5.全文逻辑梳理+思维导图(必看)

IfcompanieshadnoemployeesRun,TaskRabbit,run:July2030Drivenbytechnologicalandlegalchanges,howfarcanthe“gigeconomy”go?红色标题提出了一种假设情况：如果一个公司没有员工会怎样？为零工经济的提出埋下伏笔。经济学人喜欢在黑色标题处发挥一下，这里TaskRabbit是一个零工经济平台，但是借用了《阿甘正传》里的台词“Run,ForrestGump,run”。类似的还有之前我在公众号里发的一篇文章，描写了美国最高法院大法官鲁斯.巴德.金斯伯格(RuthBaderGinsburg,RBG),标题是这样的，大家看一下红色标题下的黑色标题：VictoriousRBGAportraitofRuthBaderGinsburgasayoungwoman“OntheBasisofSex”isabracingstoryofgenderequalityinAmerica学过英美文学、或者考过专八的小伙伴应该对AportraitofRuthBaderGinsburgasayoungwoman表示熟悉，它来自著名爱尔兰作家詹姆斯・乔伊斯的自传体小说的名字：一位年轻艺术家的画像，英文是APortraitoftheArtistasaYoungMan。本文虽然篇幅较多，但是结构比较清晰，组句成段也比较简单，我只对每段进行一下概括。Thee-mailthatlandedinEvaSmith’smailboxat7pmonFridayOctober13th2028hadtheominoussubjectline“Changes”.Ms.Smith,adirectorataprivate-equityfirminNewYork,openeditwithtrepidation.“Dearteam,”itbegan,“YouhaveprobablyheardrumoursthatweareshakingupthewayweworkatInnovationInvestmentManagement.Wewillbetransitioningtoanewmodel.”AlljobsbelowC-suitelevelaretobereclassified.AllthoseimpactedwillnolongerbeemployeesofIIM.InsteadyouwillworkforIIMonacontractbasis.Thischangesoundsscarierthanitreallyis.ItholdsgreatbenefitsbothforyouandforIIM.Thecompanywillbeabletorespondmorenimblytoarapidlychangingmarketplace.WehopethatyouwillcontinuetoperformservicesforIIMonacontractbasis,butyouwillalsohavetheopportunitytoworkandearnelsewhere.Ifyouhaveanyquestions,pleaseaskIrma,ourhuman-resourceschatbot.Tobeginwith,Ms.SmithdidnotnoticemuchdifferenceinherrelationshipwithIIM.Shewasalreadyworkingonadeal,andwhiledoingsoshemovedseamlesslyfromherfull-time,permanentpositiontoafixed-termcontract.(Herhourlyratewentupby20%,butshebecameresponsibleforherownpensionandhealthinsurance.)Ms.Smithhadhopedtobeinvolvedinthenextdeal.ButshethenlearnedthatsomeonewithaPhDinengineeringfromHarvardhadgotthecontractforthatgig,nother.“It’snotpersonal;theyhavetheperfectskill-setforthisdeal,”saidIIM’sboss.前三段用史密斯的例子引入，时间定位在未来2028年，说明公司工作方式的调整，员工从正式工变成合同工，为下面零工经济的描述做了铺垫。Ms.Smith’sexperienceisincreasinglytypical.Duringthe2020scompaniesacrosstherichworldbegantorelymoreheavilythaneveronoutsourced,temporaryworkersassignedviadigitalplatforms.TimeToCare,aplatformknownasthe“Uberforsocialcare”,organises90%ofthein-homeelderly-carevisitsinAmerica.Workersfromautonomous-taximechanicstoretailassistantstoflightattendantshavejobsassignedonadailyorweeklybasisthroughonlineexchangesthatmatchfirmswithcontractors.本段开始从史密斯的例子辐射到富裕国家，未来它们都会通过数字平台外包临时工，并举例说明。McDonald’s,afast-foodcompany,hastakenthingsthefurthest,outsourcing100%ofitsrestaurantjobs.Servers,cooksandcleanersatMcDonald’sarenolongeremployeesofthefirmoritsfranchisees,butbidforpositionsatthetillonanhourlybasisthroughTaskRabbit,anonlinelabourplatform.“TheFirstFortune500CompanyWithNoEmployees,”trumpetedFortune,abusiness-newsservice,initsprofileofthefirmpublishedin2029.和上一段并列，举例说明工作外包。写作建议：举例最好举大家熟悉，但又不那么容易想到的合适例子。比如这里用麦当劳来例证，最合适不过，看过文章后就留有印象了。