IRENA-中美洲的企业能力：可变可再生能源的定义和含义（英）-2023.8

FIRMCAPACITYIN

CENTRALAMERICA

DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFOR

VARIABLERENEWABLEENERGY

©IRENA2023

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.

CITATION

IRENA(2023),FirmcapacityinCentralAmerica:Definitionsandimplicationsforvariablerenewableenergy,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

ISBN:978-92-9260-540-7

ABOUTIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfutureandservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

ABOUTTHECLEANENERGYCORRIDOROFCENTRALAMERICA(CECCA)

IRENAdevelopedtheCleanEnergyCorridorofCentralAmerica(CECCA)initiativein2015tosupporttheaccelerateddeploymentofrenewablesattheregionallevelinCentralAmericaand,inthecontextoftheCentralAmericanElectricInterconnectionSystem(SIEPAC)lineinterconnectingCostaRica,ElSalvador,Guatemala,Honduras,NicaraguaandPanama,promotethecross-bordertradeofelectricitycomingfromcleanenergysources.CECCAwasbuiltaroundkeypillarsofimplementation:powersystemoperationsandregulatoryframeworksforincreasingvariablerenewableenergyshares;countryandregionalpowersystemplanningwithrenewables;zoningandrenewableresourceassessment;andcapacity-buildingandinformationdissemination.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ThisreportwasdevelopedundertheguidanceofGurbuzGonul(Director,CountryEngagementandPartnerships,IRENA)andBinuParthan(DeputyDirector,CountryEngagementandPartnerships,IRENA).ThedocumentwasauthoredbyJoséTorón,CamiloRamírez(IRENA),GastónLestardandColineChampetier(GME),EdnaSotoandFabianBarrera(ex-IRENA).

ValuableinputandcommentswereofferedbyIRENAexperts,EmanueleBianco,SimonBenmarraze,PaulKomor,PaulaNardone,MohamedNababa,KamranSiddiquiandJoongYeopLee;additionalinsightswereprovidedbyAlexandraArias(SICA),AdonayUrrutia(DGEHM)andDr.MeenuMishra.

ThereportbenefitedfromtheparticipationandcontributionofrepresentativesfromnationalInstitutionsacrossLatinAmericacountries,aswellasotherstakeholdersfromtheregion:MinistryofPublicUtilities,Energy,LogisticsandE-GovernanceandBEL(Belize),MINAEandICE(CostaRica),CEL,CNE,SIGETandUT(ElSalvador),MEM,CNEEandAGER(Guatemala),CREE,ODSandSEN(Honduras),CENACE(Mexico),MEM(Nicaragua),SNEand,CND(Panamá)andENELGreenPower(CostaRicaandGuatemala).

PublicationandeditorialsupportwereprovidedbyFrancisField,StephanieClarkeandManuelaStefanides.Thereportwascopy-editedbyEmilyYouers,thegraphicdesignwasdonebyPhoenixDesignAid.

DISCLAIMER

Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.

TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.

