中国汽车2020展望：缓慢复苏之路

1、2December2019ChinaEQUITIES11.20 -25.7%12.70 -11.3%4.20 -6.9%11.20 -25.7%12.70 -11.3%4.20 -6.9%TP+/-10.10 23.6%8.106.0%9.60 12.7%31.50 36.7%12.15 82.4%25.80 -5.5%6.66 27.30 15.08 Neutral1316 HK425HK175HK600104 CH 23.04 OutperformPriceRating8.17 7.64 8.52 TickerHK489 HK2238 HKName Brilliance GACSAIC N

2、exteer Minth Geely Yutong BAICBYD Wall 3.70 -38.7%3.10 -12.4%3.60 -56.7%3.70 -38.7%3.10 -12.4%3.60 -56.7%6.04 3.54 8.31 Underperform2333 HKCHCH300750 CH 87.41 Underperform 60.30 -31.0%38.15 Underperform 20.70 -45.7%4.51 NeutralHKHK600066 CH 14.31 NeutralSource: FactSet, Macquarie Research November 2

3、019AnalystsMacquarie Capital LimitedAllen Yuan +86 21 2412 9009 HYPERLINK mailto:allen.yuan allen.yuanMacquarie Capital Securities (Japan) LimitedJanet Lewis, CFA +81 3 3512 7856 HYPERLINK mailto:janet.lewis janet.lewisChina autos2020 outlook slow lane to a full recoveryKey pointsKey points Cautious

4、 outlook for 2020 PV demand, mainly considering weak demand from lower-tier cities, increased household leverage and rising CPI. We expect to see further relaxation of the license plate quota in 2020. Sector preference: higher-end lower-end NEVs. Near-term risks on the downside. OP: Brilliance, DFG,

5、 GAC; UP: GWM, BYD, CATL.ConclusionsA slow road back to recovery: We lower our 2020 China auto sales by 5% and expect passenger vehicle (PV) sales to edge up 0.5% YoY, after a sharp fall in 2019. Our cautious demand outlook, despite the low base, reflects the concerns around 1) continued macro headw

6、inds, especially a weak private economy that will impact demand from lower-tier cities; 2) the negative impact on consumption for discretionary items like autos from increased household leverage and rising CPI; 3) low consumer confidencelevels.Policy We to see further of license plate in key cities

7、in 2020, following Shenzhen and Guangzhou. We see lower chances for the to release that require intensefiscalmainlythefiscalthatthefaces in the context of tax reform and slower growth, the boost for real demand and potential to the For new energy our base factors in no further subsidy cuts in 2020 t

8、o avoid Eased regulatory burden: Following the shift to National 6 emission standards from 1 July 2019 in most regions, key OEMs have completed the transition. We dont expect to see intense industry distortion in 2020 during emission standard upgrades for the remaining regions. That said, we expect

9、to see continued margin dilution for most OEMs from NEV sales in their efforts to meet NEV credit requirements. A quick ramp-up of scale is key to achieving early profitcontribution.Sector preference: higher-end lower-end NEVs: We continue to like premium and stronger JV brands as key beneficiaries

10、of the risingreplacement demand, favourable demographic and wealth trends and potential relaxation of license plate restrictions. We are concerned about increased competition in the lower-end segments and would turn more positive when we see a major recovery in demand from lower-tier cities. We are

11、cautious on the NEV sector, considering the negative impact from subsidy cuts for the whole industry, the lack of individual demand from cities without license plate restrictions and the slowdown of demand from operatingfleets.Stock picksNear-term risks on the downside: In the near term, we see more

12、 downside risks for the sector as auto sales should remain under pressure in 1H20, considering the calendar shift of the Spring Festival and a relative high base in 2Q19 distorted by the emission standard upgrades. In addition, the trading PE multiple of the sector has moved above the five-year aver

13、age level. We suggest investors stick with OEMs with less demanding valuation and exposure to higher-end brands like Brilliance (BWM), DFG (Honda/Nissan) and GAC (Toyota/Honda). We are cautious on BYD, CATL andGWM.Please refer to page 19 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our

14、 website HYPERLINK /research/disclosures /research/disclosures.Cautious about 2020 auto demandFig 1 We expect China total auto sales to grow at a CAGR of 3% in 2019-22E20122013201420152016201720182019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019-22 CAGRNew car sales (m units)19.322.023.524.728.028.928.025.725.926.627.31

15、%Used car sales (m units)9.410.412.413.814.715.917.519.17%Total car sales (m units)27.230.532.734.138.441.341.940.541.844.146.43%New car sales YoY growth4.3%13.9%6.9%4.9%13.7%3.0%-2.9%-8.2%0.5%2.7%2.8%Used car sales YoY growth16.4%6.7%8.6%2.4%10.3%19.4%11.4%6.5%8.3%9.6%9.2%Total car sales7.6%11.8%7.

