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1、 业绩概览:收入增速回暖,拨备支撑盈利收入端:营收增速触底回升,非息收入贡献可观。A 股上市银行1上半年营收同比+5.9%(Q1 同比+3.7%),2020 年以来的营收下行趋势企稳。拆分来看:利息净收入增速总体平稳。一季度和上半年同比增速均为 4.8%,二季度资产扩张总体平稳(20Q2 和 21Q2 生息资产分别+1.4%/1.6%),受资产端拖累影响,当季息差仍有行业性小幅回落。手续费及佣金净收入保持景气增长。一季度和上半年同比增速分别为 11.1%/8.3%,主要是今年以来财富管理业务驱动的零售中收保持乐观增长。其他非息二季度显著多增。一季度和上半年同比增速分别为-9.5%/+9.3%,
2、今年 4月以来市场利率中枢稳中有降,使得交易类收入呈现同比显著改善趋势。盈利端:Q2 拨备减计支撑盈利,行业利润录得双位数增长。上市银行上半年 PPOP同比+4.9%,而归母净利润同比+13.0(Q1 为+4.6%),二季度拨备对盈利增速的拉动作用近 9 pct。拨备计提回归常态的背后,广义指标和前瞻指标指向资产质量仍在稳中向好。前瞻而言,拨备带来的反哺效应下,上半年的较高增速为全年银行业盈利增长奠定了基础,后续季度关注中收持续增长和息差边际企稳带来的收入端改善机会。图 1:19Q4-21Q2 上市银行营业收入、PPOP 和归母净利润增速(累积同比)15.0%10.310.0%5.0%10.2
3、8.8营业收入PPOP归母净利润6.95.86.14.613.05.96.90.0%-5.0%-10.0%7.25.55.25.56.30.72.53.74.9-15.0%-9.4-7.72019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2资料来源:各公司财报,表 1:上市银行盈利同比增速分解(累积同比)2020N2021Q12021H利息净收入+6.9%+4.8%+4.8%#规模+11.7%+7.8%+8.9%#息差-4.8%-3.0%-4.1%非息-1.4%-1.0%+1.1%1 注:包括 36 家 A 股银行,包括 6 家大型银行、9 家股份制银行、13
4、家城商行和 8 家农商;由于部分季度财务数据不全,未包含新上市的厦门、重庆、齐鲁、瑞丰及沪农商行。报告后续部分无特殊说明外,包括全部 41 家 A 股上市银行。2020N2021Q12021H成本+0.6%-1.2%-1.0%拨备-6.6%+1.8%+8.8%其他-0.2%+0.1%0.0%税收+1.3%+0.1%-0.9%净利润+0.7%+4.5%+12.7%少数股东损益+0.0%+0.1%+0.2%归母净利润+0.7%+4.6%+13.0%资料来源:各公司财报, 注:(1)上述为净利润增速因素拆解,数据并非对应要素的绝对增速水平;(2)2020 年年报开始上市银行对信用卡分期还款业务进行了
5、调整,上述数据已对 2019 年同期数据进行重述调整个体而言,基数效应叠加增量差异,银行间依旧呈现分化态势:1、大银行当季盈利显著修复:上半年归母净利润同比+12.1%(Q1 同比+2.5%),四大行增速区间在 10%-13%水平,邮储银行录得 21.8%同比增长;2、股份行总体占优但内部分化明显:上半年归母净利润同比+14.5%(Q1 同比+8.4%),平安(+28.5%)、兴业(+23.1%)、招行(+22.8%)、光大(22.2%)四家股份行均录得 20%+同比增长,而部分银行增速仍在零增长附近;3、城农商区域经营分化特点明显:城商行、农商行上半年同比+14.9%/+13.8%(Q1同比
6、+10.1%/+4.3%),部分江浙地区城农商行以及部分中部地区城商行上半年盈利增速达到 20%+。总体来看,上半年业务结构占优、区域结构占优的上市银行,收入端表现出更强的增长属性。此外,资产质量可靠性强,拨备抵补能力足的上市银行,在盈利端亦表现出更强的弹性。表 2:A 股上市银行收入和盈利增长情况营业收入(YoY)PPOP(YoY)归母净利润(YoY)20Q120H120Q120H120Q120H1工行3.2%4.3%2.8%5.6%1.5%9.9%建行3.4%7.0%3.4%4.4%2.8%11.4%农行4.1%7.8%3.8%7.6%2.6%12.4%中行6.6%6.0%3.2%3.0%
7、2.7%11.8%交行5.1%5.6%10.2%9.1%2.3%15.1%邮储7.1%7.7%7.3%8.3%5.5%21.8%大银行+4.4%+6.3%+3.9%+5.6%+2.5%+12.1%中信0.8%3.5%-1.3%2.3%8.2%13.7%招商10.6%13.7%9.1%14.2%15.2%22.8%民生-12.7%-10.5%-16.1%-13.2%-11.4%-6.7%兴业10.8%8.9%9.5%8.5%13.7%23.1%浦发-10.6%-4.0%-15.0%-7.4%7.7%3.0%光大3.7%6.8%3.0%5.9%6.3%22.2%华夏0.1%1.1%-2.0%-1.
