【麦肯锡】mgi数字全球化完整报告数字全球化-全球流动的新时代

DIGITALGLOBALIZATION:

THENEWERAOFGLOBALFLOWS

MARCH2016

HIGHLIGHTS

43

Broadeningparticipation

73

Boostingproductivity

andGDP

85

Changingtheway

companiesgoglobal

Copyright©McKinsey&Company2016

Inthe25yearssinceitsfounding,theMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)hassoughttodevelopadeeperunderstandingoftheevolvingglobaleconomy.AsthebusinessandeconomicsresearcharmofMcKinsey&Company,MGIaimstoprovideleadersinthecommercial,public,andsocialsectorswiththefactsandinsightsonwhichtobasemanagementandpolicydecisions.Weareproudtoberankedthetopprivate-sectorthinktank,accordingtotheauthoritative2015GlobalGoToThinkTankIndex,anannualreportissuedbytheUniversityofPennsylvaniaThinkTanksandCivilSocietiesProgramattheLauderInstitute.

MGIresearchcombinesthedisciplinesofeconomicsandmanagement,employingtheanalyticaltoolsofeconomicswiththeinsightsofbusinessleaders.Our“micro-to-macro”methodologyexaminesmicroeconomicindustrytrendstobetterunderstandthebroadmacroeconomicforcesaffectingbusinessstrategyandpublicpolicy.MGI’sin-depthreportshavecoveredmorethan20countriesand30industries.Currentresearchfocusesonsixthemes:productivityandgrowth,naturalresources,labormarkets,theevolutionofglobalfinancialmarkets,theeconomicimpactoftechnologyandinnovation,andurbanization.

Recentreportshaveassessedglobalflows;theeconomiesofBrazil,Mexico,Nigeria,andJapan;China’sdigitaltransformation;India’spathfrompovertytoempowerment;affordablehousing;theeffectsofglobaldebt;andtheeconomicsoftacklingobesity.

MGIisledbythreeMcKinsey&Companydirectors:RichardDobbs,JamesManyika,andJonathanWoetzel.MichaelChui,SusanLund,AnuMadgavkar,andJaanaRemesserveasMGIpartners.ProjectteamsareledbytheMGIpartnersandagroupofseniorfellows,andincludeconsultantsfromMcKinsey&Company’sofficesaroundtheworld.TheseteamsdrawonMcKinsey&Company’sglobalnetworkofpartnersandindustryandmanagementexperts.Inaddition,leadingeconomists,includingNobellaureates,actasresearchadvisers.

ThepartnersofMcKinsey&CompanyfundMGI’sresearch;itisnotcommissionedbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution.ForfurtherinformationaboutMGIandtodownloadreports,pleasevisit

/mgi

.

DIGITALGLOBALIZATION:

THENEWERAOFGLOBALFLOWS

MARCH2016

JamesManyika|SanFrancisco

SusanLund|Washington,DC

JacquesBughin|Brussels

JonathanWoetzel|Shanghai

KalinStamenov|NewYork

DhruvDhingra|NewYork

PREFACE

Thewebofglobaleconomicconnectionsisgrowingdeeper,broader,andmoreintricate.Yetmuchofthepublicdiscussionsurroundingglobalizationisstuckonthenarrowtopicoftradesurplusesanddeficits.Thislensfailstotakeintoaccountthenewandmorecomplexrealityofadigitallyconnectedglobaleconomy.WhiletheglobalgoodstradeandfinancialflowshaveflattenedsincetheGreatRecession,cross-borderflowsofdataaresurging.Theynowtietheworldeconomytogetherjustassurelyasflowsoftraditionalmanufacturedgoods.

