Gold Survey 2010 Presentation 2010全球黄金市场调研

1、Gold Survey 2010Philip KlapwijkExecutive Chairman, GFMS Ltd.London, 14th April 2010GFMS gratefully acknowledge the generoussupport from the following companies for thisyears Gold Survey and its two UWorld Gold Councilwww.IBKC Gold CorporationCommerzbank GlobalPrecious MetalsDubai Multi CommoditiesCe

2、ntreScotiaMocattaJohnson MValcambi saJPMorgan Chase BINTL Commodities, INC.Tanaka Precious Metals GroupBarrick Gold CLarge and experienced team of 25 Analysts + Consultants.Not just desk-based: Over 300 companies and organisations in36 countries visited by our personnel in the last 12 months.Annual

3、Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium and Copper Surveys.Also, weekly, monthly, quarterly & bi-annual reports plusforecasts and a wide range of consultancy services across allthe precious and base metals & steel.The GFMS Groups Unique ResearchCapabilities & ProgrammePresentation Outline

4、Gold PricesSupplyDemandOutlookUS Dollar Gold PriceWeekly AveragesDOLLARAverageIntra-YearYear-on-Year2008871.962.7%25.4%2009972.3524.4%11.5%Q1 20101,109.12-0.5%22.1%US$/oz26-week moving averageSource: GFMS; Thomson ReutersEuro Gold PriceWeekly AveragesEuro/ozEUROAverageIntra-YearYear-on-Year2008593.0

5、96.9%17.0%2009696.9421.5%17.5%Q1 2010802.516.1%15.0%26-week moving averageSource: GFMS; Thomson ReutersEuro/kgUS$/ozRupee 10g/gGold Prices in Different CurrenciesIndexed Daily SeriesSource: GFMS; Thomson ReutersReal and Nominal Gold Prices(real US$ price in constant 2009 terms)New record nominalannu

6、al average reached in2009, but in real termstodays prices are still wellshort of historical peaks.1980 average: $1,600Real PriceNominal PriceSource: GFMS, Thomson ReutersSupply20082009y-o-yMine production2,4092,5726.8%Official sector sales23241-82.2%Old scrap supply1,3161,67427.2%TOTAL SUPPLY3,9574,

7、2878.3%Gold Supply in 2009Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)GFMS Mine Supply DatabaseOver 100 companies analysed on a quarterly basis production/costs/corporate activityOver 300 mines recorded on an annual basis production/costs/reserves/gradeOver 320 projects projected production profile, start-update

8、, capex, reserves, resourcesInformal mine production measured on a country-by-country basisCosts measured at 70% of Western World gold productionBottom-up cost analysis methodology to assess $/tonnemining, ore processing and on-site administration costs,plus benchmarking of fuel, power, labour produ

9、ctivity andother key inputsGlobal analysis and forecasting of mine supply, breakdownof industry cost structures and trends, benchmarkingGold Mine Production2009 up 163tor 6.8% yoyLatin AmericaNorth AmericaSouth AfricaSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)OtherChinaAustraliaArgentinaGhanaMine Production: Wi

10、nners and Losers(Figures represent year-on-year change, i.e. 2009 less 2008)IndonesiaChinaSouth UnitedAfrica StatesSource: GFMSRussiaMongoliaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaSouth AfricaOtherMajor Western World Mines Cash Costs(in money-of-the-day terms)Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)AustraliaYear-on-Year Ch

11、anges to Cash Costs464Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)478+10+12+6+5+5+3-4-12+21-332009 vs 2008Mine Production163 tonne increase equal to 6.8% y-o-y in 2009; the firstannual increase for three years.Strong increases from a suite of new projects and operatingmines. Strong country gains in Indonesia, Ch

12、ina, Russia,Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.All regions posted growth, except for North America. Twolargest falls at the mine level were seen in the UnitedStates.US dollar denominated total cash costs increased by anaverage 3%, or $14/oz, to $478/oz in 2009.GFMS proprietary All-In Costs measure increas

