高位维持支撑经济修复和银行板块逻辑

1、一、存量社融同比+13.6%：信用扩张拐点如期而至11 月存量社融同比增速环比下降 0.05 个百分点，信用扩张拐点如期而至：社融新增 2.13 万亿、预期 1.98 万亿，新增量较去年同期增加 1363亿。存量社融同比增速拐点确认，同比+13.63%，环比下降 0.05%，全年增速预计在 13.5%左右。图表：新口径社融同比增速新增社融（亿）比去年同期增加（亿）同比增速2019/1/3146,79115,37410.85%2019/2/289,665-2,39910.65%2019/3/3129,60212,51111.16%2019/4/3016,710-5,53310.81%2019/5

2、/3117,1245,89011.03%2019/6/3026,2435,87011.19%2019/7/3112,872-5,51010.85%2019/8/3121,956-2,12210.68%2019/9/3025,1422,08110.67%2019/10/318,680-85810.58%2019/11/3019,9373,81010.67%2019/12/3121,0301,71910.69%2020/1/3150,5133,72210.71%2020/2/298,737-92810.65%2020/3/3151,84322,24111.49%2020/4/3031,04214,

3、33212.00%2020/5/3131,86614,74212.53%2020/6/3034,6378,39412.75%2020/7/3116,9184,04612.86%2020/8/3135,87313,91713.27%2020/9/3034,7729,63013.54%2020/10/3114,2005,52013.68%2020/11/3021,3001,36313.63%资料来源：人民银行，细项来看：11 月社融的主要支撑项仍为政府债券，信贷也维持不弱的增长。委贷有一定的高增，预计部分承接了信托贷款的缩量。在信托严监管未松、永煤信用债事件冲击下，新增信托贷款继续缩降；新增企业债

4、规模也较去年同期有较大幅的缩量。图表：新增社融较去年同期增加情况（亿元）社融人民币贷款委托贷款信托贷款未贴现银行承兑汇票债券融资股票融资政府债券A bs核销2019/1/3115,3748,81810-522,3492,935-2111,694-329-712019/2/28-2,399-2,559242-711-3,209141-2604,171132-602019/3/3112,5118,1607808721,688-65-2821,596-126-82019/4/30-5,533-2,255284230-1,811-93-271-870-578572019/5/315,890459939

5、8849721,384-1781,1296-862019/6/305,870-508151,5912,338131-105358336682019/7/31-5,510-4,775-36529-1,819755417-1,571163692019/8/31-2,122-9569327936-157115-3,592-232-262019/9/302,0813,2711,4112181172,41617-5,331-612772019/10/31-858-1,672282742-6005094-1,161436-302019/11/303,8101,331351-219697-5883241,9

6、63-464-902019/12/311,7191,488895-604-72-1,270302286-6384962020/1/313,722-74467387-2,384-8843205,913944-832020/2/29-928-439152-503-8583,019330-2,523-535622020/3/3122,24110,806482-5491,4536,390762,932-422-1102020/4/3014,3327,506618-1069345,30353-1,076-4451442020/5/3114,7423,647358-2851,6041,846947,505

7、-471212020/6/308,3942,292343-8673,5012,203385583-6222382020/7/314,0462,135835-6913,432-596622-968-1,0285042020/8/3113,9171,156983421,2842751,0468,729392922020/9/309,6301,559-295-4871,934-1,0198326,339156982020/10/315,5201,193493-251-364907473,060-4291232020/11/301,3631,667928-714-1,196-2,4682472,284

8、注：11 月暂未披露 abs 和核销数据资料来源：人民银行，社融结构分析。信贷情况：11 月新增信贷略超预期，但总体不算特别突出。11 月新增信贷 1.53 万亿，较去年同期增长 1667 亿。结合前期易行长提的 20 万亿规模目标，预计 12 月信贷投放规模在 1.1 万亿左右，较去年同期略增长 400 亿。表外融资情况：信托持续收缩，新增委贷较去年同期连续两个月正增；未贴现银行承兑汇票规模进一步回落。1）新增信托规模继续收缩，由于年底到期规模较大，预计新增规模继续边际承压。新增委贷也维持缩降，但降幅较去年同期继续收敛。11 月新增信托贷款-1387 亿，新增规模较去年同期下降 714 亿。