Twoyearsago,theMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)setouttopaintacomprehensivepictureofhowglobalizationisevolving.Theresultingreport,Globalflowsinadigitalage:Howtrade,finance,people,anddataconnecttheworldeconomy,assessedthenetworkofcross-borderinflowsandoutflowsoftrade,services,finance,people,anddataanditsinfluenceoneconomicgrowth.Buildingonthatearlierwork,thisreportprovidesamoredetailedanalysisofhowglobalflowsarecontinuingtoevolve.Itoffersnewinsightsintohowcompaniesandcountriesareparticipatinginthewebofflowsandextendsoureconometricanalysis,drawingonimproveddataandemployingmoresophisticatedmethodology.Wefindevenstrongerevidenceoftheeconomicvalueofparticipatinginglobalflows—andwefurtherfindthatdataflowsaccountforasubstantialportionofthatimpact.Bothinflowsandoutflowsmatterforgrowthastheycirculateideas,research,technologies,talent,andbestpracticesaroundtheworld.

Today’smoredigitalformofglobalizationischangingwhoisparticipating,howbusinessisdoneacrossborders,howrapidlycompetitionmoves,andwheretheeconomicbenefitsareflowing.Eventhoughadvancedeconomiesingeneralcontinuetobetheleadersinmostflows,thedoorhasopenedtomorecountries,tosmallcompaniesandstartups,andtobillionsofindividuals.Ourpreviousresearchfoundthebiggestbenefitsoftradeflowsgotocountriesatthecenteroftheglobalnetwork.Interestingly,thisreportfindsthatcountriesattheperipheryofthenetworkofdataflowsstandtogainevenmorethanthoseatthecenter.Theconvergenceofglobalizationanddigitizationmeansthatbusinessleadersandpolicymakerswillneedtoreassesstheirstrategies—andgiventhatweareonlyintheveryearlystagesofthisphenomenon,enormousopportunitiesarestillatstake.

ThisresearchwasledbyJamesManyika,adirectoroftheMcKinseyGlobalInstitutebasedinSanFrancisco;SusanLund,anMGIpartnerbasedinWashington,DC;JacquesBughin,aMcKinseydirectorbasedinBrusselswhoisacoreleaderoftheFirm’sHighTech,Telecom,andMediaPractice,acurrentmemberoftheMGICouncil,andanincomingdirectorofMGI;andJonathanWoetzel,anMGIdirectorbasedinShanghai.Theprojectteam,ledbyKalinStamenovandDhruvDhingra,includedLauraCappellin,RiteshJain,AyushMittal,KatieRamish,SoyokoUmeno,andAmberYang.EstebanArias,JoanaCarreiro,CarlosMolina,MoiraPierce,andVivienSingerprovidedvaluableresearchandanalyticssupport.LisaRenaudservedassenioreditor.Sincerethanksgotoourcolleaguesinoperations,design,

March2016

production,andexternalrelations,includingTimBeacom,MarisaCarder,MattCooke,DeadraHenderson,RichardJohnson,JuliePhilpot,MaryReddy,RebecaRobboy,MargoShimasaki,andPatrickWhite.

WethankMcKinseycolleaguesJörgBromberger,MichaelChui,Diaan-YiLin,andSreeRamaswamyforsharingtheirexpertiseandinsights.Specialthanksgotothevolunteerswhohelpedusconductoursurveyofglobalstartups:RicardoBernal,MayankBishnoi,OleksandrBondarenko,TamasCsikai,KarolDolega,RishikaGarg,ThomasGrandin,CatherineHart,ValeriaLaszlo,MohatoLekena,ThandiLuzuka,VictoriaMuwanga-Zake,MohitNarotam,andSiyiAmyShi.

Ouracademicadvisersprovidedvaluableinsightsandchallengedourthinking.WearegratefultoMatthewJ.Slaughter,thePaulDanosDeanoftheTuckSchoolofBusinessatDartmouth;MichaelSpence,NobellaureateandWilliamR.BerkleyProfessorinEconomicsandBusinessatNYUSternSchoolofBusiness;andLauraTyson,professorofbusinessadministrationandeconomicsattheHaasSchoolofBusiness,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.MeritE.Janow,deanoftheSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairsatColumbiaUniversity,offerednewperspectivesanddirectionsforourresearch.PhilipR.Lane,GovernoroftheCentralBankofIrelandandformerWhatleyProfessorofPoliticalEconomyatTrinityCollege,Dublin,generouslyshareddataandperspectivesontheinternationalinvestmentpositionsofcountries.

Anumberofindividualsandorganizationsgenerouslycontributedtheirtime,data,andexpertise.Fortheirsupportinsurveyingstartups,wethank:DonnaHarris,PatrickMcAnaney,MorganGress,andKaitlinWallsof1776,aglobalincubatorandventurefunddedicatedtoacceleratinginnovationinareasofessentialhumanneed.WearealsogratefultoMollyJackmanofFacebook;UsmanAhmedofPayPal;AlanEliasofeBay;RobertPepperofCisco;JarradHubbardofTeleGeography;andUweDeichmann,DeepakMishra,andDariaTaglionioftheWorldBank.Withoutthem,thisreportwouldnothavebeenpossible.

ThisreportcontributestoMGI’smissiontohelpbusinessandpolicyleadersunderstandtheforcestransformingtheglobaleconomy,identifystrategiclocations,andprepareforthenextwaveofgrowth.AswithallMGIresearch,thisworkisindependentandhasnotbeencommissionedorsponsoredinanywaybyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution.WewelcomeyourcommentsontheresearchatMGI@.

RichardDobbs

Director,McKinseyGlobalInstitute

London

JamesManyika

Director,McKinseyGlobalInstitute

SanFrancisco

JonathanWoetzel

Director,McKinseyGlobalInstitute

Shanghai

©Shutterstock

CONTENTS

HIGHLIGHTS

30

Soaringcross-border

dataflows

57

TheMGI

ConnectednessIndex

63

Howregionsand

citiesparticipate

Inbrief

ExecutivesummaryPage1

1.AneweraofdigitalglobalizationPage23

2.DigitalplatformsopenthedoortonewparticipantsPage43

3.Howcountries,cities,andregionsareconnectingPage55

4.GlobalflowsboosteconomicgrowthPage73

5.CompetinginadigitalgloballandscapePage85

6.ThenewworldofpolicychallengesPage97

TechnicalappendixPage105

BibliographyPage137

INBRIEF

DIGITALGLOBALIZATION:

THENEWERAOFGLOBALFLOWS

Therapidlygrowingflowsofinternationaltradeandfinancethatcharacterizedthe20thcenturyhaveflattenedordeclinedsince2008.Yetglobalizationisnotmovingintoreverse.Insteaddigitalflowsaresoaring—transmittinginformation,ideas,andinnovationaroundtheworldandbroadeningparticipationintheglobaleconomy.

ƒTheworldismoreinterconnectedthanever.Forthefirsttimeinhistory,emergingeconomiesarecounterpartsonmorethanhalfofglobaltradeflows,andSouth-Southtradeisthefastest-growingtypeofconnection.

ƒWhileflowsofgoodsandfinancehavelostmomentum,usedcross-borderbandwidthhasgrown45timeslargersince2005.Itisprojectedtogrowbyanotherninetimesinthenextfiveyearsasdigitalflowsofcommerce,information,searches,video,communication,andintracompanytrafficcontinuetosurge.

ƒDigitalplatformschangetheeconomicsofdoingbusinessacrossborders,bringingdownthecostofinternationalinteractionsandtransactions.Theycreatemarketsandusercommunitieswithglobalscale,providingbusinesseswithahugebaseofpotentialcustomersandeffectivewaystoreachthem.

