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1、I.Underwriting Income一.保险业务收入 1.Premium income 1.保费收入 2.Reinsurance premium income 2.分保费收入 3.Subrogation recovery income 3.追偿款收入II.Underwriting Expenses二.保险业务支出 5.Claims Paid 5.赔款支出 less: Claim recoverable from reinsurer 减:摊回分保赔款 6.Reinsurance premium ceded 6.分出保费 7.Reinsurance claim paid 7.分保赔偿支出 8

2、.Reinsurance commission paid 8.分保费用支出 9.Commission paid 9.手续费支出 11.Business tax and surcharges 11.营业税金及附加 12.Operation expenses 12.营业费用 less: reinsurance commission received 减:摊回分保费用 13.Insurance security fund contribution 13.提取保险保障基金III.Reserves Movement三.准备金提转差 1.Provisions for outstanding claims

3、reserve end of the year 1.提存未决赔款准备金 including: provision for IBNR reserve end of the year 其中:提存已发生未报告责任准备金 Less: outstanding claims reserve beginning of the year 减:转回未决赔款准备金 including:IBNR reserve beginning of the year 其中:转回已发生未报告责任准备金 2.Provision for unearned premium reserve end of the year 2.提存未到期

4、责任准备金 Less: unearned premium reserve beginning of the year 减:转回未到期责任准备金 3.Provision for long term policy reserve end of the year 3.提存长期责任准备金 Less: long term policy reserve beginning of the year 减:转回长期责任准备金 IV.Underwriting Profit四.承保利润 Add: investment income 加:投资收益 Interest income 利息收入 Other incomes

5、其他收入 Foreign exchange gain/losses 汇兑收益 Less: interest expenses paid 减:利息支出 Other expenses 其他支出V.Operation Result五.营业利润 Add: Non-operating income 加:营业外收入 less:Non-operating expenses 减:营业外支出VI.Profit before tax六.利润总额 less: Income tax 减:所得税VII.Net Profit七.净利润Earned Premium已赚保费General Claims综合赔款General

6、Expenses综合费用Underwriting Profit承保利润Loss Ratio 综合赔款率General Expenses Ratio综合费用率Combined Ratio综合成本率Notes备注The estimates are made on the basis of the current business network and new business network 根据现有业务机构和新增业务机构测算The estimates are made by reinsurance department of the head office由总公司分保部测算The calend

7、ar year loss ratios of non-motor business year 2007 to 2009 are expected to be 16%,18% and 20, the calendar year loss ratios of non-motor business in the following 2 years and those of motor business through 2007 and 2011 are expected to be 20%2007-2009年非车险简单赔付率为16%、18%、20,非车险后两年以及车险2007-2011年简单赔付率为

8、20the reinsurance cession ratios of non-motor business between 2007 to 2009 are expected to be 30 and 29. In the following 3 years, it will maintain at a level of 28%. No reinsurance cession for motor business. 非车险2007-2009年分出比例分别为30、29,此后三年维持在28;车险没有分出the reinsurance cession ratios of non-motor bus

9、iness between 2007 to 2009 are expected to be 30 and 29. In the following 3 years, it will maintain at a level of 29%. No reinsurance cession for motor business.非车险2007-2009年分出比例分别为30、29,此后三年维持在28;车险没有分出The calendar year loss ratios in 2007 and 2008 are expected to be 40% and 42%, and 44% through th

10、e year 2009 to 2011.预计2007、2008年简单赔付率为40、42%,2009-2011年为44%35% of the reinsurance premium written 分入保费的35%15% commission for non-motor business, 10% commission for motor business非车险平均手续费率15,车险平均手续费率105.5% of premium income保费收入的5.5Through year 2007 and 2011, the reinsurance commission received is 36%

11、 of reinsurance premium paid 2007-2011年摊回分保费用占分出保费比例为361% of retained premium自留保费的1%The loss ratios of non-motor business through year 2007-2011 are expected to be 29%,32%,34,36% and 38% respectively,while those of motor business are 60%.2007-2011年非车险综合赔付率分别为29%、32%、34、36%、38%,车险综合赔付率为60Provision ma

