毕马威：2022年全球矿业展望

GlobalMining

Outlook2022

Extractingkeyinsightsforminingleaders

KPMGInternational

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Foreword

Changingtimes

E

versincewebeganourglobalsurveyofminingexecutives12yearsago,onethinghasbeenconstant:thetopriskfortheindustryhasalwaysbeencommodityprices.

Sothisyearmarksquiteamoment:commoditiesmarketshavelosttheirplaceatthetopoftheriskradar,overtakenbyenvironmentalrisksandregulations.Theenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)agendaloomslarge—thethirdtoprisk(communityrelationsandsociallicensetooperate)isalsorelatedtoESG.

Foranindustrythatinherentlyoperatesoverthelongterm,theseshiftsinashortspaceoftimearestriking.Theyunderlinetheextenttowhichclimatechange-relatedissuesandESGmorebroadlyarereframingcorporateprioritiesinmining,asinalmosteverybusinesssector.Theyalsoinfluencetheattractivenessoftheindustrytothenewanddiversetalentitrequires.

ESGisbecomingevermoretopofmindinminingcompanyboardrooms,butthisdoesn’tmeanthatotheropportunitiesandriskshavefallenaway.Commoditypriceswillalwaysbethecommerciallynchpinoftheindustry’sfortunes—andwithpricesridinghigh,executivesinthisyear’ssurvey

aregenerallyinaconfidentmood.Theriskismorearoundpricevolatility,withsomemarkedswingsoflatechallengingestablishedLMEtradingsystems,withtemporarysuspensionofnickeltradingasaresult.1

Anotherdramaticdifferencethisyearisthatthepandemichasdisappearedfromthetop10,afterleapinginatnumbertwolastyear.NowitseemsliketheindustryregardsCOVID-19assomethingitcanincorporateintobusinessasusualasglobaldemandforcommoditiestopowertheeconomicrecoverybuilds.

However,thepandemichascertainlyleftitslegacy.Supplychainissueshavebecomemoreprominent.Politicalinstability,nationalizationandtheglobaltradeconflictthreathaveallbecomefront-linefactorstoo.OursurveywascarriedoutbeforetheterribleeventsinUkraineunfolded.Isuspectthatifweweretore-runitnow,theseriskswouldbeappreciablyhigherstill.

Frommyobservation,theopportunitiesfortheindustryareoutstanding.Theimportanceofthesectorfortheworld’sfuturehasbeengainingmoreandmoreprominenceandIbelieveitfindsitselfinsuchastrongpositiontodeliver.

Astheworld’ssupplychains

looktomeetrisingdemands,theminingindustryfindsitselfincreasinglyinthespotlight,beingchallengedtoquicklydeliverthematerialstheworldneedsinawaythatisacceptabletomoreandmorestakeholders.Inmyview,transparencyandhigh-qualityengagementwillbecritical.Forthosewhogetitright,Ibelievetherewardswillbesignificant!”

TrevorHart

GlobalHeadofMining

KPMGInternational

1Reuters,LMEforcedtohaltnickeltrading,canceldeals,afterpricestop$100,000,EricOnstad,March2022.

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Contents

Shiftsintherisklandscape

Confidenceandcapital

ESGwitheverything

Technologytransformation

Talentchallenge

Miningthedata—CountryperspectivesKPMG’sGlobalMiningpracticeMethodologyandacknowledgements

Abouttheauthors

4

7

10

14

17

19

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Shiftsintherisk

landscape

W

hilethebiggestexternalriskeventseeninageneration—theglobalCOVID-19pandemic—hasreceded,itisnotablethatthetoprisksfacingtheminingindustrygenerallycomefromoutsideratherthanwithin.

“Breadandbutter”industryriskssuchascommodityprices,permittingrisksandaccesstoreservesarestillkeyissues,butitistherisksthatarisefromexternalities,suchasenvironmentalregulationsandgeopoliticalfactors,thatarereallytakingupexecutivethinkingtime.