FIRMCAPACITYIN

CENTRALAMERICA

DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFOR

VARIABLERENEWABLEENERGY

CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMS 6

GLOSSARY 6

EXECUTIVESUMMARY 8

ABOUTTHISGUIDE 10

CENTRALAMERICAOVERVIEW 11

1POWERSECTORS 15

1.1PowersystemsinCentralAmerica 17

1.2Changesinthepowersector 18

1.3Powersectoroutlook 18

2REGIONALMARKET 20

3POWERPURCHASEAGREEMENTMECHANISMS 22

FIRMCAPACITYFORVREINCENTRALAMERICANANDOTHERCOUNTRIES 26

1REGULATEDPOWERMARKETS 27

1.1Belize 27

1.2CostaRica 27

2LIBERALISEDPOWERMARKETS 29

2.1ElSalvador 29

2.2Guatemala 32

2.3Honduras 35

2.4Nicaragua 38

2.5Panama 39

3INTERNATIONALBENCHMARK 43

3.1Brazil 43

3.2Chile 46

3.3Mexico 50

3.4Peru 51

4COUNTRYCASE:ELSALVADOR 55

CONCLUSIONS 56

KEYGUIDELINESFORUSEOFFIRMCAPACITY 60

BIBLIOGRAPHY 62

ANNEXI:CENTRALAMERICALEGALFRAMEWORKANDINSTITUTIONALLANDSCAPE 68

ANNEXII:EQUATIONS 73

ANNEXIII:ELSALVADORCASESTUDY 76

4|FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY

FIGURES

Figure1

CentralAmerica

11

Figure2

Finalenergyconsumptionpersourcein2020

12

Figure3

Thesinglebuyermodel

16

Figure4

Thewholesaleelectricitymarketmodel

17

Figure5

Regionalmarket–SIEPACtransmissiongrid

20

Figure6

Mainelementsofpowersystemprocurement

23

Figure7

Sourcesofrevenuesforagenerator:EnergyandFirmCapacity

24

Figure8

“asgenerated”contractenergytransaction

24

Figure9

Firmcapacityandassociatedenergycontract:associatedenergy

25

Figure10

Firmcapacityandassociatedenergycontract:energytransaction

25

Figure11

Generationmix(2021)inthebenchmarkcountries

58

FigureA1

SolarPVproject–averagehourlyprofile

77

FigureA2

Windproject–averagehourlyprofile

78

TABLES

Table1

CentralAmericancountries,populationandgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)2021

12

Table2

Generation,installedcapacityandpeakdemandinCentralAmericancountriesfor2021

19

TableA1

Energysectorinstitutionsbycountry

68

TableA2

MaincharacteristicsofthepowersectorstructureinCentralAmericacountries

69

TableA3

Existingregulatoryframeworkforvariablerenewableenergyineachcountry

70

TableA4

MaincharacteristicsofFirmCapacityinanalysedcountries

71

TableA5

SummaryofexistingFirmCapacitydefinitions

72

TableA6

Studycaseprojectscharacteristics

77

TableA7

Casestudyinputs

79

TableA8

Windprojects–caseresults

81

TableA9

SolarPV–caseresults

82

FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY|5

ABBREVIATIONS

ANDACRONYMS

AMM

WholesaleMarketAdministrator

ofGuatemala(AdministradordelMercadoMayorista)

ODS

SystemOperator(OperadordelSistema),Honduras

PPA

powerpurchaseagreement

CENACE

NationalEnergyControlCentre

(CentroNacionaldeControldeEnergía),Mexico

PV

SDDP

photovoltaic

stochasticdynamicdual

CND

NationalDispatchCentre(Centro

programming

NacionaldeDespacho),Panama

SIGET

ElectricityandTelecommunications

CNDC

NationalDispatchCentre(CentroNacionaldeDespachodeCarga),Nicaragua

GeneralSuperintendency(SuperintendenciaGeneraldeElectricidadyTelecomunicaciones),

ElSalvador

LTRS

long-termreserveservice

VRE

variablerenewableenergy

MER

regionalelectricitymarket

GLOSSARY

bilateralagreement

Agreementbetweentwopartiesinwhichbothsidesagreetofulfiltheirobligations.

capacitybalance

OrganisedbalancetypicallyperformedbyasystemoperatorinwhichtheFirmCapacitysurplusordeficitofanagentisestimatedbasedontheFirmCapacityofitsownassets,purchasesandsalesofFirmCapacitythroughcontractsanditsFirmCapacitycommitments.

capacitymarket

RegisteredexchangeinwhichpartiesbuyorsellFirmCapacityrequirements.

capacity

Abilityorpotentialtodeliverelectricity.

contractmarket

Registeredexchangewhereenergyandcapacityaretraded.

debt-servicecoverageratio

Measurementofavailablecashflowtopaycurrentdebtobligations.

deficitprobability

Probabilityofnotbeingabletosupplythefulldemandatagiventime.

6|FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY

effectivecapacity

Maximumamountofcapacitythatageneratoriscapableofinjectingintothegridconsideringitstechnicalandregulatoryrestrictions.

efficientFirmCapacity

NecessaryFirmCapacityinthesystemtosupplytheexpecteddemand.

energy

Producttradedthroughoutwholesaleelectricitymarkets.

energybuyers

Forthepurposeofthisdocument,allenergysectorparticipantsthatdemand(buy)electricity,suchasdistributorsandqualifiedusers.

electricitymarket

Systemormechanismforexchangingelectricity-relatedproductsandservicesbetweenparticipants,entitiesorcountries.

