《经济学人》杂志原版英文(The Economist整理版4-5)

1、DigestOfThe.Economist.2006(4-5)HottotrotAnewservicehopestodofortextingwhatSkypedidforvoicecallsTALKischeapparticularlysincetheappearanceofvoice-over-internetservicessuchasSkype.Suchservices,whichmakepossibleverycheap(orevenfree)callsbyroutingpartorallofeachcallovertheinternet,haveforcedtraditionalte

2、lecomsfirmstocuttheirprices.Andnowthesamethingcouldbeabouttohappentomobilephonetextmessages,followingthelaunchthisweekofHotxt,aBritishstart-up.UsersdownloadtheHotxtsoftwaretotheirhandsets,justastheywouldagameoraringtone.Theychooseausername,andcanthenexchangeasmanymessagesastheylikewithotherHotxtuser

3、sfor1($1.75)perweek.Themessagesaresentasdatapacketsacrosstheinternet,ratherthanbeingroutedthroughoperatorstextmessaginginfrastructure.Asaresult,userspayonlyatinydata-transportcharge,typicallyofapennyorsopermessage.Sincetextmessagestypicallycost10p,thisisabigsavingparticularlyforthecost-consciousteen

4、agersatwhomtheserviceisaimed.MostteenagersinBritain,andelsewhereinEurope,payfortheirmobilephonesona“pre-paid”basis,ratherthanhavingamonthlycontractwitharegularbill.Pre-paidtariffsarefarmoreexpensive:bundlesoffreetextsandotherspecialdeals,whichcanreducethecostoftextmessaging,aregenerallynotavailable.

5、Forateenagerwhosendssevenmessagesaday,Hotxtcancutthecostoftextingby75%,saving210peryear,saysDougRichard,thefirmsco-founder.Forreallyintensivetext-messagers,thesavingscouldbeevenbigger:JoshDhaliwalofmobileYouth,amarket-researchfirm,saysthatsometeenagerschieflyboysaged15-16andgirlsaged14-15are“superte

6、xters”whosendasmanyas50messagesperday.Whilethissoundslikegoodnewsforusers,itcouldprovepainfulformobileoperators.Text-messagingaccountsforaround20%ofatypicaloperatorsrevenues.Withmarginsontextmessagesinexcessof90%,textingalsoaccountsfornearlyhalfofanoperatorsprofits.MrRichardisconfidentthatthereisnol

7、egalwaythatoperatorscanblockhisservice;theycouldraisedata-transportcosts,butthatwouldunderminetheirowneffortstopushnewservices.Hotxtplanstolaunchinothercountriessoon.“Thechallengeisgettingthatinitialmomentum,”saysMrDhaliwal.Hotxtneedstopersuadepeopletosignup,sothattheywillpersuadetheirfriendstosignu

8、p,andsoon.UnlikeSkype,Hotxtisnotfree,sousersmaybelessinclinedtogiveitatry.ButasSkypehasalsoshown,onceadisruptive,low-costcommunicationsservicestartstospread,itcanquicklybecomeverybigindeed.Andthatinturncanleadtolowerprices,notjustforitsusers,butforeveryone.AdiscerningviewAnewwayofprocessingX-raysgiv

9、esmuchclearerimagesX-RAYSarethemysteriousphenomenonforwhichWilhelmRentgenwasawardedthefirstNobelprizeinphysics,in1901.Sincethen,theyhaveshedtheirmysteryandfoundwidespreaduseinmedicineandindustry,wheretheyareusedtorevealtheinnerpropertiesofsolidbodies.Someproperties,however,aremoreeasilydiscernedthan

10、others.ConventionalXrayimagingreliesonthefactthatdifferentmaterialsabsorbtheradiationtodifferentdegrees.Inamedicalcontext,forexample,bonesabsorbX-raysreadily,andsoshowupwhiteonanX-radiograph,whichisaphotographicnegative.ButXraysarelessgoodatdiscriminatingbetweendifferentformsofsofttissue,suchasmuscl

