景气投资方法论与历史复盘

1、摘要内容在本篇文章中，我们梳理了近几年对景气投资的一些研究成果与研究心得，同时也结合市场在不同阶段的表 现以及投资者的交流反馈，在历史复盘分析、理论逻辑推演、案例分析与应用等方面都进行完善。报告内容主要包含以下几个方面：一 景气投资的全球规律：景气度高低决定相对收益高低（对全球股市具有普适性）。 二 市场偏好什么样的增长曲线：五种增长类型的比较（增速、趋势、形态）。三 什么时候该重视估值与景气度的平衡：三种情形（宏观周期变化、个股景气变化、长周期投资）。 四 关于估值空间的判断：兼论PEG估值的误区与应用（哪些适用，哪些不适用）。五 科技赛道行情的决定因素：产业周期决定趋势，宏观因素影响短期。

2、六 复盘与应用（1）：寻找景气向上但涨幅偏离的板块（偏离度）。 七 复盘与应用（2）：科技赛道行情的起承转合（6个案例）。风险提示：经济修复进度不及预期，流动性收紧超预期，海外不确定性风险、模型有效性风险等。前言：上半年景气投资失效了？涨幅分组ROE（%）ROE变化率扣非增速（%）营收增速（%）年初PE期末PE (4/30日)年初PB分位期末PB分位(4/30日)年初市值（亿）第1组(涨幅最高)8.10.97%15.612.920.421.417.6%22.0%55.0第2组7.4-0.42%8.27.223.423.118.9%16.6%62.3第3组6.5-1.88%4.69.830.63

3、0.420.6%26.2%60.9第4组6.8-1.51%6.610.330.528.822.7%21.3%55.3第5组5.5-3.47%-5.57.436.432.020.6%25.6%55.5第6组6.0-4.07%-13.19.440.234.130.2%25.3%55.6第7组6.3-4.06%-9.19.439.533.934.4%28.8%64.1第8组7.5-4.99%-13.79.240.831.937.9%28.5%70.0第9组7.0-5.75%-13.510.348.234.543.6%34.9%83.8第10组(涨幅最低)6.6-8.22%-33.65.356.037

4、.745.9%37.8%89.8年初至今，市场经历了较大的波动，以景气度为核心的选股思路似乎也遇到了挑战。我们从数据上做一些客观分析。首先，我们将【2022年1-4月涨幅】分组为10组，再观察各组【2022Q1财务指标】的中位数，可以发现：年初至今，涨得好的标 的具有高景气（Q1扣非增速高）、低估值（年初PE/PB分位数低）、小市值（年初市值相对较低）等特征。可见在今年1-4月市场下跌过程中，景气度高低是涨跌幅高低的核心决定因素，这一条规律在大数概率上并没有失效。图表：2022年【1-4月涨幅】分组 与 各组【2022Q1财务指标】中位数前言：上半年景气投资失效了？另外，从细分行业来看：202

5、2年1-4月，行业涨跌幅也与2022Q1增速呈现明显的正相关性。但也有部分行业出现偏离（景气度代 表高胜率的方向但概率上并非100%），而在年初的下跌过程中，市场对【景气投资】有效性产生质疑，更多的是因为这些偏离的 行业正是近两年最热门的赛道板块新能源车、光伏、储能、稀有金属等。银行房地产新能源车-负极消费电子火电汽车零部件环保建材LED面板工业金属建筑施工信创券商水泥纺织与家纺旅酒与餐饮公路造纸港口煤炭多元金融保险 农产品加工航空机场医药流通钢铁稀有金属疫苗与生物制品原料药中药超市与便利店建筑设计石油化工化学纤维水电高铁与城轨 燃气化肥肉制品石油开采黄金农药航运维生素包装医印美刷体外诊断智能

6、汽车风电-零部件建筑装修医疗信息输化变电新设能备源车半-零导部体件-材料光伏品-硅牌化片服学饰制药速冻食品 物流 核电白酒钢结构啤酒新能工源业车互-电联池光网伏-辅材游戏新能源车-电机新能源车半导体-设计风电-整机信息安全医疗器械安防 小家电塑料及制品 家居文家娱具用品新能源车-正极橡应胶用及软制件品储能设备化学5原G网料络及制品 油服楼宇设非备乳饮料半导体-设备生产线设备光伏-组件云计算 休闲食品乳制品个护用品白电半导体-封电测子化学品动物保健检军测工电子和原材料 调味品影视与重互卡联网媒体园林工广程告营销 工程机械金融药I房T新能源车-隔膜CXO种植业新能源车-设备军生工命整科机学和上配整

