XXXX年加拿大油菜生产与产量分析

1、2010 Canola Production Outlook2010年加拿大油菜生产与产量分析March, 20102010年3月Jingzhou, China中国荆州 Ruojun WangChina Feed Industry Consultant中国饲料工业顾问 Canola Council of Canada加拿大双低油菜理事会The Canadian Canola Industry is加拿大双低油菜籽行业Innovative.革故鼎新Resilient.灵活应变Determined to create superior value and a healthier world.立志创

2、造卓越价值和更加健康的世界。World Vegetable Oil Usage全世界植物油的使用Canola is the third most widely used vegetable oil in the world.双低菜籽油是世界上排名第三的使用最广泛的植物油。椰子棕榈大豆油菜籽葵花籽花生棉籽橄榄World Canola/Rapeseed Production (07-08)世界双低油菜/油菜籽产量（07-08年）Canada is responsible for 75% of canola trade加拿大承担了世界75%的双低油菜籽贸易量。澳洲印度其他中国美国加拿大乌克兰俄罗斯欧

3、盟27国南非Canola Facts双低油菜籽简介 2nd largest crop in Canada 加拿大第二大农作物 Most valuable cropping choice in Western Canada加拿大西部最有价值的种植选择 Seed exports on the rise油菜籽出口增长 Domestic crush expanding国内压榨量增加 Canola the healthy oil双低菜籽油健康的油Canola vs. Wheat双低油菜籽 vs. 小麦草原农场现金收入价值比较：小麦（硬粒小麦除外）vs. 双低油菜籽（十万美元） 双底油菜籽 小麦 红线（双

4、低油菜） 蓝线（小麦） Canadian Canola Situation 07/08-08/0907/08-08/09年加拿大双低油菜籽概况 Production: 12.6 -12.643mln mt产量：1260-1264.3万吨 Seed exports: 5.7 -7.9081mln mt油菜籽出口：570-790.81万吨 Seed exports by destination:各目的地国油菜籽出口量： Japan (2.0-2.0656), Mexico (1.3-1.1625), China (0.7-2.8719), U.S.A. (0.9-0.764), Pakistan

5、(0.2-0.385), U.A.E. (0.3-0.5295)Bangladesh（0-0.1292）日本（200-206.56万吨），墨西哥（130-116.25万吨），中国（70-287.19万吨），美国（90-76.4万吨），巴基斯坦（20-38.5万吨），阿联酋（30-52.95万吨），孟加拉国（0-12.92万吨）Canadian Canola Situation 07/08-08/0907/08-08/09年加拿大双低油菜籽概况 Crush: 4.1 -4.656mln mt seed 压榨用量：410-465.6万吨油菜籽Oil exports: 1.3 -1.5427mln

6、mt oil油出口量：130-154.27万吨 US 0.9281-1.0297, China 0.249-0.3952 美国92.81-102.97万吨，中国24.9-39.52万吨 (香港地区18700-25300t、台湾地区=12100-13000t，南韩=34100-36600t)Meal Exports 1.9-1.861 mlm mt meal油菜籽粕粉出口量：190-186.1万吨 US 1.8-1.766 mlnt,Iceland10200t, Mexico78300t， ChineseTaiwan2300t 美国180-176.6万吨，冰岛10200吨，墨西哥78300吨，中

7、国台湾地区2300吨， 中国大陆过去无进口，2009-2010会有一些尝试性的大量进口Canola Supply/Disposition双低油菜籽供应/处理Production years 年份年份Production产量产量Exports出口出口Crush压榨压榨加拿大双低菜籽生产预期For 2009-10, exports are projected to be the second highest on record, although down12% from the record set in 2008-09.2009-1010作物年度，出口将是历史上的次高记录，比2008-2009

8、年度的最高记录会低12%Domestic crush is forecast to rise due to increased domestic crushing capacity.因为国内压榨能力的扩大，国内压制预期会增加Carry-out stocks are forecast to be similar to the previous year, with the average pricedown more than 10%.期末库存与上一年度相似，但平均价格会降低10%For 2010-11, seeded area is projected to increase from 200

9、9-10, but production and supply are forecast to decline marginally due to lower yields.2010-2011年度，与2009-2010年度相比，种植面积会增加，但产量和供应因为单产降低会略有降低 Domestic crush is forecast to rise to a record 5.5 Mt due to expanded crush capacity and increased demand for oil and meal. 因国内压榨能力以及对菜粕和菜油需求的增加，国内压榨预计增加到550万吨的

