世界经济千年史

1、世界经济千年史碍2004年第54期（总第4皑70期）岸2004年9月28日荷兰格阿罗宁根大学教授、世界经济奥千年史作者Maddiso把n先生在中国经济研究中心万绊众楼做了题为哀“暗世界经济千年史啊”拔的讲座，集中讨论了宏观经济按计量历史研究的发展进程。下扳面是他报告的主要内容。坝宏观经济计量历史的发展经历扒了三个历史阶段：20世纪5奥0年代以来的扳“哎收入和财富国际研究协会时期靶”挨即IARIW时期（Inte扒rnational Ass白ociation for 皑Research in I哎ncome and Wea氨lth）；1820195办0年的库兹涅斯研究为代表的靶时期或哀“暗Kuzn

2、etsian时期皑”般；15001820年商人跋资本主义年代。50年代以来败，宏观计量的主要目的是提供埃可能的政策选择以改善国家的盎增长表现以及进行国家间差异碍分析。我们现在有50年代以熬来世界大部分国家的增长和收耙入的官方估计。而在Kuzn巴etsian时代，数量经济把史学家在测量世界经济增长和隘量化增长因素方面取得了巨大凹进展。虽然仍有一些领域需要翱改进，但对这个时期经济发展扮大致轮廓没有实质争议。相反肮，关于商人资本主义年代的世柏界经济的描述则存在很大分歧挨，作为代表的是亚当、斯密的笆乐观看法和马尔萨斯的悲观论靶。耙20世纪50年代以来的IA氨RIW时代板虽然50年代以来标准国民经柏济核

3、算体系逐渐被采用，但是斑现存估计中仍有很多问题。使暗用苏联MPS体系（mate扒rial producti癌on system）的国家瓣增长被高估，需要做大量调整笆。非洲许多新生国家缺少必要阿的技术和资金进行国民收入增半长核算，虽然国际组织工作在跋一定程度上弥补了这种不足，阿但是非洲数据也需要做大量调氨整。还有1995年以来一些哎高收入国家开始引入享乐指数瓣（hedonic inde颁x）来反映产品质量的改善，氨但是这么做并没有充分的根据坝并且会高估经济增长，比如美暗国用新的计量技术重新进行1巴9291950年国民经济伴核算，结果使国内生产总值(伴GDP)的增长率由2.6%挨增加到3.5%。最

4、后关于教矮育和知识的计量也还没有成熟绊理论。稗另一问题是购买力平价转换与挨国家间GDP水平比较。政府凹统计官员会提供真实价格计算凹的总产出和总支出数据，经济百学家、新闻记者和官员们都将矮其作为经济增长和波动的主要皑指标。购买力平价方法与用真摆实价格计量的目的是一样的，邦即修正价格差异使真实产出和袄支出水平的有效比较成为可能拌。以汇率转换的GDP与以购扒买力平价转换的GDP区别非跋常大。以购买力平价计算的发般展中国家的GDP要大大高于懊以汇率转换的GDP，差距可拜能达到3-5倍。同时发达国暗家GDP以汇率计算则容易被颁高估。更为明显的一个例子是跋1950年中国和印度以汇率白计算人均GDP分别是$

5、85埃和$175（1990年价格爱），这两个数据低得让人难以凹置信。那么为何汇率转换还如哎此经常的被使用呢？一方面出百于无知和支持自己观点的需要坝，另一方面许多发展国家不愿矮意接受购买力平价方法，因为般担心这会不利于他们申请世行百的优惠贷款和资助。这导致了白经济间比较分析的明显错误，绊媒体经常称日本是世界第二大班经济虽然其GDP还不到中国叭的60，英国的政客们也始啊终相信英国的经济规模比中国艾大。稗18201950年的Ku疤znetsian时代案Simon Kuznets安教授对现代经济增长的研究成罢果，使可以数量化研究的时间般界限从20世纪50年代推进把到19世纪20年代。关于这摆段时期我们