7、游套车5厂血G硬制件品PC逆B变器电商 专机用械新设基能备础源件运营商半导体-功率 光伏-设备新能源车-铜箔百货与专营出版免税铁路-100%-50%0%50%100%150%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%2022Q1净利润增速（整体法）2022年初至今涨跌幅 (中位数)10%20%一年维度的涨幅大小与当年扣非增速高低，呈现单调正相关关系数据截至2022.4.30半导体-制造【增速高+涨幅小】前言：上半年景气投资失效了？涨幅分组ROE（%）ROE变化率扣非增速（%）营收增速（%）年初PE期末PE (6/30日)年初PB分位期末PB分位(6/30日)年初市值（亿）第1组(涨幅最高)7

8、.8-1.76%7.617.251.038.555.5%45.3%81.3第2组7.3-1.03%6.613.849.139.945.2%34.9%75.1第3组6.1-1.86%-0.511.446.337.135.8%29.5%68.4第4组6.8-2.09%-2.710.542.534.333.7%28.4%66.8第5组6.2-3.30%-11.59.136.030.524.9%25.0%52.3第6组6.3-3.30%-9.86.637.632.417.8%21.2%53.9第7组5.9-4.81%-8.88.834.630.918.0%25.6%53.3第8组6.5-4.93%-1

9、4.92.826.925.020.4%19.3%60.5第9组7.5-4.30%-0.75.821.220.217.2%22.1%82.3第10组(涨幅最低)7.7-1.38%5.37.118.919.223.4%15.2%67.2最后，我们将一季报披露之后【2022年5-6月涨幅】分组为10组，再观察各组【2022Q1财务指标】中位数，也可发现：【5-6月】 涨得好的标的也具有高景气（高扣非增速或营收增速）的特征说明：财报披露之后，财务指标（高增速）依然具有一定有效性； 至于估值特征、市值特征的表现则与【1-4月】相反。景气投资总结有3点理解：景气投资高增长+趋势向上、景气投资买成长、“增速

10、”并非万能，但代表高胜率方向。图表：2022年【5-6月涨幅】分组 与 各组【2022Q1财务指标】中位数前言：长期看盈利能力，中期做景气轮动美:工业美:科技美:必选美:卫生保健美:可选美:电信 美:公用事业法:基本材料法:能源法:电信德:公用事业德:科技德:必选德:卫生保健美:基本材料德:可选日:基本材料日:能源德:电信日:公用事业德:金融 日:工业日:科技日:金融日:必选日:卫生保健日:可选日:电信美:金融法:必选英:基本材料美:能源法:工业法:科技法:卫生保健 法:可选英:能源英:公用事业英:工业英:科技法:金融英:金融德:工业英:必选英:可选德:基本材料英:电信y = 0.3339x

11、+ 0.0187R = 0.310.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%3.0%5.0%7.0%9.0%11.0%13.0%15.0%17.0%19.0%21.0%23.0%各国各行业年化收益率（1973-2022年）各国各行业ROE平均值（1973-2022年）前言：长期看盈利能力，中期做景气轮动基本资源能源公用事业化学品航空和国防电子和电气设备工业工程工业运输软件和计算机服务技术硬件和设备半导体电子元件生产技术设备保险房地产食品生产商医疗设备和服务计算机硬件饮料制药和生物技术建筑和材料汽车及零部件银行卫生保健提供者 消费者服务家庭用品休闲产品个人护理和非耐

12、用品个人物品工业服务传媒零售商电信y = 0.3473x + 0.0461R = 0.28894.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%24.0%26.0%美股各行业年化收益率（1973-2022年）美股各行业ROE平均值（1973-2022年）前言：A股适合做景气轮动行业食品 饮料电力 设备医药 生物社会 服务美容 护理国防 军工机械 设备汽车建筑 材料计算 机农林 牧渔电子有色 金属非银 金融银行家用 电器房地 产轻工 制造建筑 装饰商贸 零售基础 化工传媒通信公用 事

13、业环保纺织 服饰煤炭钢铁交通 运输石油 石化20054515321221727181930822112726962516112020292824131020063162414157711125183061217419138292220282826271023920072651028344138192224214301221172097292715151111618252008111226132929271214320302417191821410169577152328252220091526216977181023531920141311301617282729291222225242010

14、892134101022113716282625271715161219212424142029233020112301676232325212718282919117315202411414559121322102012172981032626111225231672615118428132430992721221914201323961211881524171342922251926102714317161618302820212014281829153088139102725141620419217212611771622352320152291041820201221138724302

15、811152251416562323329271926201612315271326261232211148207925184161930212424172102862017122111718282813102325654716122620271429152121308391920183249151616231525429288219102611203027171313222112147201921289111010224157113616141720302528181927272624292123202032615447131214810202693015282425172922222718