9、另年底信托到期规模较大，融资压力较大：上半年信托到期规模 2.1 万亿，下半年到期 3 万亿，其中 12 月合计到期规模 9000 亿。11 月新增委托贷款-31 亿，较去年同期增加 928 亿。2）表外未贴现银行承兑汇票新增规模进一步回落。11 月新增未贴现银行承兑汇票-626 亿，较去年同期下降 1196 亿。图表：新增表内外票据融资及企业短贷占比新增社融（亿元）新增票据融资新增未贴现银行承兑汇票合计新增票据+ 未贴现银行承兑汇票占比新增社融新增企业短贷新增企业短贷占比社融2019/1/315,1603,7878,94719.1%5,91912.6%2019/2/281,695-3,103

10、-1,408-14.6%1,48015.3%2019/3/319781,3652,3437.9%3,10110.5%2019/4/301,874-3571,5179.1%-1,417-8.5%2019/5/311,132-7683642.1%1,2097.1%2019/6/30961-1,311-350-1.3%4,40816.8%2019/7/311,284-4,562-3,278-25.5%-2,195-17.1%2019/8/312,4261572,58311.8%-355-1.6%2019/9/301,790-4311,3595.4%2,55010.1%2019/10/31214-1,

11、053-839-9.7%-1,178-13.6%2019/11/306245701,1946.0%1,6438.2%2019/12/312629511,2135.8%350.2%2020/1/313,5961,4034,9999.9%7,69915.2%2020/2/29634-3,961-3,327-38.9%6,54976.6%2020/3/312,0752,8184,8939.4%8,75216.9%2020/4/303,9105774,48714.5%-62-0.2%2020/5/311,5868362,4227.6%1,2113.8%2020/6/30-2,1042,190860.2

12、%4,05111.7%2020/7/31-1,021-1,130-2,151-12.7%-2,421-14.3%2020/8/31-1,6761,441-235-0.7%470.1%2020/9/30-2,6321,503-1,129-3.2%1,2743.7%2020/10/31-1,124-1,089-2,213-15.6%-837-5.9%2020/11/30804-6261780.8%7343.4%来源：人民银行，政府债：11 月国债继续放量支撑社融高增。11 月政府债净融资4000 亿，较去年同期增加 2284 亿，是支撑社融高增主因。展望 12 月：国债预计新增规模在 3500 亿

13、（去年同期净增规模 3700 亿），地方政府专项债基本在 10 月底发行完毕。全年政府债净增额度 8.5 万亿（中央财政赤字2.78 万亿+特别国债1 万亿+地方财政赤字9800 亿+地方债3.75 万亿），1-11 月国债净增 3.43 万亿，则 12 月预计净增 3500 亿左右。债券和股权融资分析。1、11 月新增企业债规模大幅缩降，永煤信用债违约对企业债发行有一定的冲击：11 月新增企业债融资 862 亿，较去年同期下降 2468 亿元左右。2、股票融资规模保持在高位：随着经济结构转型，社会融资结构由间接融资转向直接融资大的拐点在缓慢的发生。 11 月股票融资新增量 771 亿，较去年

14、同期增加 247 亿。图表：新增社融结构占比新增信贷表外融资直接融资政府债ab s核销2019/1/3177.0%7.3%10.9%3.6%-1.0%0.5%2019/2/2878.0%-37.8%10.3%45.0%-0.1%2.1%2019/3/3166.2%2.8%12.4%11.5%0.9%4.1%2019/4/3050.3%-8.5%25.2%26.5%1.5%1.9%2019/5/3170.3%-8.5%7.5%22.5%2.2%2.3%2019/6/3063.8%-8.1%6.1%26.2%2.3%6.9%2019/7/3161.1%-48.4%27.5%49.9%2.2%1.9

15、%2019/8/3158.3%-4.6%16.6%23.0%1.2%1.6%2019/9/3068.3%-4.5%10.8%15.0%1.1%6.7%2019/10/3162.9%-27.0%25.5%21.6%7.2%4.8%2019/11/3067.1%-5.3%19.3%8.6%3.5%3.2%2019/12/3150.2%-6.9%14.5%17.8%4.1%14.3%2020/1/3170.2%3.6%9.0%15.1%0.9%0.3%2020/2/2985.3%-55.6%49.7%20.9%-6.3%3.0%2020/3/3160.8%4.3%19.5%12.2%-0.3%2.2

