从顺风到逆流：2023年财富管理的韧性增长-麦肯锡

FinancialServicesFromtailwindstocrosscurrents:ResilientgrowthinwealthmanagementsyhssslsshCulminationofaneraofeasygrowthand(apparent)strengthlds1TheFederalReserveraisedratesby50basispointsinDecember2022,afterfourstraight75-basis-pointincreases.Andsomeanalystsexpecta25-basis-pointincreaseinFebruary(seeTimSmart,“Fedminutesshowcommitmenttokeepinterestrateshighin2023,”U.S.News&WorldReport,January4,2023).2SeeClaraAldeaGildeGomez,RobertByrne,SeanO’Connell,andIgorYasenovets,“StrategicM&AinUSbanking:Creatingvalueinuncertaintimes,”McKinsey,November2,2022.“USwealthmanagement:Agrowthagendaforthecomingdecade,”McKinsey,February16,2022.4MSCIWorldIndex.2Fromtailwindstocrosscurrents:ResilientgrowthinwealthmanagementFromtailwindstocrosscurrents:Resilientgrowthinwealthmanagement3xhGrowthconcentratedamongtopperformersededtAfteradecade-longbullmarket,theUSwealthmanagementindustryentered2022inastrongposition.0.30.320.620asnningSource:CerulliAssociates;publicilings;McKinseyWealthManagementSurveyetsdhibitUSwealthmanagementoperatingrevenuesoutgrewcostsonlyslightlyduringadecadeoffavorablemarkets.Industryoperatingrevenues,¹$billion242466.4%Industryoperatingcosts,²$billion0216%Includesrevenuesattributabletowealthmanagementclients—primarilyadvisoryfees,tradingcommissions,mutualfundtrailers,netinterestincome,andlendingfees.Totaloperationalexpensesexcludingextraordinaryitems.Source:CerulliAssociates;publicilings;McKinseyWealthManagementSurvey4Fromtailwindstocrosscurrents:ResilientgrowthinwealthmanagementFromtailwindstocrosscurrents:Resilientgrowthinwealthmanagement5uesdelsrateof9percent,comparedwith4percentaverage2022:Enteringchoppywaterswithnetflowsin2016–21).(temporary)windinthesailforsomeThecurrentmacroeconomicvolatilitywillThegrowthinthesizeandcomplexityoftheundoubtedlyposechallenges,yetthewealthindustry’scostbaserepresentsavulnerabilityformanagementindustryhasprovenresilientthuswealthmanagers.Asassetshavegrownoverthefar.Ouranalysisofperformanceofpublicwealthpastdecade,somemanagementteamshavenotmanagementfirmsinthefirstthreequartersoffocusedonexpensediscipline—acommonoversight2022suggestsclientassetssharplydeclinedwhenthereislittleurgency.Duringthattime,by16percentandnetflowsmoderatedfromoperatingmodelshavebecomemorecomplex,and2021highs(Exhibit3).ButrevenuegrowthforginshaveibitClientassetsdeclinedsharply,butmanyfirmssustainedgrowthandevenimprovedmarginsduetorisinginterestrates.%growth,Revenuegrowth(annualized),Operatingmargin,%(change,percentagepoints)igitaldirectwealth516rveytalent.nesresr6Fromtailwindstocrosscurrents:ResilientgrowthinwealthmanagementFromtailwindstocrosscurrents:Resilientgrowthinwealthmanagement7Winnersthroughresiliencetakeimmediatestepsinacrisisandthenexpandtheirlead.Totalshareholderreturns(TSR),globalcompanies,¹2007–09inancialcrisis, ence Bottom-quintilecompanies S&P500DownturnDownturnRecoveryGrowth350300250200150bps50020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017400Calculatedasaverageofsubsectormedianperformance.Includes1,140companies(excludinginancialservicessectorandrealestateinvestmenttrusts).WinnersthroughresiliencedeinedastopgeometricmeanTSRquintilebysector.Source:CPAnalytics;MSCI;McKinseyanalysisAlessonfromhistory:Challengecreatesopportunity7“USwealthmanagement:Agrowthagendaforthecomingdecade,”McKinsey,February16,2022.8Forthefullanalysis,see“Something’scoming:HowUScompaniescanbuildresilience,surviveadownturn,andthriveinthenextcycle,”McKinsey,September16,2022.9Theanalysisexcludesfinancialservicesfirms.Theglobalfinancialcrisiswasdrivenbybankingandrealestatecrises,soperformanceacrossfirmswasbasedlargelyonriskexposures(eg,subprime)orgovernmentintervention.Asasubsector,wealthmanagementfirmsaretoosmalltoanalyzeasaclassindependently.smettle.lesLookingahead:Resettingforresilientgrowth8Fromtailwindstocrosscurrents:ResilientgrowthinwealthmanagementFromtailwindstocrosscurrents:Resilientgrowthinwealthmanagement9eirrhibitWealthmanagersneedtofocusonbothresiliencyandgrowth.culltherestressstructuralressstructuraldeepenclientrelationshipsMaintainpricingdiscipline¹BuildnewbusinessesclosetothecoreorinadjacenciesithdiscountinginstitutionalizedleadgenerationsystemgnoregrettofhighpotentialthprioritiesnhInvestforgrowthgyg¹¹“EquityCommissionPricingMythsandRealities,”PriceMetrixInsights,September2011.¹²Stayorstray:Puttingsomenumbersbehindclientretention,PriceMetrixbyMcKinsey,December2013;PoonehBaghai,VladGolyk,AgostinaSalvo,andJillZucker,“NorthAmericanwealthmanagement:Moneyinmotion,butnotalwaystothebottomline,”McKinsey,December17,2020.10Fromtailwindstocrosscurrents:ResilientgrowthinwealthmanagementMcKins