10、历史水平Exports are expected to decline due to increased domestic use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline significantly因国内使用数量增加，出口量预计降低，期末库存预计大幅降低. Prices are expected to decline slightly due to weaker world vegoil prices.因世界植物油价格偏弱，价格预计稍有降低加拿大菜籽出口历史Seed Exports (Historic)Canadian Canola Seed Exp

11、ortsCrop Year - August 1st to July 31stSource: Cereals & Oilseeds Review - Statistics Canada & Canadian Grain Commission(000 Tonnes) 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 Bangladesh - - - 13.3 11.3 6.1 103.4 94.4 95.7 129.2 China 1211.1 1889.6 213.5 - 401.1 275.0 614.4

12、873.4 659.3 2871.9 Europe 0.5 - 2.1 1.2 7.6 0.2 - - - - Japan1800.8 1874.0 1589.5 1562.0 1675.0 1746.0 1957.8 1960.8 2084.4 2065.6 Mexico 570.1 846.0 631.1 450.4 1067.8 944.1 1273.9 899.7 1278.4 1162.5 Pakistan - - - 172.7 274.2 4.0 590.1 548.8 222.8 385.0 Turkey - - - - - - 53.9 28.9 51.9 U.A.E. -

13、- - - - - 181.6 281.7 347.9 529.9 U.S.A. 280.0 248.8 87.6 194.8 317.4 430.1 616.6 669.7 920.7 764.0 Others 21.8 - 7.9 173.9 - 10.9 19.8 77.3 - - TOTAL3885.0 4859.0 2524.0 2394.4 3754.4 3412.4 5411.5 5434.7 5661.1 7908.1Canola *100 Ha年度年度 种植种植 收获收获 产量产量 生产生产 进口进口 总供应总供应 出口出口 食品食品 饲料饲料 国内国内 库存库存 价格价格

14、面积面积 面积面积 t/ha *1000 t 千吨千吨 $/T2007-2008 6,367 6,277 1.52 9,529 179 11,490 5,661 4,144 108 4,301 1,528 5532008-2009f 6,540 6,494 1.95 12,643 90 14,260 7,000 4,275 340 4,660 2,600 450-5002008-2009 6,540 6,494 1.95 12,643 121 14,225 7,908 4,280 329 4,656 1,661 4672009-2010f 6,066 5,975 1.70 10,150 200

15、 12,950 6,500 5,500 303 5,850 600 450-550 09J2009-2010f 6,556 6,105 1.94 11,825 150 13,636 7,000 4,500 436 4,986 1,650 390-440 10M 2010-2011f 6,800 6,680 1.74 11,600 125 13,375 6,500 5,500 427 5,975 900 350-450作物年度为8月到来年7月黑胫病事件的现况1- China issued a quarantine order in November 2009 for canola imports

16、 requiring that they must be free of stem canker (Leptosphaeria maculans) which has not been reported in China. 中国政府2009年11月就双低菜籽的进口颁布检疫法令，要求不含有国内未报告的黑茎病病菌（ Leptosphaeria maculans ,仅报道有弱毒种Leptosphaeria biglobosa，无强毒种L. maculans ，刘胜毅等2007）2 - For the 2009 crop, China agreed to a “transition” year whi

17、ch allows canola shipments that are positive for L. maculans to discharge at crushing plants in non-rapeseed growing zones where there is no risk of blackleg entering the Chinese rapeseed. In rapeseed growing zones only canola shipments that test negative for L. maculans are allowed to discharge at

18、CIQ approved plants. 对于2009年度生产的双低菜籽，中国同意作为过渡年，允许Leptosphaeria maculans 检测阳性的双低菜籽货物在黑茎病不会造成中国油菜染病风险的非油菜产区的压榨厂卸货。而在油菜生产区，仅允许在经CIQ许可的压榨厂卸载Leptosphaeria maculans 检测阴性的双低菜籽货物。 黑胫病事件的现况3. Canada has L. maculans in canola, but management practices and resistant varieties keep this plant disease at very lo

19、w levels and crop losses rarely occur. Over the last ten years Canada has sent over 10 million tonnes of canola to China and there are no reports of L. maculans in Chinese rapeseed. In addition, the seed exported to China is crushed. This means the seed is no longer viable and the crushing temperatu