Itisallastarkcontrasttothewayworkwasorganisedinthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury.Backthen,businesseswerefairlyself-containedoperations.Mostfunctionswerecompletedin-housebypermanent,full-timeemployees.Manypeopleworkedforonlyoneortwocompaniesduringtheircareers.Thatarrangementhadabusinesslogic.AsRonaldCoase,aneconomist,arguedinthe1930s,itwasusuallycheaperforfirmstohavesomeonethereatalltimes,andtodirectthembyfiat,thantonegotiateandenforceseparatecontractsintheopenmarketforeverytask.本段到第9段，讲了工作组织方式的演变，本段描述的是“科斯模型”，翻译到中国国情下的工作方式就是“正式工”。Inthe1980s,however,theCoaseanmodelbegantobechallengedbyanewwayofworking.Asshareholdersencouragedcompaniestofocusontheircorecompetencies,firmsoutsourcedcertainroles—cleaning,accountancy,branding—tospecialistproviders.Duringthe1990soutsourcingfeversweptthroughthebusinessworld.CharlesHandy,amanagementguru,spokeofthe“shamrockorganisation”,whichhedefinedasa“coreofessentialexecutivesandworkerssupportedbyoutsidecontractorsandpart-timehelp.”时间到了20世纪80年代，演变到了“三叶草组织”，即核心高管和员工+外部承包商+兼职帮手。Foryears,however,theshamrocksstruggledtoflower.Outsourcingranupagainsttechnologicallimitations.Firmscouldnotknowforsurethattheywouldbeabletofindtherightsortoflabourintheopenmarketasquicklyasitwasneeded.Companiesweretherebyforcedtoholdontomanyemployeeswhowerenotreallycentraltotheirbusiness.Thatarrangementsuitedmanyworkers,whopreferredthestabilityofpermanentemploymenttothealternativeofflittingbetweenshort-termcontracts,whichtheywouldalsofinddifficulttoorganise.本段承接上段，描写了三叶草模式外包中遇到的问题。Butthatallchangedaround2010,withtheriseofgig-economyplatformssuchasTaskRabbit,PeoplePerHourandExpert360,capableofquicklyandseamlesslymatchingworkerswithemployers.Ratingsgivenbypreviousclientsprovidedawaytoassessquality.Thisenabledfurtherchunksoffirms’activitiestobeoutsourced.Thegigeconomystartedsmall,butwithinadecadeitwasgrowingrapidly;itsposter-childwasUber,aride-hailingservice.In2018roughly1%ofworkerswerelistedonatleastonelabourplatform;by2028thatfigurehadrisento30%.MoreandmorecompaniesarestartingtolooklikeIIM.这段开始第一次提到了零工经济，通过一系列的铺垫，终于开启了零工经济的专门讲解。Twofactorsexplaintheboomingigging.Thefirstischangestothelaw.Foryearsthegigeconomystruggledagainstrepeatedlegalchallenges.Inmanycases,courtsfound,gig-economyworkerswerebeingclassifiedasself-employedwhentheywerereallyemployees.(Thismeantworkerswerebeingdeniedthingslikeminimum-wageprotectionandsickpay.)In2020FindMeChef,aplatformlinkingcookswithrestaurants,lostarulingbeforeanemploymenttribunalinSeattle,broughtbyaworkerwhohadworkedona“temporary”basisforaclientforanentireyear.FindMeChefhadtopaymillionsofdollarsinback-payandotherbenefitstoitschefs.AndUberlostcaseaftercaseinemploymenttribunalsaroundtheworld,whichforcedittostopclassifyingitsworkersasindependentcontractorsinsomecountries.第10段到12段讲到推动零工经济繁荣的第一个因素——法律。从事零工经济的人通过法律争取自己的身份和权利，认为自己应该被定义为“从属合同工”，应该享受病假工资这样的权利。另外在谈到政府应该发挥作用的时候，作者还不忘拉出来特朗普调侃调侃，营造一篇共和党，民主党意见一致的祥和景象，有点喜感！