中国调味品：品尝美味的方法

1、March 31, 2019 06:00 AM GMTChina SeasoningsMarch 31, 2019 06:00 AM GMTSavortheFlavorisin&.eenetWdltt.nWn MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniesinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,shouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.shouldc

2、onsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesnotwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmayno

3、tbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionson communicationswithasubjectpublicandsecuritiesheldbyaanalystaccount.ContributorsMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Leaf LiuEquity Analyst+852 3963-1905 HYPERLINK mailto:Leaf.Liu Leaf.LiuMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Lillian EquityAnalyst+852 2848-6502 HYPERLINK mailto:Lilli

4、an.Lou Lillian.LouChina SeasoningsSavortheFlavorisin&.eenetWdltt.nWn Premiumizationandproducttiontodrivemulti-yeargrowth:Seasoning isthefastestgrowingcategoryinthe Industry ViewIn-Linecompareswithaglobalaverageof3.6xandaChinastaplesof1.5x,whileweinitiateatEWonAngelasnear-termpressureislikelytoweigho

5、nitsvaluation.food&beveragesectorsunderourcoverage.thinktheseasoning segmentwillmaintainsustainablegrowthgivenlowper-capitasumptionandresilientdemandfromthecateringchannel.esti- matethatseasoningindustrysaleswillgrow7%annuallyin2018-21, to Rmb443bn, with soy sauce sales rising 6% annually over perio

6、d,drivenbyhigherdemandlightsoysauceandconsumption upgrades.believeleadingplayerswillacceleratemarketsharegainlev- eragingtheirbrandequityandscaleadvantage,ridingconsumption upgradetrend.expectHaitianandJonjee,thetwolargestplayers totakeanaggregatedvolumeshareof33%insoysaucemarketby 2023 vs. 22% in O

7、ur channel feedback also indicates that enhancedchannelpenetrationandeffectivepromotionbyplayersin1Q19todriveahighteens%growth.alsoexpectAngel togainshareinoverseasmarketdrivenbycapacityexpansion and enhanced marketinginvestment.likeHaitianforitsleadership,highlyvisibleearningsgrowth andsuperiorretu

8、rns,whileweremainEWasvaluationlooksfairthestocktradingat37x2020eP/E.initiateonJonjeeonOWitsbetterpositioninthepremiumsegment,roomnationalsion,productdiversification,andmarginimprovementpotential.higherearningsgrowthin2019-21comparedwithHaitiandriveare-rating;thestockiscurrentlytradingata9%discountto

9、 Haitianon2019P/Eversusanaveragepremiumof2%since2014.Ournumbers:OurpricetargetJonjeeimpliesa2020PEGof1.5x, inviewofourestimated25%earningsCAGR.OurpricetargetHaitianimpliesa2020PEGof1.9xgivenitssustainablegrowth.Potentialcatalystsincludepricehikes,marketconsolidation,product launches, and catering gr

10、owth acceleration. includeaconsumptionslowdown,foodsafetyissues,andrawmate- rial costhikes.Exhibit 1:CompanyMarket CapCompanyMarket CapCurr.Current PriceRatingPTPTPTUS$BnNewOldNewOldChg %Upside %Jonjee4.4Rmb36.6OW-42-15%Haitian33.1Rmb86.7EWEW906636%4%Angel3.3Rmb27.1EW-258%YeastSource: Thomson Reuter

11、s, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Closing share prices as of March 29, 2019.Exhibit 2:CompanyCompanyPT ImpliedPT impliedEarnings GrowthEarnings GrowthROEP/EP/EPEG19E20E2019EJonjee2019: 40 x2019: 46x2019: 2.0 xOverall: 20%Overall:27%2020: 32x2020: 36x 2020: 1.5x Seasonings:23%Haitian2019: 45x2019: 46

12、x 2019: 2.3x20%Seasonings: 25%21%18%32%Angel2019: 23x2019: 21x 2019:1.3xYeast2020: 19x2020: 16x 2020: 1.0 x14%19%20%2020:37x2020: 38x 2020:1.9xSource: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Closing share prices as of March 29, 2019.ContentsOrder ofPreferenceChartsInvestmentSummaryGlobal Ben

13、chmarksSeasoningIndustryPremiumizationand Category Expansion Are Long-term Drivers19IndustryUpstreamtoChinasBakerySeasoningIndustries21Comparing Jonjee andHaitian28 Angel Yeast: Where It Stands in the CycleJonjee: Benefiting from Premiumization Penetration; Initiate atRiskReward:Jonjee(600872.SS,PTR

