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1
AsofAugust8
AbsoluteRelative*
No.ofideas
CumulativeOutperformance(bps)
Avgholdingperiodtotalreturn
Avg12Mtotalreturn**
No.ofpositivereturns
Hitratio
3.0%-6.0%
569
57%
1086
6,585
1.8%
-0.9%
994
550
55%
Source:MorganStanleyResearch,DataStreamRefinitiv,Bloomberg.PerformancedataasatAug8,2023.Cumulativeoutperformance:againstlocalbenchmarks.Holdingperiodtotalreturnmeasuresperformancewhenideawaseffective.**Avg12MtotalreturnmeasuresperformanceofeachideafromAug8,2022,toAug8,2023,anddoesnotadjustforbuy/selldirection.*Relativeperformance=ideaoutperformanceagainstlocalbenchmarks.Hitratio=numberofideaswithpositivereturnsaspercentageofthetotalnumberofideas.Performancecalculationdoesnotconsidertransactioncostsorothercosts.Figuresarenotaudited.Pastperformanceisnotaguaranteeoffutureresults.
August13,202310:00PMGMT
ThreeinThree|AsiaPacific
ThreeActionableIdeas
T–OW|PBFintech–OW|37InteractiveEntertainment–OW
OW–T(TCOM.O):ExpectsteepestupwardEPSrevisionYTDdrivenbysummerholidays,progressivesharegains,highermixofoutboundtravelandlimitedmacrorisks.
OW–PBFintech(PBFI.NS):Strongfranchise,largeTAMandanelegantbusinessmodeldrivingrevenue;expectgradualbuthealthyupside.
OW–37InteractiveEntertainment(002555.SZ):Expectrevenueandnetprofitinflectionduetorichgamepipeline;potentialre-ratingspurredbypositivethemesaroundAI.
Linkstoreports:
TGroupLtd:SummerRevengeTravel(7Aug2023)
PBFintech:RaisingestimatesandPTafterastrongcore1QF24–OW(10Aug2023)
ChinaOnlineGaming:2Q23Preview:ShiftFocustoFundamentals(8Aug2023)
Exhibit1:Performancesummary
MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+
SamuelLee,CFA
EQUITYSTRATEGIST
+8522239-1862
+8522239-7831
+8522848-6595
Samuel.Sw.Lee@
BrianKelleher
EQUITYSTRATEGIST
Brian.Kelleher@
HozefaTopiwalla
EQUITYSTRATEGIST
Hozefa.Topiwalla@
LatestclosingpricesasofAugust11,2023:
T(TCOM.O):US$40.52;PBFintech
(PBFI.NS):Rs727.45;37InteractiveEntertainment
(002555.SZ):Rmb26.19.
MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith
companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asa
result,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhavea
conflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityof
MorganStanleyResearch.Investorsshouldconsider
MorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmaking
theirinvestmentdecision.
Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,
refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis
report.
+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenot
registeredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsof
thememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictions
oncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,public
appearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearch
analystaccount.
2
ThreeActionableIdeas
Exhibit2:Cumulativeoutperformance
'ThreeinThree'CumulativeOutperformance
185.0
175.0
165.0
155.0
145.0
135.0
125.0
115.0
105.0
95.0A-16A-16D-16A-17A-17D-17A-18A-18D-18A-19A-19D-19A-20A-20D-20A-21A-21D-21A-22A-22D-22A-23
Source:MorganStanleyResearch,Datastream,Refinitiv,Bloomberg.Theperformancecalculationdoesnotconsidertransactioncostsorothercosts.Thesefiguresarenotaudited.Pastperformanceisnotaguaranteeoffutureresults.
Exhibit3:Weeklyhitratio
100%'ThreeinThree'WeeklyHitRatio
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%10%
0%
M-16S-16J-17M-17S-17J-18M-18S-18J-19M-19S-19J-20M-20S-20J-21M-21S-21J-22M-22S-22J-23M-23
Source:MorganStanleyResearch,Datastream,Refinitiv,Bloomberg.Theperformancecalculationdoesnotconsidertransactioncostsorothercosts.Thesefiguresarenotaudited.Pastperformanceisnotaguaranteeoffutureresults.ThehitratioasofanyparticularTuesdaydoesnotaccountforideasstartedonthesamedayforwhichholdingperiodwas0days.