11、es,tendons,fatandbloodvessels.That,however,couldsoonchange.ForFranzPfeifferofthePaulScherrerInstituteinVilligen,Switzerland,andhiscolleaguesreport,intheAprileditionofNaturePhysic,sthattheyhavemanipulatedstandardX-rayimagingtechniquestoshowmanymoredetailsoftheinnerbody.Thetrickneededtodiscernthisfine

12、detail,accordingtoDrPfeiffer,isasimpleone.TheresearcherstookadvantagenotonlyofhowtissuesabsorbX-raysbutalsoofhowmuchtheyslowtheirpassage.ThisslowingcanbeseenaschangesinthephaseoftheradiationthatemergesinotherwordsoftherelativepositionsofthepeaksandtroughsofthewavesofwhichX-raysarecomposed.Subtlechan

13、gesinphaseareeasilypickedup,sodoctorscandetectevensmallvariationsinthecompositionofthetissueunderinvestigation,suchasmightbecausedbytheearlystagesofbreastcancer.Indeed,thistrickknownasphase-contrastimagingisalreadyusedroutinelyinopticalmicroscopyandtransmissionelectronmicroscopy.Untilnow,however,noo

14、nehadthoughttouseitformedicalX-radiography.Toperformtheirtrick,theresearchersusedaseriesofthreedevicescalledtransmissiongratings.TheyplacedonebetweenthesourceoftheX-raysandthebodyunderexamination,andtwobetweenthebodyandtheX-raydetectorthatformstheimage.Thefirstgratinggathersinformationonthephasesoft

15、heX-rayspassingthroughit.Thesecondandthirdworktogethertoproducethedetailedphase-contrastedimage.TheapproachgeneratestwoseparateimagestheclassicX-rayimageandthephase-contrastedimagewhichcanthenbecombinedtoproduceahigh-resolutionpicture.TheresearcherstestedtheirtechniqueonaCardinaltetra,atinyiridescen

16、tfishcommonlyfoundinfishtanksandaquariums.TheconventionalX-rayimageshowedthebonesandthegutofthefish,whilethephase-contrastedimageshoweddetailsofthefins,theearandtheeye.DrPfeifferstechniquewouldthusappeartoofferawaytogetmuchgreaterdetailforthesameamountofradiationexposure.Moreover,sinceitusesstandard

17、hospitalequipment,itshouldbeeasytointroduceintomedicalpractice.X-raysmaynolongerbethestuffofNobelprizes,buttheirusefulnessmayjusthaveincreasedsignificantly.HerebedragonsWithluck,youmaysoonbeabletobuyamythologicalpetPAOLOFRIL,chairmanandchiefscientificofficerofGeneDupe,basedinSanMelito,California,isa

18、manwithadream.Thatdreamisadragonineveryhome.GeneDupesbusinessisbiotechpets.NotforDrFril,though,themundanecloningofdeadmoggiesandpooches.Heplansarangeofentirelynewanimalsor,rather,ofreallyquiteoldanimals,withthetwistthatevenwhentheydidexist,itwasonlyintheimagination.Makingamythicalcreaturerealisnotea

19、sy.ButGeneDupesteamofbiologistsandcomputerscientistsreckontheyareequaltothetask.Theirsecretisanewfield,whichtheycall“virtualcellbiology”.Biologyandcomputinghavealotincommon,sincebothareaboutprocessinginformationinonecaseelectronic;intheother,biochemical.Virtualcellbiologyaspirestomakeasoftwaremodelo

20、facellthatisaccurateineverybiochemicaldetail.Thatispossiblebecauseallanimalcellsusethesamepartslistmitochondriaforenergyprocessing,theendoplasmicreticulumformakingproteins,Golgibodyforproteinassembly,andsoon.Armedwiththeirvirtualcell,GeneDupesscientistscancustomisetheresultsothatitbelongstoaparticul

