世界银行-有效应对危机的适应性社会保护：独立评价小组对世界银行贡献的评价（方法文件）（英）-2023

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ApproachPaper

AdaptiveSocialProtectionforEffectiveCrisisResponse

IndependentEvaluationGroupEvaluationoftheWorldBank’sContribution

July24,2023

1.BackgroundandContext

1.1Interconnectedandoftendevastatingcovariateshocksareathreattohumandevelopment.Covariateshocksareshocksthataffectlargenumbersofpeopleorcommunitiesatonceandcanbenatural,economic,orpolitical.Occurrenceandthehumandevastationfromnaturaldisastershasincreasedoverthelast50years,andthenegativeimpactsofclimatechangeareexpectedtoexacerbatethistrend(Bowenetal.2020).Displacementreachedapost–WorldWarIIrecordhighof68.5millionforciblydisplacedpersonsin2019(WorldBank2019).Economicshocksareincreasinglyrecurrent:in2007–08,adramaticincreaseinfoodpricessentmillionsintopoverty(WorldBank2017);theCOVID-19pandemichaddevastatingeffectsonthelivesandlivelihoodsofthemostvulnerable;and,morerecently,theRussianinvasionofUkrainehasbeenhavingdireeffectsonthefoodsecurityofthepoorestandmostvulnerablepeopleinmanycountries(WorldBank2022b).

1.2Poorhouseholdsareparticularlyvulnerabletocovariateshocksbecausetheylackadequatecapacitytopreparefor,copewith,andadapttoshocks.Factorsthathamperpeople’spreparednessincludelimitedsavingsandassetstodrawonwhenashockoccurs,limitedornoaccesstopublic(socialprotection)andprivate(insurance)instruments,andlimitedaccesstoinformationontheirexposureandvulnerabilitytocovariateshockstoinformaction.Withoutadequatesavingsandaccesstosocialprotectionorprivateinsurance,householdsusuallyresorttonegativecopingstrategiessuchasremovingchildrenfromschooltoworkforextraincome,sellingproductiveassets,ortakinghigh-interestloans(delNinno,Coll-Black,andFallavier2016).Thelack

ofsavingsandsocialprotectionalsohindershouseholds’adaptationtocovariateshocks,giventhelackofappropriatemeanstoadjustlivelihoodsandassetstoreducevulnerability.

1.3Covariateshockscanalsoimpoverishvulnerablehouseholdswhentheircapacitytoprepare,cope,andadaptisoverwhelmed.Manyhouseholdsliveclosetothepovertyline,whichmakesthemespeciallyvulnerabletopovertyresultingfromevensmallvariancesinincomeandconsumption.Anestimated26millionpeoplefallintopovertyeveryyearbecauseofnaturaldisasters,especiallyfrequentfloodsanddrought

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(Hallegatteetal.2017).InSenegal,forinstance,45percentofpoorhouseholdsescapedpovertybetween2006and2011,but40percentofnonpoorhouseholdsfellintopovertythesameperiod(Dang,Lanjouw,andSwinkels2014).

1.4Covariateshocksvaryinmagnitude,speedofonset,predictability,andduration,

andthustheseaspectsshouldbeconsideredwhendesigningthemostappropriatesocialprotectionresponse.Covariateshocksvaryinmagnitudeandseverity,whichwillgeneratedifferentneedsamongaffectedpopulationsandhavedifferentimplicationsforthosemandatedtoaddressthem.Covariateshockscanbeprotracted(usuallyconflict);recurrent(repeatednaturalhazardssuchasdroughts,floods,orcropfailures);occasional;oronetime.Theycanalsobeshortterm(earthquakes),mediumterm(highfoodpricesandeconomicdownturns),andlongterm(civilwar;O’Brienetal.2018a).1Thus,thescaleofashockwilldeterminethenumberofpeopleaffected.Thelevelofurgencywilldeterminetheneedforspeedyaction,withlife-threateningeventsrequiringimmediateactiontosavelives.Requiredsupportmaybetemporaryormoreregularbecauseneedsmaycontinuetochangeovertime.Similarly,thephasingoftheshockalsohasbroadimplicationsforthesocialprotectionsector’sroleinrelationtoothers(becauseneedsmayevolveandcontinuetochangeovertime).