14、mb42)Jonjee: FinancialSummaryJonjee:ValuationJonjee: EarningsOutlookJonjee: Bull/Bear CaseDiscussionJonjee:5ForcesAnalysisJonjee:InvestmentPositivesandConcernsJonjee: CompanyBackgroundFoshan Haitian: Sustainable Growth on aStrong FoundationRiskReward:FoshanHaitian(603288.SS,Rmb90)Foshan Haitian: Fin

15、ancialSummaryFoshanHaitian:EstimateRevisionsandValuationFoshanHaitian:5ForcesAnalysisAngel Positioned Long-termGains; Initiate atEWRiskReward:Angel(600298.SS,Rmb25)Angel FinancialSummaryAngel ValuationAngel EarningsOutlookAngelBull/BearCaseDiscussionAngel5ForcesAnalysisAngelInvestmentPositivesandCon

16、cernsAngel CompanyBackground56 Valuation ComparablesOrder of PreferenceExhibit 3:China seasonings: Order of preferenceJonjeeFoshan HaitianAngel Yeast600872.SS603288.SS600298.SSRatingOWEWEWTrading CurrencyCNYCNYCNYPrice Target42.0090.0025.00Current Price36.5886.7027.06Upside /(Downside) %15%4%-8%Mark

17、et Cap (US$ mn)4,39533,1333,260Average Daily Traded Vol (US$mn)383639Street View: RatingsBuy/Overweight95%76%85%Hold/Equal-weight5%16%8%Sell/Underweight0%8%8%Bull Case Value50.00110.0034.00Upside %37%27%26%Bear Case Value29.0067.0019.00Downside %-21%-23%-30%Risk/Reward Skew1.771.180.86Morgan Stanley

18、 EstimatesFY19eCNYCNYCNYSales4,679 e19,066 e7,663 eNet Profit726 e5,244 e975 eEPS0.91 e1.94 e1.18 e2019 P/E404523PT Implied P/E464621FY20eSales5,499 e22,226 e8,599 eNet Profit920 e6,327 e1,159 eEPS1.15 e2.34 e1.41 e2020 P/E323719PT Implied P/E363816FY19 MSe vs. Consensus MeanSales-3%-4%-1%Net Profit

19、-1%1%-8%EPS-1%1%-8%FY20e MSe vs. Consensus MeanSales-5%-3%-4%Net Profit-1%3%-8%EPS-1%3%-8%Source: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Share prices in this report are as of the market close on March 29, 2019, unless otherwise indicated.Key ChartsExhibit 4:Seasoning industry model is the f

20、astest growth category under our China F&B coverageExhibit 5:Market share of seasoning companies by value (2018)8%7%6%6%6%6%5%5%4%7%2018-23E Retail Value CAGR6.6%4.0%3.9%3.6%CR5: 21.4%Haitian6%6%5%5%4%4%3%eaonngsairy IntantNorscesdMeaftDrnkIntantNdes78.6%3.3%Lee Kum Kee Nestle Laoganma Jonjee Others

21、Source:ChinaCondimentIndustryAssociation,MorganStanleyResearch.E=MorganStanleyResearch estimatesSource: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 6:SoysaucemarketsharedynamicsExhibit 7:Sales and recurring earnings growth of seasoning companies, 2019-21HaitianJonjeeAngelHaitianJonjeeHaitianJonjee26

22、.2%24.6%22.9%21.2%19.5%17.9%12.9 14.0%15.1% 15.5% 14.9% 15.5% 16.3%4.2% 4.6% 5.0% 5.4% 5.7%2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8%20.2%20.2%18.0%18.4%18.0%16.9%16.9%14%13%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023ESource: CEIC, China Condiment Industry AssociationSalesCAGRC

23、oresalesCAGREarningsCAGRSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 8:PremiumizationandmixupgradestodriveseasoningASPgrowthExhibit 9:2019 P/E versus 2018-20 EPS growth9.08.07.06.05.04.0Seasoning ASP (Rmb/kg)HaitianEPS CAGR 2018-2020Fuling ZhacaiJonjeeHaitianAngel YeastAjinomotoHen

24、gshunKikkomanConagraKewpieMcCormickQianhe Condiment252015105P/E & EPS Growth3.020152016201720182019E2020E2021E-101520253035404550P/E 2019ESource:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.E=MorganStanleyResearchestimatesSource: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesIn

25、vestment SummaryWe expand our China seasoning industry coverage by initiating on Jonjee, the second-largest listed seasoning player in China, at Overweight. We also initiate on Angel Yeast, the largest domestic supplier of ingredients to the bakery and seasoning industries, at Equal-weight. We maint

26、ain our EW on Haitian due to fair valuation.We expand our China seasoning industry coverage by initiating on Jonjee, the second-largest listed seasoning player in China, at Overweight. We also initiate on Angel Yeast, the largest domestic supplier of ingredients to the bakery and seasoning industrie

27、s, at Equal-weight. We maintain our EW on Haitian due to fair valuation.believeseasoningplayersJonjeeandHaitianarepositioned in lightof:Theirdefensivenessandsteadygrowth,drivenpremiumization and productdiversificationAccelerating market consolidation as the leading playersleveragetheirbrandandscalea

28、dvantagescapture the consumption upgradetrendHighlyvisiblemarginimprovementsfrommixupgrades and operatingleverageOur EW rating on Angel is due to short-term margin pressure and relatively fair valuation. positive on Angels dominant market position in China and strategic overseas capacity allocation

29、to drive long- term growth.Chinasseasoningindustryisstillinagrowthphase,drivenbylow per-capitaconsumptionandincreasingdemandfromthechannel.estimateindustrysaleswillriseataCAGRof7%,Rmb443bnby2021,drivenbyhigherpenetration,anddiversification.Productupgrades,brandloyaltyandtionwillalsoboostindustryprof

30、itability.Multipleseasoningplayers raisedpricesin4Q18,demonstratingthepremiumizationtrend.expecttheupwardASPtrendtocontinue.Whilethemarkethasbeenconcernedabouta2H18slowdownincateringmarket,whichisthelargestsourceofdownstreamdemand, we think seasoning industry growth will be more resilient overallcat

31、eringgrowthduetotheincreasinguseofseasoninginfood services, as well as product diversification. Also, catering sales growthmomentumstartedtopickupinDecember2018andfurther acceleratedinJanuary-February2019.Seasoningsarealsodefensivecomparedwithotherconsumerstaples.thinkseasoningplayersarerelativelyin

32、sulatedfromamacroslowdown, astheyaresupportedbymarketsharegainsinafragmentedindustry aswellasthepremiumizationtrend( HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Exhibit HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 11).thinkleadingplayerswithstrongbrandswillbethekeybeneficia- riesofthepremiumizationtrendandincreasedconsumptioniner-tiercities.

33、Ourmacroteamexpectsconsumptionupgradeslower-tier city outperformance to continue, with structuraldrivers suchasstrongerjobgrowth,improvedconnectivity,andeconomic integrationviacityclusterinitiatives.PleaseseeChinasTransitionto High Income: Navigating Chinas Consumption Headwinds (September 2018) mor

34、edetail.theupstreamyeastindustry,weseevastpotentialinChinaand emergingmarkets.However,theroomconsolidationislimitedin thedomesticmarketasthetopthreeplayersalreadyaccountover 70% marketshare.Exhibit 10:Seasoning segment forecastsSeasoning forecast model2015201620172018E2019E2020E2021ESeasoning sales

35、- split by downstream (Rmb bn)Catering (40%)115129144156172189207Residents (30%)8693101110118127137Food manufacturing (30%)86858991949698Total seasoning Sales287306334357384412443% GrowthCatering8.4%12.2%11.7%8.6%9.9%9.9%9.9%Residents8.4%7.5%8.9%8.8%7.7%7.7%7.7%Food manufacturing8.4%-1.4%4.7%2.7%2.6

36、%2.4%2.2%Total seasoning8.4%6.7%8.9%7.1%7.3%7.4%7.4%as % of totalCatering40.0%42.1%43.1%43.7%44.8%45.8%46.9%Residents30.0%30.2%30.2%30.7%30.8%30.9%31.0%Food manufacturing30.0%27.7%26.7%25.6%24.4%23.3%22.2%Growth driver - AssumptionsAs % of China catering sales3.56%3.60%3.63%3.66%3.69%3.72%3.75%Per c

37、apita consumption growth - retail value MSP8.5%7.5%8.9%8.8%7.7%7.7%7.7%As % of food manufacturing16.6%16.0%16.4%16.5%16.6%16.7%16.8%Source: CEIC, China Condiment Industry Association, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 11:Sector performance comparison (listed compa

38、nies) Seasoning players historical growth profiles appear to be defensiveSales Growth20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018e2019eHome Appliance12%20%58%26%12%16%15%-11%15%38%14%6%Home Improvement76%94%46%22%46%25%23%36%38%26%25%LiquorSportswear14%28%38%49%38%-2%-11%6%16%33%25%15%54%26%18%6%-20

39、%-8%14%22%17%20%29%20%Seasoning8%16%28%26%12%20%17%15%12%19%19%19%Restaurant30%19%-1%-2%2%10%17%16%2%5%Global-7%15%17%13%6%31%7%13%16%5%Dairy F&BFood Retailer18%22%55%9%20%24%5%16%13%3%5%8%3%12%17%6%8%29%20%15%20%12%14%-1%8%9%8%49%26%20%13%27%25%10%8%11%OEM HPCBeerAgri/Upstream32%10%17%6%8%8%6%10%15

40、%5%13%13%23%17%20%20%12%10%6%5%1%3%6%11%17%27%2%-2%4%29%6%21%10%23%38%-2%8%-1%9%Retail Sales Growth Catering Sales GrowthGDP Growth21.6%24.7%9.7%15.5%16.8%9.4%18.4%18.0%10.6%17.1%16.9%9.5%14.3%13.6%7.9%13.1%9.0%7.8%12.0%9.7%7.3%10.7%11.7%6.9%10.4%10.8%6.7%10.2%10.7%6.8%9.0%9.5%6.6%6.3%Source: Thomso

41、n Reuters, company data, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates for covered companies and Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for non-covered companies. Constituentsofsubsectors:HomeAppliance(Midea,Gree,QingdaoHaier,HaierElectronics,Supor,joyoung,Robam,Vatti,Viomi);Home

42、Improvement(Suofeiya,JasonFurniture);Liquor(Moutai,Wuliangye,Laojiao, Yanghe);Sportswear(Anta,LiNing,HeilanHome);FoodRetailer(SunArt,Yonghui,Suning);Seasoning(Haitian,Jonjee,AngelYeast,Yihai);Restaurants(YUMC,XBXB,Haidilao);Global(Samsonite,Goodbaby,Bestway, HonmaGolf);Dairy(Mengniu,Yili,Yashili);F&

43、B(Dali,WantWant,Tingyi,UPC,ChinaFoods,ZhouHeiYa);OEM(Crystal,ReginaMiracle,Shenzhou,YueYuen,EclatTextile,FengTay,Makalot,TaiwanPaiho);HPC(Hengan, ShanghaiJahwa,Proya);Beer(CRB,Tsingtao,Yanjing,Chongqing);Agri/Upstream(WHGroup,Shuanghui,COFCOMeat,ChinaAgri).ThebiggetbiggerCompetitivelandscapefavorsHa

44、itianJonjeeMarketconcentrationintheseasoningsectorisstillrelativelyseepotentialacceleratingmarketconsolidationandexpect the big players to continue to take share, leveraging their brand equityandscaleadvantages.Soysauceisoneofthemostfrag- mentedsegmentsintheindustrywithCR2(concentrationratio aggrega

45、temarketshareofthetop2players)at22%byproduction volumevs.60%inJapan.expectHaitianandJonjee,thetwo largestplayers,toaccelerateconsolidationoverthenextfiveandtakeanaggregatevolumeshareof32%inthesoysauceby 2023 vs. 22% in2018.haveperformedanin-depthcomparisonofHaitianandJonjeeidentifytheirrespectivestr

46、engths.likebothcompanies:Haitian isespeciallystronginthemassmarketandenjoysthebestopera- tionalefficiency,leveragingitsscaleadvantageandextensivedistri- butionnetworkaswellasnationalcoverage.Jonjeehasanadvantage inthepremiumsectorandisaimingtobecomeanationalplayer.JonjeeinitiateatexpectJonjeetogrowi

47、ntoanational player with a more diversified product portfolio and benefiting morefromthepremiumizationtrend.Itissupportedby1)itsmiumbrandposition,2)productcapacitybuildup,and3)proactive salesnetworkexpansionandnationalpenetration.Jonjeehashigherpotentialmarginimprovementthrough efficiencygainsanduti

48、lizationramp-upatitsYangxiproduc- tionbase.JonjeeiscurrentlytradingatadiscounttoHaitianduetoseasoningearningsgrowthin2018afteratyphooninitshome marketofGuangdongin3Q18andthetransitionalperiodlowingtheboardelectioninNovember2018.thinkJonjeeisbetterpositionedinthepremiumsegment, and that margin improv