8、7%10.6%17.6%平安10.2%8.1%10.0%8.1%18.5%28.5%营业收入(YoY)PPOP(YoY)归母净利润(YoY)20Q120H120Q120H120Q120H1浙商-3.4%3.0%-2.6%0.1%1.1%1.1%股份行+1.7%+4.0%-0.5%+2.5%+8.4%+14.5%北京-3.2%0.6%-6.8%-4.2%3.5%9.3%南京1.6%14.1%-2.6%13.3%9.3%17.1%宁波21.8%25.2%21.0%24.4%18.3%21.4%江苏17.1%22.7%21.4%26.5%22.8%25.2%贵阳-14.7%-9.4%-18.8%-1
9、2.8%4.4%3.2%杭州14.2%15.7%16.2%15.5%16.3%23.1%上海5.6%9.0%4.0%7.2%6.0%10.3%成都19.9%25.3%20.1%27.9%18.1%23.1%郑州-14.4%-9.9%-17.1%-11.4%2.8%1.5%长沙1.2%17.3%-2.1%19.7%5.1%21.2%青岛-2.6%-12.5%-5.4%-18.1%16.3%17.4%西安7.7%5.6%5.5%5.6%-8.0%5.2%苏州7.7%1.7%4.6%-2.2%14.7%16.1%厦门-16.1%-10.9%45.1%-20.1%7.4%12.6%重庆10.4%11.
10、3%63.5%8.2%4.1%4.5%齐鲁14.4%17.0%14.2%18.1%8.2%11.9%城商行+6.0%+10.4%+5.9%+8.6%+10.1%+14.9%江阴-4.3%-2.0%-9.4%-7.0%8.6%15.4%无锡3.6%11.5%4.7%11.9%6.0%15.8%常熟5.0%7.7%4.9%8.0%4.8%15.5%苏农-0.8%1.8%-4.4%2.2%4.8%17.2%张家港6.7%4.9%5.0%2.0%14.2%20.9%紫金-22.1%-14.4%-32.9%-24.6%2.2%2.7%青农商-6.1%9.1%-8.4%10.6%7.0%12.1%渝农商7
11、.4%9.0%6.1%8.4%5.5%10.6%瑞丰-3.7%2.5%-4.4%1.4%7.2%12.7%沪农商1.0%6.8%-5.2%-1.2%0.0%18.2%农商行+1.0%+6.1%-2.5%+3.2%+4.3%+13.8%资料来源:各公司财报, 资产负债:表内外规模保持平稳资产负债:表内外规模保持平稳。1)资产增长平稳,21Q2 上市银行总资产增幅+1.8%(去年同期+2.6%),整体略有放缓,当季银行进一步强化信贷投放,新增总资产中信贷占比提高 8.6pct 至 79.6%。2)银行理财规模保持平稳,截至半年末,上市银行非保本理财规模 22.8 万亿元,较年初微降 0.4%,主要
12、是上半年部分大行理财结构调整一定程度影响了规模增长。3)负债结构多元,二季度上市银行总负债环比+1.8%,增速与资产端匹配,信用派生放缓一定程度制约负债增长,存款在负债中增量占比较一季度-11.2pct 至 75.3%,部分中小银行当季强化了主动负债品种的组织。表内资产:二季度扩表速度平稳二季度资产整体增速平稳。21Q2 上市银行总资产增幅 1.8%,较去年同期下滑 0.8pct(较 19Q2 下滑 1pct)。经历一季度信贷投放积极带来的资产快速增长后(21Q1 增速+4.0%),随着 4-5 月社融增速有所回落,银行资产投放逐步放缓。图 2:上市银行总资产季度环比2019202020214
13、.94.03.02.82.61.82.21.30.81.16.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%Q1Q2Q3Q4资料来源:各公司财报,结构来看,二季度资产增长主要来自信贷投放。在整体增速放缓的背景下,二季度信贷新增占比高达 79.6%,较一季度增加 8.6pct,集中度进一步提升。同业资产和投资增长下滑,推测与资金面时点性紧张有关。图 3:二季度信贷为资产增长主要方向图 4:当季各类资产增长幅度均有所放缓贷款投资同业贷款投资同业120000100000800006000040000200000-2000020Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q225.0%20
14、.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q2资料来源:各公司财报, 注:投资包含 FVTPL项下资产资料来源:各公司财报, 注:投资包含 FVTPL项下资产个体而言,上半年大银行与股份行扩表放缓更为明显。大银行、股份行、城商行、农商行上半年总资产增速分别为 7.9%/7.7%/12.8%/13.6%,农商行借助信贷与投资两方面发力,而股份行和城商行则更多借助信贷和同业资产,大银行除信贷外资产增速都有所放缓。表 3:上市银行资产及细项同比增长情况2021Q1(YoY)2021H(YoY)总资产信贷投资同业总资产信贷投资同业工行7
