Kantar-解锁UAE-FMCG市场趋势和购物者暗示（英）

Unlocking

UAEFMCGMarketTrends

andShopper

InsightsFMCGMacro

Update

Q1,2023Worldpanel

Division,Kantar,

MENAJune

2023Macro-economic

ContextDespite

the

downgradeto

headline

GDPfrom

oil

output

cut,

non-oil

sectors,

including

FMCG,remains

strongly

positive,

witha

robust

capital

market

signaling

further

encouraging

signs

forthe

UAE

economyOPEC+'s

output

cut

to

weigh

on

oilGDP

but

non-oil

sector

is

vibrantInflation

in

Dubai

edged

down,however

rent

hikes

hits

the

walletsDeepening

capital

market

signalsgrowth

and

innovation.

UAEeconomy

isexpected

togrowth

at2.4%

in2023,

slowerthan

whatwaspreviouslyprojected..

Inflation

inDubai

droppedin

Q1toaverage.

Despite

global

marketuncertainty,

aflow

ofIPOsontoemirates'

local

bourses,

likelytomaintain

relativelystrong

performance

of

localequity

markets.4.6%,

downfrom

6.2%

in

Q32022..

However,inflation

inDubai

and

UAEas

awholeeased

at

aslower

ratethan

seen

inother

partsof

theworld,such

asthe

USand

theeurozone..

Expanding

non-oil

sector

leads

toimprovementinPMIat55.9

inMar.UAE

Equity

PricesReal

GDP

Growth:.

Inflation

has

slowed

atamore

gradual

pace

intheUAEinpartbecause

it

peaked

at

alowerrateas

theauthorities

smoothed

theadjustmentinfood

and

energy

prices..

However,strongeconomic

growth

and

an

influxof

expats

tothe

UAEcausing

rents

torise.Source:Oxford

Economics

Country

Economic

Forecast

report,

April20232Key

FMCG

TrendsIn

spite

of

pricing

pressures

that

widen

the

volume-value

gap,

the

strong

rise

in

Ramadandriven

volume

in

2023

wasa

positive

development

for

brands

and

retailersUAE

FMCG

Monthly

KPIs

|

Indexed

to

the

average

of

FY

2020VolumesSpends11412011010090COVID19RussiaUkraineWar

Starts110101108105104931021019810094101901079787989687888070Ramadan2020

(April&May)Vaccinationstarts

but

casescontinueMany

officesresumeBacktoschoolRamadan2022SummerVacationsRamadan2023BacktoschoolRamadan2021CovidimpactbeginsSummerSummerVacationsBacktoschoolVacations

Gradual

opening

upSource:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENA.Basisthe

87FMCGcategories

we

currentlytrackintheUAE*Inorder

toseethetrends

/crests

and

throughs

interms

of

volumes

foroverall

FMCGwe

have

removedthe

contribution

from

BottledWater

whichisabout

55%

oftheoverall

volumesand

does

not

fluctuatemuch

over

time3Fluctuations

in

FMCG

consumer

behavior

are

driven

by

seasonal

factors

and

amplified

bybasket

price

hikes,

necessitating

adaptive

marketingstrategiesBasis

the

87

FMCG

categories

we

currently

track

in

the

UAESpendsFrequencySpend/TripCOVID19RussiaUkraineWar

Starts12512711013012011010090121114121120119117117116103114104114111981051041041011021009780103869292821009087888089868086928070Ramadan2020

(April&May)BacktoschoolVaccinationstarts

but

casesRamadan2022SummerVacationsRamadan2023BacktoschoolcontinueRamadan2021Many

officesresumeGradual

opening

upCovidimpactbeginsSummerVacationsBacktoschoolSummerVacationsSource:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENABasis

the

87

FMCGcategories

we

currentlytrackintheUAE4As

inflation

reaches

a

plateau,

there

is

a

softening

of

the

spending

growth

rate.

