Allianz+2022全球破产报告：不断增长的风险和不均衡的国家支持

15

Oneinthreecountries

willseeinsolvencies

bouncebackin2022

08

Watchoutfor

pocketsoffragilities

12

Thereturnofstate

support

04

Adeteriorated

balanceofrisksfor

companies

18May2022

Allianz

Trade

AllianzResearch

GlobalInsolvencyReport

Growingrisksand

unevenstatesupport

2

AllianzResearch

Executive

summary

MaximeLemerle,LeadAnalystfor

InsolvencyResearch

maxime.lemerle@

AnoKuhanathan,Head

ofCorporateResearch

ano.kuhanathan@

AurélienDuthoit,SectorAdvisor

aurelien.duthoit@

GaëllePécresse,ResearchAssistant

LioraSaada,ResearchAssistant

ErikHeldJakobson,ResearchAssistant

•ThewarinUkraineandnewlockdownsinChina

havesignificantlydeterioratedthebalanceofrisksforcompanies.Theshockwavesarevisibleintheextendedsupply-chaindisruptionsandtransportationbottlenecks,aswellashighinputcostsandshortages,notablyforenergyandcommoditiesbutalsolabor.Toaddtothis,theglobalsurgeininflationisacceleratingmonetarytightening,whichwillincreasefundingcostsforcompanies.

•Intheveryshortterm,threesignsofresilienceshouldhelppreventamassivesurgeininsolvencies.Atthegloballevel,thetotalcashholdingsoflistedfirmswas30%higheratthestartof2022thanin2019,anddepositsofnon-fi-nancialcorporates(NFC)were29%higherintheEurozoneandasmuchas57%higherintheUS.Ourproprietarydataalsoshowthatthenumberoffragilefirms110hasdecreased,particularlyinItaly(to7%from11%)andFrance(to12%from15%).Inaddition,theQ12022earningseasonconfirmedthatlistedcompanieshavebeenfarmorecapableofpassingcostincreasesontopricesthanexpected.

•However,pocketsoffragilitiesanduncertaintyoverhowlongthecurrentshockscouldlasthavealreadysparkedthereturnoftemporarysupportmeasuresinsomecountries.First,workingcapitalrequirementsincreasedin2021particularlyinAsia(+2days),CentralandEasternEurope(+2days)andLatam(+2days),andforsectorssuchashouseholdequipment(+8days),electronics(+3days)andmachineryequipment(+2days).Second,non-financialcompaniesintheEurozonehavepostedanoticeabledeteriorationoftheirdebt-to-GDPratios(+5.2ppcomparedto+3.5ppfortheUS).Inresponse,governmentsinFrance,GermanyandItalyhavealreadyextendedexistingpartialunemploymentprogramsandintroducednewformsofstate-guaranteedloans,withmoremeasureslikelythelongerthiscrisislasts.Weexpectstatesupporttobemoretargetedandlimitedthistimearound,butitcouldstilldelaythefullnormalizationofbusinessinsolvenciesonceagain,notablyinsomeEuropeancountries.

1Firmsatriskofinsolvencyinthenextfouryears,basedonprofitability,capitalizationandinterestcoverageasof2021.

3

insolvenciesin2022.

18May2022

Figure1:Globalandregionalinsolvencyindices,yearlylevel,base100in2019

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

WesternEurope

Central&EasternEurope

Africa

Asia-Pacific

GLOBALINSOLVENCYINDEX

GlobalindexGFC(2007-2010)

20192020202120222023

Figure2:Insolvencyindicesbyregion,contributiontoyearlychangeinglobalinsolvencyindex

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

0102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223

LatinAmerica

Africa

WesternEurope

Asia-Pacific

Central&EasternEurope

NorthAmerica

(*)GFC:GreatFinancialCrisis

Source:AllianzResearch

Source:AllianzResearch

•Overall,aftertwoyearsofdeclines,weexpectglob-albusinessinsolvenciestoreboundby+10%in2022and+14%in2023,approachingtheirpre-pandemiclevel.Whilestatesupportwillkeepinsolvenciesartifi-ciallylowinFrance(32,510cases)andGermany(14,600)in2022,theUKcouldseeasharpreboundin2022(+37%y/yto22,305cases).Oneinthreecountrieswillreturntopre-pandemiclevelsin2022andoneintwocountriesin2023.AfricaandCentralandEasternEuropewillbothreachnewrecordhighs.InAsia,Chinashouldbeabletomaintaininsolvenciesincheckbutothercountriescouldseeanincreaseduetothedeteriorationoftheregionalandglobalenvironment.Incontrast,companiesintheUS(15,500casesin2022)shouldbenefitfromthebuffersaccumulatedsincethepandemic,helpedbythePay-checkProtectionProgrambeingmassivelytransformedintosubsidiesandtherecoveryinprofits.

