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SectorSketchandSWOTAnalysisoftheDutchOilSector

–FinalPresentation–

DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairs

OilDivisionTheHague,3rdFebruary1999罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第1页!AconflictappearstobeemergingbetweenthetraditionalDutcheconomicstrengthsandmorerecentenvironmentalconcernsDutcheconomicprosperityOilindustryfocussedonexportsFoundedontradingMotorofRotterdamtradingstrengthDutchenvironmentLegitimateenvironmentalconcernsHighpopulationdensitylow-lying-vulnerabletoGlobalwarmingGlobalwarmingCongestionNoiseExportindustrymustbeinternationallypetitivetosurviveToughenvironmentalstanceConflict罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第2页!ContentsPageA.ExtractsfromSectorSketchB.FeedbackfromoilandchemicalpanyinterviewsC.SWOTAnalysisC.1.StrengthsC.2.WeaknessesC.3.OpportunitiesC.4.ThreatsD.Remendations47111217232631罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第3页!TheDutchoilindustryhastraditionallybeenstrongandinternationallyorientatedRefiningandChemicalsTradingPortsOnly15%oftotaloilsupplydestinedforhomemarketAccountsfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacityKeysynergieswithandsupplytoDutchchemicalsindustryBeneluxchemicalclusterissecondlargestinEuropeRotterdam‘world’sleadingport’for30yearsRoad,rail,inlandwaterwayandpipelineconnectionstomanymajormarketsMajoroiltradingmarketintheEUtimezoneandoneofthebig3globally(Rotterdam,Houston,Singapore)罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第4页!B.Feedbackfromoilandchemicalpanyinterviews罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第5页!Allintervieweesrecognisedthe‘WorldClass’infrastructureofRotterdam,althoughtherearethreemajorcontentiousissuesPortfeesCommon

carrierpipelineMaasvlakte2CurrentsituationIndustryviewpointAlternativeapproachHarbourduesbasedontonnageratherthanservicesusedRotterdamismoreexpensivethanAntwerp,LeHavreorHamburg.Theoilindustry‘subsidises’thecontainerindustryBasechargesmoreonservicesthanontonnagebasisNomon-carrierpipelineexistsMaybeeconomicallyviableConsidermoncarrierwhereextraflexibilityneeded,butpensateownersofpipelinesforinvestmentandriskPositivediscussionlikely:newlandreclamationathighcostExtralandwillfavourchemicalsectorTheoilindustrydoesnotrequireextralandEnsureproperfundingforMaasvlakte2:Noburdenonoilindustry罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第6页!C.SWOTAnalysis罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第7页!TheDutchoilsectorislargeandwellconcentrated,accountingfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacity(paredto4.5%consumption)EuropoortPernisCrudeCapacity(b/d)NerefcoShellEssoTotalKPIS&H374,000400,000180,000148,00070,00010,000BotlekVlissingen+xAmsterdamEuropoort79,500KochEuropoortSource:MinistryofEconomicAffairs罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第8页!ThisintegrationissupportedbyworldclassinfrastructureHarboursandterminalsDeepwaterharbours,particularlyRotterdamDirectaccessibilityfortheworld’slargesttankersHighvolumecapacityandshortturn-aroundtimeExtensivebargehandlingPipelinesSupplyBelgiumandGermanywithcrudeandproductsConnectionstomajorchemicalclustersinandbeyondtheNetherlandsMorethan1100kmnetworkwithinRotterdamlinkingproducersandstoragepaniesRoadandRailConsiderableinfrastructurecurrentlyinplaceMajorinvestmentprogrammeinprogress罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第9页!C.2.Weaknesses罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第10页!OftheNetherlandsrefineries,onlyShellandEssohavetheup-gradingflexibilitytomeetfuturedemandswithonlylimitedinvestmentSource:IEA;DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairs,RB&PanalysisFCCequivalentconversioncapacity(%distillationcapacity)DistillationcapacityMT/year12%25%99%3.820.07.4918.737%KPIEuropoortTotal/DOWVlissingenEssoRotterdamShellPernisNerefco(BP/Texaco)Europoort34%EURefineries

