巴西东北部旅游房地产场开发【外文翻译】

1、外文翻译原文TourismRealEstateDevelopmentsinNortheastBrazilMaterialsource：ADIT-NEAuthor：DiogoCanterasINTRODUCTIONThisarticleisfocusedontheTourismRealEstateinNortheastBrazil,amarketthatevolvedswiftlyinthepastfewyearsastheresultofworldwidecheapcapitalavailability,improvedtourismdestinations,perceivedinvestme

2、ntpotential,afavorableexchangerateandlowBrazilianassetprices.Theinformation,analysesandconclusionspresentedhereinaretheresultofanextensiveresearchedcarriedoutbyHVSandNewmarkKnightFrankonbehalfofADIT-NE(AssociationfortheDevelopmentoftheTourismRealEstateMarketinNortheastBrazil).TheAssociation'goal

3、istoproviderelevantinformationandanalysestogovernmentauthorities,investorsanddevelopers,inordertoassistplanninganddecisionmaking.Theresearchincludedvastsecondarydatacollection,fieldworksallovertheNortheasterncostandmorethan70interviewswithdevelopers,governmentauthorities,brokers,consultantandinvesto

4、rs.ItsmainfindingswerepresentedinNorderstedtInvest2008(anindustrymeeting).ThecompleteresearchandfindingswillbepublishedbyADIT-NEsoon.Thisarticlehassixsectionsapartfromthisintroduction.Thefirsttwosectionspresentourdefinitionofthetourismrealestatemarketandshowscurrentmarketdataandprojectionsofsupplyan

5、ddemandforresidentialunitsintourismrealestatedevelopments.ThethirdandfourthsectionspresenttheresormtarketspermfoanceaswellasprojectsupplyanddemandforresortdriversaffectingthetourismrealestatemarketinBrazil,drawsomeconclusionandprovideRecommenddictionsforindustrystakeholders.THETOURISMREALESTATEMARKE

6、TTourismrealestatepropertiesarethoselocatedatdesiredtouristdestinations,composedbysecond-homeunitsandlargetourismandleisurefacilitiessuchashotels,parks,marinas,golfcourses,etc.Thesefacilitiesenhancetouristexperience,inducetouristflowsandprovideservicestoguestsandowners.Therefore,theyimprovedesirabil

7、ityandleveragepricesandsalesspeedofresidentialunits.Althoughtheoperationofsuchfacilitiesmaybeunprofitable,thevaluetheyaddusuallyincreasestheprojects'overallvalue.Thereare48tourismrealestatecomplexesoperatingorunder-developmentinNortheastBrazil.Thestockofresidentialunitsandlandplotsintourismreale

8、statedevelopmentslocatesinNortheastBrazilamountapproximately1,900units.Inthepastthreeyears,salesspeedrangedfrom20to100unitsannually,perproject.Saleswerephasedinblocksof100to300units(mostfrequentlyfrom100to150).Second-homesalespricespersquaremeterofbuiltarearangesfromR$2.500,00toR$3.500,00formidmarke

9、tproductsorproductsinlessdesiredlocations;fromR$3.500,00toR$5.000,00forupscaleproducts;andfromR$5.000,00toR$7.000,00inhigh-endproducts.Comparingtoothercountries,Northeastern-Brazilpricesarestilllow(althoughinaccordancewiththenationalreality)asdemonstratedinpicture2.Landsalespricesperlinearbeach-fron

10、tmetersvarysignificantly,asshowninpicture3.Destinationattractivenessandstageofdevelopmentexplainpartofthepricevariations.SomeofthemostattractiveandexpensivedestinationsinNortheastBrazilarePipa(RN);PortodeGalina(PsE);Marau(BA);Itacar(BA);andTrancoso(BA).Duringthepastsevenyears,therehasbeenagreatincre

11、aseinlandsalesprice.Currentlytheperceptionisthatpricesareovervalued,giventheexpectedrevenueandsalesspeedofresidentialunitsintourismrealestateprojects.SUPPLYANDDEMANDFORECASTInthefirsthalfof2008,theaggregateannouncedsupplyofplannedtourismrealestateprojectstotaledover78thousandresidentialunits.Weestim

12、ate,however,thatonlyabout7thousandunitswillbebuiltby2014.Ourforecastsaresubjecttothefollowingassumptions:1. AverageannualGDPgrowthof4%to5%andachievementofinflationtargetsthroughouttheprojectionperiod.2. ResumptionofNorthAmericanandEuropeaneconomicgrowthintandemwiththeendofthefinancialcrisis,starting

13、inthesecondhalfof2009.3. Absenceofnewdomesticorinternationaleconomiccrises.4. MaintenanceofBrazil'currenttourismdevelopmentstrategyinfederalandstatelevel.Additionally,ourforecaststookintoconsiderationthefollowinginformation:1.Existingsupplytook30yearstodevelopedamountonly1900units,andsalesSpeedi

14、nthepastyearswassomewhatlimited(asstatedpreviously),evenwithVeryfavorablemarketconditions.2. Althoughtherehasbeenanincreaseinforeigndemand,ithasbeensignificantlyLowerthanmostexpectations,eveninafavorableenvironment.Intheshort-term,therearefactors(suchastheinternationalfinancialcrisis)thatwillhinderf