Forecastforriseinglobalbusiness

+10%

4

AllianzResearch

Adeteriorated

forcompanies

balanceofrisks

In2021,ourGlobalInsolvencyIndex²10posteditssecondconsecutiveannualdecline(-12%),droppingtoarecordlowasgenerousstatesupportcontinuedtoshieldcompaniesfromtheafter-effectsoftheCovid-19pandemic.Outofthe44countriesinourindex,24registeredadeclineforthefullyear,withmassivedecreasesseeninthelargesteconomies:theUS(to-34%y/yin2021from-5%in2020),Japan(-22%y/y),China(-28%),Germany(-12%)andFrance(-12%).Asaresult,mostcountriesended2021withbusinessinsolvenciesbelowthelevelsrecordedbeforeCovid-19.

However,the“grandreopening”ofeconomiesdidallowsomegovernmentstostartcuttingbackonsupportmeasures,triggeringthebeginningofanormalizationinbusinessinsolvenciesinsomecountries11.Thereturntonormalconditionshasbeenmoredifficultforcompaniesthatwerealreadyfragilebeforethepandemic,aswellasthosethathavenotbeenabletoadapttheirbusinessmodelstothestructuralchangescreatedorintensifiedbythepandemic(eg.newhabitsinmobilityandworking,onlineshoppingetc.).

2Covering44countriesthataccountfor87%ofglobalGDP2021,seestatisticalappendix.

3Weestimatethattemporarychangestoinsolvencyregimesandtemporaryfiscalinstrumentspreventedalmost35%ofinsolvenciesgloballyover2020and2021,withalowerproportionof‘sparedinsolvencies’inthetwocountriesthatenteredthepandemicwithalowernumberofinsolvencies,theUS(35%i.e.19,450casesover2020and2021)andGermany(27%i.e.10,900cases),andahigherproportionincountriesthatimplementedlargestateintervention,notablytheUK(46%i.e.27,000cases)andFrance(52%i.e.65,600cases)

5

Q1

Q2Q3

2021

Q4

Q1

2022(p)

Figure3:Global(left)andregional(right)insolvencyindex-quarterlychange,y/yin%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-18%

-18%

8%

9%

8%

5%

0%

-4%

-13%

-15%

-12%

-20%

Q1

Q2Q3

2019

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2020

Q2Q3Q4

Q4Q1

2021

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

18May2022

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

WesternEurope

Central&EasternEurope

Asia

Q1

Q2Q3

2020

Q4

(p):provisionalfigure(reportingcountries,lastthreemonthsavailable,excludingUSduetolaginreporting)

Source:AllianzResearch

Thenormalizationtrendgainedtractioninthefirstquarterof2022.Whilethelatestavailableinfraannualfiguresfor2022(seeFigure3andTable4)continuetoindicatedisparitiesacrossandwithinregions,theyalsopointtoanupsidetrendreversalforagrowingnumberofadvancedeconomiesandemergingmarkets.InAsia,China,JapanandSouthKoreastillrecordedlessinsolvenciesinQ12022,butinAustralia(+24%y/yinQ1),India(+26%)andSingapore(+30%)thereboundininsolvenciesgainedinintensityandpostedadouble-digitincreaseforthelast12months(respectivelyto+21%,+55%and+39%).InCentralandEasternEurope,theupsidetrendwasaround+6%y/yinQ1fortheregionasawholeduetotheaccelerationinTurkey(to+21%y/yinQ1)andBulgaria(+24%),as

wellastheincreaseofcasesinRussia(+6%)priortotheintroductionofthemoratoriumstartingfrom01April.

However,WesternEuropestandsoutastheregionwiththelargestreboundininsolvenciesinQ1(+26%y/y)despitedifferencesbetweencountries,including:

1AprolongedlowlevelofinsolvenciesintheNetherlands,Sweden,PortugalandGermany.

2AlullinItalyafterthefastreboundrecordedin2021.

3Sevencountriesnowpostinganincreaseoverthethreemonths(Norway,Ireland)ormoreimportantlyoverthelast12months:Austria(+52%asofQ12022),Belgium(+20%)andFrance(+8%).

4Threecountriesalreadyfacing,onaquarterlybasis,moreinsolvenciesthanin2019,namelytheUK(+12%comparedtoQ12019),Spain(+39%)andSwitzerland(+9%).

VeroeosetaccusametjustoduoDoloresetearebum.

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

2019202020212022

ChinaJapanIndia

AustraliaSouthKoreaSingapore

AllianzResearch

Table4:Businessinsolvencies–figuresavailableasofMay2022(selectedcountries)

Country

Lastpoint(y/ychangein%)

Asof

Last

3m

Lastm

Last

6m

Last12m

YtdvsYtdvs

20212019

U.S.

Canada

Brazil

Chile

2021Q403-202203-2022

03-2022

na

7%

1%

-40%

-36%

22%

-1%

-37%

-40%

16%

5%

-41%

-34%

5%

-5%

-29%

na

22%

-1%

-37%

na

-24%

-4%

-25%

Germany

France

UnitedKingdomItaly

SpainTheNetherlandsSwitzerlandSwedenNorwayBelgiumAustriaDenmarkFinlandPortugalIrelandLuxembourg

02-202203-202203-202203-202203-202203-202204-202203-202203-202203-20222022Q103-20222022Q103-202203-2022

03-2022

-5%

42%

112%

-29%

-5%

-3%

38%

-10%

13%

52%

na

43%

na

-29%

0%

-9%

-5%

34%

114%

-25%

1%

0%

37%

-9%

12%

49%

117%

-2%

-8%

-22%

8%

6%

-3%

16%

81%

-23%

-1%

-10%

30%

-5%

-7%

34%

131%

8%

18%

-17%

-5%

-1%

-8%

8%

54%

7%

21%

-33%

17%

-9%

-7%

20%

52%

-6%

16%

-15%

-22%

7%

-5%

34%

114%

-25%

1%

-48%

37%

-9%

12%

49%

117%

-2%

-8%

-22%

8%

6%

-33%

-30%

12%

-33%

39%

-48%

9%

-14%

-30%

-14%

-17%

-7%

-8%

-25%

-38%

-13%

Russia

Turkey

Poland

Romania

Latvia

03-2022

03-2022

03-2022

03-2022

03-2022

3%

40%

-9%

4%

6%

6%

21%

-15%

14%

-5%

11%

29%

1%

12%

-24%

6%

21%

34%

10%

-24%

6%

21%

-15%

14%

-5%

-18%

-4%

61%

7%

-64%

SouthAfrica

03-2022

-16%-10%-21%-11%

-10%0%

China

Japan

India

Australia

SouthKorea

Taiwan

Singapore

HongKong

NewZealand

03-202203-20222022Q103-202203-202203-202203-202203-2022

03-2022

-19%

-6%

na

19%

-52%

53%

29%

-89%

-12%

-23%

-3%

26%

24%

-29%

16%

30%

-36%

-5%

-29%

-8%

42%

25%

-47%

0%

78%

-18%

-12%

-30%

-17%

55%

21%

-40%

3%

39%

-3%

-2%

-23%

-3%

26%

24%

-29%

16%

30%

-36%

-5%

-32%

-22%

-19%

-42%

-67%

45%

25%

-36%

-27%

Sources:nationalsources,AllianzResearch

Figure5:Businessinsolvencies–quarterlylevelsinselectedcountriesofWesternEurope(left)andAsia(right),basis100inQ42019esavailableasofMay2022(selectedcountries)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

2019202020212022

UnitedKingdomTheNetherlands

GermanyItaly

FranceSpain

Sources:nationalsources,AllianzResearch

6

However,thewarinUkraineandnewlockdownsinChinahavesignificantlydeterioratedthebalanceofrisksforcompanies.Globalheadwindsemergingfrombothshocksaremultiple410,fromsupply-chaindisruptionsandtransportationbottleneckstoshortagesandhighinputcosts,notablyforenergyandcommodities.Toaddtothis,companiesalsonowfacehigherfundingcostsasanindirectconsequenceoftheglobalsurgeininflation,whichhasacceleratingmonetarytighteningacrosstheglobe.Theseexceptionalcircumstancesareaddingextrachallengestothecyclicalissuesandstructuralchangesinplace.