ThreeActionableIdeasarenotandshouldnotbeconsideredaportfolio.Eachinvestmentideaischosenbasedonitsownmeritandwithoutanyconsiderationoftheotherinvestmentideaschosen.Specifically,therehasbeennoefforttomitigatetherisksofinvestinginanycollectivegroupof"ThreeActionableIdeas".Conceptsimportanttoabalancedportfolio,suchasnegativecorrelationanddiversification,havenotbeenconsidered.Treating"ThreeActionableIdeas"ideasasaportfoliowillsubjectyoutotheriskoflosingallorasubstantialportionofyourinvestments.
Theinformationcontainedhereinhasbeenpreparedsolelyforinformationalpurposesandisnotasolicitationofanyoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorotherfinancialinstrumentortoparticipateinanytradingstrategy.Productsandtradesofthistypemaynotbeappropriateforeveryinvestor.Pleaseconsultwithyourlegalandtaxadvisorsbeforemakinganyinvestmentdecision.PleasecontactyourMorganStanleysalesrepresentativeformoredetails.
3
Exhibit4:ThreeActionableIdeas–Stillineffect
No.
Ticker
Direction
StockRating*
Start
End
Idea
Lastpx**
BenchmarkIndex
Absperf
Relperf
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
005490.KS
GRAB.O
2308.TW
ICBK.NS
6723.T
MQG.AX
2330.TW
NTES.O
SCIL.SI
RELI.NS
600276.SS
601138.SS
HDBK.NS
3661.TW
1801.T
1347.HK
2899.HK
INGL.NS
BIDU.O
036570.KS
9962.T
4183.T
8750.T
8830.T
300750.SZ
JD.O
3690.HK
4452.T
000660.KS
600519.SS
CBA.AX
300316.SZ
ZOMT.NS
323410.KS
2382.TW
3659.T
3088.T
601816.SS
XRO.AX
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
UW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
UW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
UW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
8-Aug-238-Aug-238-Aug-23 1-Aug-23 1-Aug-23 1-Aug-2325-Jul-2325-Jul-2325-Jul-23 18-Jul-23 18-Jul-23 18-Jul-23 11-Jul-23 11-Jul-23 11-Jul-23 4-Jul-23 4-Jul-23 4-Jul-2327-Jun-2327-Jun-2327-Jun-2320-Jun-2320-Jun-2320-Jun-2313-Jun-2313-Jun-2313-Jun-23 6-Jun-23 6-Jun-23 6-Jun-2330-May-2330-May-2330-May-2323-May-2323-May-2323-May-2316-May-2316-May-2316-May-23
7-Nov-237-Nov-237-Nov-2331-Oct-2331-Oct-2331-Oct-2324-Oct-2324-Oct-2324-Oct-2317-Oct-2317-Oct-2317-Oct-2310-Oct-2310-Oct-2310-Oct-23 3-Oct-23 3-Oct-23 3-Oct-2326-Sep-2326-Sep-2326-Sep-2319-Sep-2319-Sep-2319-Sep-2312-Sep-2312-Sep-2312-Sep-235-Sep-235-Sep-235-Sep-2329-Aug-2329-Aug-2329-Aug-2322-Aug-2322-Aug-2322-Aug-2315-Aug-2315-Aug-2315-Aug-23
POSCO
GrabHoldingsLtd
DeltaElectronicsInc.
ICICIBank
RenesasElectronics
MacquarieGroupLimited
TSMC
NetEase,Inc
SembCorpIndustriesLtd
RelianceIndustries
JiangsuHengrui
FoxconnIndustrialInternetCo.Ltd.
HDFCBank
AlchipTechnologiesLtd
Taisei
HuaHongSemiconductorLtd
ZijinMiningGroup
InterGlobeAviation
BaiduInc
NCSOFTCorp
MisumiGroup
MitsuiChemicals
Dai-ichiLifeHoldings
SumitomoRealty&Dev.
ContemporaryAmperexTechnologyCo.Ltd.JD.com,Inc.
Meituan
Kao
SKhynix
KweichowMoutaiCompanyLtd.
CommonwealthBkAust
JingshengMechanical&ElectricalCo
ZomatoLtd
KakaoBankCorp
QuantaComputerInc.
Nexon
MatsukiyoCocokara&Co.