13、ed by 3.9%to $717/oz.Above-Ground Stocks of Gold, end-2009Above-ground Stocks,end 2009 = 166,000tGold is not “consumed” like most commodities; stocks can beavailable at the right priceSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Supply from Scrap, Hedging & Official SalesFlat trend since 2000?Net Official Sec

14、tor SalesHedging SupplyScrapSecular increase in supply 1987-99Source: GFMSChange in Supply from Above-Ground Stocks2009 compared to 2008Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Regional Changes in Scrap Supply2009 compared to 2008Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Jewellery Fabrication & Scrap SupplySource: G

15、FMS (Gold Survey 2010)Jewellery FabricationScrap SupplyAbove-Ground Jewellery Stocks by Region,end-2009Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)CBGA and Other Gold SalesOtherCBGA“CBGA” refers to signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement“Other” refers to all other countriesSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)D

16、emand20082009y-o-yFabricationJewellery2,1931,759-19.8%Other696658-5.4%Total Fabrication2,8892,417-16.3%Bar hoarding386187-51.6%Net producer de-hedging352254-27.8%Implied net investment3301,429332.9%TOTAL DEMAND3,9574,2878.3%Gold Demand in 2009Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)World Gold FabricationDeve

17、loping CountriesIndustrialised Countries2009 down 472tor 16% yoySource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)IndianS-CEuropeEastAsiaOtherJewellery Fabrication: Winners and Losers(Figures represent year-on-year change, i.e. 2009 less 2008)LatinAmericaNorthAmericaMiddleEastSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Fabrication

18、 Demand in 2009A sharp decline in jewellery demand was the principal driverof the 16% or 472t fall in fabrication demand to 2,417 t.Full year jewellery fabrication dropped by 20% or 434tonnes, with higher gold prices and the economic downturnthe primary reasons for the fall.Other fabrication fell by

19、 just 5.4% y-o-y to 658 tonnes in2009. However, with all coins excluded, the drop reaches15%.Electronics demand dropped by16%, largely due to theeconomic crisis, particularly in the first half.GFMS Hedging AnalysisGFMS enter all hedging transactions into our hedgingdatabase and the Brady Trinity sys

20、tem.Trades are input on a quarterly basis by company,instrument, year of expiry and currency.Using detailed market data, accurate deltas and othersensitivities are calculated.Comprehensive global hedge book analysis is publishedonce per quarter by GFMS, in association with SocitGnrale.Net Market Imp

21、act of Producer HedgingSupplyDemandSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)* outstanding forward sales, loans and net delta hedge against positionsOutstanding hedge book just236 tonnes at end-2009Total Accelerated Supply from Producer Hedging*Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Investment in 2009World Investment

22、(which includes the implied figure, barhoarding and all coins) nearly doubled in 2009 to over 1,900tonnes and reached an approximate value of $60 billion.The first few months of 2009 saw a record level of investmentdemand. Fears about financial stability and economicdepression triggered a wave of sa

23、fe haven buying, particularly inthe forms of gold ETFs and physical bullion products. After a summer lull, investor activity, especially in the OTC andfutures markets, picked up strongly from September onwards,primarily driven by a weaker dollar, higher price expectationsand growing concerns regardi

24、ng future trends in inflation. Thissurge in investment demand drove prices above $1,200, before aloss of momentum and some profit taking brought about a pricecorrection in the final weeks of 2009.World Investment*Value of WorldInvestment*World Investment is the sum of Implied net investment, bar hoa

25、rding and all coins & medalsSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Gold Exchange Traded FundsSource: Respective issuersAt 31/12/2009, 617t risefrom 31/12/08Non-commercial & non-reportable net positions in futures taken as proxy for investors positions.Source: CFTCInvestors positions in gold futures