16、212319202126125272014149151224112292242813102372117661635188累计12345667891011121314151617181920212223232425262728景气投资的全球规律景气度决定相对收益19请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明结论：景气度高低决定相对收益高低景气度高低决定相对收益高低对全球股市具有普适性。首先，对于A股市场，我们回溯了诸多财务指标（如增速、盈利、估值、现金流、股息率等），从单因子有效性来看，在过去30 年，最有效的仍然是业绩的一阶指标，比如净利润增速、营收增速、ROE变化率等。也就是说从单因子角度，不管

17、市场是牛市、 熊市、还是震荡市，不管风格是蓝筹还是成长，相对景气度的高低决定相对收益的高低。其次，我们将这一规律的探讨延伸至海外发达市场，具体做法：将发达国家或地区，全市场标的的年度涨幅分组（10组，第1组到第10组，涨幅由高到低），取每组年底的EPS_TTM增速（中位数）；其中，EPS增速为滚动12个月数据，与年度涨幅口径对应。 可以看到，在绝大多数海外市场、绝大多数年份，相对收益由相对景气度决定。全市场看，1年维度涨跌幅的高低取决于业绩增速的高低。不管是A股过去30年，还是美股过去50年，全市场年度的涨幅高低与当 年净利润增速的高低呈现线性正相关的关系。这一规律，除了A股、美股之外，我们进

18、一步回溯了日本、德国、英国、法国、中 国香港、中国台湾等权益市场，得到的结论也大体上一致。A股：景气度高低决定相对收益高低年份1992199319941995199619971998199920002001第1组(增速最高)-106.01.4-8.791.151.437.335.086.1-18.1第2组-101.4-29.2-16.6135.464.213.718.772.7-21.7第3组-20.2-30.1-9.697.840.710.729.171.5-16.9第4组-24.0-27.0-14.551.446.810.920.360.5-23.5第5组-10.2-23.8-10.373

19、.117.30.917.764.1-21.4第6组-6.9-18.6-20.275.128.1-2.78.154.1-24.6第7组-42.1-40.9-19.986.811.3-9.06.744.6-25.2第8组-20.1-40.3-22.154.1-0.9-15.13.452.0-28.6第9组-4.7-41.5-24.534.5-2.4-6.3-0.644.8-28.2第10组(增速最低)-25.6-43.3-26.178.5-4.86.5-1.256.2-29.9年份2002200320042005200620072008200920102011第1组(增速最高)-15.2-5.9-

20、10.1-4.3112.1250.1-57.5158.317.4-25.5第2组-21.7-17.2-12.5-6.674.4222.6-58.8155.810.6-26.6第3组-17.1-1.8-9.6-5.076.7186.2-55.5138.16.8-25.2第4组-21.2-12.2-11.3-8.8101.7179.5-57.2149.817.8-33.3第5组-21.6-13.7-13.1-11.195.1159.8-60.0113.19.3-33.3第6组-23.3-15.2-16.5-14.371.6142.8-62.2103.86.6-36.0第7组-25.6-19.3-2

21、1.4-23.260.0155.5-64.2116.87.6-37.9第8组-27.4-24.1-23.8-26.954.7134.4-67.7131.6-2.9-41.9第9组-26.6-24.0-27.1-31.744.6145.1-66.7110.1-9.5-37.2第10组(增速最低)-28.9-31.1-29.7-34.054.0175.0-63.3118.8-7.1-39.6年份2012201320142015201620172018201920202021第1组(增速最高)8.828.446.783.2-8.5-8.8-28.732.921.142.8第2组9.123.144.3

22、85.9-9.9-17.5-30.323.617.525.6第3组6.133.041.977.1-10.6-12.9-25.829.116.319.1第4组3.026.640.063.2-13.0-14.5-28.026.715.014.1第5组-1.021.934.962.1-14.4-16.3-30.620.35.69.4第6组-5.622.336.647.2-14.6-18.3-34.115.51.67.4第7组-4.916.334.649.9-15.0-21.0-34.99.0-5.56.2第8组-10.72.930.649.7-19.9-27.5-40.87.8-7.5-2.7第9组

23、-14.72.829.141.8-18.9-30.6-40.45.0-11.4-1.5第10组(增速最低)-12.41.437.039.4-17.7-30.6-44.43.7-11.9-1.1图：A股市场：【年度增速】分组 与 每组【当年涨幅中位数】（表中数据为各组年度涨幅的中位数，%）美国市场：景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组（10组）与每组EPS_TTM增速（图中数值为每组增速的中位数）美国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)71.4%109.4%76.5%59.2%50.0%38.1%39.6%42.9%64.3%37.5%第2组21.6%37.