ƒSmallbusinessesworldwidearebecoming“micro-multinationals”byusingdigitalplatformssuchaseBay,Amazon,Facebook,andAlibabatoconnectwithcustomersandsuppliersinothercountries.Eventhesmallestenterprisescanbebornglobal:86percentoftech-basedstartupswesurveyedreportsome

typeofcross-borderactivity.Theabilityofsmallbusinessestoreachnewmarketssupportseconomicgrowtheverywhere.

ƒIndividualsareparticipatinginglobalizationdirectly,usingdigitalplatformstolearn,findwork,showcasetheirtalent,andbuildpersonalnetworks.Some900millionpeoplehaveinternationalconnectionsonsocialmedia,and360milliontakepartincross-bordere-commerce.

ƒOveradecade,globalflowshaveraisedworldGDPbyatleast10percent;thisvaluetotaled$7.8trillionin2014alone.Dataflowsnowaccountforalargershareofthisimpactthanglobaltradeingoods.Globalflowsgenerateeconomicgrowthprimarilybyraisingproductivity,andcountriesbenefitfrombothinflowsandoutflows.

ƒTheMGIConnectednessIndexoffersacomprehensivelookathowcountriesparticipateininflowsandoutflowsofgoods,services,finance,people,anddata.Singaporetopsthelatestrankings,followedbytheNetherlands,theUnitedStates,andGermany.ChinahassurgedfromNo.25toNo.7.

ƒAlthoughmorenationsareparticipating,globalflowsremainconcentratedamongasmallsetofleadingcountries.Thegapsbetweentheleadersandtherestoftheworldareclosingveryslowly,butcatch-upgrowthrepresentsamajoropportunityforlaggingcountries.Someeconomiescouldgrowby50percentormoreoverthelongtermbyacceleratingparticipation.

ƒManycompaniesgrewmorecomplexandinefficientastheyexpandedacrossborders.Butdigitaltechnologiescantamecomplexityandcreateleanermodelsforgoingglobal.Thisisamomentforcompaniestorethinktheirorganizationalstructures,products,assets,andcompetitors.

Countriescannotaffordtoshutthemselvesofffromglobalflows,butnarrowexportstrategiesmisstherealvalueofglobalization:theflowofideas,talent,andinputsthatspurinnovationandproductivity.Digitalglobalizationmakespolicychoicesevenmorecomplex.Valuechainsareshifting,newhubsareemerging,andeconomicactivityisbeingtransformed.Thistransitioncreatesnewopeningsforcountriestocarveoutprofitablerolesintheglobaleconomy.Thoseopportunitieswillfavorlocationsthatbuildtheinfrastructure,institutions,andbusinessenvironmentsthattheircompaniesandcitizensneedtoparticipatefully.

Globalflowsincreaseeconomicgrowth

$2.8T

GDPincreasefromdata

flows,largerimpactthan

goodstrade

10%

IncreaseinworldGDP,worth$7.8Tin2014

~50%

PotentialGDPboostforsomecountriesbyincreasingparticipationin

globalflows

Theneweraofdigitalglobalization

Globalflowsoftradeandfinanceareflattening,whiledataflowsaresoaring

FINANCE

TRADE

DATA

1980

2014

45X

growthin

dataflows

2005–2014

Digitaltechnologiesarechanginghowbusinessisdoneacrossbordersandbroadeningparticipation

Largemultinationals

Attaintrulyglobalscalewithnewmarketsandsuppliers

SMEs

Usedigitalplatformstofindcustomersandsuppliersabroad

Newstrategiesforproducts,

50MonFacebook,10MonAlibaba,

assets,organization

2MonAmazon

Startups

Individuals

>80%oftech-basedstartupsare

“bornglobal”

Newwaystowork,learn,andcommunicateacrossborders

Foreigncustomers,financing,

suppliersfromdayone

>900Mhaveinternationalconnectionsonsocialmedia

©GettyImages

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

SomewhereinKenya,agirllogsonforapersonalizedmathlessonfromCalifornia-basedKhanAcademy.ThousandsofSyrianrefugeesrelyonFacebookupdatesforthelatestinformationtoguidetheirjourneythroughEurope.Amultinationalenergygiantlaunchesplanstousesensorson4,000oilwellsaroundtheworldtomonitorproductionremotely.AmanufacturerinAustraliabuyscomponentsfromaChinesesupplieronAlibaba,andaclinicaltrialinIndiatransmitspatientdatatoUSpharmaceuticalresearchers.

