UberFreight-自动驾驶技术在卡车运输中的未来-使用自动卡车发展货运的路线图（英）

Thefutureofself-drivingtechnologyintrucking

Aroadmapforevolvingfreighttransportationwithautonomoustrucks

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Thefutureofself-drivingtechnologyintrucking

Contents

Truckingisprimedforself-drivingtechnology

Thehub-to-hubmodel

Whatabouttruckingjobs?

Autonomoustruckingwillexpandincrementally

Conclusion

TheUberFreightteam

Endnotes

3

6

13

15

17

18

19

Afteradecadeofdevelopment,

self-drivingtechnologyisstarting

tohittheroads

In2021,self-drivingvehiclestraveledapproximately4millionmilesinCaliforniaalone,doublingthepreviousyear’srecord.1Thetruckingindustryiswellpositionedtoreapthebenefitsofthistechnology,whichwillbeenjoyedbytruckdrivers,carriers,shippers,androadusers.

Thefirst,andmostimportant,benefitisbetterroadsafety.In2019,more

than5,000liveswerelostinlargetruckcrashes,including892truckoccupants.2Aboutone-thirdoftheseaccidentsoccurredoninterstates,freeways,andexpressways.Vehicle-andenvironment-relatedfactorsaccountedforonly13%ofthesecrashes.Theremaining87%werecausedbydrivers’performance/non-performance(21%),decisions(38%),andrecognition(28%).3

Whilethesafetybenefitsarelikelytobewelcomedbyall,somestatethattheeffectsthistechnologywillhaveonthetruckingindustryasawhole,andontruckdriversinparticular,arelessfullyunderstood.AtUberFreight,weenvisionabrightfutureforthetruckingindustry,

onewheretruckdriversandself-drivingtrucksconnectlong-haulandlocal-haulroutes,thuscomplementingeachotheroncapabilitiesandpreferences.Wethinkthismodelwillsupportthegrowthintruckfreightdemand,createsaferroads,providebettertruck-drivingjobs,andmakegoodsmoreaffordableandavailableforeveryone.

Inthispaper,wedemonstratewhytruckingisthefasterroutetocommercializeandscaleself-drivingtechnology.Wethenlayoutthehub-to-hubmodel,whichwillallowautonomoustrucks(ATs)tooperatealongsidethosedrivenbypeople.Thismodelachievessynergiesthatbenefitcarriers,drivers,andautonomousvehicle(AV)developers.Weshowthatautonomoustruckingwillnotbeadispensableservicethatsimplyaimsatreducingthecostoftrucking.Instead,itwillbecomeanessentialcomponentofsupplychainsthathelpssatisfythegrowingdemandwhileofferingdriversbetterworkingconditions.Finally,weoutlineourpredictionsforhowthistechnologywillunfoldoverthecomingyears.

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Truckingisprimedforself-drivingtechnology

Atrillion-dollarmarket4

SurfacefreighttransportationintheUSisa$1.06trillionmarket.5Truckingconstitutesthelargestshareofthismarket,asitmovesabout64%ofthetotalUSfreight(bytonnage)andapproximately80%ofthetotalinlandfreight.6In2021,for-hiretruckingcarriersmade$384billionintotalrevenue.7Privatetruckingfleetsconstituteanequallylargemarket,whichbringsthetotaltruckingmarketsizecloseto$800billion.Globally,thetotaladdressablemarket(TAM)offreight($4trillion)iscomparabletothatofridesharinganddelivery(morethan$5trillioneach).8

Autonomoustruckingsolvesbiggerpainpoints

Despitegrowingdemand,thetruckingindustrycontinuestobleedskilledlaborasexperienceddriversretireorchooseothercareers.TheAmericanTruckingAssociations(ATA)estimatesthattheUSneedstofillonemillionjobscumulativelybetween2020and2030.9Approximately80%oftheseareduetoretirements,earlyexits,anddriverspushedoutoftheindustry.Theremaining20%areneededtosupportgrowthinfreightdemand.