Intheveryshortterm,threesignsofresilienceshouldhelppreventamassivesurgeininsolvencies.First,firmshavesignificantcashbufferstoabsorbthenewshocks,providingtheyremaintemporary.Thecashholdingsoflistednon-financialcorporates(NFCs)increasedby+13%in2021comparedto2020,and+30%comparedto2019.Atthesametime,NFCsstarted2022withdeposits29%above2019levelsintheEurozone,35%intheUKand47%intheUS.

Figure6:NFCdepositsinWesternEuropeandtheUS,endofquarteramountsinLCUbntries)

900

250

EURbn,LCUbn

200

150

100

50

0

750

600

450

300

150

0

12/1909/2006/21

FranceGermanyItaly

UKNetherlandsBelgium

Sources:ECB,BOE,Fred,AllianzResearch

03/22

SpainUS(rhs)

4SeeourAllianzTradeGlobalSurvey“

Troubletrade:Howwillexporters

adaptin2022?

”

18May2022

Second,ourproprietarydata511showthatthenumberoffragilecompaniesdecreasedin2021,particularlyinItaly(to7%from11%)andFrance(to12%from15%)incomparisontoGermany(to6%from7%)andtheUK(to17%from18%).

Third,provisionalreportingfortheongoingQ1earningseasonhasconfirmedthatlistedcompanieshavebeenfarmorecapableofpassingcostincreasesontopricesthanexpected.AsofearlyMay,ourmonitoringshowsthat68%ofcompaniesbeatexpectationsonsalesand62%onearningspershare.Inaddition,77%ofcompaniesbeatexpectationsforyear-on-yearsalesgrowthand60%didsowithearningspersharegrowth.Inmostcases,companiesprovidingguidanceforFY2022arekeepingorimprovingtheirsalestargets,whilekeepingearningpersharegrowthtargetsunchanged.

Figure7:Q12022earningsseason,reportedfinancialresults

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

76.6%

67.5%

61.6%60.4%

%companies

beatingsales

consensus

%companieswithYoYsalesgrowth

%companies

beatingEPS

consensus

%companieswithYoYEPSgrowth

Sources:ThomsonReutersEikon,AllianzResearch

AsofMay13,panelof4,900companiesforwhichQ1salesfiguresandequityestimatesareavailable,4,056companiesforwhichQ1EPSandequityestimatesareavailable

5Seeourpreviousreport

EuropeanSMEs:7-15%atriskofinsolvency

inthenextfouryears

;Methodologybasedonprofitability[EBIT/(Netfinancialdebt+Equity)],capitalization[Equity/Totalassets]andinterestcoverage[Ebit/Interestexpense].Historicalfiguresarenotfullycomparableduetochangesinthepanel(numberoffinancialsavailable).

7

ALLIANZRESEARCH

8

Sources:Refinitiv,AllianzResearch

2018201920202021

Agrifood

Automotive

Chemicals

Commodities

Computers&Telecom

Construction

Electronics

Energy

HouseholdEquipment

Machinery&Equipment

Metals

Paper

Pharmaceuticals

Retail

Services-Financials

Services-Nonfinancial:HORECA+TourismServices-Nonfinancial:otherBtBServices-Nonfinancial:otherBtCSoftware&ITservices

59

58

79

41

82

64

111

39

80

104

75

64

101

32

44

8

54

36

57

60

58

78

48

76

64

103

37

72

99

75

69

103

31

48

12

52

34

58

59

57

79

46

78

66

108

37

72

102

76

66

104

31

47

8

55

36

58

59

58

78

45

78

65

107

36

73

101

75

65

103

32

47

8

53

33

57

Byregion

NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

WesternEurope

EasternandCentralEuropeAfrica&MiddleEast

APAC

70

58

66

51

65

73

72

62

68

54

61

75

68

58

68

55

60

72

73

60

66

52

61

73

6Seeourreport

“Russiandolls:unwrappingcorporate(commodity)

dependencies”

