金属数据周报（2023年第七周） 20230211 -浙商证券

告数据周报 (2023年第七周)：看好023年2月11日分分析师证书编号施毅shiyi12305221000022数据来源：Wind，浙商证券研究所(注：价格数据截止至2023年2月10日)2 锌(万元/吨)氧化镨钕(万元/吨)金属硅(万元/吨) 锌(万元/吨)氧化镨钕(万元/吨)金属硅(万元/吨)镍(万元/吨)与Q4均价变化22Q4均价22Q3均价碳酸锂(万元/吨)铜(万元/吨)铝(万元/吨)银(元/克).76.90%-0.97%-6.55%.0添加标题4.93钴钴(万元/吨)65%钨精矿(万元/吨)12.19.52%11.011.5镁镁(万元/吨)-5.57%钼(万元/吨)钛(万元钛(万元/吨)-0.46%五氧化二钒五氧化二钒>99.5%(万元/吨)锑(万元/吨)400,000350,000300,000250,000200,00050,000002最新金属库存400,000350,000300,000250,000200,00050,0000图：LME+COMEX铜库存(吨)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,0000图：LME锌库存(吨)400,000350,000300,000250,000200,00050,00002017-05-022018-05-022019-05-022020-05-022021-05-022022-05-02图：LME+COMEX铝库存(吨)2018-09-042019-09-042020-09-042021-09-042022-09-042018-09-042019-09-042020-09-042021-09-042022-09-040000004,000,0000图：LME镍库存(吨)000400,000000,0000303宏观面：资金流入实体经济，铜价增速迎来上升我们以美国M2增长率和增长率的差来代表未进入实体的资金量多少，将其与LME我们发现资金流向对于有前瞻性指引作用。00%LMEM--0100-0102-01-0100-0102-0104-0106-0108-0110-0112-0114-0116-0118-0120-0122-0140%455同比有所回升下半矿及精炼月量有所回升：202211月，全球矿/精炼量分别为1877/2212千吨，分别+4%/+7%；全球铜矿产量(千吨)同比%%%%4%%2%%全球精炼铜产量(千吨)同比225022002150210020502000%%%%4%%2%%-2%-3%10年期美国国债利率-2年期美国国债利率3%3%2%2%1%1%0%00000利差伦敦现货黄金:以美元计价(美元/盎司；右)6利2022年上半年以来，国内厂商开始集中复产与投建，供给释放叠加流动性收紧致使电解铝行业盈利水平再度大幅回落，吨铝价格由2022年3月23860元高位逐步回落至2022年12月18000元左右，利润水平亦逐步接近成本线。在宏观回暖的背景下，低库存和高成本给予价格强支撑，孱弱的消费预期限制了反。700030000中国电解铝成本模型：利润(元/吨)中国电解铝成本模型：总成本(元/吨)SMMA00铝-平均价(元/吨)700030000600025000500040002000030002000120001000100000-10005000-20000-3000020202020-01-022020-05-022020-09-022021-01-022021-05-022021-09-022022-01-022022-05-022022-09-028数据来源：SMM，浙商证券研究所利700060005000400030002000100002020-01-022020-04-022020-07-022020-10-022021-01-022021-04-022021-07-022021-10-022022-01-022022-04-022022-07-022022-10-02长流程螺纹钢利润(元/吨)华东调坯螺纹钢成本(元/吨)螺纹杭州(沙钢)-17:00-平均价(元/吨)1400120010008006004002000-200-400-600-8009锂上中下游最新月度供需9项目20212022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/12锂精矿进口万吨8203,149224,308207,519293,202258,419244,235214,581350,341350,341锂精矿进口吨211,71320,14522,57224,92323,05832,57828,71327,13723,84238,92738,927碳酸锂进口量吨81,017,976,7639,67528,391,369,287国内锂资源自供吨90,792,108,237,098,0989,098,098,098,098,098,098,098,098锂资源合计吨383,52237,45834,35836,94037,43343,69660,54751,04549,10748,76241,22760,43760,437碳酸锂量量吨吨240,00026,17826,67629,24431,73421,31030,31929,90632,79824,13534,16826,35436,65125,21034,81325,246锂盐量合计吨462,76741,81034,87451,49547,44055,65679,30457,55056,78667,04766,17371,75269,946正极材料锂需求20212022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/12LCE需求吨21,09121,93023,43926,95728,07426,51821,258磷酸铁锂LCE需求吨23,67422,51328,01530,82929,92525,201吨6,02074644877412491649033403LCE吨5928正极材料LCE需求合计吨284,94835,77632,06834,40431,13934,20940,55447,19547,60656,78360,77758,83048,358LCE吨2,0432,3292,4592,812,130,0852,542电池材料用量LCE需求吨298,76737,38233,70036,08632,82836,03242,59849,52450,06459,59563,90861,91550,899CE吨50,0004,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,583国内LCE需求合计吨348,76741,96638,28340,67037,41140,61547,18154,10854,64864,17968,49166,49855,483碳酸锂出口吨94364869878氢氧化锂出口吨66,2646,4934,093,797,7117,480,713798723,742,877,877国内锂盐环节LCE留存吨21,436-9,521-10,0852,0621,5304,23918,612-9,866-9,718-9,140-16,263-8,1511,639电池LCE需求20212022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/12电池求环节锂需LCE需求磷酸铁锂电池LCE需求电池LCE需求合计吨三元材料净出口吨吨吨吨5,12075,24025,24808836,134,7202,31422,254-447,2802,31423,654-7872,31428,954-202-81,2402,31421,714-5202,31426,874162,31430,694-6352,31433,95417672,31436,234-28920,8802,31442,6344,31123,1602,31444,8344,26923,4602,31445,1342,006220,3402,31437,4542,0062三元材料净出口对应LCE吨国内