绿色交易观察

1、About thisreportForeword: Reaching compromise Page 5Analysis: four dimensionsPage 9Interview: Christian Zinglersen, Director, ACER HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Page 17Roadmap Page 22This is the fourth issue of the Green Deal Watch, a quarterly report produced by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) wi

2、th the support of Edison. This publication aims at monitoring and analysing the initiatives launched by the European Commission and discussed by the EU institutions and Member States under the umbrella of the Green Deal.This Green Deal Watch will cover the new, greater range of topics anticipated by

3、 Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. We present a general analytical Foreword at the beginning of each publication, followed by the in-depth monitoring of Green Deal activities, divided according to a breakdown revolving around a set of four dimensions, d

4、esigned to match the guidelines so far expressed by the von der Leyen Commission.These are:Driving the Green Deal, which will look at the macro areas of Energy and Transport. It will analyse the technological and policy evolution for renewables, sustainable mobility, and green gases and hydrogen, wi

5、th a strong focus on the energymarket (both for gas and electricity) and energy efficiency. 3Greening industry, which will observe and discuss the reconversion of industry and of energy-intensive sectors in particular, with specific attention to the role of digitalisation, the upscaling of new techn

6、ologies, R&I&D (Research, Innovation and Deployment) and circularity.Supporting the transformation, which will focus on energy governance, EU financing and funds, the Just Transition Mechanism and the repositioning of institutions such as the European Investment Bank (EIB).Strengthening security and

7、 diplomacy, which will tackle energy diplomacy aspects with specific attention to the Mediterranean, Africa, Russia, Asia and the US, as well as climate security and diplomacy and the role of the EU as a leader in the fight against global warming.These four dimensions are followed by an in-depth sec

8、tion, where we will cover different kinds of content in each issue. This time we look at the opinion of Christian Zinglersen, the Director of the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), in an interview published after the analysis of the four dimensions. A Roadmap of i

9、nitiatives envisaged under the European Green Deal concludes this report.This Green Deal Watch aims at providing continuity to the analysis produced in the 16 issues of the Energy Union Watch (available HYPERLINK https:/www.iai.it/en/ricerche/energy-union-watch here), the quarterly publication IAI d

10、edicated to the Juncker Commission, which covered the whole five years of activities.4Fore wordReachingcompromi seThe EU is gearing up for the upcoming COP26 and is thus putting its house in order, speeding up a few developments, expanding its ambition and putting aside the most contested issues (fo

11、r the time being). This willingness to bring results to the table emerged during the first months of the Portuguese Presidency which, above all, managed to finalise the fundamental Climate Law and the targets it contained. The presidency motto itself was quite self-explanatory, a meaningful “time to

12、 deliver: a fair, green and digital recovery”. Nevertheless, it was the Commission that was in the front line of this process; having secured the Climate Law thanks to ambitious co-legislators, it speeded up thorny conversations, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Internally, t

13、he lengthy negotiations needed for key topics, such as the green taxonomy, or the limited political appeal of a number of much needed measures, particularly energy efficiency, led to a decreased attention to such issues, which risk remaining in limbo possibly even until the end of 2022.The agreement

14、 on the Climate Law was reached after a long night of negotiations on 21 April and was welcomed as a breakthrough by many. While the final law maintained the 55 per cent emission reduction target that had been proposed by member states although MEPs insisted on a 60per cent target it did include man

15、y of the requests made by Parliament. This has made the reduction commitment more solid, as it includes a process for setting a 2040 climate target, a cap on reductions from land use, agriculture and forestry (which several member states, particularly from Northern Europe, had opposed) and the estab

16、lishment of a scientific advisory board monitoring the alignment of EU policies with the targets. MEPs had to drop demands on fossil fuel subsidies in the Climate Law. Member states managed to maintain a target that is legally binding only on the European, and not the national, level. This is potent

17、ially a key weakness which, should the Commission lack the ability to balance the often-uncoordinated action of member states, could threaten the blocs climate ambition.Harmonising the policies and targets of European countries in the energy and climate sectors has indeed always been a tough job, an

18、d latest developments show that there is still significant room for improvement in this sense. As of early May, only 14 member states had presented their national plans and a few countries had already requested a postponement. Some, such as Romania, had done so due to a disagreement between the nati

19、onal and the EU interpretation on key issues, such as infrastructure for transport, agriculture and gas projects.Even among the already submitted 5plans, interpretations are varied and often misaligned between the different national and European visions. This applies to the share of green and digita

20、l projects, but also (and perhaps mostly) to the meaning of the “do not do significant harm” principle, the key concept behind the evaluation of the environmental sustainability of the plans. This is nothing new: already in HYPERLINK /section/climate-environment/news/czechs-lead-the-charge-against-e

21、us-do-no-harm-green-criteria/ March, Poland, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic opposed the limitations imposed by the principle, while countries such as Denmark pushed for even stricter restrictions, following a debate which had started already in the summer of 2020 and which likely also delayed the f