6、现有的几个结论是阿：加速的经济增长始于182把0年而非Kuznets认为鞍的1760年；经济学家对西败欧各国研究表明西欧的崛起是氨同时而非交错发生的；这段时八期快速发展加大了西方与其他哀国家的差距；Kuznets把研究推翻了Kondrati败eff长期循环的说法和Sc瓣humpeter循环发展论扒点。事实上1820年以来的袄技术变革不是浪潮式的而是连肮续推进的，目前有足够证据把摆18202001这段时间熬划分为5个不同的发展阶段。半其中19501973年是一个无可比拟的繁荣的黄金时败代，这个时期世界GDP年均增长5，世界贸易年均增长摆8，人均收入有明显趋同趋拔势，大部分地区经济增长都快伴于美国

7、。1973年以后，世阿界经济增长明显下降，各地区奥的差异加大，但是基于世界的肮角度，最近这个阶段仍然是增懊长表现名列第二的阶段。区分办领导国家和跟随国家对于研究八技术的动态传播和赶超过程是傲非常重要的，伴“懊领导扮”敖国家指那些处于技术前沿的国爸家，而版“版跟随翱”哀国家指劳动生产率较低的国家安。1500年以来共有4个领安导国家，16世纪的意大利，爱16世纪至拿破仑战争时期的按荷兰，此后的英国和1890般年后的美国。颁对1820年以来英国、美国扮和日本的增长分析，最早考虑傲的是劳动力投入和生产率，战安后资本成了一个非常重要的增巴长因素，之后又有观点将安“傲人力资本澳”搬看作生产要素。Denis

8、o碍n扩展增长分析方法指出18笆20年以来英国、美国和日本袄经济增长表现出以下一些显著邦特点：物质资本大量增长，非熬居住建筑和机器设备增加非常碍明显，伴随在机器设备中加速吧的技术进步。教育水平大大提芭高，英国提高了8倍，美国和哀日本11倍。人均劳动投入在扒英国和日本下降了40，在俺美国下降了20。对外贸易芭占GDP的比重在英国由3白增至25，日本0.2至半13，美国2至10。败自然资源的缺乏对增长并不构矮成限制，人均土地在美国下降捌了14倍，英国和日本下降了耙4倍。能源的投入增长比较温傲和，美国人均增长了3倍，英扳国6倍，日本8倍。碍15001820年的商人癌资本主义年代叭关于商人资本主义年代

9、（15唉001820）经济表现，艾在18世纪末就已经存在两种懊不同的解释。亚当、斯密乐观霸地认为，美洲大陆和新航线的凹发现给大型经济，国际贸易和版专业化的发展创造了新的机会癌，虽然因为对贸易的共同限制败，这些机会不能被充分利用。爸马尔萨斯则悲观论则认为，经摆济表现取决于人口增长和固定肮的土地供给间的平衡，技术进坝步、资本形成和国际贸易专业瓣化的因素被忽略，因此只有通扳过灾难（战争、饥荒、疾病）爱才能实现平衡。这两种观点对敖立一直存在。此外悲观的看法瓣有了一些其他的支持，LeR白oy Ladurie认为法肮国13001720年的经疤济是停滞的，真实工资论者则坝更加悲观他们有人认为英国1斑820年

10、的生活水平比150哀0年下降了44等等。皑关于15001820不同搬国家和地区的经济表现，Ku扮znets在1965年提出凹了关于西欧人口率和人均GD敖P增长的一个非常有影响的假埃说，认为西欧发达国家150挨01750年可能的（并且柏或许是最大的）长期人均产出颁年均增长率为0.2%。对上绊述假说验证表明，西欧150扳01820年人均年增长率肮为0.14，显著小于Ku傲znets估计，美洲国家整哀体而言人均GDP增长快于西敖欧，非洲南部和北部的发展差般异比较明显，亚洲国家整体而挨言收入水平是停滞的，日本的凹人均表现要好于中国和印度，伴但是非常明显中国这个时期有伴着广泛的增长，它在人口大量袄增长的

11、情况下生活水平并没有啊下降并且GDP的增长与西欧翱一样显著。把在分析商人资本主义时代的增摆长时，增长分析的方法就不再班适用了。研究表明，人均劳动袄投入、资本和人力资本、知识把在这个时期都有增加，但是非罢常明显的是全球化在这个时期阿起到了比以往更加重要的作用艾，相对来说全球化在这段时期瓣的作用比在20世纪还要重要敖。西方造船业和航海的巨大发昂展，使世界贸易在1500安1820年增长了20倍。欧胺洲国家还从殖民地，非洲奴隶皑贸易中获取了很多利益。美洲斑国家则经历了生态、技术和人般口的转型。引进新的农作物提芭高了粮食的产量；马和其他牲阿畜的引入则改善了交通条件；案欧洲各种技术的引入也有助于肮经济的发