Amidsuchsetbacks,gig-economycompaniesarguedthatgovernmentsoughttobeontheirside.Theypointedoutthatgigworkcouldbeanimportantrouteintothelabourmarketfortheunemployed,andshouldthereforebeencouraged,notregulatedoutofexistence.InAmericatheplatformslobbiedfuriouslyforthecreationofanewcategoryofemployment,somewherebetweenself-employmentandemployment.Knownas“dependentcontractor”status,thethirdcategorywouldgiveworkerstheflexibilityofself-employmentbutwithentitlementtosomeworkers’rights,suchassickpay.PresidentDonaldTrumpheededthecall.In2020heintroducedapackageoflabour-marketreformswhichprovidedfortheintroductionof“dependentcontractor”employmentstatus.ThepackagewasbackedbyRepublicansasawaytofreecompaniesfromredtape,andbysomeDemocratsasawayguaranteesomebasicrightstogig-economyworkers.Onthedaythereformwasannounced,thesharepricesofthebigonline-labourplatformsjumped.Othercountriessoonfollowedsuit.High-unemploymentcountriesinEuropesawderegulationasawaytoboostjobs.Othershopeditwouldattractforeigninvestment.Thesecondbigdriverbehindthegig-economyboomhasbeentechnology.Progressinartificialintelligence(AI)hasmadefindingtherightworkerforadiscretetaskquickerandeasierthanever,becausemodernAIsystemscanlookpastcruderatingssystemsandusearangeofsignalstodeterminewhetheracandidateisagoodfit.Since2026LinkedIn,aprofessional-networkingservice,hasofferedaguaranteethatitcanfindasuitableworkerforanytaskwithinsixhours—and,thankstoadealwithUber,canensurethattheyareon-sitewithinoneworkingday.本段讲了推动零工经济发展的第二大利器一一AI,因为AI可以迅速将工作和人员进行匹配。Allthishasgivenoutsourcinganewleaseoflife.Thelatestwaveoffunctionsbeingcontractedoutincludesadministrativework,marketingandtraining.Andsomefirms,likeIIM,aregoingevenfurther,sheddingemployeeswhoperformcoreoperationsandrehiringthemasshort-termcontractorstodospecifictasks.True,outsourcinghasnotalwaysgonewell.InDecember2028anattemptbyagroupofAmericanhospitalstouseon-demanddoctorsledtoashortageofstaffoverChristmas,whenmanydecidednottoworkeventhough“surgepricing”hadbumpeduptheirhourlyrate.Somecompaniesreportthatmoraleamongcontractedworkersislow,becausetheydonotfeelpartofateam.Othersworrythatsomeofthe“tacitknowledge”thatemployeesgainthroughworkingatabusinessfull-time—thecultureofafirm,say,orhowtoapproachaparticularboss—islost.本段属于对以上两大促进零工经济繁荣的利器的总结，并顺道列举了外包工作会出现的一些问题。Butcompaniesthatembracedtheshiftawayfromhavingemployeeshavereapedbiggains.Theynolongerneedtopaypeopletobeintheofficewhendemandisslack.Theycanfindtheworkerwiththeperfectskillsforatask,notjustsomeonewillingtohaveago.Becauseindividualworkers’outputisfinelymeasured,andtheirproficiencyatcompletingataskbecomespartoftheironlineprofiles,noonecanbelazyandgetawaywithit.Productivitygrowth,whichhadstagnatedintherichworldafterthefinancialcrisisof2008-09,hasacceleratedsincethemid-2020s.Manyworkershavealsobenefited.Forthosewithsought-afterskills,itcanbefarmorelucrativetoflitfromcontracttocontractthantoworkforasinglefirm.Afterabumpystart,Ms.Smithnowearnsmorethanshedidasanemployee.ShechecksExpert360andLinkedInthreetimesaday,playingoffrivalbiddersforherlabouragainsteachother.Alongsideon-and-offworkforIIM,sheconsultsforotherinvestmentfirms,writesarticlesandofferslifestylecoaching.15.16段讲了从零工经济中收益的公司和个人，而这里的个人指的是有技术的人。Workerswithoutsuchvaluableskills,however,arenotdoingnearlyaswell.Thebiggestproblemstemmedfromthe2020labourreform.Dependentcontractorsworkingthroughonlineplatforms,unlikeemployees,arenotentitledtoaminimumwage.Itisdifficultfortradeunionstoorganiseworkerswhoarehighlydispersed.Automati