16、%2020/4/3055.2%0.1%30.8%10.8%-0.7%1.5%2020/5/3150.1%0.7%10.1%35.7%-0.3%1.3%2020/6/3055.5%2.5%12.1%21.5%0.0%5.9%2020/7/3157.3%-15.7%21.1%32.3%-4.4%4.4%2020/8/3140.7%2.0%13.8%38.4%0.9%1.8%2020/9/3054.3%0.1%7.3%29.1%1.3%5.1%2020/10/3145.7%-15.1%24.3%34.7%1.4%3.8%2020/11/3069.7%-9.6%7.7%18.8%资料来源：人民银行，二

17、、信贷情况：规模略超预期11 月新增信贷投放规模略超预期。11 月新增贷款 1.43 万亿元，预期 1.36万亿元，较去年同期略增 400 亿元。信贷余额同比增长 12.8 个点，在高位环比微降 0.1 个百分点。- 7 -请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分图表：贷款余额同比增速（亿，%）40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000资料来源：人民银行，中泰证券研究所细项来看：企业中长期依旧是信贷支撑主力，全年基建发力、配套贷款持续加速投放；经济修复持续。2017-012017-022017-032017-042017-052017-062017

18、-07新增人民币贷款2017-082017-092017-102017-112017-122018-012018-022018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-112018-12贷款余额同比增速（右轴）2019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-112019-122020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-06行业点评报告2020-072020-082020-092020-1

19、014.0013.5013.0012.5012.0011.5011.002020-11图表：新增贷款同比增加（亿元）人民币贷款中长期短期票据融资居民企业居民短期居民中长期企业短期企业中长期非银机构2019/1/313,3001,7591,9934,8138828,000-1761,0592,169700-5,2482019/2/28465-2,452-2,3912,470-3,457894-2,463-99472-1,4583,0162019/3/315,7002,7934,5341,0973,1755,0062,2628352,2721,958-2,5062019/4/30-1,600-1,

20、223-2,8021,851-26-2,255-648622-2,154-1,8457322019/5/31300-7531,522-315482-31-2727541,794-1,507-842019/6/30-1,800-242,113-1,986544-7142972241,816-248-1,8092019/7/31-3,900-1,356-2,233-1,104-1,232-3,527-1,073-159-1,160-1,1977462019/8/31-700985793-1,673-474386-6001251,393860-5062019/9/303,1002,4711,0254

21、763,341-4276341,4521,837-562019/10/31-357644-1,328-850-1,426-241-1,284-143-447871,3912019/11/301,4001,2091,756-1,7172711,030-272981,783911-32019/12/316003,747936-3,1331,955-4891111,7458252,002-1,0072020/1/311,1003,122-2,299-1,564-3,5572,800-4,0795221,7802,6001,8192020/2/29199-2,8253,497-1,061-3,4272

22、,959-1,572-1,8555,069-9705652020/3/3111,6003,2036,5011,0979579,8418501335,6513,0707662020/4/306,8002,9482,5422,0361,4116,0921,1872241,3552,724-1,0132020/5/313,0002,7664354544183,235433-1522,781-7182020/6/301,5005,086376-3,0652,1981737331,491-3573,595-6292020/7/31-6733,940589-2,3052,466-3298151,650-2

23、262,290-2,5982020/8/317003,9981,248-4,1021,877-7168461,0314022,967-5292020/9/302,1006,462-589-4,4222419-1,2765,0434582020/10/312852,369-10-1,3381211,073-3514723411,897-7412020/11/304002,041-5651807031,018344360-9091,681-1,316资料来源：人民银行，具体信贷结构情况：企业中长期仍是主力；居民按揭信贷需求维持；消费贷有一定的恢复。1、基础设施建设持续发力

24、，企业中长期信贷保持高增。企业短贷、票据有一定的弱增，预计银行部分项目留存至明年初。企业短期贷款、票据融资、中长期贷款分别新增 734 亿、804 亿、5887亿，增量较去年同期变动-909 亿、+180 亿、+1681 亿元。2、11 月居民购房需求维持；消费类信贷也有一定的恢复增长，预计双十一有一定的拉动作用。居民短贷、按揭贷款净新增分别为 2486 亿、5049 亿元，较去年同期增长 344 亿元、360 亿元。3、非银信贷 11 月新增-1042 亿，较去年同期增加-1316 亿元。图表：新增贷款结构占比中长期短期票据融资居民企业居民短期居民中长期企业短期企业中长期非银机构2019/1