12、展；欧洲疾病使2/爱3土著居民死亡，加上欧洲人艾和非洲奴隶大量涌入，改变了摆美洲的人口结构。非洲和亚洲办国家也引入了美洲农作物。此摆外还存在大陆间的技术传递，芭欧洲向美洲输出武器、工具、吧车辆、船和造船技术、印刷、阿文字、教育和政治经济机构，案欧洲采矿技术在美洲应用生产扒出大量金银供欧洲与亚洲进行拌贸易，同时期欧洲从亚洲引入叭了纺织和陶瓷技术。班与亚当斯密和马尔萨斯关于商拔人资本主义的对立解释相对应笆，关于现代化的根源有非常不跋同的看法。有一个学派认为现阿代经济增长源于工业革命，而袄之前则是几个世纪的马尔萨斯疤停滞。很多人支持这个观点，班但是这些观点在根本上是错误白的。事实上向现代资本主义过靶

13、渡经历了长时间的准备。首先芭是教育和知识的传播由于印刷敖术的发明和推广而变革；其次拌造船业和航海业到1820年盎也发生了变革，船只的设计、埃装备和天文知识都大大改善，挨有了精确的航海指导等等。这奥些进展都是科研努力的结果。阿无疑，欧洲的这些发展是19伴和20世纪经济更快发展的前伴奏，欧洲的现代化不是一蹴而拔就的。（任丽达、卢锋整理） -艾-巴-八-爱-扮-八-碍 发贴时间： 2004-1盎0-17 2:28:56 板 218.31.*.* 颁 八 errantking 等级：贫农财产：经验：魅力： 注册：2003-9-7 文章：55 鉴定：保密 败-斑-挨-啊-袄-傲-靶- 稗Measurin

14、g and版 Interpreting版 World Econom翱ic Performanc拜e 1500-2001*敖Angus Maddiso按n胺This is a sui巴table occasio暗n for surveyi凹ng the progre碍ss achieved, 皑in the past 6爱0 years, in q巴uantifying wo颁rld economic 凹development, 岸and analysing摆 the causal i拌nfluences whi隘ch determine 笆the pace and 罢pattern of gr

15、翱owth. This wa疤s a major obj百ective of the般 founding fat拌hers of the I吧nternational 岸Association f跋or Research i笆n Income and 班Wealth (IARIW昂). The initia拜tive for crea肮ting an assoc啊iation includ艾ing both acad挨emics and off扳icial statist佰icians came f八rom Simon Kuz阿nets (1901-85啊), the pionee矮r of

16、quantita氨tive economic艾 history. Mil把ton Gilbert (肮1909-79) and 埃Richard Stone挨 (1913-1991) 叭were strategi埃c partners wi拌th enormous i版nternational 扒leverage in c佰reating and d埃iffusing stan挨dard procedur扳es for constr碍uction of com岸parable natio扳nal accounts 跋by official s暗tatistical of扒fices.奥This

17、 paper an阿alyses the de拌velopment of 斑macro-measure凹ment in three八 epochs:安a) for the IA摆RIW epoch, ba盎ck to 1950, t爱he main purpo霸se has been t安o illuminate 靶policy option败s to improve 爱growth perfor班mance at the 斑national leve癌l and to anal颁yse inter-cou敖ntry divergen吧ce in real in凹come levels t拜o

18、 help devise罢 policies for懊 catch-up. We稗 now have off奥icial estimat八es of growth 稗and levels fo伴r the vast bu笆lk of the wor皑ld economy fr疤om 1950 onwar佰ds.芭b) For the Ku盎znetsian epoc矮h of “modern 爸economic grow板th” back to 1癌820, quantita啊tive economic俺 historians h柏ave made grea瓣t progress in挨 me

19、asuring wo伴rld economic 靶growth and in叭 quantifying 罢the forces de袄termining per艾formance. The昂re is scope f跋or further re敖search to fil鞍l gaps and cr班osscheck exis坝ting estimate班s, but the br按oad contours 敖of developmen霸t in this per半iod are not u叭nder serious 敖challenge.罢c) for the “m案erchant capi

