银行业资负跟踪：如何看Q2央行问卷调查结果

银行行业银行行业如何看Q2央行问卷调查结果？——银行资负跟踪20230702家、城因此本次问卷调查结果可能并未包含降息影响。货币政策发力会对银行间利率形成向下牵引，而财政扩张会对银行间后看实体流动性和宏观经济预期均有改善空间。度超预期。告日期相对市场表现3-07-0207/2203/2305/2309/2211/2207/2203/2305/23-3%-8%-22% 银行沪深300倪军倪军03646omSFCCENoBQV9100364503644wujiahuigfcomcn请注意，倪军,伍嘉慧并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。银行行业2023年中期投资策2023-06-25动23-06-20业:LPR23-06-202023-06-18行业:2023-06-180618文雪enxueyang@银行司估值和财务分析表称码报告日期级合理价值(元/股)2023E2024E2023E2024E2023E2024E2023E2024E8.SH.82/5/5154.594.190.500.46行9.SH/5/3534.574.090.530.48银行8.SH/4/30.16.780.884.534.010.510.478.SH/5/4.770.82.084.770.520.488.SH.89/4/27144.894.290.600.548.SH/4/30374.724.230.470.436.SH/4/27.936.87.524.770.880.780.SH/4/19614.644.500.340.32银行/5/34.204.49.733.490.450.418.SH/5/4.750.844.093.650.400.36行.SZ/4/2562.593.094.343.630.530.46.SZ0/4/28.75.974.766.375.320.950.829.SH/5/4164.193.700.590.53杭州银行6.SH/6/272.342.93.024.010.750.65行8.SH/4/267.173.84.853.180.720.6116/4/2048.544.610.760.66K.18/5/515.693.370.400.37行K/5/353.433.070.400.36银行K/4/30.780.88.663.240.410.38K/5/4.49.770.82.783.550.380.36K/4/3037.913.510.390.36K/4/27.936.87.574.800.890.78K/5/4.23.750.842.782.480.270.25K.82/4/27144.473.920.550.49银行 13率：月末周票据利率回落 15 (一)同业存单：本周存单发行上量，3M占比34% 20 银行表索引 图25：央行逆回购余额(亿元) 14 图31：票据转贴现利率(3个月)(%) 18图32：票据转贴现利率(6个月)(%) 19 A ) 24银行 表1：近期央行公开市场操作一览(亿元) 13 表4：同业存单信用利差及到期收益率结构(环比变动单位为bp，其余均为%) 表9：商业银行债券发行情况(亿元) 30 表12：二级资本工具发行情况(亿元) 32表13：永续债发行情况(亿元) 32 银行一、本期观察：如何看待二季度央行问卷调查结果？2023年6月29日，央行发布2023年第二季度企业家、银行家、城镇储户问卷调查报经济预期冲高，进入Q2后，一方面实体需求在Q1有所透支，另一方面，22Q4以来售增速再次回落，市场悲观情绪有所蔓延。pct当期就业感受指数环比下行2.3pct，同比提升2.0pct，未来就业预期指数环比下行t季度回升，23Q2环比提升1.3pct，幅度大于23Q1(0.4pct)，消费偏好以旅游、娱。pct季度整体企业经营状况不差。Q求有一定透支；(2)当前银Q落，居民储蓄意愿仍偏高，预计上半年息差保持收银行-03-06-09-039-06-090-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-03-06-099-03-06-09-03-03-06-09-039-06-090-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-03-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-031-06-09-03-06-09-03-06时考虑到财政已经退坡了接近三个季度，在既定财政预算下，前期退坡就是后期发图1：中国:银行家宏观经济热度指数(%).000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00 -038-06-09-03-06-09-03-060-09-038-06-09-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06)图2：中国:宏观经济预期指数(%).00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-0665.00.00.00银行-038-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-038-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06图7：中国:当期收入感受指数(%).00.00-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.002.00.00-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06图6：中国:货币政策感受指数(%)75.0070.0065.0060.0055.0050.0045.0040.0035.0030.008-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-098-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-031-06-09-03-06-09-03-06图8：中国:未来收入信心指数(%).00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.00.00.00.00.00.000.00-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-------------------------------------------03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-060000000000-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-0600.00000000 -03-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-060.00.00.00.00.00.00.00-03-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-0600银行----------------------.00000000 -03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-062-09-033-06.