21、arspecies,byloadingitwithavirtualcopyofthatanimalsgenome.Then,ifthecellisalsoloadedwiththerightvirtualmolecules,itwillbehavelikeafertilisedegg,andstartdividinganddevelopingfirstintoanembryo,andultimatelyintoanadult.Becausethis“growth”isgoingoninacomputer,ithappensfast.PassingfromeggtoadultinoneofGen

22、eDupesenormousMythmakercomputerstakeslessthanaminute.AnditisherethatCharlesDarwingetsalookin.Withsuchashortgenerationtime,GeneDupesscientistscanaddalittleevolutiontotheirproducts.Eachcomputerstartswithasearchimage(dragon,unicorn,gryphon,etc),andthegenomeoftherealanimalmostcloselyresemblingit(alizard

23、forthedragon,ahorsefortheunicornand,mosttaxingly,thesplicedgenomesofalionandaneagleforthegryphon).Thevirtualgenomesoftheserealanimalsarethentweakedbyrandomelectronicmutations.Whentheyhavematured,thevirtualadultsmostcloselyresemblingthetargetsarepickedandcross-bred,whiletheothersareculled.Usingthisra

24、pidevolutionaryprocess,GeneDupesscientistshavearrivedatgenomesforarangeofmythologicalcreaturesinacomputer,atleast.Thenextstage,onwhichtheyarejustembarking,istodoitforreal.Thisinvolvessynthesising,withactualDNA,thegeneticmaterialthatthecomputermodelspredictwillproducethemythicalcreatures.Thesynthetic

25、DNAistheninsertedintoacellthathashaditsnaturalnucleusremoved.Theresult,DrFrilandhiscommercialbackershope,willbeareallivedragon,unicornorwhathaveyou.TalesoftheunexpectedWhyadrugtrialwentsobadlywrongINANYsortoftest,notleastadrugstrial,oneshouldexpecttheunexpected.Evenso,onMarch13th,sixvolunteerstaking

26、partinasmallclinicaltrialofatreatmentknownasTGN1412gotfarmorethantheybargainedfor.Allendedupseriouslyill,withmultipleorganfailure,soonafterbeinginjectedwiththedrugataspecialtestingunitatNorthwickParkHospitalinLondon,runbyacompanycalledParexel.Onemanremainsillinhospital.Small,preliminarytrialsofthiss

27、ortareintendedtofindoutwhetheradrugistoxic.Nevertheless,themishapwassoseriousthatBritainsMedicinesandHealthcareproductsRegulatoryAgency(MHRA),agovernmentbody,swiftlylaunchedafullinquiry.OnApril5thitannounceditspreliminaryfindings.Thesewerethatthetrialwasruncorrectly,dosesofthedrugweregivenastheywere

28、supposedtohavebeen,andtherewasnocontaminationduringmanufacturing.Inotherwords,itseemsthatdespiteextensivetestsonanimalsandhuman-cellcultures,anddespitethefactthatthedosesinthehumantrialwereonlyafive-hundredthofthosegiventotheanimals,TGN1412istoxicinpeopleinawaythatsimplyhadnotshownup.Thisisadifficul

29、tresultforthedrugbusinessbecauseitraisesquestionsabouttherightwayoftestingmedicinesofthiskind.TGN1412isunusualinthatitisanantibody.Mostdrugsarewhatareknownas“smallmolecules”.Antibodiesarebig,powerfulproteinsthataretheworkhorsesoftheimmunesystem.Amere20ofthemhavebeenapprovedforhumantherapy,orareinlat

30、estageclinicaltrails,inAmericaandEurope,buthundredsareinpre-clinicaldevelopment,andwillsoonneedtobetriedoutonpeople.Mostantibodydrugsaredesignedtoworkinoneofthreeways:byrecruitingpartsoftheimmunesystemtokillcancercells;bydeliveringasmall-moleculedrugoraradioactiveatomspecificallytoacancer;orbyblocki