20、res will also destroy any of the L. maculans on the seed. Therefore there is negligible risk to the Chinese rapeseed crop. 加拿大双低菜籽中有Leptosphaeria maculans ，但通过管理措施及抗性品种确保此植物病害在最低水平且罕见减产问题。在过去10年里，加拿大想中国出口1000万吨双低菜籽，而在中国油菜尚未报告Leptosphaeria maculans引起的黑胫病。另外出口的菜籽仅用于压榨目的，通过压榨灭活而压榨温度会种子中存在的任何Leptosphaer

21、ia maculans并菌，所以对中国油菜的风险甚微。4. Canada and China are continuing discussions on this issue to ensure that canola trade continues while protecting the Chinese rapeseed crop. We need to look at a risk based approach which would minimize the risk to China. Some of the factors that should be considered are

22、 the distance to rapeseed fields, direct transfer from the vessel to the crushing plant and storage and good sanitary practises around crushing plants. Under these circumstances the risk to Chinese rapeseed would be negligible.加拿大和中国对此事据需商谈，确保双低菜籽贸易持续以及保护中国油菜生产。我们需要寻找以风险为基础的措施最大限度地减少对中国油菜的风险。可以考虑的一些

23、因素包括：距离油菜田的距离；直接将菜籽从船舶卸载到压榨厂；压榨厂周边采取良好的卫生措施。在采取上述措施情况下， Leptosphaeria maculans造成中国油菜发生黑胫病的风险甚微。5. Canada is interested in conducting research projects in both China and Canada to further understand L. maculans and the risk to Chinese rapeseed and will be discussing potential projects with the Oil Cr

24、ops Institute of CAAS in early April.加拿大希望在中国和加拿大进一步了解Leptosphaeria maculans及其对中国油菜的风险进行研究，在4月上旬与中国农科院油料作物研究所就可能的研究项目进行商谈。黑胫病事件的现况Since November 15, 2009, limited deliveries have resumed, utilizing the two crushing locations approved by China to receive blackleg-positive canola.自2009年11月15日以来，双低菜籽向中

25、国的交运数量恢复有限，目前中国有两个可以接受黑胫病阳性货物的压榨厂For the 2009-10, crop year to date (August 1, 2009 - January 31, 2010), Canada shipped 1.2 million tonnes of canola to China. Of this amount, over 1 million tonnes was delivered prior to the November 15 quarantine order. 2009-2010年度截止目前（2009年8月1日起），加拿大出口中国菜籽约125万吨，其中

26、超过100万吨是11月15日新建议令发布之前发货的Since November 15, exporters have delivered volumes which were delayed when the quarantine order was put in place. This volume was contracted prior to November 15th As the remaining deferred volumes are delivered, exporters will look to conduct new business with China.11月15日

27、以来，出口商交运了因检疫发布所推迟的发货。这些货物是在11月15日前签订的合同。鉴于剩余合同已交运，出口商与中国会达成新的商务交易Canola vs. Rapeseed双低油菜籽vs.普通油菜籽 Canola Definition 双低油菜籽定义 Less than 2% erucic acid in the oil 双低油菜籽油中芥酸含量低于2%- Less than 12 micromoles glucosinolates in the meal- 双低油菜籽粕粉中硫甙含量低于12mol/gCanola oil is gaining acceptance双低菜籽油得到越来越多的认可Ming

28、 Tsai:“Canola Oil is extremely versatile. Its light texture and high heat tolerance make it an ideal kitchen staple”.厨师Ming Tsai说：“双低菜籽油用途非常广泛，它质地轻，耐高温，是理想的厨房必备品。”FDA Health Claim approved October 6, 20062006年10月6日批准的FDA健康声明“Limited and not conclusive scientific evidence suggests that eating about 1

29、 1/2 tablespoons (19 grams) of canola oil daily may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease due to the unsaturated fat content in canola oil. To achieve this possible benefit, canola oil is to replace a similar amount of saturated fat and not increase the total number of calories you eat in a day.