Overall

growthalso

driven

by

increased

populationIntheshort

term,theprimary

countermeasure

shoppers

used

isreduction

of

frequencyQuarter

FMCG

|

Performance

DriversSpend000’sSRPenetrationFrequencyVolumeperTrip

KG/

Ltr.Total

HH000’sAveragePriceSR/KG/Ltr.Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENA*Inorder

toseethe

trends

/crests

foroverall

FMCGwe

have

removedthe

contributionfromBottledWater

allKPIs5Inflation

TrendMonitoring

pricing

trends

across

differentproduct

categories

is

crucial

for

creating

brand-specific

strategies

as

inflation

growth

shows

some

signs

of

restraint

in

most

segments,

exceptfor

beveragesFMCG

quarterly

price

change

versusSPLY

(%chg)Q2'22Q3'22Q4'22Q1'2312.4%11.9%DrivenbyCoffee,

RTDJuices10.6%10.5%10.2%Drivenby

SkinCare

and

BarSoap8.9%7.9%7.4%7.9%7.4%7.2%6.3%5.9%5.7%5.0%5.1%5.2%3.7%3.4%2.8%2.7%2.8%2.3%1.6%AllFMCGFoodBeveragesDairyPersonalCareHomeCareSource:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENA.Quarterly

change

vs.same

period

lastyearInorder

toseethe

trends

/crests

foroverall

FMCGwe

have

removedthe

contributionfromBottledWater6Segment

Deep

DiveThis

quarter,

the

relatively

lower

price

increase

correlated

witha

slight

increase

in

volume,as

individual

buyers

rationalized

their

purchases

to

a

lesser

extentQuarterly

%

changeMar'23

vs.

SPLYValueAvg

PriceVolumeVo

l

/

BuyerFMCGFood6.31.33.9-2.9-0.35.03.47.5Highest

rise

inCoffee,

RTDJuicesBeverageDairy8.3-2.0-6.310.68.10.2-4.27.9Highest

rise

inGhee,

Evap.milk,

Butter/Margarine,LabnehPersonal

CareHomeCare-2.8-5.0-7.42.37.92.0-1.85.7Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENA.Dec

Q1'23

vs

SPLY&

DecQ1'23

vsSPLYInorder

toseethe

trends

/crests

foroverall

FMCGwe

have

removedthe

contributionfromBottledWater7Recent

trends

also

indicate

larger

pack

purchases

for

Food,

Beverages,

and

Personal

Care,necessitating

a

fresh

look

at

portfolio

managementBrands

need

to

be

morecompetitive

as

penetration

gains

inmost

segmentsdecreasedSegments

Performance

|

QE/Q1'23

indexed

vs

SPLY>103Penetrationgain

inno.

ofcategories<97Spend/buyerSpend/tripPrice/volumeVolume/buyerBasketsizePacksize/buyerPacks/tripFrequencyTotal

FMCGFood1021031041039510510410910510110310510311110810210697100949799100101981041071051001039989887477BeverageDairy95831001253396989810075Personal

CareHome

Care939499104981019710045Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENA.Inorder

toseethetrends

/crests

and

troughs

foroverallFMCGwe

have

removedthecontributionfromBottledWater

which

is

about

55%

of

theoverall

volumesand

does

not

fluctuatemuch

over

time8Channel

PerformanceA

shift

in

shopper

behavior

towardsexploring

alternative

shopping

options

like

hypermarketspresents

both

challenges

and

opportunities

for

brandsQ4

Spend

Contribution

(%)Opportunitiesfor

Brands17.914.510.811.85.2.

Increasedexposure

toawiderrange

ofcustomers

through

hypermarkets,leading

topotential

for

increased

salesand

market

share.25201510519.920.720.1Pen

growth

observedinallFMCG16.816.4.

Ability

tonegotiate

better

partnershipdeals

with

hypermarkets

due

tolargervolume

purchases.segments14.811.611

10.99.48.6

8.6Challengesfor

Brands6.96.45.6.