1.5Moreover,theneedsandchallengesthatvulnerableanddirectlyaffectedpopulationsfacewillhaveimplicationsforsocialprotectionsystems.Implicationsmayvary,forinstance,dependingonthefundingmadeavailable(forexample,size,speed,duration,andtheextentofconditionsattached);themixofstakeholdersinvolvedinrespondingandtheircoordination(orlackof)andthebroaderpoliticaleconomyofthesectorsinvolved;thepotentialtoleveragecapacityandsystemsfromdifferentsectors(forexample,earlywarningsystems);thefeasibilityofprovidingdifferentservices(forexample,extentofmarketdisruption,destructionofservicedeliveryinfrastructure,andsoon);therelevantlegalandpolicyframeworks(forexample,arefugeeresponsewillneedtorespectnationallegislationonthetopic),andsoon(TRANSFORM2020).

1.6Adaptivesocialprotection(ASP)buildsresiliencebyhelpingpoorandvulnerablehouseholdspreparefor,copewith,andadapttocovariateshocks.ASPprotectspoorandvulnerablehouseholds’well-beingbyensuringthattheydonotfallintopovertyorbecometrappedinpovertybecauseofthenegativeimpactsofcovariateshocks.Itdoessobybringingthesocialprotection,disasterriskmanagement(DRM),andclimatechangeadaptationsectorstogethertobuildtheresilienceofpoorandvulnerablepeopleinrelationtocovariateshocks(Bowenetal.2020).Consideringallthreesectorssimultaneouslywhenrespondingtocovariateshockscangainsynergies,giventhecommonalitiesandcomplementaritiesamongthem(Daviesetal.2008).

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2.AdaptiveSocialProtectioninWorldBankSupport

2.1TheASPagendaisdevelopingrapidlyandisacriticalpartoftheWorldBankGroup’sCrisisResponsePlatformforsystemstobetterrespondtoandprepareforcovariateshocks.ASPisanevolvingconceptbutnotanewone.TheWorldBankunderstandsASPasaspecificfocusareawithinsocialprotectionthatgoesbeyondreliefandrecoveryfromcovariateshockstofocusonpromotinghouseholdresilience.

2.2IncreasingtheresponsivenessofsocialprotectionprogramstoadapttoandmeetchangedneedsafterashockmaterializedandbuildhouseholdresiliencetocovariateshocksareclearobjectivesoftheWorldBank’sworkonASP.TheWorldBanklaunchedtheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgramin2014,aimingtoincreaseaccesstoeffectiveASPsystemsforpoorandvulnerablepopulationsinsixcountriesintheSahel(BurkinaFaso,Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegal).ThegoalofsupportingthedevelopmentofASPsystemsandprogramstohelpindividuals,households,communities,andsocietiesbuildresilience,equity,andopportunitieswasclearlyoutlinedintheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgramthenandhassincebeenstrengthened.The2018South-SouthLearningForum,BuildingResiliencethroughAdaptiveSocialProtection,outlinedanASPframeworkenhancingthefocusonenablingsocialprotectiontoaddresstheimpactsofalltypeofcovariateshocksonhouseholds.2ASPwasalreadycenteredaroundtwointerrelatedapproaches:buildingtheresilienceofthehouseholdsthataremostvulnerabletocovariateshocks,andincreasingtheresponsivenessofsocialprotectionprogramsafterashockhasoccurred.TheseapproacheswerelatercapturedintheWorldBank’s2020reportAdaptiveSocialProtection:BuildingResiliencetoShocksandfurtheroperationalizedinthedevelopmentandapplicationofthe2021StressTestTool,whichaimstoconductrapidappraisalsoftheadaptabilityofsocialprotectionsystemsandassesstheirreadinesstoscaleup.

2.3TheseobjectivesarealsoobservedintheevolutionoftheWorldBank’sstrategicapproachtosocialprotectionfromaprogram-focusedapproachtoasystem-basedapproachaimedatbuildingandstrengtheningsocialprotectionsystemsandequippingthembettertorespondtopovertyandtorisksandvulnerability.TheevolutionisevidentintheframingandevolutionofthepastthreestrategiesthathaveguidedtheWorldBank’sworkonsocialprotection,andinthearticulationofadefinedframeworkforASP,asdescribedinbox2.1.