15、.1%11.2%6.8%3.2%6.1%11.2%5.7%-22.2%2021Q1(YoY)2021H(YoY)建行8.4%10.6%11.2%-22.2%7.9%9.9%7.3%-16.2%农行8.8%13.4%3.5%12.4%8.2%13.4%1.5%6.7%中行7.5%8.5%5.0%1.3%9.0%9.9%8.3%7.5%交行6.9%10.7%1.6%8.7%7.0%10.8%3.2%2.8%邮储10.8%14.2%7.1%6.0%11.4%13.0%3.1%66.3%大银行8.1%11.2%6.2%-0.4%7.9%11.2%5.0%-3.4%中信10.7%11.8%14.6%-7
16、.0%10.4%11.7%12.2%-9.9%招商11.6%12.3%12.9%-11.5%10.6%11.0%4.2%22.9%民生1.4%8.5%-8.0%-20.9%-1.0%6.1%-13.4%-3.3%兴业7.8%15.1%2.8%-24.3%7.5%11.5%-1.9%48.3%浦发10.5%15.3%2.8%14.9%8.0%13.5%-0.3%35.9%光大6.7%9.1%11.0%-38.8%7.1%10.9%8.5%-31.8%华夏11.6%10.6%10.1%92.2%7.7%6.2%5.9%199.7%平安10.7%13.7%1.6%38.2%13.0%14.6%4.4
17、%20.8%浙商12.7%15.4%2.8%81.1%8.2%13.0%-4.3%126.1%股份行8.8%12.3%5.2%-7.2%7.7%10.9%1.1%18.2%北京8.7%13.4%-0.1%52.3%6.1%8.2%-2.6%31.6%南京9.3%17.8%12.3%13.8%13.6%17.3%13.9%-16.9%宁波19.7%25.9%22.9%-48.5%21.4%27.0%22.3%-29.5%江苏14.0%15.8%6.6%86.1%14.7%17.0%8.7%74.7%贵阳5.9%12.3%-2.3%43.9%4.4%15.0%-3.1%-32.2%杭州18.1%1
18、9.2%18.0%10.3%20.1%19.3%20.6%26.5%上海11.6%15.7%5.5%21.5%10.1%15.2%6.8%5.0%成都24.6%28.8%4.6%216.1%19.8%35.0%7.2%119.0%郑州4.1%21.5%-8.4%-53.1%7.1%24.4%-9.5%-1.6%长沙18.6%20.1%17.8%4.6%16.7%18.8%17.4%57.0%青岛19.5%19.3%21.1%120.7%13.9%15.8%11.9%-20.8%西安10.5%10.7%5.9%116.7%8.4%7.5%12.2%0.9%苏州13.2%16.6%10.5%9.8
19、%15.5%14.2%22.5%-6.1%城商行13.0%17.3%8.4%34.2%12.8%16.4%9.1%16.8%江阴9.3%15.0%2.4%-26.3%9.4%18.2%-7.8%26.2%无锡12.6%19.1%11.5%-5.6%13.7%20.2%5.7%-9.8%常熟18.2%17.6%16.6%42.9%14.8%20.6%4.3%-33.6%苏农8.3%15.0%10.7%-26.3%13.5%18.2%10.0%23.8%张家港16.5%18.9%16.2%-5.6%17.5%19.2%32.9%-81.5%紫金11.2%18.0%4.0%37.2%7.9%16.2
20、%-4.0%12.8%青农商20.9%19.8%19.2%68.6%14.6%15.9%11.7%22.7%渝农商13.4%19.6%15.5%-3.2%14.1%18.7%21.3%-12.3%农商行14.3%18.6%14.0%4.2%13.6%18.3%13.9%-7.6%合计8.7%11.9%6.2%0.1%8.3%11.5%4.5%2.1%资料来源:各公司财报,表外资产:银行理财规模保持平稳上半年非保本理财规模保持平稳。截至半年末,A 股上市银行非保本理财规模 22.8 万亿元,比年初微降 0.4%。行际间分化明显: 大行呈现降势(-5.7%),或与现金管理类产品整改相关; 股份行稳
21、中有升(+3.9%),平安等理财业务转型银行发力明显,招行保持财富管理头部优势; 部分城商行呈现高增趋势,如青岛(+26.3%)、西安(+19.2%)、苏州(+18.1%),一定程度与上述银行重点发展理财业务有关。表 4:上市银行非保本理财规模(单位:亿元)非保本理财余额非保本理财当期增量(HoH)2020H2020N2021H2020H2020N2021H工行24,94627,08423,714-1,4752,138-3,370建行18,28421,67918,211-1,4013,395-3,468农行18,90621,70621,460-7012,800-246中行13,20913,88
22、914,137890680248交行11,40212,12012,2181,37071798邮储9,0488,6539,361949-395708大银行95,795105,13199,100 -367 9,336 -6,031中信12,62912,87113,544627242673招商25,65824,45626,4392,722-1,2021,982民生8,8548,6118,527-87-243-84兴业13,42914,47615,7473181,0471,271浦发14,99013,45512,377519-1,535-1,078光大7,9548,3638,771166409409华