26、in 2009(non-commercial & non-reportable positions in Comex & CBOT futures)Gold Price200720082009157k contracts177k contracts219k contractsAverage size of net “investor” long.2006 135k contractsEuropean & North AmericanRetail InvestmentEuropeNorth AmericaSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Pri

27、ce OutlookGold Supply 2008-2010FMine ProductionOfficial SectorScrapSource: GFMSSupply in 2010Mine Production forecast to increase this year but at aslower pace, just over 2%, compared to the nearly 7%year-on-year growth seen in 2009.Official Sales expected to recover in 2010, mainlydriven by 191 ton

28、nes on-market sales by the IMF.Disposals from current CBGA members to be subduedwhile other countries to be small scale net buyers.Scrap forecast to be lower year-on-year in first half buthigher in second half, with full year total little changed.Overall supply growth in 2010 to slow to perhapsaroun

29、d 5% compared to 2009s rapid 8% pace.Gold Demand 2008-2010FProducer De-HedgingOther Fabrication*World Investment is sum of Implied Net Investment, Bar Hoarding and all Coins & MedalsSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)JewelleryDemand in 2010In spite of a reasonable first quarter, for full year 2010je

30、wellery demand will recover only modestly, due tohigher prices and constrained budgets, especially in lightof continued economic weakness in many countries.Concentrated buying expected on price dips.Other fabrication set to recover in 2010, due to growthin the electronics sector.Prospects for furthe

31、r de-hedging are limited by the nowvery low outstanding producer hedgebook.Investor interest in gold is expected to remain strongthroughout this year and potentially well into 2011.Investment in 2010?Backdrop for investment in 2010 will remain positive as long as: Zero to negative real short term in

32、terest rates continue in all majorcurrencies. Concerns over sovereign debt increase and crisis spreads fromEurope to United States. Inflation expectations grow, especially in the US with its expected$1.6 trillion FY 2010 deficit and probable debt monetization. Notwithstanding the above, risk may be

33、growing of short-term andtemporary sell-off by investors if fears of double-dip triggerliquidations across all risky assets.Longer-term, gold price vulnerability is rising due to investmentsexceptionally high share of demand and the increasing size ofinvestors near-market bullion stocks.World Invest

34、ment* & Fabrication (excluding all coins)(1980-2010F)FabricationWorld Investment*World Investment = the sum of implied investment, bar hoarding and all coinsSource: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010)Price OutlookInvestors will remain the principal driver of prices this year, with a breachof $1,300 in the s

35、econd half still a possibility, although perhaps no longer astrong probability.In the short term, prices could retrace from current levels; the mid$1,000s are a possible low over the next three months, with prices in thatregion most likely to be eventually pushed up again by bargain hunting andstock

36、 replenishment.Supply expected to rise fairly strongly in 2010, with growth in mineproduction, and, from a very low base, official sector sales, the latter alsoexpected to be concentrated in the second half. Scrap supply has fallenyear-to-date but should recover in the latter part of 2010 basis high

37、er priceconditions. These will also mean that there is only a moderate recovery infabrication demand for the calendar year as a whole.Imbalances in the market suggest that at some point the gold price willhave to retreat. Nevertheless, this is most unlikely to occur on a secularbasis in 2010 and pot

38、entially not until well into 2011 given current economicconditions, which in an underlying sense still favour gold investment.GFMS Gold Price Forecast for 2010Source: GFMSForecast Average: $1,170Forecast Range: $1,050-$1,300GFMS Forthcoming Events22 April 2010: Platinum & Palladium Survey 201027

39、 May 2010: World Silver Survey 2010September 2010: Gold Survey 2010 Update 1DisclaimerThe information and opinions contained in this presentation havebeen obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but norepresentation or warranty, express or implied, is made that suchinformation is accurate or complete and it should not be reliedupon as such. This presentation does not purport to make anyrecommendation or provide investment advice to the effect thatany