群邑：2022年年底全球广告预测报告

2022AReportFromGroupM,WPP’sMediaInvestmentGroup003062DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIINTRODUCTIONTOP-OF-MINDSIXMONTHS.Notonlyduetotherecentwall-to-wallnewscoverageofthecriticalroleitplaysinunderpinningthebusinessofsocialmedia,butalsobecauseinaworldbesetbyeconomicuncertainty,advertisinghasbeenthrustintothespotlightasasortofbellwetherforBigTechandretailcommerce.Helduptothatlight,themessageisnotaltogethernegative.Wenowbelievethatglobaladvertisinggrowthfor2022willbe6.5%,excludingU.S.politicaladvertising(whatwecall“underlyinggrowth”).ThisislowerthanourJuneforecastwhenweestimated8.4%growth;however,thisisprimarilytheeffectofloweredChinaexpectations.Ex-China,growthisforecastat8.1%for2022.Atthemidpointof2022itwasdifficulttogaugewhethertheearlysignsofeconomicslowdownwouldresultinmoremildorsevereimpactstoconsumerspending,globalsupplychainsand,ultimately,advertisingrevenue.3Clearly,inflationhasprovedmoreintractable,ashasthewarinUkraine.Andyet,onlyhalfofthe62marketswetrackdowngradedtheirgrowthforecastfor2022.One-third,21markets,upgradedtheirexpectations,and10marketsmadenochangefromtheJuneforecasts.It’salsoimportanttonotethat,whencomparinglastDecember’sforecasttothisDecember’s,theU.S.dollarhasappreciatedconsiderablythroughout2022,whichincrementallyskewsgrowthdownwardduetothehigherweightoftheU.S.advertisingmarketandbringsdowntheoverallsizeoftheglobalindustry,atleastwhendenominatedinU.S.dollars.3DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIINTRODUCTIONNotably,onlytwoofthe62marketswetrackareforecastingnegativegrowthinnominalterms(thatis,withoutadjustingforinflation)in2022.Amajorityofmarkets,35,areforecastinggrowth,albeitbelowtheaverageglobalrateofinflationthisyear,whichis8.8%pertheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)October2022WorldEconomicOutlook.Theother25marketsareprojectinggrowthaboveglobalinflation,andwhilesomestillfallbelowinflationlevelsintheirowncountry(e.g.,ArgentinaandTurkey),16marketsareoutpacinglevelsofinflationathome,includingAustralia,Brazil,India,Kenya,Malaysia,Mexico,SouthAfricaandSouthKorea.Lookingatnextyear,whentheIMFexpectsglobalinflationtodropto6.5%,weseeasimilartrendwith26marketspredictingadvertisinggrowthaboveaverageglobalinflation,32marketsforecastingnominalgrowthbelowtherateofinflation,andjustfourmarketspredictingnominaldecline(Austria,Italy,NewZealandandSpain).Ourglobalforecastcallsforgrowthof5.9%in2023.4DSrexampleGermanyFranceandtheUKalldowngraded2022TVgrowthfrompositiveinourJuneforecasttonegativeinourend-of-yearforecast.ThesemarketsareexpectedtofacesteepenergycostincreasesandshortagesinlightofthewarinUkraine.China’sout-of-home(OOH)figurefor2022issettodeclinemorethan34.3%afterthecountry’szero-COVIDpolicyhasledtonumerousrestrictivelockdownsacrossthecountry.Forthemostpart,wehaveheardexecutivesatsomeofthelargestglobaladvertisersvoiceinflationandcostoflivingcrisesbutrevenuehasremainedrelativelyresilientaspaniespassonaddedcoststoconsumersandsalescontinuetoholdup.Peoplebroadlyareabletofindjobs,andnewbusinesscreation,whilefallinginthemostrecentperiodinsomemarkets,hasbeenrobust.Thesenewbusinessesarelikelyadvertisingathigherlevelsthanthebusinessestheyhavereplacedintheeconomy.4TOGROW.4Anddespiterecentheadlineswarningofabustanddigitaladvertisingslumpweexpectbothformsofdigitaladvertisingtogrowdoubledigitsin2022,ex-China.5662BLSandNBERDECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIUNCERTAINTIMESDuringtheseperiodsafterDuringtheseperiodsafterWorldWarIIandtheKoreanWar,theUSeconomywasinastateoftransition—weaningoffthegovernmentdrivenindustrialproductionandstimulusmoneythatflowedintothemarket.PricesintheU.S.increased15%inthefirsthalfof19461aloneaswar-timepricecontrolswerelifted,returningsoldiersdroveupdemandandglobalshortagesofgoodsrestrictedsupplySoundfamiliarNotablyintheunemploymentrateneverroseabove%,andtheaveragefor1953(followingtheKoreanWarwas2.9%,eventuallypeakingat6.1%inSeptemberof19542aftertherecessionended.ThesewerealsofairlymildrecessionswithUSGDPdecliningin1947and0.6%in1954,accordingtotheBureauofEconomicAnalysis.OnecouldmaketheargumentthatweareinaglobalpostCOVID-19“war”periodmarkedbytheafter-effectsofgovernmentfiscalpolicyandmajorsupplychaindisruptions,andnotinadot-combubbletyperecession.That'swhywearenotseeingtheuniversaldownturn—notyetanyway—of2008oreven2001,despitemostcompaniesremindingusthattheyareproceedingwithanabundanceofcaution.Itshouldbenotedthat2022isalsomarkedbyarealandcontinuingwarinEurope.Individualmarketsintheregionarefacingmorechallengingtrendsthroughtheendofthisyearandintonextwithnoendinsight.ofeasyprecedentsinthecurrentmacroeconomicenvironmentareposingsignificantchallengesforcompaniesthat,likepeople,don’ttendtoenjoyambiguity.Unliketheglobalfinancialcrisisof2007to2009ortheoilembargorecessionoftheearly1970s,whichwerebothmarkedbyhighinflationandhighunemploymentinmanynations,onemustventurebacktothe1940sand‘50stofindaplausibleanalogforourcurrenteconomicmalaise.Whilenocomparisonisperfect,itcanbeillustrativetolookattwopost-warrecessionsintheU.S.whenassessingthecurrentenvironment.Astheworld’slargesteconomyandhometomanyoftheworld'slargestadvertisersandadsellers,theseU.S.examplesprovideauseful,iflimited,read.7DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIUNCERTAINTIMES7Almostuniversally(outsideofChinaandJapan),inflationhassoaredoverthepastyear.ThelatestheadlinefigurefortheU.K.(asofOctober)is11.1%,measuredasyear-over-yearchange.3InLatvia,LithuaniaandEstonia,thefiguretopped20%inOctober.4IntheU.S.,inflationgrowthhasmoderatedfollowingsteepsuccessiveinterestratehikesbytheU.S.FederalReserve,andthelatestOctoberprintof7.7%waslowerthanexpectations.5Persistentinflationisexpectedtoposeacontinuedheadwindforconsumersandmanufacturersthroughatleastthemiddleof2023.ConsensusestimatesforinflationaggregatedbyfinancialdataproviderRefinitivdopointtosignificantimprovementsbytheendof2023,albeitstillabovecentralbanktargetsinmarketsliketheU.S.,U.K.andGermany.Deceleratinginflationoverthenextseveralmonthscouldmeansustainedconsumerspendingandtheavoidanceofanadvertisingrecession,arrivingnonetoosoonasthehigherhouseholdsavingswementionedinourJuneforecast,whicheasedearlyinflationpressuresattheendof2021,havenowlargelyevaporated.IntheEurozone,thehouseholdsavingsrateforthesecondquarterofthisyeardroppedtopre-pandemiclevelsand,intheU.S.,theSeptembersavingsrateof3.1%isthelowestit’sbeensinceAprilof2008(otherthanJuneofthisyearwhentheratedippedto3%beforereboundingtraliashouseholdsavingsrateforthesecondquarterofthisyearfellto8.7%from11.1%inthesameperiodof2021.7SouthKorea’shouseholdsavingsrate(orsurplusrate)was34%inthesecondquarterofthisyear,downfromthefirstquarter,butupfrom28%ayearago.8Asmentionedabove,thisspateofhighinflationhasn’tcomewithuniversallyhighunemploymentandmixedwagegainsaddtotheambiguityaroundwhatsortofrecessionmayormaynotbeathand.InOctober,theIMFforecastChina’sGDPgrowthat3.2%for2022,thesecondlowestlevelsince1977.Thislikelyhasmoretodowiththegovernment’srestrictivezero-COVIDpolicyandassociatedlockdownsthantypicalrecessiondriverslikeunemploymentwhichstoodat5.4%inJuly(albeitwitharecord-highfigureforyouthemploymentofaccordingtotheNationalBureauofStatistics).IntheU.S.,recentwagegainsreversed.Octoberdatashowedayearoveryeardeclineof3.7%inrealaverageweeklyearningsbutthisiscomingattheendofadecade-longperiodwherethelowestearnerssawwagegrowthoftenaheadofinflation.Thelabormarkethasremainedstrikinglyrobustdespiteinterestrateincreases,withunemploymentintheU.S.standingat3.7%asofOctober.9UnemploymentRate33U.K.ONS,Nov.20224StatisticsLithuania,Nov.2022OfficialStatisticsofLatvia,Nov.2022StatisticsEstonia,Nov.20225U.S.BLS,Nov.20226U.S.FederalReserve7ABS8Kostat9U.S.BLS,Nov.20228DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIUNCERTAINTIMESPersistentinflationisexpectedtoposeacontinuedheadwindforconsumersandmanufacturersthroughatleastthemiddleof2023.ConsensusestimatesforinflationaggregatedbyfinancialdataproviderRefinitivdopointtosignificantimprovementsbytheendof2023,albeitstillabovecentralbanktargetsinmarketsliketheU.S.,U.K.andGermany.DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIUNCERTAINTIMESThedeclineinunemploymentratesdoesn’tmeantherehaven’tbeenworkforcereductions.Throughoutthesecondhalfof2022,therehavebeenhiringfreezesandlayoffsreportedatanumberofadvertisingcompanies,andwhile,inthecaseofTwitterthescaleofthelayoffsmayhaveadetrimentalimpactontheplatform’sabilitytoserviceitscustomers,forthemostparttheselabormarketcontractionsareneithersurprisingnoradirectread-throughtothestateofadvertisingitself.MarkZuckerberg,CEOofMeta,saidithimselfinaletterregardingtherecentlayoffs.Hehadexpectedtheconsumerbehaviorandbusinessconditionsofthepandemiceratocontinueandhiringatthesocialmedianetworkrampeduptosupportthatoverthelast12months.Combined,Meta,GoogleandAmazongrewadvertisingrevenueby39%inonaconstantcurrencybasis,andthetideliftedTVaswell,whichreversedsixyearsofflatordecliningrevenuestogrow13%intheyear.Butasgovernmentstimulusfundshavedriedupandaspeoplereturnedtospendingontravelinganddiningoutratherthangamingandeatingathome,theadvertisinggrowthaccompanyingthosepandemicconditionshasdeceleratedandresultedinoperatingandcapitalexpendituresthathavegrownmorequicklythanrevenuein022.Hence,layoffs.Broaderlayoffsandhiringfreezescanalsobeseenasasignthatcentralbankmonetarytighteningefforts,i.e.,interestrateincreases,arehavingtheintendedeffect:Asthecostofcapitalgoesup,corporateinvestmentslows,coolingdemandandtheeconomyatlarge(orsothethinkinggoes).eareprojectingnominalornoninflationadjustedglobaladvertisingrevenuegrowthin2022of6.5%,asignificantdecelerationfromthe24.4%growthobservedlastyearandadowngradefromourJuneforecastof8.4%growth.ThedifferencebetweenourcurrentestimatesandtheJuneforecastcanprimarilybeexplainedbychangedexpectationsforChinawhichhasgonefrom3.3%growthto0.6%decline,andfortheU.S.,wherewenowpredict7.1%growth(excludingpoliticaladvertisingversus10.1%inJune.Thesetwomarketswillmakeup.5%ofalladvertisingrevenuein2022,andloweredexpectationsthereforeimpactglobaltotals.Oftheothertop10trackedmarkets,fivewillgrowaheadofinflationAustraliaBrazilFranceIndiaandJapan),whilefourwillgrowslightlybehindcountry-levelheadlineinflation(theU.K.,USCanadaandGermanyInadditiontoChinaonlySriLanka,whereacost-of-livingcrisispersistsaftermassprotestsledtothepresident’sresignationinJuly,isexpectedtorecordanominaldecline. 