电动汽车：消费者是否受到了冲击

1、Global Research13 March 2019EquitiesGlobal AutosAutomobilesGlobalElectric Cars: Are Consumers Thunderstruck Yet?Will EVs face a demand issue? Overall no, third UBS Evidence Lab survey shows While global sales of electric vehicles (EV) keep growing fast (+67% y/y in 2018), investors are increasingly

2、concerned that soaring supply of new EV models outpaces demand growth in the next few years, leading to sunk investments and additional margin pressure. The third wave of the UBS Evidence Lab EV survey (10k respondents in the largest auto markets) doesnt support these worries. The propensity to go a

3、ll- electric keeps increasing: 33% consider buying a battery-electric car (BEV), up 5%-pts y/y, with Chinese consumers in the lead while EU consumers are lagging behind.Competitive landscape: Tesla extends its lead, incumbent OEMs drop in ranking Tesla is clearly seen as technology leader and gaps a

4、way as the BEV brand most consumers consider buying (37%), a trend the Model 3 helped to achieve. However, recent price cuts by Tesla show that desire doesnt always convert into a purchase, particularly for a premium brand. The negative momentum of incumbent (premium) brands shows the necessity to a

5、ccelerate their BEV efforts. Only a few incumbents are still preferred by consumers over Tesla in a direct comparison: Audi, Mercedes and BMW score best, with Audi having the busiest BEV launch calendar of the three.China: 71% consider buying BEV; local incumbents in solid shapeIn China, the worlds

6、largest EV market, Tesla ranks second to BYD. New entrant NIO comes in 11th after other local incumbent brands BAIC and Geely. We remain bullish on Chinese EV market growth and (once again) raise our near-term EV sales forecast in spite of shrinking EV subsidies, expecting a positive mix shift away

7、from budget EVs.Stocks: VWs aggressive EV strategy potentially wins, BMW needs to accelerate Our global OEM matrix categorizes four types of companies (see figure below), depending on their EV strategy and their exposure to BEV-skewed markets and segments. Volkswagen has made the biggest EV commitme

8、nt among incumbents, and we see it as a potential key winner in Europe and China. BMW, on the other hand, is at risk of losing share to competition given its moderate EV launch calendar.Risk of sunk BEV investmentsondaNissanvestmentsGMRenaultrdGACSAICGeelyVWToyotaTeslaDaimlerLikely winnersNo need to

9、 rush into BEVsFCAKiaHHyundaiSubaruRisk of losing out to competitionBMWBrillianceGWMPSAFoBEV inMazdaFigure 1: Which OEM is best positioned to win, and which is at risk?Patrick Hummel, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:patrick.hummel patrick.hummel+41-44-239 79 23David LesneAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:david.l

10、esne david.lesne+44-20-7567 5815Julian Radlinger, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:julian.radlinger julian.radlinger+44-20-7568 1171Paul GongAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:paul.gong paul.gong+852-2971 7868Colin Langan, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:colin.langan colin.langan+1-212-713 9949Kohei TakahashiAnalyst H

11、YPERLINK mailto:kohei.takahashi kohei.takahashi+81-3-5208 6172Eugene JungAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:eugene.jung eugene.jung+82 2 3702 8801Sonal GuptaAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:sonal.gupta sonal.gupta+91-22-6155 6063Benedikt Baumann Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:benedikt.baumann benedikt.baumannExpo

12、sure to BEV markets+41-44-239 1398Source: UBS HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Europe SE. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE36. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result

13、, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Global AutosUBS Research THESIS MAP MOST FAVOUREDLEAST FAVOUREDVW, GM, ToyotaB

14、MW, Mazda, SubaruPIVOTAL QUESTIONSQ: Is there a risk that BEV supply outpaces demand?No. The propensity to buy a BEV has increased 500bps y/y to 33% of all consumers surveyed, withChina showing the strongest momentum. Price and range expectations of consumers are finally met by real cars (rather tha

15、n concepts), and the regulatory environment remains supportive. HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 LinkQ: Are incumbent brands catching up with Tesla?Not yet. Tesla has gapped away even further from incumbents as most favoured / best technology BEV brand, the survey shows. However, some premium incumbent brands

16、 like Audi, Mercedes and BMW are preferred vs. Tesla in a face-to-face competition, but they lack product so far. Chinese new entrant brands are behind most incumbents. HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 LinkQ: Which are the OEMs best and worst prepared for the transition to BEVs?OEMs with strong survey results

