-光伏电站主要水文预算组成的概念化和评估的安装和操作的

Conceptualizingandassessingtheeffectsofinstallationand

operationofphotovoltaicpowerplantsonmajorhydrologic

budgetconstituentsStudyareadescriptionVosvozisriverbasininThrace(NorthernGreece)(Fig.1)constitutesatypicalMediterraneanwatershed,especiallysuitablefortheinstallationofPVsystemsduetotheabundanceofsunlight,itsruralcharacterandthepresenceofalargeproportionofplainland.Thecatchmentsizeis340km2,extendingfromtheGreek-BulgarianbordersdowntotheThraciansea.VosvozisriverdischargesintoIsmaridaLake,whichisanimportantecosystem,protectedbytheRamsarTreaty,itisdesignatedasNatura2000areaanditispartoftheNationalParkofEasternMacedoniaandThrace.IsmaridaLakeisanecosystemwherecomplexinteractionsamongsurfacewaters,groundwatersandseawatersaretakingplace.PreviousresearchintheareahasprovedthehydraulicconnectionofIsmaridaLakeandVosvozisriverwiththegroundwatersystem.GemitziandStefanopoulos(2011)andGemitzietal.(2013)haveshownthatIsmaridaLakerechargesthegroundwatersystemandthereforeitshouldbeconsideredasagroundwaterdependentecosystem.Therefore,anychangesonlandusesinVosvoziscatchmentareaareexpectedtoaffectIsmaridaLakeandtheassociatedaquifersystem.TheclimateoftheareaischaracterizedasMediterraneanwithdry校准和验证过程模型可靠性的关键,有参数,难以测量或估计,从而增加模拟的不确定性的程度。模型校准可以是手动或自动。因为没有连续流水量时间序列可用，手动校准用于本研究的目的。基于日常流数据校准是模型的时期2008年10月到2010年10月。一些统计方法和指数已经提出了水文模型评价和评估。使节和麦凯布(1999)表明，不仅correlation-based标准，还必须汇总统计和绝对误差标准为了保持足够hydro逻辑模型使用评估。克瑞斯特奥。(2005)调查了几个标准的性能用于水文模型的评估，得出结论，不像R2,加权R2(wR2)能够揭示系统的模型错误。他们还发现,最敏感的标准低流条件面积的对数Nash-Sutcliffe效率(纳什和拍摄，1970)(InNSE)和修改后的孟买。摸瑞斯特奥(2007)几个模型中使用广泛的绩效评估标准流域模型的应用程序。他们得出结论说,孟买，百分比的偏见(PBIAS)和比率的均方根误差测量的标准偏差数据(RSR)combination和graphicalmethods,应该用于绩效评估模型。根据上述,SWAT模型在这个应用程序研究最初评估通过视觉检查校准结果散点图的形式，模拟河流策划与观察到的和线性回归线安装吗(回归线梯度b和确定系数R2也计算)。然后wR2,孟买，InNSEPBIAS,秩和平均绝对(美)是计算错误。同样的评价标准与流速及流水量数据模型验证评估2010年11月到2012年4月。hotsummersandmildwinters.Theaverageannualprecipitationis628mmandtheaverageannualtemperatureis15℃.Theareaischaracterizedbyintenseagriculture,cattlebreedingandurbanlanduses.Themaincultivationsarecorn,cottonandwheat,asillustratedinFig.1.Waterisusedmainlyforirrigationandurbansupply.Duringthelastyears,severallegislativeframeworkshavebeenestablishedinGreecewhichaimstopromotethedevelopmentofrenewableenergysources,includingphotovoltaicpowersystems.OneofthemostrecentlegislativeregulationswithregardtorenewableenergysourcesistheLaw3851/10(OfficialGovernmentGazetteofGreece,2010),whichmotivatefarmerstoinstallsmallscalePVPsinagriculturalareas,thuspromotinglandusechangeandactivitymodificationfromagriculturaltoenergyproduction.ModeldevelopmentDatasetandmodelparameterizationTheSWATmodel(SWAT2009version)(Neitschetal.,2011)wasusedforthepurposesofthisstudy.SWATmodelhasbeenwidelyusedfortheassessmentofclimateandlandusechangeeffectsatthecatchmenthydrologicregime(Wuetal.,2012;Kimetal.,2013;Luoetal.,2013).SWATmodelbasicdatarequirementsincludetopographyjanduse,