2.4The2012–22SocialProtectionandLaborStrategyclearlyoutlinedmanyofthekeyASPfeatures,evenifitdidnotyetdescribethemassuch,thatwerethenarticulatedintheASPframework.Thestrategyencourages“systemicapproaches,”interventionscoordinatedacrossprogramsandresponsivetocrisesandshocks(WorldBank2012),andhighlightstheimportanceofcollaboration,coordination,and“policycoherence”

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amongsocialprotection,DRM,earlywarning,andclimatechangeadaptationapproaches(Kuriakoseetal.2012).Italsofocusesonstrengtheningnationalsystemsinthecontextofthewidespreadofnoncontributorycashtransferprogramsacrosstheworldandanincreaseduseofcashinhumanitarianresponses.Itrecognizesthatalthoughcashworkinggroupsservedascoordinationmechanismsbetweenhumanitarianactorsanddonorfundedprogramsinmanycountries,thelimitedgovernmentinvolvementcontributedtoanincreasedriskofsettingupparallelstructures(WorldBankGroup2016).Stronggovernmentleadershipwasincreasinglyrecognizedasfundamentaltoensuringtheintegrationandguidanceofthemultipleactorsforanadequateemergencyresponse.

Box2.1.EvolutionoftheWorldBank’sStrategicApproachtowardAdaptationinSocialProtection

2001–11:SocialProtectionSectorStrategy:FromSafetyNettoSpringboard.Thisstrategyadoptedanewsocialriskmanagementframeworkrecognizingthatallindividuals,households,andcommunitiesareexposedtomultiplerisksfromdifferentsourcesandidentifyingriskandvulnerabilityasmajordriversofpoverty(WorldBank2012).Vulnerabilityanalysiscomplementedthemoretraditionalpovertyanalysis,highlightingtheimportanceofamorefluidapproach—groundedinarangeofinstruments—toaddressrisks.Thestrategyaimedforsocialprotectionprogramstoprovidepoorpeoplewiththecapacitytoclimboutofpoverty(thatis,thespringboard).Guidedbythisstrategy,theWorldBanksupportevolvedfromaproject-focusedapproachthatemphasizeddeliveringsocialassistancebenefitstowardhelpingcountriesbuildsocialprotectionsystemsandinstitutionstorespondbettertopoverty,risk,andvulnerability(WorldBank2011).

2012–22:Resilience,Equity,andOpportunity:TheWorldBank’sSocialProtectionandLaborStrategy2012–2022.Thisstrategybuiltonthesocialriskmanagementconceptualframeworkandaimedtohelpclientcountriesmovefromfragmentedprogramapproachestomoreharmonizedsystemsforsocialprotectionandlabor.Thestrategypromoted“systemicapproaches”toSMART(synchronized,measurable,affordable,responsive,transparentandaccountable)socialprotectionandlabor,includingprogramsthatweresynchronized;monitored,evaluated,andadapted;affordable;responsivetocrisesandshocks;andtransparentandaccountable.DrawingfromthelessonsfromthepreviousstrategyandtheIndependentEvaluationGroup’sevaluation(WorldBank2011),thisstrategyidentifiedfourkeyareasforimprovement:astrongerfocusonsolutionstobuildcoherentandcountry-appropriateportfoliossupportingsocialprotectionsystemsthatprotectpeoplefrommultiplerisks;increasedengagementinlower-incomecountries,withafocusonhelpingthesecountriesputtheappropriatebuildingblocksinplacetowardtheirsocialprotectiongoals;theroleofjobsandenhancedproductivityaskeypathwaystoopportunity;andthecentralroleofevidence-drivensocialprotectionpractice.

2020:AdaptiveSocialProtection:BuildingResiliencetoShocks.TheWorldBank’sadaptivesocialprotectionframeworkpromoteskeyactionsthatbuildoninvestmentsinroutinesystemstrengtheningbutgobeyondbusinessasusual.Theadaptivesocialprotectionframeworkpromotesstrategicinvestmentsinadaptiveelementsinfourofthebuildingblocksofanysocialprotectionsystem:programs,dataandinformation,financeandinstitutionalarrangements,and

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partnerships.Overthelongterm,strategicinvestmentsinadaptiveelementswithinthesefourbuildingblockscanincreasehouseholdresiliencetocovariateshocks,acceleratehumancapitalaccumulation,andreducepovertyandeconomicimpactsfromshocks(Bowenetal.2020).

