信贷与社融超预期下半年看项目贷款与居民消费贷款

1、一、新增社融超预期，存量社融同比增 10.96%6 月社融新增 3.67 万亿，新增量较去年同期增加 2019 亿，社融新增规模大超市场预期，市场预期在 3.02 万亿左右。存量社融同比增速降幅大幅收敛、同比增 10.96 %，环比 5 月微降 0.07 个百分点（5 月环比下降0.6 个百分点）。图表：新口径社融同比增速新增社融（亿）比去年同期增加（亿）同比增速2019/1/3146,79115,37410.85%2019/2/289,665-2,39910.65%2019/3/3129,60212,51111.16%2019/4/3016,710-5,53310.81%2019/5/311

2、7,1245,89011.03%2019/6/3026,2435,87011.19%2019/7/3112,872-5,51010.85%2019/8/3121,956-2,12210.68%2019/9/3025,1422,08110.67%2019/10/318,680-85810.58%2019/11/3019,9373,81010.67%2019/12/3121,0301,71910.69%2020/1/3150,5353,74410.71%2020/2/298,737-92810.65%2020/3/3151,83822,23611.49%2020/4/3031,02714,3171

3、2.00%2020/5/3131,86614,74212.53%2020/6/3034,6818,43812.75%2020/7/3116,9284,05612.86%2020/8/3135,85313,89713.27%2020/9/3034,6939,55113.53%2020/10/3113,9355,25513.67%2020/11/3021,3431,40613.63%2020/12/3117,200-3,83013.34%2021/1/3151,7001,16513.03%2021/2/2817,1008,36313.29%2021/3/3133,400-18,43812.31%2

4、021/4/3018,500-12,52711.67%2021/5/3119,200-12,66611.03%2021/6/3036,7002,01910.96%资料来源：人民银行，预计社融增速 3 季度企稳在 11%，4 季度由于基数原因、增速回升。我们预计2021 年存量社融同比增速在11%左右，较2020 年增速下降2-2.5个百分点。社融同比增速的预测：随着经济好转，逆周期宽松政策将逐 渐退出，易行长 10 月在金融街论坛指出“在今年抗疫的特殊时期，宏观杠杆率有所上升，明年 GDP 增速回升后，宏观杠杆率将会更稳一些”，即社融增速将与名义GDP 增速匹配，根据 IMF 4 月份的最新预

5、测，中国 2021 年 GDP 同比增速预计为 8.4%，考虑温和通胀，预计社融增速在 11%左右。图表：2021 年社融新增与存量同比增速预测（亿元）201920202021E社融存量同比增速10.6913.3410.91新增社融255,752348,636310,826新增人民币贷款168,835200,300200,300新增外币贷款(1,275)1,4500新增委托贷款(9,396)(3,954)(1,200)新增信托贷款(3,467)(11,000)(11,100)新增未贴现银行承兑汇票(4,757)1,7460企业债券融资32,41644,50032,416非金融企业境内股票融资3

6、,4798,9238,923政府债券47,20483,40059,200存款类金融机构资产支持证券4,0341,1331,133贷款核销10,55112,85612,356来源：人民银行，图表：2021 年存量社融同比增速14.00%13.50%13.00%12.50%12.00%11.50%11.00%10.50%2019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-112019-122020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082

7、020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-1210.00%来源：人民银行，细项来看：6 月社融新增规模超预期主要为信贷支撑。另专项债发行进度跟上，不再拖累社融。监管对信贷额度管控有所放松，预计下半年银行信贷增长不弱。图表：新增社融较去年同期增加情况（亿元）社融人民币贷款委托贷款信托贷款未贴现银行承兑汇票债券融资股票融资政府债券A bs核销2019/1/3115,3748,81810-522,3492,935-2111,6

8、94-329-712019/2/28-2,399-2,559242-711-3,209141-2604,171132-602019/3/3112,5118,1607808721,688-65-2821,596-126-82019/4/30-5,533-2,255284230-1,811-93-271-870-578572019/5/315,8904599398849721,384-1781,1296-862019/6/305,870-508151,5912,338131-105358336682019/7/31-5,510-4,775-36529-1,819755417-1,571163692

9、019/8/31-2,122-9569327936-157115-3,592-232-262019/9/302,0813,2711,4112181172,41617-5,331-612772019/10/31-858-1,672282742-6005094-1,161436-302019/11/303,8101,331351-219697-5883241,963-464-902019/12/311,7191,488895-604-72-1,270302286-6384962020/1/313,744-74467387-2,384-8623205,913944-832020/2/29-928-4