24、8%33.9%25.2%33.8%25.8%26.3%25.0%25.8%23.8%第3组13.9%24.0%34.3%18.5%20.0%18.4%26.4%22.2%17.2%19.1%第4组5.9%21.7%20.5%17.5%19.8%14.4%20.0%15.7%13.0%15.6%第5组5.9%16.7%13.7%12.3%13.5%10.0%15.1%11.1%10.6%10.3%第6组2.5%10.1%13.8%8.4%12.2%8.0%16.0%10.8%11.4%7.3%第7组-8.4%5.3%11.4%7.3%7.3%6.3%11.1%11.8%7.4%9.8%第8组-1

25、0.5%4.6%5.2%3.0%5.3%-6.8%12.8%2.4%7.5%7.4%第9组-15.8%-21.6%-1.1%-3.3%1.1%-11.8%-2.7%-4.8%2.6%-15.2%第10组(涨幅最低)-28.9%-25.0%-10.8%-12.7%-38.8%-27.0%-24.4%-22.0%-12.3%-46.7%美国2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)28.9%46.3%142.9%93.7%59.0%81.5%46.7%16.4%22.6%59.4%第2组10.9%22.5%51.0%40.1%35.0%37.7%28.2%6.8%1.2%37.6%第3

26、组8.0%15.2%46.3%29.7%30.0%20.1%16.9%6.2%-11.0%21.2%第4组7.0%12.8%22.6%20.9%21.1%15.7%10.2%7.7%-12.1%24.2%第5组2.1%5.1%20.2%12.7%14.9%12.5%9.0%9.0%-7.4%17.8%第6组-2.1%1.4%14.8%9.4%10.0%12.8%5.1%-3.7%-9.8%15.5%第7组-2.6%0.8%9.9%5.7%5.2%7.6%1.9%9.0%-4.7%11.4%第8组-9.2%-5.9%5.4%5.1%5.0%3.4%-4.1%-12.2%-17.6%5.0%第9组

27、-16.7%-10.2%3.8%-4.2%-9.2%2.2%-6.8%-17.9%-22.2%5.4%第10组(涨幅最低)-32.3%-31.9%-8.0%-12.4%-20.2%-14.3%-31.2%-22.0%-43.0%-10.0%美国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)42.9%60.0%37.3%33.2%40.8%29.9%73.4%46.5%21.0%48.8%第2组33.0%26.8%23.9%13.5%18.9%11.9%24.4%27.5%13.8%30.7%第3组20.4%21.3%13.5%12.1%13.9%9.9%20.9%28.6%12.0%1

28、0.9%第4组16.3%14.3%11.0%11.4%7.6%6.4%13.7%28.0%7.8%5.1%第5组17.8%9.9%10.9%7.5%6.4%6.1%11.2%20.3%10.6%-4.8%第6组17.8%8.8%7.1%9.3%2.3%7.7%5.4%21.1%2.3%-1.3%第7组9.1%5.1%0.8%4.4%1.3%6.0%5.4%18.1%2.4%-8.2%第8组9.0%-1.1%0.8%-3.0%-10.9%-0.6%1.1%18.5%-8.7%-11.5%第9组4.1%-12.0%-6.9%-6.7%-8.5%-12.3%-20.0%11.1%-18.7%-22.

29、2%第10组(涨幅最低)-18.0%-25.8%-21.3%-21.2%-35.1%-34.1%-16.7%-19.6%-44.5%-51.6%英国市场：景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组（10组）与每组EPS_TTM增速（图中数值为每组增速的中位数）英国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)15.9%21.8%48.9%43.9%31.4%29.1%33.7%28.5%27.7%24.4%第2组-2.4%15.3%35.1%26.8%22.9%22.5%22.4%19.1%23.0%15.3%第3组-7.1%9.9%19.7%20.3%17.2%22.5

30、%17.0%16.0%9.0%11.8%第4组-10.4%5.1%12.6%19.0%13.9%13.7%17.6%16.2%6.6%6.2%第5组-17.3%-3.7%6.1%15.1%14.9%13.2%14.5%13.5%5.5%10.3%第6组-21.2%-2.7%3.6%14.4%11.0%5.1%14.4%10.9%4.2%9.7%第7组-31.4%-19.5%-0.7%12.5%8.0%8.4%7.9%10.6%3.8%9.1%第8组-28.8%-21.5%-3.8%6.3%2.8%-0.4%3.5%3.6%-2.8%0.7%第9组-37.1%-38.4%-11.2%13.0%-

31、9.0%-5.3%0.6%-7.3%-12.6%-34.7%第10组(涨幅最低)-49.0%-49.0%-22.9%-10.7%-29.1%-29.1%-8.7%-8.1%-15.2%-19.7%英国2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)22.5%40.0%39.3%39.6%51.6%50.3%38.7%22.9%7.3%69.0%第2组10.2%12.3%29.7%23.0%23.2%23.9%27.6%17.8%-2.1%31.3%第3组10.2%13.7%20.3%18.2%13.3%19.0%15.7%15.8%-2.5%11.7%第4组4.6%5.7%6.6%16.