16、4%4.2%12.7%7.4%1.4%-3.4%3.4%5.4%5.3%Total car ownership (m units)109.3126.7146.0162.8185.7209.1228.7245.3261.4277.5293.7Used car sales as % of total auto ownership7.3%6.7% 6.3% 5.8%5.6%5.9%6.0%6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5%Used car sales as % of new car sales41.1%38.5% 39.2% 38.2%37.1%42.9%49.3%57.2% 61.6% 65.

17、8% 69.9%Note: RED implies key assumptions.Source: Wind, CADA, CAAM, Macquarie Research, November 2019We incorporate both new car and used car markets into our analytical framework for the China auto market as the used car market is materializing, representing 57% of total car sales in 2019, on our e

18、stimate. We expect the overall China auto market, including used cars, to grow at a CAGR of 3% between 2019-2022E, with used car sales growth outperforming new cars.Fig 2 We lower our 2019/20 China new car sales estimatesk units20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022EPassenger ve

19、hicleSedan7,4619,49410,12210,74512,01012,38011,74512,15011,84811,51610,37710,48110,69110,904MPV2494454984931,3041,9142,1092,4972,0711,7281,4361,3641,4051,447SUV6571,3181,5942,0002,9894,0826,2579,04710,2539,9699,3079,4469,82410,217Mini-bus1,9482,4922,2582,2571,6251,3321,099684547458401341324308Sub-to

20、tal10,31513,74914,47215,49517,92819,70821,21024,37724,71823,67221,52021,63222,24322,876Commercial vehicle14%Bus272356403426478530525488481450432432441456Truck2,2472,8202,7022,6532,7262,4482,2562,3642,5922,8712,6442,6442,6962,750Trailer212354258191263279250398583483561590619650Bus-chassis838784828277

21、7055463533312928Truck-chassis498675585460507457349346458532548548548548Sub-total3,3124,2934,0333,8114,0563,7913,4513,6514,1614,3714,2184,2444,3344,433Grand total13,62718,04218,50519,30621,98423,49924,66228,02828,87928,04225,73825,87626,57727,308YoY change (%)Passenger vehicleSedan48.0%27.3%6.6%6.1%1

22、1.8%3.1%-5.1%3.4%-2.5%-2.8%-9.9%1.0%2.0%2.0%MPV26.1%78.9%11.7%-0.9%164.3%46.8%10.2%18.4%-17.1%-16.5%-16.9%-5.0%3.0%3.0%SUV47.4%100.4%21.0%25.5%49.4%36.6%53.3%44.6%13.3%-2.8%-6.6%1.5%4.0%4.0%Mini-bus83.2%27.9%-9.4%-0.1%-28.0%-18.1%-17.5%-37.8%-20.0%-16.2%-12.5%-15.0%-5.0%-5.0%Sub-total52.9%33.3%5.3%7

23、.1%15.7%9.9%7.6%14.9%1.4%-4.2%-9.1%0.5%2.8%2.8%SUV penetration6.4%9.6%11.0%12.9%16.7%20.7%29.5%37.1%41.5%42.1%43.2%43.7%44.2%44.7%Commercial vehicleBus10.9%31.1%13.3%5.5%12.4%10.7%-0.9%-7.0%-1.6%-6.3%-4.0%0.0%2.0%3.5%Truck36.9%25.5%-4.2%-1.8%2.7%-10.2%-7.8%4.8%9.7%10.7%-7.9%0.0%2.0%2.0%Trailer9.1%67

24、.2%-27.3%-26.0%38.2%5.9%-10.3%59.1%46.6%-17.2%16.2%5.0%5.0%5.0%Bus-chassis-2.4%4.3%-2.8%-3.2%0.0%-5.5%-8.9%-21.9%-15.5%-24.9%-6.7%-5.0%-5.0%-5.0%Truck-chassis11.0%35.5%-13.3%-21.5%10.3%-9.8%-23.6%-0.9%32.3%16.1%3.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Sub-total26.7%29.6%-6.1%-5.5%6.4%-6.5%-9.0%5.8%13.9%5.1%-3.5%0.6%2.1%2.3%

25、total45.6%32.4%2.6%4.3%13.9%6.9%4.9%13.7%3.0%-2.9%-8.2%0.5%2.7%2.8%Source: CAAM, Macquarie Research, November 2019Remain cautious about 2020 PV demand, especially in lower-tier citiesWe lower our China auto sales estimates for 2019 and 2020 by 4% and 5%, respectively. We expect passenger vehicle mar