average66%38%Germany40%UnitedKingdom24%France23%BelgiumAverageConversionCapacities54%TheNetherlands罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第11页!Thecostofclean-upregulationsinRotterdamisdistortingtheincentivesfortheoilindustrytoreleaseunusedlandbutTheLose-LoseoutecanonlychangetoWin-WinbyalteringtheincentivesforlandreleaseClean-upcostsinEUarebetweenNLG100m-NLG400mperrefinery(~NLG60-120/m2)Evenwhereplantshaveclosed,oilindustryhasincentivetoretainlandandpayrentratherthanpayimmediateclean-upcostSimilareconomicsconstrainreleaseofsurpluslandfromstorageterminalsProjectedshortageoflandforexpansionisdrivingMaasvlakte2projectCostoflandreclamationisexpensiveandwillbebornebytaxpayerinitially(NLG500/m2)罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第12页!

C.3.Opportunities罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第13页!Overcapacityisalong-termproblemthatneedstobeaddressedbyindustrybutmaybehelpedbyGovernmentassistanceFocusesinvestmentonareasofstrengthThereispotentialforindividualplantclosuresRecentmergers/clusterapproachmayleadtonewbinationsOpportunityActionAimStrongestunitsoperatenearfuelcapacityLandwouldbemadeavailableforportexpansionGovernmentIntroduceincentivesforclean-upofformerorsurplussitesBestuseofunusedlandCompaniesoptimisewithininternationalnetworksFocusonstrongpetitiveunitsGovernmentsponsordiscussiononoptimisationAlternativeforunpetitiveunits罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第14页!Thegreatestthreatisthatpressuretoadoptthehighestenvironmentalstandardswillhittheoilindustrytoohard,anderodepublicsupportOver-zealousenvironmentalismcouldbreaktheDutchoilindustryNetherlandsismuchtougheronpolicingmonenvironmentalrulesthanotherEUstatesPressuregroupsandMunicipalitiespetetoappeargreenerImplementationmethodsarenotseenasconsistentwiththetrueneedsOilmaynolongerbeseenasacontributortosociety罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第15页!ExternalpetitionmayincreaseorbeedistortedEUCompetitionGlobalCompetitionCheaperservicesatpetingportsPetropreneursbuycheapassetsEUmemberstatesorunionssupportownweakerrefineriesMiddleEastoilproductandbasechemicalexportsChemicalgrowthattractedtoUSbylowercosts罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第16页!

D.Remendations罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第17页!Astable,visiblegovernmentpolicyfortheoilsectorneedstobeagreed,andexternaltrendsregularlymonitoredSeekconsensusonenvironmenttrade-offsizeofoilindustrytypeofoilactivitieslocationandlogisticscorridorsPubliciseagreedvisionOwnplansLinkageswithowninternationalnetworksImplicationsoflocationsConcreteidesImplicationsofincreaseordecreaseinoilindustrypresenceVROMpartofconsensusLocalauthoritiesbroughtintoconsensusandlocationplanningLongtermpolicydevelopmentEvaluateinternationaloilindustrytrendsProvideowninformationandbenchmarksonpetitivenessofDutchoilindustryBenchmarkcostinfrastructureandchargesVROMCompareotherEUstatesenvironmentregulationsRegularfeedbackMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilIndustryPortsOther罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第18页!Optimisation,includingscopeforeconomicallyviablerationalisation,mustbeaddressedbytheoilindustry-butwithactiveencouragementoftheMinistryExplorescope/benefitsofoptimisationand/orrationalisationOptimisewithinowninternationalnetworksScopeforoptimisationRemovebarrierstorationalisationDiscusschangeofapproachtoclean-upcostsofportlandRevealfullpotentialforreleaseofportlandRevieweffectofanythroughputreductionsExplorecost/benefitofportlandreleasedparedtolandreclamationVROMtoreviewlandclean-uprequirementsBarrierstorationalisationSecuresupportof