10、39152-503-8583,019330-2,523-535622020/3/3122,23610,806482-5491,4536,385762,932-422-1102020/4/3014,3177,506618-1069345,28853-1,076-4451442020/5/3114,7423,647358-2851,6041,846947,505-471212020/6/308,4382,292343-8673,5012,247385583-6222382020/7/314,0562,135835-6913,432-586622-968-1,0285042020/8/3113,89

11、71,156983421,2842751,0268,729392922020/9/309,5511,559-295-4871,934-1,1158526,339156982020/10/315,2551,193493-251-362377473,060-4291232020/11/301,4061,676928-714-1,196-2,4682472,284577342020/12/31-3,830679757-3,509-3,167-2,1836933,4183123062021/1/311,1653,276117-1,2743,499-216382-5,176-5061142021/2/2

12、88,3636,198256-3964,601-2,588244-8073721072021/3/31-18,438-2,885547-1,770-5,115-6,396585-3,214638-372021/4/30-12,527-3,439366-1,351-2,729-5,728499382376-42021/5/31-12,666-1,202-135-958-1,762-4,215364-4,661335-352021/6/302,0194,13111-195-2,4101641925注：最新月份暂未披露 abs 和核销数据资料来源：人民银行，社融结构分析：融资结构信用分化持续，制造业

13、中长期信贷投放力度不减，城投地产融资收紧。信贷情况：新增信贷规模超预期，供给端略松后，投放规模进一步回升。1、表内信贷情况。6 月新增信贷 2.32 万亿，较去年同期回升 4131 亿元。2、表外信贷情况。表外新增未贴现银行承兑汇票则维持负增。6 月新增未贴现银行承兑汇票-220 亿元，较去年同期下降 2410 亿元，预计有票据贴现多增影响。图表：新增表内外票据融资及企业短贷占比新增社融（亿元）新增票据融资新增未贴现银行承兑汇票合计新增票据+ 未贴现银行承兑汇票占比新增社融新增企业短贷新增企业短贷占比社融2019/1/315,1603,7878,94719.1%5,91912.6%2019/2

14、/281,695-3,103-1,408-14.6%1,48015.3%2019/3/319781,3652,3437.9%3,10110.5%2019/4/301,874-3571,5179.1%-1,417-8.5%2019/5/311,132-7683642.1%1,2097.1%2019/6/30961-1,311-350-1.3%4,40816.8%2019/7/311,284-4,562-3,278-25.5%-2,195-17.1%2019/8/312,4261572,58311.8%-355-1.6%2019/9/301,790-4311,3595.4%2,55010.1%20

15、19/10/31214-1,053-839-9.7%-1,178-13.6%2019/11/306245701,1946.0%1,6438.2%2019/12/312629511,2135.8%350.2%2020/1/313,5961,4034,9999.9%7,69915.2%2020/2/29634-3,961-3,327-38.9%6,54976.6%2020/3/312,0752,8184,8939.4%8,75216.9%2020/4/303,9105774,48714.5%-62-0.2%2020/5/311,5868362,4227.6%1,2113.8%2020/6/30-2

16、,1042,190860.2%4,05111.7%2020/7/31-1,021-1,130-2,151-12.7%-2,421-14.3%2020/8/31-1,6761,441-235-0.7%470.1%2020/9/30-2,6321,503-1,129-3.3%1,2743.7%2020/10/31-1,124-1,089-2,213-15.9%-837-6.0%2020/11/30804-6261780.8%7343.4%2020/12/313,341-2,2161,1256.5%-3,097-18.0%2021/1/31-1,4054,9023,4976.8%5,75511.1%

17、2021/2/28-1,855640-1,215-7.1%2,49714.6%2021/3/31-1,525-2,297-3,822-11.4%3,74811.2%2021/4/302,711-2,1525593.0%-2,147-11.6%2021/5/311,538-9266123.2%-644-3.4%2021/6/302,747-2202,5276.9%3,0918.4%来源：人民银行，表外非标融资情况：新增信托、委贷持续压降。1、6 月新增信托规模保持压降。在信托监管未放松的大背景下，叠加资管新规过渡期到今年底，全年到期信托规模不小，预计 21 年全年信托压降压力不减。6 月新增信托

