EY+能源资源与转型加速报告-英

If

every

energy

transitionis

different,

which

coursewill

accelerate

yours?Changecreates

hugeopportunities

forenergy

andresources

companies

thatactnow

andchart

theirown

courseTake

action

at

/energyCo

nte

ntsPREFACEDRIVERSIMPLICATIONSWhy

the

energy

transition

hasreached

critical

momentumHow

ourenergy

systemwillchangeHANDBRAKESOPPORTUNITIESCONTACTSWhy

we

needto

addressrisks

to

progressHow

energy

andresourcescompanies

can

create

value2Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?PREFACEPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsWe

wanted

to

openthis

report

with

a

powerful

anecdote

to

illustrate

the

huge

size,

scope

andspeed

of

the

energy

transition.Our

energy

system

hastransformed

before,

butnot

like

this,

and

not

thisfast

…

We’re

trying

torewire

the

global

economyto

meet

an

urgentThe

truth

is,

we

couldn’t

choose

just

one

from

the

many

examplesof

innovation

unfolding

across

the

world.

A

pipeline

to

pumpgreen

hydrogen

more

than5,000

kilometers

from

West

Africato

Morocco

and

eventually

Europe.

The

world’s

biggest

coppermine

switching

to

100%

renewable

energy

three

years

ahead

ofschedule.

Investmentbanks

pouringbillions

into

batteryrecycling.Even

a

Californian

collaboration

betweena

fuel

cell

company

anda

carmaker

that

will

turn

biogasand

sludge

into

clean

electricity,hydrogen

andwater.The

bad

news

is

that

we’re

simply

not

moving

fast

enough.The

target

to

limit

global

warming

to

1.5

degrees

Celsiusis

unlikely

to

be

met.

The

good

news

is

that

progress

isaccelerating.

The

newEY

Energy

and

Resources

TransitionAcceleration

model,

combined

with

deep

industry

knowledgeand

experience,

confirms

that

the

energy

transition

has

reachedcritical

momentum

and

is

accelerating.Our

model

also

highlightsthat

this

journey

to

the

new

energy

future

will

notbe

linear,

orsingular.

Infact,

we

believe

that

talking

of

one

energy

transitiondenies

the

complexity

of

the

change

ahead.

Multiple

transitionswill

unfold

at

varyingpaces

and

in

many

ways.environmental

imperative.Across

industries

and

governments,

and

in

ourown

homes,both

bigand

small

changes

are

together

drivinga

global

energyrevolution.

Electric

vehicles

(EVs)

fill

more

driveways.

Boards

arefocused

on

performance

against

sustainability

metrics.

Nanogridsare

bringing

power

to

villages

for

the

first

time.Our

energysystem

has

transformed

before,

but

not

like

this,

and

not

this

fast.Previous

transitions

havebeen

driven

by

new

technologies

andachieved

through

market

forces.

These

playa

part

in

this

changetoo,

as

well

asa

changing

consumer,

butourprimary

aim

this

timeis

far

more

ambitious.

We’re

tryingto

rewire

the

global

economyto

meet

an

urgent

environmental

imperative.We

believe

that

talking

of

one

energytransition

denies

the

complexity

of

thechange

ahead.

Multiple

transitions

willunfold

at

varying

paces

and

in

many

ways.3Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?P

R

E

F

A

C

EPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsThese

transitions

will

proceed

at

different

speeds,

dependingonindividual

markets’

motivationsandresources,but

all

will

now

moveahead

at

pace.

We’re

enteringa

decade

of

disruption,

shaped

bynew

technology

andunderpinnedby

government

policy.

The

build-out

of

renewables

to

date

hasbeen

relatively

simple

comparedwith

what

comes

next.

Decarbonizinga

largely

hydrocarbon-powered

industrial

sector

is

the

far

more

difficult

challenge—

andourability

to

tackle

it

will

determine

the

ultimate

success

of

theworld’s

transition

to

clean

energy.

Making

it

happenwill

involvegovernments

facing

tough

choices,

balancing

economic

andenvironmental

priorities

to

setpolicy

that

sends

the

right

signalsto

the

market

and,

ultimately,

all

of

us.

Energy

transitions

in

everycountry

will

only

succeed

if

they

deliver

more

value

to

industrialconsumers

andendusers—

you

and

me

—

and

this

requires

cleanenergy

solutions

that

are

genuinely

better

and

cheaper.The

EY

Energy

and

ResourcesTransition

Acceleration

modelThe

Energy

and

Resources

Transition

Accelerationmodel

—anEY

proprietary

tool—

leverages

over

50,000

data

pointsto

identify

the

timelines

by

which

conventional

energy

assetsare

likely

to

be

partially

or

fully

replaced

by

the

widespreadadoption

and

integration

of

new

energy

technologies.

