Gartner -使用情景规划为不确定的能源未来做好准备（英）-18正式版

GartnerResearchUseScenarioPlanningtoPrepareforanUncertainEnergyFutureRichMcAvey,ZarkoSumic,EthanCohen,MikeRamsey,BettinaTratz-Ryan,KeithHarrison,StephenSmith,ChetGeschickter,NicoleFoust,SimonCushing,LloydJones11August2021UseScenarioPlanningtoPrepareforanUncertainEnergyFuturePublished11August2021-IDG00755172-11minreadByAnalyst(s):RichMcAvey,ZarkoSumic,EthanCohen,MikeRamsey,BettinaTratz-Ryan,KeithHarrison,StephenSmith,ChetGeschickter,NicoleFoust,SimonCushing,LloydJonesInitiatives:ExecutiveLeadership:Sustainability;CIOLeadershipofInnovation,DisruptiveTrendsandEmergingPracticesRapidlygrowingdemandforenergy—andconsequentialenvironmentalimpacts—iscreatingglobaldisruptionsforeveryindustry.Executiveleadersshouldusethefutureofenergyscenariotoanticipate,prepareandnavigateacomplexandvolatilefuture.OverviewKeyFindingsAsdevelopingcountriesmakeeconomicprogress,theirgrowingenergyneedsplacesubstantialpressureonglobalenergymarketsandenvironmentalconditions.Economicincentivesdonotreflectthetotalsocietalcostofincreasingenergyproductionontheenvironmentskewingnear-terminvestments.Energyavailabilityandcostare,directlyorindirectly,fundamentalfactorsthatdeterminetheviabilityofeverybusinessineveryindustry.Mostcompaniesarenotawareofhowmuchexposuretheyhavetodisruptionscomingfromenergymarkets.Energymarketsareataninflectionpoint.Growingdemand,lackof“game-changing”technologiesandunreliableinvestmentincentivesmakethefutureofenergyhardtopredict.Dataanddigitaltechnologies,ifusedinnovelways,maybealargefactorinshapingfutureenergyscenarios.Mostexecutiveleadershavenotyetconnectedtheirdigitalstrategieswiththeunderlyingrisksfromenergydisruption.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page1of11RecommendationsExecutiveleadersinvolvedindesigninganadaptivestrategytopreparefortheimpactofenergydisruptionontheirorganizationshould:Usescenarioplanningtoprepareforanuncertainenergyfutureandinterpretchangesinawiderangeofforces(social,technological,economic,environmentalandpolitical)toanticipateenergydisruptionsinatimelymanner.Analyzetheirorganization’sexposuretoenergydisruptionbyusingfourscenariostoidentifywhichuncertaintiespresentthegreatestrisksandopportunitiestotheirbusinessmodelandinvestmentportfolio.Strengthentheirorganization’sreadinessforthefuturebyaskingtherightquestionstochallengeconventionalthinking,reviewingtheimpactofenergyscenariosontheirorganization’sbusinessmodelandkeepingtheirIToperatingmodelinsyncwithcurrentrequirements.AnalysisThisresearchisadaptedfromSucceedinginaWorldWheretheFutureofEnergyDisruptsEverything,whichguidestheCIOstoprepareforanuncertainenergyfuturebyscenarioplanning.AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),theenergydemandisprojectedtogrow15%from2020through2030.1Overthesameperiod,theenergy-relatedCO2emissionsareforecasttogrowbyapproximately11%.1Beyond2050,industryexperts’forecastsoverthelastfewyearsdivergesignificantly.Someanticipatesustainedgrowth,somepredictnegativegrowthandothersforecastinitialgrowththendecline.1Theserangesofuncertaintymakeitimpossibleforcompaniestoplanspecificstrategiestocopewiththeirexposuretoenergymarketdisruptions.Also,sincetheCOVID-19outbreak,long-termenergyforecastshavegrownlessclear.ItisforthisreasonthatGartnercreatedtheplanningscenariosinthisresearch.Becausewhenleadersfaceextremeuncertainty,traditionalplanningapproachesdonotalwayswork.Scenarioshelpleaderscomeupwithavarietyofpotentialoutcomesratherthanasingle-point,staticforecastbasedonassumptions.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page2of11FourFutureofEnergyScenariosInApril2019,wegatheredamultidisciplinaryteamtoaddressenergyuncertainty,createaframeworkandbuildasetofscenariosthatdescribesthefutureofenergyacrossallindustries.Scenariomethodologylooksatawiderangeofcurrentandemergingpolitical,social,economicandotherforcesthatwillsignificantlyinfluencethefuture,andenablesenterprisestoidentifybigforcesthatmayaffectfutureoutcomes.Thefutureofenergyscenarioframeworkisbasedontwoforces:economicexternalities—indirecteconomicfactorsthatshapeenergycostsandinvestmentincentives,suchastheconsequencesofenergyproductionontheenvironment,taxesandsubsidies;andtechnologycapabilities—state-of-the-artcapabilitiesforcreating,distributingandconsumingenergy,includingprovenmeansandnewinventions.Theintersectionofthesetwoforcesprovidesuswithfouruniquepossiblescenarios(seeFigure1).Figure1.FutureofEnergyFrameworkGartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page3of11Eachscenarioidentifiedinthefutureofenergyframeworkexploresthefollowingcharacteristics:BusinessContext:Technologystate,businessmodel,investmentpostureandotherfactorsBusinessMindset:Operationalexcellence,bimodal,preferredplayerorgrowthHowtoWininThisScenario:Adviceforcompaniesthatwantto(ormust)remainorenter—andsucceed—inaspecificscenarioItalsorepresentsaplausibleoutcomethathelpsexecutiveleadersidentifyhowtheyfeelaboutthefuturetoday.Executiveleadersshouldshareitwiththeircross-functionalpeersandtheboardtoachieveacommonvision.ScenarioA:StatusQuoWorldCompaniesinthisscenarioaretryingtohangontowhattheyhave,puttingupbarrierstokeepoutnewmarketentrants.Mostoftheiropportunitiesarecreatedbyotherpeoples’money—mainlygovernments.Statusquocompaniestendtobepredictable,reliable,haveachievedeconomiesofscale,andconcentrateoncost-efficiencyandoperationalexcellence.Thereisastrongfocusonriskmanagement,andtheytypicallywillnotinvestinsomethingthatmayunderminetheirmainrevenuestreams.Theywillrespondtothingstheyhaveto—suchasnaturaldisastersandregulations.Nobody’sbusinessmodelwillbedisruptedorsignificantlychangedinthisscenario(seeTable1).Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page4of11Table1:ScenarioA:StatusQuoWorldBusinessContext:BusinessMindset:HowtoWininThisOperationalMostlyStableScenarioExcellence■Noonehasa■Theyworryabouttechnologyharmfulregulationsadvantage■Thereareminimal■Subsidiesandtaxeslargeinvestmentsareinconsistentand■Theyuseminimaltransientdigital—primarilyto■Thereisminimaloptimizeperformancethreatfromnewbusinessmodels