Thestandoutfeatureofthisyear’sresultsisthattwoESG-relatedrisksareinthetopthree.WewilldelvedeeperintoESGshortly.Meanwhile,politicalinstabilityandglobaltradeconflictcompletethetopfive.GiventheeventsinEasternEurope,theseconcernsmaybeevenhigherrightnow.

54%

agreethattheminingindustry

needstoconsolidateto

managecostsandrisksmore

effectivelygoingforward.

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Certainly,ourresearchunderlineshowquicklypoliticalscenariosandrisklandscapescanchangeinrealtime.Onaregionalbasis,executivesinEurope,theMiddleEastandAfrica(EMA)wereleastworriedaboutpoliticalinstability.Inourview,thiswillsurelyhavechangednow.ThosemostworriedbypoliticalinstabilitywererespondentsinLatinAmerica,whichisconsistentwithTheEconomist’srecentDemocracyIndexfindingsfortheregion2.

Threeofthetoprisksidentified(tradewar,regulatoryshocks,politicalstability)couldbedescribedmorebroadlyasgeopoliticalrisks.Unsurprisingly,businessesarefeelingtheimpactofgrowinggeopoliticalvolatilityinaworldofuncertainpowerdynamics.Themostpreciouscommodityforglobalbusinessestoplan,investandgrowisstability.Thisisbecomingararecommodityintoday’sfracturedworld.Webelievemoretime,moneyandeffortwillhavetobeinvestedbyminingcompanyboardsandstrategyteamstohelpnavigatepoliticalminefields.

Onthepositiveside,lastyear’sconcernsovertheriskofaneconomicdownturnhavedropped—mostlikelyduetothesubsidenceofthepandemicduring2021andthetransitionintotherecoveryphase.Alongsidethis,accesstocapitalhasfallenoutoftheindustrytop10fromlastyear,indicatingthatminingorganizationsaremoreconfidentintheirabilitytoraisefundingandinvestment.Nevertheless,whenexecutiveswereaskedtorankrisksspecificallyfortheirown

companiesratherthanonanindustry-widebasis,itdoesfeatureinthetop10,suggestingsomeunevennessaccordingtotheindividualprofileandcommodityspecializationofthebusiness.Thosespecializingincoal,forexample,mayfinditbecomeshardertosecureinvestmentinthefuture.

Inflationhoversasanewconcern,justonthefringesofthetop10.Certainly,supplychainissues—theeighthtoprisk—havebeendrivingariseinthecostofmaterialsandsupplies,whileeconomiesgloballyarebeginningtowrestlewithinflationarypressures.Inourview,energycostsforbusinessesarerocketingandthereisalsoupwardpressureonwages.Overhalf(54percent)ofexecutivesagreethatsomeconsolidationisneededintheindustrytomanagecosts—risinginflationwillonlyaddtothis.

Thereisanothernotablenewentrant—thetalentcrisis.Attractingandretainingtherightpeopleisbecominganincreasinglyliveissuefortheindustry.Onanindustry-widebasis,thetalentcrisisisatop10issue,whilewhenaskedaboutrisksfortheirownspecificorganization,executivesrankattractingandretainingtalentatnumberseven.Theworkforceisanagingoneandattractinganewgenerationoftalentwiththerightskillsetsfortoday’sshiftingpriorities(suchastechnologyandESG-relatedexpertise)ischallenging.It’sanissuethatconfrontsalmosteveryplayerintheindustry—andonethatwediscussinmoredetailalittlelateron.

Theworkforce

isanagingoneand

attractingnew-generationtalentwiththerightskillsetsfortoday’sshiftingpriorities(suchastechnologyandESG-relatedspecialisms)ischallenging.

2TheEconomist,DemocracyIndex2021:lessthanhalftheworldlivesinademocracy,February2022.