26、ket to post 0.5% YoY sales growth in 2020, coming off a low base in 2019. The conservative outlook mainly reflects our cautious view for the demand in lower tier cities, which has been the main drag in 2019, consideringFig 3 Sales growth in 10M19 lower-tiercitiesdragFig 4 Tier 3-6 cities contributed

27、 67% of China autosales6.0% 6 19%10%Tier 514%Tier 223%Tier 421%Tier 323%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%Tota l marketTier 1Tier 2Tier 3Tier 4Tier 5Tier 6TotalmarketTier 1Tier 2Tier 3Tier 4Tier 5Tier 6Note: based on 10M19 insurance data; only include passenger vehicles. Source: ThinkerCar, Macquarie Rese

28、arch November 2019Note: based on 10M19 insurance data; only include passenger vehicles. Source: ThinkerCar, Macquarie Research November 2019Continued macro headwinds, especially a weak privateeconomyChinas economy has been under a broad down-trend for almost eight quarters since 4Q17. Macquarie econ

29、omist Larry Hu expects real GDP growth to slow further in 4Q19 from 6.0% in 3Q19. A weakened GDP has led to narrowed disposable income growth as well.Fig 5 GDP growth continues totrend downFig 6 Overall disposable income alsoslowed9.0%8.5%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%2013-122014-032013-122014-032014-0620

30、14-092014-122015-032015-062015-092015-122016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-09Actu al disp osal p ersonal income accumulated YoY gr owthSource: CEIC, Wind, Macquarie Macro Strategy,November2019Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, Novemb

31、er2019We believe the private sector economy has been under intense operating pressure. We reviewed the profit data for above designated size industrial enterprises, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). One of the key observations is that there is a significant discrepancy in the %

32、 change for accumulated industrial output for private enterprises between the % data for YoY change in accumulated industrial output, as directly reported by the NBS the % results calculated using the absolute value of accumulated industrial outputThe NBS attributes this to the change in the number

33、of enterprises included in the basket of above designated size industrial enterprises. We attribute the discrepancies to survivorship bias, i.e. more private enterprises fall below the threshold of an above designated size industrial enterprise. This could reflect the shrinking size of many private

34、companies. In addition, gearing ratios of private enterprises remain elevated. Interest spread between SOEs and private enterprises is also at historically high levels.Per the PBoC Governor (LINK), small and micro businesses, mostly private enterprises, contributed 80% of the total employment in Chi

35、na. Continued sluggish performance of private enterprises should dampen auto demand.Fig 7 Industrial output well matchedfor SOEsFig 8 Industrial output discrepancies sincemid-201712010080.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%2012015-022015-052015-082015-112016-022016-052016-082016-112017-022017-052017-0

36、82017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-0820.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%2012015-022015-052015-082015-112016-022016-052016-082016-112017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-08Industrialout- SOE (reported accumulated % change) Industrialout- SOE (calc

37、ulated accumuld% change)Industrialout- privateerprises(reported accumula % change) Industrialout- privateerprises(calculated accud% change)Source: Wind, Macquarie Research,November2019Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, November2019Fig 9 Gearing ratio for SOEs vs. private enterpriseFig10Interest sprea

38、d between SOEs andprivate companies64.062.060.058.056.054.052.02012015-022015-052015-082015-112016-022016-052016-082016-112017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-08Overall industrial sectorSOEsPrivate enterprises2502001501000-50Inte rest sp read between SOEs and pr

39、ivate enterprisesSource: Wind, Macquarie Research,November2019Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, November2019Negative impact from increased household leverageOverall China household leverage has gone up meaningfully over the past few years. We observe that there is negative correlation between China

40、household leverage and China annual auto sales growth. This may reflect the tendency that the household sector may want to pay down their debt first before spending more, especially on discretionary items. Per PBoCs estimates, every 1% increase in consumer leverage will lead to a 0.1ppt decrease in

41、consumer confidence.Fig 11 Negative correlation between household leverage and China auto salesCorrelation: -0.6Correlation: -0.60%199820012004200620092012201420172020autoLinear (Household levearge)Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019 auto sales)Consumer confidence at lowlevelsWith the slo

42、wdown of economic growth and other macro uncertainties such as the trade war, consumers are likely to remain cautious about making purchase decisions, especially about discretionary items like automobiles. The rising urban deposit growth rate from 2018 should also reflect consumers cautious about sp

43、ending, especially on discretionary items.Fig 12 Flat consumer confidencesincemid-2018Fig 13 Rural consumer confidence dippingmore13112913112912712512312111911711512512011511010510095.00PBoCconsumer nceindexOverallUrban consumerRural consumerSource: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019Note: The su

44、rvey is based on the sample in Zhejiang. Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019Fig14Urban household deposit balance growth on the rise since2018Fig 15 Relatively lower growth for discretionary items (yellow columns)40%35%30%15%10%5%0%AutomobileFood,BeveraTobaccoLiquorPetroleum Related Produc