22、inalisation of the EU taxonomy.A full, commonly agreed taxonomy would have likely prevented such a heterogeneity among plans, but reaching a more ambitious agreement in a short time and on delicate topics would perhaps have been impossible. The Commission did HYPERLINK https:/ec.europa.eu/commission

23、/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_1804 unveil a first set of rules on 21 April, following the publication of the HYPERLINK https:/ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/sustainable-finance/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en#201120 draft HYPERLINK https:/ec.europa.eu/info/business-

24、economy-euro/banking-and-finance/sustainable-finance/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en#201120 delegated acts on 20 November 2020, but it left out some key topics: nuclear, gas and farming. Unexpectedly, the final taxonomy rules included bioenergy and forestry (which were originally excluded in a

25、 draft HYPERLINK /section/energy-environment/news/leak-eu-taxonomy-draft-leaves-bioenergy-and-forestry-off-the-hook/ leaked a couple of days before publication of the final document). Bioenergy is considered “carbon neutral” and quite lax restrictions have been applied to forestry. This move is in l

26、ine with Finnish and Swedish policies but is very likely to promote the use of pellets and firewood, which could be unsustainable for European climate and biodiversity protection ambitions. These half-defined taxonomy rules will prove of limited value for structuring the upcoming stream of investmen

27、ts and will deprive the Commission of a fundamental tool in the difficult harmonisation process it will face in the months to come. Furthermore, this taxonomy outcome confirms the ambiguous stance that the Commission6still holds on gas, on its possible role as a bridge fuel and on its life expectanc

28、y in the future European energy mix. While the fact that gas is unlikely to have a long-term role has been stressed by VP Timmermans in his March Eurogas speech, it might still have a role in the short and medium term. The Commission is silently moving towards accepting natural gas generation in its

29、 hydrogen plans, a perspective HYPERLINK /section/energy-environment/news/meps-back-natural-gas-as-a-bridge-to-100-renewable-hydrogen/ confirmed also by MEPs in January and already by the European Council of the 10 and 11 December 2020 (as clearly stated by the Conclusions, which HYPERLINK https:/ww

30、w.consilium.europa.eu/media/47296/1011-12-20-euco-conclusions-en.pdf refer to natural gas a transition technology).The Green Deal is clearly not only about energy, and the publication of the Adaptation Strategy and decisive action on the Biodiversity Strategy proved this. Both actions directly conne

31、ct to the COP26 conversations. The Adaptation Strategy strengthens EU action in an area which will be central to COP26 and to which the Union has dedicated very little attention (and budget) in the past years, considering that the previous Strategy dated back to 2013. The urgency to publish somethin

32、g on the topic has however limited the ability of the Commission to deliver a truly ambitious strategy, as the document offers very little to work on. As a matter of fact, it contains no targets and no practical measures or tools, either on the domestic or on the international side (the latter would

33、 be key to reinforce the EUs climate leadership vis-vis developing countries). Concerning the Biodiversity Strategy, Europe is by contrast much more serious and aims at proposing a target of protecting 30 per cent of territories to the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

34、 A European success during the “other” COP to be held in 2021 (originally expected in May in China, and now to be held in October) would indeed reinforce the EUs position for COP26 in November.This is indeed a key moment forthe EUs climate and environmental diplomacy. Europe has started to realign w

35、ith the US on climate action. However, differences remain. Europe adopts a systematic, multi-sectorial and regulatory approach to reduce emissions (also aiming at influencing consumer behaviour), while the US focuses on private investments and technological innovation. This sort of “ HYPERLINK /cont

36、ent/b95de724-75c8-4155-88ed-5808fb761942 techno-optimism” raises concerns over the US ability to actually achieve the net-zero target promised by Biden, also considering the historic lack of legislation and policy tools in the country and the gaps left by the Trump administration and many before him

37、. Other areas in which the two have often conflicted, such as the inclusion of international aviation in the European Emission Trading System, see signs of relative convergence between the EU and the US. Pressure is mounting on Biden to block Nord Stream 2. Actual issuance of sanctions on the countr

38、ies involved in the project may deliver a dramatic blow to transatlantic relations. Collaboration between the EU and the US is fundamental to achieving success at COP26. The type of engagement with China needs to be discussed. The recent alignment of Brussels and Washington on sanctions against Beij

39、ing may somehow threaten the formation of a much-desired “ HYPERLINK https:/www.politico.eu/article/u-s-and-eu-search-for-a-china-climate-strategy-after-snub/ climate club” and the boosting of decarbonisation in China which is made harder by the quick post-pandemic recovery in China and the difficul

40、ties that the country is experiencing in phasing out coal (after promising results in the immediate aftermath of the Paris Agreement). The adoption of new decarbonisation targets in Asia, especially after the Climate Summit organised by President Biden, is an encouraging sign.Additionally, much deba