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00 -03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.000000-03-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.000.00.00.00.00-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.000-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06银行-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.00.0006月最后两周央行逆回购净投放1.12万亿元(见表1)，截至6月30日，逆回购余额高调节回归，政策重心重回稳增长，因此央行加大了短期流动性投放，预计短期内资金面收紧的概率不大。6月最后两周存单发行继续放量，合计发行1.13万亿元，日均发行1258亿元(上期1083亿元)，发行利率回升6bp(见图34)。期限结构上，3M存单规模占比上升至期限回落至0.56年(上期0.60年)，月末两周票据利率震荡回落，显示6月下旬信贷投放可能偏弱。长债利率小幅上升后回落(见图26)，截至月末为2.64%，略低于1整体实现净投放5,570亿元。下期央行公开市场将有11,690亿元逆回购到期。p银行率90.9%，其中AA+级以下87.7%。加权平均发行利率2.28%，较上期上行6bp，加权发行期限0.56年(上期：0.60年)。本期同业存单到期9,449亿元，到期存单加权2亿元。下期无商业银行债到期。的(三)下期关注：跨季央行流动性投放和资金面波动，关注央行流动性投放和资金面波动情况。银行二、央行动态与市场利率(一)央行动态：6月下旬央行逆回购放量本期(2023年6月26日~6月30日)央行公开市场共开展9,730亿元7天逆回购操作，逆回购到期4,160亿元，整体实现净投放5,570亿元。下期央行公开市场将有11,690表1：近期央行公开市场操作一览(亿元)起始日购回购到期存款机构债权月度环比变1111111111/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/25/6/21/6/20/6/19/6/16/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/25/6/21/6/20/6/19/6/1600000-- 1,450 1,820 890 440 20 20 20 20------------------------------54555/6/26/6/19/6/12/6/5/5/29/7/2/6/25/6/18/6/11/6/4160-- 2,370---- 2,000-------/6/1/6/3000-/5/1/5/3101/4/1/4/3006/3/1/3/31040008100/2/1/2/2809907/1/1/1/310/12/1/12/313100/10/1/10/31/9/1/9/300000/8/1/8/31000005/7/1/7/3100/6/1/6/3000000011111/7/3/7/4/7/5/7/6/7/7/7/3/7/4/7/5/7/6/7/740000-----银行图25：央行逆回购余额(亿元)0-2526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031d银行(二)市场利率：月末周票据利率回落p%)4.00000002023年5月2023年4月2023年3月2023年2月2022年6月2526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031d银行表2：银行间市场主要基准利率及环比变化情况(环比变动单位为bp，其余均为%)标名称标名称环比变化(单位bp)50/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/2/5/26标名称SHIBOR:1MSHIBOR:3MSHIBOR:6MSHIBOR:9MSHIBOR:1Y环比变化(单位bp).00/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/22023/5/26标名称NCD(AAA):1MNCD(AAA):3MNCD(AAA):6MNCD(AAA):9MNCD(AAA):1Y环比变化(单位bp)3/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/22023/5/26标名称国债收益率:1Y国债收益率:3Y国债收益率:5Y国债收益率:10Y国债收益率:30Y环比变化(单位bp)/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/2/5/26银行图28：贷款利率(%).50.00贷贷款市场报价利率(LPR):5年金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率 4.304.203.653.55 2.752.65半年票据转贴现利率(%)-1月3月半年银行图30：票据转贴现利率(1个月)(%)-2023年6月上月去年同月去年上月2023年4月2023年3月2023年2月23242526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031nd图31：票据转贴现利率(3个月)(%)2023年6月上月去年同月去年上月2023年4月2023年3月2023年2月-23242526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031nd图32：票据转贴现利率(6个月)(%)-2023年6月上月同月上月23年4月2023年3月2023年2月232425262728293031119202122232425262728293031234567891011121415161718nd银行/15/10/5/301/25/20/17/12/7/10/272/22/16/12/7/2/271/22/17/14/15/10/5/301/25/20/17/12/7/10/272/22/16/12/7/2/271/22/17/14/9/4/290/242/19/13/10/5/31/251/20/15/12/7/2日，下期为2023年7月3日~2023年7月9日。限为151天。2.发行：本期总发行11,320亿元，日均发行1,258亿元(上期1,083亿元)，本期加权平均发行利率2.28%(上期2.22%)，AAA级加权平均发行利率2.28%(上(上期：0.60年)，1年期发行占比32.0%(上期：30.6%)，3个月期发行占比33.9%(上期：18.2%)。