2021年俄罗斯和独联体移动经济报告（英）-46正式版

TheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021Copyright©2021GSMAssociationTheGSMArepresentstheinterestsofmobileoperatorsworldwide,unitingmorethan750operatorswithalmost400companiesinthebroadermobileecosystem,includinghandsetanddevicemakers,softwarecompanies,equipmentprovidersandinternetcompanies,aswellasorganisationsinadjacentindustrysectors.TheGSMAalsoproducestheindustry-leadingMWCeventsheldannuallyinBarcelona,LosAngelesandShanghai,aswellastheMobile360Seriesofregionalconferences.GSMAIntelligenceisthedefinitivesourceofglobalmobileoperatordata,analysisandforecasts,andpublisherofauthoritativeindustryreportsandresearch.Ourdatacoverseveryoperatorgroup,networkandMVNOineverycountryworldwide–fromAfghanistantoZimbabwe.Itisthemostaccurateandcompletesetofindustrymetricsavailable,comprisingtensofmillionsofindividualdatapoints,updateddaily.GSMAIntelligenceisreliedonbyleadingoperators,vendors,regulators,financialinstitutionsandthird-partyindustryplayers,tosupportstrategicdecision-makingandlong-terminvestmentplanning.Thedataisusedasanindustryreferencepointandisfrequentlycitedbythemediaandbytheindustryitself.Ourteamofanalystsandexpertsproduceregularthought-leadingresearchreportsacrossarangeofindustrytopics.Formoreinformation,pleasevisittheGSMAcorporatewebsiteatFollowtheGSMAonTwitter:@GSMAinfo@ContentsExecutivesummary21Themobilemarketinnumbers1.1.Amatureregionalmobilemarket,withdiversityatthecountrylevel1.2.5Glaunchesbegin,butthe2020swillstillbelongto4G1.3.Consumersgodigital891113161.4.Amodestrevenueoutlookas5Gcapexbeginstorise2Keytrendsshapingthedigitallandscape18192.1.5G:onthehorizon2.2.Telcoofthefuture:revenuediversification2.3.IoT:eyesontheenterprise2225272.4.Mobiletowers:wholesalechangesMobilecontributingtoeconomicandsocialdevelopment2833.1.Mobile’seconomiccontribution3.2.Mobile’simpactondigitalinclusion3.3.Mobileaddressingsocialchallenges2932344Policiesfordigitaladvancement4.1.Establishinganeffectivespectrumpolicy36374.2.Enablingfastandefficientnetworkbuild-outs4.3.Improvingcoverageinhard-to-reachareas4.4.Adoptingataxationapproachthatspursgrowth394041ExecutivesummaryThepandemicunderlinesthecrucialroleofconnectivityTheCovid-19pandemichashadaprofoundimpactonthedigitallandscapeintheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS)regionandelsewherearoundtheworld.Therestrictionsonsocialinteraction,tradeandtravelthathavebeenimplementedtocontainthespreadofthevirushavehighlightedthevalueofconnectivityforsocialwellbeingandeconomicactivity.Thepandemichasalsoemphasisedtheimportanceofuniversalaccesstofast,reliableinternetandarangeThemobileindustryintheCISregionhasplayedavitalroleinkeepingcitizensconnectedduringthepandemic,suchasbyofferingcallanddatatariffdiscounts,providingfreeaccesstoentertainmentandhealthcareservices,anddonatingtonationalCovid-19relieffunds.ThoughthesituationremainschallenginginmanyCISmarkets,themobilesectoristakingmeasurestohelpsocietyrecoverandtobuildmoreresilienteconomies.Thisincludesprovidingremoteworkplacesolutions,utilisingdigitalchannelsandsupportingchildren’seducationthroughtechnology.ofdigitalservicesforindividualsandbusinessesalike.Highregionalmarketpenetration,butscopeforgrowthremainsAttheendof2020,theCISregionwashometo238millionuniquemobilesubscribers,morethan70%ofwhomwereaccountedforbyRussiaandUkraine.Uniquemobilesubscriberpenetrationinthesetwomarketsisparticularlyhighandsignificantlyhigherthanthepenetrationratesofmanyothercountries(e.g.62%inTajikistan).Assuch,someheadroomforsubscribergrowthremains,withthemostsubstantialgainssettomaterialiseinrelativelyunderpenetratedmarkets,includingKazakhstanandUzbekistan.Withgoodavailabilityoflower-costhandsets,smartphoneadoptioncontinuestorisesteadilyandisforecasttosurpass85%insixmarketsby2025.Theexpandingnumberofsmartphoneandmobileinternetusersintheregionisleadingtoasurgeindatatrafficasengagementwithbandwidth-hungryapplicationsrises.2ExecutivesummaryTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS20214Gisthepriorityinthenearterm,with5GyettotakerootThoughlaterthanmanydevelopedmarkets,theCISregionisnowseeinganacceleratingshifttomobilebroadband.4Gcementeditselfastheleadingmobiletechnologyintheregionduring2020andremainsastrategicpriorityforoperators.Greateruseofdata-intensiveservicesanddemandforhigherspeedswilldrivefurtheradoption,with4Gaccountingfortwothirdsoftotalconnectionsby2024.Incertaincountries,GSMAIntelligenceexpectsthistodeliversomerevenueuplift.attheearliest.Inthemeantime,operatorswillshiftfocustotestingvarioususecasefortheenterpriseandconsumersegments.By2025,theCISregionwillbehometoover30million5Gconnections,equivalenttoanadoptionrateof8%.Capexisexpectedtodipslightlyin2021asoperatorstargetcapitalefficiency.However,thefocuswillshiftquicklyto5Ginthecomingyears.Between2020and2025,mobileoperatorsintheCISregionwillinvestover$26billionintheirnetworks,ofwhichanincreasingsharewillbe5G-related.Initialmonetisationstrategieswillbecentredonenhancedmobilebroadband(eMBB)servicesforconsumers,inadditiontoprivatenetworksforenterprisecustomers.Inlate2020,theRussiangovernmentreleaseda5Groadmap,requiringoperatorstobuild5Gnetworksusinglocallyproducedequipment.Thisdecision,alongwithunresolvedissuesaroundspectrum,risksdelayingthelaunchofcommercial5GservicesinRussiauntil2024MobileindustrydriveseconomicgrowthandsocialdevelopmentIn2020,mobiletechnologiesandservicesgenerated7%ofGDPintheCISregion–acontributionthatamountedtoalmost$143billionofeconomicvalueadded.Themobileecosystemalsosupportedapproximately740,000jobs(directlyandindirectly)andmadeasubstantialcontributiontothefundingofthepublicsector,withalmost$13billionraisedthroughtaxesonthesector.By2025,mobile’scontributionwillgrowbyaround$17billion(approaching$160billion)ascountriesintheregionincreasinglybenefitfromtheimprovementsinproductivityandefficiencybroughtaboutbytheincreasedtake-upofmobileservices.Operatorsarealsomakingsignificantcontributionstothewelfareofsocietymorebroadly.Continuedinvestmentsinnetworksarehelpingbridgethedigitaldivideanddriveinclusionacrosstheregion.ThemobileindustryiscontributingtoprogresstowardstheUN’sSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).Thisincludesprovidingaccesstolife-enhancingeducationaltoolsandplatforms,deliveringtheinfrastructurethatspursinnovation,andsupportingeffortstocombatclimatechange.Policiestosupporttheregion’srecoveryandfutureprosperityInapost-pandemicworld,digitalservicesandtechnologieswillbevitaltoreinvigoratetheCISeconomyandrebuildbusinessesandcommunities.Therolloutofmobilebroadbandcanhelpspursocioeconomicgrowthandtransformtraditionalindustries.Therehasneverbeenamorerelevanttimeforgovernmentstoimplementpolicymeasurestostimulateinvestmentinconnectivityandaddressthebarrierstointernetuse.Inthecontextof5G,whichwillunderpinthedigitaleconomythisdecade,specificmeasuresonspectrumandefficientnetworkrolloutareparticularlyimportanttostimulateinvestmentsaswellasinnovationinapplicationsandsolutionsforavarietyofusecases.Policymakersshouldalsorevisetheoutdatedelectromagneticemissionrulesthatcouldhindercost-efficient5Gdeployments,andrethinkfiscalpolicytostriketherightbalancebetweentaxrevenuegenerationandoperatorinvestment.Executivesummary3MobileEconomyRussia&CISUNIQUEMOBILESUBSCRIBERSSIMCONNECTIONS(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)2020-20252020-2025CAGR:0.4%CAGR:0.5%2025202524

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ꢏPenetrationratePenetrationrate81%82%135%138%PercentageofpopulationPercentageofpopulationMOBILEINTERNETUSERSOPERATORREVENUESANDINVESTMENTTotalrevenues2020-20252020CAGR:3.3%$22.7

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bn202520252020182m214mꢍꢋPenetrationrate62%72%Operatorcapexof$26.5billionPercentageofpopulationfortheperiod2020–2025Percentageoftotalconnectionsꢇ4Gꢉ5Gꢅ(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)202533

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70%Percentageoftotalconnections(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)ConnectionsSMARTPHONEADOPTIONLICENSEDCELLULARIOTCONNECTIONSꢐꢒ202020252020421m71%

85%Totalconnections2025727mPercentageofconnections(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)TotalconnectionsPUBLICFUNDING2020$13

bnMobileecosystemcontributiontopublicfundingMOBILEINDUSTRYCONTRIBUTIONTOGDP(beforeregulatoryandspectrumfees)JobssupportedbyEMPLOYMENTthemobileecosystem,405

00020202025$143bn$

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bnDirectjobs2020+330,000IndirectjobsTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021TheCISregion1RussiaBelarusKazakhstanUkraineMoldovaGeorgiaAzerbaijanKyrgyzstanArmeniaTajikistanUzbekistanTurkmenistan1.InthisreportwedefinetheCISregionasthe12marketsshowninthegraphic.However,wenotethatGeorgiawithdrewitsCISmembershipin2008,whileUkraineendeditsparticipationinCISstatutorybodieson19May2018.6ExecutivesummaryTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021SubscriberandtechnologytrendsforkeymarketsRussiaTECHNOLOGYMIX*SUBSCRIBERPENETRATION7%9%17%4%2020202589%89%2020202550%SMARTPHONEADOPTION33%202020252G3G4G5G74%87%81%UkraineTECHNOLOGYMIX*SUBSCRIBERPENETRATION5%

4%18%2020202529%88%89%31%20202025SMARTPHONEADOPTION2020202560%53%82%2G3G4G5G71%UzbekistanTECHNOLOGYMIX*SUBSCRIBERPENETRATION4%10%24%2020202526%62%67%36%20202025SMARTPHONEADOPTION51%202020252G3G4G5G60%77%50%KazakhstanTECHNOLOGYMIX*SUBSCRIBERPENETRATION14%11%2020202527%70%72%46%20202025SMARTPHONEADOPTION40%2020202561%73%86%2G3G4G5G*Percentageoftotalmobileconnections(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)Note:TotalsmaynotaddupduetoroundingExecutivesummary701ThemobilemarketinnumbersTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS20211.1Amatureregionalmobilemarket,withdiversityatthecountrylevelSource:GSMAIntelligenceFigure1KeymilestonesoverthenextfiveyearsintheCISregion2021202220232024202570%ofthepopulationsubscribetomobileinternetservicesMOBILEINTERNETSUBSCRIBERS200millionmobileinternetsubscribers3Gadoptionaccountsforlessthan20%oftotalconnections3Gconnectionsfallbelow150million3Gconnectionsfallbelow100million3G4G5G4Gadoptionaccountsforoverhalfoftotalconnections4Gadoptionaccountsfortwothirdsoftotalconnections250million4GconnectionsOver1million5GconnectionsOver30million5GconnectionsMOBILEBROADBAND(MBB)MBBaccountsforover80%ofconnectionsMBBaccountsfor95%ofconnectionsOver375millionMBBconnectionsSmartphoneadoptionaccountsforthreequartersoftotalconnections325millionsmartphoneconnectionsSMARTPHONECONNECTIONSThemobilemarketinnumbers9TheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021Source:GSMAIntelligenceFigure2FourinfivepeoplesubscribetomobileservicesintheCISregion;RussiaandUkraineleadthewaySubscriberpenetration(percentageofpopulation)SubscribersRussiaUkraine89%88%130m39m238m8mCISregionBelarus81%80%Moldova75%70%69%66%3mKazakhstanGeorgia13m3mArmenia2mAzerbaijanKyrgyzstanTurkmenistanTajikistanUzbekistan66%65%64%7m4m4m62%62%6m21mSource:GSMAIntelligenceFigure3Thereremainsheadroomforgrowthinunder-penetratedmarkets,suchasUzbekistanNewmobilesubcribers,2020–2025(million)0.25.70.70.91.12.9UzbekistanKazakhstanTajikistanAzerbaijanOthersCISregion10ThemobilemarketinnumbersTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS20211.25Glaunchesbegin,butthe2020swillstillbelongto4GSource:GSMAIntelligenceFigure44Gadoptionnears50%in2021asmigrationfrom2Gand3GgatherspacePercentageoftotalconnections(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%70%16%8%5%2020202120222023202420252G3G4G5GThemobilemarketinnumbers11TheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS20214GremainsthefoundationofthemobileindustryNewmobiletrafficdemandsandusecaseswillcontinuetofuel4G’sgrowth,underpinnedbythefollowingmarketdynamics:•IoTanddigitaltransformation:Between2020and2025,GSMAIntelligenceforecastsIoTconnectionstogrowby1.7×intheCISregion.While5GwilldelivercriticalIoTcapabilities,suchasmassivemachine-typecommunicationsandultra-reliablelow-latencycommunication,muchofthiswillrequire5Gstandalone(SA)deployments.Inthemeantime,LTE-MandNB-IoTwillbeexpectedtodotheheavylifting.•2G/3Gmigration:With2Gand3Gaccountingforaround60%ofconnections(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)intheCISregion,shutdownsofnetworkssupporting2Gor3Gservicesmightseemawayoff.However,with2Gexpectedtoaccountforonly5%ofconnectionsby2025,operatorsintheregionarelikelytosoonbeginadvancingplanstorefarmspectrumtoexpand4Gand5Gcoverageandcapacity.•VoLTEsupport:VoiceoverLTE(VoLTE)representsthedefaultvoicesolutionfor5G.IntheCISregion,15operatorshavelaunchedVoLTEservices,includingmostrecentlyTele2Kazakhstan(January2021),Kyivstar(December2020)andMegaFonTajikistan(December2020).GSMAIntelligenceexpectstheretobe145millionVoLTE(includingvoiceover5G)connectionsinCISin2025,representingapenetrationrateofnearly60%.Tobesuccessful,VoLTErequiresallpartiestoadheretoasingle,commonimplementationofinterfacesbetweeneverydeviceandnetwork,whichhelpstofacilitateinterconnectionandroaming.Source:GSMAIntelligenceFigure5Commercialmobile5GserviceshavelaunchedintheCISregion,but5Gremainsalonger-termstrategyformostoperatorsCommercialmobile5GlaunchesKyrgyzstanRussiaBelarusTajikistanTurkmenistanKazakhstan5Glaunches2021202220232024UzbekistanArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgiaMoldovaUkraine12Themobilemarketinnumbers1.3ConsumersgodigitalSource:GSMAIntelligenceFigure6MobileinternetadoptionwillrisequicklyinseveralCISmarketsMobileinternetpenetration(percentageofpopulation)80%66%80%72%71%69%52%66%57%64%50%59%44%57%33%55%50%63%53%35%50%44%46%41%20