32、9%19.8%18.1%17.6%10.2%-5.8%5.9%第5组1.7%8.2%6.4%17.2%11.8%10.2%17.4%8.9%-0.8%7.7%第6组-15.8%3.7%6.4%19.2%12.2%16.6%13.0%7.6%-3.1%1.3%第7组-13.2%-9.4%3.4%9.3%6.4%11.4%13.6%7.3%-11.9%1.4%第8组-5.7%-14.2%2.0%9.7%-1.0%3.5%12.8%-9.6%-10.1%-10.5%第9组-29.0%-21.5%-3.2%9.5%-9.4%-3.9%6.6%-16.1%-14.9%-7.5%第10组(涨幅最低)-46

33、.2%-33.9%-24.2%-33.3%-14.3%-26.8%-12.2%-12.8%-41.0%-19.5%英国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)42.3%18.6%30.0%39.5%40.7%36.4%35.5%27.0%27.7%41.1%第2组18.6%17.7%22.2%21.9%21.1%14.8%12.2%21.7%13.0%22.6%第3组14.3%9.4%10.4%10.9%11.0%10.7%20.1%8.7%8.5%12.5%第4组9.6%10.6%6.9%10.0%7.1%12.0%10.7%11.1%6.1%-2.2%第5组8.8%1.4%2

34、.0%10.3%5.6%7.1%7.9%1.7%8.3%1.6%第6组13.3%0.6%-2.4%3.0%1.0%8.2%9.2%7.6%-2.8%-20.9%第7组3.4%-7.8%-0.3%-1.3%-1.3%8.5%1.9%5.4%-1.7%-22.0%第8组17.8%-3.7%-19.3%-6.0%-12.2%9.1%-2.2%4.5%-6.5%-30.9%第9组-7.1%-22.2%-16.1%-7.9%-22.1%6.9%3.3%-5.0%-12.8%-31.0%第10组(涨幅最低)-12.8%-39.3%-36.7%-29.2%-31.9%-13.0%-11.1%14.3%-28

35、.9%-60.3%德国市场：景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组（10组）与每组EPS_TTM增速（图中数值为每组增速的中位数）德国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)20.8%19.8%14.3%24.5%28.7%24.4%32.1%12.3%34.4%23.2%第2组5.7%1.1%24.4%32.9%14.8%6.8%19.4%43.6%13.2%17.3%第3组-0.1%23.1%-4.2%25.4%42.6%22.0%18.9%34.2%19.4%43.5%第4组10.5%1.0%10.5%-13.3%22.1%17.9%14.8%28.0%1

36、5.0%8.8%第5组-4.8%-4.5%-2.3%13.1%17.6%12.9%5.8%21.4%22.0%4.6%第6组3.3%-1.6%10.3%5.9%4.9%23.4%22.8%16.2%4.1%13.8%第7组7.4%-1.4%-3.4%3.7%5.6%-9.4%10.6%27.5%5.1%3.8%第8组-1.7%-10.4%-48.5%1.7%8.1%-6.0%3.0%25.6%1.4%11.1%第9组6.6%-22.1%-33.7%5.0%10.4%-15.0%-4.3%9.7%9.6%17.8%第10组(涨幅最低)-19.0%-17.1%-76.4%12.2%-3.1%-51

37、.5%-11.4%4.2%7.7%7.7%德国2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)35.2%23.8%62.5%63.9%103.6%66.7%68.8%15.8%11.1%115.6%第2组20.7%15.9%50.0%46.7%45.5%50.0%36.4%34.1%-7.8%44.1%第3组14.2%3.5%26.9%23.1%27.7%30.8%43.1%25.0%-26.7%57.3%第4组9.6%20.0%7.7%21.0%19.9%30.9%15.9%2.8%-38.8%21.4%第5组4.1%-17.7%3.2%12.4%22.5%16.7%11.0%10.4

38、%-17.2%21.5%第6组1.2%-11.3%-5.0%12.6%10.2%7.0%24.3%2.7%-32.2%13.0%第7组-5.5%-17.0%-8.6%26.1%6.7%18.4%21.7%-12.4%-44.0%-21.1%第8组22.2%-24.4%-18.8%-10.6%10.6%6.3%12.2%-19.5%-40.3%-12.9%第9组150.0%10.3%-18.3%5.4%-7.7%50.0%9.2%-30.0%-3.6%-10.2%第10组(涨幅最低)-10.5%-32.4%-32.4%-30.7%-18.4%6.0%6.0%-60.6%-47.6%-27.9%德

39、国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)76.9%32.6%28.1%65.9%55.8%34.1%73.7%34.3%28.6%41.6%第2组27.2%10.8%10.5%25.1%27.5%28.1%50.0%10.5%20.0%22.8%第3组30.8%12.0%13.2%23.4%18.6%13.4%23.7%15.4%6.9%15.6%第4组27.1%-2.5%-11.1%5.4%16.8%15.5%14.3%8.8%2.4%-4.1%第5组13.8%-1.9%-2.2%5.4%-2.6%12.5%12.6%5.5%-1.2%-16.5%第6组5.6%0.9%-2.