23、夏6,4495,8855,940-73-56455平安6,6536,4827,561748-1711,079浙商2,9272,8892,426-378-38-463股份行99,54297,488101,333 4,562 -2,054 3,845北京3,2223,2813,3181175937南京3,0322,8542,891108-17837宁波2,6622,5992,728-14-63129江苏3,3503,5163,70864166192贵阳7998798402680-39杭州2,3252,7712,73913447-33上海3,4093,8224,152361413329成都34352
24、85774818549郑州4594914833532-8长沙452499549-484749青岛1,0451,2411,56735196326西安22636043010213469苏州517564666347102城商行21,84123,40624,646 852 1,565 1,240江阴148173187372515无锡1601711682111-3常熟258300267-3142-33苏农2092602284151-32张家港183214230-83116紫金86564-20-29-52青农商289351372306221渝农商1,3011,3731,394-217222非保本理财余额非
25、保本理财当期增量(HoH)农商行2,6342,8982,851 51 264 -47合计219,811228,923227,930 5,097 9,111 -992资料来源:各公司财报,表内负债:存款增长为主,整体增速放缓总量来看,负债增速与资产匹配。二季度上市银行总负债环比+1.8%,增速与资产端匹配,信用派生放缓一定程度制约负债增长。图 5:上市银行总负债季度环比2019202020215.04.13.02.8 2.81.82.11.20.90.36.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%Q1Q2Q3Q4资料来源:各公司财报,结构来看,二季度负债增长以存款为主,但占比降低。二
26、季度上市银行存款在负债中增量占比 75.3%,仍占负债增长主导地位,但较一季度下滑 11.2pct,新增存款规模单季环比-54%,主要系二季度一般性存款压降明显。受债券市场低迷影响,应付债券环比增长同样明显下滑。同业负债规模相对保持稳定。图 6:二季度负债增长以存款为主,但占比降低图 7:同业负债整体增速放缓100000800006000040000200000-20000存款债券同业10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%存款债券同业20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q220Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q2资料来源:各公司财报,资
27、料来源:各公司财报,个体而言,负债结构差异明显。从二季度情况看,股份行与城商行存款规模在竞争趋于激烈的背景下增长较快,大银行、股份行、城商行、农商行存款增速分别为+1.0%/+3.0%/+2.3%/+0.2%。农商行同业负债与应付债券增长较快,以同业负债为代表的高成本主动负债增速有所回升也一定程度说明部分中小行负债压力较大。表 5:上市银行负债及细项同比增长情况总负债2021Q1(YoY)存款债券同业总负债2021Q2(YoY)存款债券同业工行7.0%7.0%7.4%3.0%5.7%5.9%7.6%1.6%建行8.6%12.1%-12.7%-18.8%8.0%9.1%4.7%-3.9%农行8.
28、6%11.7%23.8%-12.4%8.2%7.5%26.7%7.7%中行7.7%6.7%13.5%10.5%9.2%6.5%19.6%33.1%交行6.6%9.9%23.2%-4.3%6.3%6.9%17.9%-5.4%邮储10.5%10.8%-40.2%2.8%11.1%10.6%-54.3%52.9%大银行8.0%9.5%15.1%-3.7%7.8%7.5%14.2%7.6%中信11.3%8.6%18.5%22.1%10.2%5.0%41.8%5.1%招商11.0%12.8%-22.4%23.2%9.9%9.9%4.0%11.3%民生1.4%-1.4%17.0%-3.8%-1.8%-1.
29、3%-9.3%-4.0%兴业7.4%2.9%32.2%-1.3%6.9%2.2%10.7%8.8%浦发10.2%7.6%17.8%21.5%7.4%6.4%19.9%3.5%光大5.9%1.6%42.4%17.0%6.2%0.4%74.2%-6.3%华夏12.3%6.2%19.8%32.0%7.9%1.4%9.5%20.3%平安11.1%6.7%37.5%22.0%13.6%15.3%43.4%-15.4%浙商13.5%2.9%66.5%95.9%8.5%2.0%47.1%49.0%股份行8.7%5.9%21.2%13.9%7.3%4.8%21.7%4.5%北京9.0%7.1%-9.7%29.