49、ements will lead to a 25% earnings CAGRin2019-21vs.Haitians20%,drivingare-rating.Historically,JonjeehastradedatapremiumtoHaitianperiodswhenitsearningsgrowthwashigher:ittradedatapremiumin2014anda22%premiumin2016whenitsearnings growthoutpacedHaitian(Exhibit40).HaitianmaintainEWonfairvaluation:Haitiani

50、sauniqueassetin seasonings.Itsthelargestplayerinsoysauce,oystersaucecondiments (excluding chili sauce), with barriers to entry that includeitsstrongbrandequity,first-moveradvantageinnationalnetwork,andhighconsumerstickiness.Thestockisup25%thisyearvs.around20%theSSEValuationlooksfairat37x2020eP/Eanav

51、erageof38xthe pastyear.OurchannelchecksindicatethatHaitianenhanceditschannel penetrationandeffectivepromotionsin1Q19,whichallowittodrivegrowthinthehighteensin2019.Managementexpectstomaintainateens%salesCAGR2019-23,drivenbyproductsandtechnologyleadership.Itwill focus on core segments and also cultiva

52、te new including vinegar and cookingwines.expectHaitiantoacceleratemarketsharegainsamida weakermacroenvironmentbyleveragingitsbrand,marketing capabilities,channelmanagement,andnationalnetwork.will help it to increase earnings visibility and sustainable growth throughcycles.seeAngelasastronglong-term

53、butitdoesfacesome shorter-termchallenges:AngelInitiateatthinkAngelwillcontinuetoben- efitfrom:1)highpotentialbakedgoodsgrowthinemerging markets;2)productdiversificationfrommultipleapplicationsyeastextract(YE);and3)efficiencyimprovementsfromoperating leverageandglobalcapacityallocation.expectitsdomes

54、tic andoverseassalestogrowat2019-21CAGRsof12%and15%, respectively.areconcernedaboutmedium-termmarginpressurehigherenvironmentalcostsinthedomesticmarketandfying competitionglobally.expecttheGPMtodeclineby1.1pptin2019oncontinued lowutilizationattheYiliplant,lowersugarsegmentand environmentalcosts.Pote

55、ntial RMB appreciation in 2019 would have anegative impactonexportsalesgrowthandexportmargins.Valuationremainpositiveaboutthedefensivenessandsustainablegrowth of the seasoning industry. Our industry checks also indicatethat enhancedchannelpenetrationandeffectivepromotionsbyplayers in 1Q19 will drive

56、 growth in the low to high teens. China cateringsalesgrowthalsoacceleratedsequentiallytoclosetoinJanuary-February2019.Sharepricesinthedownstreamseasoning sectorareupby2025%in2019YTDcomparedwithagainofaround 20% the SSE Index. The sector outperformed the index 40-50% in 2018. see further potential re

57、-rating, driven high-visibilityearningsgrowthin2020andacceleratedsalesand market sharegains.Jonjee:Onourestimates,thestockistradingat40 x2019and32x2020 earnings at a 9% discount to Haitians 2019 P/E. expecta re-rating in 2019 from accelerating earnings growth at itssoningsubsidiary.Ourpricetargetimp

58、liesa2020P/Eof36xandaPEGof1.5x.This isinlinewithChinaF&Bstocks1.5xPEG,butlowerthanHaitians 1.8xandaglobalpeeraverageof3.6x.Oursum-of-the-partsvaluationmethodalsounlocksthevalueitsprimaryseasoningcondimentsegment(underits100%-owned subsidiaryGuangdongMeiweixian,whichisvaluedatRmb42shareapplyinga2020P

59、/Eof36x)andthediscountedoflandbankofover1mnsqm(Rmb5pershare)whenapplyinga12% conglomeratediscount.Haitian:Thestockisup20%thisyearvs.againofabout20%theSSE Index.Thestockistradingat37x2020earningsvs.anaverage38x over the pastyear.think the companys unique market position and ROEs 35-36%2019/20(periode

60、nd),comparedtoastaplespeers averageof15%(onourestimates)shouldwarrantahighertion.Ourpricetargetimpliesa2020P/Eof38x(inlinewithaverageoverthepastyear)andaPEGof1.8x.ThiscomparesitshistoricalPEGof1.8x,aglobalpeeraverageof3.6xandastaples average of1.5x.Angel Yeast:Thestockistradingat2019and2020P/Esof23x