FirmCapacity

Tradeableproductthatageneratorcouldofferthroughamarketormechanism.

FirmCapacitydeviation

DifferencesbetweentheFirmCapacityrecognisedforanagentanditsFirmCapacitycommitments.

FirmCapacityregionalcontracts

ContractstosellFirmCapacitybetweenagentsoftheregionalmarketlocatedindifferentcountries.

firmdemand

TheFirmCapacityrequirementsofanagent.

instantproductionrate

Productioncapacityatanygiventime.

internalrateofreturn

Metricusedinfinancialanalysistoestimatetheprofitabilityofpotentialinvestments.Itisadiscountratethatmakesthenetpresentvalueofallcashflowsequaltozeroinadiscountedcashflowanalysis.

Long-TermReserveService

Annualtenderinwhichlong-termFirmCapacityisnegotiated(Panama).

power

Theamountofenergydividedbythetimeittooktousetheenergy.

settlement

Processofcompletingthepaymentforanexchangeofproductsorservices.

sufficiencyofthesystem

Probabilitythatthesystemwillsupplythedemandedelectricityduringcriticalhours.

weightedaveragecostofcapital

Averagecostofcapitalfromallsources,aftertax.Itistheaverageratethatacompanyexpectstopaytofinanceitsassets.

FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY|7

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

TheconceptofFirmCapacityofapowerplantisanassessmentofitscontributiontowardsmeetingdemandduringcriticalconditionsofanelectricalsystem.ThisguideaimstoprovideanoverviewofthecurrentdefinitionforFirmCapacitywithintheregulatoryframeworkoftheCentralAmericanpowersector,withafocusonitsapplicationtovariablerenewablegeneration,andtheeffectithasonthepowerpurchaseagreement(PPA)market(contractmarket).

Worldwide,FirmCapacityisacommercialattributethatallowsgeneratorstouseitasatradeassetinanelectricitymarketorofferitasaguaranteetothesysteminexchangeforaregulatedpayment;thesigningof

long-termcontractswithdistributioncompaniesandlargeconsumersisalsoanoptionforcommercialisation.Someofthekeyfindingsfromtheanalysisinclude:

ThedefinitionofFirmCapacitymusttakeintoaccounttheunderlyingconditionsofthepowersectorforeachcountry(generationmix,demandprofile,flexibility,etc.)butalsomustconsideritsexpecteddevelopment.Theexpectationisforvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)generationtoincreaseitsshareinthegenerationmixacrosscountriesinLatinAmerica,asinitiativeslikeRELAC1beginanimplementationphasethatwilltransformtheenergylandscapeintheregion.

AnimportantcharacteristicofVREgenerationisthatitsvariabilitydependsonunpredictablenaturalresources;countrieswithhighsharesofhydropowergenerationandstrongtransmissiongridshavetheabilitytoabsorbhighlevelsofvariablegenerationandcompensatethevariabilitybyoptimisingtheuseoftheenergystoredinthereservoirs.

Countrieswithlowsharesofhydropowergenerationorwithweaktransmissiongridsmayfaceincreasingoperativeproblemswiththeadditionalvariability.Inthiscontext,thecontributionofeachtechnologytothereliabilityofthesystemmaybesignificantlydifferentdependingontheseconditions.

ThecircumstancesaffectinganelectricalsystemshouldalsobeconsideredwhendescribingFirmCapacity.Challengesrelatedtoadryyearorshort-termproblemsarisingfromrestrictionstocompensateboththevariabilityoftheloadandofnaturalresourcesareexamplesofatypicalsituations.ThedefinitionofFirmCapacityshouldreflectthecriticalconditionsthatthepowersystemmightface.

1RenewablesinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanInitiative.

8|FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY

ThedefinitionofFirmCapacitymustconsidertherealcontributionofVREgenerationtothesufficiencyofthesystembyusingoptimisationandsimulationmodelsusedtypicallyfordispatchscheduling.

Thefactthataspecifictechnologyoffersanenergysupplythatdependsontheavailabilityofanaturalresource,potentiallyachallengeforthesystemoperatortomanage,shouldnotbeabarriertotherecognitionofFirmCapacityforthattechnology.