Itassesses

13

regions

and

considers

52

generation

and

end-usetechnologies,

analyzing

theimpact

of

four

key

levers

on

thefuture

energy

mix:Organizations

that

commit

tothe

right

choices

now

can

securetheir

own

future

and

amplify

ourcollectiveimpact

in

accelerating

thejourney

toa

new

energy

system.Technology

advancement,

considering

current

andemerging

trends,

speed

of

scaling

and

impact

on

cost1Accelerating

change

will

have

eight

major

implications

for

ourenergy

system,

and

for

the

energy

and

resources

companies

at

itsheart.

These

implications

indicate

a

volatile

transition.

Technologieswill

reach

tipping

points

and

be

adopted

in

overlapping

waves.Capitalportfolios

must

shift

to

both

sustainlegacyassets

andincentivize

investment

in

the

new.

Supply

chains

will

evolve

tomeet

demand

for

different

minerals

and

materials.

For

powerand

utilities,

mining

and

metals,

and

oil

and

gas

companies,

theroad

ahead

willbe

challenging

and

often

uncertain.

Reshapingoperations,

culture

and

customer

relationships

willbe

complex,requiring

huge

investment,

new

capabilities

and

different

skills.The

sectors

willneed

to

make

various

trade-offs,

keeping

energysecurity,

sustainability

and

supply

in

balance.

And

each

companywill

face

its

own

dilemmas—

determining

which

changes

to

makeand

when,

amid

ongoinguncertainty

and,

for

multinationals,inconsistency

across

different

markets.Making

these

changes

will

inevitably

create

new

risks

for

theenergy

and

resources

industry.But

the

greatest

risk

comes

frominaction—

companies

that

don’t

adapt

will

see

revenues

decrease,access

to

capital

become

harder

and

competitors

steal

marketshare.

We

believe

that

enormous

commercial

opportunities

are

onoffer

for

those

organizations

thatactnow

to

play

their

role

in

theshift

to

a

cleaner,

more

resilient,

integrated

and

affordable

energysystem.

Inthis

report,

we

outlinea

series

of

no-regret

actionsthat

companies

in

each

sector

cantake

now

to

capture

value

fromourchanging

energy

system.

They

area

starting

point,

becauseevery

organization

willneed

to

consider

their

own

path

acrossmultiple

energy

transitions.None

are

easy.But

we’re

confidentthey

are

possible—

this

is

anindustry

that

knows

how

to

do

hardthings.

Organizations

that

commit

to

the

right

choices

now

cansecure

their

own

future

andamplify

ourcollectiveimpactinaccelerating

the

journey

to

a

new

energy

system.Commodity

supply,

considering

forecast

demandand

possible

bottlenecks2Consumer

engagement,

including

adoption

oftechnology

such

as

EVs3Government

policy,

including

current

regulationandpotential

changes4The

model’s

in-depth

analysis

is

designed

to

helporganizations

understandand

explore

the

likely

energytransition

scenarios.

It

providesa

platform

for

strategicdiscussions

about

the

different

energy

transition

strategiesavailable

to

them

and

the

resulting

implications,

opportunitiesandnoregret

actions

for

their

organizations.4Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?PrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsDRIVERSWhy

the

energy

transition

has

reachedcritical

momentum5Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?D

R

I

V

E

R

SPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContacts“Double

down

and

triple

up.”

InSeptember2023,EY

joined

the

Global

RenewablesAlliance

and

morethan

250

otherThe

combination

of

key

drivers

means

energy

transitions

around

theworld

are

progressing

at

paceorganizations

tocall

on

world

leaders

to

agreetoa

target

of

tripling

renewable

electricitycapacity

to

at

least

11,000

gigawatts

(GW)

by2030

at

COP28.Increasing,catalyzingSustainability

as

aboardroom

agendainnovationand

newenergy

solutionsIt’s

anambitious

target,

but

one

we

believe

is

critical

if

weare

to

securea

livable

future

for

all

of

us.

Keeping

globalwarming

to

the

1.5

degrees

target

set

in

Paris

wouldrequirea

45%

reduction

in

greenhouse

gas

emissions

by2030—

theUN

predicts

they

will

instead

rise

by

10%.TechnologyConsumersGeopoliticsBut

while

progress

towarda

new

energy

system

has

notbeen

fast

enough,

it

has

rapidly

picked

upspeed

over

thepast

couple

of

years.

