Thenewfaceofhunger新地饥饿面孔

1、ThenewfaceofhungerGlobalfoodshortageshavetakeneveryonebysurprise.Whatistobedone?SAMAKEBAKARYsellsricefromwoodenbasinsatAbobotemarketinthenorthernsuburbsofAbidjaninC?ted'Ivoire.HepointstoabowlofbrokenThairicewhich,at400CFAfrancs(roughly$1)perkilogram,isthemostpopularvariety.Onagooddayheusedtosell

2、150kilos.Nowheisluckytosellhalfthat."Peopleaskthepriceandgoawaywithoutbuyinganything,"hecomplains.InearlyApriltheywentawayandrioted:twodaysofviolencepersuadedthegovernmenttopostponeplannedelections."Worldagriculturehasenteredanew,unsustainableandpoliticallyriskyperiod,"saysJoachi

3、mvonBraun,theheadoftheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)inWashington,DC.Toproveit,foodriotshaveeruptedincountriesallalongtheequator.InHaiti,protesterschanting"We'rehungry"forcedtheprimeministertoresign;24peoplewerekilledinriotsinCameroon;Egypt'spresidentorderedthearmyt

4、ostartbakingbread;thePhilippinesmadehoardingricepunishablebylifeimprisonment.aIt'sanexplosivesituationandthreatenspoliticalstability,"worriesJean-LouisBillon,presidentofC?ted'Ivoire'schamberofcommerce.Lastyearwheatpricesrose77%andrice16%(seechart1).Theseweresomeofthesharpestrisesinf

5、oodpricesever.Butthisyearthespeedofchangehasaccelerated.SinceJanuary,ricepriceshavesoared141%;thepriceofonevarietyofwheatshotup25%inaday.Some40kmoutsideAbidjan,MariamKone,whogrowssweetpotatoes,okraandmaizebutfeedsherfamilyonimportedrice,laments:"Riceisveryexpensive,butwedon'tknowwhy.”Thepri

6、cesmainlyreflectchangesindemandnotproblemsofsupply,suchasharvestfailure.ThechangesincludethegentleupwardpressurefrompeopleinChinaandIndiaeatingmoregrainandmeatastheygrowrichandthesudden,voraciousappetitesofwesternbiofuelsprogrammes,whichconvertcerealsintofuel.Thisyeartheshareofthemaize(corn)cropgoin

7、gintoethanolinAmericahasrisenandtheEuropeanUnionisimplementingitsownbiofuelstargets.Tomakemattersworse,morefebrilebehaviourseemstobeinfluencingmarkets:exportquotasbylargegrainproducers,rumoursofpanic-buyingbygrainimporters,moneyfromhedgefundslookingfornewmarkets.Suchshiftshavenotbeenmatchedbycompara

8、blechangesonthefarm.Thisispartlybecausetheycannotbe:farmersalwaystakeawhiletorespond.Itisalsobecausegovernmentshavesoftenedtheimpactofpricerisesondomesticmarkets,mufflingthesignalsthatwouldotherwisehaveencouragedfarmerstogrowmorefood.Of58countrieswhosereactionsaretrackedbytheWorldBank,48haveimposedp

9、ricecontrols,consumersubsidies,exportrestrictionsorlowertariffs.Butthefoodscareof2008,severeasitis,isonlyasymptomofabroaderproblem.Thesurgeinfoodpriceshasended30yearsinwhichfoodwascheap,farmingwassubsidisedinrichcountriesandinternationalfoodmarketswerewildlydistorted.Eventually,nodoubt,farmerswillre

10、spondtohigherpricesbygrowingmoreandanewequilibriumwillbeestablished.Ifallgoeswell,foodwillbeaffordableagainwithoutthesubsidies,dumpinganddistortionsoftheearlierperiod.Butatthemoment,agriculturehasbeencaughtinlimbo.Theeraofcheapfoodisover.Thetransitiontoanewequilibriumisprovingcostlier,moreprolongeda

11、ndmuchmorepainfulthananyonehadexpected."Wearethecanaryinthemine,"saysJosetteSheeran,theheadoftheUN'sWorldFoodProgramme,thelargestdistributoroffoodaid.Usually,afoodcrisisisclearandlocalised.Theharvestfails,oftenbecauseofwarorstrife,andtheburdenintheaffectedregionfallsheavilyonthepoorest

12、.Thiscrisisisdifferent.Itisoccurringinmanycountriessimultaneously,thefirsttimethathashappenedsincetheearly1970s.Anditisaffectingpeoplenotusuallyhitbyfamines."Forthemiddleclasses,"saysMsSheeran,"itmeanscuttingoutmedicalcare.Forthoseon$2aday,itmeanscuttingoutmeatandtakingthechildrenouto

13、fschool.Forthoseon$1aday,itmeanscuttingoutmeatandvegetablesandeatingonlycereals.Andforthoseon50centsaday,itmeanstotaldisaster."Thepoorestaresellingtheiranimals,tools,thetinroofovertheirheadsmakingrecovery,whenitcomes,muchharder.Becausetheproblemisnotyetreflectedinnationalstatistics,itsscaleisha