17、 that are exposed to the regions / segments with highest EV growth and the toughest CO2 regulation should pursue the most aggressive EV strategy as this should lead to the best financial outcome. VW, GM, and Toyota screen best while BMW is lagging behind. HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 LinkWHATS PRICED IN?I

18、nvestors are sceptical about EVs because of (1) high investments upfront; (2) uncertain demand and (3) the likely margin-dilutive impact, and they worry that incumbent OEMs might not master the transition. All of the above results in depressed OEM valuation multiples (30% below mid-cycle).UBS VIEWWe

19、 think demand concerns are overdone as the EV train is beyond the point of no return on dramatically improving cost of the technology and regulation that favors EVs in key markets. OEMs investing heavily in EV have the potential to (1) win market share over the next few years, (2) benefit from bette

20、r economies of scale and (3) achieve the lowest CO2 compliance costs in the industry and therefore less margin dilution. While premium OEMs need to accelerate their EV efforts to catch up with Tesla (as the survey shows), leading volume brands like VW are well positioned to win.EVIDENCEUBS Evidence

21、Lab ran the third wave of its flagship consumer survey about electric cars in six of the largest auto markets globally, with 10k consumers participating. Survey results underscore (1) the rising popularity of all-electric cars and (2) Teslas increasing lead over incumbent OEM brands.Global OEM cover

22、age and ratingsRegionOEMPricePTSELLNEUTRALBUYUpsidePE 19ECommentEUBMW73764%7.6xModerate BEV strategy; risk of losing shareDaimler51546%7.1xAccelerating EV launches; current product not cutting edgeFCA13149%5.3xNo need to be amongst early EV movers, but has CO2 issue in EUPSA22221%7.5xFocus on PHEV a

23、nd BEV on flexible architecture, relatively late in BEVRenault6058-3%4.8xEarly mover with scale benefits in BEV from Nissan allianceVW14621044%5.2xMost aggressive incumbent globally in BEVUSFord8.610.016%6xFocused on PHEV but also increasing BEV activityGM38.648.024%5.6xEarly mover with the Bolt, ne

24、xt-gen BEV platform in 2021Tesla291220-24%nmGlobal BEV pure play with execution issues and declining ASPJapanHonda3,0133,50016%7.5xAmongst better-known Japanese EV brandsMazda1,2251,100-10%10.4xInvests in next-gen ICE rather than EVNissan922800-13%7.7xEarly EV player, just launched next-gen Leaf; sc

25、ale benefits from Renault allianceSubaru2,6592,200-17%13.5xNot investing in BEV, could lose differentiation and margin potential in EV worldToyota6,5786,7002%9.9xWorld leader in HEV, strong green brand imageChinaBrilliance7.310.037%3.6xBMW JV biggest source of income; will be global hub for iX3Geely

26、13.917.828%7.5xWell-known incumbent EV brand, scale benefits from Volvos EV strategyNio6.67.06%-Best-known EV start-up brand in China, disappointed recently on outlookSAIC26.732.923%8.1xBEV exposure through JVs (VW most aggressive), Roewe off to good startKoreaHyundai121,000155,00028%5.9xKona Electr

27、ic one of best mass-market EV launches so farKia33,90041,00021%6.2xKia Niro one of the best mass-market EV launches so farSource: UBS estimatesOUR THESIS IN PICTURESPropensity to buy BEVs keeps rising sharply72%73%69%37%33%35% 33%28%24%26%27%24%42%46%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Propensity to buy a BEV

28、 now exceeds diesel, and is almost on a par with plug-in hybrids, which are stalling(How likely is the vehicle you purchase going to be )GasolineBEVHybridPHEVDiesel 2016 2017 2018Tesla gaps away as most preferred BEV brand60% Tesla extends relative lead vs. incumbents37%27%25%25%22%17%17%16%14%13%50

29、%40%30%20%10%0% 2016201720182018 EV sales above expectations; 17% share in 2025E110100908070605040302010020122014201620182020E2022E2024EGasoline48V/mild hybrid (gas)DieselHEVPHEVBEV37% of BEV purchase intenders would consider buying a Tesla, and 21% quote Tesla as their top choice. The gap vs compet

30、itor brands has increased substantially y/y(From which brands would you consider buying a BEV?)EV sales in 2018 have beaten our expectations by 0.2m units, driven by China and US. We confirm our forecast of 17m annual EV sales (17% of global car sales) in 2025BEV winner?OverallGlobal OEM coverage EV

