基于战略的报表分析新思维报表分析的逻辑切入点120

基于战略的报表分析新思维报表分析的逻辑切入点120——相关参考书隆重推荐：《财务报表分析：理论·框架·方法与案例》主编：黄世忠（国家会计学院副院长），中国财经出版社2007年版，系列丛书：国家会计学院会计硕士专业学位（MPAcc）系列教材Date2XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大逻辑切入点盈利质量资产质量现金流量收入质量利润质量毛利率高低成长性退出壁垒潜在损失经营现金流量自由现金流量波动性资产结构现金含量”造血“功能还本付息研发营销报表分析三大逻辑切入点Date3XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点案例：

——M公司与GFC公司哪个更有竞争优势？本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系研讨要点与目的Date4XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市场表现Date5XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市值(Capitalization)Date6XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute四大核心问题问题1做大=做强？？问题2M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？问题3M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？问题4如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？

考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题Date7XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模--雇员人数Date8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模--资产总额Date9XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模—销售收入Date10XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模—CFFOA(现金流量)Date11XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市值(Capitalization)Date12XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute财务实力—净资产Date13XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营绩效—净利润Date14XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute财务数据：GFCv.sM(2002)

项目名称

GFC公司

M公司

倍数GFC合计M雇员人数36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45资产总额3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11销售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44现金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股东权益68564085325400.99净利润17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.86新经济与旧经济的反差

行业层面的解释——市盈率分析Date15XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利质量现金流量资产质量

财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点Date16XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大逻辑切入点盈利质量资产质量现金流量收入质量利润质量毛利率高低成长性退出壁垒潜在损失经营现金流量自由现金流量波动性资产结构现金含量”造血“功能还本付息研发营销报表分析三大逻辑切入点Date17XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利质量收入质量利润质量毛利率成长性波动性研发营销

盈利质量分析方法Date18XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入质量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999197169016011482200023017391698160320012531691160915402002284177316231474200332218551642136420043681935170914212005398192617711498200644320731601151620075111881172515262008604

Date19XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入质量(QualityofRevenue)Date20XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

利润质量(QualityofProfit)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-25402008177

Date21XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute利润质量(QualityofProfit)Date22XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteRivalAmountDateTimeWarner$750mMay2003SunMicro$1.95bApril2004Novell$536mNov.2004B$60mMarch2005Gateway$150mApril2005IBM$775mJune2005Total$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement

反垄断诉讼费用

(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)Date23XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute项目名称GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005销售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽车1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83净利润27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽车-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a经营业绩:2005vs.2004Date24XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006:艰难的转折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360GMFordDCXQ14.45-11.872.99Q2-33.79-2.5418.10Q3-1.15-58.005.51Q4+9.50-51.645.67Total-20.99-124.0532.272007:-$3872008Q3:-$213SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-202008Q3-$87Date25XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)会计年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%2008

80.8%Date26XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteM公司的成本费用结构3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,ExtinguishDate27XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteR&D占销售收入比重2006年2248家企业集团R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%Date28XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute成本结构与风险传导资产质量资产结构现金含量退出壁垒经营风险财务弹性潜在损失

资产质量分析方法技术风险Date29XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2001)Date30XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2002)Date31XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2003)Date32XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2004)Date33XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2005)Date34XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

如何解释市净率?13.15.55.83.40.67Date35XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

品牌价值Date36XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

被忽略的“软资产”Coca-ColaMicrosoft品牌价值资产总额股东权益品牌价值资产总额股东权益20016902241146515884732002696244118641676522200370527314165279664920046743141596149447482005675294164599708482Date37XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute何为风险?Riskisuncertainty风险的类别经济风险(EconomicRisk)环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境）市场风险（市场结构、企业竞争优势）经营风险（OperationalRisk)固定成本与变动成本比例财务风险（FinancialRisk)资本结构与金融市场利率营业风险BusinessRisk利润易变性ProfitVolatility传导传导成本结构与风险传导Date38XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute+5%+14%+18%

-5%-14%-18%

经济风险

经营风险

营业风险

财务风险经济状况政治社会环境销售收入息税前利润税后利润市场结构竞争优势

风险的传导与放大Date39XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

XYZ公司风险评估测算表预期数

销售收入+5%

销售收入-5%销售收入50,000+5%52,500-5%47,500减:变动成本19,000+5%19,950-5%18,050

固定成本20,0000%20,0000%20,000息税前利润11,000+14%12,550-14%9,450减:固定利息支出2,5000%2,5000%2,500税前利润8,500+18%10,050-18%6,950减:所得税2,125+18%2,513-18%1,738税后利润6,375+18%7,537-18%5,212

风险传导放大效应Date40XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute现金流量经营现金流量自由现金流量“造血”功能还本付息

现金流量分析方法Date41XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute现金流量表的“妙用”经营活动产生的现金流量投资活动产生的现金流量筹资活动产生的现金流量造血功能抽血功能输血功能现金流量表—经常被忽略的报表Date42XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute广义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力狭义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出-现金股利用于评估企业的财务弹性利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求发展的能力CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlowDate43XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute现金流量趋势:G(12vs.73)200420052006FCF+53-250-197Interest120158170Principal4526461419162007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:1844Date44XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2005.12.13Cut30,000jobsClose9facilitiesBy2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowestin23yearsGM-不断恶化的信用等级Date45XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

GMvs.Toyota2008.11.7GM:27TM:1052Date46XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute谁是老大?Date47XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.1millionofemployeescovered,pensionandhealthcareliabilitytotaled$170b,currentShortage$54bGM-不堪重负的医疗与退休债务Date48XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20052004GMToyotaGMToyotaHealthCare$1,850

$200$1,528$201Pension$700$50$695$50Total$2,550$250$2,223$251GAP:$2,300GAP:$1,972医疗及退休费用对制造成本的影响Date49XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute汽车巨头盈利能力差异Date50XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteS&PloweredFord’sratingtoB+onJune27,2006现金流量趋势:F(69vs.63)2007CF-O:171CF-CE:60Date51XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006年—F公司的生死之年?WayForwardTurnaroundProgram1.CutNorthAmericaWhite-collarcostsby10%2.Eliminateupto30,000Hourlyjobsandclose14Plantsby20122006.9.15Buyoutall75,000NorthAmericanfactoryworkers$140,000perworkerTotal$10.5billionDate52XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

现金流量趋势:C2007CF-O:191CF-CE:164Date53XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

现金流量趋势:MDate54XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChildrenStarsDogsCashCows市场成长性市场占有率高低高

BytheBostonConsultingGroupin1968

波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)Date55XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteStars(现金明星)

–PLC处于高速成长阶段，市场占有率很高且仍呈上升趋势–销售收入和现金流量有很高的增长潜力–获利丰厚，但现金流量不很充裕波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)Date56XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCashCows(现金奶牛)市场占有率很高PLC处于成熟阶段产品维持成本较低现金性收入很高经营性现金流量十分充裕波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)Date57XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteDogs(现金瘦狗)PLC处于衰退阶段市场占有率很低或不断下降