AllianzResearch

Watchout

offragilities

forpocketsr

Lookingcloseratcompanies’financialrevealsthatcountriesareunevenlyexposed6,withsomesectorsandtypesoffirmsmorevulnerablethanothers.Foronething,despitealimitedincreaseatthegloballevelin2021,workingcapitalrequirements(WCR)increasedfurtherinAsia(+2days),CentralandEasternEurope(+2days)andLatinAmerica(+2days),aswellasinsectorssuchashouseholdequipment(+8days),electronics(+3days)andmachinery&equipment(+2days).Andtherisksareontheupsidefor2022duetotheriseininputcostsandtheneedforprecautionaryinventories.

Table8:WorkingCapitalRequirements(WCR),byglobalsectorandregion,innumberofdaysinturnover

Change

66666768

Byglobalsector

WORLDAVERAGE

1

0

1

0

-5

4

-2

3

2

8

2

-1

-2

-3

1

-3

0

-1

0

-2

-1

2

1

2

0

2

7FirmswithaturnoverexceedingEUR50mn

9

18May2022

Detailedfiguresofcashholdingsalsorevealseveraldiscrepancies,withclearwinnersandlosers.First,weseethatAsianfirmsarehoarding50%oftheglobalamount,aheadofNorthAmerica(24%).Intermsofsectors,consumerdiscretionaryleadsoncash-hoarding(18%),aheadofindustrials(17%)andthetechsector(15%).Second,certainsectorshaveclearlydemonstratedlessfavorableperformance,includingsuchasconsumerstaplesinFrance,communicationsintheUKandtheNetherlands.Finally,theoveralldynamicrarelymatchesthepaceofdeposits’forallNFCs,whichindirectlysuggeststhatlargefirmsbenefitedmorethanSMEsin2021intheNetherlands,theUK,GermanyandSpain.

Toacertainextent,theprolongedlowlevelofmajorinsolvencies7,with68casesinQ12022and260overthelastfourquarters,isanothersignofthegreaterresilienceoflargecompanies.ButthelargedropobservedintheUS(-113casesforthelastfourquarterscomparedtothepreviousfourquarters)andinWesternEurope(-28cases)shouldnotovershadowthelargelystablenumberofcasesinAsiaandChina,withthemostcasesseenintheconstructionsector.

Lookingatcashburning,weagainfindanunevendynamic

amongEuropeancountries,withmoreperiodsofcash

depletionthancashaccumulation,andwithaveragecash

depletiongaininginintensityoverthelasttwoquarters–

notablyinGermany,Italy,SpainandtheNetherlandsinQ4

2021,andFranceinQ12022.

Table9:Changeincash-holdingbysectorandcountry

US(23%)

China(21%)

Japan(12%)

France(4%)

Germany

(4%)

UK(3%)

Italy(1%)

Netherlands

(1%)

Spain(1%)

Belgium(0%)

RoW(30%)

GLOBAL

(100%)

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

21/2021/19

TOTAL

13%44%

9%16%

6%17%

3%34%

6%

29%

16%36%

8%59%

-6%34%

21%55%

9%

82%

18%30%

11%28%

Financials

16%55%

7%10%

5%15%

5%38%

4%

22%

19%40%

9%66%

-17%20%

21%58%

11%

95%

13%28%

10%28%

TOTAL(NFC)