Winnersinthisscenarioarereallyjustsurvivors—mixingstrongcorebusinessoperationoptimizationwithpreemptiveregulatorymanagement.Theirgoalistoprotectthecurrentbusinessmodelbyavoidingdamagefrompolicychanges.Therearenolong-termwinningstrategiesinthisscenario,buttosurviveorganizationsmust:ProtectcapitalinvestmentPrioritizecost-efficiencyManageregulatoryissuespreemptivelySource:Gartner(August2021)Webelievethisscenariomaynotbesustainableinthelongterm.Acatastrophicevent(orseriesofevents)coulddestroyastatusquocompany.Forexample,aCaliforniautilitythatfacedbankruptcyduetoenvironmentaldisastersandregulatoryfines.Or,asuddenchangeinenergypolicyandknee-jerkregulationasexperiencedinJapanandGermanyfollowingtheFukushimaDaiichinuclearreactorincident.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page5of11ScenarioB:MixedWorldInthisscenario,therearesometechnologicalbreakthroughs(suchasscalableandaffordablestorage)thatcouldenhancerevenueorimprovecost-efficienciesbyaddressingenvironmentalimpact.Butthesubsidiesmaybetooweaktooffsetanytechnology-drivengainsorenabletechnologytoscale.Companiesmaybeabletomixtraditionalanddigitalbusinessmodelsinthisscenario,toopenupnewregionsordomains(windorsolar,forexample)orleverageplatformbusinessmodelstoenablepeer-to-peerenergyexchangesonalimitedscale.Butthemainpurposeofdigitalhereistoaddvalueforthenewtechnology(seeTable2).Table2:ScenarioB:MixedWorld(EnlargedtableinAppendix)Thisscenarioismoreofafree-for-allthatfavorsaggressiveincumbents,well-capitalizednewentrantsandthosewithdeeppocketswhocaninvestinabreakthroughinnovation.IfMixedWorldincumbentscannotcompete,theywillbepushedoutofthemarketplace.However,thesecompaniestendtohavemorediversifiedassetportfolios,areagileandthuscanscalemorequicklythanthoseinotherscenariosandhaveahigherrisktolerance.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page6of11ScenarioC:GovernedWorldInthisscenario,the“customer”isreallytheregulatororpolicymaker.Abreakthroughtechnologyhasn’temergedyet.Soratherthanfocusingontechnologyinnovationandconsequentbusinessprocesstransformation,companiesrelyongovernmentsubsidiesandacceptregulatoryconstraintstosetupbusinessdirections.Infact,policymakers-regulatorsoftentrytoforcecertainactivitiesthroughtaxation,incentives,capandtrade,tariffsandothergovernmentprograms.Politicianscan“pickwinners”byregulatingpricingemissioncontrolsandotherparameters(seeTable3).Table3:ScenarioC:GovernedWorldBusinessContext: BusinessMindset: HowtoWininThisAdaptability PreferredPlayerScenario■Marketpricesfully■Regulatorrelationsreflecttruevalueandstrategyaretop■Transformationisprioritiesshapedby■Sweatassetsareregulations,notoftenusedtoavoidinnovationriskyinvestments■Existingbusiness■Theyusedigitalformodelsadaptasreliability,agilityandneededadaptability

WinnersinthisscenarioareexpertsatextractingadditionalincrementalvaluefromexistingassetsanddeferringlargeinvestmentswhoseROIdependsonvolatileregulations;forexample,solarsubsidies.Theyalsohaveplentyofregulatoryacumentoinfluenceenergypolicy.Thosewhobestanticipatechangesandadjustoperatingmodelsaccordinglywillwin.Tosucceedtheymust:Balanceregulatoryandoperatingpriorities■ Avoidgettingentrenchedinrigidassetsormarkets■ FindwaystocreatenonregulatedrevenueSource:Gartner(August2021)Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page7of11Inthisscenario,economicexternalitiesmayvarybymarket/regionbutthegovernmentguaranteesinvestments.GovernedWorldcompaniesmakesurethattheywillnotbeadverselyaffectedbyexternalityvariationsorregulatoryintervention.Forexample,iftheyaretoldtoclosedowntheircoalplants,theywillexpecttogetafinancialincentiveinreturn.Theywilldobusinessinanyspace;forexample,electricvehicles,aslongastheyarereceivingsubsidiestodoso.Theycannotaffordtoembraceanyparticulartechnology,marketorproductbecausethegovernmentmayforcethemoutorincentivizethemtodosomethingelse.Asaresult,theyadopttechnologymoreslowlyandmoreincrementally.ScenarioD:TransformedWorldCompaniesintheTransformedWorldscenariobenefitfromstrongcapitalavailability,transformationaltechnologybreakthroughsandemergingnewbusinessmodels(seeTable4).Technologyadvancementssuchashyper-low-costphotovoltaicgeneration,IoT-baseddemandmanagementandlarge-scaleelectricitystorage,forexample,willchangethenatureofenergymarkets.Insteadofsupply-centric(generation,distributionandconsumption),theTransformedWorldscenariowillbecustomer-centric:Howdowegivecustomerstheproductsandservicestheywantandneed,andhowdowecreatevaluefromtheseproductsandservices?Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page8of11Table4:ScenarioD:TransformedWorldBusinessContext: BusinessMindset: HowtoWininThisAggressive GrowthScenario■Unprecedented■Theycollaboratewithbusinessopportunitycustomersonnew■Investmentdrivesproductsandservicestransformation■Theycreate■Newbusinessmodelspartnershipstoexpandrapidlydominate■Digitalisusedtocreatenewdisruptivevaluestreams