12、de in previous year 上年计提数For short-term non-motor business, 55% of retained premium is made; For motor business,85,60,57,53 and 53 of retained premium are made in line with the business progress. 非车险全部短期险,按自留保费55计提,车险按照业务进度分别为85、60、57、53、53provision made in the previous year 上年计提数Assumption: capital

13、 in foreign exchange is paid-in in the beginning of 2008, apply for foreign exchange settlement in the beginning of 2008 in an amount of 700 million. The capital in foreign exchange appreciate by 4% in both 2007 and 2008, and appreciate by 2% in 2009 and become stabilized thereafter. 假设外汇资本金2008年初到位

14、并假设年初申请结汇达7亿,外币资金2007年、2008年按4%升值,2009年升值2%,此后趋平资 产Assets流动资产:Current Assets 现金 Cash on hand 银行存款 Bank deposit 短期投资 Short-term investment 拆出资金 Money market placement 拆出资金 保户质押贷款 Loan to policyholder 应收利息 Interest receivable 应收保费 Premium receivable 应收分保账款 Receivable from reinsurer 应收款项小计 Sub-total of

15、 receivable 减:坏账准备 Less:provision for bad debts 应收款项净额 Net receivable 预付赔款 Claims payment on account 存出分保准备金 Deposit withheld on reinsurance 存出保证金 Refundable/deposited guarantee fund 其他应收款 Other receivables 材料物品 Materials and articles 低值易耗品 Low value consumables 待摊费用 Deferred and Prepaid expenses 待处

16、理流动资产净损失 Current assets net losses in suspense 一年内到期的长期债券投资 Long-term bond investment due within one year 其他流动资产 Other current assets流动资产合计Total Current Assets长期投资:Long-term investment: 长期股权投资 Long-term equity investments 长期证券投资 Long-term security investments 减:投资风险准备 Less:provision for investment r

17、isk 拨付所属资金 Funds to branches 长期贷款 Long-term loans 减:贷款呆账准备 Less: bad debt provision for loan principals 固定资产:Fixed assets: 固定资产原值 Fixed Assets at cost 减:累计折旧 Less:accumulated depreciation 固定资产净值 Fixed asset at net book value 在建工程 Fixed assets under construction 固定资产清理 Disposal of fixed assets 待处理固定资

18、产净损失 Fixed assets net losses in suspense固定资产合计Total Fixed Assets无形资产及其他资产:Intangible and other assets 无形资产 Intangible assets 长期待摊费用 Long-term deferred and prepaid expenses 存出资本保证金 Compulsory deposit on capital for regulatory purpose 抵债物资 Mortgaged assets 其他长期资产 Other long-term assets无形资产及其他资产合计Total

19、 Intangible and Other Assets资产总计Total Assets负债及所有者权益Liabilities and Shareholder's Equity流动负债:Current Liabilities: 短期借款 Short-term borrowings 拆入资金 Money market taking 拆入资金 应付手续费 Handling fees payable 应付佣金 Commission payable 应付分保账款 Payable to reinsurers 预收保费 Premium received in advance 预收分保赔款 Rein

20、surance claims received in advance 存入分保准备金 Withheld reinsurance deposit 存入保证金 Guarantee fund received 应付工资 Wages payable 应付福利费 Welfare payable 应付保户利差 Interest spread payable to policyholder 应付保户利差 应付利润 Dividend payable 应交税金 Taxes payable 其他应付款 Other payables 预提费用 Accrued expenses 未决赔款准备金 Outstanding

21、 claim reserves 其中:已发生未报告责任准备金 in which:IBNR reserve 未到期责任准备金 Unearned premium reserve 保户储金 Policyholders' deposit 一年内到期的长期负债 Long-term liability due within one year 其他流动负债 Other current liability 系统往来 Current account with the affiliated流动负债合计Total Current Liabilities长期负债:Long-term liabilities:

22、长期责任准备金 Long-term policy reserves 寿险责任准备金 Life insurance reserves 长期健康险责任准备金 Long-term health insurance reserves 保险保障基金 Insurance security fund contribution 长期借款 Long-term borrowings 长期应付款 Long-term payables 外币兑换 Foreign currencies exchange 住房周转金 Housing fund 其他长期负债 Other long term liabilities长期负债合计