41、te was sparked by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). One year ago the idea was only debated in very general terms in Brussels, but a recent resolution by Parliament andgrowing conversations around the EUs enhanced climate ambition will result in a Commission-proposed initiative that, if

42、successfully negotiated in the second half of 2021, could become effective already at the beginning of 2023. Discussions on potential pilot sectors to be subject to a CBAM are ongoing. In practice, the proposal could have complex interactions with the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and run into W

43、orld Trade Organization rule compliance issues. While similar initiatives are to be considered by other countries including the US, a CBAM could lead to disputes with commercial partners.Yet, the transition is proceeding quickly in Europe and increasingly ambitious measures must sustain it an ETS ex

44、pansion, for example, is now under discussion. In the meantime, wind power is booming in the EU and the growth of new markets partly makes up for the loss of the UK as a contributor to EU wind power production. Poland, known for the support that its decision- makers offer to coal, is benefitting fro

45、m renewed attention by international investors to its wind sector. Thanks to pressure from European institutions and the growing returns on investment realised in wind, the country has enacted HYPERLINK /news/new-polish-law-to-back-over-10-gw-of-offshore-wind-projects-728482/ favourable legislation

46、and could soon see the first offshore wind turbines on its long and still completely unexploited Baltic shore. Meanwhile, the EU is consolidating its position on batteries: a new round of 2.9 billion in investments has recently been approved by the Commission and warmly welcomed by VP efovi, who has

47、 seen his vision on batteries gaining momentum since the launch of the Battery Alliance in November 2017 and the approval of a dedicated package of HYPERLINK https:/ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_19_6705 investments in December 2019.In all these processes, a few sectors have been l

48、eft out. This concerns not only the above-mentioned full approval of the taxonomy, but also energy7efficiency, a fundamental yet largely neglected area in the EU energy and climate vision. The launch of the New Bauhaus cultural and technological initiative is part of the much- emphasised Renovation

49、Wave, which has yet to bring practical results to the table, while other relevant measures are yet to be presented by the von der Leyen Commission. The President could repeat the mistake (made by her predecessor) of disregarding a cheap and effective decarbonisation solution which is perhaps penalis

50、ed by the fact that is less spectacular and appealing from a PR perspective than other solutions.Nevertheless, the outlook for energy and climate in Europe looks positive for the months to come, as green recovery plans are taking shape, key legislation is being finalised and the pandemic is slowly l

51、osing its grip onEurope following improvements in the vaccination campaign. It is now key for the EU to use its position to increase its global climate and energy leadership, cooperating while avoiding being overshadowed by Bidens America and losing further ground to China in developing countries. A

52、frica should be at the core of the EUs external energy and climate action, at a time when the pandemic has slowed down the incredible electrification process that many countries, such as Kenya or Ethiopia, have carried forward in the past decade and the EUs support could help restore such momentum.

53、The Portuguese Presidency has already started HYPERLINK https:/www.2021portugal.eu/en/news/a-green-deal-for-africa-to-recover-from-the-crisis-and-reduce-inequalities/#%3A%3Atext%3DNews-%2CA%20%E2%80%9CGreen%20Deal%E2%80%9D%20for%20Africa%20to%20recover%20from%2Cthe%20crisis%20and%20%E2%80%9Creduce%2

54、0inequalities%E2%80%9D%26text%3DIt%20is%20vital%20to%20speed%2Cby%20the%20COVID%2D19%20pandemic talking about an “African Green Deal”: considering the recovery challenges on that continent and the 2022 COP27, likely to be hosted in Africa, this is perhaps the time to put political weight behind this

55、 initiative.8Dimension 1Dri vingthe GreenDealA boom in investments in two key sectors of the Green Deal wind and batteries improves the overall picture for the energy transition in the EU, thanks to a mix of growing trust by investors in the potential to realise significant returns in these technolo

56、gies and renewed support by policy- makers. Energy efficiency, a fundamental yet insufficiently addressed area of intervention, is however still waiting for remarkable action by the von der Leyen team. The Renovation Wave is still in its early phase and the extent of its future impact is still uncle

57、ar. Natural gas is again stimulating a heated debate concerning the future of the green taxonomy (discussed in Dimension 2). Gas is also discussed regarding its role for the production of hydrogen and for the possibility of accessing green labelling. In the last quarter, the Commission extended the

58、debate to other sectors of the Green Deal, taking significant steps on biodiversity protection and, above all, launching its much-expected Adaptation Strategy.At the core of the transition: batteries, wind and efficiencyAt the end of January, the European Commission approved HYPERLINK https:/ec.euro

59、pa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_19_6705 2.9 billion euros worth of investments in batteries, as part of the European Battery Innovation project. Investments in batteries benefitted from their qualification as an Important Project of Common European Interest, thereby gaining an exemption fr

60、om state aid rules. The investments came from 12 countries and are expected to trigger a threefold increase in private investments, including from major players such as FIAT and Volkswagen. This significant push comes at a time when the commercial maturityof wind energy is becoming increasingly evid