.complex industrial activities require systematic risk management. here a view of the mexican oil refinery francisco i madero. (photo: adalberto rios szalay/age/scanpix)in many enterprises, the risk management tasks are divided into three main categories: st

12、rategic risk, financial risk, and operational risk strategic risk includes aspects and factors that are important for the enterprisers long-term strategy and plans, for example mergers and acquisitions, technology, competition, political conditions, legislation and regulations, and labor market. fin

13、ancial risk includes the enterprisers financial situation, and includes: market risk, associated with the costs of goods and services, foreign exchange rates and securities (shares, bonds, etc.) credit risk, associated with a debtor's failure to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed ter

14、ms liquidity risk, reflecting lack of access to cash; the difficulty of selling an asset in a timely manneroperational risk is related to conditions affecting the normal operating situation: accidental events, including failures and defects, quality deviations, natural disasters intended acts; sabot

15、age, disgruntled employees, etc. loss of competence, key personnel legal circumstances, associated for instance, with defective contracts and liability insurancefor an enterprise to become successful in its implementation of risk management, top management needs to be involved, and activities must b

16、e put into effect on many levels. some important points to ensure success are (aven 2008a): the establishment of a strategy for risk management, i.e., the principles of how the enterprise defines and implements risk management. should one simply follow the regulatory requirements (minimal requiremen

17、ts), or should one be the "best in the class"? the establishment of a risk management process for the enterprise, i.e., formal processes and routines that the enterprise is to follow. the establishment of management structures, with roles and responsibilities, such that the risk analysis p

18、rocess becomes integrated into the organization. the implementation of analyses and support systems, such as risk analysis tools, recording systems for occurrences of various types of events, etc. the communication, training, and development of a risk management culture, so that the competence, unde

19、rstanding, and motivation level within the organization is enhanced.given the above fundamentals of risk management, the next step is to develop principles and a methodology that can be used in practical decision-making this is not, however, straightforward. there are a number of challenges and here

20、 we address some of these: establishing an informative risk picture for the various decision alternatives using this risk picture in a decision-making contextestablishing an informative risk picture means identifying appropriate risk indices and assessments of uncertainties. using the risk picture i

21、n a decision making context means the definition and application of risk acceptance criteria, cost benefit analyses and the alarp principle, which states that risk should be reduced to a level which is as low as is reasonably practicable.it is common to define and describe risks in terms of probabil

22、ities and expected values this has, however, been challenged, since the probabilities and expected values can camouflage uncertainties; see, e.g., rosa (1998) and aven (2003, 2008b).the assigned probabilities are conditional on a number of assumptions and suppositions, and they depend on the backgro

23、und knowledge uncertainties are often hidden in this background knowledge, and restricting attention to the assigned probabilities can camouflage factors that could produce surprising outcomes. by jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects are easily truncated, and potential

24、surprises may be left unconsidered.let us, as an example, consider the risks, seen through the eyes of a risk analyst in the 1970s, associated with future health problems for divers working on offshore petroleum projects. the analyst assigns a value to the probability that a diver would experience h

25、ealth problems (properly defined) during the coming 30 years due to the diving activities. let us assume that a value of l%was assigned, a number based on the knowledge available at that time. there are no strong indications that the divers will experience health problems, but we know today that the

26、se probabilities led to poor predictions. many divers have experienced severe health problems (aven and vinnem, 2007).by restricting risk to the probability assignments alone, important aspects of uncertainty and risk are hidden. there is a lack of understanding about the underlying phenomena, but t

27、he probability assignments alone are not able to fully describe this status.several risk perspectives and definitions have been proposed in line with this realization. for example, aven(2007a,2008a)defines risk as the two-dimensional combination of events/consequences and associated uncertainties(wi

28、ll the events occur, what will the consequences be).a closely related perspective is suggested by aven and renn(2008a),who define risk associated with an activity as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of the activity, where severity refers to intensity, size, extension, scope and oth

29、er potential measures of magnitude with respect to something that humans value(lives, the environment, money, etc.). losses and gains, expressed for example in monetary terms or as the number of fatalities, are ways of defining the severity of the consequences see also aven and kristensen(2005).in t

30、he case of large uncertainties, risk assessments can support decision making, but other principles, measures, and instruments are also required, such as the cautionary/precautionary principles (hes, 2001; aven and vinnem 2007) as well as robustness and resilience strategies (irgc, 2005); see section

31、s 2.4 and 12.6.an informative decision basis is needed, but it should be far more nuanced than can be obtained by a probabilistic analysis alone this has been stressed by many researchers, e.g., apostolakis (1990) and apostolakis and lemon (2005): qualitative risk analysis (qra) results are never th

32、e sole basis for decision-making. safety-and security-related decision-making is risk-informed, not risk-based. this conclusion is not, however, justified merely by referring to the need for addressing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values. the main issue here is the fact that risks

33、 need to be balanced with other concernsrisk management and the risk analysis processthe risk analysis process is a central part of risk management, and has a basic structure that is independent of its area of application. there are several ways of presenting the risk analysis process, but most stru

34、ctures contain the following three key elements (compare with figure 12.2): planning risk assessment(execution) risk treatment(use)risk analyses, cost-benefit analyses, and related types of analyses provide support for decision-making, leaving the decision-makers to apply decision processes outside