31、 heatmap (summarized)BEV strategyWhat they shouldWhat theydo (UBSe)actually doUBS Evidence LabBEV imageEUUSBMWDaimler FCA PSARenault VWFord GMTeslaaggressiveaggressivemoderateaggressivemoderateaggressive moderate aggressive moderate moderateaggressivemoderatemoderate aggressive aggressive moderate a

32、ggressiveaggressiveJapanHondamoderatemoderateMazdamoderatemoderateNissanmoderatemoderateSubarumoderatemoderateToyotamoderatemoderateChinaBrillianceaggressivemoderateGACGeelyaggressivemoderateNioSAICaggressiveaggressiveKoreaHyundaimoderatemoderateSources for exhibits above: UBS Evidence Lab, UBS esti

33、matesCombining the regional/segmental BEV demand outlook, BEV brand strength and strategies chosen by OEMs, Volkswagen, Toyota, Tesla (even though Sell-rated) and GM screen as likely relative winnersGlobal AutosUBS ResearchPIVOTAL QUESTIONS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 return Q: Is there a risk that BEV s

34、upply outpaces demand?UBS VIEWNo. The propensity to buy a BEV has increased 500bps y/y to 33% of all consumers surveyed, with China showing the strongest momentum. However, European consumers are laggards, which we think will change in the next two years as mass-market BEVs that meet price and range

35、 expectations of consumers will be launched. On a global basis, consumers are now more likely to consider buying a BEV than they are likely to consider buying a diesel car, and for the first time, the share of BEV purchase intenders is now on par with plug-in hybrids (PHEV).EVIDENCEThe UBS Evidence

36、Lab consumer survey underpins that consumers not only are more likely to buy a BEV than in previous surveys, but also that their awareness about EV brands and models is increasing. Furthermore, price and range expectations can finally be met by upcoming BEV launches.WHATS PRICED IN?While it is diffi

37、cult to break down investor concerns about BEVs into volume, margin dilution and disruption from competition, our conversations show that an increasing number of investors are concerned that some OEMs are moving faster than the demand momentum.Every third consumer now considers buying a BEVThe popul

38、arity of battery-electric vehicles (BEV), ie, cars with an all-electric drivetrain and no combustion engine, keeps increasing. In the latest UBS Evidence Lab consumer survey about electric cars, with 9,790 respondents in six of the largest car markets (US, China, Japan, Germany, UK and Korea), the s

39、hare of people consider buying a BEV (Are you likely to consider buying a BEV as your next vehicle?) has increased by 500bps over last years survey to 33%. Other powertrains, including plug-in hybrids (PHEV), have lost popularity. For the first time, BEV have reached a level roughly on par with PHEV

40、, and now clearly outperform diesel cars.9,790 consumers in six of the largest car markets globally surveyed by UBS Evidence LabFigure 2: Likelihood of purchase consideration by vehicle type80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%72% 73%69%37%33%35%33%28%27%24%26%24%42%46%GasolineBEVHybrid201620172018PHEVDieselSo

41、urce: UBS Evidence Lab Note: 2017 data for hybrid not availableOn a regional basis, there has been a positive trend in China, Korea, Japan and Germany. Only the US and UK momentum has stalled compared to the last survey. In the US, this can be explained by the fading of EV tax credits (phase-out of

42、the federal tax credit once OEMs reach their volume threshold).Figure 3: Are you likely to consider buying a BEV? (%, by region)China and other Asia are showing strongest positive momentum, but Germany is also warming upGermanyUKUSAKoreaChinaJapan71%40%17%20%18%807060504030201002016201831%Source: UB

43、S Evidence LabThe propensity to buy an electric car remains positively correlated with household income. From $200k annual household income, the share of consumers likely to buy a BEV exceeds 50%, whereas below $50k household income, only 10% of consumers are likely to go electric. Translating this

44、into the BEV segments that are likely to grow fastest, premium cars are likely to outperform the mass segment. Within the mass segment, the higher-end part (vehicle prices between 20-40k) looks more likely to transition to BEV than the budget segment. This looks well synchronised with the EV line-up

45、 for the next few years, which has a skew towards premium and higher-end mass nameplates.Wealthier people are more likely to go electric premium brands better hurry up with their productFigure 4: Propensity to buy a BEV by household income in $33%32%45%38%59%55%73%68%11%8%15%18%16%19%56%19%54%53%29%

