高盛-The Ecosystem of Electric Vehicles高盛高盛

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Withthisreport,welayoutanecosystemofstocksexposedtotheElectricVehiclesvaluechain.Whilethisnoterepresentsasnapshotintime,anevolvinginteractiveversionoftheecosystemcanbefoundonthe

Cars:TheRoadAhead

pageontheGoldmanSachsResearchportal.Wewillupdatethisportal-hostedecosystemasourcoverageevolves.

CurrentlytheEVindustryisfacingcrosscurrentsfromanumberofdirections–Greenflation,risingelectricpowerprices,theUSInflationReductionAct(IRA)–butweexpecttheindustrytosteadilyovercometheseobstaclesthroughtechnologicalinnovation.However,weexpecttechnologicalinnovation,andweseeconsiderablegrowththrough2030intheEVecosystem,andthinkprofitpoolsintheautomobileindustrywillbetransformed.

WebelievethatTesla,LGEnergySolution/LGChem,SKI,SamsungSDI,PanasonicandFREYRBatteryarelikelytobenefitthemostfromtheincreasedadoptionofEVs,aswethinkthesecompaniesshouldbeabletotapIRAopportunitiesasthebatterymarketbecomesmoreconcentrated.WearealsofocusingonthepotentialforearningsgrowthatInfineon,STMicro,Rohm,FujiElectric,ON,WOLF,DiscoandSICContheadoptionofSiCpowersemiconductortechnology.WehighlightDenso,ADI,APTIV,TEConnectivityandSensatafortheirelectroniccomponentsexposure.Furthermore,wepayspecialattentiontoHonHaiforitsEVproductionoutsourcingopportunity.

WewouldliketothankVarunaNangiaandAnikJoshi,membersoftheDigitalContentStrategyteam,whooversawtheefforttopulltogethertheinvestmentthesesandcreatetheinteractiveexhibit.

30January2023|11:33PMJST

TheEcosystemofElectricVehicles

KotaYuzawa

+81(3)6437-9863|kota.yuzawa@GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

MarkDelaney,CFA

+1(212)357-0535|

mark.delaney@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GeorgeGalliers

+44(20)7552-5784|

george.galliers@

GoldmanSachsInternational

FeiFang

+852-2978-1383|fei.fang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

PhilippKonig

+44(20)7051-3084|

philipp.konig@

GoldmanSachsInternational

NikhilBhandari

+65-6889-2867|nikhil.bhandari@GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

DanielaCosta

+44(20)7774-8354|

daniela.costa@

GoldmanSachsInternational

AlexanderDuval

+44(20)7552-2995|

alexander.duval@

GoldmanSachsInternational

ToshiyaHari

+1(646)446-1759|toshiya.hari@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

BrianLee,CFA

+1(917)343-3110|brian.k.lee@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DaikiTakayama

+81(3)6437-9870|

daiki.takayama@

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

RyoHarada

+81(3)6437-9865|ryo.harada@GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

AllenChang

+852-2978-2930|allen.k.chang@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

VerenaJeng

+852-2978-1681|verena.jeng@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

JinGuo

+86(21)2401-8943|jin.guo@

BeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompany

Foracompleteauthorlist,see

within.

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachs

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TableofContents

Ecosystemsnapshot3

PMsummary:Technologicalinnovationshouldcutthroughthenear-termnoise

4

ElectricVehicleOEMs

13

EVBattery

27

Corecomponents

32

PowerSemiconductors

42

Othercomponents&software

51

ChargingInfrastructure

65

EVAssembly70

FeaturedResearch

71

Pricetarget,methodologyandrisks

73

DisclosureAppendix

88

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THEECOSYSTEMOFELECTRICVEHICLES

OEMsBatteryCorecomponents

BorgWarner

Hyliion

Visteon

Lear

JabilCircuit(+)

Flex(+)

Aptiv

Valeo

Vitesco(+)

TIFluidSystem

NingboTuopu

CRRCTimesElectric(+)

ShenzhenInovance

ShuanghuanDriveline

Sanhua

Notratedornotcovered:

Hella,Hitachi,Bosch,

ZFFriedrichshafen,

HyundaiMobis,Huawei

Others

MLCCs,Sensors,Relay,

Harnesses,Charging

Connectors,Cables,

Displaysetc.