Beijing-ShanghaiHigh-SpeedRailway
XeroLtd
597000 3.64 360.5 979.92463.5 175.4 552106.95 5.942508.65 40.14 24.181649.9 2145 4836 23.5 12.922560.1143.92278500 2475 3905 2717 3733247.14 38.05 140.1 5726118600 1890102.21 60.53 93.45 28300 240 2495 8149 5.37121.09
KoreaSeComposite(Kospi)StraitsTimesIndexL
TaiwanSeWeighedTaiexS&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveTopix
S&P/AsxAllAustralian200TaiwanSeWeighedTaiexHangSengChinaEnterprisesStraitsTimesIndexL
S&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveShanghaiSeCompositeShanghaiSeComposite
S&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveTaiwanSeWeighedTaiexTopix
HangSengChinaEnterprisesHangSengChinaEnterprisesS&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveHangSengChinaEnterprisesKoreaSeComposite(Kospi)Topix
Topix
Topix
Topix
ShanghaiSeCompositeHangSengChinaEnterprisesHangSengChinaEnterprisesTopix
KoreaSeComposite(Kospi)ShanghaiSeComposite
S&P/AsxAllAustralian200
ShanghaiSeComposite
S&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveKoreaSeComposite(Kospi)TaiwanSeWeighedTaiexTopix
Topix
ShanghaiSeComposite
S&P/AsxAllAustralian200
0
0
0
-1
-10
-1
-3
0
5
-2
-15
-2
0
16
-5
-13
7
-1
0
-7
-13
-1
4
2
-16
0
9
14
9
15
-3
-13
39
8
124
-18
9
-2
31
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0%0%0%5%2%1%0%7%2%0%0%9%1%6%3%4%8%3%0%0%1%5%0%3%0%2%5%7%4%1%1%1%8%0%3%7%5%5%1%
0
0
0
-0
-8
0
-1
0
3
-0
-17
-5
-0
16
-7
-14
6
-2
-3
-6
-14
-1
3
1
-13
-1
7
12
11
11
-1
-16
34
7
117
-24
1
-3
29
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0%0%0%6%2%7%4%9%6%8%2%2%4%1%8%7%6%0%0%7%9%9%6%8%2%5%8%1%0%0%3%4%7%7%2%9%6%9%6%
Source:MorganStanleyResearch,Datastream,Refinitiv,Bloomberg.
Note:PerformancedataasatlastpricedateAug8,2023.*StockratingsrefertothatwhentheideawasintroducedunlessthecoverageisdroppedorratingisremovedfromconsiderationbecauseunderMorganStanleypolicyand/orapplicableregulations.NC-CurrentlynotcoveredbyMorganStanleyResearch.12MperformancereferstoaveragetotalreturnoftheideasfromAug8,2022toAug8,2023,anddoesnotadjustforbuy/selldirection.Thesefiguresarenotaudited.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Resultsshownexcludebrokeragecommissionsandtransactioncosts.CertainhistoricalThreeActionableIdeashavebeenremovedbecauseunderMorganStanleypolicyand/orapplicableregulations,MorganStanleymaybeprecludedfromissuingsuchinformationwithrespecttothiscompanyatthistime.PleasenotethatallimportantdisclosuresincludingpersonalholdingdisclosuresandMorganStanleydisclosuresforstocksundercoverageappearontheMorganStanleypublicwebsiteat/researchdisclosures.Fornon-covered(NC)stockspleaserefertoImportantUSRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesandOtherImportantDisclosureslocatedatthebackofthisreport.Pleaserefertothissectionformoredetails.
4
Exhibit5:ThreeActionableIdeas–closedinlast13weeks
No.