soilandweatherdata.Itiscalibratedandvalidatedusingsimulatedagainstobservedriverdischargedata.Thus,fivemonitoringstationswereestablishedinVosvozisriverbasin(Fig.1),inwhichriverflowmeasurementswereperformedonaweeklyorbiweeklybasisfortheperiodOctober2008toApril2012.Riverflowwasdeterminedbyin-streamwadingmeasurementsusingaHydrologicalServicesPtyOSS-B1currentmeter.Themonitoringprocessresultedin580riverflowmeasurementsintotalforthefivemonitoringstations.LandusedistributionforthestudybasinwasdefinedusingahybridapproachofCORINEdataandgeneralcroppatterndataderivedfromApostolakis(2009).TheappropriateSWATlandcover/plantcodeswereassignedtoeachlanduseandareclassifiedlandusemapwasproduced(Fig.1),whichwasusedasinputtoSWATmodel.SoildatawereobtainedbythelocalauthoritiesandwereenrichedwithrecentsoildatafromMisopolinos(2009),whichwereincorporatedintoSWATsoildatabase.DigitalElevationModel(DEM)qualitycanstronglyinfluencethehydrologicsimulationresults(DefournyetaL,1999).Forthemountainousarea,DEMwasconstructedbydigitizationofthe1:50,000scaletopographicmapoftheHellenicMilitaryGeographicalService.Forthelow-landarea,wherelowslopesareobserved,thatwerenotsufficientlyrepresentedbythel:50,000scaletopographicmap,1:5000topographicmapsoftheHellenicMilitaryGeographicalServiceweredigitized.TheresolutionofthefinalDEMwas50x50m.Duetothefactthatsomepa-rametersincludedinlandusechangescenarios,suchassolarradiation,areassignedatthesub-basinlevelandnotattheHydrologicResponseUnit(HRU)level,theagriculturalpartofVosvozisriverbasinwasdenselysubdividedintosmallsub-basinsinordertobeabletodeveloplowPVPcoveragescenarios.Thisdoesnotaffectthevalidityofmodelperformance,asindicatedbytheresultsprovidedbyChoetaL(2010),showingthatwatershedsubdivisiondidnotaffectstreamflowpredictionstability.Vosvozisriverbasinwassubdividedinto211sub-basinsand265HydrologicResponseUnits(HRUs).WeatherdatawerecollectedfromtwometeorologicalstationsshowninFig.1,includingdailyvaluesofprecipitation,maximum/minimumtemperature,windspeed,solarradiationandrelativehumidityfortheperiodOctober2008toApril2012.TwomethodsareavailablewithinSWATmodelforsurfacerunoffsimulation:theSCSrunoffmethod(USDA-SCS,1972)andtheGreen&Amptinfiltrationmethod(GreenandAmpt,1911).DespitethefactthatinfiltrationisdirectlysimulatedinGreen&Amptmethod,itrequiressub-dailymeteorologicaldata.HydrologicsimulationinasubdailytimestepisnotthecaseforthecurrentstudyandthereforethewidelyappliedSCSmethodwasusedforthepurposesofthisstudy.TheparameterthatcontrolssurfacerunoffpotentialinSCSmethodisthecurvenumber(CN)whichrangesbetween30and100.LowerCNvaluesindicatelowrunoffpotential,whilehighervaluescorrespondtoincreasingrunoffpotential.SWATmodelinterfaceoffersseveralmethodsforthecalculationofpotentialevapotranspiration.Assolarradiationchangesarecrucialforthepurposesofthisstudy,amethodwhichincorporatessolarradiationinevapotranspirationcalculationsshouldbeused.BetweenPenman-Monteith(Monteith,1965)andPriestleyandTaylor(1972)methods,theformerwaschosen,asthelattertendstounderestimatepotentialevapotranspirationinsemi-aridandaridareas(Neitschetal.,2011).Modelcalibration/verificationCalibrationandvalidationprocessesarecriticalformodelreliability,asthereareparameters,whicharedifficulttobemeasuredorestimated,thusincreasingthedegreeofuncertaintyinsimulation.Modelcalibrationcouldbeeithermanualorautomatic.Astherearenocontinuousstreamflowtimeseriesavailable,manualcalibrationwasusedforthepurposesofthisstudy.ModelcalibrationwasbasedondailystreamflowdatafortheperiodOctober2008toOctober2010.Severalstatisticalmethodsandindiceshavebeenproposedandassessedforhydrologicalmodelevaluation.LegatesandMcCabe(1999)indicatethat,notonlycorrelation-basedcriteria,butalsosummarystatisticsandabsoluteerrorcriteriahavetobeusedinordertomaintainasufficienthydrologicalmodelevaluation.Krauseetal.(2005)investigatedtheperformanceofseveralcriteriausedfortheassessmentofhydrologicalmodelsandconcludedthat,unlikeR2,weightedR2(wR2)iscapabletorevealsystematicmodelerrors.TheyalsofoundthatthemostsensitivecriteriatolowflowconditionsareathelogarithmicNash-SutcliffeEfficiency(NashandSutcliffe,1970)(InNSE)andthemodifiedNSE.Moriasietal.(2007)reviewedseveralmodelperformanceevaluationcriteriausedinawiderangeofwatershedmodelsapplications.TheyconcludedthatNSE,percentbias(PBIAS)andtheratiooftherootmeansquareerrortothestandarddeviationofmeasureddata(RSR),incombinationwithgraphicalmethods,shouldbeusedformodelperformanceevaluation.Accordingtotheabove,theSWATmodelapplicationwithinthisstudywasinitiallyevaluatedthroughavisualinspectionofcalibrationresultsintheformofscattergrams,inwhichsimulatedstreamflowsareplottedversusobservedonesandalinearregressionlineisfitted241V.Pisinarasetal./ScienceoftheTotalEnvironment493(2014)239-250to(regressionlinegradientbandcoefficientofdeterminationR2arealsocalculated).ThenwR2,NSE,InNSE,PBIAS,RSRandmeanabsoluteerror(MAE)werecalculated.ThesameevaluationcriteriawereusedformodelvalidationassessmentwithstreamflowdatafortheperiodNovember2010toApril2012.光伏电站主要水文预算组成的概念化和评估的安装和操作的

影响1、研究区域描述Vosvozis流域在色雷斯（希腊北部）（图1）构成一个典型的地中海流域,特别适用于安装光伏系统由于大量的阳光,农村的性格和大部分的平原土地的存在。流域大小340平方公里，从Greek-Bulgarian边界一直延伸到吗色雷斯人的海洋。Vosvozis河排放到Ismarida湖,这是一个重要的生态系统,湿地的保护条约，它是指定的2000年自然区和东部国家公园的一部分马其顿和色雷斯。Ismarida湖是一个复杂的生态系统之间的交互地表水、地下水和海域发生。先前的研究在该地区已经证明液压连接Ismarida湖和Vosvozis河流与地下水系统。Gemitzi和Stefanopoulos（2011）机密子特奥。（2013）表明Ismarida湖地下水系统和充电的过程因此它应该被视为一种地下水的依赖生态系统。因此，任何Vosvozis流域土地利用的变化地区预计将影响Ismarida湖和相关的含水层系统。该地区的气候特点是地中海与干燥夏季炎热，冬季温和。平均年降水量628每年平均温度是15°Co该地区的特点是通过强烈的农业、畜牧和城市土地用途。主要查看已是玉米、棉花和小麦中所示图lo主要用于灌溉用水和城市供应。在最后一年，已经建立了几个立法框架希腊旨在促进可再生能源的发展来源，包括光伏发电系统。最近的一个立法规定对可再生能源的来源Law3851/10（希腊政府官方公报》，2010）、激励农民小规模PVP安装在农业领域，从而促进从农业土地利用变化和活动修改能源生产。2、模型开发数据集和模型参数化SWAT模型（SWAT2009版）（尼次特奥,20H）用于本研究的目的。SWAT模型被广泛用于评估的气候和土地利用变化的影响流域水文政权（吴特奥,2012;金特奥,2013;罗特奥,2013）。SWAT模型基本数据需求包括地形、土地利用、土壤和天气数据。