埃森哲：2022年半导体行业报告 The Pulse of the Semiconductor Industry Balancing resilience with innovation

ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustryBalancingresiliencewithinnovationCopyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.IntroductioIntroduction Semiconductorcompaniesareatthecenteroftechnologyinnovation,finance,geopolitics,andhumaningenuity,touchingvirtuallyeveryaspectofbusinessandpeople’slives.Thepastfewyears,however,havebeenfarfromsmoothsailing.Theindustryisstillreelingfromthechipshortagecrisis,andmanufacturersarebeingchallengedtobuildgreaterresiliencyduetocontinuallyincreasingdemandsonthesupplychain.SemiconductorSemiconductorcompaniesalsofaceongoingconflictsthataredisruptingenergysupplies,recordeconomicinflationandfearsofrecession,andatightlabormarketthat’smakingitdifficultforcompaniestorecruitandretainskilledtalent.Battlingdisruptionsonmultiplefrontscanmakeitdifficultforsemiconductorcompaniestoachievetheirgrowthgoals.Buttheopportunitiesarethere.NewAccentureresearch(seebox,“AbouttheResearch”)exploresthechallengestheindustryfaces,aswellashowcurrentandfuturetrendsarecreatingsignificantpotentialforsemiconductorcompaniestotransformtheirbusinessandcapitalizeonemerginggrowthopportunities.01Thestateoftheindustrytoday;02Thetwo-yearoutlookfortechnologies,products;and03Theroleofsemiconductorsinboth.ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.2Wesurveyed300globalsemiconductorexecutivestogettheirinsightson:sviewthemetaverseasthemostlikelytoachievexttwoyears28%MetaverseAlmostseveninten(67%)agreethatsemiconductorsarethecapabilitiesmostcriticaltothemetaverse’sdevelopment.37%ofrespondentscitedsustainabilityisthemostlikelytoplaythelargestroleinthesemiconductorvaluechainwithinthenextfiveyears.64%ofexecutivesbelievesemiconductormanufacturingcouldachieveanet-zeroyear-over-yearcarbonemissionsgrowthwithintwoyears.Seemoreofexecutivesthinkofmotorvehiclemanufacturingcompanyshouldpartnerwithatechnologycompanyonnext-generationmobilitytechnologies.93%Amajorityofrespondentsviewedsemiconductordesignfirmsorintegrateddevicemanufacturersaretheidealpartners.Ourstudyexploredfourselectdemand-generatingapplicationsthatholdthegreatestpotentialforsemiconductorcompaniestotransformtheirbusinessandofferings:SeeSeemoreSSustainabilityMMobilitySeemoreofrespondentsbelievethatwithinofrespondentsbelievethatwithindigitalhealth,wearableswillbenefitthemostfromcontinuedsemiconductorinnovation.28%36%ofexecutivesthinkwearablesarealreadyhavingasignificantimpactonimprovinghealth.DigitalhealthSeemore01Theyrepresentthelargestquantityofnewproductintroductionsandinnovativetechnologiesinthepast12months;and02Regardlessofcountry,thesearetopprioritiesacrosstheglobalsemiconductorindustry.ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.3areasfortworeasons:ThefutureBeforedivingintothefourfocusareas,let’shighlightwhatsemiconductorexecutivesthinkaboutthestateoftheindustrytoday,andtwoyearsfromnow.Inflationandeconomicconcernscontinuetobethetopchallengeforthesemiconductorsupplychainamongexecutivessurveyed(Figure1).Furthermore,executivesbelieveecosystemconsiderationssuchaschipsovereigntyandgeopoliticswillhavethegreatestimpactonsemiconductorinnovationinthenext12months(Figure2).Infact,56%ofexecutivesbelievethebestwaytoenhancetheindustry’sresilienceisbypromotingstrongIPprotectionandenforcementsocompaniescansharetechnologywhileguardingtheirinvestment.Figure1:Greatestchallengesforthesemiconductorsupplychaintoday35%20%18%14%12%Inflation/LingeringCovid-19TalentPipelineLackofGeopoliticsEconomicConcernsImplicationsInvestmentFigure2:Factorswiththegreatestimpactonsemiconductorinnovationinthenextyear448%Ecosystemconsiderationslikechipsovereigntyandgeopolitics42%42%Cybersecurity(company-levelandIoTdevice)339%ChangingcompetitivelandscapeTheThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.472%The72%Themetaverse'scomputationalinfrastructurewillbecompletedinlightofthecurrentchipshortageandsupplychainfragilityExecutivesalsoreportedanexpandingroleforartificialintelligence(AI)—bothintheenterpriseandinthesemiconductordevelopmentprocess.Oneintwo(50%)ofrespondentssaidtheyareeitherdeployingorscalingAI’suseinanalytics,andjustoverhalf(52%)reportedtheircompanyreliesonanevenbalancebetweenhumansandAIindevelopment.21%indicatedtheircompaniesrelymostlyonAIinsemiconductordevelopment.Whatdoesthefutureholdfortheindustry?Executiveswereremarkablyconsistentintheirviews.Figure3illustratestheirtoppredictionsforthenexttwoyears,withthetalentshortagetopofmind,slightlyaheadofsupplychainchallengesandin-housechipmanufacturing.Figure3:Howthesemiconductorindustrylandscapewillchangeby2024ThesupplychainwillbefreefromCOVID-19'slingeringeffects77%76%Thesemiconductorsupplychainchallengeswillberesolved76%75%Themajorityofconsumertechnologycompanieswillmovesemiconductormanufacturing75%capabilitiesin-house74%Theindustry'stalentshortagewillbe74%73%Themajorityofthesupplychainwillbedigitizedwithcloud,analytics,etc.73%WithWiththeseinsightsasthegeneralbackdropforwheretheindustryistodayandwhereit’sheaded,let’sexplorewhatexecutiveshadtosayaboutthefourfocusareas:themetaverse,sustainability,mobility,anddigitalhealth.ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.5MetaverseInthethirtyyearssincethemetaversetermwascoinedbysciencefictionwriterNealStephenson,gradualadvancementsintechnologypromisetoturntheconceptintoreality.HighTechenterprisecompaniesarebuildingtheinfrastructuretocreateanenvironmentthat’sripeforaccess,engagementandconsumption.Whatarethelikelyoutcomesofthemetaverseasthetechnologymatures?Amore-immersiveworkexperience,includingbetterhybridworkandimprovedonlinelearningandeducation,werecitedasthemostlikelyoutcomesbyexecutivesinoursurvey(Figure4).48%Improvingthehybridworkexperience4in10(42%)saidthe48%Improvingthehybridworkexperience4in10(42%)saidthemetaversewillcreatenewbusinessopportunitiesThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.625%saidthemetaversewillplaythelargestroleinthesemiconductorvaluechainwithinthenextfiveyearsorsooner47%Improvingonlinelearningandeducation43%Deliveringamoreimmersiveexperience MediumSignificant MediumSignificant(>50%)42%44%25%35%Medium5% 9%Significant(>50%)28%1“Hardware’sNewReality:HowHighTechcanFindGreaterValueintheMetaverse,”Accenture11/29/2022ofexecutivesbelievethemetaversewillreachcommercializationatscalewithinthenextoyears67%Meetingthatneedwillrequiretechnologyinnovation,whichexecutivesindicatedisthebiggestchallengefordeliveringcustomersemiconductorstometaversecompanies—biggerthanchiportalentshortages,oreventheconditionoftheeconomy.However,while88%ofexecutivessaidthepotentialbenefitthemetaversecanbringtosemiconductorcompaniesissignificant,theresultsmaybeunevenlydistributedacrossthesemiconductorvaluechain(asitcurrentlystands).Forexample,virtuallyallexecutivesbelievelarge-scalemanufacturersthathavethecapacitytoproducechipswillbenefitthemostfromthemetaverse.Adjustingtothisshiftinvalueacrosstheindustrywillbecriticaltometaverseenablement,asthecompaniesthatbenefitfromthemetaversemaynotbythosethatnormallyreaptherewardsofnewtechnology.Futuresuccesslikelyhingesuponextendingbeyondtheirlegacybusinesstoenablethevaluepotentialtheircustomer’sdemand.Theyjustneedtothinkmorecreativelyabouthowtodoit.1ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.7It’snosurprisethatsemicompaniesaregearinguptocapitalizeonthemetaverse,asevidentintheexpectedconsiderablejumpintheirproductionallocatedtothatspacewithinthenexttwoyears(Figure5).Figure5:AllocationofproductiontothemetaverseIntwoIntwoyears227%Thisboostisbasedongrowingexpectationsforthemetaverseandthespaceoccupiedbysemiconductors.agreeagreethatsemiconductorsarethecapabilitiesmostcriticaltothemetaverse’sdevelopment—farmorethanhardware(10%)orsoftware(23%)OurtakeEvaluatewheretometaversevaluechainDespiteitscurrentchallenges,themetaversehasbecometoobigtoignoreformostcompanies.However,manyCXOsarestillstrugglingtoformulateacomprehensivemetaversestrategythatwillconvincetheirstakeholdersofitslong-termvalue2.Forsemiconductorcompanies,theirplaceinthemetaverse,isstillinitsinfancy.Theymakethechipsthatpowerthedevicesandtechnologies.However,somesemiconductorcompaniesareusingthemetaversetofocusonthevaluechain,allowingthesecompaniesto: •ApplyR&Dtoengageinnewcapabilities•Useexistingcapabilitiesindifferentways•DevelopbeyondtheircorechipbusinessThegoalistotapintomore-lucrativesegmentsofthisexcitingnewspace—includinghelpingtobuildtheplatformanddesigntheexperiencesthatsupportthemetaverse.AMDisagreatexample.In2020,AMDdidn’tmentionthemetaverse,fastforwardtwoyearsandoneacquisitionlater,thecompanyhighlightedits“deepinvolvement”inthemetaverseand“beingattheforefrontofwhere[it’s]going.”attheir2022FinancialAnalystDay.AMDarguablyseesamuti-prongedopportunityacrossitsIPOportfoliobydevelopinghighlyvisualandimmersivecontentandtransformingthesemi-custombusinesstooffercustomersnewsolutions.Today,thecompanyiswell-positionedasmetaverseenablerofproductslikedatacenters,nearandedgecomputinganddevicescreatorasthedefactostandardfor3Dcontentstudios,gamingconsoles,phonesandPCs.Lookingatwhattheyaccomplishedintwoyears,thenexttwoarelikelytounlockevenmoreinnovation.32ContentForthcoming3“FinancialAnalystDay,”AMDInvestorRelations06/09/2022.ContentbasedonAccentureanalysis.ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.8SustainaSustainabilitySustainabilityhasbecomeacriticalissueforallcompanies,includingthoseinthesemiconductorsector.Growingchipdemandrequiresincreasedproductionwhich,ultimately,requiresmorepower,water,andnaturalresources.Forexample,overallsemiconductorenergyuseinchipproductionhasdoubledeverythreeyearssince2010andcouldconsumenearly20%ofplanetaryenergyproducedby20304.Alargechipfabcanuseupto10milliongallonsofwateraday,equivalenttothewaterconsumptionofroughly300,000U.S.households5.Despitethechallengestheyface,semiconductorexecutivesremainoptimistic.64%believesemiconductormanufacturingcanachieveanet-zeroyear-over-yearcarbonemissionsreductionwithintwoyears.90%ManufacturingProcess4“DepartmentofEnergyAnnouncesPledgesfrom21OrganizationstoIncreasetheEnergyEfficiencyofSemiconductorsandBolsterAmericanManufacturing,”U.S.DepartmentofEnergy09/21/20225“ScarcityDrivesFabsto90%ManufacturingProcess4“DepartmentofEnergyAnnouncesPledgesfrom21OrganizationstoIncreasetheEnergyEfficiencyofSemiconductorsandBolsterAmericanManufacturing,”U.S.DepartmentofEnergy09/21/20225“ScarcityDrivesFabstoWastewaterRecycling,”IEEESpectrumOnline01/25/2022ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.9UsageandRetirementTransportation84%78%future(e.g.,withinthenextfiveyearsorsooner).Over90%ofexecutivesagreedthatmoresustainablesemiconductorpracticeswillcreatemoresustainableconsumerproducts(94%)andsustainabilityinitiativeswillhaveapositiveimpactonprofitability(93%).And,alargemajoritybelievesustainabilitycanbeaccuratelymeasuredinnotjustthemanufacturingprocessandtransportation,butalsoinproductusageandretirement(Figure6).Figure6:Cansustainabilitybeaccuratelymeasuredacrossthefollowingpartsoftheconsumerproductlifecycle?Howcansemiconductorcompaniesgettothismore-sustainablefuture?Fromamanufacturingperspective,companieshavealreadyembarkedonvariousinitiativestocreateamoresustainablemanufacturingprocess—ledbydeployingIoTandEdgecomputingtomonitorenergyconsumption(Figure7).Figure7:Initiativescompanieshaveenactedtoenableamoresustainablesemiconductormanufacturingprocess52%IoTandEdgeComputingforMonitoringEnvironmentalControlsandEnergyManagement52%48%46%Cloud48%46%44%AnalyticsandPredictiveMaintenance44%RenewableEnergyUsageEthicalEthicalRawMaterialsSourcing41%SolarSolarPower/GasAbatement/LEEDCertificationAchievement/SmartBuildings39%WaterWaterRecycling30%NetNetZeroCommitments27%Beyondtheirinternalfacilities,semiconductorexecutivesbelieveanumberofactionscouldhelpdrivemoresustainableecosystemoutcomes(e.g.,products,processes,andoperations)(Figure8).Figure8:Wayssemiconductorcompaniescouldcreatemoresustainableecosystemoutcomes55%50%47%43%OptimizingsourcingFocusingondesignSecuringcleanerbackupParticipatinginthematerialswhileminimizingwasteinnovationthatcouldleadtopotentiallybiodegradableconsumerelectronicspowergenerationcapabilitiescirculareconomyfromthedesignstageOptimizingsourcingwhilereducingwastewasthetopchoice,butexecutivesalsobelievepayingcloserattentiontoinnovationatthedesignstagetocreatemorecircular(and,perhapsevenbiodegradable)productsiskey.Importantly,semiconductorcompaniesareputtingmoneybehindsuchefforts(Figure9).Figure9:Percentageofcompanies’budget(e.g.capex/opex)dedicatedtosustainabilityprograms18%<10%18%33%41%8%10%-2033%41%8%21%-30%>30%TheThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.10OurtakeBakesustainabilityintocoremanufacturingandprocesscapabilitiesTechnologyenablessustainabilitybestpractices,andsemiconductorsareatthecore.It’saninterestingvirtuouscycle,inwhichsemiconductorcompaniesmanufacturethechipsthatenablesustainability,whichinturnhelpssemiconductorcompaniesaddressorsolvetheirownsustainabilityissues.Thechallengeismakingsureittrulyimprovesthebusiness—especiallyinmanufacturing.Formaximum,positiveimpact,sustainabilityinitiativesinmanufacturingandprocesscapabilitiesmustbe: •Wellplanned,executed,andmeasuredwithadvancedanalytics•Includedincorporateobjectives,notjustan“addon”Semiconductorcompaniesneedtoworkcloselywitheachotheroninitiativesthatcanmovetheentireindustryforward.AgoodstarttothatendistheSemiconductorClimateConsortium,toreducegreenhousegasemissionsacrossthesemiconductorvaluechain6.Sharingaccumulatedknowledgeandinnovativetechnologyviathisconsortiumcanhelpcompaniesacceleratetheirsustainabilityeffortsandprogresstowardtheirclimategoals.6“SemiconductorClimateConsortium,”Sretrieved11/2022ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.11MobilityThepersistentshortageofchipshasdisruptedtheautomotiveandelectronicsindustries,forcingsomefirmstoscalebackproduction.Newvehiclescancontainuptoanywherefrom1,000to3,500chipsalone7.Therearesignstheshortageiseasing:September2022’sreportedleadtimeswere26.3weeks,comparedwith27weeksinAugust,withthehighestleadtimesof27.1weeksinApril,comparedwiththe25-weekdelayinthepreviousSeptember8.Chipproduction(inweeks)726.325September2021April2022August2022September2022Asmoreandmoredigitaltechnologiesareintegratedintoautonomousversusdriveroperatedvehicles,semiconductorcompaniesneedtobeawareoftrendsinthespaceandtheopportunitiestheycreate.Forexample,traditionalmodesoftransportationarebeingupendedwithdronedeliveryandairtaxisalreadyonthehorizon,andautonomousvehiclesaren’tthatfaraway.42%7ContentForthcoming8“ChipDeliveryTimesShrinkinSignThatSupplyChainIsEasing,”Bloomberg,10/17/20202.SupplementaldataprovidedbySusquehannaResearchasofNovember2022ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.12ofexecutivesbelieveautonomousvehicleswillbecomemainstreamforpersonalusewithinjustthenexttwoyears46%AI/Machine46%AI/MachineLearning/NaturalLanguageProcessing41%Next-GenerationComputing(e.g.,Quantum,EdgeComputing)Withinthreetofiveyears,alargemajorityofexecutivesexpectautonomousvehiclestobecommonfortruckingandlong-hauling,aswellasmasstransportation.Innovationinthesectorcontinuestobedrivenbyseveralsemiconductor-enabledtechnologies.Themostprominentoftheseareartificialintelligence,machinelearning,andnaturallanguageprocessing(Figure10).Figure10:Top3semiconductor-enablingtechnologiesdrivingmobilityinnovation443%Next-LevelProcessAutomationandVirtualizationAtthesametime,executivesacknowledgethatsubstantialroadblockstoscalingmobilityproductsremain(Figure11).Thebiggestofthese,despiterecentimprovement,isasignificantextensionofthecurrentchipshortage,followedcloselybycostconcerns.Figure11:Substantialroadblockstoscalingmobilityproducts,technologicalorotherwise52%Asignificantextensionofthecurrentsemiconductorshortage50%Costand/oravailabilityinlightofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentIntwoyearsediumSignificant(>50%)ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.13TodayediumSignificant(>50%) 44%43%26%42%25%4%5%OnewaytoovercomecurrentIntwoyearsediumSignificant(>50%)ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.13TodayediumSignificant(>50%) 44%43%26%42%25%4%5%Asisthecasewiththeotherfocusareasinourstudy,mobilityissettogetmoreattentionfromsemiconductorcompaniesinthenearfuture,withagrowingportionofproductiondedicatedtomobility-relatedproducts(Figure12).Figure12:AllocationofproductiontomobilityOurtakeCompetingwithnon-traditionalandnewmarketentrantsAutomotivechallengestheprevioustrendsinthattheapplicationsandusecasesarefairlyclearwheresemiconductorcompaniesneedtogo.Thestruggleisbalancingdemand,supplychainchallengesanddesignspecificationsfortraditional,electric,andautonomousvehicles.Atthesametime,semiconductorcompaniesneedtoforecastplanningandaddresshigh-qualitysupplysourcingandmanufacturingrequirements.Somecompaniesareconsidering: •Creatingbusinessfunctionsseparatedbyautomotiveandnon-automotive•Establishpartnershipswithexistingclientsandallocate/secondengineeringtalentasneeded•EngageinM&AorJVstodevelopin-housetechnologiesthatalignwithyourmarketalignmentgoalsSomeautomotivecompaniesareforgingaheadontheirown.Recently,GeneralMotors’sautonomousdrivingunitsaiditwilldeployitsin-housedesignedchipstodecreasecostsandincreasevolume.TeslastuckaJVwithSwissautomotivesemiconductorcompany.AnnexfortheJV,markingthefirsttimetheautomotivecompanywillbeinvolvedinchipdesignandmanufacturingintheChinesemainland.Finally,IntelrecentlycompleteditsIPOofitsMobileye,itsautonomousdrivingbusinessunit,andwillreinvestsomeoftheproceedsbackintothebusiness.910119“UpsetbyHighprices,GM’sCruiseDevelopsitsownChipsforSelf-DrivingCars,”Reuters09/13/202210“CanChipFirmsleadtoCutting-EdgeProductsBeingProducedDomestically?,”AsianNewsNetwork12/07/202211“MobileyePopsMorethan37%inMarketDebutafterSpinningoutofIntel,”CNBC10/26/202214ThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved14DigitalDigitalhealthEnterprisesofalltypesarerollingoutincreasinglyinnovativedigitalhealthstrategies.Whetherthefocusisdevelopingelectronichealthrecords(cloudcomputing),creatingdata-drivenrecommendations(AI)andenablingtelehealthofferings(devicesandconnections),leadingorganizationscanfundamentallychangethewayhealthcareisdeliveredandthehealthconsumerexperience.14%DatasharingtocareThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.1521%Increasedhealtheducationandhealthliteracy18%Proliferationofwearablehealthdevices9%Receivingcare(clinicalworkflow,postdiagnosis)%Proactivescreeninganddiagnosis9%Caremanagement&adherence8%Dailywell-being6%AccessIntheemerginglandscape,patientshavebecometheconsumersandareactivelydemandingansreceivinghealthcarethatisconsistentwithhealthcareexperienceconsistentwithdailylife.Asaresult,thedigitalhealthagendahasbecomeapriorityforthe14%DatasharingtocareThePulseoftheSemiconductorIndustry:Balancingresiliencewithinnovation|Copyright©2022Accenture.Allrightsreserved.1521%Increasedhealtheducationandhealthliteracy18%Proliferationofwearablehealthdevices9%Receivingcare(clinicalworkflow,postdiagnosis)%Proactivescreeninganddiagnosis9%Caremanagement&adherence8%Dailywell-being6%AccessFigure13:SemiconductorinnovationenablingdigitalhealthproductsWearabledevices,inparticular,willbecomeincreasinglyimportantandpervasiveasconsumersgrowmoreproactiveaboutmonitoringandmanagingtheirownhealth.Infact,28%ofexecutivesbelievethatwithindigitalhealth,wearableswillbenefitthemostfromcontinuedsemiconductorinnovation,and36%thinkwearablesarealreadyhavingasignificantimpactonchanginghealthforthebetter.Thatsaid,50%stillbelievemoretimeisneeded.Theseexecutivessaidwearablesareontheirwaytoimprovinghealth,wewon’tseesignificantimpactinthenextonetofiveyearstotrulymakeasignificantimpact.Inthedevicespace,widelyavailablewearables—agrowingpartofthedigitalhealthecosystem—havethemostgrowthpotential,accordingtoexecutivesinoursurvey(Figure14).Theyreportedthatwearableswiththegreatestpotentialarefitnesstrackers,smartwatches,andbodysensors.Interestingly,71%believeMRIsandx-rayswilleventuallybedigitizedandcommoditizedenoughtobecomeawearabledevice.Figure14:WearabledeviceswiththemostgrowthpotentialFitnessFitnessTrackerSmartGlasses42%23%38%Body