35、the direct applications of the analyses we speak of managerial review and judgment (figure 12.2).it is not desirable to develop tools that prescribe or dictate the decision. that would mean too mechanical an approach to decision-making and would fail to recognize the important role of management in

36、performing difficult value judgments involving uncertainty.nonetheless, there is a need for guidance and a structure for decision-making in situations involving high risks and large uncertainties. the aim must be to achieve a certain level of consistency in decision-making and of confidence in obtai

37、ning desirable outcomes such guidance and structure exist to some degree, and the challenge is to find the right level. this will be discussed in more detail in the following sections.more generally, the risk management process can be divided into the following steps(irgc,2005)according to the basic

38、 model used by decision theory(lindley, 1985;morgan,1990;keeney,1992;hammond et al., 1999):1. identification and generation of risk management options risk reduction can be accomplished by many various means, including: technical standards and limits that prescribe the permissible threshold of conce

39、ntrations, emissions, take-up or other measures of exposure performance standards for technological and chemical processes such as minimum temperatures in waste incinerators technical prescriptions referring to the blockage of exposure(e.g. via protective clothing)or the improvement of resilience(e.

40、g via immunization or earthquake-tolerant structures) governmental economic incentives including taxation, duties, subsidies, and certification schemes third party incentives, i.e. private monetary or in-kind incentives compensation schemes(monetary or in-kind) insurance and liability cooperative an

41、d informative options ranging from voluntary agreements to labeling and education programsall these options can be used individually or in various combinations to accomplish even more effective risk reduction. one way of implementing the risk reduction is to apply the alarp-principle (see also secti

42、on 12.5).2. assessment of risk management options each of the options will have desired and unintended consequences in most instances, an assessment should be made according to the following criteria: effectiveness does the option achieve the desired effect? efficiency. does the option achieve the d

43、esired effect with the least resource consumption? minimization of external side-effects. does the option infringe on other valuable goods, benefits, or services such as competitiveness, public health, environmental quality, social cohesion, etc.? does it impair the efficiency and acceptance of the

44、governance system itself? sustainability. does the option contribute to the overall goal of sustainability?does it assist in sustaining vital ecological functions, economic prosperity, and social cohesion? fairness. does the option burden the subjects of regulation in a fair and equitable manner? po

45、litical and legal acceptability. is the option compatible with legal requirements and political programs? ethical acceptability. is the option morally acceptable? public acceptance will those individuals who are affected by it accept the option? are there cultural preferences or symbolic connotation

46、s that have a strong influence on how the risks are perceived?measuring management options against these criteria may give rise to conflicting messages and results. many measures that prove to be effective may turn out to be inefficient or unfair to those who will be burdened other measures may be s

47、ustainable but not acceptable to the public or important stakeholders.3. a broad evaluation and judgment of risk management options: this step integrates the evidence as to how the options perform with regard to the evaluation criteria with a value judgment concerning the relative weight which shoul

48、d be assigned to each criterion. ideally, the evidence should come from experts and the relative weights from decision-makers. in practical risk management, options are evaluated in close cooperation between both experts and decision-makers.4. selection of risk management options: once the different

49、 options have been evaluated, a decision has to be made as to which options are selected and which are rejected. in most cases trade-offs have to be made between different concerns译文风险管理作者:ter je aven资料來源:系列可靠性工程、风险技术体系第175-198页 本章冋顾和讨论的基本问题和风险管理的原则，包括:风险可接受性（耐受性）减少风险和alarp原则警示和预防原则并提出了案例研究，显示在实际管理屮

50、这些问题和原则的重要性，我们仔 细看一下，让我们简单谈谈风险管理的一些基本特征。风险管理概论风险管理的口的是采取一些措施进而确保一些活动可能造成的有害后果的 行为、环境、和正在运作的资产，以及涉及到的平衡关系，特别是风险和成木。 风险管理包括这些措施，以避免其造成的危险，并减少潜在风险，如核能，石 油和天然气行业，风险管理是基于规范制度，其屮详细的要求是关于制度的运 作已逐渐被取代为一个更加重要目标的制度，这里的重点是如何实现这个目标 的手段。风险管理是一个口标导向制度的组成部分。人们承认，风险不能被消除， 但可以被预测到。现在有一个巨大的动力，作为一个整体在各个行业和社会中 实施风险管理的行

51、业这是风险管理合适的框架，它冇很高的期累实现高水平的 性能。风险管理涉及到实现增益和损失最小化机会之间适当的平衡，这是一个良 好的管理实践中不可或缺的组成部分，是良好公司治理的基本要索。这是一个 反复的过程，当按顺序进行，可能导致决策水平的不断提高，促进性能组成的 彳、断提高。为了支持决策方面设计和运作，进行风险分析。它们包括危害和威胁，成 因分析，结果分析和风险描述鉴定，得岀结果，然后进行评估，整体分析和评 估被称为风险评估。其次是风险评估风险处理，这是一个过程，涉及发展和实 施措施进行修改的风险，包括旨在避免措施，减少（“优化”），转让，或持续风 险。风险转移意味着分享与另一方的利益或损失与风险。它通常是通过保险生 效。风险管理涵盖了所有的方向和协调的组织方而的风险控制活动。这个术语 是在iso / iec指南 73 行（2002）o在许多企业，风险管理任务分为三个主要类别：战略风险，财务风险和操 作风险。战略风险方而，例如包括兼并和收购的因素，这对于企业的长期战略 和计划有重要，金融风险包括企业的财务