化学行业的分析报告 (英文版)

化学行业的分析报告(英文版)ThechangingfaceofEuropeChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU15OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayersinCEEandCISConclusionContentsA.ThechangingfaceofEurope%ofEU25France,Germany,ItalyandBenelux:Sixwealthycorecountriesstarteconomicintegrationprocessin19571.1EU6(1957)**2003data>Europe'scorecountrieshadsluggishgrowthoverthelasttenyears:Averagegrowth1.3%p.a.inGermany,1.7%inFrance,2.5%NetherlandsGDP/capita[USD]28,608118.0%75.5%%ofUSPopulation[m]22750.0%78.0%GDP[USDbn]6,49458.9%59.0%Denmark,IrelandandtheUnitedKingdom:Firstacces-sionroundafter16yearsincreaseseconomicpower1.2EU9(1973)**2003data>AsaresultofEUintegration,Ireland'seconomicgrowthhasbeenout-standinglyhighoverthepasttenyears:7.6%p.a.(DK2.1%,UK2.8%)Population[m]29765.0%102.0%GDP/capita[USD]29,141120.2%76.9%GDP[USDbn]8,65578.5%78.8%%ofEU25%ofUSGreece:ApoorercountryjoinstheEuropeanUnionin1981–firstdiscussionsaboutdilution1.3EU10(1981)**2003data>Greecenowhashighaveragegrowthrates(3.8%p.a.from1995-2004)–partlyduetoEuropeanmoneyfromstructural/regionalfundsGDP[USDbn]8,82780.0%80.3%Population[m]30867.7%106.2%GDP/capita[USD]28,659118.3%75.6%%ofEU25%ofUSSpainandPortugal:Accessionoftwolessdeveloped

southerncountriesreducesEU'saveragewealth1.4EU12(1986)**2003data>Today,thesoutherncountriescontributetoEUgrowth:Spain(3.3%p.a.since1995)andPortugal(2.4%p.a.)achievedhighaveragegrowthratesGDP[USDbn]9,81689.0%89.3%Population[m]35978.9%123.0%112.8%72.2%GDP/capita[USD]27,343%ofEU25%ofUSGDP[USDbn]11,028100.4%Population[m]455156.0%EasternEurope,MaltaandCyprus:ThebiggestroundofenlargementeverchangesthefaceofEurope1.2EU25(2004)**2003data>GDPgrowthratesofupto6.5%p.a.inCEE(average4.4%p.a.since'95)> But:EnlargementisabigchallengeforEuropeanUniontocreatewealthGDP/capita[USD]24,23764.0%%ofUS50yearsofenlargement:ComparedtotheUS,theEUhasgainedsizeattheexpenseofaveragewealth>Today,Europe'sGDPpercapitaisonlyabouttwo-thirdsthatoftheUS–intermsoftotalGDP,botheconomiesarenowcomparableEUvs.US*[US=100%]59.077.580.389.395.9100.478.0102.0106.2123.8130.5156.075.576.975.672.273.064.01957EU61973EU91981EU101986EU121995EU152004EU25GDPInhabitantsGDPpercapitaUS=100*basedon2003data1.3Wealthgap:Tenyearsago,thenorthoftheEuropeanUnionwasrichandthesouthwaspoor2.1>SouthgainedwealthinEU:From34.4%ofEU-9(1986)to59.8%today1995:Gapbetweennorthandsouth*1995*2003data**EU12***Portugal,Spain,GreeceGDP

[USDbn]Unemployment

[%]Population

[m]SOUTH***NORTH**1,1619,37313.49.262319RATIO9:1GDPpercapita

[USD]18,72629,3833:22:35:17,42927,6204:1Today,thegapisbetweeneastandwest–GDPpercapitaintheEU15isfourtimeshigherthaninEU102.22004:Gapbetweeneastandwest>EUsupportwillhelpEU10economicdevelopmenttoreachEU15wealth2003EU10EU1549310,53410.58.574381RATIO21:14:55:1GDP

[USDbn]Unemployment

[%]Population

[m]GDPpercapita

[USD]EU25vs.USvs.Asia:EnlargedEUisastillpowerful,buttheslowestgrowingeconomicregionintheworld3.>Opportunity:TennewstatesgivetheEUmomentumtoincreasegrowthECONOMICPOWER[GDP,USDbn]Comparativeindicators2003POPULATION[m]WEALTH[GDPpercapita,USD]GROWTH

[avg.GDPgrowth1999-2003,%]10,9882903.311,0284552.3USEU25ASIA**AggregateddataforJapan,China,ASEAN8,4581,9474.837,89024,23712,058B.Challengesandopportunitiesofenlargementfor