18、-1047 亿，较去年同期下降 195 亿元。2、新增委贷也保持压降。6 月新增委托贷款-473 亿，较去年同期微增 11 亿。由于去年下半年信托+ 委贷压缩规模较大，虽然今年下半年非标缩降压力不减，但预计对社融的拖累不会那么大。图表：信托未来一年到期规模情况（亿元）10,000.009,000.008,000.007,000.006,000.005,000.004,000.003,000.002,000.001,000.002020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122

19、021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-120.00信托业:未来一年到期规模:合计来源：Wind，政府债：政府债发行进度跟上，预计下半年新增政府债规模在 4.97 万亿，去年下半年新增政府债规模为 4.54 万亿，因而下半年政府债也不会拖累社融。6 月政府债新增 7475 亿，较去年同期微增 25 亿。从债券发行数据跟踪看，6 月国债净增 2635 亿，地方债净增 3928 亿，去年同期分别净增-2836 亿和+4420 亿。债券和股权融资分析。1、6 月企业债融资边际有好

20、转。新增企业债融资 3702 亿，较去年同期上升 16 亿元。2、股票融资规模保持在相对高位：随着经济结构转型，社会融资结构由间接融资转向直接融资大的拐点在缓慢的发生。6 月股票融资新增量 957 亿，较去年同期增加 419 亿。图表：新增社融结构占比新增信贷表外融资直接融资政府债ab s核销2019/1/3177.0%7.3%10.9%3.6%-1.0%0.5%2019/2/2878.0%-37.8%10.3%45.0%-0.1%2.1%2019/3/3166.2%2.8%12.4%11.5%0.9%4.1%2019/4/3050.3%-8.5%25.2%26.5%1.5%1.9%2019/

21、5/3170.3%-8.5%7.5%22.5%2.2%2.3%2019/6/3063.8%-8.1%6.1%26.2%2.3%6.9%2019/7/3161.1%-48.4%27.5%49.9%2.2%1.9%2019/8/3158.3%-4.6%16.6%23.0%1.2%1.6%2019/9/3068.3%-4.5%10.8%15.0%1.1%6.7%2019/10/3162.9%-27.0%25.5%21.6%7.2%4.8%2019/11/3067.1%-5.3%19.3%8.6%3.5%3.2%2019/12/3150.2%-6.9%14.5%17.8%4.1%14.3%2020/1

22、/3170.1%3.6%9.1%15.1%0.9%0.3%2020/2/2985.3%-55.6%49.7%20.9%-6.3%3.0%2020/3/3160.8%4.3%19.5%12.2%-0.3%2.2%2020/4/3055.3%0.1%30.8%10.8%-0.7%1.5%2020/5/3150.1%0.7%10.1%35.7%-0.3%1.3%2020/6/3055.5%2.5%12.2%21.5%0.0%5.9%2020/7/3157.3%-15.6%21.1%32.2%-4.4%4.4%2020/8/3140.7%2.0%13.8%38.5%0.9%1.8%2020/9/305

23、4.4%0.1%7.1%29.2%1.3%5.2%2020/10/3146.6%-15.3%22.9%35.4%1.4%3.9%2020/11/3069.6%-9.6%7.7%18.7%6.0%3.2%2020/12/3160.9%-42.9%9.1%41.6%6.8%19.3%2021/1/3176.0%8.0%9.2%4.7%-0.1%0.5%2021/2/2881.1%-2.3%11.7%5.9%-1.0%2.2%2021/3/3183.2%-12.4%12.9%9.4%1.4%3.2%2021/4/3067.7%-20.0%23.4%20.2%0.9%2.5%2021/5/3174.5

24、%-13.7%-3.2%34.9%1.3%2.0%2021/6/3065.0%-4.7%12.7%20.4%资料来源：人民银行，二、信贷情况：新增好于预期，企业中长期维持高增、票据有冲量6 月新增信贷继续好于市场预期：6 月新增贷款 2.12 万亿元，市场预期1.77 万亿，新增规模较去年同期增加 3100 亿元。信贷余额同比增长 12.3个点，增速环比上升 0.1 个点。图表：贷款余额同比增速（亿，%）40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0002017-012017-022017-032017-042017-052017-062017-07

25、2017-082017-092017-102017-112017-122018-012018-022018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-112018-122019-01014.0013.5013.0012.5012.0011.502019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-112019-122020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-09202