23、Total Long-term Liabilities负 债 合 计Total Liabilities所有者权益:Shareholders' Equity 实收资本 Paid-up capital 上级拨入资金 Appropriation of Fund 资本公积 Capital reserve 其中:汇差调整 including:reserve for exchange rate variance 汇差调整 盈余公积 Surplus reserve 其中:公益金 including:common welfare fund 总准备金 General reserve总准备金 未分配利润

24、Retained profit 货币换算差额 Currency translation reserve货币换算差额所有者权益合计Total Shareholders' Equity负债及所有者权益总计Total Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityNon-Motor Business非车险Motor Business车险AttachmentXXX Insurance Company LimitedNotes to Business and Financial Forecasts with Increased Capital To the Bo

25、ard of Directors.Below please find the business and financial forecasts of XXX Insurance assuming increased capital is provided.1. AssumptionsThe following forecasts were based on five assumptions. 1) The Chinese insurance market maintains its current rate of growth; 2) Capital increase in the amoun

26、t of HK$1.5 billion is paid in by the beginning of Year 2008; 3) Eight branch companies are and will be opened in Year 2007; ten more branch companies in Year 2008; five more branch companies in Year 2009; branch openings will be basically completed in Year 20094) Motor insurance business is going t

27、o be underwritten in June 2007;5) The capital in foreign exchange will depreciate by 4% in both 2007 and 2008, by 2% in 2009 and stabilize after then.Additional assumptions will be mentioned in details in the following sub-sections.2. Gross Premium Income In estimating gross premium income for 2007

28、to 2009, an assumption is made that the increased capital is paid in at the beginning of 2008. Other estimates in these notes are also based on such assumption. (direct insurance premium + reinsurance premium written)In the past three years, gross premium income of the company has steadily increased

29、, from RMB 42.02 million Unless other specified, the currency referred in these Notes is RMB. in 2003 to 125.81 million in 2006, or growing by 199.41% which is much higher than the growth rate of national non-life insurance market in the same period. The company has established a fairly significant

30、business scale.Gross Premium Income 2003 to 2011E4130016160028107539436149442112581643259574202010000020000030000040000050000060000020032004200520062007E2008E2009E2010E2011EAssuming the increased capital is paid in at the beginning of 2008 and the company commences the motor insurance business in Ju

31、ne 2007, the gross premium income in 2007 is expected to be 413 million, a growth of 228.7% from that of 2006. In 2008, the business of the company will grow at an accelerated speed as the underwriting capacity is enhanced by the increased capital and the motor insurance gets to its full operation.

32、The gross premium income in 2008 is expected to be 1.616 billion, a growth of 291.28% from that of 2007. The following three years will see slower growth as the size of business gets bigger. The growth rates in 2009, 2010 and 2011 are expected to be 73.93%, 40.3% and 25.37% respectively. The slowed

33、down growth still maintains fairly strong momentum. The gross premium income in 2011 is expected to be 4.94421 billion, or 12 times greater than that of the year before the increased capital is paid-in (2007). As the gross premium income increases, the earned premium Earned Premium = gross premium i

34、ncome reinsurance premium ceded unearned premium reserve end of the year + unearned premium reserve beginning of the year that offsets current general expenses and current general claims also increases significantly. In estimating the earned premium, the following assumptions were made.1) The reinsu

35、rance cession ratios of non-motor business were assumed to be 30% and 29% respectively in 2007 and 2008 and maintain 28% in the following three years. No reinsurance cession is assumed for motor insurance business. 2) Non-motor business portfolio is relatively stable and balanced out through the yea

36、r. So the unearned premium reserve of non-motor business is provided for at 55% of retained premium. The unearned premium reserve of motor insurance is provide for at 85%, 60%, 57%, 53% and 53% of retained premium for 2007 through 2011 respectively as the business grows. Under the above assumptions,

37、 the earned premium of the company in 2007 through 2011 is as shown in the figure below. Earned Premium 2003-2011E8354530944140180819435816080481431552056111805000010000015000020000025000030000035000040000045000020032004200520062007E2008E2009E2010E2011EFrom the figure above, it is shown that the ear