46、37%13%23%64%25%73%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%16%19%11% 11% 7%20%10%0%LikelyNot sure yetUnlikelySource: UBS Evidence LabThe word-of-mouth effect probably positively influences the number of consumers opening up to the idea of buying an electric car. 78% of existing BEV owners that were surveyed are lik

47、ely to recommend buying an EV to a friend (scores 8-10 on a scale from 0 to 10). Only 2% are unlikely to recommend a BEV (scores 0-2). In comparison, PHEV owners are equally satisfied with their cars. Compared to prior years, the satisfaction rate of BEV owners has increased.BEV owners are happy peo

48、pleFigure 5: Are you likely to recommend buying a BEV to a friend (BEV owners, time series)?Figure 6: Are you likely to recommend buying a BEV/PHEV/HEV to a friend?100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%20162%40%57%2017LikelyUnsureUnlikely2018100%2%29%2%21%69%78%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2%1%68%78%78%3

49、1%22%21%All electricPHEVHEV LikelyUnsureUnlikelySource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabFigure 7: Areas of (dis-)satisfaction of BEV owners13% 3%84%Performance13% 4%83%Costs of running the car17% 3%81%Fit and finish17%70%13%Range22%68%9%Battery life17%66%17%Access to charging22%64%14%Charge

50、times24%64%12%Price0%20%40%60%80%100%SatisfiedNeitherDissatisfiedSource: UBS Evidence LabWhat drives BEV demand, and what are the key issues?Cost and safety continue to play key roles in the decision-making process for a new car purchase, and the relevance to consumers is on a stable high level over

51、 time. 66% of respondents do a simple purchase price comparison between different models. But 64% also claim they compare the total cost of ownership (TCO) including maintenance and fuel / energy costs. On a TCO basis, EVs usually score much better vs. ICE cars than on a simple sticker price compari

52、son.Figure 8: Key factors taken into account for a new vehicle purchaseThe vehicle price remains the #1 decision-making factor66%64%39%37%33%21%18%2018201720166%Compare purchase priceCost of ownershipSales promotion and special offersRecommendation from friendsBuy same brand againRecommendation from

53、 mediaRecommendation from salesOtherSource: UBS Evidence LabFor those likely to consider buying a BEV, the priorities are not much different, as the chart below shows. Priorities of consumers are also very stable over time.Figure 9: Most important factors when purchasing a BEV20172018Purchase price

54、Safety and reliability Cost of running the carEnergy usage/efficiency of car Design and appearanceEngine performance/noise level Longevity of the vehicle Brand reputation Technological capability Engine emissions regulation Country of manufacturing Expected depreciationOver-the-air upgrades67%65%51%

55、47%43%39%37%35%32%24%15%13%0%70%65%53%48%44%40%39%34%32%26%16%14%6%Source: UBS Evidence LabThe main reasons not to buy an EV are still the high purchase price (54%), access to charging stations (53%) and the limited range per charge (49%). There has not been any shift over the years among these top-

56、3 factors.Figure 10: BEV pushbacks why would you not want to buy a BEV?What holds consumers back from going electric? Price, range, chargingHigh purchase price Limited plug-in stations Limited range per chargeBattery life Lengthy charge times Technology too new Lack of choicesNot safe or reliable Go

57、vernment incentives Design of vehicleOther48%48%47%42%38%26%16%9%8%8%3%2017201854%53%49%46%40%25%15%10%9%8%4%Source: UBS Evidence LabUnsurprisingly, a lower price and a longer battery life are the key factors that would make consumers change their stance about EVs. The upcoming EV launches will brin

58、g significant progress in both aspects. The VW ID Neo is likely to set new benchmarks in terms of range as a function of vehicle price. Hence, we are confident that more and more consumers will be ready to jump as new launches give them more oomph for the buck.but strong progress is being made on th

59、ese key factorsFigure 11: Factors that most persuade for BEV purchaseFigure 12: Range (km) vs. vehicle retail price ( )Longer battery life 51% Lower purchase price 50% Better incentives 27% More attractive design 10%Lower risk of driving bans 5%20172018 66%66%50%19%14%600VW NEO LR (2019)VW NEO (2019

60、)VW NEO SR (2019)55050045040035030025020015010020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000Source: UBS Evidence LabSource: Company information, UBS estimatesIn terms of price expectations, the shrinking price premium of electric cars vs. an equivalent ICE car should clearly boost demand. 59% are prepared to pay