26、0-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-0611.00新增人民币贷款贷款余额同比增速（右轴）资料来源：人民银行，细项来看：企业中长期贷款维持高增；同时票据冲量明显。4-5 月全国性银行反映信贷需求边际有所转弱，但经济发达地区的地方性银行表示融资需求持续旺盛，至 6 月全国性银行反馈需求有所回暖，预计随着专项债发行进度跟上，项目匹配的信贷需求、流动性资金需求有所好转，因而伴随一定的票据高增。我们估计下半年信贷增长会持续好于预期。图表：新增贷款同比增加（亿元）人民币贷款中长期短期票据融资居民企业居民短期居民中长期企业短期企

27、业中长期非银机构2019/1/313,3001,7591,9934,8138828,000-1761,0592,169700-5,2482019/2/28465-2,452-2,3912,470-3,457894-2,463-99472-1,4583,0162019/3/315,7002,7934,5341,0973,1755,0062,2628352,2721,958-2,5062019/4/30-1,600-1,223-2,8021,851-26-2,255-648622-2,154-1,8457322019/5/31300-7531,522-315482-31-2727541,794-1

28、,507-842019/6/30-1,800-242,113-1,986544-7142972241,816-248-1,8092019/7/31-3,900-1,356-2,233-1,104-1,232-3,527-1,073-159-1,160-1,1977462019/8/31-700985793-1,673-474386-6001251,393860-5062019/9/303,1002,4711,0254763,341-4276341,4521,837-562019/10/31-357644-1,328-850-1,426-241-1,284-143-447871,3912019/

29、11/301,4001,2091,756-1,7172711,030-272981,783911-32019/12/316003,747936-3,1331,955-4891111,7458252,002-1,0072020/1/311,1003,122-2,299-1,564-3,5572,800-4,0795221,7802,6001,8192020/2/29199-2,8253,497-1,061-3,4272,959-1,572-1,8555,069-9705652020/3/3111,6003,2036,5011,0979579,8418501335,6513,0707662020/

30、4/306,8002,9482,5422,0361,4116,0921,1872241,3552,724-1,0132020/5/313,0002,7664354544183,235433-1522,781-7182020/6/301,5005,086376-3,0652,1981737331,491-3573,595-6292020/7/31-6733,940589-2,3052,466-3298151,650-2262,290-2,5982020/8/317003,9981,248-4,1021,877-7168461,0314022,967-5292020/9/302,1006,462-

31、589-4,4222419-1,2765,0434582020/10/312852,369-10-1,3381211,073-3514723411,897-7412020/11/304002,041-5651807031,018344360-9091,681-1,3162020/12/311,2001,090-3,6253,079-8241,709-493-432-3,1321,5221632021/1/312,4005,7572,483-5,0016,359-3,1004,4271,957-1,9443,800-4252021/2/284,54310,585-2,2

32、39-2,4895,5547001,8133,742-4,0526,843-1,6062021/3/31-1,2005,158-4,906-3,6001,614-4,500981,501-5,0043,6571,6782021/4/30-2,3001,587-4,000-1,199-1,386-2,011-1,915529-2,0851,0581,1282021/5/31200987-2,430-48-811-402-575-236-1,8551,2231,2842021/6/303,100-174-8604,851-1,1305,313100-1,193-9601,019-1,116资料来源

33、：人民银行，具体信贷结构情况：企业中长期信贷，预计制造业中长期信贷高增的趋势能够维持。票据高增或反映信贷额度边际有所增加，同时企业配套的流动性资金需求有所上升。1、居民按揭增量低于去年同期，居民短贷则有所好转。银行房贷额度维持紧张。居民短贷好于上月预计主要为6.18 电商节日支撑。6 月居民短贷、按揭贷款净新增分别为 3500 亿、 5156 亿元，较去年同期变动+100 亿元、-1193 亿元。2、预计制造业中长期贷款高增维持。6 月企业中长期贷款新增 8367 亿，较去年同期增加 1019 亿。3、企业短贷新增规模环比有所回升、票据冲量，合计企业短期流贷需求好于上月。企业短期贷款、票据融资

34、分别新增 3091 亿、 2747 亿，增量较去年同期变动-960 亿、+4851 亿元。4、非银信贷 6 月新增-1906 亿，较去年同期减少 1116 亿元。图表：新增贷款结构占比中长期短期票据融资居民企业居民短期居民中长期企业短期企业中长期非银机构2019/1/3164.9%27.4%16.0%30.6%79.9%9.1%21.6%18.3%43.3%-10.5%2019/2/2883.0%-16.4%19.1%-8.0%94.2%-33.1%25.1%16.7%57.9%13.8%2019/3/3166.1%43.8%5.8%52.7%63.1%25.4%27.2%18.3%38.9%