14、rdtojudge.Theeffectonthepoorwilldependonwhethertheyarenetbuyersoffoodornetsellers(seearticle);forsomenetbuyers,thepricerisesmaybeenoughtoturnthemintosellers.Butbyalmostanymeasure,thehumansufferingislikelytobevast.InElSalvadorthepoorareeatingonlyhalfasmuchfoodastheywereayearago.Afghansarenowspendingh

15、alftheirincomeonfood,upfromatenthin2006.Onaconservativeestimate,food-pricerisesmayreducethespendingpoweroftheurbanpoorandcountrypeoplewhobuytheirownfoodby20%(insomeregions,pricesarerisingbyfarmore).Justover1billionpeopleliveon$1aday,thebenchmarkofabsolutepoverty;1.5billionliveon$1to$2aday.BobZoellic

16、k,thepresidentoftheWorldBank,reckonsthatfoodinflationcouldpushatleast100mpeopleintopoverty,wipingoutallthegainsthepoorestbillionhavemadeduringalmostadecadeofeconomicgrowth.SmallisfairlybeautifulIntheshortrun,humanitarianaid,social-protectionprogrammesandtradepolicieswilldeterminehowwelltheworldcopes

17、withtheseproblems.Butinthemediumtermthequestionisdifferent:wheredoestheworldgetmorefoodfrom?IftheextrasuppliescomemainlyfromlargefarmersinAmerica,Europeandotherbigproducers,thenthenewequilibriummayenduplookingmuchliketheoldone,withworldfooddependingonasmallnumberofsuppliersandpossiblytradedistortion

18、sandfooddumping.Sofar,farmersinrichcountrieshaveindeedresponded.America'swinterwheatplantingsareup4%andthespring-sownareaislikelytorisemore.TheFoodandAgricultureOrganisationforecaststhatthewheatharvestintheEuropeanUnionwillrise13%.Ideally,abigpartofthesupplyresponsewouldcomefromtheworld's450

19、msmallholdersindevelopingcountries,peoplewhofarmjustafewacres.Therearethreereasonswhythiswouldbedesirable.First,itwouldreducepoverty:three-quartersofthosemakingdoon$1adayliveinthecountrysideanddependonthehealthofsmallholderfarming.Next,itmighthelptheenvironment:thosesmallholdersmanageadisproportiona

20、teshareoftheworld'swaterandvegetationcover,soraisingtheirproductivityonexistinglandwouldbeenvironmentallyfriendlierthancuttingdowntherainforest.Anditshouldbeefficient:intermsofreturnsoninvestment,itwouldbeeasiertoboostgrainyieldsinAfricafromtwotonnesperhectaretofourthanitwouldbetoraiseyieldsinEu

21、ropefromeighttonnestoten.Theopportunitiesaregreaterandthelawofdiminishingreturnshasnotsetin.Unfortunately,nosmallholderbonanzaisyethappening.InpartsofeastAfrica,farmersarecuttingbackontheareaplanted,mostlybecausetheycannotaffordfertilisers(drivenbyoil,fertiliserpriceshavesoared,too).Thisreactionisno

22、tuniversal.Indiaisforecastingarecordcerealharvest;SouthAfricanplantingisup8%thisyear.Still,someanecdotalevidence,plusthegeneralincreaseinfoodprices,suggeststhatsmallholdersarenotrespondingenough.Tnaperfectworld,"saysarecentIFPRIreport,"theresponsetohigherpricesishigheroutput.Intherealworld

23、,however,thisisn'talwaysthecase."Farminginemergingmarketsisriddledwithmarketfailuresanddoesnotreacttopricesignalsasotherbusinessesdo.Thisistruetoacertainextentoffarmingingeneral.Ifyouownatoyfactory,oranoilfield,andthepriceoftoysoroilrises,yourunthefactorynightandday,orturnthetapsfullon.Buti

24、talwaystakesaseasontogrowmorefood,whichiswhyfarmpriceseverywheretendtobe"sticky”:a10%increaseinpricesleadstoa1%increaseinoutput.Butthefoodcrisisof2008suggestsfarmpricesindevelopingcountriesmaybestickierthanthat.Thequickestwaytoincreaseyourcropistoplantmore.Butintheshortrunthereisonlyalimitedamo

25、untoffallowlandeasilyavailable.(ThesubstantialunusedacreageinBrazilandRussiawilltakeadecadeorsotogetready.)ForsomecropsnotablyriceinEastAsiatheamountofgood,productivelandisactuallyfalling,buriedundertheconcreteofexpandingcities.Inotherwords,foodincreasesnowneedtocomemainlyfromhigheryields.Yieldscann