15、oreigndemand.Inthemid-term,foreigndemandshouldincreaseagain,buttherearenosignsthatsuchdemandwillbemuchhigherthanthepreviouslyobservedorhighenoughtoabsorbtheannouncedsupplyofresidentialunits.3. Traditionally,largedevelopmentstakeseveralyearstobuildandsellallresidentialunits,astheyareusuallydevelopedi

16、nsmallphases.Ifanyphaseunderperforms(sellsslowlyoratlowprices),subsequentphasesaresuspendeduntilmarketconditionsimprove.Thus,themarketmechanismspreventsupplygrowingfasterthandemandinnormaltimes.4. Basedonthisinformationandontheindividualanalysisofallexistingprojects,wedevelopedaforecastofsupplyandde

17、mandforasevenyearperiod.Thistimespanreflectsourestimationoftheperiodrequiredforprojectsunderdevelopmenttofinishatleasttheirfirstorcurrentphase.Giventhecloserelationshipbetweensupplyanddemand,weexpectfuturedemandfortourismrealestateresidentialunitsinNortheasternBrazilwillbesufficienttoabsorbtheprojec

18、tedsupply.Thisexpectation(basescenario)isrepresentedbythebluelineinPicture5.ThisPicturealsopresentsdemandforecastsfortwoextremealternativescenarios.Theoccurrenceofthesescenariosissubjecttothebehaviorofthefollowingvariables:exchangerates,air-travelaccessibility,financingavailability,theinternationalp

19、romotionofBrazil'sntoustsyniTheoptimisticscenarioassumestheexchangeratewillriseandstayatrelativelyhighlevels,makingtheBrazilianproductcheaperforinternationalbuyers.Thisincreasedcompetitivenessalongwithinvestmentininfrastructureandmarketingwillincreaseattractivenessandair-travelaccessibility.Simu

20、ltaneously,theendoftheinternationalfinancialcrisisandresumptionofinternationalgrowthwillfostertheavailabilityoffinance.Thepessimisticscenarioassumestheovervaluedlocalcurrency,thelackoverinvestmentininfrastructureandpromotion,andtheabsenceoffinancingoptions,willmakeBrazilunattractiveforinternationalb

21、uyers.Consequently,thetourismrealestatemarketbecomesexclusivelydependantonthedomesticdemand,whichwouldriseastheresultoftheexpectedeconomicgrowth.译文巴西东北部旅游房地产市场开发资料来源：ADITNE作者：DiogoCanteras引言这篇文章重点讲述的是巴西东北部的旅游房地产市场，这是一个在过去几年迅速演化为全球化的廉价资本的可利用性市场，这个市场很好的改善了旅游目的地，让人们意识到投资的潜力，以及有利的汇率和较低的巴西资产率。这个信息是HVS和Ne

22、wmarkKnightFrank代表在ADIT-NE（在巴西东北部的一个发展旅游房地产市场的协会）分析总结的。该协会的目标是提供有关信息结果和分析，以政府主管部门，投资者和开发商，以协助规划和决策。这项研究包括广大的第二元数据采集，遍布东北的各个地方和与70多个开发商，政府机关，经纪，顾问和投资者。其主要研究发现发表于Nordeste投资2008（一个行业会议）。完整的研究和调查结果将由ADIT-NE很快发表。文章总共分为六个部分，第一和第二部分主要阐述了我们对旅游房地产市场的定义，并且显示当前的市场数据，以及供给和需求的推算，和旅游房地产住宅单位的发展。第三和第四部分阐述度假市场的表现，以及

23、这个度假圣地项目中客房的供应和需求。第五和第六部分讨论司机对旅游房地产市场的影响，从而得出一些结论，并且提供业内人士的建议。旅游房地产市场旅游房地产是指那些位于理想的旅游目的地，组成的第二个家和大型旅游休闲设施，如酒店，公园，游艇码头，高尔夫球场等，这些设施，大大的提高旅游体验，诱导旅游人群的流动和向客人提供良好的服务。因此，他们充分提高住宅单位的可取性，以及灵活的价格和销售速度。尽管这些设施很可能无利可图，但是新增的价值通常会提高项目整体的价值。这里总共有48个旅游房产的复合经营或者未发展的房产在巴西东北部。住宅的股票单位和旅游房产的旅游用地在位于巴西东北部的发展约有1900个单位。在过去的

24、三年来，每年每个单位每个项目的销售速度介于20至100个单位之间销售额为分阶段在100至300个单位（最频繁的从100到150）二手房销售价格每平方米建成区范围从R$2.500,00至R$3.500,00为中端市场的产品或者需求比较少地区的产品。价格从R$3.500,00至ijR$5.000,00属于高档产品，相比于其他国家价格从R$5.000,00至R$7.000,00属于中高档产品。巴西东北部价格依然比较低(尽管根据国家现状来说)每线性海滩土地销售价格变化是关键，目的地的吸引力和阶段发展也是价格变化参考的一部分。一些最有吸引力和最昂贵的目的地是在巴西东北部的Pipa(RN);PortodeGalina'(PE);Mara(BA);Itacar(BA);andTrancoso(BA).。在过去的七年，土地的销售价格出现了大量的增长。目前人们普遍的认为价格被高估了特别是在旅游房产的预期收入和销售方面。供给和需求预测在2008年上半年，旅游房产供应计划公布了房产项目总额超过7.8万住宅单位。而然我们估计只有7000个住宅单位将在2014年前完成。我们的预测是符合以下假设的：1 .巴西国内生产总值年平均增长4%至5%,以及通货膨胀目标完成在整个预测期内。2 .北美经