Ticker
Direction
StockRating*
Start
End
Idea
Lastpx**
BenchmarkIndex
Absperf
Relperf
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
0992.HK
UNTR.JK
1193.HK
IHTL.NS
4519.T
0268.HK
2454.TW
3690.HK
NTES.O
ONGC.NS
PLS.AX
2330.TW
7733.T
271560.KS
000725.SZ
0823.HK
RIO.AX
002459.SZ
600570.SS
ICBK.NS
6702.T
002027.SZ
LTIM.NS
035420.KS
096770.KS
1109.HK
TCOM.O
MQG.AX
WTC.AX
PDD.O
ZTO.N
6752.T
2282.HK
CBA.AX
0857.HK
PBFI.NS
1099.HK
OCBC.SI
002142.SZ
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
UW
OW
OW
OW
UW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
UW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
UW
OW
OW
OW
OW
OW
9-May-239-May-239-May-232-May-232-May-232-May-2325-Apr-2325-Apr-2325-Apr-2318-Apr-2318-Apr-2318-Apr-2311-Apr-2311-Apr-2311-Apr-23 4-Apr-23 4-Apr-2328-Mar-2328-Mar-2328-Mar-23 4-Apr-2321-Mar-2321-Mar-2321-Mar-2314-Mar-2314-Mar-2314-Mar-237-Mar-237-Mar-237-Mar-2328-Feb-2328-Feb-2328-Feb-2321-Feb-2321-Feb-2321-Feb-2314-Feb-2314-Feb-2314-Feb-23
8-Aug-238-Aug-238-Aug-23 1-Aug-23 1-Aug-23 1-Aug-2325-Jul-2325-Jul-2325-Jul-23 18-Jul-23 18-Jul-23 18-Jul-23 11-Jul-23 11-Jul-23 11-Jul-23 4-Jul-23 4-Jul-2327-Jun-2327-Jun-2327-Jun-2320-Jun-2320-Jun-2320-Jun-2320-Jun-2313-Jun-2313-Jun-2313-Jun-23 6-Jun-23 6-Jun-23 6-Jun-2330-May-2330-May-2330-May-2323-May-2323-May-2323-May-2316-May-2316-May-2316-May-23
Lenovo
UnitedTractorsTbkPT
ChinaResourcesGasGroupLtd
IndianHotelsCompanyLtd
ChugaiPharmaceutical
KingdeeInternationalSoftwareGroup
MediaTek
Meituan
NetEase,Inc
Oil&NaturalGasCorp.
PilbaraMineralsLtd
TSMC
Olympus
OrionCorp
BOETechnology
LinkREIT
RioTintoLimited
JASolarTechnologyCoLtd
HundsunTechnologiesInc.
ICICIBank
Fujitsu
FocusMediaInformationTechnology
LTIMindtreeLimited
NaverCorp
SKInnovationCoLtd
ChinaResourcesLandLtd.
TGroupLtd
MacquarieGroupLimited
WiseTechGlobalLimited
PDDHoldingsInc
ZTOExpress
PanasonicHoldings
MGMChinaHoldingsLimited
CommonwealthBkAust
PetroChina
PBFintechLimited
SinopharmGroup
Oversea-ChineseBankingCorp
BankofNingboCo.Ltd
8.51 27525 25.8388.65 4182 13.44 690 140.1106.95173.35 5.32 5522306.5117800 4.11 41.8113.46 30.77 40.85 979.9 18485 7.525082.55223000191300 33.9 39.94 175.4 87.69 83.72 26.6 1644 10.6102.21 5.73760.15 21.45 13.1627.9
HangSengChinaEnterprisesIdxComposite
HangSengChinaEnterprisesS&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveTopix
HangSengChinaEnterprisesTaiwanSeWeighedTaiexHangSengChinaEnterprisesHangSengChinaEnterprisesS&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveS&P/AsxAllAustralian200TaiwanSeWeighedTaiexTopix
KoreaSeComposite(Kospi)ShanghaiSeCompositeHangSeng
S&P/AsxAllAustralian200
ShanghaiSeComposite
ShanghaiSeComposite
S&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveTopix
ShanghaiSeComposite
S&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveKoreaSeComposite(Kospi)KoreaSeComposite(Kospi)HangSengChinaEnterprisesHangSengChinaEnterprisesS&P/AsxAllAustralian200S&P/AsxAllAustralian200HangSengChinaEnterprisesHangSengChinaEnterprisesTopix
HangSeng
S&P/AsxAllAustralian200HangSengChinaEnterprisesS&PBse(Sensex)30SensitiveHangSengChinaEnterprisesStraitsTimesIndexLShanghaiSeComposite
12
8
-6
14
21
13
-13
2
26
4
-30
13
-11
-8
-2
-10
-1
5
-8
9
1
11
7
1
17
0
-4
-10
20
-22
6
25
-13
0
28
24
23
-2
-12
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
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.
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.
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.
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.
.
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.
2%9%9%4%8%2%6%4%2%2%8%3%6%6%3%1%8%4%2%5%3%3%4%0%4%8%3%4%2%3%1%7%7%0%9%4%6%4%4%
11
7
-7
5
9
7
1
-0
23
-8
-31
2
-24
-9
-0
-7
-3
6
-7
-1
-11
11
-2
10
5
-2
-7
-8
22
-16
10
16
-8
0
33
21
28
-1
-12
.
.
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.
