土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响

1、土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响摘 要近几年来，我国经济高速发展，房地产市场也繁荣发展。政府从土地出让和相关税收中获得了巨大的财政收益，其出台的一系列优惠政策又间接促进了房地产投资市场的进一步扩大。一些经济相对发达、公共服务水平较高的城市，人们对房屋的需求急剧扩张，房价一路飙升。因此本文利用面板数据模型从定性和定量角度分析了土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响，实证部分则分别从全国和区域两个层面进行了研究，对结果进行分析，并以此为依据有针对性的提出政策建议，引导房地产业健康发展。首先，阐述了土地财政的概念，分析土地出让价格与房价关系的四象限模型以及房地产税收资本化模型。随后阐述了 Tiebou

2、t 模型以及 Oates、Hamilton 和 Fischel对该模型的扩展研究，并在此基础上建立模型，对公共品的资本化过程进行推导。其次，分析我国房地产业、土地财政和地方公共支出的基本现状，发现我国房地产价格、土地出让金、土地相关税收和地方公共支出均稳步上升且存在区域差异性。描述了土地财政及公共支出与房价的波动特征，两者均与房价存在正相关关系。再次，利用 2002-2012 年我国 30 个省市自治区的数据构建面板模型，分别从全国和区域两个层面上探讨了土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响，土地出让收入和地方公共支出始终与房价正相关，土地相关税收与房价负相关。最后，根据实证研究结果，并结合我国现

3、阶段的实际情况，提出合理可行的政策建议。关键词：土地财政；地方公共支出；房价；面板数据模型AbstractIn recent years, the real estate market has a great prosperity in our country with therapid economic development .The government gets huge financial income from land-related taxes and introduces a series of preferential policies which indirectly c

4、ontribute tothe further expansion of the real estate investment market. Since the dramatic increase indemand for house, the real estate also has rapid rise in some cities which has relativelydeveloped economy and high level of public services .This study analyzes the impacts ofland finance and local

5、 public expenditure on real estate price from qualitative andquantitative view by using panel data analysis. It also makes an analysis and briefcomment on the results and reasons from the national and regional levels in the empiricalpart. Finally, the study put forward policy recommendations in orde

6、r to promote thehealthy development of real estate industry.First of all, the article introduces the concept of land finance and analyzes thefour-quadrant model between land prices and housing prices and real estate taxcapitalization model. Then it elaborates the Tiebout model and extension study of

7、 Tieboutmodel by Oates and Hamilton. Basing on this model, it deduces the process ofcapitalization of public goods.Secondly, the article shows the basic status of the real estate price, land finance andlocal public expenditure, founding that real estate prices, land income, land-related taxesand loc

8、al public expenditures are rising steadily and there are regional differences. Itdescribes the fluctuation characteristics of land finance , public spending and the realestate prices,proving a positive relationship with the house prices.Thirdly, the study constructs a panel data by using 30 provinci

9、al panel data from 2002to 2012 and discusses the influence of land income and local public spending on houseprices from the national and regional aspects. Land income and local public spending arealways positively correlated with housing prices, while land-related taxes has a negativecorrelation wit

10、h the real estate price.Finally, according to the empirical results, the article proposes reasonable and feasiblepolicy recommendations combining with the current situation of the real estate andeconomy in China.Keywords: land finance; local public expenditure; real estate price; panel data analysis

11、 目录摘要ABSTRACT第1章绪论1.1研究背景及研究意义1.1.1研究背景1.1.2研究意义1.2国内外研究现状及评述1.2.1国外研究现状1.2.2国内研究现状1.2.3国内外文献评述1.3研究内容与方法1.3.1研究内容1.3.2研究方法第2章相关理论及模型2.1土地财政2.1.1土地财政概念2.1.2土地出让价格和房价互动机理2.1.3房地产税收和房价互动机理2.2公共品供给理论2.2.1 Tiebout模型2.2.2 Oates对Tiebout模型的扩展2.2.3 Hamilton对Tiebout模型的扩展2.2.4 Fischel对Tiebout模型下的再分区效率研究2

12、.2.5地方公共品对房价的影响-基十公共品资本化的分析2.3本章小结第3章土地财政及地方公共支出与房价基本情况3.1我国房地产业基本情况3.1.1房地产业发展历程3.1.2全国房价现状3.1.3区域房价现状3.2土地财政基本情况3.2.1土地出让收入现状3.2.2土地相天祝收现状3.3地方公共支出基本情况3.3.1全国地方公共支出现状3.3.2区域地方公共支出现状3.4土地财政及地方公共支出与房价波动基本特征描述3.4.1全国层面上3.4.2区域层面上3.5本章小结第4章土地财政及地方公共支出与房价关系全国性实证分析4.1变量选取4.2模型构建4.3实证分析4.3.1单位根检验4.3.2协整检验4.3.3回归结果分析4.4实证分析结果4.5本章小结第5章土地财政及地方公共支出与房价关