40、5%6.8%-3.3%4.5%8.4%-4.6%-21.0%1.1%第7组-18.8%-2.0%-18.5%-1.7%0.6%-4.0%0.5%1.1%-6.9%-17.8%第8组3.9%-15.3%-31.2%-24.7%1.4%6.8%-2.0%-9.6%-14.5%-20.0%第9组-25.4%-40.4%-8.7%-31.8%-19.2%-7.5%5.5%-2.8%-21.5%-18.5%第10组(涨幅最低)-42.1%-35.7%-30.8%-7.5%-22.9%4.2%-9.9%-30.4%11.5%-32.9%法国市场：景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组（1

41、0组）与每组EPS_TTM增速（图中数值为每组增速的中位数）法国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)20.8%12.3%46.2%31.6%24.7%29.2%28.6%22.0%44.2%25.9%第2组7.8%8.7%13.8%18.1%15.4%22.9%19.5%22.1%28.5%24.8%第3组2.2%-0.9%23.7%11.1%16.7%20.9%16.1%19.0%24.0%11.9%第4组8.6%-14.4%9.0%14.1%5.7%7.7%15.8%14.6%18.3%10.1%第5组-7.6%-15.1%21.7%-0.2%3.2%5.2%13.1%8

42、.7%31.3%18.3%第6组-7.3%-6.8%9.0%3.7%2.0%10.0%10.7%15.1%13.0%15.7%第7组-5.9%-23.1%22.8%8.2%-15.9%3.7%8.4%9.9%15.5%1.7%第8组-10.7%-20.7%14.6%4.9%-5.9%-4.4%7.6%8.9%12.8%12.6%第9组-19.0%-17.4%-2.5%-6.7%-18.3%-11.2%12.8%5.9%11.4%4.4%第10组(涨幅最低)-12.3%-55.4%-14.5%-30.8%-24.8%3.7%2.1%-13.4%3.7%-16.8%法国2001-20052006-

43、2010第1组(涨幅最高)41.6%45.3%44.3%80.9%73.9%42.3%8.3%-8.2%41.4%32.9%第2组14.7%26.0%30.4%44.5%36.9%22.6%10.8%-19.3%12.5%25.9%第3组18.6%16.3%21.9%52.9%30.1%17.5%13.7%-21.8%22.5%20.4%第4组4.9%10.1%14.1%23.7%20.5%19.2%7.8%-13.1%-0.2%12.8%第5组6.3%4.0%15.7%22.5%18.1%22.0%10.0%-9.0%9.8%24.0%第6组5.6%-0.5%11.8%13.9%20.7%1

44、3.1%2.6%-15.7%4.8%14.7%第7组-7.6%-9.1%10.9%8.8%18.5%9.2%5.2%-21.7%15.5%2.1%第8组-22.2%1.4%12.0%2.3%10.3%5.1%-3.0%-13.6%3.3%8.8%第9组-31.3%-20.5%10.6%-29.4%-11.9%-4.9%-3.1%-13.3%19.7%-6.6%第10组(涨幅最低)-44.3%-53.2%-20.7%-23.5%-11.8%-24.1%-48.5%-48.5%-29.5%17.8%法国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)26.8%29.1%28.6%50.0%2

45、7.1%51.1%17.0%48.9%69.0%134.7%第2组9.8%11.2%21.0%20.3%38.7%16.4%14.4%10.9%3.0%51.4%第3组8.5%1.6%18.3%7.0%12.6%11.4%17.5%3.4%-4.8%47.1%第4组3.0%6.4%1.2%14.2%20.4%12.1%10.8%3.1%-12.7%44.8%第5组-10.7%2.6%-2.7%17.5%8.1%7.5%8.0%-1.2%-14.0%28.2%第6组-1.1%-7.7%14.3%-2.4%7.5%7.5%11.3%-3.6%-16.4%32.3%第7组-14.0%-15.3%-0