Denso(+)

CATL

LGES/LGChem

Panasonic(+)

SamsungSDI

SKInnovation

GanfengLithium

FREYR

VARTA

QuantumScape

Tesla(+)

GeneralMotors(+)

Ford(+)

Rivian(+)

Lordstown

Volkswagen(+)

BMW(+)

Stellantis(+)

Renault(+)

Porsche

VolvoCars(+)

Mercedes

Toyota(+)

Honda(+)

Nissan(+)

Hyundai

KiaMotors

Mazda

Suzuki

Mitsubishi

Subaru

BYD(+)

LiAuto

Nio

Seres(+)

BAIC

SAIC

Dongfeng

GreatWall

Commercial

DaimlerTruck

Iveco

Traton

VolvoGroup

HinoMotors

Isuzu

Notratedor

notcovered:

Opel,Lucid,Xpeng,

Polestar,Leapmotor,

Nikola,Proterra,

Gogoro,Arrival,

LionElectric,Geely

Assembly

Magna(+)

HonHai

Nidec

MitsuiHigh-tec

Aisin

MitsubishiElectric(+)

Meidensha

DeltaElectronics(+)

LGInnotek

LGElectronics

Notratedornotcovered:

Northvolt,EnvisionAESC,

ACC,Verkor

Visittheportaltoseethe

interactiveversion

TEConnectivity

Sensata

Amphenol

Avnet

Continental

Nexans(+)

Prysmian

SKF

IRISO

NipponCeramic

ToyotaBoshoku

SumitomoElectric

Fujikura

Furukawa

Power

Semiconductors

ONSemi

NXPSemi

TexasInstruments

ADI

Skyworks

Microchip

Wolfspeed

Infineon(+)

STMicro(+)

FujiElectric

Rohm

Renesas

DISCO

Etek

BizLink

Yageo

Sanan

Silan

Wingtech

SICC

StarPower

SinoWealth

SGMicro

HuaHong

Bomin

AccoTest

Notratedor

notcovered:

Freescale,

Toshiba

ChargingInfra

Shoals

Enphase

StemInc

Sunrun

Sunnova

SolarEdge

SunPower

Schneider

ABB

Siemens

Legrand

Nichicon(+)

Daihen

AVICJonhon

Faratronic

Hongfa

NantongJianghai

ShenzhenEnvicool

LGDisplay

Memory

Micron

SKHynix

SamsungElectronics

Testsolutions

Keysight

ChromaATE

CentreTesting

PonyTesting

ShenzhenKstar

Notratedor

notcovered:

Volta

Corecomponentsincludeoneormoreofthebelow:

Motor,Powertrain,Transmission,DC/DCConverter,

Onboardcharger,Inverter,ThermalManagement,Battery

ManagementSystem.

(+)indicatesintegrationintoadditionalsegmentsofthe

valuechain.

Software,Networking,

Compute

*

AMD

Marvell

Nvidia

NavInfo

KPITTech

Notratedornotcovered:

NationalInstruments,

Broadcom

WenotethatthelistofcompaniesacrosstheElectricVehiclesvaluechainwepresentaboveisnotexhaustive,andtheuniverse

ofcompaniesinvolvedintheglobalchainislikelytobelargerthanwhatispresentedinthisexhibit.

GoldmanSachs

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Exhibit1:Movestowardelectrificationarenotgoingtostop

Forecastsforvehicleelectrification

EVsalesratio

2020

2021

2022E

2023E

2024E

2025E

2030E

2035E

2040E

Total

2%

5%

8%

10%

13%

16%

33%

49%

61%

USA

2%

3%

6%

9%

13%

20%

50%

70%

85%

Japan

China

0%5%

2%

12%

2%

20%

2%

27%

3%

31%

6%

33%

20%

43%

50%

57%

80%68%

EU

6%

10%

11%

13%

20%

25%

72%

100%

100%

India

0%

1%

1%

2%

3%

4%

20%

37%

55%

Others

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

5%

21%

38%

Hyperadoption

2%

6%

11%

14%

17%

20%

46%

65%

93%

Bear

2%

5%

7%

8%

10%

12%

26%

40%

54%

EVsales(mn)

Total

1.9

4.3

6.3

8.5

11.1

14.1

32.6

53.5

72.9

USA

0.2

0.5

0.8

1.2

2.1

3.4

8.0

11.2

13.6

Japan

China

0.00.9

0.1

2.4

0.1

4.1

0.1

5.6

0.1

6.3

0.3

6.9

0.9

8.9

2.1

11.8

3.313.9

EU

0.7

1.2

1.2

1.5

2.4

3.4

11.8

16.0

16.0

India

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.3

3.0

5.5

Others

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.8

9.4

20.6

Hyperadoption

1.9

4.5

8.3

11.1

14.1

17.7

45.6

71.1

111.8

Bear

1.9

4.3

5.3

6.7

8.9

10.7

26.0

43.4

64.4

LiBdemand(GWh)