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Toprisksfortheminingindustry

2022Rank2021

Environmentalrisks,includingnewregulations

0

1Commoditypricerisk

Commoditypricerisk0

2Globalpandemic

Communityrelationsandsociallicensetooperate

0

3Economicdownturn/uncertainty

Politicalinstability/nationalization0

4

Communityrelationsandsociallicensetooperate

Globaltradeconflict0

5

Environmentalrisks,including

newregulations

Abilitytoaccessandreplacereserves

0

6Permittingrisk

Permittingrisk0

7Politicalinstability

Supplychainrisks

0

8Accesstocapital,includingliquidity

Talentcrisis

NEW

0

9Abilitytoaccessandreplacereserves

Regulatoryandcompliancechanges/burden

10

Regulatoryandcompliancechanges/burden

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62%

Confidence

andcapital

T

heworldneedsminerals—andindeed,asthemovetowardsdecarbonizationandenergytransitionaccelerates,mineralslikelithium,cobalt,graphiteandotherscouldseeenormousgrowthindemandastheKPMGreport

Resourcingtheenergytransition

hasexplored.

Therefore,itisnosurprisethatminingexecutivesaregenerallyconfidentaboutthefuture,withariseinoptimismcomparedtolastyear’ssurvey.Overhalf(56percent)saytheyaremoreoptimisticabouttheoutlookfortheirorganizationcomparedtoayearago,includingnearlyone-fifth(18percent)whoare“significantly”moreoptimistic.Oversixin10(62percent)areconfidentorveryconfidentaboutgrowthprospects,albeitthisisfractionallydownfromayearago(66percent).

“Fromwhatwe’veobserved,commoditypricesareskyhigh—ifvolatile—andthisisgenerallyunderpinningindustryconfidence,”observesTrevorHartofKPMG.

ofrespondentsareconfident

inthegrowthprospectsfor

theirorganizationoverthe

next12months.

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Topstrategiesforgrowth

Morethan6in10

agreethatminingcompaniesneedtoembracenewbusinessmodelssuchasstrategicpartnerships,privateequityandpublic-privatepartnerships.

01

Organicgrowth

Aswehavenoted,accesstocapitalhasdropped

outofthetop10industryrisklist—andwhen

askedspecificallyaboutthetopic,executives’

responsesshowageneralimprovementinthe

position.Thirty-sevenpercentagreethataccess

totraditionalsourcesofcapital(debt/equity)has

improvedoverthelastyear,arisefrom32percent

inthe2021survey,andtherehasbeenan

equivalentdropinthosewhoagreethataccessto

capitalisasignificantconstraint.

02

Mergersandacquisitions

03

Productivitygainsfrom

existingoperations

However,responsesarenotuniform,indicating

thatwhilethegeneraltrendisimproving,forsome

organizationsaccesstocapitalischallenging.And

onanindividualcompanybasis,itsitsatnumber

10onthetoprisklist.

HealthycashandgoodaccesstocapitalareindicationsthatM&Aisontheagenda.Butforsomeminingcompanies,accesstocapitalisharder.Combinedwithrisingregulatoryrequirementsforpubliccompanies,wemayseemoreminingassetsgoingprivate.”

04

Innovationandtechnologicaltransformation

Perhapsitisasaresultofthisthatwesee

someinterestingtrendsemerging.Firstly,

nearlytwo-thirdsofrespondents(62percent)

agreeorstronglyagreethatcompaniesneedto

embracenewbusinessmodels,suchasstrategic

partnerships,privateequityandpublic-private

partnerships.Thisisespeciallymarkedamong

organizationswithamarketcapitalizationof

lessthanUS$5billion.Therearesignsthata

combinationoffundingfactorsandtheincreasing

ESG-relatedscrutiny,reportingandregulatory

requirementsplacedonpubliccompaniesis

leadingmoreminingbusinessestocontemplate

alternativemodels.