Thetruckingindustryhasalsostruggledwithattractingyoungerdriverstotheworkforce.Figure1showshowthetruck-driverpopulationintheUShasbeenagingwithtime.Lifestyleissues,notablytimeawayfromhome,areamongtheprimaryfactorsbehindthistrend.Potentialtruckershavetowaituntiltheyare21togettheirinterstateCDLlicense,10thehoursarelongandgrueling,andtruckingkeepsdriversawayfromhomeforupto200nightsayear.11

Ontheotherhand,othersectors,suchasconstruction,manufacturing,andwarehousing,canofferblue-collarjobsundermorefavorableconditions.Overthepastdecade,parceldeliveryemploymenthasdoubledandwarehousingemploymenthasalmosttripled.13

Figure1.Agingpopulationoftruckdrivers12

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1994200320132021

20to24years

25to34years

35to44years

45to54years

55to64years

65yearsandover

Inpreviousyears,marketdynamicsalonewerenotenoughtobringdriversback.Onthedemandside,shippersstillprefertruckingto

railandrail+trucking,calledintermodal,astruckingofferssuperiorbenefitsintermsofspeedandreach.Onthesupplyside,newcarriersfacevariousconstraintssuchastighteningregulationsandhighcapitalcosts.Inaddition,smallfleetspay10%morethanlargefleets(permile)tooperatetheirtrucks.14Thismakesitdifficultforthemtosustainthemselves,exceptintightmarketsliketheonewesawin2021.15

Drivershortageandretentionwereamongthetop10issuesfacingthetruckingindustryfor10yearsinarow.16Thesearen’ttheonlypainpoints,however.Theindustrygrappleswithdrivercompensation,safety,andfacility-delayissues.Self-drivingtechnologywillimprovedrivers’lifestyleandsparethemhoursspentawayfromhome.ItwillalsoaddressmostoftheotherissuesshowninTable1.

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Table1.Truckingindustrypainpointsandhowautonomoustruckingcanhelpmitigatethem

TruckingindustrypainpointsRankHowautonomoustruckingcanhelp

Drivershortage1Provideadditionalcapacitywhere

it’smostneededandofferabetter

Drivercompensation

Lawsuitabusereform4

Compliance,safety,

accountability

Insurancecost/availability

9

safetyandlowerinsurancecosts.

Reducetheneedfortruckparking,becauseATswillbeexemptedfromhoursofserviceconstraints.

Detention/delayatcustomerfacilities

7

Eliminatedetentionsandunnecessarydelayswithdrop-and-hookoperations,describedinthenextsection.

RouteandscheduleATstooperate

8duringoff-peakhours,therebydecongestingroads.

Acceleratetheadoptionofelectrictrucks,duetothelowercostofwaitingtorecharge.

Driverretention2lifestyletotruckdrivers.

Reducethenumberoftruckingaccidents,87%ofwhicharecausedbyhumanerror,17and,therefore,improve

Increasedrivers’ratepermileusingthehub-to-hubmodel(seethenext

Transportationinfrastructure/congestion/funding

Dieseltechnicianshortage

Limitedtruck

section).

parking

10

6

5

3

UberFreighthasbeenleveragingtechnologytoaddresssomeoftheseissues.Forexample,theUberFreightappprovidescarriersofallsizeswitheasyandconvenientaccesstofreight,allowingthemtooperateprofitablyinthemarketplace.Inaddition,Uber’sfacilityratingshavebeenhelpingshipperstoimprovetheirfacilitiesbyreducingdetentions,layovers,andunnecessarydelays,andUberFreighthasalsolaidthegroundworkforseamlesstrailerhandoffsbetweenautonomoustrucksandhumandriverswithPowerloop,adrop-and-hooktrailersolution.Finally,UberFreight’sCarrierWalletsolutionandFreightPlusprogramofferfasterpayments,fueldiscounts,andrewardstocarriers.Autonomoustruckspresentanopportunitythatcomplementstheseeffortsbygivingdriversabetterlifestyleandmoreprofitableloads(seethe“Whatabouttruckingjobs?”section).