2022:ChartingaCourseTowardsUniversalSocialProtection:Resilience,Equity,andOpportunityforAll.AlsoknownastheSocialProtectionandJobsCompass,thisstrategyacknowledgeshowseveralglobalissuessuchasclimatechange,pandemics,fragilityandconflict,andtechnologicalinnovationarereshapingeconomiesandsocieties.Italsostressestheirnegativeimpactsonwell-beingandpovertyandthereforetheimplicationsforhowcountriesorganizetheirsocialprotectionsystems(WorldBank2022a).ThevisionofuniversalsocialprotectionisattheheartoftheCompass.Toachieveit,theCompassoutlinesfivestrategicpriorities:(i)buildstrongfoundationalsocialprotectionsystems;(ii)increasecoverageandpromotegreaterinclusion(coveragegap);(iii)buildmoreresilient,adaptive,anddynamicprogramming(flexibilitygap);(iv)increasemoreeffectiveeconomicinclusionandlaborsystems(opportunitygap);and(v)createmorefiscalspaceforuniversalsocialprotection(fiscalgap).

Source:IndependentEvaluationGroup,basedonWorldBank2001,2012,and2022a.

2.4Socialprotectionsystemsplayafundamentalroleinaddressingcovariate

shocks,butmoreinvestmentsinadaptationareneededforbetterpreparednessandresponse.Countrieswhoseroutinesocialprotectionsystemsprovidehighcoveragehaveanintrinsiccushionfromcovariateshocks,asCOVID-19hasshownrecently.3AcrucialstartingpointforanyASPsystemisbuildingandstrengtheningstrongroutinesocialprotectionsystemswiththeaimofensuringincreasedcoverageovertime,adequacy,comprehensiveness,andsustainabilityacrossarangeofprogramsatthepolicy,programmatic,anddeliverychainlevels.Moreover,theabilitytosustainroutinebenefitdeliveryamidcovariateshocksisanessentialfeatureofanASPsystem.Strategicinvestmentsinadaptiveelementsareneededinroutinesocialassistance,socialinsurance,andlabormarketprogramsalongthepre-andpostshockcontinuumtoprovidemuch-neededincomesupportduringacrisisoritsimmediateaftermath.Programsneedtobepreparedandabletorespondandexpandfastenoughtoprotectboththoseaffecteddirectlyandthemostvulnerable,whichmayimplyflexing,forexample,surgecapacity,alternatedeliverymethods,andsoon.4Itmayalsoimplyminordesigntweakstoincorporateafocusoncovariateshocks,completeadaptationstosupportbetterresponse,andinvestmentsinrisk-informedtargetingapproachestoidentifyat-riskhouseholds.

2.5Informationonhouseholds’vulnerabilitytocovariateshocksandtheircapacitytocopeandrecoverisessentialforthedesignandimplementationofeffectiveASPprograms.ForASPtocoverat-riskpopulations,socialregistriesneedtoexpandintoandwithinhigh-riskareas,updatinginformationinthoseareasmorefrequentlyandincludingvariablesrelatedtohouseholdvulnerabilitytocovariateshocks.Thismayimplystrengtheninglinkswithinformationsystemsthataretypicallydisconnectedfromthesocialprotectionsector,suchasDRMinformationsystems.Moreinvestmentsmay

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beneededincountries’capacitytoassessvulnerabilitybeforeandaftercovariateshocksandtoactonearlywarninginformation.

2.6Investmentsinadequateriskfinancingandrisklayering,ensuringappropriateinstitutionalarrangements,andfosteringstrategicpartnershipsarecriticaltothesustainabilityofASPsystems.Adequateplanningforriskfinancingrequiresgovernmentstodevelopriskfinancingstrategiesthatenablefundingtoflowifacovariateshockoccursandthusmobilizeafasterresponse.Investmentssupportingadequateinstitutionalarrangementsandstrengtheningpartnershipsandcollaborationacrosssectorscancontributetomuch-neededcoordinationamongthemyriadactorsinvolvedinaneffectivepreparationandresponsetocovariateshocks.Theevaluationtheoryofchangeinsection4providesmoredetailsabouttheseadaptiveelements.