30、9%6.0%4.3%-3.5%15.3%南京8.5%11.5%-7.8%61.0%13.7%10.9%13.2%44.5%宁波20.0%11.5%12.0%74.4%22.3%13.2%49.2%23.5%江苏12.7%5.9%11.9%38.4%14.6%8.5%15.0%41.9%贵阳5.6%8.5%-22.2%48.2%3.0%8.5%-25.4%30.4%杭州18.3%14.3%3.6%76.3%21.0%10.5%52.9%76.6%上海12.0%12.7%30.1%2.6%10.3%10.6%34.1%1.6%成都24.3%20.9%36.5%31.1%19.2%20.1%5.4%
31、-28.1%郑州3.2%-2.1%-4.7%28.2%6.3%2.0%-5.4%33.0%长沙18.3%14.0%10.4%57.1%16.2%9.6%17.1%48.4%青岛21.1%23.1%9.4%13.9%14.6%12.1%18.6%8.3%西安10.8%25.3%-28.0%-48.7%8.4%14.2%-9.3%-15.3%苏州13.5%11.0%-17.0%35.0%16.1%5.9%26.5%51.9%城商行12.9%10.7%2.5%28.6%12.9%9.4%13.9%19.9%江阴10.0%10.1%-71.1%98.5%9.9%8.5%-68.4%237.7%无锡12
32、.1%9.2%-8.3%80.9%12.5%10.9%25.3%-20.7%常熟19.5%21.8%-36.8%14.3%15.4%16.7%15.3%-22.0%苏农8.7%16.4%1.6%-61.5%14.2%12.2%69.9%-9.4%张家港17.6%18.7%4.5%11.3%16.8%15.6%184.0%-8.5%紫金11.5%16.2%-2.7%-12.2%7.7%8.1%0.6%10.9%青农商20.6%16.7%23.3%22.6%13.4%11.0%2.3%48.6%总负债2021Q1(YoY)存款债券同业总负债2021Q2(YoY)存款债券同业渝农商14.2%8.2%
33、22.3%40.3%14.8%4.5%56.3%9.5%农商行14.8%12.5%12.4%19.5%13.7%8.7%31.0%16.4%合计8.7%8.8%15.5%5.4%8.1%7.1%17.8%7.5%资料来源:各公司财报, 息差:下行放缓息差表现:下行放缓。通过期初期末平均法测算(已还原信用卡分期收入重分类影响), 2021 年上半年上市银行净息差 2.07%,较一季度小幅下降 2bps:1)资产端,收益率较一季度下降 2bps 至 3.85%,年初存量贷款重定价因素扰动过后,二季度资产端收益率下行压力趋于缓解;2)负债端,付息率较一季度小幅上行 1bp 至 1.91%,大银行、城
34、农商行负债成本较一季度均有所上行,当季货币市场利率中枢有所下行,判断主要是存款成本保持刚性所致。展望来看,6 月自律机制调整存款定价政策,同时贷款、投资类资产定价亦有望趋稳,我们预计后续行业总体净息差运行有望步入平稳阶段。利息净收入:增速平稳利息净收入增速保持平稳,城商行表现较好。上半年 41 家上市银行利息净收入合计同比+4.9%(一季度同比+4.8%),整体利息业务表现呈现平稳态势。城商行利息净收入增速较快,上半年同比+11.7%,其中江苏、宁波、成都利息净收入增速超过 15%。表 6:上市银行利息业务增速情况(累计同比)21Q1利息收入21Q221Q1利息支出21Q221Q1利息净收入2
35、1Q2工行2.8%3.8%1.8%1.9%3.5%5.1%建行6.0%6.3%8.4%7.8%4.3%5.2%农行6.2%7.6%8.2%9.8%4.8%6.1%中行-1.9%0.6%-7.8%-0.5%3.7%1.6%交行-3.7%-1.2%-9.2%-6.2%4.9%6.3%邮储9.0%9.0%14.4%13.4%5.8%6.2%大银行3.4%4.6%2.2%4.2%4.3%5.0%中信0.5%2.1%-0.3%3.9%1.3%0.2%招商1.9%3.6%-7.3%-4.6%8.2%9.3%民生-3.9%-4.6%-7.8%-4.5%0.7%-4.7%兴业4.7%3.3%-1.2%0.7%
36、12.1%6.5%浦发-0.6%2.0%6.7%7.0%-8.1%-3.5%光大2.2%1.8%1.7%1.3%2.7%2.3%华夏7.3%6.0%11.6%12.3%3.9%1.0%平安3.0%4.6%-3.5%1.8%8.5%6.8%浙商6.5%7.9%5.9%5.6%7.3%10.8%股份行1.6%2.2%-0.5%1.7%3.7%2.7%北京-1.3%0.0%-2.6%0.4%0.2%-0.6%南京9.6%9.6%4.2%4.4%17.4%17.4%21Q1利息收入21Q221Q1利息支出21Q221Q1利息净收入21Q2宁波17.0%17.0%3.8%12.5%32.1%21.9%江
