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JULY2022 ACenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings1crisesadvancedeconomygovernmentshaveincreasinglybeenemphasizing“green”economicgrowthstrategiestotackleclimatechangewhilepromotingbothrecoveryandfutureprosperityThisisawelcomeandlongoverdueshiftIn020,forexample,thelarge-scaleambitionstomitigategreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswhilepromotingjobs,innovation,andlong-termeconomicgrowth.navigatedtheirowneconomicandclimateprioritieswhilefendingoffeconomiccrisis.1Whilemanyofthemostclimatevulnerablecountrieshavelongbeenattheforefrontofcallsforglobalclimateaction,manypolicymakersarestilllookingforevidencethatgreentransitionsarecosteffective,especiallygiventhedifficultiestheyfaceinmostEMDEshavebeenmentstothesameextentasadvancedeconomies.2Withindevelopingcountries,basicdevelopmenttasksremainparamount,vidingaccesstomodernenergyimprovinghealthandeducationsystemsbuildinginfrastructure,andgrowingjobs.iciesemphasizingclimatechangeanddecarbonizationhaveoftenbeeninterpretedasluxuryundertakingsthatlower-incomeeconomiescouldnotimmediatelyaffordtotakeon.Someanalystsfurtherdecryaperceivedhypocrisydvancedeconomiesthatarelargescaleconsumersorexportersofcarbonintensivefossilfuelsseektobanthefinancingoffossilfuelprojectsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesplacingthegreatestburdensonvulnerablepeople,oftenwomen.3Nonetheless,agrowingrangeofvoiceswithindevelopingcountriesarearguingthatmajortransitionstowardssustainableenergyandelectrificationarecompatiblewith,andindeedcentralto,newdevelopmentopportunities.1Inthisframing,thetermEMDEsexcludesChinasinceitsoverallscalemakesitsuigenerisinclimatepolicydiscussions.Itsissuesandresourceconstraintsareincreasinglydifferentfromthoseinotherdevelopingcountries.2See,forexample,Bhattacharyaandothers(2021)3See,forexample,Ramachandran(2022).CenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings2wingconvergenceofviewsacrossdevelopingandadvancedeconomiesregardingthescaleandurgencyofneededclimateaction,evenifprioritiesdiffer.Intheforefrontarethemanysmalldevelopingcountriesthatare“climatetakers,”meaningtheyhavedoneverylittletocontributetoclimatechangebutbearthegreatestsandhavebeenpersistentlyvocalontheneedforstrongeraction.Formanydevelopingcountries,theimmediateclimateprioritiesaretobecomemoreresilienttoongoingshocksthatseeminevitable.Theseshockscancomeinmanydifferentforms,includingwhenagriculturalcommodityproducersseetheircropsruinedfromdroughtsorfloods,whenurbanfoodpricesspikeasaresultofagriculturaldisruption,orwhenexporterswithlittlecontrolovertheircountries’mixofenergyusefacesuddennewcarbontariffsinadvancedeconomymarkets.Womenandgirlstypicallybearadisproportionateburdenofclimate-relatedcosts.Theeffectsareoftenworstforthemostvulnerablepeopleinasociety.tthisbackdropalargeandgrowingnumberofEMDEshavemadeofficialpubliccommitmentstoachieve“netzero”emissions,butwiththeemissionstargetssequencedtofollowdevelopmenttargets.InMay2022,forexample,10AfricancountriesendorsedtheKigaliCommuniqueforajustandequitableenergytransitioninAfrica,anchoredinbothamodernenergyminimumfortheentirecontinentandanAfrican“pathwaytoeconomicprosperityandNet-Zero.”4Inconfrontingwidespreadcentivetopushimplementationofnet-zeroemissionscommitmentsintothefuture.Recentglobaleventshaveonlyreinforcedadeterminationtofocusoncoredevelopmentissues.ybeAdifferenceofoutlooksbetweenrichandpoorcountriesthreatenstoleaveeveryoneworseoff.RichcountrieswillhavelittlechanceoffulfillingtheirambitionstokeepglobalpationofEMDEsMeanwhileEMDEswillGHGemissionspathoverthecomingdecades,eveniftheiremissionstrajectoriesstartfromalowbase.Theywillalsopotentiallyevenescalatingconflictlinkedtoclimate-drivenmigration.LordNicholasagueshaveaptlysummarizedthestakesIftheworldfailsonpovertythenitfailsonclimatechange;andifitfailsonclimatechange,itwillfailonpovertytoo.5ncilingadvancedeconomyandEMDEviewswastofocusonresourcetransferswherebydevelopingcountrieswereencouragedtomakeambitious4GovernmentofRwanda(2022).5Lankes,SoubeyranandStern(2022).CenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings3commitmentsonmitigationinexchangeforhigherlevelsoffinancialsupportfromrichcountriesThisapproachisfailingEvenamodest2009promiseof$100billionperyearinfinancialsupportstillhasnotfullymaterialized,anditisinanycasemassivelyinadequaterelativetothemulti-trillion-dollartaskathand.Moreover,itblursthedistinctionbetweenofficialgrantdollars,developmentfinanceandprivateinvestment,eachofwhichhastoplayitsduerole.viewsofwhatconstitutesgoodeconomicdevelopmentstrategy,andhowtacklingclimatechangecanformacenterpieceoffuturedevelopmentsuccessstories.Thisontoengagerespectandpromotethelivelihoodsofindividualsaffectedbyclimateaction.Themassivescaleoftheissuesandtheurgencyofthetimeframeforactionbegethugepoliticalcomplexity.Nearlyeightbillionpeople’slivelihoodsneedtobeprotectedandpromotedacrossallcountryincomelevels.Therequiredchangessimplywillnotoccurfastenoughwithoutlarge-scaledeploymentofresourcesbothfrompublicandprivatesectoractors.Ifdevelopingcountriesmovetooslowlyinbuildingnewenergysystems,overopportunitiesinforexamplegreenhydrogenornewinternationalsupplychains.Butiftheymovetooquickly,theymayreducefocusonshort-termgoalsofjobsandpovertyreduction.Fortunately,theeconomiclensontacklingclimatechangehasstartedtoshiftacrosscountriesatalllevelsofeconomicdevelopment.Agrowingconsensusnolongerseesclimateissuessimplyasacost,butinsteadasamatterofinvestmentwithhighpotentialratesofreturninprotectingandpromotingprosperity.OngoingimprovementsnseofopportunityButforEMDEstheoverallshiftstillraisesfundamentalquestionsaroundaccesstocapitalandcostofcapital,whichformmuchgreaterbarriersforpoorcountriesthanforrichcountries.iefwedescribethepivotalchallengesEMDEsfaceintacklingclimatechangeandwhyitissoimportantforglobalclimatepolicyeffortstohelpelevateandaddressthem.Weprovidehistoricalcontext,describegrowingmomentum,andoutlineacorepolicyagendatosupportEMDEclimateaction.CenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings4mmitwhenenvironmentalsustainabilityandthethreatofclimatechangecametothefore,globalannualCO2emissionshavedoubledenvironmentaldegradationandlossofbiodiversityhavesharplyacceleratedThefailuretoreverseworseningtrendsreflectsdeepdivisionsbetweencountriesandwithinsocieties.cedeconomiesespeciallyintheUnitedStates,wherefossilfuelandothervestedinterestspromotedmisleadingnarrativesdenyingthatclimatechangewasevenhappeningandthatclimateactionnecessarilyunderminesjobsandeconomicgrowth.Anothersourceofdivisionemanatedfromlackofagreementonhowtobridgeoutlooksandhistoricalresponsibilitiesacrossdevelopedincereintellectualargumentsoverwhetherclimateactionrequiresatrade-offwitheconomicdevelopment.Respecteddevelopmenteconomistshavearguedthatdevelopingcountriesshouldfocusonpovertyreductioneffortsratherthanclimate.6Ultimatelyclimatechangeembodiesissuesofdeepinjusticeandinequalitysincedevelopingcountriesthathavecontributedtheleasttoclimatechangearealsothemostvulnerabletoclimatechange.7Theimportanceofeconomicdevelopmenthaslongframedacentraltenetofglobalclimatepolicydebates.Theoriginalagreementofthethat“economicandsocialdevelopmentandpovertyeradicationarethefirstandoverridingprioritiesofthedevelopingcountryParties”andthatcountriesshouldaddressclimatechangeaccordingtotheir“commonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesandrespectivecapabilities.”Overthecourseofthe1990sand2000s,alackofeffectiveclimateactionbydevelopedcountriesandinadequatesupportfordevelopingcountriessoweddeepdistrustamongthelatter.enhagentherewasagreementthatallcountriesneededtocontributetothegoaloflimitingglobalwarminganddevelopedcountriesacceptedtheirresponsibilitytoprovidesupportivefinance.Thiswasembodiedinahigh-profilecommitmentthatdevelopedcountrieswouldprovidedevelopingcountrieswith$100billioninannualclimatefinanceby2020.Crucially,thecommitmentwaswatereddowninthefinalmomentsofnegotiation,from$100billioninofficialfinancialsupportto$100billioninpublicandtshortfallsonthiscommitmentinhlyconcessionalsupportsoweddistrustnsMeanwhiletheinterestsoflargeEMDEemittersandthemajorityofpoorandvulnerablecountriesalsobegantodivergeasthe6See,forexample,Dercon(2014).7Stern(2015).8Currentexpectationsarethatthe$100billioncommitmentwillonlybemetby2023.ACenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings5latterpressedformuchmoreaggressiveactiontocurbemissionsandstrongersupporttorespondtoclimatevulnerability.itechallengeswiththeCopenhagenpledgeandotherfinancingcommitmentsstrongerinternationalcooperationandmoreambitiousnationalactionsstartedtotakeesTheParisAgreementofandtheGlasgowPactin2021servedasimportantmilestones.TheParisAgreementunitedallcountriesaroundthecommoncauseofmaking“nationallydeterminedcontributions”(NDC)lwarmingtonomorethanCandpreferablyCInthetheragreedtoratchetuptheirNDCambitionsphasedowntheuseofcoal,andincreasedevelopingcountries’financingforadaptation.Multiplefactorshavedriventheshifttowardgreaterglobalcooperation.Oneinfluenceistheincreasingclarityofclimatescience.In2018,theIntergovernmentalPanelonhighlightedtheexistingeffectsofclimatechange,theseriousconsequencesofglobalarmingbeyondCandtheshortwindowremainingtopreventirreversibleclimateIPCCsreportthendocumentedtherapidaccelerationofclimatechange,furthernarrowingthewindowforlimitingglobalwarmingto1.5°Candunderscoringtheimperativetoreachnet-zeroemissionsby2050.A2019majorinternationalscientificassessmentalsohighlightedclimatechangeasoneofthetopthreecausesofdeclinesinnatureandbiodiversity,whichareincreasinglyappreciatedasessentialforhumanhealthandlivingstandards.9AcceleratedclimatetodamagepercentoftheworldscoralreefsCwouldlikelywipeoutnearlyallofthemAndwhileCwarmingislikelytoexpose14percentofnceeveryfiveyearsCislikelytoexpose37percenttothesamestandardofextremes.Iftemperaturesrisemorethan2°C,thereisasignificantlygreaterprobabilityofmoreunpredictableandlikelyirreversibleenvironmentalchangesVividwarningsofextremeeventshaverecentlycomethroughdingaroundadvancedandemergingeconomiesinadditiontodamaginghurricanesandtyphoonsinmid-latituderegionsfromtheCaribbeantothePhilippines.Anotherdrivertowardgreaterinternationalcooperationhasbeenagrowingunderstandingofthecostsandrisksofinactiononclimatechange.Forexample,uncheckedclimatechangecoulddisplacehundredsofmillionsofpeople,especiallyindevelopingcountries.Jobsandwealthincarbon-intensiveindustrieswillbeatrisk,aswillthoseinpollutingsectorsthatmightneedtobeabruptlyretired.Thegreaterthe9Díazandothers(2019).ACenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings6delayondecarbonization,thegreatertheriskofunemploymentandfinancialcostsinpollutingsectors.whiletheeconomicsofdecisiveclimateactionhaveimprovedLowcarbonenergysystemsareincreasinglycompetitive,andoftenlessexpensive,comparedtofossilfuel-basedinvestments.10Thiscouldsupportmoreinclusive,resilient,andsustainableoeconomicgrowtheveninlowerincomecountriesSinceEMDEsareyettobuildmostofthephysicalinfrastructurethatwilldominatetheireconomiesbymid-eyhavetheopportunitytogainfromrecentadvancesandongoingcostreductionsinlow-carbontechnology.Buildingnewinfrastructureinaclimate-smartwayisfarcheaperthanretrofittingexistinginfrastructure.cedeconomiessetaspirationalgoalsto“buildbackbetter,”withgreeninvestmentsasacentralfocus.Aninvestment-ledoldandonlyasmallproportionoftheinvestmentsevenmorechallenging,withsevereconstraintsontheirfiscalspaceandabilitytoscaleupgreeninvestments.ThefalloutoftheUkrainewarhasfurtheramplifiedthedivergentndbroughtenergysecurityandenergyaffordabilitytothefore.Notwithstandingthedifficultcircumstances,thereisastrongcasetomakeabigriveoutofthecurrentcrisisanddeliveronsustainabledevelopmentandclimategoals.Investmentstargetedatemissionsmitigation,climateadaptation,andpreservationofnaturalcapitalcanprovideademand-sideeconomicstimulusthroughjobcreationtrainingandenterprisegrowth.Overthemediumterm,throughforcessuchasWright’sLaw,whichsuggeststhatpricesdropasaproduct’scumulativeproductiongrows,theseinvestmentscanalsostimulateeconomicinnovationandtechnologydiscovery,whichcaninturnfeedintonewsourcesofeconomicgrowth.12Ifthegrowthiswell-channeled,itcouldplayahugeroleinreducingglobalpovertyandinequalitywhilealsodeliveringco-benefitslikecleanairandwater.13TheNewClimateEconomyinitiativehasgonesofarastoarguethatclimate-focusedinvestmentscan“unlocktheinclusivegrowthstoryofthe21stcentury.”1410IRENA(2022).11Stern(2021).12SeeKharas,McArthur,andOhno(2021).13Stern(2015);MecklingandAllan(2020).14NCE(2018).CenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings7Amidthefast-changingcontext,theworldiscoalescingbehindthreeinterrelatedstrategicobjectives,whichwecollectivelyduba“globalgreentransition”:151.Settinganequitablepathtoreachnet-zeroglobalemissionsby2050.2.Takingmoreaggressiveactionsonclimateadaptationandresilience.3.Protectingandrestoringnaturalcapital.eeobjectivesmajorinternationaldifferencespersistonhowbesttoachievethemandtherelativepriorityofpingeconomiesthemselves.Someofthekeyissuesareasfollows:Despitemanycountries’ongoingcommitmentstocutgreenhousegasemissions,theClimateActionTrackerprojectestimatesthatcurrentpoliciesandcommitmentswilllimitwarmingtoapproximately2.4-2.7°Cabovepre-industriallevels.16GHGmitigationisobalpublicgoodGPGinthattheamountsprovidedbyeachtothetotalThiscontrastswithaweakestlinktypeGPGsuchasprotectionfrominfectiousdisease.Akeyfeatureoftheglobalcarbonconstraintisthatitrequiresthepathtothenet-zeroemissionsgoaltobefront-loaded.17A“carbonbudget”identifiesthetotalvolumeofadditionalGHGsthatcanbeemittedwhilestillremainingwithinanoverallbandofglobalwarming.Iftheworldcontinuesatrecentannualaggregateemissionslevelsthiswilluseuptheremainingcarbonbudgetroughlyadecadeandevenfasterifeconomicgrowthraisesthepaceofcarbonemissions.Extendingthesameannualtrajectorywillexceedthecarbonbudgetforthe2°Cwarmingtargetbyapproximately.eedstobeallocatedinamannerthatpreservesopportunitiesfordevelopment.Asoftoday,alittlelessthan30percentoftheworld’scarbonemissionscomefromadvancedeconomies,includingtherichGulfoilproducers,romChinaandtherestcomefromotherEMDEsBusiness-as-usualprojectionsshowaggregateadvancedeconomyemissionsremainingissionsfromChinaandEMDEsroughly15Recognizingtheperceptionissuesinmanycountriesaroundanythinglabelled“green,”weconsiderthisatentativeworkinglabelasfurthermonikersareexplored.16ClimateActionTracker(n.d.).17BhattacharyaandDervis(2022).18Notethattheseshareslookverydifferentwhencomputedonthebasisofcumulativecarbonemissionstodate,orconsumptionratherthanproduction.19See,forexample,EIA(2021).CenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings8ttedtocutemissionsbypercentbyandtoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050.Unfortunately,thiswillnotbesufficienttoreachnet-zerogloballyby2050.Theywillthereforeneedtobemoreambitiousgiventheirdominantcontributiontopastemissionsandmuchhigherpercapitaemissions,aswellastheircapabilitytomobilizethenecessaryfinancialresources.amuchlowercurrentlevelandcumulativehistoryofpercapitaemissionsAsdiscussedattheoutset,amidtheirhugedevelopmentneeds,developingcountriesnaturallyargueforalongertimeframetoachievenetzeroadvancedeconomiesreachnetzeroornegativenetemissionsbythe2050–2070timeframe.Itisthereforeencouragingthatalargemajorityofdevelopingcountries,includingthelargestemitters,haveallrecentlycommittedtonetzerotargets.Chinahascommitteditselftonet-zeroby2060andanemissionspeakin2030buthasthefinancialandtechnologicalcapabilitytomakeevenfasterprogress.However,theremainingglobalcarbonbudgetissmallenoughthatevenifChinaweretojointheadvancedcountriesinearlyandambitiousmitigationpolicies,thiswouldnotbeenoughtokeepthe“closeto1.5degreesCelsius”targetwithinreach.AsignificantcontributionDEsisalsonecessaryforanaggregateefforttobesufficientOvertheangingfromtoThishasgeneratednewdebatesabouthowthenetzerotargetswillbeachieved.accountforvirtuallyalloftheworldsincrementalenergydemand,drivenbytheneedtoaddresslargeenergyaccessdeficitsandbroaderdevelopmentimperativesthroughalikelyperiodofmajorurbanizationandstructuraleconomicchange.Buildingingtheglobalnetzerotargetbymid-century.Thepositivesideofthisisthatexpansionandtransformationofenergysystemscanunlocknewandmuchbetterformsofgrowth,andhdevelopmentandclimategoalsTheglobalconcernsaboutenergysecuritytriggeredbytheUkrainecrisiscallforevenfasteractiontoprovidecleanformsonalregionalandglobalenergysecurityelectricityproductionwillneedtoincreasemassivelybetweennowandinseespeciallytransportanduseofgreenhydrogeninhardtoowlargelybeundertakenbytheprivatesector.ButtherewillbeneedforlargecomplementarypublicinvestmentsingridndbackupcapacityandtheseinvestmentswillneedtobecountriesnaturalgaswillhavetoremainaspartoftheenergypacityThereisalsotremendouspotentialinEMDEsforimprovementsinenergyefficiencybothonsupplyanddemand.CenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings9Thephaseoutofcoalrepresentsthelowesthangingfruitincuttingglobalcarbonemissionsbutwillbeparticularlychallengingincoal-dependentemergingmarkets.Asadvancedeconomiesphaseoutcoal-firedpowerplants,thebulkoftheremainingcoalnaandseveralotheremergingmarketsEarlyphaseoutofcoalwillbringimportanthealthbenefitsbutwillalsoentailsubstantialfinancialcosts—suchasforforegonerevenues,decommissioningofplants,andemploymenttransitioncostsforrnationalcommunityThesetransitioncostswillbehigherineconomieswithlargeprimarycoalproductionandcoal-thAfricaIndiaandIndonesiaTheenergytransformationmustnotonlyensureajusttransitionbutalsoserveasafoundationforjobcreationandinclusivegrowth.Thepoliticaleconomyofmanagingtheshifttocleanenergywillbeespeciallychallenginginfossil-fueldependenteconomies,speciallyingeographicregionswherehydrocarbonfocusedproductionandenergygenerationareconcentrated.ProactiveattentionmustbegiventoimpactsonpeopleyonpoorandvulnerablepeopleandcommunitiesThisincludestheimpactofpoliciessuchascarbonpricingandeliminationoffossilfuelsubsidies.Largeandsustainedboostsofinvestmenttotransformenergyaccessandaffordabilitycanmakeastrongcontributiontoinclusiveandjob-richgrowth.Asadvancedeconomiesacceleratethedecarbonizationoftheireconomies,pressuresGHGemissionsfromcountrieswithstrongclimatepoliciestothosewithweakerreatealevelplayingfieldcouldhavemajorrepercussionsonEMDEsThereareactivediscussionsunderwayonhowclimateeffortshouldbeassessed,intermsofpolicies(carbonpricingandsectoralpolicies)oroutcomes(carbonintensity).utinplaceacarbonborderpriceadjustmentmechanismstartingnpracticethesemeasuresarelikelytobeconcentratedincarbonintensivetrade-exposedsectorssuchassteelandpetrochemicals.Anotherinitiativethathascreatea“climateclub”thatcanserveasabasisforraisingcollectiveclimateambitionanddiscouragingfreeriders.AsimilarproposalisbeingdiscussedinIndia,bringingalobalSouthperspectiveThegoalsofsuchaclubthecriteriaformembershipitsoperatingmodalities,andmethodsofaccountingfordevelopingcountryinterestsallremainunderdiscussion.nandresiliencearenotjustontheagendaforpoorandvulnerablenationsbutEMDEsareparticularlyatriskofimminentextremeclimateimpacts.ThisrangesfromrisingsealevelsandstormsincoastalareastointenseheatinagriculturalareasanddesertificationacrosstheAfricanSahel.Asthemappingandmagnitudeofclimateimpactsandvulnerabilitiesbecomebetterunderstood,especiallyinlower-incomecountries,sodoestherecognitionofthelargeandunmetrequirementsforadaptationandresilienceinvestments.ACenterforSustainableDevelopmentatBrookings10Policyeffortsneedtofocusontheinequalityofclimatevulnerabilitiesacrosssocieties.IPCCreportunderscoredtheclimatevulnerabilitiesposedtopoorernationsanddevelopingregionsandsub-regions.20Thereportemphasizesregionsandpeoplewithdevelopmentconstraints.21Lower-incomepopulationsfacethelargestadaptationgapsbetweenthecurrentandanticipatedlevelsofadaptationneededtorespondtotheclimaterisksandimpacts.22Duetoinfrastructuredeficits,theimpactsoftheseclimaterisksareamplifiedacrosseconomic,social,andenvironmentalsystems.Thesocialnomicstatusabilityageandotherpersonalcharacteristics.23changedevelopingcountriesespeciallytheemechanismtorespondtolossanddamage.Existingsupportconsistslargelyofhumanitarianaidwhichisofteninadequateanddoesnotcoverthelargeeconomiccostswreakedbyclimate-relateddisasters.InsurancemechanismscanmodulaterisksbutputtheburdenondevelopingcountriesDevelopingcountriesarethereforepressingforagreementonalossandinformedbytheGlasgowdialogueSuchafacilitywouldprovidefinancialresourcesthatcoulddirectlyreachaffectedcommunitiesandhelpoperationalizetheSantiagonetwork,whichwasestablishedin2019tocatalyzetechnicalassistanceforvulnerablecountriesinavoidingandaddressingclimatelossanddamage.ldsforestcoverandpercentofthebiodiversitypool,andhenceneedtobeattheforefrontofrelevantglobalprotectionandrestorationefforts.Foralongtime,theprevalentviewindevelopingcountriesofenvironmentalprotectionasaluxurygoodsuggestedthatdevelopmententailsenvironmentalcostsasanunfortunatetradeoffforpovertyreduction.Thishasbeguntoshiftasthecostsofenvironmentaldegradationcontinuetomount—frompollutedairindledforestcoveranddepletedfisheriestootherformsofdamagedecosystemswhichcanalsoworsenexposuretodisease.Naturalecosystemsgeneratedirecteconomicreturns.Byoneestimate,threesectorsclassifiedueaddedperyearInmanycountriesacallforanewenvironmentalconsciousnessiscomingfromthehighestpoliticallevels.ForexampleinJunePrimeMinisterNarendraModilaunchedanew“lifestyle”initiativetoengagepeopleandcommunitiesinshiftingtowardamoreresponsibleenvironment
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