2.7Recognizingthegrowingimpactofthemultipleoverlappingcrisesaffectingtheworld,theBankGroupadoptedaGlobalCrisisResponseFrameworkin2022thatreinforcestheimportanceofadditionalinvestmentsinASP.TheframeworkhasguidedtheBankGroup’soperationalresponsesinceApril2022andcontinuesthroughJune2023,deployingUS$170billiontosupportdevelopingcountriestonavigatetheseunprecedentedcrises(WorldBank2022b).BuildingonlessonslearnedfromtheCOVID-

19responseandpastfoodcrises,theframeworkrestsonfourinterconnectedpillarscombiningsupporttocrisisresponseandlong-termdevelopment:

•Respondingtofoodinsecuritythroughsupportingproduction,facilitatingtrade,supportingthevulnerable,andinvestinginsustainablefoodsystems;

•Protectingpeopleandpreservingjobstohelpmitigatethemedium-tolong-termimpactsofcrises;

•Strengtheningresiliencebyidentifyingandsupportingpathstobuildlong-termresilience;

•Strengtheningpolicies,institutions,andinvestmentsforrebuildingbettertouselong-termpoliciestoimprovedevelopmentoutcomes.

3.EvaluationPurpose

3.1Thepurposeofthisevaluationistwofold:(i)assesswhetherWorldBanksupport

forsocialprotectionhasincorporatedadaptiveelementsovertime,and(ii)assesshoweffectivetheWorldBankhasbeenathelpingclientcountriesmaketheirsocialprotectionsystemsmoreadaptive.

3.2Assessingadaptivenessinsocialprotectionovertimerespondstothegreaterfocusonbetterpreparedness,inclusionofadaptivedesignelements,andasystem

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strengtheningapproachasoutlinedinWorldBank(2022a)—thecurrentstrategyguidingthefutureworkoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPractice(GP)—andtheGlobalCrisisResponseFramework.Giventheunpredictabilityofcrises,theirdynamicnature,andthediversityofimpactsacrossdifferentcountries,theframeworkdemandsaflexible,adaptiveresultsapproach.WorldBankoperationsareexpectedtofocusonupgradingsystemstomakethemlessvulnerabletocrises,enhancecrisispreparednessemergencyresponseplanningtosavelivesandlivelihoods,andenablesustainablepublicservices(WorldBank2022b).

3.3TheevaluationisintendedtopromotelearningemergingfromWorldBankoperationsandclientcountries’policyresponsestorecentcovariateshocks,includingCOVID-19,focusingonthekeyinvestmentsinadaptiveelementsneededforamoreeffectivesocialprotectionresponse.Theevaluationaimstoprovideindependentandevidence-basedfeedbackontheachievementsandchallengesoftranslatingtheASPframeworkintoeffectiveWorldBanksupportandadviceandintoclientcountries’policies,withspecialemphasisontheframework’susefulnessindifferentcountrysettings.Todoso,theevaluationwillreviewexperiencesacrossawiderangeofcontextsonhowtheASPframeworkisused,anditwillassesswhetherandhowtheframeworkinfluenceskeychangesinsocialprotectionsystemsinclientcountriestomakethemmoreadaptive.ItwillalsoreviewtheusefulnessofthekeyadaptiveelementsoutlinedintheASPframeworkacrossavarietyofcovariateshocks,countrysettings,andsocialprotectionmaturitylevels.

3.4Theevaluationwillcontributetotheuseofevidence-basedapproachestomaximizedevelopmentimpactinfuturecrisisresponses.TheresultswillinformWorldBankmanagementandtheBoardofExecutiveDirectorsontherelevanceandeffectivenessofSocialProtectionandJobssupporttothemostrecentcrises.InthecurrentcontextofpolycrisesdesignASPsystemstoidentifyexantevulnerablehouseholds,improveprotectionofthemostvulnerableifashockoccurs,andstrengthenthecrisisresponsecoordinationofkeyactorsforacoherentresponseisofutmostimportance(BastagliandLowe2021;Packardetal.2019).COVID-19exposedstructuralgapsandlimitationsinroutinesocialprotectionsystems,suchashowtorespondquicklytovulnerablepopulationsthatfellintopovertybecauseofthecrisis.Invisibility

andlackofinformationoncertainvulnerablegroups(suchasinformalworkersinurbansettings)wasacommonbarriertoadequatepolicyresponse(BastagliandLowe2021).TheCOVID-19responseexperienceandexperiencesfromotherrecentcrisesoffervaluableinsightstoconsiderwhendesigningASPsupportforthewayforwardtoensurebetterpreparednessfordynamiccrises(Gentilini2022).TheevaluationaimstocontributetotheevidenceontheseexperiencestoinformfutureWorldBankfinancingoperationsandadvisoryservicesandcountrypolicyresponses.

