金本位制论文金融危机论文：货币制度回归金本位的可行性分析

1、金本位制论文金融危机论文：货币制度回归金本位的可行性分析摘要：随着时间的推移，国际市场上由于金融危机而引起的轩然大波也渐渐的得到了平息。然而，就在各国都在为经济新一轮的涅槃而摩拳擦掌之时，国际间货币市场却看似余波未平。近年来，美元与他国主要货币之间的汇率持续走低，有些甚至跌至了近四十年来的谷底；而同时，美元汇率的不稳定性也使得美国的主要交易对手普遍对之产生了信任危机。例如，在2008年末，当国际油价在100美元大关处徘徊不定之时，以阿联酋、卡塔尔为代表的一些国家都曾考虑用其他主要货币来替代美元作为国际间油价的计价单位。就在这个时点上，一些知名的经济学家公开呼吁国际社会摒弃美元，回归金本位制。那

2、么，在当今的经济大环境下，回归金本位制是不是一个好的选择？它又有着怎样的可行性？本文通过着重分析回归金本位制的优劣之处，试图对这一个问题进行探讨。关键词：金本位制国际市场金融危机servingasamaincoinageforoveronecentury,thegoldstandarddoeshasitsmerits.first,theexchangeratefixedunderthegoldstandardsuccessfullyavoidedtheuncertaintycausedbythefluctuatingrate,whichwoulddefinitelyhelptostabiliz

3、etheworldtrade.second,thankstothesymmetryofthegoldstandard,notasinglecountrycouldenjoyeditsprivilegeinthissystem.itistheneachcountrysobligationtointerveneitsforeignexchangemarket.third,sinceeachcentralbankwasaskedtopinitsgoldpriceatafixedlevel,themoneysupplyofacountrywouldneverbeabletogoupmorequickl

4、ythanitsactualdemandandacountrythuscouldeludetheriskofinflation.however,theideaofusdollarreturningtothegoldstandardismerelyanimpracticalwindbaggary.firstly,judgingfromahistoricalandphilosophicpointofview,therearealwaysnecessityandobjectivitylyingintheroadstowardtherevolutionofacertainkindofthing.act

5、ually,theexactreasonthatpaperstandardreplacedtheonceprevailinggoldstandardwasthattheexistenceofthegoldstandardseriouslysuppressedthedevelopmentoftheworldeconomy.owingtothelimitofthegoldreservesineachcountryandtothelowefficiencyoftheexploitationofgold,theamountofmoneysupplycouldonlyshareacomparativel

6、yslowriseinthegoldstandardsystem.statisticshowsthatthegoldreservesthroughouttheworldwasaround386tonsinyear1900andtheannualoutputofworldwidegoldhaskeptcomparativelystablesincethemiddleperiodof1990s,at2500tonsperyear.however,theeconomyaggregateduring20thcentury16.4timesfasterthanthatattheendofthe19thc

7、entury.soitisobviousthatthecurrencysystemwouldbeunmatchedtothefastdevelopingworldeconomyifwestickedtothegoldstandard.eventhoughsomespecialistsandscholarsadvocatethatusdollarshouldandmustreturntothegoldstandardatthetopoftheirbent,itisnodoubtagainstthehistoricaltrajectory,withthedestinydoomedevenacent

8、uryago.secondly,thegoldstandarditselfisnotanabsolutelystablecoinageaspeoplegenerallyregard.eventhoughthemonetarysystemisbackedbyrealgold,theeruptionofcurrencycrisisstillremainsaroundthecorner.asisthecasewithfixedexchangeratesystem,oncethereisaseveremisconductinacountrysmacroeconomicpolicies,forexamp

9、leacomparativelyhighlevelofgovernmentdeficit,theexchangespeculatorswilltendtoexpectthehardshipforthegovernmenttomaintainthepriceratiobetweenitscurrencyandgold.speculatorsarethenlikelytorunongoldagainstusdollarinordertokeepvalueandevenmakeprofit.letstakethewild-spreadunrestinwesterncountriesinyear196