6%6%5%3%0%7%0%4%4%3%1%3%1%2%8%2%1%4%2%2%7%1%2%1%1%8%9%4%2%2%5%1%6%6%4%9%1%3%4%
Source:MorganStanleyResearch,Datastream,Refinitiv,Bloomberg.
Note:PerformancedataasatlastpricedateAug8,2023.*StockratingsrefertothatwhentheideawasintroducedunlessthecoverageisdroppedorratingisremovedfromconsiderationbecauseunderMorganStanleypolicyand/orapplicableregulations.NC-CurrentlynotcoveredbyMorganStanleyResearch.12MperformancereferstoaveragetotalreturnoftheideasfromAug8,2022toAug8,2023,anddoesnotadjustforbuy/selldirection.Thesefiguresarenotaudited.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Resultsshownexcludebrokeragecommissionsandtransactioncosts.CertainhistoricalThreeActionableIdeashavebeenremovedbecauseunderMorganStanleypolicyand/orapplicableregulations,MorganStanleymaybeprecludedfromissuingsuchinformationwithrespecttothiscompanyatthistime.++=StockRating,PriceTargetorEstimatesarenotavailableorhavebeenremovedduetoapplicablelawand/orMorganStanleypolicy.PleasenotethatallimportantdisclosuresincludingpersonalholdingdisclosuresandMorganStanleydisclosuresforstocksundercoverageappearontheMorganStanleypublicwebsiteat/researchdisclosures.Fornon-covered(NC)stockspleaserefertoImportantUSRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesandOtherImportantDisclosureslocatedatthebackofthisreport.
5
Ideas,bymarket
HongKongandChinaaccountedforthemostideasintheregion,followedby
Japan.
Taiwangeneratedthebestholdingperiodrelativereturnonaverageat3.8%,while
Japanhadtheworstaverageholdingperiodrelativereturnat0.5%
57%ofideaswerecontributedbyASEANgeneratingpositiverelativereturns.Korea
hadthelowesthitratioat47%.
Exhibit6:Numberofideas,bymarket
No.
of"ThreeinThree"Ideasbycountry
450
394
400
350
300
250
193
200
134
150
116
96
79
75
100
50
0
Australia
India
Korea
Taiwan
Japan
ASEAN
HK/China
Source:MorganStanleyResearch.
Exhibit7:Ideaperformance,bymarket
No.ofideas
AvgholdprdreturnAbsoluteRelative
No.+veoutperf
Hitratio
12MreturnAbsoluteRelative
Australia
HK/China
India
Korea
Taiwan
ASEAN
Japan
96
394
134
116
79
75
193
2.6%
2.3%4.3%2.7%5.0%4.8%23%
1.9%
1.9%1.4%1.4%3.8%3.4%05%
49
200
70
54
43
42
93
51%
51%52%47%55%57%48%
2.6%
-20.9%7.6%-8.3%-2.2%4.8%64%
0.4%
-4.0%1.9%-1.4%-0.1%2.6%16%
Source:MorganStanleyResearch,Datastream,Refinitiv,Bloomberg.PerformancedataasofAug8,2023.12MperformancereferstoaveragetotalreturnoftheideasfromAug8,2022toAug8,2023,anddoesnotadjustforbuy/selldirection.Thesefiguresarenotaudited.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Resultsshownexcludebrokeragecommissionsandtransactioncosts.
Notes
PleasecontactSamuelLee(samuel.sw.lee@)forthefulllistofThreeinthreeideasandtheirperformance.
6
FAQon"Threeinthree"
1.Whatis"Threeinthree"?
"Threeinthree"isaweeklyreportispublishedeveryMonday,highlightingthethreemostactionable,high-convictioncallsfromAsianresearch(includingJapan)inthepreviousweek.
2.Whyisitrelevant?
The"Threeinthree"frameworkaimstopinpointhigh-convictionresearchideastoidentifyactionableopportunitiesforinvestorstocapturealpha.
3.Howrobustaretheselectionprocessandcriteria?
TheideasareselectedbytheResearchProductteamaftercanvassingfeedbackfromthebroader"Threeinthree"group,whichincludesmembersoftheEquitySales,CrossProduct,andContentteams.
4.Howisanalystconvictiontested?
MembersoftheResearchProductteamhavebeencloselyinvolvedwiththecreationoftheselectedreports,givingthemadditionalinsightontheanalysts’thoughtprocess.Toshowconviction,analystsmustexplainhowtheircallisdifferentiatedandidentifyimmediatecatalystsinawell-researchedreport.