Renewables

build-out

and

adoptionof

energy

technologies

have

outpaced

mostforecasts,butourmodel

(seepage

4),

which

considersa

greaterarray

of

factors

than

mostothers,

reveals

that

changeis

accelerating

faster

than

even

the

mostoptimisticpredictions.

Infact,

we

believe

that,

around

the

world,change

has

reached

anunstoppable

momentum

due

tothe

combination

of

several

key

drivers.SectorconvergenceThe

businessof

climateAdvancingandapproaching

a

series

ofeconomic

tipping

pointsChanging,

becomingmore

engagedwithenergyCreating

newenergychampions

andecosystems6Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?D

R

I

V

E

R

SPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsTechnology

is

advancingRenewable

power

generation

costsTechnologies

are

advancing

and

rapidly

approachinga

series

of

economic

tipping

points—

underpinningaffordable

clean

energy

solutions

that

are

powerful,efficient

and

scalable,

and

help

bolster

security

of

supply.In2022,

around86%,

or

187GW,

of

newly

commissioned,utility-scale

renewable

power

generation

producedelectricity

ata

lower

cost

than

the

average

cost

of

fossilfuel

generation.

Solar

is

now

the

cheapestsource

ofnew-build

electricity

in

many

markets,

even

amid

recentinflation

and

price

rises.

The

global

weighted

averagelevelized

cost

of

electricity

(LCOE)1

for

solar

photovoltaic(PV)

is29%

lower

than

the

cheapestfossil

fuel

alternative.Large-scaleenergy

storage—

critical

to

anenergy

systemdominated

by

renewables—

is

also

quickly

becoming

morecost-competitive

andsophisticated.LCOE

(US$/MWh),

2010–22Solar

PVOnshore

windOffshore

wind4504171884003503002502001027315035Fossilfuel

cost

range:100US$50–US$150/MWh4950048%TheEY

survey

of

70,000

globalconsumers

across

18

markets

revealedthat

nearlyhalf

(4

8%)will

likely

buyan

EV

as

their

next

vehicle.20102022201020222010202288%66%61%Source:EY

analysis

ofIRENA

data.1The

LCOEistheminimumconstant

priceatwhichelectricity

mustbesold

to

break

even

overthelifetime

ofa

project.7Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?D

R

I

V

E

R

SPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsSectors

are

convergingGeopolitics

are

more

volatileConflictand

other

geopolitical

factors

have

also

seensomenations

embarkon

a

questto

become

energy

superpowers,taking

advantage

of

location

and

availability

of

naturalresources.

For

example,

the

US,

Australia,

SaudiArabia

andChile

are

attempting

to

take

back

control

of

energy

supplychains

from

China,

the

world’s

current

cleantech

superpower.Sectorconvergence

is

increasing

as

digitalization

blursboundaries

between

sectors.

When

companies,

includingcompetitors,

join

forces,

they

canamplify

their

collectiveknowledge

and

skills,

and

accelerate

innovation.

For

example,the

world’s

first

offshore

solar

energy

platform,

launched

intheNorth

Sea

in

August

2023,

is

the

result

of

several

offshorewind

and

engineering

companies

coming

together

to

formaconsortium

(SeaVolt)

with

common

goals.Geopolitics,particularly

the

war

in

Ukraine,

have

redefined

theimportance

of

energy

security,

triggeringa

renewed

focus

onrenewables

in

markets

thatimport

energy.

In2022,

investmentin

low-carbontechnologies

surpassed

US$1t

for

the

first

time,triggered

by

turbocharged

clean

energypolicy

in

the

world’sbiggest

economies,

including

US$369b

earmarked

for

greentechunderthe

US

Inflation

Reduction

Act,

and

a

US$270b

provisionfrom

the

European

Commission

for

cleantech

companies.Consumers

are

changingConsumers’

attitudes

anddemographics

are

changing.GenZ

and

millennials

are

now

the

majority.

There

is

stilla

gapbetween

intent

and

action,

but

sustainability

is

moreimportantto

manypeople

—

the

EY

survey

of

70,000

global

consumersacross

18

markets

revealed

that

nearly

half

(48%)

will

likelybuy

anEV

as

their

next

vehicle.

Indications

suggestthat

EVswill

outstrip

sales

of

all

other

vehicles

by

2030.