25、/3164.9%27.4%16.0%30.6%79.9%9.1%21.6%18.3%43.3%-10.5%2019/2/2883.0%-16.4%19.1%-8.0%94.2%-33.1%25.1%16.7%57.9%13.8%2019/3/3166.1%43.8%5.8%52.7%63.1%25.4%27.2%18.3%38.9%-16.1%2019/4/3068.5%-3.2%18.4%51.5%34.0%10.7%40.8%-13.9%27.7%13.9%2019/5/3161.0%26.8%9.6%56.1%44.3%16.5%39.6%10.2%21.4%0.5%2019/6/305

26、1.9%42.6%5.8%45.9%54.8%16.1%29.3%26.6%22.6%-1.0%2019/7/3176.4%-14.2%12.1%48.2%28.1%6.6%41.7%-20.7%34.7%22.0%2019/8/3172.9%13.6%20.0%54.0%53.8%16.5%37.5%-2.9%35.4%-7.8%2019/9/3062.6%31.1%10.6%44.7%59.8%16.0%29.2%15.1%33.4%-3.9%2019/10/3187.8%-8.4%3.2%63.7%19.1%9.4%54.2%-17.8%33.5%17.0%2019/11/3064.0%

27、27.2%4.5%49.1%48.9%15.4%33.7%11.8%30.3%2.0%2019/12/3177.2%14.6%2.3%56.7%37.2%14.3%42.3%0.3%34.9%4.5%2020/1/3172.1%19.6%10.8%19.0%85.6%-3.4%22.4%23.1%49.7%-4.7%2020/2/2950.0%22.6%7.0%-45.6%124.8%-49.7%4.1%72.3%45.9%19.7%2020/3/3150.5%48.8%7.3%34.6%71.9%18.0%16.6%30.7%33.8%-6.8%2020/4/3058.4%13.0%23.0

28、%39.2%56.3%13.4%25.8%-0.4%32.6%2.4%2020/5/3167.3%24.3%10.7%47.6%57.2%16.1%31.5%8.2%35.8%-4.5%2020/6/3075.7%41.2%-11.6%54.2%51.3%18.8%35.1%22.4%40.6%-4.4%2020/7/31121.2%-9.2%-10.3%76.3%26.6%15.2%61.1%-24.4%60.1%-2.7%2020/8/31100.2%22.6%-13.1%65.7%45.3%22.2%43.5%0.4%56.7%-11.5%2020/9/3089.7%24.6%-13.9

29、%50.6%49.8%17.9%33.5%6.7%56.2%-1.1%2020/10/31118.5%-8.2%-16.3%62.8%33.9%3.9%58.8%-12.1%59.6%5.5%2020/11/3076.5%22.5%5.6%52.7%54.6%17.4%35.3%5.1%41.2%-7.3%资料来源：人民银行，图表：剔除非银和票据的新增贷款比去年同期增加（亿元）剔除非银剔除非银和票据剔除非银比去年同期剔除非银和票据比去年同期2019/1/3135,68630,5268,5483,7352019/2/287,6375,942-2,551-5,0212019/3/3119,6141

30、8,6368,2067,1092019/4/308,7836,909-2,332-4,1832019/5/3111,74210,6103846992019/6/3016,76115,80091,9952019/7/318,2726,988-4,646-3,5422019/8/3113,04510,619-1941,4792019/9/3017,55915,7693,1563,1092019/10/315,4905,276-1,748-8982019/11/3013,62613,0021,4033,1202019/12/3110,88910,6271,6074,7402020/1/3134,96

31、731,371-7198452020/2/297,2716,637-3666952020/3/3130,44828,37310,8349,7372020/4/3016,59612,6867,8135,7772020/5/3115,46013,8743,7183,2642020/6/3018,89020,9942,1295,1942020/7/3110,19711,2181,9254,2302020/8/3114,27415,9501,2295,3312020/9/3019,20121,8331,6426,0642020/10/316,5167,6401,0262,3642020/11/3015

32、,34214,5381,7161,536注：非银贷款包含非银同业拆借，不稳定性较大，因而剔除非银来看票据对新增信贷的贡献来源：人民银行，三、M2-M1 持续收敛，经济内生修复维持M2 同比增速环比回升：今年政府债的发力与财政存款的沉淀使社融与 M2 背离成为常态，10 月为缴税大月，另外由于政府债高增，但支出进度未同步匹配、沉淀为财政存款，使得包含政府债口径的社融高增，而不包含财政存款的M2 同比增速有所回落；11 月随着财政资金投放使用，拉动 M2 开始回升。M1 同比增速也维持大幅回升，M2-M1 增速差持续收敛：反映企业投资生产持续回暖，用于生产扩张的活期资金增加。11月 M0、M1、M