RichardMetzner

KPMGintheUS

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Itisincreasinglydifficultfora

publicminingcompanytosucceedwiththetraditionalbusinessmodel.Today’scompaniesneedtoembracenewbusinessmodelssuchasstrategicpartnerships,privateequityfundingand

public-privatepartnerships.

Secondly,therehasbeenanincreaseinthosebusinessessayingthatmergersandacquisitions(M&As)willbeanimportantstrategytoachievetheirgrowthobjectives.Organicgrowthis

stillseenasthenumberonemethodformostbusinesses(56percent)asitwaslastyear,butM&Aisaclearsecondat37percent,upfrom

31percentayearago.M&Ahaslongbeenafeatureoftheindustry,withbigplayersbuyingsmallerbusinessesasafasterroutetoincreasingfootprintandproductionthanthelongprocessofstartinganewgreenfieldsite.ThesignsarethatM&Aactivityissettorisefurtherintheyearsahead—albeit,ifvaluationsstayhigh,businessesmayweighupthecostofM&Aagainstinvestingintheirexistingbrownfieldsites.

Theabilityfortheminingindustrytoaccesstraditionalsourcesofcapitalhasimprovedoverthelast12months.

37%

32%

63%

Agree

Thebestopportunitiesarearoundexistingmines.So,themostcost-effectivewaytofindmoreprofitableoresisthroughthedrillbit,ratherthanpayingpremiumforcompaniesthatarealreadyfullyvalued.Althoughtherearealwaysexceptionstothat.”

LessthanUS$5billion

54%

Agree

JeffParr

20212022

ViceChairman

AgnicoEagleMinesLimited

MorethanUS$5billion

9

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ESGwith

everything

I

nthewakeoflastyear’sCOP26summit,countrieshavecommittedtoambitiousnetzeroanddecarbonizationtargets(includingarounddeforestation)—andforthesetobecomeareality,companieswillhavetoadoptstretchingtargetstoo.Thisplacesafocusonindustrieswithahighcarbonfootprintandenvironmentalimpact,suchasmining.

Theimpactofthisisnotbeingunderestimatedbyminingexecutives:nearlythree-quartersofthem(72percent)agreeorstronglyagreethatESGwillbeacauseofmajordisruptionintheindustryoverthecomingthreeyears.

TheyalsorecognizethatESGissueswilldrivesignificantbusinessmodelchange.Overeightin10executives(84percent)agreeorstronglyagreethatsuccessinthelongrunwillbecomeincreasinglydependentondefiningsuccessinmorethanjustfinancialterms,requiringtheneedtolookmoreholisticallyatstakeholderreturns,includinggovernments,communitiesandemployees.

84%

ofrespondentsbelievetheabilitytoachieve

successinthelongrunisbecoming

increasinglydependentupontheirabilityto

definesuccessinabroadertermthan

financial.

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Thisraisesplentyofopportunity,asNickHarridge

ofKPMGAustraliacomments:“Socialand

investorexpectationstowardsESGarepushing

minerstoinvestininnovativewaysandadapt

atafasterpace.Weexpecttheopportunityto

commercializenewtechnologieswillcontinue

tofuelmoreinnovationandinvestment,further

increasingthepaceofchange.Thisisanexciting

timefortheminingindustry.”

Ofcourse,certainESGconcernsarenothing

newfortheindustry.Formanyyears,mining

companieshavebeenusedtocomplyingwith

environmentalregulationsandhealthand

safetyrules,andengagingandinvestingin

thecommunitieswheretheyoperate.

72%

ofrespondentsexpect

disruptioninthemining

sectorduetoESGinthe

nextthreeyears.

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Webelievethere'snodoubtthatthescrutinyfrom

outsidestakeholdersandinvestorshasrisen—andtheirexpectationstoo.AsManuelFernandesofKPMGinBrazilobserves:“Licensetooperateusedtobeanice-to-have—nowwebelieveit’samust.”