Theworldhasbecomemoreintricatelyconnectedthaneverbefore.Backin1990,thetotalvalueofglobalflowsofgoods,services,andfinanceamountedto$5trillion,or24percentofworldGDP.Thereweresome435millioninternationaltouristarrivals,andthepublicInternetwasinitsinfancy.Fastforwardto2014:some$30trillionworthofgoods,services,andfinance,equivalentto39percentofGDP,wasexchangedacrosstheworld’sborders.Internationaltouristarrivalssoaredabove1.1billion.AndtheInternetisnowaglobalnetworkinstantlyconnectingbillionsofpeopleandcountlesscompaniesaroundtheworld.

Flowsofphysicalgoodsandfinancewerethehallmarksofthe20th-centuryglobaleconomy,buttodaythoseflowshaveflattenedordeclined.Twenty-first-centuryglobalizationisincreasinglydefinedbyflowsofdataandinformation.Thisphenomenonnowunderpinsvirtuallyallcross-bordertransactionswithintraditionalflowswhilesimultaneouslytransmittingavaluablestreamofideasandinnovationaroundtheworld.1

Theshifttoamoredigitalformofglobalizationchangeswhoisparticipating,howbusinessisdoneacrossborders,andwheretheeconomicbenefitsareflowing.

Digitizationchangestheeconomicsofglobalizationinseveralways.Asdigitalplatformsbecomeglobalinscope,theyaredrivingdownthecostofcross-bordercommunicationsandtransactions,allowingbusinessestoconnectwithcustomersandsuppliersinanycountry.Globalizationwasonceforlargemultinationalcorporations,butplatformsreducetheminimumscaleneededtogoglobal,enablingsmallbusinessandentrepreneursaroundtheworldtoparticipate.Asaresult,newtypesofcompetitorscanemergerapidlyfromanycorneroftheworld,increasingpressureonindustryincumbents.

Morethaneverbefore,companiesandcountriescannotaffordtoignoretheopportunitiesbeyondtheirownborders.Oureconometricresearchindicatesthatglobalflowsofgoods,foreigndirectinvestment,anddatahaveincreasedcurrentglobalGDPbyroughly10percentcomparedtowhatwouldhaveoccurredinaworldwithoutanyflows.Thisvaluewasequivalentto$7.8trillionin2014alone.Dataflowsaccountfor$2.8trillionofthiseffect,exertingalargerimpactongrowththantraditionalgoodsflows.Thisisaremarkabledevelopmentgiventhattheworld’stradenetworkshavedevelopedovercenturiesbutcross-borderdataflowswerenascentjust15yearsago.

1Thisresearchbuildsonthe2014McKinseyGlobalInstitutereportGlobalflowsinadigitalage:Howtrade,finance,people,anddataconnecttheworldeconomy.

Globalflowssupportgrowthbyraisingproductivityandcreatingmoreefficientmarketswithtrulyglobalscale.Butnotallcountriesaremakingthemostofthispotential.OurupdatedMGIConnectednessIndexrankscountriesoninflowsandoutflowsofgoods,services,finance,people,anddata.Advancedeconomiesarestillthemostgloballyconnected.Althoughmoredevelopingcountriesaredeepeningtheirparticipation,theyarenarrowingthegapwiththeleadingadvancedeconomiesonlyveryslowlyovertime.