31、ngunwantedimmuneresponses.Inthatsense,TGN1412wasunusualbecauseitworkedinafourthway.Itiswhatiscalleda“superagonistic”antibody,designedtoincreasethenumbersofatypeofimmunecellknownasregulatoryT-cells.Reducednumbers,orimpairedfunction,ofregulatoryT-cellshasbeenimplicatedinanumberofillnesses,suchastype1d

32、iabetes,multiplesclerosisandrheumatoidarthritis.Boostingthepooloftheseantibodiesseemedlikeagoodtreatmentstrategy.Unfortunately,thatstrategyfelldisastrouslytopiecesanditwilltakealittlelongertofindoutwhy.TheresulthighlightsconcernsraisedinapaperjustpublishedbytheAcademyofMedicalSciences,agroupofexpert

33、sbasedinLondon.Itsaystherearespecialrisksassociatedwithnovelantibodytherapies.Forexample,theirchemicalspecificitymeansthattheymightnotbindtotheirtargetsinhumansastheydoinotherspecies.AccidenceandsubstanceTwopossibleexplanationsforthebulkofrealityTHEunknownpervadestheuniverse.Thatwhichpeoplecansee,wi

34、ththeaidofvarioussortsoftelescope,accountsforjust4%ofthetotalmass.Therest,however,mustexist.Withoutit,galaxieswouldnotsurviveandtheuniversewouldnotbegentlyexpanding,aswitnessedbyastronomers.Whatexactlyconstitutesthisdarkmatteranddarkenergyremainsmysterious,butphysicistshaverecentlyuncoveredsomemorec

35、lues,abouttheformer,atleast.Onepossibleexplanationfordarkmatterisagroupofsubatomicparticlescalledneutrinos.Theseobjectsaresodifficulttocatchthatascreenmadeofleadalight-yearthickwouldstoponlyhalftheneutrinosbeamedatitfromgettingthrough.Yetneutrinosarethoughttobethemostabundantparticlesintheuniverse.S

36、ometenthousandtrilliontrillionmostofthemproducedbynuclearreactionsinthesunreachEartheverysecond.Allbutahandfulpassstraightthroughtheplanetasifitwasntthere.AccordingtotheStandardModel,themostsuccessfuldescriptionofparticlephysicstodate,neutrinoscomeinthreevarieties,called“flavours”.Theseareknownasele

37、ctronneutrinos,tauneutrinosandmuonneutrinos.Again,accordingtotheStandardModel,theyarepoint-like,electricallyneutralandmassless.Butinrecentyears,thisviewhasbeenchallenged,asphysicistsrealisedthatneutrinosmighthavemass.Thefirststrongevidencecamein1998,whenresearchersatanexperimentcalledSuperKamiokande

38、,basedatKamioka,inJapan,showedthatmuonneutrinosproducedbycosmicrayshittingtheupperatmospherehadgonemissingbythetimetheyshouldhavereachedanundergrounddetector.SuperKamiokandesoperatorssuspectthatthemissingmuonneutrinoshadchangedflavour,becomingelectronneutrinosormorelikelytauneutrinos.Theorysuggestst

39、hatthisprocess,calledoscillation,canhappenonlyifneutrinoshavemass.Sincethen,therehavebeenotherreportsofoscillation.ResultsfromtheSudburyNeutrinoObservatoryinCanadasuggestthatelectronneutrinosproducedbynuclearreactionsinthesunchangeintoeithermuonortauneutrinosontheirjourneytoEarth.TwootherJapaneseexp

40、eriments,oneconductedatKamiokaandoneinvolvingtheKEKparticle-acceleratorlaboratoryinTsukuba,nearTokyo,alsohintatoscillation.Lastweek,researchersworkingontheMINOSexperimentatFermilab,nearChicago,confirmedtheseresults.Overthecomingmonthsandyears,theyhopetoproducethemostaccuratemeasurementsyet.Theresear