37、苏13.0%14.6%0.7%3.4%34.3%33.2%贵阳3.6%3.8%8.0%10.4%-1.2%-3.2%杭州11.4%12.5%7.0%11.8%17.1%13.4%上海5.1%7.5%1.9%6.8%9.8%8.3%成都18.7%21.8%17.5%23.7%19.9%19.8%郑州7.2%8.1%9.7%10.0%4.3%5.9%长沙12.6%15.0%14.9%16.4%10.3%13.5%青岛8.0%7.1%14.3%15.6%1.4%-2.1%西安8.9%9.5%9.2%12.3%8.6%6.3%苏州5.2%6.8%4.4%11.1%6.1%2.0%厦门8.4%11.3%
38、6.7%10.1%9.3%13.1%重庆9.7%9.1%9.3%12.4%10.3%4.9%齐鲁16.0%17.5%17.9%20.2%13.9%14.5%城商行8.4%9.5%4.3%7.8%13.6%11.7%江阴7.7%8.0%15.7%11.1%0.0%4.7%无锡7.4%10.3%8.2%10.4%6.5%10.2%常熟4.8%7.7%13.2%14.7%-0.5%3.1%苏农4.9%8.6%7.5%14.7%3.0%3.8%张家港10.0%12.4%26.0%27.9%-1.0%1.3%紫金7.8%9.6%13.4%18.4%2.2%1.0%青农商13.3%13.6%20.0%22
39、.6%7.2%5.7%渝农商9.4%11.6%9.4%15.0%9.5%8.5%瑞丰9.2%12.8%18.0%16.9%1.9%9.0%沪农商10.6%11.5%14.8%15.0%6.1%7.7%农商行9.4%11.1%13.4%16.1%5.7%6.6%合计3.4%4.5%1.8%4.0%4.8%4.9%资料来源:各公司财报, 注:2020 年及 2021 年上半年,部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入,上述表格已进行重述处理净息差:小幅下行,边际趋稳净息差情况看,下行趋势放缓,负债成本小幅上行。以期初期末平均法测算,2021 年上半年 41 家上市银行累计净息差为
40、 2.07%,较一季度下降 2BP,整体下行趋势有所放缓,主要是资产端收益下行压力降低明显。二季度大银行、城商行及农商行负债成本较一季度均有所上行,考虑到资金面环境较为宽松,推测主要是存款端竞争较为激烈,存款成本小幅上行所致。表 7:期初期末平均法计算各家银行息差情况20Q4净息差(累计)21Q121Q2生息资产收益率(累计)20Q421Q121Q2计息负债成本率(累计)20Q421Q121Q2工行2.14%2.09%2.07%3.62%3.49%3.47%1.63%1.55%1.55%建行2.22%2.14%2.12%3.81%3.70%3.69%1.78%1.75%1.76%农行2.15%
41、2.08%2.11%3.67%3.61%3.68%1.68%1.68%1.71%中行1.86%1.77%1.75%3.41%3.24%3.24%1.68%1.60%1.62%20Q4净息差(累计)21Q121Q2生息资产收益率(累计)20Q421Q121Q2计息负债成本率(累计)20Q421Q121Q2交行1.59%1.53%1.53%3.82%3.59%3.59%2.52%2.32%2.34%邮储2.41%2.38%2.34%3.95%3.94%3.92%1.62%1.61%1.63%大银行2.09%2.02%2.01%3.67%3.56%3.56%1.74%1.69%1.71%中信2.20
42、%2.13%2.10%4.37%4.33%4.32%2.29%2.26%2.28%招商2.51%2.54%2.49%4.17%4.06%3.99%1.76%1.60%1.60%民生2.21%2.15%2.07%4.68%4.49%4.43%2.52%2.43%2.46%兴业2.17%2.16%2.09%4.60%4.57%4.48%2.37%2.34%2.32%浦发2.05%1.88%1.86%4.37%4.13%4.11%2.34%2.30%2.30%光大2.37%2.27%2.23%4.75%4.56%4.51%2.47%2.33%2.33%华夏2.64%2.50%2.47%4.74%4.