26、otbeswitchedonandofflikeatap.Spreadingextrafertiliserorbuyingnewmachineryhelps.Buthigheryieldsalsoneedbetterirrigationandfancierseeds.Thetimelagbetweendreamingupanewseedandgrowingitcommerciallyinthefieldistento15years,saysBobZeigleroftheInternationalRiceResearchInstitute(IRRI)inthePhilippines.Evenif

27、afarmerwantedtoplantsomethingmoreproductivethisyear,andcouldaffordto,hecouldnotunlessresearchworkhadbeengoingonforyears.Ithasnot.Mostagriculturalresearchindevelopingcountriesisfinancedbygovernments.Inthe1980s,governmentsstartedtoreducegreen-revolutionaryspending,eitheroutofcomplacency(believingthepr

28、oblemoffoodhadbeenlicked),orbecausetheypreferredtoinvolvetheprivatesector.Butmanyoftheprivatefirmsbroughtintoreplacestateresearchersturnedouttoberent-seekingmonopolists.Andinthe1980sand1990shugefarmsurplusesfromtherichworldwerebeingdumpedonmarkets,depressingpricesandreturnsoninvestment.Spendingonfar

29、mingasashareoftotalpublicspendingindevelopingcountriesfellbyhalfbetween1980and2004.Thisdeclinehashadaslow,inevitableimpact.Creatinganewseedisabitlikedesigningafluvaccine:youneedtokeepupdatingit,orpestsanddiseasewillnegateitseffectiveness.WhenthericevarietyIR8wasintroducedin1966,itproducedalmosttento

30、nnesperhectare;nowityieldsbarelyseven.Indevelopingcountriesbetweenthe1960sand1980s,yieldsofthemaincerealcropsincreasedby3-6%ayear.Nowannualgrowthisdownto1-2%,belowtheincreaseindemand(seechart2)."We'repayingthepricefor15yearsofneglect,"saysMrZeigler.Alterationsinthestructureoffarminghav

31、eexacerbatedtheeffectsofunderinvestment.Farmingisjustonepartofafoodchainthatstretchesfromfertiliserandseedcompaniesatoneendtosupermarketsattheother.Inthepast,theendofthechainnearestconsumerswaslessimportant.Foodpolicymeantimprovinglinksbetweenfarmersandsuppliers.TheGreenRevolutionofthe1960s,forexamp

32、le,providednewseedsandsubsidisedfertilisers.Malawiisdoingsomethingsimilarnow.Butoverthepastdecade,theotherendofthechainhascometomattermore.ThemainreasonwhyKenyanandEthiopianfarmersplantedlessthisyearwasnotjustthatfertiliserswereexpensive,butthatfarmerscouldnotgetcredittofinancepurchases.Supermarkets

33、arealsomoreimportanttofarmersthantheyusedtobe,accountingforhalformoreoffoodsales,eveninmanydevelopingcountries.SuccessinpatchesIntheory,thegrowingimportanceoftradersandsupermarketsoughttomakefarmersmoreresponsivetochangesinpricesandconsumertastes.Insomeplaces,thatisthecase.Butsupermarketsneeduniform

34、quality,minimumlargequantitiesandhighstandardsofhygiene,whichtheaveragesmallholderinapoorcountryisillequippedtoprovide.Sotradersandsupermarketsmaybenefitcommercialfarmersmorethansmallholders.Tomakemattersworse,smallholdingsarefragmentinginmanycountries.Becauseofpopulationgrowthandthelossoffarmland,t

35、heaveragefarmsizeinChinaandBangladeshhasfallenfromabout1.5hectaresinthe1970stobarely0.5hectaresnow;inEthiopiaandMalawi,itfellfrom1.2hectaresto0.8inthe1990s.Byandlarge,thesmallerthefarm,thegreatertheburdenofthecostofdoingbusinesswithbigretailers.Smallersmallholdersarealsoatadisadvantageingettingloans

36、,newseedsandotherinnovationsonwhichhigheryieldsdepend.Suchbottlenecksandmarketfailuresmakeitharderforsmallholderstorespondtohigherprices,evenwithoutthemultipledistortionsthatgovernmentsalsointroduceintoworldfoodmarkets.Theymeanthetransitiontoanewequilibriumwillbeprolongedandpainful.Buttheydonotmeani

37、twillnothappen.LennartB?ge,theheadoftheInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment,aUNagencyinRome,arguesthatiffarmerscankeepthehigherprices,theywillovercometheproblemsthatbesetthem.Ashepointsout,Indiafeeds17%oftheworld'speopleonlessthan5%oftheworld'swaterand3%ofitsfarmlandand,alongwithChina

38、,isseeingitscerealcroprisethisyear.Similarsuccessstoriesarecroppingup,inpatches.DespiteEastAfrica'sproblems,Ethiopiathisweekopeneditsowncommodityexchange,ararethingonthecontinent,inanattempttoimprovethemarketsthatconnectfarmersandtraders.Thespreadofmobilephonesalsorelaysmarketinformationmorewidely.InlandlockedMalawi,itcostsalmostasmuchtos