ThecriticalperiodinwhichFirmCapacityisevaluatedshouldbealignedwiththehourscorrespondingtolowerreservemargins.

ThemethodsusedforFirmCapacitycalculationshouldaimtoallowalltechnologiestocompeteforFirmCapacityrecognition(asithappensforenergy)andnotincludeexternalbarriers(likerestrictionstoparticipateintenders).

ThemethodsusedforFirmCapacityrecognitionshouldconsiderthefutureadoptionofnewtechnologiesintotheenergysystem(e.g.storage)andfortheparticipationofallagents(energybuyeroroff-taker,distributioncompanies,distributedgenerationactivitiesandlargeconsumerswhomanagethedemandside).

Cleardefinitionsandmethodologiesshouldcontinuetoserveasasignalforthedevelopmentofnewenergygenerationandfortheguaranteeofcontinuedsupplyinthelongterm.

ThedefinitionofFirmCapacityissetbytheregulationsofeachcountry,andthathasworkedasahindranceforthedevelopmentofFirmCapacitycontractsintheregionalmarket.Asobserved,thedefinitionisnotconsistentacrossthesixparticipatingcountries,andthemeetingpointofFirmCapacityestimatedbyonecountryandrecognisedbyitsneighbourshasyettobeidentified.

FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY|9

ABOUTTHISGUIDE

AnalysisforthisdocumenthasfocusedonthemethodsusedinCentralAmericancountriestorecogniseFirmCapacity,plusabenchmarkanalysisfocusingonBrazil,Chile,MexicoandPeru.Therationaleforselectingthesecountries,wasbasedontheneedtocompareestablishedwholesaleelectricitymarketsintheregionthathaveimplementedFirmCapacityrecognitionforrenewablegenerationthroughdifferentcriteria.

FirmCapacityasaproductaimstoprovideastablepricesignalforthedevelopmentofnewgenerationcapacityinthelongtermandensurethesecurityofelectricitysupplyinthesystem.Oneofitsmainfeaturesisthatitprovidesastablesourceofincomeforpowergeneratorsthatallowsthemtocoverfixedcostsanddevelopnewgenerationcapacitythatpreventsthesystemfromexperiencingdeficitconditions.

ThisreportbenefittedfromthedevelopmentofacasestudybasedontheelectricitysectorofElSalvador(seesection“CountryCase:ElSalvador”).ThestudyanalysedtheimpactoftheFirmCapacityrecognitionmethodologyforpowerpurchaseagreements(PPAs),consideringthedifferenttypesofcontractsandPPAstrategiesforthedevelopmentofasolarphotovoltaicandawindpowerplantinthecountry.

Forthepurposeofthisguide,theterm“FirmCapacity”willrefertotheconceptofFirmCapacityasappliedindifferentcountriesrefertotheFirmCapacityconceptusedacrosscountries.

Thisguidehasbeenstructuredinfoursections,aimingtoprovideanoverviewoftheuseofFirmCapacitythroughouttheregion,analysethedifferentoptionsavailableforapplyingthisterm,andhighlightchallengesandrecommendationsfortherecognitionofFirmCapacityinthedevelopmentofvariablerenewableenergyprojectsmovingforward:

1.

CentralAmericaoverview:ageneraloverviewoftheregion’ssevencountries,theirrelevantcharacteristicsandtheirpowersectors,includingadescriptionofmarketdesignandcontractualmechanismsintheregion.

2.

FirmcapacityforvariablerenewableenergyinCentralAmericaandothercountries:areviewofthespecificregulatoryframeworkforFirmCapacityrecognitionforvariablerenewableenergyinCentralAmericancountries.ThesectionalsoincludesareviewoftheFirmCapacityconceptthroughoutfourcountriesinLatinAmerica,providingacomparisonofhowrelatedguidelinesareappliedoutsideCentralAmerica.

3.

Conclusions:maintakeawaysofthestudy.

4.

KeyguidelinesforuseofFirmCapacity:guidelinesrelatingtothemainelementstoconsiderforthedefinitionofFirmCapacityandthemethodologythatshouldbecontemplatedforcommercialuseoftheconcept.