35、-16.1%2019/4/3068.5%-3.2%18.4%51.5%34.0%10.7%40.8%-13.9%27.7%13.9%2019/5/3161.0%26.8%9.6%56.1%44.3%16.5%39.6%10.2%21.4%0.5%2019/6/3051.9%42.6%5.8%45.9%54.8%16.1%29.3%26.6%22.6%-1.0%2019/7/3176.4%-14.2%12.1%48.2%28.1%6.6%41.7%-20.7%34.7%22.0%2019/8/3172.9%13.6%20.0%54.0%53.8%16.5%37.5%-2.9%35.4%-7.8%

36、2019/9/3062.6%31.1%10.6%44.7%59.8%16.0%29.2%15.1%33.4%-3.9%2019/10/3187.8%-8.4%3.2%63.7%19.1%9.4%54.2%-17.8%33.5%17.0%2019/11/3064.0%27.2%4.5%49.1%48.9%15.4%33.7%11.8%30.3%2.0%2019/12/3177.2%14.6%2.3%56.7%37.2%14.3%42.3%0.3%34.9%4.5%2020/1/3172.1%19.6%10.8%19.0%85.6%-3.4%22.4%23.1%49.7%-4.7%2020/2/2

37、950.0%22.6%7.0%-45.6%124.8%-49.7%4.1%72.3%45.9%19.7%2020/3/3150.5%48.8%7.3%34.6%71.9%18.0%16.6%30.7%33.8%-6.8%2020/4/3058.4%13.0%23.0%39.2%56.3%13.4%25.8%-0.4%32.6%2.4%2020/5/3167.3%24.3%10.7%47.6%57.2%16.1%31.5%8.2%35.8%-4.5%2020/6/3075.7%41.2%-11.6%54.2%51.3%18.8%35.1%22.4%40.6%-4.4%2020/7/31121.2

38、%-9.2%-10.3%76.3%26.6%15.2%61.1%-24.4%60.1%-2.7%2020/8/31100.2%22.6%-13.1%65.7%45.3%22.2%43.5%0.4%56.7%-11.5%2020/9/3089.7%24.6%-13.9%50.6%49.8%17.9%33.5%6.7%56.2%-1.1%2020/10/31118.5%-8.2%-16.3%62.8%33.9%3.9%58.8%-12.1%59.6%5.5%2020/11/3076.5%22.5%5.6%52.7%54.6%17.4%35.3%5.1%41.2%-7.3%2020/12/3178.

39、5%-15.5%26.5%44.7%47.2%9.1%34.9%-24.6%43.7%5.3%2021/1/3183.4%25.2%-3.9%35.5%71.2%9.2%26.4%16.1%57.0%-5.6%2021/2/28111.1%-1.4%-13.6%10.4%88.2%-19.8%30.2%18.4%80.9%1.3%2021/3/3171.6%32.9%-5.6%42.0%58.6%19.2%22.9%13.7%48.7%-1.0%2021/4/3078.4%-12.1%18.4%35.9%51.4%2.5%33.5%-14.6%44.9%10.4%2021/5/3173.0%7

40、.7%10.3%41.5%53.7%12.0%29.5%-4.3%43.5%4.2%2021/6/3063.8%31.1%13.0%41.0%68.8%16.5%24.3%14.6%39.5%-9.0%资料来源：人民银行，图表：剔除非银和票据的新增贷款比去年同期增加（亿元）剔除非银剔除非银和票据剔除非银比去年同期剔除非银和票据比去年同期2019/1/3135,68630,5268,5483,7352019/2/287,6375,942-2,551-5,0212019/3/3119,61418,6368,2067,1092019/4/308,7836,909-2,332-4,1832019/5/

41、3111,74210,6103846992019/6/3016,76115,80091,9952019/7/318,2726,988-4,646-3,5422019/8/3113,04510,619-1941,4792019/9/3017,55915,7693,1563,1092019/10/315,4905,276-1,748-8982019/11/3013,62613,0021,4033,1202019/12/3110,88910,6271,6074,7402020/1/3134,96731,371-7198452020/2/297,2716,637-3666952020/3/3130,4