9advertisingspendingofdigitalendemics,(Sales&MarketingExpenseGrowth)DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFOadvertisingspendingofdigitalendemics,(Sales&MarketingExpenseGrowth)Itcanbeusefulgiventhesignificantupanddownswingsofthelasttwoyears,tolookatadvertisinggrowthonathree-yearcompoundedbasis,essentiallysmoothingoutthevolatilityofthepandemic.AnddespiteheadlinesportendingthedoomofBigTechandadvertising,weestimatethethree-yearcompoundannualgrowthrateCAGRfortotaladvertisingat8.8%for2019-2022,practicallyidenticaltothe8.7%rateforthepreviousthreeyears(2016–2019).Thatsaid,ofthethreemajorseculardriversofadvertisinggrowthwediscussedinourJuneforecast(Chineseadvertisers,digitalendemicsandnewbusinessformation),twoarecurrentlyundersomeduress.WehavenotedtheoftenoverlookedandhardtoquantifyimpactofChinesecompaniesadvertisingoverseas.Forthelastsixyears,MetahaslistedChinaasoneofthetopsourcesofrevenue,despitethesocialnetworknothavinganyuserswithinChinaAmazonandWalmarthavealsobeenbeneficiariesofChinesemanufacturerssellinggoodsoninternationale-commerceplatforms.TheextenttowhichChineseadvertiserswillcontinuetofueladvertisingrevenuegrowthoverandaboveglobalGDPgrowthlikelydependsontwofactors:thedomesticmarket(howwellconsumerspendingholdsupthroughongoingCOVID-19lockdownsandahousingmarketslump)andtheextenttowhichtheChinesegovernmentcontinuestolevyfinesandimposeregulationsoninternetgiantslikeAlibabaBaiduTencentandBytedance.Ifthedomesticmarketslows,butsodogovernmentscrutinyandfinesforChineseadvertisers,thenwemayexpectmoregrowthinoverseasadvertising(assumingportsandfactoriesremainabletoproduceandtransportgoods).IfdomesticCOVID-19lockdownspersistintonextyear,weareunlikelytoseegrowthatthesamepaceofCOVID-19lockdownspersistintonextyear,weareunlikelytoseegrowthatthesamepaceofthelastsixyears.DIGITALENDEMICSWebelieveanotherseculardriverofgrowthhasbeentheriseanddisproportionateDigitalEndemicSub-Segmentsdefinedascompanieswhosebusinessisprimarilyonline.ForourpurposesweincludeAmazoninthisdefinition,despitetheincreasinglyphysicalpresencetheyoccupy.Otherdigitalendemicsincludeonlinetravelbooking,dating,sportsbetting,ridehailingandfintechcompanies.Thesecompaniestendtobehigherintensityadvertisers—thatistheyspendmoreonmarketingandadvertisingthanthebusinessestheyhavereplacedintheirsectors,sometimespouringupwardsof50%ofrevenueintosalesandmarketingactivities.DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIUNCERTAINTIMESgitalendemicscouldaffordthisgrowatallcostsmindsetwhilethecostofcapitalwascheap,butascentralbanksgloballyhaveraisedinterestratesthisyear,venturecapitaldcompaniesandnewlypubliccompanieshavehadtobecomemoreconservative,andwehaveseenasignificantdecelerationinsalesandmarketingexpensesacrossthiscategoryThereisalsoanelementofmaturationamongthisgroupthathaslikelyledtodecelerationinadvertisinggrowth.italendemicadvertisersexcludingthetravelandsportsbettingcompaniesthathavemaintainedsalesandmarketingbudgetgrowththisyear)willhavealmostcertainlybeenmissedbythosepublishersreportingsofteradvertisingrevenueoradvertiserpullback.Metamentionedearlyintheyearthate-commercewastheirlargestsector,andretaildigitalendemicsrecordedyear-over-yeardeclinesinsalesandmarketingexpensefromthethirdquarterof2021throughthesecondquarterof2022.10Eurostat,November202211ONS,November2022DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIUNCERTAINTIMESNewlyformedbusinesses,whichwebelieveareathirdkeydriverofadvertisingspending,haveproventocontinuetoberemarkablyresilient.IntheU.S.,thenumberofnewbusinessesformedthroughthefirstninemonthsofwhiledownfrompandemic-erahighs,wasstill45%higherthanpre-pandemiclevels.IntheEuropeanUnion,newbusinessregistrationswerealsoup3.5%inthefirstninemonthsof2022versusthesameperiodin2019.10However,intheU.K.,wenotethatnewbusinessbirthsarenowbehindlevelsseeninandbusinessdeathshaveincreasedpointingtotheweakereconomicclimatethere.11U.S.QuarterlyBusinessApplicationsNonSeasonallyAdjustedDECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTI2023OUTLOOKWenowexpectglobaladvertisingtogrow5.9%in2023,behindtheIMF’sexpectationforglobalinflationof6.5%andadowngradefromour6.4%Juneestimate.Ofthelargestmarketsresponsibleforthemajorityofgrowthintheprevioustwoyears,theeconomicoutlookisdecidedlymixed.IntheU.K.,GDPiscurrentlyforecasttodecline0.6%in2023,whileestimatesforinflationremainaboveBankofEnglandtargetsat6.5%.InChina,estimatesplaceGDPgrowthat5.0%(animprovementover2022’sexpected3.1%growth).IntheU.S.,thelikelihoodofarecessionfellto54%inmid-November,downfromanOctoberhighof64%.12BarringanescalationofthewarinUkraineoranotherCOVID-19-sizedglobaldisaster,weexpectgrowthtoclimbmildlyin2024to6.2%beforereturningtoatrendofdeceleratingmid-single-digitgrowththrough2027.GlobalAdvertisingGrowth(%)globaladvertisingtogrowWeglobaladvertisingtogrow1212ConsensusestimatesaggregatedbyRefinitiv5.9in2023.1313CSMDECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIMAINSTREAMAsthequalityoflinearTVcontentAsthequalityoflinearTVcontentdiminished...onanylargeadvertisersmarketingplanduetoitsunmatchedabilitytodrivereach.BrandbuildershaveusedTVtodriveawarenessandgettheirmessageinbrands'preferencestofrontofnewpotentialcustomersbrands'preferencestotoloyalbuyers.Andbecauseofthe(relatively)highappearnexttoprofessionalcontentfaded.”productioncostofcreatingTVappearnexttoprofessionalcontentfaded.”Toanswerthesequestions,wecanturnfirsttoChinawherelinearTVsawaveragereachforalldaypartsfallto46%in2021,13severelylimitingitsabilitytofulfillthereach-basedgoalsofmarketers.Thesolutionformanymarketersintheneartermismixedreach—activatingandasuringcampaignsacrossnotonlylinearandconnectedTVbutalsoonlinevideoandOOHvideoinventory.diditgettothispointInthelastfivetoyears,asthequalityoflinearTVtdiminishedandasTVadloadlimitationsandnewsubscription-basedstreamingserviceslimitedavailableinventorybrandsstruggledtoreachaudiencesinthemediumTheneedtoappearnexttoprofessionalcontentdedandmarketersembracedsocialcommercesiteseringmillionsofpotentialbrandambassadorsallcreatingshort-formvideo.Withproductioncostsreducedintheswitchtoshort-formcontent,thedoorwasopentoadvertisersofallsizes,includingthe“storebrands”oftheplatformsthemselves.Andascampaignsfragmentedacrossnumerouscreatorsincentivizedtodrivesales,anthemicbrandmessagesgavewaytoperformance-basedpersonalization.Thischaracterizationsimplifiedasitis,hasimplicationsformarketsworldwide.WeestimatethatthevastmajorityofadvertisinginChinahasaperformance,ratherthanabrandbuildinggoalhabituatingmanymarketersinChinatotheclosedloopmeasurementfoundonsocialcommercesiteslikePinduoduo.Intrackingmetricssuchaslikesrepostsanddirectsales,marketershavefoundapartialsubstituteforreachandfrequency,longreliedonasleadingindicatorsofsales.CHwhathappensifitbecomesimpossibletoreachamajorityofthepopulationinygivenmarketwithtelevisionbasedOrifcontentproductionismocratizedandatomizedtotheextentthatperformancecampaignsvastlyrbrandcampaignsandshortformamateurvideocreatorsreplaceTV’slturaltouchstones2the2thehomesintheU.S.”By2025,allpayTVproviderscombinedwillreachfewerthan/DECEMBER2022•THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFOBy2025,allpayTVproviderscombinedwillreachfewerthan/Itisnothardtoseethepatternbeginningtoforminothermarketsaswell.IntheU.S.,intheclosingmonthsof22,streamingprovidershaveclaimedvirtuallyallthemost-watchedTVprogramsotherthanlivesports,whichisstilldominatedbylinearnetworksandcablechannels.asAppleAmazonandothertraditionalplayersenterthemarketforsportsrights,eventhislastbastionoflinearviewershipwon’tbeguaranteed.Sportsaloneertainlyhaventbeenenoughtostemthelossesofvideocustomersfromcableandsatelliteproviders.WeestimatethatpayTVpenetration,gmultichannelvideoprogrammingdistributors(MVPDs)irtualMVPDsvMVPDswillfallbelowofU.S.TVhouseholdsPayTVPenetration(UnitedStates)AstimespentandadvertiserdollarsmovetosocialnetworksandshortformvideoplatformsinadditiontoconnectedTV,thecontentexperiencewillbedrivenincreasinglybyalgorithmsand/orone’spersonalnetwork,resultingintheatomizationofmedia.TraditionalTVreachisdeclininginmostmarketsespeciallyamongyoungeraudiences,andsomeclientsarealreadybudgetingforTValongsideconnectedTVand,insomecases,YouTube.Thiswillnotbethecaseineverymarkettoday—insomecountriesfree-to-airTVisbetterabletosatisfyreachgoalsthaninothers.Butitseemsreasonabletoassumethatifthereisarelationshipbetweenshareofspendingoncontentandshareofviewing,thatthosereachandfrequencygoalswillcontinuetofalloffeverywhere.Thiswillbeespeciallytrueinmarketswhereamajorityoftheaudienceisaccessingcontentviaad-freeorad-lightsubscriptionservices.Justhowpervasivethesesubscriptionservicesbecomewilldependonthatshareofspendingoncontentmentionedabove.WhilewenotethatAmazon,Comcast,Disney,Netflix,ParamountandWarnerBros.Discoveryeachspentupwardsofbillionin2021oncontent,thecurrenteconomicenvironmenthasresultedinsomeadditionalfocusonprofitabilityinthenearterm,whichcouldconstraincontentspendinggrowthonstreamingservices.Henceitisunclearhowthepaceofstreamingcontentinvestmentwillcontinue,butwedobelieveitwillcontinuetogrowovertime.in2023withstrongergainsinCTV,retailmediaandfast-growingmarketslikeIndia.”InourJuneforecast,wedowngradedourglobaladvertisinggrowthestimatefromtheDecember2021figureof9.7%to8.4%—ain2023withstrongergainsinCTV,retailmediaandfast-growingmarketslikeIndia.”InourJuneforecast,wedowngradedourglobaladvertisinggrowthestimatefromtheDecember2021figureof9.7%to8.4%—achangeprimarilydrivenbydecelerationinChina,whichmadeup20%oftotaladvertisingrevenuein2021.ExpectationsforChinahavenowdeterioratedagain,fromourJunemarketestimateof3.3%advertisinggrowthtoanexpectedcontractionof0.6%thisyear.This,alongwithpocketsofreducedexpectationsinmarketsliketheU.S.,putourcurrentestimateat6.5%globalgrowthin2022,deceleratingin2023toa5.9%increase,albeitwithstrongergainsinconnectedTV,retailmediaandsomefast-growingmarketslikeIndia.AdvertisingisexpectedtoexpandOutsideofretailmediaweexpectdigitalrevenueincludingsearch,videoanddisplaytodeceleratefromdouble-digitgrowthtomid-single-digitgrowthoverthenextfiveyearsasthechannelreachesmaturityinmoremarkets.TikTokOutsideofretailmediaweexpectdigitalrevenueincludingsearch,videoanddisplaytodeceleratefromdouble-digitgrowthtomid-single-digitgrowthoverthenextfiveyearsasthechannelreachesmaturityinmoremarkets.TikTokasmeasuredindependentlyfromparentcompanyBytedanceinChinaislikelytoroughlydoublerevenuein2022.Thishaslikelybeenanotherdriveroftheadvertisin