5.Whyisitdoneonaweeklybasis?
Byselectingthreekeyideastobepublishedandfeaturedinanemaileachweek,investorswillknowwhenandwheretofindaregularupdateonsomeofourstrongestideas.
6.Howisinvestorfeedbackincorporatedintheselectionprocess?
Our"Threeinthree"teamincludesrelevantEquitySalesandCrossProductteammemberswhoareconstantlyinteractingwithregionalandglobalinvestorstogleanimportantfeedbackonhowthevariousinvestmentideasarebeingperceivedinthemarket.ThefinaldecisiononwhichideastoincludeismadebytheResearchProductteam.
7.Whatarethemeasurementcriteriaandprocess,andhowcanItrackthem?
Performanceisbasedontotalreturninlocalcurrency.Thecut-offdayforweeklyperformanceisTuesday.
Foreachthematicidearepresentedbyaninvestablebasket,weselecttwostocksfromtheinvestablebasketthatarethe
7
mostliquidandwiththelargestmarketcaps,assigninganequalweightingtoeachstock,i.e.,eachofthetwostocksinsideathematicideacarrieshalftheweightofasinglestock"Threeinthree"idea.
Eachideaisonarelativebasis,withthelocalbenchmarkbeingthemajorstockexchangeindexaccordingtothecountryof
mainoperation.
Eachideaiseffectivefor13weeks.Afteranideahasbeenintroduced,ifourstockanalystchangesratingwithinthe13weeks,
theideaisassumedtobeclosedonthenextTuesday.
Outperformanceisdeterminedbystockperformanceoverlocalbenchmarkperformance,adjustingfordirection(i.e.,buyfor
Overweight-ratedstocks,sellforUnderweight-ratedstocks).
TheCumulativeOutperformancetrackerhasanassumedstartingpointof100onApril26,2016.Averageweekly
outperformanceiscalculatedforallideas.Trackerlevelgrows(/declines)byaverageweeklyout(/under)performanceeveryweek.
Separately,outperformancefortheperiodfromthestartdatetoeveryTuesday(orideaclosedate,whicheverisearlier)for
eachideaiscalculated.Thehitratioisdefinedasnumberofideaswithpositivereturnsasapercentageofthetotalnumberofideas.Wetrackthehitratioonaweeklybasis.
Inbothmetrics,costssuchasbrokeragecommissions,transactioncosts,tradingcosts,etc.,arenotconsidered.
8.HowIcanaccesstheseideas?
Youcansubscribeto"Threeinthree"report,whichispublishedinthemorningeveryMonday.
9.WhatisthedifferencebetweenInsightreportsandactionableideas?
Insightshaveamedium-terminvestmenthorizon(12-18months)andbreaknewgroundonkeyinvestmentthemesand
debates.Theyofferdeep,proprietaryanalysisonmacroandstockissues.
Actionableideasareeffectiveforaroundthreemonthsbydefault,backedbyin-depthreports(butnotlimitedtoInsight
reports).
Thebackboneissimilar,andInsightreportscouldbeincludedintheactionableideas.
8
DisclosureSection
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Forimportantdisclosures,stockpricechartsandequityratinghistoriesregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,pleaseseetheMorganStanleyResearchDisclosureWebsiteat
/researchdisclosures,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY,10036USA.
Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanyrecommendation,ratingorpricetargetreferencedinthisresearchreport,pleasecontacttheClientSupportTeamasfollows:US/Canada+1800303-2495;HongKong+8522848-5999;LatinAmerica+1718754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore+656834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.Alternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeor
MorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.
AnalystCertification
Thefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:BrianKelleher;SamuelLee,CFA;HozefaTopiwalla.
lobalResearchConflictManagementPolicy
MorganStanleyResearchhasbeenpublishedinaccordancewithourconflictmanagementpolicy,whichisavailableat/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.APortugueseversionofthepolicycanbefoundat.br
ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompanies
TheequityresearchanalystsorstrategistsprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationofMorganStanleyResearchhavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandoverallinvestmentbankingrevenues.EquityResearchanalysts'orstrategists'compensationisnotlinkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapitalmarketstransactionsperformedbyMorganStanleyortheprofitabilityorrevenuesofparticulartradingdesks.
MorganStanleyanditsafiliatesdobusinessthatrelatestocompanies/instrumentscoveredinMorganSta
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