46、.9%-3.4%1.8%4.4%9.5%-14.8%-24.2%50.0%第8组-11.2%-19.2%-13.9%-13.4%-8.0%2.2%-4.6%-29.0%-30.0%8.9%第9组-28.3%-25.7%-27.3%-48.1%-16.2%-18.2%-10.1%-31.1%-38.0%20.4%第10组(涨幅最低)-42.5%1.0%-16.0%-22.1%47.4%34.3%-64.3%-76.7%-6.7%-83.6%日本市场：景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组（10组）与每组EPS_TTM增速（图中数值为每组增速的中位数）日本1991-1995199

47、6-2000第1组(涨幅最高)14.7%6.6%6.0%18.4%28.5%23.2%14.5%7.7%15.6%47.2%第2组11.4%-4.0%0.6%2.4%20.7%16.1%10.1%-9.0%0.5%30.7%第3组10.0%-8.0%-10.2%0.4%15.2%13.1%5.6%-6.2%-3.2%24.3%第4组7.1%-7.3%-11.1%-3.8%7.2%7.5%8.3%-8.7%-12.4%12.0%第5组2.3%-14.6%-21.7%-8.8%9.2%4.0%7.7%-15.7%-5.5%22.8%第6组-1.0%-16.4%-21.6%-11.9%3.9%3.3

48、%6.0%-15.1%-18.2%13.9%第7组-4.0%-17.7%-23.0%-15.3%2.8%-1.1%-5.0%-22.0%-14.1%13.2%第8组-6.0%-24.6%-33.6%-8.6%-0.8%-3.4%-5.0%-26.0%-20.7%9.9%第9组-8.4%-24.3%-38.9%-24.1%-4.7%1.6%-11.1%-25.6%-26.4%2.6%第10组(涨幅最低)-14.6%-30.3%-30.5%-33.2%-13.8%-5.6%-17.8%-30.2%-28.9%-8.5%日本2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)30.3%20.4%1

49、7.6%38.2%34.0%31.9%14.6%3.4%-5.0%68.5%第2组23.6%5.9%11.0%35.3%21.2%24.2%8.6%-6.6%-15.2%29.6%第3组20.4%-3.5%9.9%34.1%21.0%19.1%4.6%-10.0%-16.8%13.0%第4组6.9%-3.6%1.0%31.0%16.4%16.7%2.7%-8.3%-18.1%31.3%第5组-3.2%-13.7%-1.0%28.0%10.2%15.7%2.6%-10.2%-21.3%16.6%第6组8.1%-15.9%-2.1%28.8%13.0%17.8%1.4%-13.9%-25.3%8.

50、6%第7组-3.0%-20.8%2.1%25.6%9.4%12.2%-0.7%-12.9%-38.1%17.0%第8组6.6%-26.1%1.4%13.6%10.3%6.7%1.8%-16.7%-40.4%19.5%第9组-3.5%-37.0%-5.7%23.5%3.5%9.7%-14.7%-21.2%-46.0%12.1%第10组(涨幅最低)-15.1%-36.8%-13.5%15.9%-12.1%4.4%-11.1%-35.7%-39.4%14.7%日本2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)7.5%16.7%23.8%15.6%17.8%11.9%22.1%9.2%12.2

51、%-0.3%第2组0.0%8.1%21.8%15.0%12.7%7.3%17.6%4.1%7.1%-5.1%第3组4.6%1.2%22.0%13.7%11.9%5.7%13.5%5.1%2.9%-8.1%第4组1.5%4.2%19.2%10.3%10.6%9.6%15.9%1.6%1.9%-9.2%第5组10.4%8.4%17.9%6.7%13.2%0.3%13.7%2.3%2.1%-14.8%第6组5.3%8.5%21.6%8.9%13.1%7.0%15.8%-0.3%4.7%-11.1%第7组-2.7%2.2%18.9%8.7%7.6%0.9%17.6%2.6%-3.2%-14.7%第8组

52、3.4%0.5%26.0%4.5%8.0%2.6%14.9%0.2%-3.1%-7.6%第9组-2.5%-1.9%23.9%6.0%9.2%-0.2%15.6%-0.2%-13.9%-15.3%第10组(涨幅最低)0.3%-6.0%2.1%13.8%5.5%-8.5%11.3%0.2%-8.7%-8.7%中国台湾市场：景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：中国台湾市场：年度涨幅分组（10组）与每组EPS_TTM增速（图中数值为每组增速的中位数）TW1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)15.6%54.9%68.2%125.1%31.3%46.1%100.3%59.8%2.5%56.7%

53、第2组45.0%16.3%19.7%119.2%18.5%8.8%44.4%47.6%-7.3%27.5%第3组-28.6%9.4%-7.8%30.1%-2.3%29.5%53.5%13.1%-5.0%10.3%第4组-7.1%25.7%-7.1%17.7%3.8%10.7%43.1%3.6%-35.4%27.3%第5组-45.5%4.8%5.8%17.7%14.8%27.4%16.3%4.4%-14.5%36.9%第6组-29.2%-9.8%-19.4%40.0%-20.4%4.3%15.4%-12.1%-30.4%10.6%第7组-7.5%13.6%-9.7%7.7%11.0%-10.7%