10|FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY

CENTRALAMERICA

OVERVIEW

TheCentralAmericaregionliesbetweenMexicoandSouthAmericaandcomprisesofBelize,CostaRica,ElSalvador,Guatemala,Honduras,NicaraguaandPanama.

CentralAmericaspreadsacrosstheisthmuslocatedbetweenthePacificOceanandtheCaribbeanSeawithanapproximatedistanceof1835kilometres(km)fromthenorthwesttothesoutheastpoint.Alllocationsinthisregionarenotmorethan200kmfromthesea,andthenarrowestareaoflandis50kmwide(BushnellandWoodward,2022).(SeeFigure1)

Figure1CentralAmerica

Belize

\

Belmopan

Guatemala

Honduras

Guatemala

\Tegucigalpa

SanSalvador\\

ElSalvadorNicaragua

\Managua

\SanJosé

CostaRica

Panama

\Panamá

0300km

BasedontheUnitedNationsmap.

Disclaimer:Thismapisprovidedforillustrationpurposesonly.BoundariesandnamesshownonthismapdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthestatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.

Theregionhascloseto51.5millioninhabitants(0.7%oftheworld’spopulation)andatotalestimatedgrossdomesticproductofUSD288billionperyearin2021(IMF,2022;seeTable1).

FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY|11

Nicaragua

6.5

14001

Panama

63605

4.3

TOTAL

287650

51.5

Table1

CentralAmericancountries,populationandgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)2021

GDP(USD,MILLIONS)

COUNTRY

POPULATION

(MILLIONS)

0.4

2426

Belize

CostaRica

5.2

64417

ElSalvador

6.5

28737

Guatemala

18.3

85974

10.1

28490

Honduras

Source:(IMF,2022).

In2020,thetotalenergyconsumptionoftheregionwas28516kilotonnesofoilequivalent,with45%fromtheconsumptionofoilanditsderivatives(liquifiedpetroleumgas,gasoline,kerosene,diesel,fueloil,etc.),36%fromtheconsumptionofwoodand14%fromelectricityconsumption.Ingeneral,theregiondependsheavilyontheuseofcrudeoilandderivatives,whichaccountsforbetween32%and72%ofthetotalconsumption.

WoodisthemainsourceofenergyinGuatemalaandasecondoptioninHondurasandNicaragua,encompassingmorethan40%ofthetotalenergyconsumptioninthosecountries.

Electricityuseaccountsforbetween7%(Guatemala)and27%(Panama)ofthetotalenergyconsumptionineachcountry(OLADE,2021).(SeeFigure2.)

Figure2Finalenergyconsumptionpersourcein2020

CostaRica

Belize

6%3%

6%

1%3%

11%

14%

24%

61%

71%

12|FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY

Figure2Finalenergyconsumptionpersourcein2020(continued)

ElSalvador

1%6%0%

21%

72%

Honduras

0

%

41%

43%

1%

15%

Panama

2%7%1%

27%

63%

Guatemala

4%

32%

57%

7%

0%

Nicaragua

4%

41%

43%

0%

12%

Other

Wood

Bagasse

Electricity

Oil&Derivatives

Source:(OLADE,2021).

In2019,CentralAmerica’sgreenhousegasemissionsaccountedfor160milliontonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent,includingchangesinlanduseandforestry,totallingapproximately0.3%oftheglobalfigure.Theenergysectorwasresponsiblefor37%ofthetotalemissionsintheregion,followedbytheagriculturesector(22%)andlandusechangeandforestry(18%).Intermsofusage,transportationisthemostsignificantdriverofthetotalemissionsfortheenergysector(52%),followedbyelectricityandheat(21%)andmanufacturingandconstruction(14%)(ClimateWatch,2023).

FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY|13

Deploymentofrenewableenergytechnologiesandenergyefficiencyprogrammes,aswellastheelectrificationoftheend-usesector,cancontributetoreductionofenergy-relatedemissionsintheregion,specificallyinemission-intensivesectorssuchaspowerandtransport.IRENA’sRenewableEnergyRoadmapforCentralAmerica:TowardsaRegionalEnergyTransitionaimstoprovidestrategiestoacceleratetheenergytransitionand,consequently,contributetoemissionsreduction(IRENA,2022a).