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4.TheoryofChangeandEvaluationQuestions

TheoryofChange

4.1ThisevaluationusesatheoryofchangetoguideitsunderstandingoftheWorldBank’scontributiontomakingsocialprotectionsystemsmoreadaptiveinclientcountries(figure4.1).WedevelopedthetheoryofchangebasedonareviewoftheWorldBank’sASPframework(Bowenetal.2020),relevantexternalliterature,andconsultationswithsocialprotectionexperts.WedesignedtheevaluationquestionsandmethodsweproposeinthisApproachPapertotestmanyofthecausalassumptionsembeddedinthistheoryofchange.

4.2Countryclients’uptakeofASPinvolvesmanyfactors,someofwhichmaybeinfluencedbyWorldBanksupport.Asshownintheblueboxesinfigure4.1,countrycharacteristicssuchastheexistenceofstrongandhighlyinstitutionalizedprograms,thecapacityandshockresponsivenessofsocialprotectioninfrastructure,andthenatureandcoverageofsocialprotectioninformationsystemsmayaffecttheuptakeofASP.Moreover,socialprotectiondeliverysystemsevolveovertime,dosoinanonlinearfashion,andareaffectedbythestartingpoint(Lindertetal.2020).Widercountrycharacteristicsbeyondtherealmofsocialprotection—suchastherecurrenceofcovariateshocks,thepresenceofcomprehensiveidentificationsystems,andtheavailabilityoffiscalspace—alsoconstitutekeyfactorsaffectingclients’decisiontoinvestinASPelements.TheWorldBankusesitsadvisoryservicesandanalytics(ASA)initspolicydialogueandconveningtoraisecountryclients’awarenessoftheirvulnerabilitytocovariateshocksandhowtheycanmitigatetheirimpactsthroughincorporatingadaptiveelementsintotheirsocialprotectionsystems.WorldBankcorporateprioritiesguidetheresponsetocovariateshocks(forexample,theGlobalCrisisResponseFramework),providefinancingandcanfacilitateeffectivecoordinationacrosspractices(forexample,SocialProtectionandJobscoordinationwiththeUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resilience,andLandGPforDRM).

4.3Tofosterbetterpreparedness,coping,andadaptationtocovariateshocks,theWorldBanksupportsclientsthroughstrategicinvestmentsinadaptiveelementswithinthefourbuildingblocksofsocialprotectionsystems.TheorganizingframeworkforASPthatguidesWorldBankfinancingandadvisoryservicessupportiscomposedoffourbuildingblocks:programs,dataandinformationsystems,financeandinstitutionalarrangements,andpartnerships.Theredboxesinfigure4.1showtheprioritiesandcoreinvestmentsinadaptiveelementswithineachbuildingblockthatsupportASPdesignandimplementation.Theseadaptiveelementsgobeyondthoseforregularsocialprotectionsystems,aimingatbuildinghouseholdresiliencetocovariateshocks.

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•Strengthenedprograms.Socialprotectionprogramsbecomeadaptivewhenthey

(i)adjusttargetingapproachestointegratecovariateshockriskandhouseholdvulnerabilityintoeligibilitycriteriaandbeneficiaryselection,fine-tuningbenefitsandservicestoenhanceresilience-buildingoutcomesamongselectedhouseholds;(ii)incorporatedesignelementstosupportpreparedness,suchasdisseminatingriskinformationwithinat-riskcommunitiesandpromotingincreasedsavingsandfinancialinclusionamongbeneficiaryhouseholds;and(iii)incorporateshock-responsivecapacitythroughdesigntweaks,verticalorhorizontalexpansions,andsupportingtheuseofpiggybackingshockresponsesonalreadyexistingprograms.

•Increaseddataandinformation.ASPrequiresdetailedinformationandanalysestoimproveunderstandingofcovariateshockriskandvulnerabilityasabasisforprogramdesignandimplementation.Criticalinformationincludesthetypeofcovariateshockstowhichacountrymaybevulnerable,populationsandassetsaffectedbycovariateshocks,frequencyandlocationofcovariateshocks,populationsmostinneedofassistance,andtheextentofassistancerequired.AneffectiveASPsystemwilldrawonDRMan