XXXX第三章经济核算与环境

第三章经济核算与环境

economicaccountingandenvironment第一节经济核算第二节经济增长与人类福利第三节经济增长与环境2023/1/1322第一节经济核算

economicaccounting一、经济部门分类

economicsectorclassification很多国家都有自己的经济部门分类mostcountrieshaveaclassificationsystemfortheireconomicsectorsus(previouslysic–standardindustrialclassification)nownaics(northamericanindustrialclassificationsystem)un(sna–systemofnationalaccounts)2023/1/1333经济部门分类economicsectorclassification分类有利于thisclassificationfacilitates经济产出和投入的系统核算（国民收入和产品账户）systematicaccountingoftheoutputoftheeconomyanduseoftheoutput(nationalincomeandproductaccountsnipa)监测和报告绩效，如gdpmonitoringandreportingofperformancemeasuressuchasgrossdomesticproduct比较和基准comparisonandbenchmarking规划和预测[投入产出分析]planningandforecasting[input-outputanalysis]2023/1/1344行业分类majorindustriesinchinaa农林牧渔业agriculture,forestry,fishing,andhuntingb采矿业miningc制造业

manufacturingd电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业utilitiesandsupplyindustryonelectricity,heat,gasandwatere建筑业

constructionf批发和零售业wholesaletradeandretailtradeg交通运输、仓储和邮政业transportation,storageandpostalservicesi信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业transferinformation,softwareanditservices2023/1/135j金融业

financialindustryk房地产业

realestatel租赁和商务服务业leasingandbusinessservicesm科学研究和技术服务业scientificandtechnicalservicesn水利、环境和公共设施管理业water,environmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementindustryo居民服务、修理和其他服务业residentservices,repairsandotherservicesp教育

educationq卫生和社会工作healthandsocialworkr文化、体育和娱乐业culture,sportsandentertainments公共管理、社会保障和社会组织publicadministration,socialsecurityandsocialorganizationst国际组织internationalorganizations52023/1/1366a农林牧渔业agriculture,forestry,fishing,andhunting01 农业011 谷物种植0111 稻谷种植 0112 小麦种植 0113 玉米种植 0119 其他谷物种植

012 豆类、油料和薯类种植 013 棉、麻、糖、烟草种植 014 蔬菜、食用菌及园艺作物种植 015 水果种植 016 坚果、含油果、香料和饮料作物种植 017 0170 中药材种植 019 0190 其他农业2023/1/13702 林业021 林木育种和育苗 0211 林木育种0212 林木育苗022 0220 造林和更新023 0230 森林经营和管护 024 木材和竹材采运0241 木材采运 0242 竹材采运 025 林产品采集0251 木竹材林产品采集0252 非木竹材林产品采集2023/1/1388二、投入产出分析input-outputanalysis经济是由复杂而相互依存的部分（农业、制造业、服务业、政府、消费者、其它国家等）组成的theeconomyconsistsofcomplexandinterdependentsectors(ag-mfg-service-govt-consumers-othercountries)1、投入产出分析的概念★投入产出分析是一种运用会计和简单的模型来表达农业、制造业、服务业、政府、消费者、其它国家等相互依存的经济关系input-outputanalysisisanaccountingandsimplemodelingtechniquetorepresenttheseeconomicinterdependencies区域投入产出分析是在区域水平上的投入产出分析regionalinput-outputanalysisisioanalysisdoneataregionallevel2023/1/1399以gdp作为衡量经济效果和福利的问题

problemswithgdpasameasureofeconomicperformanceandwellbeing包括了防御性支出includesdefensiveexpenditurese.g.fluepidemicorhurricanesorpollutioncontrolexpendituresorwaronterror没扣除自然、社会或人力资本doesnotdeductdepreciationofnatural,social,orhumancapital[onlymanmadecapitalisdepreciatedincalculatingndp]ores,fossilfuelstockreductionmarineresourceloss,deforestation,airandwaterqualitychangeslossofinstitutions,skills没包括所有非市场商品和服务excludesallnon-marketgoodsandservicesenvironmental/ecosystemserviceshomeservicesleisure第二节经济增长与人类福利

economicgrowthandhumanwellbeing一、贫富二、贫富差异的原因三、推动经济增长的因素四、经济增长的愿景五、衡量福利的非经济指标六、需要与欲望一、贫富therichandthepoor★经济增长的关键点keyideasoneconomicgrowth一个时期内的生产力productionwithinaperiod–howtomodel跨时期的增长growthacrossperiodsbycapitalaccumulationbytechnologyraisingproductivity二、贫富差异的原因★

whyaresomecountriesrichandsomepoor?1、自然资源和条件差异naturalresources&conditions2、增长率不同growthratewhyhavesomegrownmorethanothers?2023/1/1313whyeconomicgrowthseemsdesirable:

1.人均寿命与人均gdp的关系longevityandgdp/capita2023/1/13142.婴幼儿死亡率与人均gdp的关系

infantmortalityandgdp/capita

2023/1/13153.成人识字率与人均gdp的关系

literacyandgdp/capita

2023/1/13164、幸福感与人均收入

happinessandincomepercapita2023/1/1317三、经济增长的趋动力★

whatdriveseconomicgrowth?p146一定时期内的生产函数取决于资本存量和劳动力withinaperiod:productionfunctioncapitalstock,labor不同时期则取决于changesbetweenperiods储蓄、投资和资本积累savings,investment&capitalaccumulation技术进步technologicalchangep156endogenous(functionofr&dinvestmentinknowledgeandhumancapital)exogenous2023/1/13181、经济增长模型modelingeconomicgrowth:

1)生产函数productionfunctionp147nationalincome=output(y)y=f(capital,labor,naturalresources) -treatnrasaspecialcategory(ofcapital)y=f(k,l,r)y=kα×lβ×rδ

cobb-douglasproductionfunction(α+β+δ=1forconstantreturnstoscale)y=k0.2×l0.7×r0.1(解释模型illustrativemodel)2023/1/13192)储蓄、投资和资本积累

savings,investmentandcapitalaccumulationp149s=sys=savingsratest=iti=investmentkt=kt-1+it

moreyousave,largeriscapitalstocknextyear,hencehigheryouroutputifsavingsrate>populationgrowththencapitalperworkerisincreasing,somoreoutputpercapitabutdecliningmarginalproductivityofcapital,sorateofincomegrowthdeclining(duetoshapeofproductionfunction)2023/1/13203、技术与效率

technologyandproductivityp155生产函数 y=k0.2×l0.7

×r0.1

加上效率因素(a,b,c) y=ak0.2

×bl0.7

×cr0.1

如果a,borc≠1.0，结果会怎么样？whatifa,borc≠1.0?2023/1/1321productivityandgrowthrate假设=a×b×c,那么: y=(k0.2×l0.7

×r0.1

)如果低效率国家le的=1，而高效率国家me的=1.2那么在相同的初始状态l,k,r和储蓄率下，高效率国家有高产出和高收入sameinitiall,k,randsavingsratemewillalwayshavehigheroutput/income2023/1/1322timeyle(=1.0)me(=1.2)incomegrowthratesformore-efficient(me)andless-efficient(le)productivityyt=t(kt0.2xlt0.7xrt0.1)2023/1/1323whatdrivesefficiency?外生性增长exogenousefficiencygrowthluckybreaks:goodweather,etc.内源性增长endogenousefficiencygrowth新技术newtechnology改善管理improvedmanagementt=f(kt-1);intextbook:t=kt-10.62023/1/1324recap:driversofgdpgrowth加大投入moreinputuse(l,k,r)增加资本积累morecapitalaccumulated(k)提高效率moreefficiency(t)endogenousefficiencygrowthisbasedonkt-1sohowtoencouragethese?2023/1/1325激励与行为incentivesandbehaviorwhatmakespeoplesavemore?文化习俗culturalnorms储蓄收益likelihoodofgainfromsaving利率interestrates(returnoncapitalownership)税率taxrates回报的波动性volatilityofreturns产权安全性securityofpropertyrights2023/1/1326一、环境影响恒等式ipatmodelp1801、环境影响恒等式i=p×a×ti=environmentalimpact(resourceextractionandwasteinsertion)p=人口数量populationa=富裕程度affluence(percapitaconsumptionorgdp/p)t=技术水平technology(envimpact/unitconsumption)第三节经济增长与环境

economicgrowthandtheenvironment2023/1/1327exampleforipatmodelglobalemissionsofco22000年，p=6billion,a=$7000,t=0.00055tons/$i=6×7000×0.00055i=23.1billiontonsi=patisanidentity!它指出了经济活动是对环境影响最直接的决定因素2023/1/13282、ipat情景分析

scenarioanalysisusingipat人口增长populationgrowth(functionoffertility)经济增长economicgrowth(affluencegrowth)技术进步technologychange2023/1/13293、技术需求whattechnologychangesareneededtokeepconstantco2emissions?t*2050=23100/(p2050*a2050)low/low=0.4638high/high=0.0772disaggregatedipatii=patjjcanbespecificpollutants,icanbespecificindustries2023/1/1330二、经济增长与环境关系的模拟

modelinggrowthandtheenvironmentproductionfunctiony=kα×lβ×rδ

savings/investmentfunctions=sys=savingsratest=iti=investmentkt=kt-1+it

rwasnaturalresourceuse2023/1/13311、自然资源对经济增长产生制约了吗？

donaturalresourcesimposelimitstoeconomicgrowth?自然资源naturalresources不可再生资源nonrenewableresources(fixedstocks)可再生资源renewableresources(thereisalimitonmaximumsustainableharvest)自然资源能被投资和劳力替代吗？canrbesubstitutedwithkandl?技术进步的作用？whatabouttechnologicalprogress?2023/