202025Themobilemarketinnumbers13TheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021Source:GSMAIntelligenceFigure7Smartphonepenetrationwillsurpass85%insixmarketsby2025SmartphonesasapercentageoftotalconnectionsTopthreesmartphonemarketsinCISregion(numberofsmartphoneconnections,2025)Russia193millionUkraine49millionUzbekistan25million88%70%88%87%87%87%86%85%74%73%71%69%69%67%CISregionBelarusAzerbaijanGeorgiaRussiaArmeniaKazakhstan20202025Source:EricssonFigure8Migrationto4GservicesistriggeringadataboomDatatrafficpersmartphoneinCentralandEasternEurope(GB/month)201920202026forecast29.07.25.114ThemobilemarketinnumbersTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021Source:GSMAIntelligenceConsumersinFocusSurvey2020Figure9Thepandemichasspurredusageofmobile-enabledservicesPercentageofmobileusersinRussiathathaveengagedinanactivityontheirmobilephoneatleastonceamonth9%5%6%5%8%15%11%5%75%74%72%68%60%49%49%43%TransfermoneyPayutilitiesWatchfreeonlinevideoMakevideocallsImproveeducationPurchasegoodsAccessgovernmentservicesImprove/monitorhealth20192020increaseCovid-19acceleratessmartphonetrendsThepandemicdisruptedsmartphonesupplychainsandcausedasharpdropinconsumerdemandduetoeconomicuncertainty.Thoughshipmentvolumeshavebeguntorecover,thepandemicislikelytohaveprofoundimplicationsforthesmartphoneindustry:1.Lengtheninghandsetreplacementcycles:Priortothepandemic,theaveragehandsetreplacementcycleworldwidewas2.25years.Withconsumersfacingtougheconomicprospects,thereplacementcyclecouldextendtothreeyearsormore,slowingsalesintheshorttomediumterm.2.Handsetsalesmovingonline:As35–40%ofhandsetsalesforoperatorsworldwidestillgothroughretailoutlets,lockdown-relatedstoreclosureshaveconstrainedupgradevolumesandhandsetrevenues.Thishasacceleratedthemigrationtodigitalchannels;MTS,forinstance,reporteda136%year-on-yearincreaseine-commercesalesinRussiaforQ42020.OtheroperatorsintheCISregionhavereportedsimilartrends,leadingthemtoreconsiderthesizeoftheirretailfootprints.Beelinepermanentlyshut872storesacross2019and2020,whileMegaFonclosed300storesin2020.3.Shiftingvendorlandscape:Giventheimpactofthepandemiconconsumerspending,lower-costhandsetsarelikelytoremainanimportantbattlegroundinCISmarkets.SalesofHuaweismartphoneshavebeenhitbyUSsanctions,pavingthewayforXiaomi,RealmeandotherChinesevendorstogrowtheirmarketshareintheCISregionandbeyond.Themobilemarketinnumbers15TheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS20211.4Amodestrevenueoutlookas5GcapexbeginstoriseThepandemiccontributedtoadeclineinmobilerevenueinRussiain2020.Thenumberofsubscribersfellduetolockdown-relatedstoreclosuresandsteeperdisconnectionsintheprepaidsegment;therewasalsoadropinroamingrevenuesfromguestworkersandtourists.However,thereweresomebrightspots,withrevenuegrowingbymorethan5%yearonyearinAzerbaijan,Kyrgyzstan,Moldova,TurkmenistanandUzbekistan.Lookingahead,monetisingthegrowthin4Gpenetrationwillbekeytoincreasingmobilerevenuesacrosstheregion.Source:GSMAIntelligenceFigure10Thepandemichasaddedtopressureontop-linegrowthOperatorrevenue(billion)$7.6$8.0$7.8$7.8$7.9$8.0$15.1$15.1$15.1$15.0$15.0$15.0202020212022202320242025RussiaOtherCISmarkets16ThemobilemarketinnumbersTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021MobilenetworksintheCISregionshowednotableresilienceduringthepandemic,despitethechangesinconsumptionlevelsandpatterns,reflectingthelevelsofinvestmentbyoperatorsinrecentyears.prioritieswillthenshiftquicklyto5G.Between2020and2025mobileoperatorsinCISwillinvest$26.5billionintotal;5Gwillaccountforanincreasingproportionofcapexinthisperiod,drivenbyearlyCapexisexpectedtodipslightlyin2021asoperatorsdeploymentsinUzbekistan,BelarusandKazakhstan.maintaintheirfocusoncapitalefficiency.InvestmentSource:GSMAIntelligenceFigure11Capextorisesteadilyinthe2020s,thoughcostefficiencyremainsanimmediatepriorityBillion$62020–2025$5$4$3$2$1spendTotal$26.5bn23%19%19%18%18%18%$0202020212022202320242025CapexRegionalcapex/revenueThemobilemarketinnumbers1702KeytrendsshapingthedigitallandscapeTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS20212.15G:onthehorizonAsofJune2021,5Gwascommerciallyavailablefrom176operatorsin66marketsworldwide–andmanymoreoperatorshaveannouncedlaunchplans.WhilepioneeringmarketssuchasChina,SouthKoreaandtheUSarewitnessingnext-generationnetworksexpandandadoptiongainscale,the5GerahasyettotrulybeginfortheCISregion.Forinstance,Veonhasstatedthatitspriorityisincreasingsmartphonetake-upand4Gaccessacrossitsfootprint,anditdoesnotexpecttocommercialiseconsumer5Goverthenextthreeyears.2Atthetimeofwriting,various5Gfieldtrialsareongoing,butdeploymentsareyettobegininearnestandonlyUzbekistanhasreachedthecommercialisationstage.UcellannouncedinApril2021thelaunchof5GservicesinthecentralbusinessdistrictofTashkentusingC-bandspectrum.UntiltheendofMay,customerswith5G-capabledevices(around2,500people)wereabletosignuptoapromotionaltariffvalidforfivedays,whichcostUZS5,000andofferedunlimited5Gdatausageat•State-ownedBeltelecomhassuccessfullycompletedthetestingofa700MHz5GnetworkinBelarus–thefirstintheCISregion.TheMinisterofCommunicationsandInformatizationhasconfirmedthatthegovernmentisaimingtoachievenationwide5Gcoverageby2025.InMay2020,A1launcheda5GSAnetworkintestmode,thefirst5GnetworkinBelarusconstructedonthebasisofstandalonearchitecture.•HuaweiandBeelinehavefinishedthe5GintegrationprocessinKazakhstanandarelookingtosetupapilotprojectinNur-Sultanin2021.Thefirstpartofthetrialwillconcerndatatransmission,withthesecondpartfocusedonapplicationssuchasaugmentedandvirtualreality(AR/VR)andcloudgaming.speedsofaround1Gbps.3Meanwhile,othermobileoperatorsarelayingthegroundworkforthefuturearrivalof5G:•MTShaslaunchedthefirstmulti-locationpilot5GnetworkforconsumersinRussia,covering14high-footfallpublicspacesinMoscow.Thenetworkusesspectruminthe4.4–5GHzrange,withfrequenciesinthe700MHzand3.4–3.8GHzbandsunavailableduetotheircontinuedusebybroadcastersandmilitary/satellite.2.“Veontostrivefordeeper4Gcoverage,nocurrent5Gplans”,Reuters,June20213.“Ucelllaunches5GinTashkent”,Ucell,April2021Keytrendsshapingthedigitallandscape19TheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021Theinitialfocusof5GintheCISregionwillbeonenhancedmobilebroadband(eMBB)toaugmentcapacityincongestedareas(e.g.airports,shoppingmalls,trainstations)andtoofferhighernetworkthroughput–81%ofRussianconsumersexpect5Gtodeliveranimprovementindataspeeds,whichoperatorsmayuseasamarketingdifferentiatorInRussia,5GsuffersfromrelativelylowrecognitionamongconsumerscomparedwiththoseinSouthKoreaandtheUK,forexample.However,there7hasbeenanotableyear-on-yearimprovementinawarenessandoursurveyresultssuggestthat,afteraprimeron5G,Russianconsumersaremorelikelythanmost(includingEuropeanandNorthAmericanconsumers)toexpressaninterestinupgrading–andthatthemajoritywouldpayapremiumtodoso.However,thegovernment’sdecisionfor5Gnetworkstobebuiltusingonlydomesticequipmentrisksdelayingthelaunchofcommercialservicesuntil2024.against4G.Though5G’ssuperiorcapabilitieshave4thepotentialtounderpinarangeofrich,newend-userexperiences,halfofRussianconsumersdonotknowenoughaboutthetechnologyordonotconsideritsbenefitsappealing.Thelowlevelof5awarenessofinnovativeusecaseshighlightstheneedfortargetedmessagingfromoperatorsontheadvantagesof5G.Further,withfibrebroadbandpenetrationrelativelyhighinthelikesofBelarusPositivewordofmouthfromearlyadopters,togetherwiththeincreasingportfolioanddecliningpricesof5Ghandsets,willbekeytokick-startingtheCISregion’stransitionintothe5Gera.Momentumfor5Guptakewillstartbuildingtowards2025,withmorethan30millionconnectionsexpectedbytheendofthatyear.andRussia,theremaybelimitedopportunitiesfor65G-basedfixedwirelessservicesintheshortterm.Source:GSMAIntelligenceFigure12WithmostCISmarketsyettolaunch5Gservices,widespreadadoptionwillnotbeseenoverthemediumtermMillion,percentageoftotalconnections358%30252015105020212022202320242025ConnectionsAdoption(%)4.Howspectrumwillshapetheoutlookfor5GinRussia,GSMAIntelligence,20205.GSMAIntelligenceConsumersinFocusSurvey20206.FTTHCouncilEurope–Panorama,IDATE,20207.5GConsumerScorecard,GSMAIntelligence,202120KeytrendsshapingthedigitallandscapeTheMobileEconomyRussia&CIS2021Source:GSMAIntelligenceFigure13TheCISregion’sleading5GmarketswilltrailtheirEuropeancounterpartsintermsofadoptionrates5Gadoptionin2025(percentageoftotalconnections)FinlandBelgium57%55%52%NorwayEurope40%Belarus24%KazakhstanUzbekistanCISregion11%10%8%Enterprise5GispivotaltothefourthindustrialrevolutionInadditiontothebenefitsof5Gforconsumers,next-generationnetworksholdsignificantpromiseforthedigitaleconomyandthetransformationofindustries.Operatorsarethereforeeagertocreatevalueintheenterprisemarket,supplyinghigh-performanceconnectivityand5G-basedservicestovarioussectors,includingagriculture,manufacturingandmining.InRussia,stakeholdersseethepotentialof5Gforusecasessuchaspublicsecuritysystems,smartcitiesandutilities,aswellasautonomousvehicleswhenemployedwithAItechnologies.8Veonhasstatedthatwhileitisnottargetingtheconsumer5Gsegmentovertheshortterm,itislookingtodeploy5Gprivatenetworksforenterprisecustomers.Thesenetworksallowenterprisestohavemorecontrolovertheirconnectivityandchanginglatency,coverage,edgeorsecurityrequirements.OfthoseRussianenterprisesthatrequirelocation-specificcoverage,threequartersareinterestedorhaveinvestedinaprivatenetwork–andover60%wouldprefertopartnerwithanoperatororvendorforthatventure.9PilotorcommercialprivatenetworkscurrentlyinoperationwilluseLTEconnectivityandspectrum,forexampleMegaFon’sprojectswiththeLebedinskiyandUdokanskayaMedminingcompanies.However,asdemonstratedbytheprivatenetworksdeployedbyMTSandEricssonforenergycorporationGazpromandautomotivemanufacturerKamaz,someare5G-ready,whichwouldallowforanupgradeinthefutureastheenterprise’sneedsorprocessesevolve.8.5GinRussia:alocalandglobalviewonthewayforward,GSMAIntelligence/AnalyticalCenterfortheGovernmentoftheRussianFederation/LTEUnion,20199.EnterpriseinFocusSurveyDashboard:understandingIoTpurchasingdecisions,GSMAIntelligence,2021Keytrendsshapingthedigitallandscape212.2Telcoofthefuture:revenuediversificationWithslowingsubscribergrowthandintensepricecompetitionacrosstheregion,mobileoperatorsareincreasing