Enthusiasticearlyadopters

Thecommercializationofautonomousvehiclesatscalerequirescustomers’acceptanceandtrustinthistechnology.Accordingtoa2022survey18ofUberFreightandTransplace’sbiggestshippers,

Figure2.AutonomoustruckingsurveyresultscollectedfromasampleofUberFreight/Transplaceshippers

Numberofresponses

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Howlikelyareyoutoconsideranautonomous

freightsolutioninthefuture?

24

11

7

2

2

Extremelylikely

Somewhat

likely

Neitherlikelynorunlikely

Somewhat

unlikely

Extremelyunlikely

5

themajorityofshippersindicatedthattheyareeitherextremelylikely(52%)orsomewhatlikely(24%)toconsideranautonomousfreightsolutioninthefuture.Whilethissurvey(seeFigure2)wasbasedonasmallsample,itclearlyshowsthatshippersaremorelikelytoadoptautonomoustechnologycomparedwiththegeneralpopulation.

Thepathofleastresistance

Self-drivingdevelopmentisanincrementalendeavor.SAEInternational(formerlyknownastheSocietyofAutomotiveEngineers)andtheNationalHighwayTrafficSafetyAdministration(NHTSA)recognize6levelsofautomation.19AtLevels0,1,and2,thedrivermustbeengagedatalltimes.Thevehiclesupportsthedriverwithbasicfeatures,suchasautomaticsteering,acceleration,deceleration/braking,andcruisecontrol.Levels3and4includeadditionalfeaturesthatallowthevehicletodriveundercertainconditions.However,atLevel3,thedrivermustbereadytotakeoverwhenthefeaturerequests.Finally,atLevel5,thevehiclecandriveunderallconditionswithoutanyassistance.

Level5istheautomationnorthstar.However,itisunattainablewithinthecomingyears.Currentself-drivingdevelopersarefocusingonLevel4,wherethevehiclecandriveundermostconditionsalong

specificcorridors.Remoteoperatorswillhandletheremainingedgecases,wherehumaninterventionisneeded.

Thinkofallthecomplexitiesthataself-drivingvehicleneedstohandleonanurbantrip.First,urbanstreetsarefarfromuniform.Lanesvarybywidth,speedlimit,andgeometry.Somestreetshavesideparking,shoulders,orsidewalkswhileothersdonot.Roundaboutsandintersectionsareevenmorecomplex,whethertheyarecontrolledbytrafficlightsorstopsigns.Andwhilesometurnsareprotected,othersarenot.Furthermore,urbanstreetscanbejammedwithpedestrians,bicyclists,andsmallerdeliveryvehicles.

Becauseofthiscomplexity,highwaydrivingisamoretractableandwell-definedproblemforATdevelopers.TheUSinterstatehighwaysaremuchmoreuniformbecausetheyareregulatedandmaintainedbyasingleagency:theFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA).TheFHWAimposesuniformstandardscoveringcontrolledaccess,minimumandmaximumspeedlimits,andlanegeometry.Forexample,mostinterstatehighwayshaveapostedspeedlimitof65-70mph.Thismakeslong-distancetruckingafeasiblefirststeptowardautonomy.

Butdon’tautonomoustrucksstillneedtonavigatecomplexurbanstreetsforthefirstandlastmile?

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Thehub-to-hubmodel

Fortheforeseeablefuture,mostATswilloperateunderahub-to-hubmodel.Humandriverswillhandlethetripends,whichinvolvecomplexurbanstreetsandmanymanualoperationsatfacilities,suchasloading,unloading,gateentrance,anddocumentation.ATswillservicethemiddlepartofthetrip(seeFigure3).