InvestorsareincreasinglybasingtheirinvestmentdecisionsaroundESGmetrics,aswellasexpectingsomedegreeofESG-relatedduediligenceinconnectionwithacquisitionsornewventures.Atthesametime,reportingrequirements—togetherwithassuranceovertheirdisclosures—areexpectedtorise.

IncreasedstakeholderinterestinESGtargetsandrisinginvestorexpectationsaresignsthatminingbusinessesarehavingtochangetheirfocusandmakelonger-termcommitmentsthey’venothadtomakeinthepast.”

KatherineWetmore

KPMGinCanada

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Oneproblemtheindustryisgrapplingwithis

thattherulesandrequirementsthatwillemergearenotyetclear.Andinsteadofcomingmoreintofocusovertime,oursurveyshowsthat,infact,executivesbelievethesituationhasbecomelessclear.Overhalf(55percent)ofexecutivesdisagreedorstronglydisagreedthatinvestorexpectationsandmeasuresareclearlyunderstoodandconsistentacrossthemarket—ayearago,thatfigurestoodat40percent.

“Miningcompanieslikeclarityandcertainty.SotheyarewrestlingwiththequestionofhowtheyshouldreporttothemarketabouttheirESGprogresswhenit'snotreallyclearyetwhatgoodlookslike,”commentsTrevorHart,GlobalHeadofMiningatKPMGInternational.

ESGreportingstandardsandrequirementsareactivelybeingdevelopedbyvariousbodiesandshouldbefinalizedinthecomingyears.Inthemeantime,miningcompaniesshouldkeepclosetodevelopmentsandstayactivelyengagedwithinvestorsandotherstakeholders,helpingtoensuretheyarecommunicatingclearlyaroundtheirESGefforts,targetsandmeasures.

Atthesametime,communityengagementiscriticallyimportant.Inthelastfewyears,variousincidentshaveshownthatsociallicensetooperateishardwonandeasilylost.Inasocialmediaage,therepercussionscanspreadgloballyatlightningspeed.Inourview,itisanticipatedthatcontinuedandincreasedengagementwithcommunities—understandingandrespondingtoconcernsanddeliveringinvestmentprogramsthatenhancethequalityofcommunitylife—willbekey.

55%

ofrespondentsdonotbelieveESGexpectationsareclearlyunderstoodandconsistentacrossthemarket.

Togettoa30percentcarbonreductionby2030,weneedtobringmore

renewablesintoourbusiness.Doingthatforourhighcarbon-emitting

sites—convertingthemtowindorsolar—willtakeustothat30percent

targetincombinationwithotherefficiencies.”

IvanMullany

SeniorVicePresidentofProjects

NewmontCorporation

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Technology

transformation

O

neimportantwayofreducingcarbonfootprintisthroughtheadoptionofnewtechnologies—with87percentofexecutivesbelievingthattechnologyhasakeyroletoplayinsolvingESGchallenges.Nearlyhalfofexecutives(46percent)believethattechnologicalinnovationwillbeasourceofmajordisruptionintheindustryoverthecomingthreeyears,andnearlyeveryoneisdeterminedtojumponthisasanopportunityratherthanathreat.

Itisnotdifficulttoseehowtheadoptionofnewtechnologiescouldhelpminingcompaniesreducetheiroperationalcarbonemissions.Ifminingequipmentandtruckscouldrunonelectricbatteries(orhydrogen,asisbeginningtobetrialedinAustralia),ratherthandieselorpetrol,thecarbongainscouldbesignificant.Moregenerally,miningcompaniesarelookingtoembracerenewableenergysourcestotakefossilfuelsoutoftheproductionprofile—but(asforotherindustries)thisremainsrelativelyearlydays.

87%

ofrespondentsbelievethat

technologyandinnovation

willplayakeyroleinsolving

ESGchallenges.

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84%

46%

KatherineWetmoreofKPMGinCanadapoints

outthattheindustryknowstechnologycanhelpitmeetitsenvironmentalchallenges,butaddsthat“securingthetalenttoenableittodothisiskey.”