Increasedcompetition

inhypermarketsmakes

differentiation

challenging.0.

Need

toadjust

marketing

and

productsfor

hypermarket

shoppers'

preferencesand

behavior.CarrefourLuluKNHypermarketsQ1'21

Q1'22

Q1'23<=-3%

growth

>=3%

growthKNSupermarketsKNCo-operatives=Q1'23

Volumecontribution%Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENA9Online

ShoppingWhile

the

depth

of

online

shopping

is

increasing

in

UAE,

its

penetration

rate

amonghouseholds

appears

to

be

reaching

a

plateau

before

potentially

taking

off

againTotal

FMCG

|

Rolling

M

AT

Periods

|E-commerce

Penetration

%Total

FMCG

|

Rolling

MAT

Periods

|

OnlineVolume/Value

Proportion

vs.

Offline

%PenetrationVolumeShareValueShare6.15.845.544.75.45.34.24.040.0MAR'21MAR'22MAR'23Mar'21Mar'22Mar'23Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENABase:Excluding

bottled

water10Convenience

leading

to

consistent

growth

of

online

shopping

depth

in

the

UAEThe

sizeof

online

packpurchases

isgradually

decreasing

toalign

with

thesizeof

offline

purchasesUAE

FMCG

|

M

AT

Mar'23

|

Online

Shopping

IndexedAgainst

StoreInteresting

facts.

The

penetration

ranking

of

categoriesremains

consistent

betweenonline

andoffline

purchases

suggesting

thatpeople'sbuyingdecisions

are

primarilybasedontheir

needs,

which

are

similarregardless

of

the

channelsthey

choose.Mar'21Mar'22Mar'23156153.

However,

approximately67%of

categories(from

all

5segments)

showhigher

averagepricespaidonline

compared

to

offline.135113109105104106103.

Onlyaround

11%

of

the

top600brandsdon’tsellonline

all

the

rest

are

alreadythere,

albeit

with

varyinglevels

of

onlineperformance..

Half

of

these

brands

are

selling

at

apremium

online

than

offline

(PI>103).

Butthe

other

halfareselling

cheaper

thanoffline

(PI<97)

indicating

opportunitiesfor

both

premiumizationanddiscountingexistsinonline

platform.13.011.39.37.8

7.98.9FrequencyNo.ofpacksPackSizeVol/tripAveragePriceSource:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENABase:Excluding

bottled

water11Expat

Arabs

remain

at

the

forefrontof

online

shopping.

Increased

participation

from

othernationalities,

especially

those

in

higher

SEC

groups,

woulddrive

further

adoption

of

thechannelOnline

Shopping

Contribution

within

SegmentsMAT

Mar'23|Online

Shopping

Volume

/

Value

vs.Offline

%5.8

6.1AllUAE33.59.9

11.2

4.8

4.55.4

5.28.8

9.3Others4.6

4.9SECAB6.7

7.2SECC15.1

5.3SECC2/DEmiratiExpatArabs

SouthAsian

SouthEastAsiansVolume%Value%Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,

MENABase:Excluding

bottled

water12Key

Observations&ConclusionsOverall,

the

UAE

FMCG

market

remains

positive

as

it

enters

a

post-pandemic

world

with

a

shiftin

consumer

behavior,

adaptation

to

hypermarkets,

and

potential

for

growth

in

onlineshopping.

However,

brands

and

retailersmust

remain

flexible

and

keep

a

close

eye

on

themarket

trends

to

adjust

their

strategies

accordinglyMacroeconomy

&

FMCGPerformanceSegment

Health

&

ShopperBehaviorTrade

Performance

&E-commerce

Non-oil

sectors,

including

FMCG,remain

positivedespite

aslowdown

inthe

UAE'smacroeconomy.

Monitoring

pricing

trends

across

differentproduct

categories

is

crucial

f