6%26%

13%31%

12%27%

-5%20%

9%37%

2%16%

5%31%

37%87%

18%42%

-6%23%

27%33%

13%30%

Utilities

2%

42%

8%11%

-18%-24%

23%26%

91%117%

111%129%

7%11%

0%0%

37%77%

244%147%

16%21%

20%27%

Energy

49%56%

25%22%

-2%3%

-20%0%

2%22%

10%43%

-3%8%

98%58%

24%23%

0%-52%

29%30%

24%30%

ConsumerStaples

4%46%

8%24%

8%25%

-10%-12%

3%30%

-12%20%

22%28%

-18%22%

54%88%

-13%68%

14%26%

6%27%

Industrials

-2%32%

18%32%

5%8%

2%

19%

7%

35%

1%

35%

2%

41%

-5%58%

5%

25%

-11%20%

20%37%

10%29%

Communications

0%20%

28%39%

29%46%

16%8%

-28%49%

-30%-38%

47%117%

-14%-18%

70%53%

0%0%

8%

15%

8%21%

ConsumerDiscretionary

18%81%

18%50%

15%32%

-18%52%

8%25%

16%40%

8%41%

111%223%

-10%19%

-16%-20%

40%60%

19%53%

Materials

6%64%

25%39%

5%20%

-11%30%

-15%28%

25%46%

-10%62%

17%15%

11%42%

17%96%

19%37%

16%37%

HealthCare

16%16%

22%62%

4%14%

-26%12%

-2%62%

-9%9%

-3%21%

1%56%

176%211%

-42%-46%

33%57%

15%28%

RealEstate

-1%33%

-1%6%

1%12%

-1%32%

13%27%

-24%35%

19%18%

-31%-11%

41%55%

11%52%

6%21%

2%13%

Technology

2%8%

13%44%

14%28%

8%49%

38%46%

2%34%

6%51%

22%78%

-15%105%

-4%-8%

12%29%

8%21%

Sources:Bloomberg(panelof48,000listedfirms),AllianzResearch;(%)indicatestheshareofthegivencountryinglobalcash

AllianzResearch

Figure10:Cash-burningindicator,selectedcountries

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

FRANCEGERMANYITALYSPAINNETHERLANDSUK

H12020H22020H12021H22021Q12022

Sources:Bloomberg(paneloflistedfirms),Eurostat,

BOE,Fred,AllianzResearch

AnotherriskfactoristheelevatedindebtednessthathasresultedfromtheCovid-19crisis,whichcouldresultindebtsustainabilityissuesasinterestratesincrease.JapanandtheEurozonepostedthestrongestdeteriorationofNFCdebt-to-GDPratios(+13.5ppand+5.2pp,respectively)thantheUS(+3.5pp),thoughwenoticeawiderangewithintheEurozone(from+4.2ppinGermanyto+8.8ppinFrance).OurproprietarydataalsoconfirmthedeteriorationoftheleverageratioinItalyandGermany(+0.4ppto7.9%and+0.9ppto3.9%,respectively).Inarecentstudyusingpaneldata810,wefoundcompanieswillfinditincreasinglychallengingtoabsorblossesintermsofmarginsamidhighcostinflationandslowingdemand,whichcouldlowercorporatepricingpowerinthecomingquarters.Wecalculatethatanincreaseof100bpinkeyinterestrateswouldtranslateintoa-2.3ppfallinNFCmarginsinFrancecomparedto-1ppinGermany,-1.5ppintheUKand-1.4ppintheUS.

8Seeourreport

France:Turnthemusicofftohearthebellstolling

10

Figure11:Majorinsolvencies,quarterlynumberbysizeofturnoverinEURmn

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

143

Between100mand999,9m

Between50mand99,9m

114

Cumulativeturnoverofinsolventfirms(EURmn)-rhs

92908991

82

79

747475

7171

6566

62

59

44

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

2016201720182019202020212022

94

87

84848585

68

1000mandabove

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

Source:AllianzResearch

+5.2pp

DeteriorationofNFCdebt-to-GDP

ratiointheEurozone.

11

18May2022

Figure12:Non-FinancialCorporations(NFC)debtratio,in%ofGDP,selectedcountries

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

990103050709111315171921

JapanFranceItaly

SpainUKUS

Germany

Sources:BanquedeFrance,AllianzResearch

Figure13:Europe:shareoffragilecompaniesandleverageratio,selectedcountries

Leverageratio

Fragilecompanies

18%

7.9

17%17%7.5

15%15%

12%

11%

3.9

3.0

7%7%8%7%

6%

2.22.1

0.40.3

Italy

UK

Italy

Germany

France

UK

20202021

GermanyFrance

201920202021

Source:AllianzResearch

Thereturn

ofstatesupport

AllianzResearch

TheglobalshocksinducedbythewarinUkraineandtherenewedlockdownsinChinacouldkickstartanextendedroundofsupportmeasures,whichwoulddelaythenormalizationininsolvencies.The