(上期：84.1%)。为2.38%。图33：【存量】存量同业存单规模与平均票面利率(左轴：亿元，右轴：%)存量同业存单规模与平均票面利率(亿元，%)存量存单平均票面利率-右轴5000一天(每周日，本周为2023/07/02)。银行0000分银行类型实际发行额(周，亿元)与总募集成功率(周，%)2022/5/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/42/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2图35：【发行】同业存单募集完成率以及AA+以下同业存单募集完成率(周，%)同业存单募集完成率(周，%)/8/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/62022/11/20/42/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2银行起始日M3M合计单位：%)环比上期变动(单位:bp)19.267.167.769.723.086.9092023/6/192023/7/2552023/6/122023/6/181.972.112.212.262.372.223/6/53/6/52023/6/1151.992.132.282.3352023/5/292023/6/42.112.112.192.322.392.462.3852023/5/222023/5/282.042.202.202.342.422.492.34单位：%)环比上期变动(单位:bp)10.3611.1712.368.224.898.282023/6/192023/7/292023/6/192023/7/29552023/6/122023/6/181.892.052.092.232.322.1653/6/52023/6/111.941.942.082.562.292.362.21/5/29/6/4/5/29/6/4552023/5/222023/5/281.901.902.182.292.382.452.32股份行平均票面利率(单位：%)环比上期变动(单位:bp)10.8513.6227.2310.995.208.8792023/6/1792023/6/172023/6/30552023/6/102023/6/161.942.042.062.252.332.202023/6/32023/6/32023/6/952023/5/272023/6/22023/5/272023/6/25552023/5/132023/5/191.952.232.322.442.492.43城商行平均票面利率(单位：%)环比上期变动(单位:bp)16.835.367.427.633.773.5692023/6/172023/6/30552023/6/102023/6/162.072.162.212.352.462.272023/6/32023/6/32023/6/952.102.192.252.3852023/5/272023/6/22.002.002.272.322.462.542.4252023/5/202023/5/262.022.022.292.362.442.542.39农商行平均票面利率(单位：%)环比上期变动(单位:bp)12.129.927.45-1.990.394.72992023/6/172023/6/3052023/6/102023/6/162.172.172.162.212.452.512.2552023/6/32023/6/92.252023/5/272023/5/272023/6/2552023/5/202023/5/262.152.152.302.362.452.592.38银行表4：同业存单信用利差及到期收益率结构(环比变动单位为bp，其余均为%)同业存单信用利差(bp)%)级/期限环比上期变化(1/6/3094/6/23.9725/6/1600/6/9276/6/2831级/期限MMMMYMMMMY环比上期变化(1/6/3020/6/23.9782/6/16.8350/6/9.36.337/6/2.543级/期限环比上期变化(4/6/30/6/23/6/16/6/9/6/2.28图36：【发行】同业存单发行规模、加权发行期限以及9M以上发行占比(左轴：年、%；右轴：亿元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/42022/12/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/200-银行/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2图37：【发行】国有大行同业存单发行规模、加权发行期限以及9M以上发行占比(左轴：年、%；右轴：亿元)发行规模-亿元,右轴加权发行期限9M以上发行占比%00-图38：【发行】股份行同业存单发行规模、加权发行期限以及9M以上发行占比(左轴：年、%；右轴：亿元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/200-图39：【发行】城商行同业存单发行规模、加权发行期限以及9M以上发行占比(左轴：年、%；右轴：亿元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2-图40：【发行】农商行同业存单发行规模、加权发行期限以及9M以上发行占比(左轴：年、%；右轴：亿元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/92022/10/23/62022/11/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/20-M银行表5：同业存单周度发行期限结构起始日分期限实际发行额(亿元)各期限发行额占比M以上9/6/19/7/23,8342,0388%32%0%5/6/12/6/186741,27412%24%31%5/6/5/6/1120%24%21%5%5/5/29/6/436584115%34%37%5/5/22/5/2806%23%10%32%2%5/5/15/5/21882782773216%43%5/5/8/5/14115%1%42%4%3/5/1/5/711,166607447712%9%46%5/4/24/4/3081,63670333816%8%29%6/4/17/4/23108821%3%46%9%5/4/10/4/1614020%2%42%4%4/4/3/4/97%2%29%5/3/27/4/2227326%2%5/3/20/3/2657934414%8%46%5/3/13/3/1988311,560512%22%37%5/3/6/3/12819%19%30%9%5/2/27/3/572940510%47%5/2/20/2/2692,2545897222%%0%5/2/13/2/1941,0722,00532%23%5/2/6/2/1291683312%47%16%7/1/23/2/53475582,8469%44%5/1/16/1/227585632%5/1/9/1/15261471%11%24%4/1