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1、Technology and product development trends in wireless communications无线通讯领域的技术提高和产品开发趋势 Jahan Ghofraniha, Ph.D.Taiyuan, Shanxi, ChinaAug 31- Sept 3Northwestern Polytechnic University美国西北理工大学.Outline主要内容Wireless technology overview.无线通讯技术的回想Trends in wireless communications.无线通讯的开展趋势Main technologies
2、affecting these trends.影响这些开展趋势的主要技术Main players in wireless semiconductor sector.无线半导体行业中的主要竞争对手Interaction of networking technology and mobile communications.互连网技术和挪动通讯技术的相互作用.Technology Overview技术回想1G, 2G, 2.5 G, 3G and 4G.ANALOG AMPS, TACS, NTT 1980 1990 2000 2021 years 1G 2G 3G 4G 2.4kbps 64kbp
3、s 2Mbps 1GbpsDIGITAL IS-95, IS-, GSM, PDCIMT-2000Broadband wirelessNarrowband 窄带 Wideband 宽带 Broadband.Technology Overview技术回想1G was very slow and mostly carry over from the past.1G非常慢,都是已发生图象2 G, faster data rates (upto 64kps) but too slow for retrieving images and text.2G比较快可达64kps,但是还是太慢,不能回溯图象和文
4、本The wide range demand on data rates led to 3G standard (high data rates, 2Mbps).对数据传输速率的广泛需求导致了3G规范的诞生高速传输, 2Mbps)4G, global wireless system goal is to offer cellular and nomadic broadband access everywhere.4G全球无线系统的目的是让全世界每个地方都可以衔接到离动宽带网上。.Wireless Trends in User Domain从用户的角度看无线通讯的开展趋势Increase in
5、2.5G and 3G handsets. 2.5G和3G话机添加Enhanced multimedia (Edge, GPRS, Camera phones).多媒体效果加强 Edge, GPRS,可摄象话机等From Gartner Report.Mobile World Market挪动通讯世界市场Enhanced phones will have the main market share. 功能强大的话机将占据主要的市场分额20032006.3G Architecture Impact3G构造的影响3G architecture will change the semiconduct
6、or trends towards a single chip implementation. 3G构造将使半导体技术朝着单芯片构造开展2G and 2.5 G Architecture 2G和2.5G构造MediaBasebandRadioMemory.3G Architecture Impact3G构造的影响In 3G we see a single chip implementation. 在3G构造中我们看到的是单芯片构造 3G Architecture 3G构造MediaBasebandRadioMemory.Market Demands Low Cost市场需求与降低本钱There
7、 will be a lot of pressure on handset manufacturers to bring the cost down.话机制造商将面临宏大的市场压力来降低本钱2000 Nokia 82102002 skyworks GSM/GPRS ChipsetBaseband: $15.62- Baseband: $11.00Pwr Mgnt: $4.00- Pwr Mgnt: $4.00Transceiver:$4.16- Pwr amp: $3.00Pwr Amp: $2.67- antenna: $2.00Antenna: $2.00Total:$ 28.45- To
8、tal: $ 20.00.Role of Baseband Section基带的作用Baseband processing constitutes the main cost of the system.基带处置将是整个系统中本钱最高的部分 Baseband will dominate the cost while it will be the main revenue factor.基带将继续是本钱的主要部分,同时也将是收入的主要部分RF contributions will decrease.RF的奉献将减少Baseband includes; analog and digital BB
9、, memory, power management and media processor.基带包括:模拟和数字BB,存储器,电源管理和媒体处置器.Baseband Processing = Growth基带处置=增长Baseband is where all the wireless chipset manufacturers are focusing.基带是一切无线芯片制造商都非常注目的地带This translates into new approaches to baseband processing, new power management systems and innovat
10、ive memory solutions.这也就是说,基带处置、电源管理和存储方式将不断地进展改良.Important ArchitecturesWireless application processors will combine video and graphics. 无线处置器将集图象和图表功能与一体。What is the trade off?那么为此而付出什么代价?There are 3 main architectures:主要有三种构造:Stand alone application processors 独立处置器Highest Performance.功能最强Highest
11、 Cost.本钱最高.Important Architectures2. Integrated application processors 集成处置器Low Cost.本钱低High Performance.性能好3. Baseband application processing基带处置Lowest Cost.本钱最低Lowest Performance.性能最差.RF Packaging TrendsRF包装开展趋势Enhanced phones will be the driving force in the handset market.强化话机将占据话机市场的主流RF chips
12、will also move towards a single package solution. RF芯片也将朝着单包装的方向开展Examples are: Skyworks, RFMD, Agilent, Renesas, Motorola.例如: Skyworks, RFMD, Agilent, Renesas, Motorola .Innovative RF Architectures创新性RF构造New multiband/multimode handsets will need new RF solutions.新的多带/多制式话机将需求新的RF构造设计RF architectur