Acceleratingcatch-upgrowthisamajoropportunityforthedevelopingworld.Our2014reportshowedthatcountriesinthecenteroftradenetworksderivemorebenefitfromgoodsflowsthancountrieswithfewconnections.Butournewresearchshowsthatdataflowsofferstrongereconomicbenefitstocountriesontheperipheryoftheworld’sdigitalnetworks.

Thenewageofdigitalglobalizationalsoposeschallenges.Companiescanenternewmarkets,buttheyareexposedtopricingpressures,aggressiveglobalcompetitors,anddisruptivedigitalbusinessmodels.Datahastobeprotectedagainstcybercrime.Studentscaneducatethemselvesonlinefromanywhereonearth,buttheirviewintoothersocietiescanheightentheirimpatiencewithbleakjobprospectsathome.Socialmediacreatesglobalcommunitiesbutalsoallowsnetworksofextremiststoconnect.Itwilltakemoreinternationalcoordinationtodealwithmanyoftheseissues.Today’sversionofglobalizationisvastlymorecomplexandfast-paced,butconnectednesscanbeapathtogrowth.

ANEWERAOFDIGITALGLOBALIZATIONHASBEGUN

Theworldhasneverbeenmoredeeplyconnectedbycommerce,communication,andtravelthanitistoday.Butthepatternofglobalizationisshifting.Tradewasoncedominatedbytangiblegoodsandwaslargelyconfinedtoadvancedeconomiesandtheirlargemultinationalcompanies.Todayglobaldataflowsaresurging,anddigitalplatformsallowmorecountriesandsmallerenterprisestoparticipate.Thisshifthasfar-reachingimplications.

Soaringcross-borderdataflowsnowgeneratemoreeconomicvaluethantraditionalflowsoftradedgoods.

Aftera20-yearperiodofgrowingroughlytwiceasfastastheworldeconomy,globalflowsofgoods,services,andfinancehitroughly$30trillionin2007,peakingat53percentofglobalGDP.Butthisrapidexpansionhasstoppedinitstracks.Growthinglobalgoodstradehasflattened,financialflowshavefallensharply,andtradeinserviceshaspostedonlymodestgrowth.Theseflowshavefinallyregainedtheirpre-recessionlevelsintermsofdollarvalue,buttheyarenowjust39percentofworldGDP(ExhibitE1).

Manyobserverspointtothistrendasevidencethatglobalizationhasstopped.2Wehaveadifferentview:globalizationhasinsteadenteredaneweradefinedbydataflowsthattransmitinformation,ideas,andinnovation.Digitalplatformscreatemoreefficientandtransparentglobalmarketsinwhichfar-flungbuyersandsellersfindeachotherwithafewclicks.Thenear-zeromarginalcostsofdigitalcommunicationsandtransactionsopennewpossibilitiesforconductingbusinessacrossbordersonamassivescale.

2See,forexample,DavidSmick,“Couldglobalizationcrackup?”InternationalEconomy,fall2012;JoshuaCooperRamo,“Globalismgoesbackward,”Fortune,November20,2012;andJeffreyRothfeder,“Thegreatunravelingofglobalization,”WashingtonPost,April24,2015.

2McKinseyGlobalInstituteExecutivesummary

ExhibitE1

After20yearsofrapidgrowth,traditionalflowsofgoods,services,andfinancehavedeclinedrelativetoGDP

Flowsofgoods,services,andfinance,1980–2014

$trillion,nominalAllflowsas%ofGDP53

49

-14p

.p.