Technologysolutionsarealsoneededtohelpwithsociallicensetooperate,suchasnewtechniquesthatminimizegrounddisturbanceandtheimpactonflora,faunaandwildlifeecosystems.

Elsewhere,technologyisalreadyhelpingminingcompaniesbecomemoreefficientandreducecosts,suchasusingdronetechnologyforsurveys.Sensorsarebeingusedtoenhanceproductivityandalsohealthandsafety,indicatingwhenfatiguelevelsmayberisingamongtheworkforce.Technologycanalsobeharnessedtocreatereal-timedatastreamsthatenablemoreinformeddecisionmaking;forexample,bybuildingclosed5Gnetworksatminingsites.

Whatevertheapplication,it’sclearthatincreasingtechnologyadoptionisverymuchontheexecutiveradar.

Miningcompaniesarenotwell-knownastechnologicaldisruptors.Butthereisamandatenowtoinvestmoreintechnologytocomeupwithsolutionstothechallengesoftoday—fromESGtoproductivitytowaysofloweringcosts.”

ManuelFernandes

KPMGinBrazil

ofrespondentsexpectmajortechnologicalinnovationtodisrupttheminingindustryinthenextthreeyears.

ofrespondentsbelievetechnologicaldisruptionwillbeanopportunityversusathreat.

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Thereisanopportunityforgrowthfromembracingtechnology.Youdon’tnecessarilyneedtobuyorfindmoreore.

There’stechnologyemergingnowthatisstartingtoletusreducecut-offgrades,forexample,andproducemoreofwhatwealreadyhaveanddothatprofitably.”

JeffParr

ViceChairman,

AgnicoEagleMinesLimited

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Talent

challenge

businessthrowsupanewrequirementofitsown—obtainingthepeople

toimplement,applyandoptimizeit.TheKPMGandEvershedsSutherlandreporton

ClimateChangeandthePeopleFactor

foundthattechnicalskillstomanageclimatechangeandcarbonmarketsexpertiseareinthemostdemandintheEnergyandNaturalResourcessector.

T

heneedwehavejustdiscussedtointegratenewtechnologyintothe

Aswehavenoted,talentattractionandretentionareverymuchontheminingexecutiveagenda—comingbackintothisyear’sindustrytop10risks.

Thereisasentimentthattheindustryneedsanewwaveoftalenttofulfilarangeofspecializedand/ortechnology-centricroles.Theseneedsareonlygettingbroader:dataanalysts,computerscientists,environmentalscientists,heritageexperts,watermanagementspecialists,andmore.

Weseeanopportunitytoattractmore

talent,specificallymorediversetalent,

intothebusinesstosupportthingslikeour

operationalsupporthubs.”

SeniorVicePresidentofProjects

IvanMullany

NewmontCorporation

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Someminingcompaniesareinvestingintheirpeopleprogramsandmanyhaveattractivemobilityschemesthatenabletalentedindividualstotravelandworkaroundtheworld.

Butwithoutdoubt,theongoingrecruitmentandretentionoftalentisanissuethatistopofmindforminingexecutives.AsRichardMetzner,KPMGintheUS,observes,“Companiesareaskingthemselves—what’souremployeeoffer,whattrade-offsmustwemaketosecurethetalentweneed?”

Toadegree,thisisanareawherekeyissuesjoinup:pursuingsuccessfulESGstrategiesthatdecarbonizethesectorhighlightsaprogressivemovetorenewableenergyandtechnologytransformation,andemphasizespositivecommunityimpacts,whichcanhelptheindustryattractmoreofthetalentitneeds.

Boardsareneedingmorediverseskillsetstoconsiderthebroaderarrayofopportunitiesandchallengesfacingtheircompanies.”

NickHarridge

KPMGAustralia

Warfor

talent

Ninthmostpressingriskfacingminingindustryandorganizations

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