20、t爸alist” epoch,懊 1500-1820, t跋here are shar艾ply divergent巴 interpretati氨ons about wor把ld, and parti颁cularly Europ氨ean performan奥ce. The dicho伴tomy between 挨positive and 佰negative asse摆ssments start癌ed with Adam 傲Smith and Mal啊thus at the e吧nd of the 18t胺h century. In哎 my view, the肮 evidence for挨 the

21、 Malthusi跋an view is sh凹oddy.盎Historians us霸ually start a鞍t the beginni盎ng of their c搬hronology. Qu鞍antitative ec扒onomic histor碍ians have to 癌work backward哀s from the pr啊esent, procee疤ding from wha斑t is known an板d accepted, t凹o earlier epo案chs where evi罢dence is weak拔er and there 叭is greater re疤lian

22、ce on clu半es and conjec暗ture. 艾*This is the 稗first Ruggles肮 Lecture, del稗ivered at the半 28th IARIW G唉eneral Confer啊ence, Cork, I拌reland August跋 2004I跋(i) Standardi埃sed Estimates袄 of GDP Growt阿h for 1950 on翱wards唉The standardi白sed accounts provide a coh爱erent macroec坝onomic framew哀ork covering 埃the w

23、hole eco笆nomy, crossch佰ecked in thre吧e ways. From 叭the income si罢de, they are 凹the total of 瓣wages, rents 阿and profits. 癌On the demand凹 side, they a坝re the sum of袄 final expend爸itures by con傲sumers, inves皑tors and gove笆rnment. From 颁the productio爸n side, the s霸um of value a哎dded in diffe百rent sector

24、s-澳agriculture, 唉industry and 八services, net伴 of duplicati捌on.阿Milton Gilber般t had been re板sponsible for吧 the official啊 US accounts 邦during the wa白r and from 19瓣50 to 1961 wa盎s head of sta埃tistics and n傲ational accou搬nts in OEEC. 俺The Marshall 癌Plan required翱 criteria for瓣 aid allocati埃on, and NATO

25、笆needed them f翱or its burden霸-sharing exer熬cises. Gilber般t met these r巴equirements b爱y pushing off安icial statist办ical offices 岸of the 16 OEE半C member coun败tries to adop岸t the standar岸dised system 案of accounts d阿esigned by Ri跋chard Stone. 扳Stone set up 摆a programme i肮n Cambridge t百o train offic半ial E

26、uropean 案statisticians暗 to implement般 the standard半ised system. 按A set of nati扮onal handbook氨s was prepare凹d to explain 邦the problems 肮of adjustment唉 to the stand矮ardised syste癌m, and a firs百t comparative袄 set of accou碍nts for the 1拌6 countries f办or 1938 and 1昂947-52 was pu懊blished by OE傲EC in 1954,

27、 w霸ith extensive哀 notes explai敖ning the adju哀stments which敖 had been mad癌e to achieve 霸comparability般.氨In 1953, Ston罢e became chai暗rman of a Uni蔼ted Nations c哀ommission whi隘ch establishe唉d a system of绊 accounts for艾 worldwide ap肮plication. Th摆e UN could no隘t exert as mu艾ch leverage o袄n its member 吧c

28、ountries to 芭conform as wa翱s possible in拌 OEEC. The co熬mmunist count般ries used the跋 Soviet SMS (盎system of mat埃erial account扒s) which had 傲a narrower de懊finition of p昂roductive act板ivity (exclud懊ing many serv罢ice activitie绊s), involved 懊serious doubl把e counting (m邦easuring gros巴s output with八out ded

29、ucting胺 inter-sector氨 transfers of绊 inputs) and 颁exaggerated e拌conomic growt蔼h. The price 敖system and ta板x-structures 唉were differen罢t from those 熬in capitalist癌 countries, a扒nd measuremen挨t conventions班 gave incenti挨ves to exagge哎rate quality 拔change when n挨ew products w拜ere introduce鞍d. Abram Berg

30、八son (1914-200盎3) pioneered 埃procedures fo埃r re-estimati邦on of Soviet 哀GDP on a basi叭s correspondi碍ng approximat班ely to Wester般n conceptions笆 in coverage,吧 with elimination of doubl吧e-counting, a隘nd repricing 办on an “adjust懊ed factor cos袄t” basis with坝 imputation f哀or capital co俺sts which wer阿e not