45、tClothing, Sho & TextileHousehold Electric & Vide oApp lianceDaily UseGoo ds2008-012008-092009-052010-012010-092012008-012008-092009-052010-012010-092011-052012-012012-092013-052014-012014-092015-052016-012016-092017-052018-012018-092019-05Source: Wind, Macquarie ResearchNovember2019Source: Wind, Ma

46、cquarie Research November2019Extra burden from risingCPIIn October, China CPI inflation jumped to 3.8% YoY, mainly due to the surging pork prices. There could be two negative impacts from the elevated inflationpressure: Squeezing spending on discretionary items: Higher costs of daily necessities lik

47、e food should squeeze spending on discretionary items like automobiles. Lower income groups or rural consumers should bear a greater negative impact from this as a higher percentage of their spending goes into food.Fig 16 CPI has been rising, mainly on the back of surging pork prices20.00Fig17Engels

48、 Coefficient higher spending on food for ruralconsumers15.0010.005.000.00-5.00-10.00CPICPI(food)CPI (excl.food)43.041.039.037.035.033.031.029.027.025.0201020112012201320142015201620172018RuralUrbanSource: Wind, Macquarie ResearchNovember2019Note: Engels Coefficient represents the part of spending on

49、food.Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019 Delayed monetary policy: In Larry Hus view (LINK), although the PBoC should ignore pork and focus on core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy), PMI, Profit and PPI, government officials have a natural tendency to minimize risks and are putting

50、 monetary policy on hold for now.Government policies we expect to see more relaxation in vehiclepurchasesConsidering the importance of the auto industry and the expectation of challenges for both exports and property in 2019, we expect the government to release supportive measures to stimulate auto

51、consumption in 2020.Fig 18 Auto sector contributed 8% and 9% of industrial revenue and net profit in 2018, respectivelyFig 19 Auto sector (incl. gasoline) contributed 43% of the retail sales value in 2018%12.0%10.0%8.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%18%18%18%18%17%16%13%14%19%18%21%14%13%17%12%14%14%

52、15%18%19%21%21%27%29%27%26%26%27%27%28%28%29%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Revenue contributionNet profit contributionAuto as % of totalGasolineas% oftotalSource: CEIC, Macquarie Research,November2019Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, November2019Fig 20 Potential supportive policies for China auto sect

53、orPotentialsupportivepoliciesCommentsPossibility ImmediateimpactRemove restrictive measures for PV purchases, suchas removing the license platequota.Direct fiscal support, incl. target subsidies for rural auto consumption or 50% purchase tax cut for small enginevehicles.Encourage the upgrade of lowe

54、r emission vehicles, incl.special trade-insubsidies.Such measures could effectively help boostauto Highdemand.Key concerns include 1) lack of spendingpower; MediumHigh2) potential industry distortion; 3) fiscal pressureKey concerns include 1) lack of spendingpower; MediumMedium2) fiscal pressureImpr

55、ove auto financing supply, especially in lowertiercities.Auto financing is no longer a bottleneck;cautious LowLowabout loosening shadow bankingPotential tax reform for auto consumption, such asallowing personal income tax deduction for autoconsumptionIt involves legal procedurals for such taxreforms

56、. LowLowRemove operation restriction in urban areas forpick-uptrucksGovernment has beenpushingthrough.n.a.LowImprove used car transactions, incl. removing restriction for cross-region registration, VAT tax cut for used cartransaction.Source: Macquarie Research, November 2019Government has beenpushin

57、gthrough.n.a.Low Expect more relaxation of license plate quota: Following the relaxation of the license plate quota in Shenzhen and Guangzhou (LINK), we expect to see more cities follow suit. The total ICE license plate quota in the six key cities with license plate restrictions was 650k in 2019. As

58、 there are long waiting lists for ICE vehicles in these cities, any loosening of the restrictive measures could lead to prompt releases of demand. With 50% and 100% increases with the existing quota, total annual PV sales could be boosted by1-3%.Fig 21 Key cities with license plate restrictionsCityS

59、tarting timeHow to get license plateICE quota in 2019NEV license plate quotaShanghai1994Auction130,000No specific quotaBeijingDec-10Lottery40,00060,000GuangzhouJul-12Auction + Lottery180,000No specific quotaTianjinDec-13Auction + Lottery100,000No specific quotaShenzhenDec-14Auction + Lottery120,000N

60、o specific quotaHangzhouMar-15Auction + Lottery80,000No specific quotaNote: Shanghai and Guangzhou ICE quotas are based on estimates. Source: Macquarie Research, November 2019 Fiscal pressure limits subsidy-type of polies: We see less chance for the government to release supportive policies that req