Figure3.Thehub-to-hubmodel

Underthismodel,adriverpicksupapreloadedtrailerfromtheshipper’sfacilityanddeliversittoatransferhublocatedclosetothehighway.Werefertothisasthefirstmile.ThetrailerthengetshookedtoanAT,whichdrivesonthehighwaytoanothertransferhublocatednearthereceiver’sfacility.Thisstepisreferredtoasthemiddlemile.Atthesecondtransferhub,anotherdriverpicksupthetraileranddeliversittoitsfinaldestination.Thisisthelastmile.

Droppingandhookingtrailers,whichwerefertoasdrop-and-hook,canminimizecost,boostefficiency,andimprovethedrivers’experience.Whileitisnotstrictlyrequiredatshippers’andreceivers’facilities,itwillsavedriverstimebyeliminatingtheneedtowaitforloadingandunloading,andthereforereducethecostofthefirstandlastmiles.However,drop-and-hookisrequiredattransferhubsinordertomaximizetheuptimeofATsandimproveassetutilization.

Eventually,ATswillbeabletoprovideadepot-to-depotservice,includingthefirstandlastmiles.WhilesomecarriersandATdevelopersmightadoptthismodelearlieralongspecificroutesandwithspecificshippers,scalingitisexpectedtotakeseveralyears.ATswillneedtonotonlydrivethroughcomplexurbanenvironmentsbutalsohandlemanualoperationsatfacilitiesthatwillrequirehumaninterventionfortheforeseeablefuture.

Thehub-to-hubmodelwillbridgethegaps

Thehub-to-hubmodelallowsATdevelopersandcarrierstolaunchcommercialoperationsearlier,beforetransitioningtoadepot-to-depotservice.Atthesametime,itaddscapacitywhereit’sneededmost—inlong-distancetrucking—andprovidesabetterlifestyletotruckdrivers.

Thismodelisasteppingstonetowardfullautonomy.ItallowsATdeveloperstostartgeneratingrevenuesintheirearlyyearsofoperation.Thiswillprovidethemwitharevenuestreamthatcansustainthedevelopmentofself-drivingtechnologyinsteadofrelyingexclusivelyonexternalinvestment,inordertoexpandtheircapabilitiesbeyondhighwaydriving.

Thisapproachalsocutsmappingcostsby2ordersofmagnitude.Self-drivingvehiclesneedhigh-definitionmapsinordertodeterminetheirexactlocationwithrespecttothesurroundingenvironmentandplantheirnextmoveaccordingly.Themappingprocessistime-

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consumingandcostly.Withthehub-to-hubmodel,self-drivingproviderswillonlyneedtomapthehighwaysegmentsonwhichtheyoperate.AccordingtoFHWA,thetotallengthoftheUSinterstatehighwaysystemis46,876miles,20whichisonlyabout1.2%ofthe

USpublicroads,butcarriesaquarterofvehicle-miles.21Incontrast,mappingurbanstreetsismorecomplicatedbecausetheyhavemorefeatures,andasinglelargecitylikeLosAngelescanhave6,500streetmiles,22almost14%oftheentireUSinterstatesystem.

Figure4.Employmentgrowthinvarioustruckingsectors23

140%

130%

120%

110%

100%

90%201220142016201820202022

Long-distanceTLLTLLocalSpecialized

Theadvantagesofthehub-to-hubmodelarenotlimitedtoself-drivingdevelopers;theyhelpdriversaswell.AsshowninFigure4,truckdriversarebecomingmoreinclinedtowardlocal—ratherthanlong-distance—freight.Thishasbeenattributedtovariousfactors,includingtheevolvingpreferencesofyoungerdriverswholiketostayclosertohome.Thehub-to-hubmodelwillallowdriverstoonlyserveshorthaulsandreturntotheirhomesandfamilieseverynight.