Winnersinthisscenarioneedanaggressiveentrepreneurialcultureandleaderswhoconstantlypursuenewopportunities.Theywillmakemassiveinvestmentsandneedcollaborativepartnershipswithco-innovatorsandlarge-scaleexecutionplayers.Winnersexperimenttolearnandunlockeconomicvaluefromgame-changingtechnologies.Towin,organizationsmust:BuildnewdigitalbusinessplatformstoscaleDevelopaglobalecosystemforgrowthCreateinnovativenewbusinessmodelsSource:Gartner(August2021)Thesecompaniesfocusonfiguringouthowtobuy,sell,investandmanageallofthisinawaythatdeliverscustomervalue.Inthisscenario,technology(ortechnologies)hasshownextremesuccessandthegovernmentissettinguppathwaysforthetechnologytoscaleup.Companiesthathavethistechnologywillbeverysuccessful,sincetheroleofdigitalistotrulydisruptandcreatenewvaluestreams.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page9of11HowtoUseTheseScenariostoPreparefortheFutureThescenariosinthisresearchprovidearichnarrative;however,theyshouldbeviewedasthestartingpointforexecutiveleaderstoanticipatechangeanddeveloppracticalstrategiesfornavigatingthroughthiscomplexandvolatileperiod.Eachscenariohasverydistinctrequirementsaroundhowdataanddigitaltechnologieswillplay.Thismeansthatexecutiveleaders’prioritieswillvarydependinguponwhichscenariounfolds:StatusQuoWorldScenario:Useminimaldigitaltooptimizeperformance.MixedWorldScenario:Usedigitaltoenableabimodalbusinessmodel.GovernedWorldScenario:Usedigitalforreliability,agilityandadaptability.TransformedWorldScenario:Usedigitaltocreatenewdisruptivevaluestreams.Itisvirtuallyimpossibleforanexecutiveleadertoprepareforallfourofthesedivergentscenariosatthesametime.Toavoidhavingtheirenterprisespulledapartbyinconsistentresponsestotheevolutionofenergyscenarios,theymustfocusonthreepriorities:Asktherightquestionstoraiseawareness:Identifyopportunities,risksandunknownfactorsbyaskingquestions.Forexample,docustomerswantyourproductinthenewworld?Willclimatechangeconsiderationsdestroyyourbusinessmodel,createnewbusinessmodelopportunitiesorboth?Howwillenergypoliciesaffectyourcustomersandemployees?Usescenariostoreviewthebusinessmodel:Scenariorisksandunknownswillleadtofundamentallydifferentbusinessmodels.Understandwhatareasofthebusinessneedtorespond.Engagingyourdirectreportsandcross-functionalleaderstoidentifythemostappropriatefuturescenariocanhelpprovidecontexttodevelop,refineandrevisethemodel,orevendevelopnewonesandstrategies,basedonbusinessgoals.Letscenariosdefinechangeintheoperatingmodel:Organizechangestoyourbusiness’soperatingmodeltostayinsyncwithscenariodevelopment.Scenariosarealsousefulforsynchronizingtheenterprise’soperatingmodelwithbusinessmodels.Whilebusinessmodelsshowwhatneedstobedone,theoperatingmodelshowshowthingsgetdone.Bimodaloperationwillbeakeycorecompetencyforachievingfuturesuccess,butiftheoperatingmodeldoesnotchange,theenterprisebusinessmodelandstrategydevelopmentwillnotcometofruition.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page10of11Executiveleadersshouldplayasignificantroleinidentifyinga“desiredstate”foranygiven“FutureofEnergy”scenarioandaligntheoperatingmodelwithit,asappropriate.Aboveall,theymustconfirmthattheiroperatingmodelsupportscurrentmission-criticalpriorities,whileensuringthatitevolvestofitfuturescenarios.EvidenceGlobalEnergyDemandandCO2EmissionsTrendsintheStatedPoliciesScenario,2019-2030,InternationalEnergyAgency.RecommendedbytheAuthorsSomedocumentsmaynotbeavailableaspartofyourcurrentGartnersubscription.Top10TrendsDrivingtheUtilityIndustryin2021SucceedinginaWorldWheretheFutureofEnergyDisruptsEverythingIndustryInsights:2021OilandGasTopTrendsUrgentActionNeeded:EnergyMarketsAreChangingFasterThanEnergyCompaniesHowEnergyExecutivesCanGetAheadofEnvironmentalRisksWithStrongGreenhouseGasCommitmentsEnergyCompaniesAreFacingaDecadeofDeepRedesignandNeedStrongCIOLeadership2022Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.GartnerisaregisteredtrademarkofGartner,Inc.anditsaffiliates.ThispublicationmaynotbereproducedordistributedinanyformwithoutGartner'spriorwrittenpermission.ItconsistsoftheopinionsofGartner'sresearchorganization,whichshouldnotbeconstruedasstatementsoffact.Whiletheinformationcontainedinthispublicationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,Gartnerdisclaimsallwarrantiesastotheaccuracy,completenessoradequacyofsuchinformation.AlthoughGartnerresearchmayaddresslegalandfinancialissues,Gartnerdoesnotprovidelegalorinvestmentadviceanditsresearchshouldnotbeconstruedorusedassuch.YouraccessanduseofthispublicationaregovernedbyGartner’sUsagePolicy.Gartnerpridesitselfonitsreputationforindependenceandobjectivity.Itsresearchisproducedindependentlybyitsresearchorganizationwithoutinputorinfluencefromanythirdparty.Forfurtherinformation,see"GuidingPrinciplesonIndependenceandObjectivity."Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page11of11Table1:ScenarioA:StatusQuoWorldBusinessContext:MostlyStableBusinessMindset:OperationalHowtoWininThisScenarioExcellenceNoonehasatechnologyadvantageSubsidiesandtaxesareinconsistentandtransientThereisminimalthreatfromnewbusinessmodels