电池正极环节LCE留存吨49,9688,2753,658-1,3304,9971,0913,8165,2903,4393,0894,4502,5401,593动力电池装车情况20212022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/12电动车节锂需三元电池装车量用LCE吨磷酸铁锂电池装车量用LCE吨实际上车用锂量吨三元电池出口用LCE吨磷酸铁锂电池出口量用LCE吨储能电池用量GWh储能电池量用LCE吨59,44047,880201,840,3408,0004,6404,6809,3208,0006,5609204808,000,520,340,8608,0006,6406,12085,000,280,2408,000840,580400708,000,40040608,000,96021,200,6808,000,64020,460,4406,1808,000,80022,6604,5608,000,12023,9404,8808,000国内电池环节LCE留存吨55,9883,2196,8076,0375,4095,9803,0247,4847,0296,8115,261-2,047-3,393全链库存变化吨127,3921,9733796,76911,93611,31125,4522,909750760-6,552-7,658-161对应当需求月份数月2.82.22.22.32.52.73.23.23.23.33.13.03.0数据来源：SMM，动力电池联盟，中国海关，浙商证券研究所Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-2Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22国内月度光伏并网量(万千瓦)同比(%)2500500%-100%5026.57400%2000300%1500200%10005000%0029.6620.20.439.768.206.639.829.548.791月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月数据来源：中电联，浙商证券研究所新增装机当月值当月同比新增装机累计值累计同比2022月度公开招标量(GW)同比增速2022Q1-Q3.3522年光伏装机增速突破80GW；2023年光伏装机量同比增速有望接近100%。伏：全球装机量预测2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球光伏新增装机145.0175.0237.4336.5427.6523.8YoY31%21%36%42%27%22%中国48同比增速(%)46%欧洲45同比增速(%)美国41同比增速(%)日本9789同比增速(%)印度4同比增速(%)其他国家4447同比增速(%)258258136924702581369247025813692001400%1200%1000%800%600%400%200%0%-200%注：2月为累计值风电新增装机当月值(GW)当月同比(右)50250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%国内季度公开招标量(GW)同比增速(右)数据来源：中电联月度电力工业运行简况、国家能源局，浙商证券研究所新增装机当月值当月同比新增装机累计值累计同比22-1022-1122-12季度公开招标量同比增速QQQQQ招标量高增+明确政策规划+疫情放开，明年风电装机增速有望超40%：全球装机量预测2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球风电新增装机94769437YoY-18%23%22%19%陆风新增装机72708501YoY22%19%16%313551600美洲非洲及中东地区21223其他亚太地区76689海风新增装机217920YoY-67%33%50%44%235634445美洲00123其他亚太地区11245Wind022年中国陆、海风新增装机量，按2022前三季度比例估算)Nov-22Sep-22Jul-22May-22Mar-22Jan-22Nov-21Sep-21Jul-21May-21Mar-21Jan-21Nov-22Sep-22Jul-22May-22Mar-22Jan-22Nov-21Sep-21Jul-21May-21Mar-21Jan-21Nov-20Sep-20Jul-20May-20Mar-20Jan-20根据EVTank数据，2022，全球新能源汽车销量达到1082.4万辆，00Nov-22Sep-22Jul-22May-22Mar-22Jan-22Nov-21Sep-21Jul-21May-21Mar-21Jan-21Nov-20Sep-20Jul-20May-20Mar-20Jan-209000008000007000006000005000004000003000002000000增长61.6%。900%800%700%600%500%400%300%200%%全球新能源汽车月度销量(辆)同比增长(右，%)000anulranvpul同比增长(右，%)同比增长(右，%)an欧洲新能源汽车月度销量(辆)0%0%000中国新能源汽车月度销量(辆)同比增长(右，%)美国新能源汽车月度销量(美国新能源汽车月度销量(辆)May-21Mar-21Jan-21Nov-20Sep-20Jul-20May-20Mar-20Jan-20同比增长(右，Jul-同比增长(右，May-22Mar-22Jan-22NovSep-220%0%新能源汽车：全球销量预测22020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球新能源汽车销量(万辆)3106701082152019382537Y40%中国新能源汽车销量(万辆中国新能源汽车销量(万辆)同比增速(%)欧欧洲新能源汽车销量(万辆)478同比增速(%)42%美国新能源汽车销量(万辆)美国新能源汽车销量(万辆)同比增速(%)其他国家(万辆)244870121151198同比增速(%)46%资料来源：IEA,EVVloumes，中汽协，浙商证券研究所15储能装机情况根据CNESA统计，国内20221-12月锂电储能中标释放约38.6GWh。2022中国储能锂电池出达170%。0035302520502009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021全球新型储能市场累计容量(GWh)全球新型储能市场新增容量(Gwh)%%%%%%0%年增长率(%)同比增长率(%)350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%2016201720182019202020212022Q3美国储能累计装机容量(GWh)Bloomberg，浙商证券研究所美国储能新增装机容量(GWh) 45405025205086420201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022中国新型储能市场累计容量(GWh)中国新型储能市场新增容量(GWh)中国新型储能市场累计容量(GWh)20152016201720182019202020212022E欧洲储能累计装机容量(GWh)欧洲储能新增装机容量(GWh)800%700%600%500%400%300%200%0%%%能需求：电池出货量预测2022020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球储能新增需求(GWh)2865139189280378Y48%中国储能新增需求(中国储能新增需求(GWh)同比增速(%)48%欧欧洲储能新增需求(GWh)6同比增速(%)41%美美国储能新增需求(GWh)7同比增速(%)41%45%其其他国家储能新增需求(GWh)874844%同44%资料来源：BNEF，Woodmac，CNESA，浙商证券研究所经济复苏力度不及预期下游需求不及预期测算偏差风险责声明资