Total

158

313

498

642

849

1,112

2,583

4,325

6,178

Hyperadoption

156

362

728

998

1,299

1,668

4,249

6,704

10,586

Bear

156

311

420

543

727

904

2,018

3,482

5,390

Powertrainoutlook(mn)

2020

2021

2022E

2023E

2024E

2025E

2030E

2035E

2040E

PHEV

0.9

1.8

2.8

3.6

4.4

5.1

4.8

4.8

6.4

EV

19

43

63

85

111

141

326

535

729

ICEandothers

74.1

74.2

69.7

69.5

69.6

70.2

61.3

50.7

41.1

Powertrainratio

PHEV

1%

2%

4%

4%

5%

6%

5%

4%

5%

EV

2%

5%

8%

10%

13%

16%

33%

49%

61%

ICEandothers

96%

92%

88%

85%

82%

78%

62%

47%

34%

NEV(EV+PHEV)

NEV

NEVratio

2.84%

6.0

8%

9.2

12%

12.2

15%

15.5

18%

19.2

22%

37.4

38%

58.3

53%

79.366%

(ChinaNEV)

(ChinaNEVratio)

(ChinaNEVyoy)

1.1

3.0

5.7

7.7

8.9

9.8

11.8

14.7

16.8

6%

15%

169%

28%

91%

38%

36%

43%

15%

48%

10%

58%

5%

72%

4%

82%3%

Source:IHSGlobalInsight,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

PMsummary:Technologicalinnovationshouldcutthroughthenear-term

noise

Electricvehicle(EV)penetrationisrisingsharplyamidanacceleratingpushtowardscarbon-neutrality.WeexpectEVadoptiontobe16%/33%/49%/61%ofglobalnewvehiclesalesinCY25/30/35/40.

Majorplayersarelookingtoin-sourcemorecomponentswithanaimtoimprovecosts,controltheirsupplyandleverageexistingindustrialassets.Further,recentdevelopmentsliketheUSInflationReductionActmakeitimportanttounderstandwherefirmsliewithinthevaluechain.

ThisecosystemdividestheEVvaluechainintosixsub-segments:OEMs,Batteries,CoreComponents,PowerSemiconductors,ChargingInfrastructure,Assemblyand

OtherComponents(ElectricalandSoftware).

Corecomponentsincludemotor,DC/DCconverter,onboardcharger,inverter,powertrain,transmission,thermalmanagementandbatterymanagementsystem.

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WeseeconsiderablesalesgrowthpotentialforEVs

Weexpecttheautomobileindustrytoundergoamajortransformationbetween2020and2030,drivenbytheincreasingadoptionofvehicleelectrificationandautonomousdriving.Weexpectparticularlystrongmovestowardvehicleelectrification,andweforecastaverageannualsalesgrowthof32%forEVs.Wealsoforecastaverageannualsalesgrowthof28%fortheessentialcomponentsusedinEVs(e.g.,batteries,inverters).Whileweseeautomotivesoftwareasanothergrowthmarket,wethinkthegrowthpotentialforelectrificationwillbethemainfocusthrough2030.Atthesametime,weexpectaslumpinsalesofproductsrelatedtogasolineengines.

Profitpoolsalsosettochange

WeforecastthatoperatingprofitsintheglobalautomobileindustrywillrisefromUS$315bnin2020(GSe;operatingmargin:8%)toUS$418bn(9%)in2030.Withinthis,weexpecttheEV-relatedprofitpooltogrowsubstantially,fromUS$2bntoUS$133bn.AlthoughweexpecttheprofitpoolforEVthemselvestoincreasefromUS$1bnto

US$110bn,traditionalautomakerswillinevitablyseeadeclineinprofitsfrom

gasoline-enginevehicles.Competitionislikelytobetough,butweseeconsiderablegrowthpotentialforpureEVmakersthatcanprevail.Weexpecttheprofitpoolfor

EV-relatedcomponentstoincreasefromUS$1bntoUS$23bnoverthedecade,andseeconsiderableearningsgrowthpotentialformanufacturersthatcancreatenewvalueinEVbatteries,inverters,andmotors.

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Exhibit2:StronggrowthpotentialforEV-relatedproducts

Salesgrowthoutlookbyproductcategory(2020-2030E)

BusinesssegmentSalesCAGROutlook

AVsoftware

15%

Rapidgrowthinrevenueonautonomousfunction.Assuming20%OPMonnormalizedbasis.