33、2 分别同比增长 10.3%、10%、10.7%、较上月同比增速变动-0.1、+0.9、+0.2 个百分点。图表：M2 及 M1 同比增速图表：M2 与 M1 增速差25.0010.0020.0015.0010.005.005.002017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-100.00-5.002017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-01

34、2019-042019-072019-102020-010.00-10.002020-042020-072020-10M2M1-15.00M2增速-M1增速来源：人民银行，来源：人民银行，存款规模高增，或与银行预期明年信用扩张放缓，提前存款开门红储备 所致。11 月新增存款 2.1 万亿，较去年同期增加 7900 亿；存量同比10.7%，较上月同比增速上升 0.4 个点。1、11 月居民净增存款恢复正增，新增 居民存款 6334 亿元，同比增加 3868 亿元。2、企业新增存款 8483 亿 元，同比下降 173 亿元。3、财政资金投放，存款净增-1857 亿，较去 年同期增加 594 亿元。

35、4、非银存款净增 8516 亿元，较去年同期增加 1537 亿。图表：存款余额同比增速（亿，%）50,00012.0040,00011.0030,00020,00010,0000(10,000)10.009.002018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-112018-122019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-112019-122020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-

36、062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-118.007.002017-012017-022017-032017-042017-052017-062017-072017-082017-092017-102017-112017-122018-012018-02(20,000)6.00新增人民币存款存款余额同比增速（右轴）资料来源：人民银行，图表：新增存款较去年同期增加（亿元）人民币存款居民企业财政存款非银2019/1/31-5,90029,924-4,132-4,472-20,9792019/2/2816,111-15,40012,0008,5293,6322019/

37、3/312,1003,4767,560-2,126-7,2242019/4/30-2,7466,952-7,194-1,837-8332019/5/31-8002511,042987-1,7352019/6/301,7003976,1541,868-6,2612019/7/31-3,8801,900-7,712-1,2544,7912019/8/317,100-749-347-7559,5092019/9/30-1,7092,1491,804-3,5531,3282019/10/31-1,163-2,665-989-2683,5692019/11/303,593-4,9401,3214,192

38、3,8542019/12/315,0793,7051,793-4142,2492020/1/31-3,9003,800-12,189-1,33510,7802020/2/29-2,900-14,50014,840-3,034-1,8332020/3/3124,40014,70012,621-425-2,9892020/4/3010,094-1,74813,438-4,8185,7862020/5/3110,9002,4026,8738,251-7,1452020/6/306,30010,446-1,183-17/31-5,617-6,163-1,600-3,2194,

39、6002020/8/311,4001,2591,6995,244-9,9102020/9/308,6074,0045,201-1,2914,9932020/10/31-6,343-3,557-1,6493,499-5,9472020/11/307,9003,868-1735941,537资料来源：人民银行，四、银行投资建议继续看好板块估值修复行情。1、我们 8 月初转看多银行，继续看好伴随经济修复带来的银行股估值修复行情。本轮银行股核心逻辑是宏观经济，宏观经济修复程度决定了银行股的上涨空间。目前经济处于上升期，银行基本面稳健、估值和公募基金仓位在历史低位，我们判断银行估值修复行情会持续，是跨年

40、度行情。2、个股建议：重点推荐、中长期看好的是优质的银行：招商银行、平安银行、和宁波银行。其次看好业绩有弹性的标的：兴业银行、杭州银行、南京银行和江苏银行。风险提示：经济下滑超预期。疫情影响超预期。PBROAE股息率20192020E2021E20192020E2021E20192020E工商银行0.740.680.6213.2%12.0%11.4%5.15%5.11%建设银行0.800.750.6813.4%12.2%11.8%4.76%4.73%农业银行0.650.610.5712.7%10.9%10.5%5.63%5.19%中国银行0.580.540.5011.8%10.1%9.7%5.91%5.46%交通银行0.490.470.4311.6%9.8%9.5%6.82%6.17%邮储银行0.850.780.7113.2%12.0%12.1%4.31%4.45%招商银行1.931.751.5617.1%15.3%15.4%2.71%2.50%中信银行0.560.540.5011.4%9.7%9.7%4.69%4.41%浦发银行0.590.560.5112