EU15Eastwardenlargemententailsthreatsandopportunitiesforeconomies,companies,andgovernmentsEconomiesUnitlaborcostadvantagesinEU10challengeexistingvaluecreationstructuresinEU15,butalsooffer

momentumforstructuralchange/innovationinEU15CompaniesCompetitioninEU15aswellasinEU10isincreasing,

butalsonewsales,investment,growthandrelocationopportunitiesforEU15companiesinEasternEuropeGovernmentsExistinginstitutionalsetupsinEU15arechallengedbylowertaxes/contributionsandhigherflexibilityinEU10,butalsomomentumforpoliticalchange>EffectsofenlargementonmacroeconomicandmicroeconomiclevelsMacroeconomicthreats:PressureonEU15labormarketsandcompetitionforbestinstitutionalsetupLowwage-competition/unemploymentthreatsMigration(upto3.8mpeoplefromCEEwillmovetotheEU15)Offshoring(e.g.830,000peopleinCEEemployedbyGermanfirmsin2004)Lowtax/socialcontributionscompetitionAlso:Lessregulation(e.g.IMDbureaucracyindex:Estoniaranked9th,UKranked33rd)Financialburden(EUbudget)Costofenlargement(2004-2006):

49bnEUR>Differences:Countrieswithhighdegreeofregulation,geographical proximitytoCEEandnetcontributorstoEUbudgetaremoreaffected1.139,019,015,00,017,415,08,512,5GERPOLLITESTTaxesContributionsCORPORATETAXES[%]/SOCIALCONTRIBUTIONS2004[%ofGDP]Macroeconomicopportunities:Highergrowthmomen-tumforstructural/institutionalchangeandinnovationEnhancedgrowthineastandwestEU15benefitsfrombacklogofdemand

inCEENewmomentumin'NewEurope'throughincreasedtrade/know-howMomentumforstructuralchange/innovationLabor-intensive/lowvaluecreationindustries/products

nolonger

competitiveinEU15Structuralchangetowardshigh-techgoodsandservicestheonlychoicefor'OldEurope'

(->growth/wealth)MomentumforinstitutionalchangeRegulations,taxes,subsidies,flexiblemarkets>EUenlargementhelpspolicymakersbringaboutnecessarybutoften unpopularstructuralreformsintheirrespectivecountries1.2CEE8+1.3-2.1

p.a.2005-09EU15+0.5-0.7cum.2000-09Source:EUCommissionIMPACTOF2004ENLARGEMENTONGDPGROWTH[%]Microeconomicopportunities:CEEoffersnewmarketsandgrowth/investment/offshoringopportunities>LaborcostsinCEEwillremainattractiveforatleast30moreyears2.2200120102020203039.466.3POL42.467.9EST61.478.5CZR71.584.1SLO100EU15Newmarketsforinfrastructure,capitalandconsumergoods75mnewconsumerswithincreasing

purchasingpowerforconsumergoodsHighdemandformodernizedinfrastructure

andcapitalgoodsNewgrowthandinvestmentopportunitiesPrivatizationofstate-ownedcompaniesAcquisition/restructuringofEU10enterprisesLowunitcoststhroughoffshoringSetupofownproductionfacilitiesOutsourcingoflabor-intensiveproductionLowertaxesandsocialcontributionsCONVERGENCEINPERCAPITAINCOME[index,EU15=100]Resultof2004enlargement:NewEuropeandivisionoflaborbasedonregionalcomparativeadvantagesRELATIVEABUNDANCE

OFCAPITALANDTECHNOLOGYWESTERNEUROPE:Capital/knowledge-intensiveeconomiesEASTERNEUROPE:Labor-intensiveeconomiesRELATIVEABUNDANCE

OFLABORAT

LOWCOSTS3.>Freeexchangeofgoodsandservices,financialandhumancapitalwill allowEUtocompeteheadtoheadwiththeUnitedStatesandAsia96.2109.8117.297.7121.1132.6134.774.81999200020012002=ImportsfromCEE=ExportstoCEEBRAINBRAINTRADERELATIONSBETWEENEU15ANDCEE[EURbn]MajorindustrialsectorsarealreadyreapingthebenefitsofthenewEuropeandivisionoflaborthroughFDIs4.LeadingsectorsintermsofFDI

inEasternEurope=%ofallextra-EU15flows1997199819992000200120026.09.812.119.916.35.54.53.94.912.416.16.3>Alsochemicalfirmshavemovedeastwardsinsearchofnewmarkets...

AUTOMOTIVE

FINANCIAL

SERVICESFOODTELECOMS26.9%ofallGermanFDIflowsgotoCEEEU15FDIINCEE1997-2002[EURbn]C.OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayers

inCEEandCISChemicalindustryinCEE/CIS:Stillsmallinsizebutgrowingat2.5timesthespeedofWesternEuropeChemicaloutputgrowth2004-2014[Ø%p.a.]> Chemicalrevenuesof34.3bnUSDinEasternEurope(CEE23.5bnUSD,