13、es address the new demand by using SiGe and CMOS processes.RF构造将经过运用SiGe 和 CMOS 处置系统来满足新的需求New reconfigurable architecturs and WCDMA baseband processors will come to help. 另外,新的可重新刻度构造和WCDMA基带处置器也可以协助满足新的市场需求Bulk Acoustical Wave Filters.大容量声学滤波器.Key Players in Wireless Chipset无线芯片领域的饿主要竞争对手IntelTIQu
14、alcommMotorolaSTMicroPhilipsInfineonAgereSkyworksRFMD.Key Semi PA Suppliers主要半导体PA供应商RFMDSkyworksRenesasMotorolaPhilipsAnadigics.Key Semi Transceiver Suppliers主要半导体无线电收发机供应商InfineonMotorolaQualcommSTMicroFujitsuNECToshiba.Networking Trends网络化开展趋势Wireless LANs will connect devices to each other and t
15、o the internet.无线LAN 将把各种设备衔接在一同,并且衔接到互连网上Wireless PANs will connect devices to each other and peripherals.无线PAN将把各种设备衔接在一同,并衔接到外围设备上All of these will be impacted by embedded radio technologies.一切这些都将遭到嵌入无线电技术的影响Wireless chipset shipment growth will surpass chipset revenue. 无线芯片的货运量增长将快于无线芯片收入的增长.Ne
16、tworking Trends网络化开展趋势In order for the network chipset revenue to grow, the target market should shift from PC. 为了促使网络芯片销售收入的增长,目的市场应该从个人电脑转移到其他领域BlueTooth: 兰牙The key idea is the mobility.主要理念是灵敏性Wire replacement and connection with peripherals.有线替代和与外围设备的衔接By 2006, the estimated revenue will be 2.0
17、 B到2006年,估计销售收入将到达20亿美圆.BlueTooth Drawbacks兰牙的缺陷Lack of interoperability between different manufacturers.不同的制造商消费的产品缺乏相匹配性Security can be easily modified by administrators.平安性能很容易被管理者修正Difficult setup (HCI interface is poor). 启动困难HCI接口性能很差.Key Players in BlueTooth兰牙领域的主要竞争对手Cambridge Silicon RadioPh
18、ilipsTISilicon WaveBroadcomInfineonMotorola.Networking and Wireless Com网络化和无线通讯All in one solution will be the wave of the future.一体性处理方案将是未来开展的主流WCDMA, GSM/GPRS/EDGE handsets with bluetooth connectivity. WCDMA, GSM/GPRS/EDGE 话机,带兰牙衔接WLAN and BT PDAs and notebooks. WLAN和BT PDA 和笔记本Smart Phones combi
19、ned with PDAs, BT and cellular and WLAN capabilities.带PDA,BT 和蜂窝与WLAN匹配功能的智能话机.Networking and Wireless Com网络化和无线通讯The winner in the future market is the cost effective solution that will bring all these functionality in one device.未来市场的胜利者将是可以将一切这些功能集于一体,而且本钱效益比最正确的消费商.从美国的角度看技术开展趋势和东亚的作用Technology
20、Trends and the Role of East AsiaAn American PerspectiveJahan Ghofraniha, Ph.D.NPUChina Mobile WorkshopTiayuan, ShanxiAugust 31- Sep 3.趋势TrendsDigital technology has had a great impact in our lives and continues to play a significant role.数字技术对我们的生活有着非常重要的影响,并将继续发扬其重要作用In the global context, Technolo
21、gy is converging and becoming more uniform.在全球一体化背景下,出现技术收敛效应,技术规范越来越一致。Digital Content will be the wave that will hit us next.数字化的内容将是影响我们生活的下一个冲击波.Trends趋势Big companies in silicon valley are focusing on digital entertainment as their next big thing.硅谷的大公司正在将数字化文娱作为下一个开发的重点The buzz is iPod rather t
22、han simple PDA and network entertainment rather than networked computers.要的是iPod,而不是简单的PDA;是网络文娱,而不是简单的网络联机Intel is investing $200 m, in digital homes.英特尔投资2亿美圆构建其数字家园.Requirements要求High Fidelity in content creation: More visually exciting contents ( movies, games, etc) by converging image/signal pr
23、ocessing, graphics, audio, etc.编辑内容的高保真性:经过将影象/信号处置,图象,声音等信号的敛聚,发明更加具有视觉震撼性的内容电影,游戏等High fidelity in compression: advanced compression techniques deliver better quality content with small amount of information.紧缩的高保真性:可以用更小的信息量传送更加高质量的内容的先进紧缩技术.Requirements要求More content storage space everywhere: st
24、orage space is getting larger and more portable ( in PCs, digital cameras, etc) and the price is getting lower.越来越大的存储量:存储空间越来越大,越来越方便挪动如个人电脑,数码相机等,价钱越来越低More contents any time and any where: combination of wireless home networking and broadband, devices are connected everywhere and different device
25、s communicate more seamlessly. 随时随地,内容丰富:无线网络和宽带结合在一同,设备互联,设备间的交流更加通畅.Requirements要求More interactive environment: interactive TV, education and learning, games更可以互动的环境:互动电视,教育和学习,游戏等等.Challenges挑战Cyber security: All devices are connected to internet but security is the drawback of this connectivity
26、( spam, virus, fraud, spyware, )网络平安:一切的设备都衔接到互连网上,但是平安成为这种衔接的致命问题渣滓邮件,病毒,欺诈,间谍文件等Piracy: intellectual property for the content providers on one hand and file sharing on the other hand has brought about new effort to make piracy difficult and unachievable.个人隐私:内容提供者的知识产权维护与文件在公众间的共享之矛盾为维护个人隐私提供了新的课题
27、,使得维护个人隐私非常困难.Challenges挑战Royalty and Standards: drive the cost of similar product high and may not be accepted by the industry.忠实与规范:使得同类产品的本钱添加,能够导致业界难以接受Digital Equality: widens the gap between the internet savvy generation and people living in rural areas and less educated.数字世界的人人平等:使得互连网冲浪者和居住在
28、乡村、受教育程度较低人群之间的鸿沟越来越大.Opportunities机遇Innovative products in new digital home. Ease of use and portability are the key issues.新数码世界中的创新性产品。运用温馨与便携性是重点Software that manages contents. An easy-to-use software that manages 1000 of images of a digital camera. 内容管理软件。运用方便,可以管理1000个数码相机图象的软件Home networking
29、facilitator. A system that can handle many devices to exchange and 互连器,可以控制多个设备进展数据交换的系统.Opportunities机遇And share information. The growth estimate in this market is about $5.3 b in 2007.信息共享。估计到2007年市场增长将到达53亿美圆How would these trends play out in the global context, especially in East Asia where we s
30、ee the highest growth rate in the past few years?在全球化进程中,这种趋势将发扬什么样的作用?尤其是在东亚地域,过去几年这里的增长速度是全世界最快的.Development in East Asia东亚的开展The effect of growth of East Asia is felt all over the world.全世界都能感遭到东亚快速增长所带来的后果The main issue is if the European and North American countries can compete with the East As
31、ian countries if they want to maintain the welfare system and government sponsored industries? 主要问题是:假设欧洲国家和美洲国家依然保管其福利制度和政府扶持企业的政策,这些国家能否和东亚地域的国家相竞争?.Key Players主要参与者Taiwan:台湾Most striking development in the last 40 years.过去40年间获得的惊人成就Most succesful industries have been: semiconductor companies (TS
32、MC in HsinChu and UMC in Taipei) that controls of the $20 b global contract chip market. 最胜利的行业包括:半导体业新竹的TSMC 和台北的UMC ,控制了全球芯片市场总容量200亿美圆中的四分之三.Key Players主要参与者World largest notebook manufacturer. 世界最大的笔记本制造基地2nd LCD manufacturer.世界第二大LCD制造基地What has fueled this growth?什么缘由促使了这种开展?The strong culture
33、 of entrepreneurship. 传统的敬业精神Lack of government funded R&D. Survival of the fittest strategy.没有政府出资的R&D,最好的战略胜出Ironically, the relationship with China has been helpful.颇具挖苦意味的是,与中国大陆的关系也对这种开展提供了协助.Key Players主要参与者Big investments in china has tied the economy of the two countries together.在中国的宏大投资将这两
34、个国家绑在了同一条战船上South Korea:韩国It has achieved the same level of development in 50 years as what Spain achieved in 200 years.用50年的时间获得了西班牙用200年的时间所获得的开展成就Major maker of memory technology.存储技术的主要设计者.Key Players主要参与者Cell phones, flat panel displays and cars.蜂窝,平板显示器和汽车Strategy has been to target US market
35、rather than China by adopting US cell phone standards. 战略是瞄准美国市场,而不是中国市场,采用美国蜂窝规范Similar copy-cat strategy to Japan but easing this approach and opening the market (chaebol). 同日本战略类似,但是更加谨慎,同时开放市场.Key Player (US perspective)主要参与者从美国的角度看Would like to be the stepping stone or a hub for Western companies into China (Crystal Valley, enclave of digital media in Seoul, bullet train that connects Northwest to south).希望成为西方公司进入中国的铺路石或媒介China:
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