10、0forexample.becauseoftheanxietyforthefurtherdepreciationofusdollar,whichwascausedbytheincreasinglyintensifiedfiscalcrisisinamerica,thegoldpriceinlondonmarketrocketedstraightlyfrominitially35dollarsperounceto40.6dollars.besides,france,italy,switzerland,germany,aswellascanadaallsufferedfromanationalpa

11、nicpurchasewhichwaslateerdescribedasoneincrediblyandunprecedentedly.eveninnewyorkmarket,theamountofgoldboughtsolelyinoctober20threachedtoarecord20,000,000dollars.therefore,takingthegoldstandardasacountermeasureagainstthefactofpersistentlydepreciationisonthecardstoinduceanewtermoffluctuation.thirdly,

12、thegoldstandardwillrendertougherandtougherquestions,bringaboutviciouscirclesifnothandledproperly,andfinallycauseasystemicrecessionallaroundtheworld.foronething,acentralbankcannotregulategrossrequirementviadominatinggrossmoneysupplyunderthegoldstandard.asaresult,whenacountryissufferingfromadeclineini

13、tseconomy,thecentralbankcouldnothelptostimulatethenationaldemandortospurtheeconomicalperformanceandthedeclineineconomywilleventuallyleadtoanoverallstagnancywiththetime-lapse.foranother,becauseoftheconfinementtotheamountofgold,allthecountriesaroundtheworldwillendeavortoimprovetheirproductionleveltoac

14、hievealargerquotaoftheglobalgold.accordingtothefisherequation(pxy=mv),asthenationaloutputincreases,thepriceforuniteproductandworkforceisgettinglowerandlower.thiswillcauseaworldwideunemploymentandthenbreaktheinternalbalanceofanopeneconomy,leadingtoalowefficiencyoftheglobaleconomicaloperation.lastbutn

15、otleast,althoughthegoldstandardavoidsthenaturalasymmetrythatthereservecurrencypossesses,thiskindofsystemalsohastheuniqueweakpoint.becausegoldminesofdifferentsizesscatterallaroundtheworldasraremineralresources,thepracticeofthegoldstandardwillendowtheworldsmajorgoldproducers,suchasrussiaandsouthafrica

16、,aswellasthebiggestgoldreservers,forinstanceamericaandgermany,hiscase,themajorgoldproducerswillhavetheprivilegetochoosewhethertheyshouldslowdownorevenstoptheirexploitationofgoldasthegoldpricedropstoacertainlevel.theirrichnessinthenaturalresourcesh

17、hemeantime,themajorgoldreserverscanalsoobtaintheeconomiccutokuanundergoldstandardonthebasisofthegoldholdings.however,thiskindofauthorityhasnothingtodowiththeireconomicoutputsandthecontributiontotheoutsideworld.byactinglikethis,theenthusi

18、asmoftheothercountriesforbeingengagedintheireconomicactivitieswillbedeeplyhurt,thusgivingbirthtoanewgenerationofworldwideeconomichegemony.conclusion:asamatteroffact,otherthanthefourmainpointsjustmentionedhereinbefore,therestilllaysavarietyofbarrierscryingforbeingclearedifusdollarisdeterminedtoreturn

19、tothegoldstandard.forexample,inthelastdecades,americahasissuedalargenumberofnationaldebtsinordertomakeupforitshugegovernmentdeficit.then,whatcourseshouldtheothercreditornationsfollowifusdollarisnolongeraworldreservecurrency?besides,whattheexactlyactionsshouldeachgovernmenttakestoreestablishtheoncelostfaithamongthepeople?allthesereality-basedproblemsandimmenseuncertaintymakethereturnoftheusdollartothegoldstandardsimplyawildestdream.simultaneously,sinceeurohassufferedquitelotrecentlyindealingwiththegreekcrisisofexternaldeb