42、4828,37310,8349,7372020/4/3016,59612,6867,8135,7772020/5/3115,46013,8743,7183,2642020/6/3018,89020,9942,1295,1942020/7/3110,19711,2181,9254,2302020/8/3114,27415,9501,2295,3312020/9/3019,20121,8331,6426,0642020/10/316,5167,6401,0262,3642020/11/3015,34214,5381,7161,5362020/12/3111,9268,5851,037-2,0422

43、021/1/3137,79239,1972,8257,8262021/2/2813,42015,2756,1498,6382021/3/3127,57029,095-2,8787222021/4/3013,16810,457-3,428-2,2292021/5/3114,37612,838-1,084-1,0362021/6/3023,10620,3594,216-635注：非银贷款包含非银同业拆借，不稳定性较大，因而剔除非银来看票据对新增信贷的贡献来源：人民银行，图表：总贷款与制造业中长期贷款同比增速情况45.040.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.0201820

44、191Q202Q203Q2020201Q21金融机构各项贷款同比制造业中长期贷款同比增速来源：公司财报，三 M2-M1 同比增速走阔与信用边际扩张匹配、M2 同比增速环比走高：6 月M0、M1、M2 分别同比增长 6.2%、5.5%、8.6%、较上月同比增速变动+0.6、-0.6、+0.3个百分点。M1 增速或与地产销售关联性更大。图表：M2 及 M1 同比增速图表：M2 与 M1 增速差25.0020.0015.0010.005.0010.005.002017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042

45、019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-040.00-5.000.00-10.00M2M1-15.002017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-04M2增速-M1增速来源：人民银行，来源：人民银行，存款同比增速回升。6 月新增存款 3.86 万亿，较去年同期增加 9600 亿；存量同比 9.2%，环比持平上升 0.3 个点。1

46、、季末冲量，6 月居民净增存款好于上月。新增居民存款 2.2 万亿元，同比微增 551 亿元。2、企业新增存款 2.47 万亿元，同比增 1 万亿元。预计部分有信贷高增、票据冲量，银行保证金多增的原因。3、财政存款净增-4002 亿，较去年同期增加 2100 亿元，财政支出力度边际有所提升。4、非银存款净增-2898亿元，较去年同期增加 2670 亿。图表：存款余额同比增速（亿，%）50,00012.0040,00011.0030,00020,00010,0000(10,000)10.009.002018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-11

47、2018-122019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-112019-122020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-068.007.002017-012017-022017-032017-042017-052017-062017-072017-082017-092017-102017-

48、112017-122018-012018-022018-032018-04(20,000)6.00新增人民币存款存款余额同比增速（右轴）资料来源：人民银行，图表：新增存款较去年同期增加（亿元）人民币存款居民企业财政存款非银2019/1/31-5,90029,924-4,132-4,472-20,9792019/2/2816,111-15,40012,0008,5293,6322019/3/312,1003,4767,560-2,126-7,2242019/4/30-2,7466,952-7,194-1,837-8332019/5/31-8002511,042987-1,7352019/6/30

49、1,7003976,1541,868-6,2612019/7/31-3,8801,900-7,712-1,2544,7912019/8/317,100-749-347-7559,5092019/9/30-1,7092,1491,804-3,5531,3282019/10/31-1,163-2,665-989-2683,5692019/11/303,593-4,9401,3214,1923,8542019/12/315,0793,7051,793-4142,2492020/1/31-3,9003,800-12,189-1,33510,7802020/2/29-2,900-14,50014,840

50、-3,034-1,8332020/3/3124,40014,70012,621-425-2,9892020/4/3010,094-1,74813,438-4,8185,7862020/5/3110,9002,4026,8738,251-7,1452020/6/306,30010,446-1,183-17/31-5,617-6,163-1,600-3,2194,6002020/8/311,4001,2591,6995,244-9,9102020/9/308,6074,0045,201-1,2914,9932020/10/31-6,343-3,557-1,6493,499

51、-5,9472020/11/307,9003,868-1735941,5372020/12/31-8,0881,489-5,0781,246-272021/1/316,900-27,60025,5847,698-6,8212021/2/281,30033,800-27,040-8,68711,1762021/3/31-5,300-4,100-14,5702,49911,0582021/4/30-19,952-7,704-15,2565,248-3,3032021/5/312,500-3,747-9,294-3,84314,5662021/6/309,60055110,2762,1002,670资料来源：人民银行，四、银行投资建议