31、conside佰red in Soviet捌 accounting. 敖These correct扳ive procedure笆s were applie碍d to Soviet s蔼tatistics by 俺a team of CIA懊 Sovietologis扒ts in Washing哎ton. In New Y八ork, Thad Alt斑on and his co翱lleagues did 伴the same for 岸Bulgaria, Cze案choslovakia, 拜East Germany,懊 Poland, Roma哀nia and Yugos哀lavia. This

32、w翱ork was finan般ced for intel芭ligence purpo肮ses, but was 拔publicly avai绊lable in annu爱al reports to胺 the US Congress (see Madd八ison 1998b).按In the 1990s 挨most of these坝 countries ad澳opted the sta肮ndardised SNA阿 system in pr摆inciple, but implementatio奥n was complic癌ated by the m扒assive change蔼 in own

33、ership半, in the leve安l and structu把re of prices,扮 allocation o颁f resources b按etween consum搬ption and inv拜estment, and 版statistical r吧eporting proc蔼edures. It wi熬ll take some 俺years before 胺these problem敖s can be full矮y resolved. T斑he IMF contin扒ues to use ex笆aggerated mea罢sures of GDP 摆growth for th

34、懊ese countries扳. As a result碍, it shows a 阿growth in wor扳ld GDP averag扳ing 3.9 perce哎nt a year for捌 1970-200, co唉mpared with m疤y estimate of埃 3.3 percent.扳 For China it靶 shows growth按 averaging 8.半5 per cent a 班year, whereas坝 my adjusted 耙measure shows艾 a growth rat皑e of 6.5 per 耙cent (see Mad绊dison

35、, 2003, 唉p. 231).办Another area 埃of weakness i百s Africa, whe耙re there was 熬and still is 版a great short盎age of skills岸 and money fo唉r such work i败n a large num班ber of newly 邦created count凹ries. The gap奥 in estimates斑 of GDP growt哎h was filled 傲in substantia隘l degree by t靶he OECD Devel叭opment Centre把 w

36、hich compil巴ed annual est艾imates of rea邦l GDP growth 跋1950-90 for 5暗1 African cou摆ntries. The C氨entre benefit埃ed from the e伴xpertise of D澳erek Blades, 敖who had been 邦chief statist拔ician in Mala罢wi for eight 板years, and by矮 David Robert耙s who had sim懊ilar experien拌ce in Gambia.八 般A third probl百em in

37、the ass拔essment of GDP growth perf俺ormance in th俺e higher inco唉me countries 哀derives from 氨recent change暗s in measurem案ent conventio埃ns from 1995 霸onwards, invo叭lving adoptio叭n of hedonic 捌indexes to ad摆just for assu拜med changes in quality of 班product, use 袄of chain indi氨ces, and trea埃tment of cons稗

38、umer software绊 as investmen罢t. 颁Hedonic indic绊es are perfec安tly respectab斑le in small d伴oses, but one扮 can be skept安ical about th傲e widespread 埃assumption th癌at quality ch搬anges have be半en so large a柏nd monotonica版lly positive.蔼 In the USA, 叭where the swi百tch to hedoni胺cs was most s哎ignificant, t挨he

39、ir net impa般ct was to rai颁se the measur坝ed rate of gr跋owth to a som笆ewhat greater扮 degree than 碍in Western Eu坝rope and Japa疤n. US officia拜l estimates g胺o back to 192拔9, and the ch艾anges in meas暗urement techn捌ique had thei按r biggest imp败act for 1929-霸50, raising t搬he GDP growth哀 rate for tha奥t period

40、 from啊 2.6 percent 皑a year to 3.5芭. There was n叭o counterpart柏 to this long拌 retrospectiv翱e readjustmen氨t in other co稗untries, and 扮I have contin艾ued to use th半e earlier US 坝official meas熬ure for 1929-昂50 (for reaso氨ns explained 绊in Maddison, 懊2001, p. 138,摆 and Maddison绊, 2003, pp.79坝-80). More th奥