/2/1/80607746%5%7%4%银行表6：【存量】部分银行同业存单余额、周度到期及净融资额(亿元)名Q1AQ3H存单到期存单净融资58955行28,1677,743-168银行126112,894-1865,8925,8929838,7338,642-103银行68,5609,10347,7077,62893134918,0157,64776,7427,027行88715,8786,1663,6043,587615963,3993,253042,9183,0002,5432,5522-17003,5103,3121236,0066,210行734,8665,1537814,7325,016杭州银行367210行-185银行48行8-127-10063-175行01行791747433332323206941410989018183银行末存量同业存单平均票存量同业存单平均票面利率2023Q12022A2022Q3H末存量同业存单剩余存量同业存单剩余期限2023Q12022A2022Q3H22246.60246.60195.62行9185.3518银行.82130.73192.57610191.78165.84172.47165.91170.55179.4875.96银行166.72125.49137.72172.28155.03191.51108.84121.29129.041178.24行131.84129.87169.25154.97132.33167.978139.93159.5987.96130.05134.98157.89166.73153.12146.43196.66176.98行77.53131.19170.924.23110.261120.57杭州银行114.66163.18153.89行114.95123.17176.44.89150.09156.62177.91181.73银行128.44120.92103.65141.85141.85125.61132.09行6161.49127.40127.40119.65141.8995.88126.90116.89134.95106.85120.95172.14183.50158.19行173.46171.68160.1793.60125.90125.03138.56188.30162.57行6137.1471.2589.47227.4571.10125.41.000230.0037.2037.2036.004.51177.03188.4525.225.28117.2854.03102.17d银行表8：【到期】同业存单未来到期情况(亿元)银行类型AA+以下起始日合计AAAA+AAAAA+市商市商商业银行1/7/2/7/21-1---1---1/7/5/7/58919351/7/8/7/88241/7/11/7/1136-1/7/14/7/14641/7/17/7/179409211/7/20/7/20837/6/19/7/277/7/3/7/9597/7/10/7/1684727/7/17/7/2397/7/24/7/306059/4/1/4/30617/5/1/5/31881/6/1/6/30611502/7/1/7/316/8/1/8/31736/9/1/9/308126/10/1/10/316285银行(二)商业银行债：本期355亿元商业银行债发行表9：商业银行债券发行情况(亿元)起始日结束日合计发行发行规模AA+以下AAAA合计合计发行发行笔数AA+以下AAAA11111/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26------------------------------4192023/6/2553125122023/6/1852353/6/52023/6/11-2-252023/5/292023/6/4-31252023/5/222023/5/285322023/6/12023/6/30492023/5/12023/5/3142023/4/12023/4/3022023/3/12023/3/3172023/2/12023/2/2856商业银行普通债信用利差(bp)商业银行普通债到期收益率(%)级/期限(AAA):7Y(AAA):10Y环比上期变化(1.130.41/6/3082482.953.03/6/2336992.942.943.02/6/163380/6/98902.923.02/6/26532.933.03级/期限YYYYYYYY(AA+):7Y(AA+):10Y环比上期变化(1.460.75/6/3033.073.14/6/2373.053.14/6/1683.023.12/6/973.033.13/6/2873.033.13银行表11：【到期】商业银行债券未来到期情况(亿元)况AA+以合计下AAAAAAA+银行类型商起始日市商到期规模(亿元)1111111/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20------ 25-------------------------------------------------7777/6/19/7/3/7/10/7/17/7/24/7/2/7/9/7/16/7/23/7/30 4- 10 25 2044----------- 10 25------------- 10 2544----/4/1/4/3053/5/1/5/31-0-0-/6/1/6/304----4/7/1/7/31----/8/1/8/3133/9/1/9/30--/10/1/10/31-----01111111/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20------ ---------------------1---------------------1-------7777/6/19/7/3/7/10/7/17/7/24/7/2/7/9/7/16/7/23/7/30 - 11---------1---11--------------11111----/4/1/4/302221391/5/1/5/315-32-32-/6/1/6/3022111----1/7/1/7/3133-12--3-/8/1/8/319911712322/9/1/9/3088-621-42/10/1/10/3133-3-1--1-831144银行未来30天到期1笔，到期规模15亿元。表12：二级资本工具发行情况(亿元)起始日结束日合计发行规模AAAA+以下AAAAAAA+合计合计发行发行笔数AA+以下AAAAAAA+11111/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26--------1---------------2-----1----------1-42023/6/192023/6/25--------52023/6/122023/6/18--1--152023/6/52023/6/1155--1--52023/5/292023/6/4--------52023/5/222023/5/28--1-1-2023/6/12023/6/3066-4-22023/5/12023/5/310-0-2-2-2023/4/12023/4/3092612023/3/12023