30、 One serving of this product contains x grams of canola oil.” “有限且不确凿的科学证据表明每天食用约一勺半（19克）双低菜籽油可以降低患冠心病的风险，因为其中含有不饱和脂肪成分。为了获得这种可能存在的益处，可以用双低菜籽油代替等量的饱和脂肪而不增加一天当中摄入的卡路里总量。本产品每份含有x克双低菜籽油。”Future looks very bright!未来前景光明！2015 Plan2015年计划ElementElement内容内容2006 2006 2015 Target2015 Target20152015年目标年目标Prod

31、uction产量Acres耕地Yield每英亩产量9.1 million tonnes 910万吨13 million1300万吨32 bu/acre32蒲式耳/英亩15 million tonnes1500万吨30% increase (17 million)增加30%（1700万英亩）35% increase (40.5 bu/acre)增加35%（40.5蒲式耳/英亩）Oil content含油量42.5% average平均42.5%45% average平均45%Classic to计划与完 Designer 成比率Ratio90/1075/25Meal菜籽粕2000 kcals/k

32、g 2000千卡/公斤energy content(poultry)能量含量（家禽饲料）10% increase 增加10%(90% of soybean meal energy level)相当于豆粕能量水平的90%2015 Plan: Exports and Crush2015年计划：出口和压榨ElementElement 内容内容2006 2006 2015 Target2015 Target20152015年目标年目标Export Seed出口油菜籽Japan日本Mexico墨西哥US美国EU欧盟Other (Pakistan, China, etc.)其他（巴基斯坦，中国等） 5.2

33、 million tonnes 520万吨 2.00 million tonnes200万吨1.20 million tonnes120万吨0.50 million tonnes 50万吨0.00 million tonnes 01.50 million tonnes 150万吨7.5 million tonnes750万吨2.00 million tonnes200万吨1.50 million tonnes150万吨1.00 million tonnes100万吨1.00 million tonnes100万吨2.00 million tonnes200万吨Domestic Crush国内压

34、榨 Biodiesel (domestic) 生物柴油（国内）Biodiesel (export oil) 生物柴油（出口） Food (domestic & export)食品（国内&出口）3.7 million tonnes370万吨0.05 million tonnes5万吨0.25 million tonnes25万吨3.40 million tonnes340万吨7.5 million tonnes750万吨2.00 million tonnes200万吨0.50 million tonnes50万吨5.00 million tonnes500万吨Challenges

35、问题与挑战What we need to achieve our 2015 goals:为实现2015年目标我们需要：Continued investment by the grain companies to handle canola efficiently谷物公司继续投资以高效处理双低油菜籽Larger domestic crushing capacity更大的国内压榨能力Life science companies to invest in better quality seeds and crop inputs生命科学公司投资研发更优质的油菜籽和农作物投入Research on he

36、alth benefits of canola开展关于双低油菜籽有益健康的研究Improved meal quality - energy content for poultry改善菜籽粕品质提高家禽饲料中的能量含量Yields are Improving产量提高Better varieties. Better quality of seed.品种更多，质量更好的油菜籽。Increasing Crush Capacity in Canada加拿大压榨能力增长 Increasing capacity from 4.4 mln MT to 6.6 mln MT 压榨能力由440万吨增长至660万吨

37、 Three more crushing plants being built in Saskatchewan 萨斯喀彻温省新建了三座压榨厂Research on Human Health人类健康研究Canola Product Research Fund卡诺拉产品研究基金卡诺拉产品研究基金 Inflammation 各种炎症 Insulin resistance 胰岛素抵抗 Glycemic index 升糖指数Increase Meal Consumption增加菜籽粕粉消费量2009 Year of the Ox = Year of Canola Meal2009牛年，就是双低油菜籽粕粉

38、之年。ONE MORE LITREperperCOWDAY每头牛每天多产1升奶U.S. States using Canadian Canola Meal (35,000t) in 2007/0807/08年美国使用加拿大双低油菜籽粕粉情况（多于35000吨）Ag Commodity Research 2008262728293031320905101010201105111511251203SBMCanola Meal挤奶日期乳产量, kg/d始始图. 1 用含加拿大双低菜粕和豆粕 TMR饲养奶牛的产奶量变化王若军等2007，北京三元绿荷内蒙古农业大学 田丰 阎素梅，2009 1.瘤胃降解率的试验结果表明，加拿大双低油菜籽粕的蛋白质和干物质在瘤胃内的有效降解率分别为59.06%、55.17%。 2.瘤胃发酵的试验结果表明，在高蛋白（10.5）和低蛋白（8.5）日粮条件下用加拿大双低油菜籽粕替代豆粕、棉籽粕，对奶牛瘤胃液pH值、BCP含量和VFA含量均无显著的影响；对瘤胃氨氮浓度有显著(P0.05)或趋于显著(P0.05)，与对照组相比，菜籽粕组的平均乳脂量、乳蛋白量显著增加(P0.05)。 4.低蛋白日粮的饲养试验结果表明，在日粮中蛋白含量为12.5时，用2.5加拿大双低油菜籽