38、ned premium enters in a fast growing period as the motor business commences operation in 2007. The additional paid-in capital in 2008 accelerates the growth of earned premium. The earned premium in 2008 is expected to be 835.45 million, or four times greater than that in 2007. By 2011, the earned pr

39、emium is expected to be 4.01808 billion, which is 25 times greater than before the paid-in of increased capital . 3. General Expenses Ratio General Expenses Ratio = General Expenses / Earned Premium, in which general expenses = operation cost + commission paid + reinsurance premium ceded + business

40、tax and associated charges + insurance security fund contribution reinsurance recovery The historical general expenses ratios during the period of 2003 to 2005 had been around 82%. The general expenses and earned premium had grown at similar rates. Compared to peers in the insurance industry, the ge

41、neral expenses ratio of the company is still high. This is mainly because the investments in the early stage of Shenzhen branch in 2003 and 2004. All the necessary infrastructure investments made in Shenzhen branch were quite significant while the business scale was relatively small so that the econ

42、omy of scale was not realized. Although the Shenzhen branch was transformed into a subsidiary in 2005, the growth of general expenses and business scale kept the same speed and thus the general expenses ratio stayed at the same level. This was due to the fact that the location of the head office had

43、 not been decided and the infrastructure investment of the company was not made yet.General Expenses Ratio 2003-2011E83.39%129.17%72.25%41.80%42.93%50.67%138.31%81.66%82.44%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%20032004200520062007E2008E2009E2010E2011EThe companys general expenses

44、 ratio in 2006 was 138.31%, increased significantly from that of the previous three years. The main reason was as follows. As the location of the companys head office was decided, investments in infrastructure were made gradually. Recruitment of professionals and talents and the reform of salaries a

45、nd compensations policies both demanded fairly significant investments. Four branch companies were set up during the year resulting in the increases in the operating expenses and personnel expenses. The change of location of the head office not only incurred the necessary relocation expenses, it als

46、o caused part of the long term expenses amortized of the Shenzhen branch to be expensed at once. All the above factors resulted in the sharp increase of general expenses ratio in 2006. As the company commences the operation of motor business in 2007, the business scale grew at a fast speed and as a

47、result, the general expenses ratio is expected to decrease to some extent. But it should be noted that the concentration of branch openings in 2007 will still keep the general expenses ratio at a high level of 129.17% because benefits and advantages of branch openings may not be reflected in the cur

48、rent year as expenses are incurred. As the business increases further after the increased capital is paid-in in 2008, the economy of scale of branches opened become evident and the general expenses ratio will decrease to around 72.25%. In the following three years, the continued growth of business a

49、nd economy of scale will result in further decrease of general expense ratio to 41.8% in 2011, or 87.37% lower than before the paid-in of increased capital . In summary, the general expenses ratio of the company will get to the average of developed and mature companies as the infrastructure and the

50、branch network gradually gets in place. The operation cost and commission paid are the main parts of general expenses. The operation cost increased gradually from 23.95% in 2003 to 51.74% in 2006. This was because the business volume of the company was fairly small despite of its fast growth and thu

51、s the economy of scale was not realized. As the company commenced motor business in 2007, both the volume and growth of business accelerated, resulting in the economy of scale. The operation costs ratio steadily decreased to 37.92% in 2007, or 13.82% lower than that in 2006. The increased capital in

52、 2008 will further enhance the growth of business volume, reducing the operation cost ratio to 23.35%, or 14.57% lower than that in 2007. In the following three years, as the business of the company keeps growing, the operation cost ratio will stabilize at around 20%, on par with the levels of matur

53、e companies. In terms of the commission ratio, it had increased to 9.13% in 2006 as the share of competitive business increased. After the company commenced the motor business in 2007, the average commission ratio kept grown to 13.17% though the share of motor business was and will be fairly small.

54、As the share of motor business increases since then, the average commission ratio has stabilized at around 11.7%, indicating that the commission ratio has been under control as the business grows. 23.95%43.40%51.74%37.92%4.21%5.98%30.81%19.58%19.34%20.76%23.35%9.13%8.29%11.62%11.65%11.73%11.86%13.17%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%20032004200520062007E2008E2009E2010E2011ECommission ratioOperation expense ratio4. Loss Ratio Loss Ratio = general claims/ earned premium, in which general claims is the total

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