41、cherscreatedabeamofmuonneutrinosbyfiringanintensestreamofprotonsintoablockofcarbon.OntheothersideofthetargetsataparticledetectorthatmonitoredthenumberofmuonneutrinosleavingtheFermilabsite.Theneutrinosthentraveled750km(450miles)throughtheEarthtoadetectorinaformerironmineinSoudan,Minnesota.Mythsandmig

42、rationDoimmigrantsreallyhurtAmericanworkerswages?EVERYnowandagainAmerica,anationlargelymadeupofimmigrantsandtheirdescendants,isgrippedbyafuriouspoliticalrowoverwhetherandhowitshouldstemthefloodofpeoplewantingtoenterthecountry.Itisinthemidstofjustsuchaquarrelnow.Congressiscontemplatingtheerectionofaw

43、allalongstretchesoftheMexicanborderandacrackdownonillegalworkers,aswellassofterpoliciessuchasaguest-workerprogrammeforillegalimmigrants.Someoftheargumentsareplainsilly.ImmigrationsdefendersclaimthatforeignerscometodojobsthatAmericanswontasifcitieswithfewimmigrantshadnogardeners.Itsopponentssaythatim

44、migrantsstealAmericanjobssuccumbingtothefallacythatthereareonlyafixednumberofjobstogoaround.Onecommonargument,thoughnotsilly,isoftenoverstated:thatimmigrationpushesdownAmericanworkerswages,especiallyamonghigh-schooldropouts.Itisnthardtoseewhythismightbe.Overthepast25yearsAmericanincomeshavebecomeles

45、sequallydistributed,typicalwageshavegrownsurprisinglyslowlyforsuchahealthyeconomyandtherealwagesoftheleastskilledhaveactuallyfallen.Itisplausiblethatimmigrationisatleastpartlytoblame,especiallybecauserecentarrivalshavedisproportionatelypoorskills.Inthe2000censusimmigrantsmadeup13%ofAmericaspoolofwor

46、kers,but28%ofthosewithoutahigh-schooleducationandoverhalfofthosewitheightyearsschoolingorless.Infact,therelationshipbetweenimmigrationandwagesisnotclear-cut,evenintheory.Thatisbecausewagesdependonthesupplyofcapitalaswellaslabour.Alone,aninfluxofimmigrantsraisesthesupplyofworkersandhencereduceswages.

47、Butcheaperlabourincreasesthepotentialreturntoemployersofbuildingnewfactoriesoropeningnewvalet-parkingcompanies.Insodoing,theycreateextrademandforworkers.Oncecapitalhasfullyadjusted,thefinalimpactonoverallwagesshouldbeawash,aslongastheimmigrantshavenotchangedtheproductivityoftheworkforceasawhole.Howe

48、ver,evenifwagesdonotchangeonaverage,immigrationcanstillshifttherelativepayofworkersofdifferenttypes.Alargeinflowoflow-skilledpeoplecouldpushdowntherelativewagesoflow-skillednatives,assumingthattheycompeteforthesamejobs.Ontheotherhand,iftheimmigrantshadcomplementaryskills,nativeswouldberelativelybett

49、eroff.Togaugethefulleffectofimmigrationonwages,therefore,youneedtoknowhowquicklycapitaladjustsandhowfarthenewcomersaresubstitutesforlocalworkers.RoamingholidayTheEUhopestoslashthepriceofcross-bordermobilecalls“TODAYitisonlywhenusingyourmobilephoneabroadthatyourealisetherearestillbordersinEurope,”lam

50、entedVivianeReding,theEuropeancommissionerresponsiblefortelecomsandmediaregulation,assheannouncedplanstoslashthecostofmobileroaminglastmonth.Itisalaudableaim:Europeanconsumerstypicallypay1.25($1.50)perminutetocallhomefromanotherEuropeancountry,and1perminutetoreceivecallsfromhomewhileabroad.Withroami