43、69%4.66%2.27%2.35%2.34%平安2.59%2.93%2.86%4.86%5.12%5.05%2.35%2.27%2.25%浙商2.16%2.21%2.18%5.02%4.90%4.83%2.85%2.68%2.63%股份行2.30%2.27%2.23%4.54%4.44%4.39%2.30%2.23%2.23%北京1.96%1.91%1.86%4.27%4.14%4.13%2.41%2.29%2.33%南京1.88%2.05%1.97%4.64%4.66%4.58%2.70%2.54%2.53%宁波2.41%2.63%2.36%4.92%4.98%4.75%2.27%2.12
44、%2.18%江苏1.92%2.09%2.10%4.80%4.81%4.83%2.78%2.64%2.65%贵阳2.67%2.42%2.43%5.43%5.33%5.39%2.72%2.88%2.94%杭州1.91%1.99%1.92%4.24%4.33%4.28%2.34%2.36%2.35%上海1.81%1.75%1.76%4.20%4.09%4.10%2.27%2.26%2.25%成都2.18%2.10%2.14%4.35%4.31%4.41%2.13%2.19%2.25%郑州2.48%2.33%2.39%5.28%5.23%5.23%2.67%2.78%2.73%长沙2.60%2.45%
45、2.47%5.08%4.97%4.99%2.38%2.44%2.44%青岛2.18%1.99%1.86%4.60%4.33%4.24%2.38%2.27%2.28%西安2.21%2.14%2.07%4.68%4.62%4.59%2.66%2.69%2.73%苏州2.43%2.25%2.22%5.14%4.79%4.87%2.57%2.41%2.50%厦门1.87%1.53%1.52%4.36%3.97%3.91%2.57%2.58%2.52%重庆2.21%2.15%2.03%5.04%4.97%4.83%2.93%2.95%2.94%齐鲁2.07%2.00%1.96%4.31%4.25%4.2
46、2%2.29%2.33%2.36%城商行2.07%2.07%2.03%4.59%4.53%4.50%2.48%2.42%2.44%江阴2.03%1.93%1.96%4.18%4.11%4.12%2.28%2.32%2.30%无锡2.05%1.94%1.93%4.42%4.25%4.26%2.47%2.44%2.48%常熟3.17%2.92%3.00%5.36%5.05%5.18%2.39%2.29%2.35%苏农2.38%2.36%2.21%4.18%4.25%4.11%1.94%2.01%2.03%张家港2.78%2.53%2.48%4.85%4.77%4.74%2.25%2.41%2.42
47、%紫金1.86%1.86%1.82%3.78%3.90%3.88%2.08%2.19%2.22%青农商2.46%2.19%2.20%4.62%4.41%4.44%2.10%2.18%2.22%渝农商2.28%2.32%2.29%4.31%4.45%4.44%2.21%2.29%2.31%瑞丰2.56%2.34%2.28%4.70%4.57%4.53%2.33%2.42%2.43%沪农商1.96%1.91%1.92%4.07%4.11%4.11%2.22%2.25%2.24%农商行2.25%2.18%2.17%4.33%4.34%4.34%2.21%2.27%2.28%合计2.14%2.09%2
48、.07%3.97%3.87%3.85%1.96%1.90%1.91%资料来源:各公司财报, 注:2020 年及 2021 年上半年,部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入,上述表格已进行重述处理表 8:上市银行公布净息差数据20202021Q12021H工行2.15%2.14%2.12%建行2.19%2.13%2.13%农行2.20%未公布2.12%中行1.85%未公布1.76%交行1.57%1.54%1.55%邮储2.42%2.40%2.37%中信2.26%未公布2.09%招商2.49%2.52%2.49%民生2.14%未公布2.02%兴业2.36%未公布2.32%浦发2
49、.02%未公布1.84%光大2.29%未公布2.20%华夏2.59%2.45%2.41%平安2.88%2.87%2.83%浙商2.19%未公布2.27%北京1.92%未公布1.84%南京1.86%1.96%1.91%宁波2.30%2.55%2.33%江苏2.14%未公布2.29%贵阳2.52%2.23%2.26%杭州1.98%未公布1.93%上海1.82%1.73%1.73%成都2.19%未公布2.11%郑州2.40%未公布2.24%长沙2.58%未公布2.41%青岛2.13%2.02%1.90%西安2.16%未公布2.00%苏州2.22%未公布2.00%厦门1.65%未公布1.63%重庆2.
50、27%未公布2.06%齐鲁2.15%未公布2.00%江阴2.19%未公布2.18%无锡2.07%未公布1.96%常熟3.18%未公布3.02%苏农2.50%未公布2.20%张家港2.74%未公布2.41%紫金1.91%未公布1.81%青农商2.52%未公布2.24%渝农商2.25%未公布2.23%瑞丰2.51%未公布2.28%沪农商1.91%未公布1.81%资料来源:各公司财报, 非息表现:中收改善显著,其他非息扰动非息收入:中收景气,交投收益高增。1)中收保持较快增速:上半年 41 家上市银行手续费及佣金净收入合计同比+8.3%(一季度同比+11.0%),增速较一季度有所回落,但景气度仍处较
51、高水平,驱动因素主要来自于财富管理相关的零售业务高速增长。2)投资收入显著回暖:上半年公允价值变动损益、投资收益同比分别+203 亿元/-129 亿元(一季度同比分别-100 亿元/-269 亿元),二季度市场利率中枢下移背景下,债券及基金估值上升,从而推动公允价值收益增长。此外,除投资业务外,当季租赁、保险等业务表现良好,贡献子公司收入增长。中收增速略有回落,但仍保持较快增长手续费及佣金净收入保持较快增长。上半年上市银行手续费及佣金净收入同比+8.3%(一季度同比+11.0%),增速较一季度有所回落,但仍高于去年四个季度,表明中间业务延续恢复态势。上半年资本市场表现积极,资管产品代销业务收入
52、增长明显,如代销基金/信托/保险收入同比分别增长 39.8%/21.0%/33.7%,平安银行代理基金/保险/理财收入分别同比增长 172.6%/44.3%/33.3%。图 8:上半年上市银行中收增速达到 8.3%图 9:上半年城农商行中收增速较快(累计)12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%上市银行手续费及佣金净收入累计增速11.08.36.77.06.05.525.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%20Q220Q320Q421Q121Q220Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q2大银行股份行城商行农商行资料来源:各公司财报,
53、 注:2020 年及 2021 年上半年,部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入,上述表格已进行重述处理资料来源:各公司财报, 注:2020 年及 2021 年上半年,部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入,上述表格已进行重述处理表 9:上市银行手续费及佣金净收入增速2020H2020Q32020N2021Q12021H工行0.5%0.3%0.5%1.3%0.5%建行4.3%4.2%3.3%8.8%6.8%农行2.9%5.4%2.2%12.2%8.8%中行-0.4%0.6%2.3%18.1%11.9%交行5.0%1.5%3.3%-0.5%2.8%邮储4.