41、an 40 years a蔼go, Milton Gi拔lbert warned 肮that such adj耙ustments coul跋d open Pandor按as box: “In 盎the end, they暗 would make i跋t impossible 奥to construct measures of o爸utput and pri氨ce changes th碍at are useful般 to the study疤 of economic 绊growth” (Gilb把ert, 1961, p.蔼 287). The da暗nger which ar绊ises fro

42、m an 扮overdose of h板edonics is di版scussed in Ap稗pendix 3.爸Ed Denison (1熬915-1992) exp败ressed opposi背tion to chang胺es in nationa奥l accounting 艾which treat a佰ccretions of 爱knowledge as 稗investment. H安e considered 拔this a “miscl把assification”蔼 which made “暗growth analys办is chaotic” (八see Denison, 阿1989

43、, p. 10).熬 A major just隘ification for暗 his complain般t was that hi瓣s growth acco爱unts included啊 “human capit安al”, i.e. inc拔rements in th安e quality of 蔼the labour fo版rce due to in敖creases in th扒e level of ed蔼ucation.翱In fact, the 版only form of 颁knowledge whi俺ch is now tre稗ated as inves胺tment is comp扮u

44、ter software拜. It is odd t白o treat this 霸rapidly depre巴ciating knowl岸edge as inves跋tment, whilst傲 ignoring the百 more durable巴 influence of百 books and education.岸(ii) Purchasi巴ng Power Conv按erters for Cr颁oss-country C绊omparison of 颁GDP Levels 拔Once standard爱ised accounts奥 of real GDP 搬growth in nat摆i

45、onal currenc搬ies had been 白established f胺or all OEEC c岸ountries, the背 next step to扒 facilitate i暗nter-country 疤comparison an阿d multi-count拜ry aggregatio吧n was the dev蔼elopment of p盎urchasing pow盎er parity con罢verters (PPPs柏) to measure 袄real GDP leve鞍ls, rather th氨an relying on百 exchange rat癌e compa

46、rison.胺 The first OE艾EC study, co-拜authored by M般ilton Gilbert傲 and Irving K伴ravis (1916-9靶2). appeared 奥in 1954, a se跋cond in 1958.伴 They compare绊d real expend拌iture levels 扮in 8 OEEC cou芭ntries. A thi扮rd volume by 邦Paige and Bom拔bach (1959) c背ompared real 敖output levels蔼 in the UK an昂d USA. Kravis

47、扳 and his coll捌eagues, Alan 岸Heston and Ro碍bert Summers 巴improved the 奥methodology o埃f PPP estimat办ion in their 碍ICP project a哀t the Univers翱ity of Pennsy柏lvania from 1靶968 onwards.搬The OEEC stud艾ies were bina爱ry comparison阿s between pai爸rs of countri矮es. The three叭 options were绊 i) a Paasche瓣 PPP,

48、with “o靶wn-country” q颁uantity weigh耙ts; ii) a Las笆peyres PPP wi拜th the quanti拔ty weights of霸 the numerair耙e country-the胺 United State板s; iii) a com跋promise geome肮tric (Fisher)叭 average of the first two 靶measures. The矮 correspondin半g measures of肮 real expendi笆ture were: i)哎 Laspeyres co搬mparisons of

49、熬GDP levels ba扒sed on the pr拌ices (unit va拜lues) of the 懊numeraire cou绊ntry; ii) Paa盎sche level co吧mparisons bas傲ed on “own-co跋untry绊”埃 prices (unit澳 values); iii摆) a Fisher ge艾ometric avera叭ge of the two扳 measures. Bi啊nary comparis搬ons, e.g. Ger版many/USA and 氨UK/USA, could斑 then be link啊ed with the

50、 U捌SA as the sta芭r country. Su俺ch star compa皑risons could 吧provide a pro八xy Germany/UK哀 comparison, 摆but it was no芭t “transitive背” (i.e. the r熬esult would n肮ot be identic背al to that de癌rived from a 凹direct German稗y/UK comparis翱on). This was吧 not a great 般drawback for 唉OEEC countrie板s where the i挨nte

51、r-country 稗deviation in 佰performance l皑evels was not皑 too wide. Bu爸t Kravis, Hes啊ton and Summe阿rs were engag邦ed in compari埃sons over a m爱uch wider ran白ge of per cap捌ita income. T啊hey therefore癌 adopted the 鞍Geary-Khamis 盎method, inven颁ted by Roy Ge盎ary (1896-198扒3) and Salem 澳Khamis, which multilate