46

41

4141

3837

39

Finance

Services

Goods

37

37

35

32

32

30

31

30

3232

29

29

29

2828

26

27

26

24

22

21

24

24

18

23

2424

17

22

21

2223

12

13

9

8

910101011

6

6

6

5

455

33333334

19801990200020072014

SOURCE:UNCTAD;IMFBalanceofPayments;WorldBank;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

Traditionalflowsofgoods,services,andfinancehaveflattened

Fortwodecades,theworld’stradeingoods(includingcommodities,finishedgoods,andintermediateinputs)grewroughlytwiceasfastasglobalGDPasmajormultinationalsexpandedtheirsupplychainsandestablishednewbasesofproductionincountrieswithlow-costlabor.Globaltradeingoodssoaredfrom13.8percentofworldGDPin1986to26.6percentin2008ontheeveoftheGreatRecession.Afterasharpdeclineandshort-livedrebound,however,thegoodstradehasbeengrowingmoreslowlythanworldGDPinrecentyears,puzzlingeconomistsandbusinessleadersalike.Someofthisdeclineiscyclical.Ouranalysissuggeststhatweakdemandandplummetingpricesforcommoditiesaccountfornearlythree-quartersofthedeclineintrade.

Buttradeinbothfinishedandintermediatemanufacturedgoodshasalsodeclined,thankstoseveralstructuralforces.Themakersofmanyfinishedgoodsarebeginningtoplacelessimportanceonlaborcostsandmoreonspeedtomarketandnon-laborcosts.Asaresult,someproductionismovingclosertoendconsumers.Tradeisalsodecliningformanyintermediategoodssuchaschemicals,paper,textilefabrics,andcommunicationsandelectricalequipment.Thissuggeststhatglobalvaluechainsmaybeshortening,atleastinpartbecauseofthecostofmanagingcomplex,lengthysupplychains.

Inthedecadeahead,theglobalgoodstrademaycontinuetodeclinerelativetoworldGDP.Ataminimum,itisunlikelytoresumerapidgrowth.Notonlyarefactorcostschanging,but3Dprintingandothertechnologiesalsohavethepotentialtotransformhow—andwhere—goodssuchaselectronics,vehicleparts,othertransportationequipment,machineryandelectricalequipment,medicalinstruments,andapparelareproduced.

Cross-borderfinancialflows—whichincludelending,foreigndirectinvestment(FDI),andpurchasesofequitiesandbonds—linktogethernationalfinancialmarkets,connectingborrowersandsaversfromdifferentcountries.Theygrewfrom$0.5trillionin1980

(4.1percentofglobalGDP)to$11.9trillionin2007(20.7percentofglobalGDP).But2007provedtobetheheightofaglobalcreditbubble.Sincethenfinancialflowshavefallentoless

McKinseyGlobalInstitute

Digitalglobalization:Theneweraofglobalflows

3

thanhalftheirpreviousvalue($5.2trillionin2014);theyareonlyone-thirdashighrelativetoglobalGDP.3Adeclineincross-borderlendingaccountsforthemajorityoftheoveralldropinfinancialflowsandmayreflectareturntolong-termtrend.ButothertypesofportfolioinvestmentandFDIhavealsofallen,raisingconcernsaboutfinancingforemergingmarkets.

Acceleratingflowsofdataandinformationarechangingthedynamicsofglobalization

Whileglobalflowsoftradeandfinancehavelostmomentum,thevolumeofdatabeingtransmittedacrossbordershassurged,creatinganintricatewebthatconnectscountries,companies,andindividuals(ExhibitsE2andE3).4

Globalflowsofdataprimarilyconsistofinformation,searches,communications,transactions,video,andintracompanytraffic.Theyunderpinandenablevirtuallyeveryotherkindofcross-borderflow.Containershipsstillmoveproductstomarketsaroundtheworld,butnowcustomersorderthemonline,tracktheirmovementusingRFIDcodes,andpayforthemviadigitaltransactions.AlthoughvideosuseamajorityofInternetbandwidth,theInternetofThingsandotherbusinessapplicationsaregainingimportance.Indeed,Ciscoestimatesthatmachine-to-machineconnectionswillaccountformorethan40percentofglobaldevicesandconnectionsby2019.5

ExhibitE2

Cross-borderdataflowsaresurgingandconnectingmorecountries

Usedcross-borderbandwidth

RegionsNAEUASLAMEAFOC

UnitedStatesandCanada