54、22.6%5.3%-22.0%-7.5%第8组7.2%-8.6%-16.0%10.0%-24.6%-21.0%17.5%-17.2%-34.0%-3.1%第9组-29.2%-47.9%-56.3%-28.3%15.0%-20.6%8.1%-30.2%-29.2%-0.5%第10组(涨幅最低)4.2%-63.1%-2.7%-40.9%-26.2%-36.7%-8.4%-20.2%-27.9%-2.4%TW2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)33.0%93.7%100.5%149.4%16.9%76.3%70.8%23.6%69.9%164.4%第2组3.6%65.4%60.3%

55、59.8%-0.7%68.3%38.6%2.6%9.4%77.8%第3组-30.1%37.6%44.4%34.7%4.5%58.0%24.3%-2.5%6.4%84.1%第4组-9.1%6.6%44.2%47.9%-3.2%36.7%16.4%-7.6%-10.3%51.4%第5组-20.4%8.0%18.4%39.1%-10.5%14.5%11.1%-21.2%-13.2%59.2%第6组-28.2%0.7%11.1%31.8%-9.8%27.3%9.1%-20.2%-27.9%34.9%第7组-32.6%4.9%-0.5%14.8%-26.1%2.4%-8.4%-37.8%-28.7%42

56、.2%第8组-45.2%-2.9%-17.6%4.7%-38.0%-3.1%-9.2%-44.1%-23.7%34.3%第9组-50.5%-27.7%-30.7%-9.6%-36.5%-14.7%-18.4%-46.0%-19.4%14.1%第10组(涨幅最低)-50.5%-47.7%-33.5%-48.8%-61.0%-21.8%-33.4%-44.0%-30.9%-5.8%TW2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)41.9%62.8%43.3%72.5%48.4%58.2%52.0%61.5%40.1%80.0%第2组18.1%18.5%32.8%40.9%24.3%20.

57、7%39.9%30.4%18.6%47.8%第3组1.4%9.2%20.4%34.8%19.2%10.6%29.8%19.4%15.2%21.4%第4组-8.3%6.0%22.0%23.4%2.6%-2.1%17.1%7.0%4.7%15.5%第5组-15.7%-4.3%13.8%19.9%0.8%-4.1%5.8%2.8%-0.6%11.3%第6组-20.5%-13.1%-1.3%8.1%1.5%-11.5%-3.3%-5.1%-6.6%1.9%第7组-28.0%-26.4%-8.1%1.7%-10.4%-15.0%-6.2%-6.9%-13.8%-6.8%第8组-40.5%-42.2%-8

58、.1%-6.7%-18.8%-25.5%-17.3%-10.5%-29.4%-23.7%第9组-47.8%-50.7%-27.8%-23.0%-27.6%-31.3%-18.0%-13.3%-45.9%-42.2%第10组(涨幅最低)-51.2%-46.1%-44.5%-34.9%-49.7%-34.3%-38.3%-29.5%-34.5%-41.1%中国香港市场：景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：中国香港市场：年度涨幅分组（10组）与每组EPS_TTM增速（图中数值为每组增速的中位数）HK1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)6.3%25.6%33.3%55.6%30.8%33.

59、3%74.6%-8.7%-5.0%53.6%第2组17.6%42.9%28.1%24.2%25.0%16.1%45.0%-11.5%20.0%58.0%第3组12.3%35.7%23.3%23.6%6.3%20.2%36.5%-26.1%-9.0%30.9%第4组-10.7%23.7%13.9%19.6%6.1%16.5%34.5%-20.0%-4.9%2.0%第5组-9.4%16.1%18.0%13.9%-20.8%13.7%20.0%-37.5%4.2%14.1%第6组-18.3%20.4%6.3%12.5%-20.0%3.4%23.5%-53.8%-28.3%3.6%第7组1.1%12.

60、5%2.3%-10.7%-5.4%-13.3%9.1%-38.1%8.0%3.6%第8组-38.8%18.0%11.1%1.1%-48.9%-13.5%19.7%-53.6%-28.2%-36.4%第9组-24.5%-18.8%-13.3%4.7%-16.7%-18.1%-2.0%-70.0%-14.3%4.3%第10组(涨幅最低)-46.4%-26.2%-32.4%-48.3%-44.2%-48.3%3.2%-73.9%-23.1%-27.9%HK2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)13.0%40.0%60.8%113.3%75.0%58.1%53.8%33.3%-0.7%