51、ngmarginsabove90%,Europeanmobileoperatorsmakeprofitsofaround10billionayearfromthetrade,thecommissionestimates.MsRedingsplan,unveiledonMarch28thandupfordiscussionuntilMay12th,istoimposea“homepricing”scheme.Evenwhileroaming,callerswouldbechargedwhatevertheywouldnormallypaytousetheirphonesintheirhomeco

52、untries;chargesforincomingcallswhileroamingwouldbeabolished.Thatmaysoundgood.But,astheindustryisunderstandablyatpainstopointout,itcouldhavesomecuriousknock-oneffects.Inparticular,consumerscouldsignupwithoperatorsinforeigncountriestotakeadvantageoflowerprices.Everyonewouldtakeoutsubscriptionstotheche

53、apestsupplierandbringthembackhome,saysJohnTysoeoftheMobileWorld,aconsultancy.“Youdendupwithacompletemuddle.Anoperatormighthaveanetwork,butnocustomers,becausetheyveallmigrated.”AnotherproblemwithMsRedingsplan,hesays,isthatoperatorswouldcompensateforthelossofroamingfeesthoughttoaccountforaround3%ofthe

54、irrevenuesand5%ofprofitsbyraisingpriceselsewhere.Thiswouldhavetheperverseeffectofloweringpricesforinternationalbusinesstravellers,abigchunkofroamingtraffic,whileraisingpricesformostconsumers.Thecommissionsproposalsare“economicallyincoherent”,saysRichardFeaseyofVodafone,whichoperatesmobilenetworksinm

55、anyEuropeancountries.Imposingpricecapsonroamingislegallyquestionable,hesays,andVodafonehas,inanycase,beensteadilyreducingitsroamingcharges.(EuropeanregulatorspreventeditfromdoingsoforthreeyearsonantitrustgroundsafteritstakeoverofMannesmannin2000.)Orange,anothermultinationaloperator,saysitisplanningt

56、omakepricecuts,too.“Ofcourse,noweverybodysgotpricecuts,”saysStefanoNicolettiofOvum,aconsultancy.ButperhapsMsRedingsunspokenplanistousethethreatofregulationasawaytopromptaction.Operatorsarerightthatherproposalsmakenosense,buttheyarechargingtoomuchallthesame.Soexpectthemtolobbyhardagainsttheproposalso

57、verthenextcoupleofyears,whilequietlycuttingtheirpricesanoutcomethatwould,ofcourse,allowbothsidestoclaimvictory.DevicesandtheirdesiresEngineersandchemistsgettogetherTHEREusedtobeaworldofdifferencebetweentreatingapatientwithadevicesuchasafakehiporapacemakerandusingbiologyandbiochemistry.Differentailme

58、ntsrequiredwhollydifferenttreatments,oftenwithlittleincommon.ButthatischangingasmedicaladvancessuchasthosebeingtrumpetedatthebiotechnologyindustrysannualgatheringthisweekinChicagofostercombinationsofsurgicalimplantsandotherhardwarewithsupportfrommedicines.Drug-releasingstentswereoneofthefirstfruitso

59、fthistrend,whichincreasinglyrequiresvastlydifferentsortsofhealth-carefirmstomeshtheirresearchefforts.Thatwillbeachallenge.Whilepharmaceuticalandbiotechfirmsarealwaysinsearchofthenextbigthing,devicemakersprefergradualprogress.InsteadofhangingoutwithbreathlessentrepreneursnearAmericaseastandwestcoasts

60、,wheremostdrugandbiotechnologyfirmsarebased,manyofthedevice-makershuddleinmidwesterncitiessuchasMinneapolis,IndianapolisandKalamazoo.AndunlikeBigPharma,whichusesmarketingblitzestotellailingconsumersaboutitsnewdrugs,medical-devicesalesteamsactmoreasinstructors,showingdoctorshowtoinstalltheirlatestcre