Box1RenewableEnergyRoadmapforCentralAmerica:TowardsaRegional

EnergyTransition

IRENA’sRenewableenergyroadmaps(REmap)programmeassessestherenewableenergypotentialofcountries,regionsandtheworld,aimingtoprovideinsights,strategiesandpathwaysfortheenergytransition.

TheoutcomesofREmapforCentralAmericaarebasedonthecontextofeachcountry,includingitsenergyresources,regulatoryenvironmentandsocio-economicstatus.Themethodologyofthisenergyassessmentincludestheanalysisoffourenergyscenarioscoveringtheperiod2018-2050,basedondatafromend-usesectors,resultsfrommodellingindividualandregionalpowersystems,andaflexibilityassessmentoftheelectricalsystem.Thestudywasaccompaniedbyananalysisoftheinvestment,costsandemissionsof

technologiesassociatedwiththeend-useandpowersectors.

ThefourenergyscenariosconsideredintheREmapstudywere:

•Baseenergyscenario:Thisscenarioissimilartoabusiness-as-usualscenario.Itshowspossibleoutcomesunderexistingpolicieswithoutchangesintheshort,mediumorlongterm.

•Plannedenergyscenario(PES):ThePESreflectstheoutcomesunderthecurrentplansandexpectedobjectivesofeachcountry.ThisincludesthenationallydeterminedcontributionssubmittedundertheParisAgreement.

•Transformingenergyscenario:Thisscenariopresentsadeterminedpathwaytomeettheclimatetargets,itcontemplatesawidedeploymentofrenewableenergy,theinclusionofnewtechnologiesandtherise

ofenergyefficiency.

•Decarbonisingenergyscenario(DES):TheDESisthemostambitiousscenariounderthisanalysis.Itenvisionsfurtheremissionreductionalternativesfortheenergysystemofeachcountry.

ResultsdrawnfromtheanalysisshowthattheneededtransformationofenergysystemsinCentralAmericancountriesrequiresindividualbutalsocoordinatedeffortsthroughintegratedregionalplanning,whichisacentralactivityinemissionreductioneffortsandtheenergytransition.Adecarbonisationstrategyfocusedontheelectrificationofthetransportfleetandtheincreasingpenetrationofrenewablescanreducefossilfuelconsumptioninthepowersectorby90%andintheend-usesectorby65%by2050undertheDES.Theseactivitiescanbesupportedbyusingthetotalrenewableenergypotentialintheregionalpowersystem,estimatedtobearound180gigawatts.

In2019,thetransportsectorremainedasthemaincontributortoregionalemissions,followedbythepowersectorandindustry(ClimateWatch,2023).TheDESshowsthatregionalemissionscanbereducedbyaround70%by2050incomparisontothePES,aslongasinvestment,technologycostsandenergytargetsestablishedundertheDESarefulfilled.

Energyefficiencycouldfurtherbenefitfromregionalintegration,throughthedefinitionandupdateofregionalstandardstoincreaseefficiency.Suchintegratedstandardscouldbringenergyintensitydown43%by2050.

Plansandstrategieswillrequireregionaljointeffortsandtheexecutionofpoliciesandregulationstoachieveinternationalandregionalclimatecommitments.

Thedirectuseofmodernrenewablessuchasbioenergy,geothermal,solarthermalandbiofuelsshowsgreatpotentialtohelpreducetheuseoffossilfuelinallend-usesectors.Anexampleistheuseofgreenhydrogenasafuelforheavycargoroadtransportandinternationalshipping.

Formoreinformationvisit:

/Publications/2022/Mar/Renewable-Energy-Roadmap-for-Central-

America

14|FIRMCAPACITYINCENTRALAMERICA:DEFINITIONSANDIMPLICATIONSFORVREFIRMCAPACITY

1

POWERSECTORS

Withineachnationalpowersector,severalinterconnectedsystemsexist;theseoverseethegeneration,transmissionanddistributionofelectricity.Themainobjectiveofthiscollectionofsystems–referredtocollectivelyas“thepowersystem”–istoprovideareliableelectricitysupplytoitsconsumersand,givenitscapabilitiestoincorporaterenewabletechnologiesandenergyefficienciesacrossthesystem,itscomplexconfigurationandthepoliciesthatregulateit,playamajorroleinachievinganenergytransition.

Thewaypowersystem