54、2%11.2%12.8%51.6%37.9%大银行2.2%2.6%2.5%9.3%6.8%中信5.9%1.0%7.9%24.0%18.2%招商8.5%10.7%11.2%23.3%23.6%民生4.2%0.9%-1.9%-10.5%-12.9%2020H2020Q32020N2021Q12021H兴业28.4%27.4%24.1%34.2%23.9%浦发10.9%26.5%37.0%-14.5%-10.0%光大10.9%8.1%5.0%6.7%6.2%华夏-4.1%0.0%3.7%11.5%-13.6%平安7.2%15.8%18.3%20.7%20.4%浙商15.4%10.8%12.1%-14
55、.3%-21.3%股份行9.8%11.9%13.6%13.2%11.1%北京-13.7%-6.8%-9.8%-16.7%-25.9%南京21.4%16.6%25.0%58.2%32.0%宁波46.5%41.8%24.1%2.4%-0.7%江苏12.7%10.5%17.9%48.3%28.4%贵阳8.9%-4.8%18.1%-9.1%-18.0%杭州120.9%93.7%101.7%147.2%19.5%上海8.4%7.3%9.5%22.2%39.7%成都22.7%29.0%22.6%55.8%55.5%郑州36.3%19.9%9.8%-16.8%-30.0%长沙-4.3%-0.9%-6.3%2
56、.7%34.3%青岛92.6%63.4%39.0%8.2%-26.2%西安-14.7%-1.8%8.5%29.0%8.3%苏州10.5%10.9%32.5%63.8%37.4%厦门14.7%4.8%-0.1%24.8%19.2%重庆12.8%16.4%9.3%-22.2%-17.9%齐鲁61.5%49.4%41.5%57.5%48.6%城商行18.2%17.3%16.2%20.1%7.9%江阴63.8%48.8%1.2%48.4%63.4%无锡62.2%50.1%90.6%102.8%93.2%常熟-5.8%-20.8%-31.1%191.8%52.8%苏农73.5%13.5%1.6%1.4%
57、90.2%张家港69.2%-25.8%-234.2%143.3%135.1%紫金-15.1%22.0%-43.9%-45.7%-57.7%青农商44.1%49.8%52.0%92.7%77.7%渝农商8.8%8.2%29.7%-13.7%-8.7%瑞丰-33.3%20.6%19.6%沪农商-22.9%-5.5%-11.8%-11.3%农商行-7.6%10.7%8.9%0.8%1.5%合计5.5%6.7%7.0%11.0%8.3%资料来源:各公司财报, 注:(1)2019 年同期,中信银行将信用卡现金分期收入重分类至利息收入,并对去年同期相关数据进行重述;(2)2020 年及 2021 年上半年
58、,部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入,上述表格已进行重述处理利率中枢下行驱动公允价值收益提升,投资业务恢复明显上半年上市银行除手续费外非息收入同比+9.3%(一季度-9.6%),投资业务改善明显。拆分来看,上半年 41 家上市银行公允价值变动损益同比+15.52%(Q1 同比-46.52%),投资收益同比-7.84%(Q1 同比-27.65%),资金市场利率宽松环境下,利率中枢下移驱动债券及基金估值提升,推动公允价值增长。除投资业务外,租赁、保险等业务表现良好,贡献子公司收入增长。图 10:上市银行非息收入及其他非息收入累计同比增速情况15.0%非息收入累计同比增速其他
59、非息收入累计同比增速11.010.0%6.05.56.77.05.0%0.0%5.98.39.3-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%1.7-9.6-6.3-9.620Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q2资料来源:Wind, 注;非息收入累计增速中,已对信用卡分期收入进行相应重述表 10:上市银行其他非息收入规模(单位:亿元)其他非息收入合计#投资收益#公允价值变动损益#汇兑损益其他业务收入2020H2021H2020H2021H2020H2021H2020H2021H2020H2021H工行5305561821796813-4016320348建行426508109117-5-62043
60、302354农行279340-34110108-43-1132216241中行38547462134153746-6262308交行2873049183-17131614197195邮储1371415565647714-645大银行2,0432,3244656882339245931,3011,451中信1171229973930101503招商152172115111-12718193134民生1459313648-17215-12125兴34552334浦发144144123671061-221313光大33612937-1191144华夏172712174801
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