Finally,drop-and-hookoperationsattransferhubsandshippers’facilitieswillsavedriverstimeandboostthesystem’sefficiency.By

eliminatingtheneedforappointmentwindows,carrierswillbeabletomaximizetheuptimeofATs,anexpensiveassetthatshouldkeepmovingratherthanwaitingatfacilitiestoloadandunload.

Thehub-to-hubmodelrequiresahybridnetworkofhumandriversandself-drivingtrucks.Italsorequiresseamlessdrop-and-hookoperations,inadditiontoreliabletechnologiesfortracking,dispatching,andplanning.UberFreight’sPowerloopprogramgivescarriersaccesstoapooloftrailersthatallowthehub-to-hubmodeltooperatesmoothlyandefficiently.

Economicsofthehub-to-hubmodel

Autonomoustruckswillcutfreightcostssubstantiallyinthelongterm.Currently,carriersspendabout34%-44%oftheirtotaloperatingcostsondriverwagesandbenefits.24Therefore,differentstudieshaveestimatedthesavingstobebetween30%and45%oftotaloperatingcosts.25

Toachievethis,ATsneedtodriveonurbanstreetsandhandlealotofedgecases.Forthecomingyears,however,ATswilloperateunderthehub-to-hubmodel,whichwilltransformthecoststructurebyreducingsomecostsandaddingothers,asshowninFigure5.

Underthismodel,wecandividethecostofatripinto3components:thefirst-andlast-milecosts,whicharehandledbyahumandriver,andthemiddle-milecost,whichisdrivenautonomously.Themiddle-milecostincludes:

•Truckoperatingcostssuchasfuel,tractorandtrailerdepreciation,maintenance,permits,insurance,andtolls

•Transferhubacquisition,lease,andoperatingcosts

•Autonomoustechnologycosts,suchassensors,mapping,remoteassistance,datatransfer,andstorage

Truckoperatingcosts

TheAmericanTransportationResearchInstitute(ATRI)providedabreakdownoftruckingcostsfordifferentfleetsizesin2020.26Thesecostsvarysignificantlyacrosscarriers.Largefleetsincurlowercosts(per

8

Figure5.Totaloperatingcostsoftruckingunderthe

hub-to-hubmodel29

assistance,

AT-specifc

costs

Tractor

Additional

Permitsand

licenses

UnchangedcostsCostsreducedbyATHub-to-hubcostsATtechnologycosts

Technologyandself-drivingkit

truckingcosts

Firstand

-

last-miledrivercost

General

Maintenance

datatransfer,

Fuel/

energy

generation

trailersfor

drop-and-

andrepair

andtrailer

Insurance

purchase

updating

hubreal

Remote

Transfer

orlease

estate

orlease

and

storage

hook

and

Map

mile)thansmalleronesacrossallcostcomponents.Inouranalysis,weconsidertheoperatingcostsoflargefleetstoestimatealowerboundofthetotalcostpermile.ThesecostsareshowninFigure6.

Theoperatingcostsoftruckinghaveincreasedsubstantiallybetween2020and2022.Forexample,thepriceofdieselhasdoubled,27andthepriceoflaborhasincreasedbyabout10%.Therefore,weneedtoapplyrelevantinflationfactorstothesecoststoestimatetheir2022counterparts.

Yetasthetechnologymatures,ATswilldecreasesomeofthetruckoperatingcosts,suchasfuelandinsurance,duetooptimizeddrivingpatternsandfeweraccidents.28Therefore,weestimatetheoperatingcostofanATatabout$1.06permile,whichisabout72centspermilecheaperthanahuman-driventruck.