TheyworryaboutharmfulregulationsThereareminimallargeinvestmentsTheyuseminimaldigital—primarilytooptimizeperformance

Winnersinthisscenarioarereallyjustsurvivors—mixingstrongcorebusinessoperationoptimizationwithpreemptiveregulatorymanagement.Theirgoalistoprotectthecurrentbusinessmodelbyavoidingdamagefrompolicychanges.Therearenolong-termwinningstrategiesinthisscenario,buttosurviveorganizationsmust:ProtectcapitalinvestmentPrioritizecost-efficiencyManageregulatoryissuespreemptivelySource:Gartner(August2021)Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page1Aof4ATable2:ScenarioB:MixedWorldBusinessContext:BalancingBusinessMindset:BimodalHowtoWininThisScenarioGame-changingtechnologiesexistInvestmentincentivesareweakorinconsistentOldandnewbusinessmodelscoexist

TheyfocusonselectiveregionsorenergydomainsTheywillpourlegacycashflowintoattractivenewmarketsTheyusedigitallyprimarilytoenableabimodalbusinessmodel

Winnersinthisscenarioareorganizationscapableofsustainingtraditionalbusinessoperationsinmostregionswhilealsoinvestingheavilyinnewtechnologyinregionswithfavorableeconomics.Theyalsomustbalanceregulatoryandoperatingpriorities.Tosucceedinthisscenario,organizationsmustpossess:MarketsavvytechniquestoidentifythemostattractivemarketsAbilitytoinvestatscaleindiverseregionsMultiple,mixedstrategiesandoperationsSource:Gartner(August2021)Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page2Aof4ATable3:ScenarioC:GovernedWorldBusinessContext:AdaptabilityBusinessMindset:PreferredPlayerHowtoWininThisScenarioMarketpricesfullyreflecttruevalueTransformationisshapedbyregulations,notinnovationExistingbusinessmodelsadaptasneeded

RegulatorrelationsandstrategyaretopprioritiesSweatassetsareoftenusedtoavoidriskyinvestmentsTheyusedigitalforreliability,agilityandadaptability

WinnersinthisscenarioareexpertsatextractingadditionalincrementalvaluefromexistingassetsanddeferringlargeinvestmentswhoseROIdependsonvolatileregulations;forexample,solarsubsidies.Theyalsohaveplentyofregulatoryacumentoinfluenceenergypolicy.Thosewhobestanticipatechangesandadjustoperatingmodelsaccordinglywillwin.Tosucceedtheymust:BalanceregulatoryandoperatingprioritiesAvoidgettingentrenchedinrigidassetsormarketsFindwaystocreatenonregulatedrevenueSource:Gartner(August2021)Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page3Aof4ATable4:ScenarioD:TransformedWorldBusinessContext:AggressiveBusinessMindset:GrowthHowtoWininThisScenarioUnprecedentedbusinessopportunityInvestmentdrivestransformationNewbusinessmodelsdominate

TheycollaboratewithcustomersonnewproductsandservicesTheycreatepartnershipstoexpandrapidlyDigitalisusedtocreatenewdisruptivevaluestreams

Winnersinthisscenarioneedanaggressiveentrepreneurialcultureandleaderswhoconstantlypursuenewopportunities.Theywillmakemassiveinvestmentsandneedcollaborativepartnershipswithco-innovatorsandlarge-scaleexecutionplayers.Winnersexperimenttolearnandunlockeconomicvaluefromgame-changingtechnologies.Towin,organizationsmust:BuildnewdigitalbusinessplatformstoscaleDevelopaglobalecosystemforgrowthCreateinnovativenewbusinessmodelsSource:Gartner(August2021)Gartner,Inc.|G00755172 Page4Aof4AActionable,objectiveinsightPositionyourorganizationforsuccess.ExploretheseadditionalcomplimentaryresourcesandtoolsonforCIOs:eBookCIOAgendaTheleadership,organizationalandtechnologyprioritiesCIOsmustaddressin2023.DownloadNowResourceHubInsightsandToolsforCIOsintheEnergyandUtilityIndustryDrivestrongerperformanceonyourmission-criticalpriorities.

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