52、ral班ised the resu隘lts, provided扳 transitivity俺 and other de碍sirable prope般rties. They u阿sed it in con斑junction with伴 the commodit翱y product dum捌my method (CP捌D), invented 捌by Robert Sum巴mers, for fil奥ling holes in奥 the basic da凹taset. Their 版masterpiece w巴as their thir碍d study, the 芭1982 volume W稗or

53、ld Product 疤and Income, w矮hich containe安d estimates f岸or 34 countri爱es (in Africa班, the America碍s, Asia and E奥urope) in 197氨5 prices and 疤international昂 Geary-Khamis吧 dollars. The盎se countries 碍accounted for笆 64 per cent 懊of world GDP 八in 2001.案Table 1 Natur搬e of PPP Conv傲erters to Est傲imate GDP Lev

54、笆els in the Be拔nchmark Year 柏1990摆(billion 1990巴 Geary-Khamis敖 dollars and 拌number of cou柏ntries)翱Europe & Lati摆n Asia Africa绊 World矮W. Offshoots 佰America 俺ICP 15,273 (2爸8) 2,131 (18)翱 8,017 (24) 0白 (0) 25,421 (拌70)扮PWT 59 (3) 71斑 (14) 524 (16坝) 891 (51) 1,胺516 (84)暗Proxies 16 (1隘0) 38 (15) 87阿 (17)

55、 14 (6) 癌155 (48)耙Total 15,349 白(41) 2,240 (4板7) 8,628 (57)奥 905 (57) 27,癌122(202)版Source: Maddi盎son (2003), p啊. 230癌The UN Statis半tical Office 背extended the 摆ICP work and 斑had covered 8拌4 countries b版y 1985. UNSO 瓣then dropped 瓣this endeavou盎r, though som埃e of the regi把onal UN bodie把s continued w蔼i

56、th it. The O板ECD recommenc白ed its compar暗isons on a re傲gular basis i熬n 1982. Its l皑atest work co岸vered the 28 版OECD countrie矮s and 20 othe按rs (in Easter坝n Europe, the笆 15 successor胺 states of th百e USSR, and M八ongolia). Ala坝n Heston and 拌Robert Summer胺s produce sho芭rt-hand estim艾ates of PPPs 拜and rea

57、l inco扒me levels for矮 countries fo疤r which full-袄scale ICP typ蔼e measures ar按e not availab邦le. As a resu版lt, we now ha案ve reasonably暗 acceptable P坝PP adjusted m哎easures avail岸able for over般 99 percent o氨f world GDP,翱There were th颁ree Eurostat 把estimates (fo百r 1980, 1985 巴and 1993) of 暗PPPs for 22 A板

58、frican countr疤ies, but the 霸results were 坝erratic, and 芭I preferred t胺o use the more comprehensi拜ve and plausi艾ble results o柏f the Penn Wo啊rld Tables (s碍ee Summers an啊d Heston, Oct啊ober 2002). T疤able 1 summarises the natu矮re of the PPP白 estimates I 按used to creat澳e my 1990 ben佰chmark estima碍tes of w

59、orld 疤GDP.半Table 2 World摆s 10 Largest稗 Countries: C氨omparative Ra岸nking, 1950 &伴 2001, at con败stant矮1990 prices, 佰using 1990 Ge啊ary-Khamis PP阿P converters 邦and 1990 exch霸ange rates靶1950 2001 195唉0 2001艾GDP $billion,摆 with 1990 PP安P conversion 瓣$billion, wit爱h 1990 exchan阿ge rate八USA 1,456 7,9澳66 1,4

60、56 7,96斑6芭China 240 4,5肮70 47 886肮Japan 161 2,6啊25 206 3,358扮India 222 2,0扒03 62 558案Germany 265 1唉,537 337 1,95八1班France 221 1,把258 261 1,491败UK 348 1,202 皑363 1,253俺Italy 165 1,1绊01 191 1,272氨Brazil 89 990邦 58 638埃Russia 315 79癌1 154 388伴GDP per head 澳1990 PPP $ 19暗90 ER $ 暗USA 9,561 27,捌948 9,561