authoritiesforrationalisation/optimisationVROMCompetitionauthoritiesLocalauthoritiesEnablingroleObjectofoptimisationistosecurelongtermpetitiveness.SomerationalisationmayalsoreduceemissionsandcongestionMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilIndustryPortsOther罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第19页!RegulationsandproceduresneedtobeconsistentlyappliedandinsomecasessimplifiedDevisestandardpracticeforapplicationofregulationsRemoveconfusionbetweendifferentbodiesofnational/localgovernmentConsistentapplicationOperationalregulationsRegions,municipalitiesandothergovernmentdepartmentstoobservestandardpracticeMakelandusedecisionsforRotterdamsubjecttosingleauthority(Rijnmond)SimplifycustomsandoperationrulesComparetootherEUReducenumberofinspectionsMinistryofEconomicAffairsPortsOtherBunkerfraudTaketoughmeasurestoeradicatefraudandrestorereputation罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第20页!A.ExtractsfromSectorSketch罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第21页!EachsectorintheoilindustryfacesimportantissuesaffectingitspetitivepositionOilrefiningIncreasingcostsofenvironmentalplianceMergers/allianceschangethepetitivesceneOvercapacityandlowreturnsStorageSupportstheinternationalbusinessFostersindependenttradersOvercapacityandlowreturnsTradingStrongroleofrefiningpaniesDependentoncriticalmassofRotterdammarketBunkeringImportantfueloiloutletforrefinersRefinersbeingdominantPipelinesPipelinesandwaterwayskeytoRotterdamlogisticaladvantageDominatedbyprivateorconsortiumownedpipelinesChemicalsImportantsynergieswithoilsectorSectorenteringdownturnLong-termgrowthpotential罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第22页!Environmentalandclean-upregulationswerecentraltoviewsexpressedbymostintervieweesRoleoftheNetherlandsDecision

makingbodiesLandreleaseCurrentsituationIndustryviewpointAlternativeapproachGoesaheadofpetingcountriesonenvironmentalissuesThisunderminespetitivepositionofoilandchemicalindustriesLeadbyinfluencingEUconsensusratherthanbyexampleSignificantregionalandnationalvariationonenvironmentalregulationsCompetitiontobegreenerVariationpreventstheexistenceofa‘levelplayingfield’PlaceenvironmentaldecisionmakingandimplementationinthehandsofonebodyClean-upcostsareaformidableexitbarrierLandcanbereleasedifeconomicallyviableCostsofclean-upshouldbebalancedagainstcostoflandreclamationHowever,thegovernment’swillingnesstodiscussandreachconsensuswasappreciated罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第23页!PressureforrationalisationislikelytocoincidewithtimingofinvestmenttomeetfuturefuelspecificationsOvercapacityFuturefuelspecificationsCurrentsituationIndustryviewpointDespiterecentclosures,thereremainsupto15%overcapacityAsmanyas13EUrefineriesneedtocloseIssueplicatedfurtherbyrecentmergersClean-upcostsremainthebiggestbarriertoexit;socialcostsarealsosignificantTargetspecificationsfor2005require€40bninvestmentacrosstheEUOftheDutchrefineries,onlyEssoandShellarewellplacedtomeet2005specswithoutmajorinvestment罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第24页!C.1.Strengths罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第25页!AllelementsoftheoilsectorarecloselyintegratedChemicalclusterRefiningInternationaltradingportOpenandco-operativegovernmentStorageandBunkeringServices,utilitiesandcontractors罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第26页!TheDutchports,particularlyRotterdam,benefitfromadvantageouslocationsClosetoNorthSeaoilfieldsNaturalportforMEcrudesdestinedforNWEuropeanmarketHollandoneofthemostdenselypopulatedEuropeancountriesPopulationof160millionwithin500kmradiusNavigableinlandwaterwaystomajormarkets罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第27页!OvercapacityhasledtolowprofitabilityintheDutchoilsectorandincreasingpressureforrationalisationRefiningStorageOvercapacityinHollandreflectsthetrendinEUasawholeExportrefinerieswithlowconversioncapacityarevulnerable(althoughspecialitynicheshelpprofitability)LongtermstructuralovercapacityRecentmergersandalliancescreateanuncertainouteforDutchoil罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第28页!Inaddition,theNetherlandsattemptstoleadratherthangowithEuropeanenvironmentallegislationEUhassetnewproductspecificationsButNo‘levelplayingfield’forrefineryemissionsat