Hub-to-hubcosts

Thesecostsareassociatedwiththeleasing,acquisition,andoperationoftransferhubs.Theyaregenerallylowcomparedwithothercost

Figure6.Per-mileoperatingcostsoftruckingforlargefleetsin2020(ATRI)and2022(UberFreightcalculationsbasedonATRI)30

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00

$0.50

$0.00

$0.65

$0.58

$0.28

$0.10$0.10

$0.51

$0.57

$0.09$0.09

$0.09

$0.18

$0.11

$0.10

$0.25

$0.11

$0.09

$0.25

2020(ATRI)2022(Uberestimate)ATmiddle-milecosts

Driverwagesandbenefits

Fuel

Tires/tolls/permits

RepairandmaintenanceTruckinsurancepremiums

Truck/trailerleaseorpurchasepayments

components.Forexample,ifatransferhubcosts$5,000permonthandhandles20loadsperday,andiftheaveragelengthofhaulis500miles,theresultingcostwillbelessthan2centspermile.

Ifworkersarerequiredatthetransferhubs(formaintenance,security,etc.),theymightincreasethiscostsubstantially.Forexample,having2workersateachfacilityavailablefor24hoursadaywillresultinadailycostofabout$1,920.31Thisiswheretheutilizationoftransferhubsbecomesessential.Ifeachtransferhubprocesses20loadsperday,thecostwillbeashighas19centspermile.However,ifeachtransferhubprocesses100loadsperday,thenthelaborcostwillbelowerthan4centspermile.

However,ATcarrierswillneedaccesstoadditionaltrailersfordrop-and-hookoperationsattransferhubs.Ideally,3trailerspertractorwillbeavailable:attheorigin,atthedestination,andintransit.32If2additionaltrailerspertractorareneeded,theaddedcost(includingmaintenance,insurance,etc.)canbeashighas26centspermile.33

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Therefore,theadditionalcostpermileassociatedwiththe2trailersandthe2transferhubs(onbothends)isabout30centspermile.

Self-drivingtechnologycosts

Theseincludesensors,mapping,datastorageandtransfer,andremoteoperations.Thesecostsaredifficulttoquantify,becausetheydependonthetechnologymaturityandwillgenerallydecreasewithtime.Thesumofoperating,hub-to-hub,andtechnologycostsconstitutethetotalcostpermileoftheautonomousmiddlemile.

First-andlast-miledrivercosts

Thesearethelargestcostcomponentsofthehub-to-hubmodelandwillbediscussedinmoredetailinthefollowingsection.

Thehub-to-hubmodelwillalsobeprofitable

Themajorcostcomponentassociatedwiththehub-to-hubmodelrelatestothefirstandlastmiles.HowwillthisimpacttheprofitabilityofATsoperatingbetweentransferhubs?

Therearedifferentwaysinwhichwecanprocureandpricefirstandlastmiles.Forsimplicity,weanalyze2models:local-haulpricingandhourlydriverpricing.Ouranalysisisbasedonthebreak-evenpoints:Atwhatpricepointwillthecombinedcostofthefirst,last,andmiddlemilesbeequaltothecostofahumandriver34servingtheentirehaul?

Local-haulpricing

Thesimplestapproachistotreatthefirstandlastmilesas2separatelocalhauls.Forexample,aloadgoingfromDallastoPhoenixwillbedividedinto3hauls:alocalhaulinDallas,anautonomoushaulfromDallastoPhoenix,andalocalhaulinPhoenix.Thetotalpriceisthesumofthe3individuallinehaulcosts.Weexcludethecostoffuelfromouranalysisbecauseitisusuallypassedtotheshippersintheformofafuelsurcharge.

Thisapproachfavorslonghauls.Toillustratethis,weconsiderthefollowingexamplewith2lanes:DallastoHoustonandDallasto

Phoenix,whichare241and1,068mileslong,respectively.Onbothlanes,thecombinedpriceofthefirstandlastmileswasapproximately$600in2021,35assuminga$76reductioninpriceduetodrop-and-hook,basedonthehourlyearningsoflocaltruckdriversin2021.36OntheDallas-Houstonlane,thisisalmostequaltothetotallinehaulcostfromDallastoHouston.Toachievebreak-even,ATsneedtohaveacostof$0.70permile.

Ontheotherhand,thePhoenix-DallaslaneismoreprofitableforATcarriers.Becauseitisalongerhaul,thecombinedpriceofthefirstandlastmilesisasmallerfractionofthetotallinehaulpriceasshowninFigure7.Autonomoustruckscanachievebreak-even,evenwhentheircostisashighas$2permile.

Table2.Characteristicsofthelanesusedinthehub-to-hubexample

Lane

DallastoHouston

DallastoPhoenix

Length(miles)

241

1,068

Linehaulprice(2021average)

$793

$1,798

Linehaulprice(oppositedirection)

$761

$3,061

Local-haulprice(Dallas)*

$417

$417

Local-haulprice(Houston/Phoenix)*

$334

$328

*Thelocalpricesusuallyassumeliveloadingandunloading.Weapplieda$76reductiontothesefiguresinourassumptions.

TheaboveconclusionholdsforthemajorityoflanesontheUberFreightnetwork.Wehavecalculatedtheautonomousmiddle-milebreak-evenratepermileforUberFreight’stoplanes,atwhichthecombinedcostofthefirst-,middle-,andlast-milesegmentsisequaltothelinehaulcostwithahumandriver.Theresults,showninFigure8,indicatethat:

•Thefeasibilityofthehub-to-hubmodelimproveswithlongerhauls

•Morethan80%oftheselaneshaveabreak-evenpriceexceeding$1permile,andabout40%ofthemhaveabreak-evenpriceexceeding$2permile

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Price

Break-evencostpermile($/mi)

Figure7.Costofthefirstandlastmile(ingray)andtheATbreak-evenrevenue(ingreen)usingthehub-to-hubmodel.Weassumea$76reductioninthecostoflocalhaulsbecauseoftimesavingsresultingfromdrop-and-hookoperations.

FirstmileATbreak-evenpriceLastmileTotallinehaulprice

$0

DAL-HOUDAL-HOU

(AT)(human

driver)

HOU-DALHOU-DAL

(AT)(human

driver)

DAL-PHXDAL-PHX

(AT)(human

driver)

(humandriver)

PHX-DALPHX-DAL

$3,000

$2,000

$3,500

$2,500

$1,000

$1,500

(AT)

$500

Figure8.ATbreak-evenratepermile(excludingfuel)asafunctionoflinehauldistance

Break-evencostpermile<$1/miFeasibleat$1/miFeasibleat$2/mi

$4

$3

$2

$1

$0

-$1

-$2

02505007501,0001,2501,500

Lengthofhaul(miles)

Basedonouranalysisinthe“Economicsofthehub-to-hubmodel”section,atotalmiddle-milecostof$1-$2(excludingfuel)canbeachievedasthetechnologymatures.Thetruckoperatingcostsandthehub-to-hubcostsconstituteabout$0.86/mile.Inordertoachieveamiddle-milecostof$1/mile,theATtechnologycostsshouldbe$0.14/mile.However,evenifthesecostsareashighas$1.14/mileintheearlyyearsofoperation,thetotalcostofthemiddlemilewillbeabout$2/mile.

Underthismodel,thehighcostofthefirstandlastmileispartlyduetotheaddedfrictionatfacilities.Forexample,driversmightnotshowupontime(oratall)topickupascheduledload,eitherattheshipper’sfacilityoratatransferhub.Sinceeachloadisdividedinto3separatesegments(thefirst,middle,andlastmiles),theprobabilityofsucheventsoccurringismagnified.Someofthesecostsareimplicitlyincludedinthefirst-andlast-milepricesshowninTable2,whichusesdatafromvariousloads,includingthosewithdriverdelaysandno-shows.

Hourlydriverpricing

Inthesecondapproach,driverswhoarepaidhourlyarehiredateachtransferhubinordertohandlefirst-/last-mil