Our

survey

alsofound

that

62%

ofpeople

have

bought,

or

are

thinking

aboutbuying,

solar

panels,

and

50%

are

considering

buying,

or

havealready

bought,

batterystorage.In

2022,

investment

inlow-carbon

technologiessurpassedClimate

isa

business

issueUS

$1tSustainability

is

key

to

boardroom

agendasin

many

regions,

aspressure

increases

from

investors

andcustomers,

regulationsget

tougher

and

capital

beginsto

flow

to

sustainableinvestments.

More

than

3,000

businesses

and

financialinstitutions

are

working

with

the

Science-Based

Targetsinitiative

to

reduce

their

emissions

in

line

with

climate

science.for

the

first

time.8Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?D

R

I

V

E

R

SPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsMultiple

energy

transitions

willmove

at

different

pacesGlobal

final

energy

demand

by

fuel

type

and

regionThe

pace

of

change

will

continue

to

pick

up

over

the

nextdecade

and

beyond,

creating

fundamental

shifts

in

howthe

world

produces,

consumes

and

trades

energy.Ourmodel

indicates

that

global

renewable

energy

capacitywill

rise

by

2,000GW

by

the

endof

the

decade,

anamountequivalent

to

China

and

Europe’s

entire

renewablecapacitytoday.

But

ourmodelingof

theimpact

of

fourkey

levers—

technology

advancement,

commodity

supply,consumer

engagementand

governmentpolicy

—

and

theirimpact

on

52

technologies,

reveals

that

the

speed

andnature

of

this

change

willvary

widely

across

countries,markets

and

sectors.

There

is

not

one

energy

transition,butmany.Global

final

energy

demand

is

projected

to

increase

by

17%

by

2050,

asgrowth

engines

China

and

South

Asia

offset

energy

demand

stability

in

theUS

and

Europe.increase

inglobal

finalenergy

demandThe

global

energy

mix

is

projected

to

shift

toward

power,

with

the

shareof

electricity

in

final

consumption

expected

to

grow

to

24%

by

2030

and32%

by

2050.

The

corresponding

doubling

of

electricity

consumption,combined

with

uptake

of

hydrogen,

is

projected

to

offset

fossil

fuelconsumption,

which

is

forecast

to

meet

57%

of

final

energy

demand,compared

with

72%today.17%32%by

2050Global

finalenergy

demand

by

fuel

type

(exajoule)electricity

demandshare

of

total

finalenergy

demand

by2050,

from

22%

today+17%550515490471Our

model

indicates

thatglobal

renewable

energy

capacitywill

rise

by2,000GWby

the

end

of

the

decade,anamountequivalent

to

China

and

Europe’sentire

renewable

capacity

today.176140116ElectricityHydrogenBioenergyNatural

gasCoal106616452687248431817972per

year

growth

inelectricity

demandbetween

now

and

20507572802.2%185185177161Oil2023203020402050Source:EY

analysis

of

ERTA

model

data.9Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?D

R

I

V

E

R

SPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsThespeed

of

transition

willvary

based

on

multiplefactors,

including

the

motives

for

change.

Around

theworld,

governments

face

different,

sometimes

competing,priorities—

economic

prosperity,

geopolitical

pressures,environmental

goalsand

theneed

to

provide

secureaccess

to

affordable

energy.

These

motives

will

drivedifferentpolicy

decisions

that

will

determine

progress.Every

market

willneed

to

activatea

range

of

acceleratorsto

overcome

the

inertia

of

the

status

quo,

keep

up

themomentum

of

change

and

meet

climate

targets.Technology

adoption

ratesThe

transformation

to

a

new

energy

system

willvary

across

regions.Powergeneration

(TWh)USEuropeChinaSouth

AsiaRest

of

the

worldGlobal20502025SolarEvery

market

will

need

to

activatea

range

of

accelerators

to

overcomethe

inertia

of

the

status

quo,

keepup

the

momentum

of

change

andmeet

climate

targets.20502025Wind20502025NuclearThese

should

include

everything

fromcarbon

pricingto

investment

in

technology,

faster

connections

ofnew

capacity,

embedding

intelligence

intoa

digital,bidirectional

gridand

strengthening

supply

of

criticalminerals.

These

accelerators

should

sendthe

right

signals—

to

investors,

the

industry

and

consumers—

to

speedup

the

shift

away

from

traditional

generation

and

towardrenewables.

If

they

don’t

do

this

fast

enough,

marketswillneed

to

consider

other

options,

including

large-scalecarbon

capture,usage

and

storage

(CCUS)

and

evenexpanded

nuclear

programs.20502025CoalGas205020250%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%Source:EY

analysis

of

ERTA

model

data.10Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?D

R

I

V

E

R

SPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsThe

complexity

of

change

will

require

tough

trade-offs

and

huge

investmentFor

energy

and

resources

companies,

multiple

transitions

willmake

fora

volatile

landscape.

Different

markets

will

requiredifferent

strategies,

create

different

risks

andpresent

differenttrade-offs—

all

at

different

times.help

mobilize

governments,

reshape

and

achieve

consensus

onregulation,

shift

consumer

and

corporate

behavior,

and

make

sureouremerging

new

energy

system

is

alsoa

fair

and

equitable

one.technologies

and

enabling

energy

infrastructure

willbe

neededby

2050

(that’sa

quadrupling

of

current

levels).And

for

energy

and

resources

companies,

making

smart,no-regret

actions

now

canmitigate

risk

and

capture

the

value

ofchange.

This

won’tbe

easy,

particularly

as

every

company

willbe

on

their

own

path,

facing

risks

unique

to

their

own

marketand

geography.But

those

that

canidentify

and

commit

to

theright

strategic

choices

now

canrealize

significant

commercialopportunities

and,

collectively,

hasten

ourjourney

to

asustainable,

resilient

energy

future.We

know

this

willbe

challenging,

but

we

also

believe

that

evidenceof

accelerating

change

is

reason

for

optimism.

This

isa

criticaldecade.

The

right

decisions

madenow

canspeedup

ourtransitionto

the

new

energy

system

and

bend

the

emissions

curve

inourfavor.

For

government

and

regulators,

this

means

decidinghow

to

convert

objectives

into

the

economic

signals

that

nudgeconsumers

and

markets

in

the

right

direction

at

the

right

time.

Anestimated

US$4.1t

of

annual

investment

in

low-carbontransitionBesides

the

huge

cost

and

complexity

of

transitioninglegacyassets,

ourmodel

indicates

the

task

at

hand

is

more

challenging,and

multifaceted,

than

many

anticipated.

Energy

and

resourcescompanies

will

take

on

the

challenge

while

also

planning

fordownstream

disruption

and

keeping

investors

onside.For

the

power

and

utilities

sector,

challenges

includea

needto

significantly

expand

andupgradethe

grid,

and

also

resetrelationships

with

customers.

Miners

mustfind

more

accessto

capital

and

secure

license

to

operate

(LTO)

if

they

are

tobuild

supply

chains

that

keep

up

with

evolving

demand

—

noenergy

transition

cantake

place

without

mining.

For

oil

andgas

companies,

decarbonizing

the

molecules

that

much

of

theworld’s

industry

will

continue

to

rely

on

will

becomea

priority—and

critical

to

the

ultimate

success

of

climate

ambitions.An

estimatedUS$4.1tof

annual

investment

in

low-carbontransition

technologies

and

enabling

energyinfrastructure

will

beneeded

by

2050(a

quadrupling

of

current

levels).Multinationals

will

navigate

the

complexity

of

operating

acrossdifferent

environments,

taking

care

that

actions

in

one

regiondon’t

negativelyimpact

operations

in

others

(especially

aroundthe

social

agenda).

Every

sector

willneed

new

talent

andtechnology

to

make

change

happen.

And,

critically,

they

willneed

to

collaborate

across

multiple

sectors,

working

together

to11Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?PrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsIMPLICATIONSHow

our

energy

system

willchange12Ifevery

energy

transition

isdifferent,

whichcourse

willaccelerate

yours?I

M

P

L

I

CA

T

I

O

N

SPrefaceDriversImplicationsHandbrakesOpportunitiesContactsAs

the

energy

transition

accelerates,

thepace

of

changewill

have

major

implicationsfor

our

energy

system

and

for

energy

andresource

companies.

We

discuss

theseimplications

separately

but,in

reality,

theyare

interconnected,driving

and

impactingeach

other.The

eight

implications

of

the

energy

transitionChanges

to

ourenergy

system

have

reached

critical

momentum,

driven

by

technology

advancement,

commodity

supply,consumer

engagement

andgovernment

policy.Implication

1Implication

2Implication

3Implication

4Renewables

dominate

energygeneration(Almost)

everything

iselectrifiedOil

and

gas

go

greenEnergy

systems

are

localized2038

2xRising

electrification

will

accelerate

the

evolution

of

themolecule.

Mainstream

adoption

of

EVs

will

shift

supplychains.

Localized

energy

will

reconfigure

the

grid.Considering

the

cumulativeimpact

of

these

implicationscanhelp

companies

assess

theirimpact

—

and

identifyemerging

risks.

Every

energy

and