EUlevelEnforcementofregulationsstricterinNetherlandsInconsistenciesbetweenNational,RegionalandMunicipalauthoritiesDutchOilSector罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第29页!GovernmentpolicyisseentofocussolelyonRotterdam,partlyasaconsequenceofMainPortPolicyVlissingenOnlyonejettyterminal

(upto120,000dwt)IsolatedfromnaturalgaspipelinesWhenchemicalpaniesfoundRotterdamunfavourable,AntwerpwaschosenaboveotherDutchportsAmsterdamGrowthlimitedbywaterdepth/shipsizeLackofrefininglimitssynergiesbetweenoilandchemicals罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第30页!ThereareopportunitiesfornewbusinessesorsubstantialextensionstoexistingactivitiesEnergyPipelinesElectricityco-generationLowlevelheatcollectionanddistributionCO2collectionforgreenhousesCommoncarriertoreducetransportcostsandmeetenvironmentalaimsEthylenepipelineforchemicalsHighvalue-addedproductionStorageUpgradeproductsforrefineriesunabletomeetenvironmentalspecsHighqualityproductstrategyforexporttopremiummarketsPushforhighershareofchemicalsgrowthUseexcessstoragetoholdstrategicstocksforwholeEU罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第31页!

C.4.Threats罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第32页!HighcostsassociatedwithRotterdamarecurrentlyoutweighedbyadvantages.Shiftsinthelabourrate-productivitybalancecouldchangethisPortduesontonnagebasishasledtohighestcrudeimportcostsinEuropeHighconstructioncostsOneofthehighestlabourratesinEuropeHighsocialcostsCompetitivelogisticsProximitytomarketplaceHighlabourproductivitySkilledworkforce/tradingexperienceLowportlandrentals罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第33页!Substitutionandnewtechnologycouldcausea‘surprise’dropinoildemand,butnosignificantchangelikelybefore2005TransportCommonrailtechnologywillmakedieselsubstantiallymoreefficientHybridenginesBiomassethanolcouldsubstitutemogasanddieselFuelcelltechnologynosignificantimpactbefore2005IncreaseindieselmarketsharemaydistortrefineryeconomicsLPG/CNGsubstitutionofmogasanddieselThecurrentverylowcrudeoilpriceswilldelayanysubstitutioneffectsOtherusesGas(fromRussia/NorthSea)willsubstituteheatingoilinBelgiumandGermanyRenewablefuelsinexportmarketsFOforelectricityGOhome/mercialheatingLFOforindustry罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第34页!FourkeyissuesneedtobeaddressedtoensurelongterminternationalpetitivenessoftheoilindustryLongtermpetitivenessStableindustrialpolicyAffordableenvironmentalpolicyActiononinfrastructurecostsOptimisationofoilindustryThereisalsoscopeforstreamliningproceduresandencouragingnewvalue-addedactivities罗兰贝格荷兰石油SWOT分析共38页，您现在浏览的是第35页!EnvironmentalprinciplesforoilshouldbalancetheneedforpetitivenesswithDutchenvironmentneedsAgreeapproachwithVROMMonitorproposalsthataddextracostabovepetitorsEnsureonlyimplementedifenvironmentimpacthighReviewexistingtargetsforoilindustrySeekchangesifunduepetitivepenaltyProvidecredibleestimatesofpliancecostsProvideparisonswithpetingareasAfford

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