AVhardware

17%

LiDAR,GPU,Cameraandothersensorstodriverapidgrowth.Assuming15%OPMonnormalizedbasis.

EVvehicles

32%

Batterycostdecline,premiumpricingandanddecreasedproductioncomplexitytodriveOPMtoaround12%.

EVparts(incl.battery)

28%

Battery,motorandinvertertodriveprofitexpansion

Afterservices

0%

Keepingstableoperation.EVmaintenancecostsis20-30%lowerthanICEbutVIO(VehicleinOperation)togrow.

Finance

3%

KeepingstablemarginoperationregardlessofpowertrainshiftfromICEtoEVs.

ICEvehicles

-1%

ICEvehiclesalestodecline.OPMtocomedownto6%from

7%.

ICEparts

-1%

ICEvehiclesalestodecline.Engine/Transmissionproductsegmentstoseefasterdeterioration.

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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Exhibit3:EVprofitpoolisexpectedtogrowsubstantially

Profitpoolfortheglobalautomobileindustry(US$)

500

Total418bn

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

-

Total315bn

16

(OPM:9%)

10

(OPM:8%)

110EV133bn

4EV2bn

64

23

4464

62

131

98

67

34

2030E

2020(Normalizedbasis)

ICEpartsICEvehiclesFinanceAfterservicesEVparts(incl.battery)EVvehiclesAVhardwareAVsoftware

2020numbersarebasedontheindustrywideaverageOPMbyeachsegmentandnotanaggregationofeachcompany’sprofitpoolbysegments.

Source:IHSGlobalInsight,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Twopowerbalancesthatwillshapeprofitpoolexpansion

WhilewethinktherewillbenoletupinexpansionoftheEVindustryasenvironmentalregulationsaretightenedandelectrificationtechnologiesadvance,webelievethataccesstoprofitpoolswillvaryconsiderablydependingontheproductandtheregion.

First,wenotethattheglobalmarketisbecomingincreasinglyconcentratedforEVbatteries,whichaccountfor25-40%ofthetotalcostofanEV.Asof2020,thetopfiveautomakershadaglobalmarketshareof41%,whereasthetopfivebatterymakershadaglobalshareof83%(GSe).Wethinkpricingpowerhasincreasinglyshiftedtowardbatterymakers,whichmakestheenvironmentmoreconduciveforthemtoachievehigherearnings.Finishedvehicleassemblers,meanwhile,arerushingtoestablishverticallyintegratedproductionstructuresandjointventureplantsastheylooktoaddressthepowerbalancewithbatterymakers.

Second,wenotegovernment-ledmovestowardsupplychainlocalization,asexemplifiedbytheUSIRA.Takingthebatterysupplychainasanexample,dependencyonChinaforthefourkeybatterymaterials(cathodematerials,anodematerials,separators,electrolytes)wasveryhighasof2020.TheIRAseeksnotonlytopromotethelocalassemblyofEVs,butitalsocallsforthelocalizationofbatteryassemblyandbatterymaterialproduction,andtheprocurementofbatterymineralsfromcountrieswithwhichtheUShasFTAs.Underthisstructure,companieswillnotbeabletousethebatterysupplychainthathasbeenbuiltupinChinatoexporttotheUS.InEurope,also,proposalsforasimilarinitiativetotheIRAarebeingraisedfordiscussion,anddevelopmentstherewillbearclosemonitoring.Governmentsinbothregionsarestronglyinterestedinthebatterysupplychain,whichbringsthepotentialforstrong

30January20237

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growthaswellasjobcreation.WeseeastrongpossibilitythattheIRAofficialannouncementinMarch2023willhavepositiveimplicationsintermsofrelativeadvantageformanufacturersthatarepushingaheadwithlocalproductionintheUSofEVs,battery-relatedproducts,andEVcomponents.

Exhibit4:Marketconcentrationinthebatteryindustry

Globalmarketshareforthetopthreeandtopfivemanufacturers(asof2020)

Exhibit5:HighdependenceonChina

Regionalproductionshareforthefourmainbatterymaterials

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

83%

70%

41%

28%

Top5

Top3

BatteryAuto

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

6%

6%

65%65%

42%43%

33%

28%

21%

19%17%

15%

12%

10%10%

4%

2%2%

0%0%

USAChinaJapanKoreaOthersCathodeAnodeElectrolyteSeparator

Source:Companydata,SNESource:USDepartmentofCommerce,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Somenear-termnoise,butmedium-ter