CIS10.8bnUSD)arecomparableinsizetoIrelandortheNetherlands8.57.55.34.94.22.21.91.2INDCHNCEECISMiddleEastEU15JPNNAFTA2.35.31.60.83.633.011.027.8Globalshare[%]1.12345CEEvs.CIS:Basicstructuraldifferencesinchemicals–despiteofsimilarlygoodgrowthperspectives2.> Verydifferent(marketentry)strategiesnecessaryforCEEandCIS!!!1) Poland,CzechRepublic,Romania, Hungary,Slovakia,Bulgaria2) Russia,Ukraine,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan,Georgia,MoldovaCEE1)CIS2)PLAYERS/ACTIVITIESLocal/regionalplayersproducingvalue-addedchemicalsBigprivateoil/gascompaniesproducing

mainlypetrochemicalsandcommoditiesCOMPETI-

TIVENESSDomesticallybutnotyetgloballycom-petitiveproduction/assetfootprintUncompetitiveproduction/logistics,

butcompetitiverawmaterials/feedstockTRADEHighimportsofhigh-/medium-valuechemicals,lowlevelofexportsHighpetrochemicalexports,highconsumerchemicalsimportsDEGREEOFPRIVATIZATIONState-owned/-controlledcompaniesstilldominantPrivatizationofRussianplayerslargelycompleted(Renationalization?)ACTIVITIES

OFWESTERN

COMPANIESGreenfieldinvestmentsandJVsinconsumer-drivensegmentsDemand-drivenGreenfieldandsupply-drivenBrownfieldinvestments/JVsCompetitiveness:CEEassetscompetitivedomestically–CISassetsnot,butcompetitiverawmaterials2.2ASSETS:Productionsitesarecompetitive(technology,scale)–butonlyondomesticmarketsExle(AmmoniumnitrateproductioninPulawy,Poland):Capacity 700ktMinimumdomesticsize 550ktMinimumglobalsize1,000ktLABORPRODUCTIVITY:Uncompetitivevs.EU15industry–turnoverperemployeeat30%ofEU15levelin2003Significantincreases:Upfrom19%in1995ASSETS:Uncompetitiveproductionsites,butcompetitiverawmaterialsExle:Methanolandderivatives(NaturalgasatMiddleEasterncosts

of60-75cents/MBTU)FullyfledgedcombinatesanddislocationofprocesschainsUncompetitivelogisticscostsLABORPRODUCTIVITY:Uncompetitivevs.EU15industry–turnoverperemployeeonlyat3%ofEU15levelin2003Stagnatingorevendecreasing:In1995CISproductivitylevelwas4%ofEU15> CEEslowlycatchesupwithEU15efficiency–unsolvedproblemsinCISCEECISTrade:HighlevelofimportsinbothCEEandCIS–CISwithsignificantexportsofmainlycommodities2.3HIGHIMPORTS:16.6bnUSDSpecialty/finechemicalspolymersConsumerchemicalsLOWEXPORTS:5.0bnUSDPolymers

PetrochemicalsDOMESTICPRODUCTIONcovers53%

ofdomesticdemandof35.1bnUSDHIGHIMPORTS:8.1bnUSDConsumerchemicalsHIGHEXPORTS:7.0bnUSDAgrochemicals/fertilizersRawmaterial-basedchemicalsGas-basedchemicalsDOMESTICPRODUCTIONcovers32%

ofdomesticdemandof11.9bnUSD> Increasinghigh-valueaddedimportsinCEE/CISinthecomingyears– likelytobefollowedbyimportsubstitutioninternationalinvestmentsCEE*CIS**)2002/2003dataDegreeofprivatization:MostplayersinCISareinprivatehandstoday–CEEstilllargelystate-owned2.4EXTENTOFPRIVATIZATION:OnlyinHungary/Slovakiaprivatizationhasbeencompleted,inPoland/CzechRepublicthestatestillholdsmajorsharesRECENTDEVELOPMENTSPoland:CIECHgrouppartiallyprivatizedinSeptember2004(IPO)CzechRepublic:Unipetrolsold63%toPKN–butsignificantrestructuringandfurtherownershipchangesareexpectedOUTLOOK:PrivatizedCEEplayerswillenhancetheirimpactviaM&AsinCEEEXTENTOFPRIVATIZATION:InRussia,morethan96%ofthetop400chemicalfirmsareprivatized,inrestofCISongoingprocessRECENTDEVELOPMENTSRussia:JointventureswithWestern

companies,e.g.GazpromwithSiburandNizhnekamskneftekhimwithBASFOngoingactivitiesalsoinrestofCIS:IntheUkraineaprivatizationprogramoflargeenterpriseshasjustbeenapprovedOUTLOOK:Technology-andknow-how-basedinputofWesterncompanieswillincrease> Privatization/restructuringisstillanissueinPolandandtheCzech Republic–companiesinCISaremoreopenforpartnership/know-howCEECISLikelyfuturedevelopmentsinCIS:Largeplayerswinagainstsmallones–alsoopportunitiesforEUfirms3.2Biggas-oil-drivenandWesterncom-panieswillgainmomentumagainstSMEsManySMEsarelikelytodisappear

(weakfinancialresources,limitedmarketingpower,lackofR&D,uncompetitivepriceposition,etc.)Gas-/oil-basedandselectedrawmaterial-basedcompanieswillexpandtheirchemicalsportfoliodownstreamOftenincooperationwithinternationalpartnersOpenforFDIsParticipateinrawmaterial/supplyadvantagebytradingintechnologyandprocessknow-howandcapitalCooperatewithbigoil/gasandrawmaterial