新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：2023年新加坡贸易表现回顾

Eaterprise

Singapore

MEDIARELEASE

Embargoeduntil15February2024,8.00a.m.

Reviewof2023TradePerformance1,2

IMPORTANT:Unlessotherwisestated,useofanyinformationinthisnewsrelease

mustbeattributedtoEnterpriseSingapore(EnterpriseSG).

MRNo:006/24

Singapore,Thursday,15February2024

Highlights

TotalMerchandiseTrade

·Declined11.7%in2023,afterthe17.7%expansionin2022

·Non-oiltradedecreased10.5%;oiltradecontracted16.3%amidloweroilpricesthana

yearago

·Bothnon-oildomesticexports(NODX:-13.1%)andre-exports(NORX:-7.3%)declined

2024Forecasts

·Maintainedat“+4.0%to+6.0%”fortotalmerchandisetradeandupgradedto“+4.0%to+6.0%”forNODX;modestgrowthprojectedin2024inlinewithglobaleconomicandtradeoutlook,andexpectedrecoveryfromtheelectronicsdowncycle

TotalServicesTrade

·Declinedby3.8%toreachS$837billionin2023,afterthe22.4%expansionin2022

1Alltopproducts/economieswhicharestatedtohavecontributedtowardsthechangesintradefiguresarerankedbyabsolutechangeinlevelandnotchangeinpercentage.

2Intandemwiththeuseofanewsetoftariffcodesfortheclassificationofallgoodstradedwithinandoutside

ASEAN,datahasbeenupdatedtoASEANHarmonisedTariffNomenclature(AHTN)2022version.

EnterpriseSGisthegovernmentagencychampioningenterprisedevelopment.OurvisionforSingaporeisavibrant

economywithgloballycompetitiveSingaporeenterprises.

Thedatainthemediareleaseisprovidedonan"asis"basisandissubjecttoupdates,aswellasrevisions,toensure

consistencywithintemationalcompilationandreportingstandards.Whileeveryeffortismadetoensurethatthedatais

accurate,itisprovidedbyEnterpriseSGwithoutanyrepresentationorwarranty.EnterpriseSGshallnotbeheld

responsibleforanyconsequencearisingfromyourrelianceonanyinformationprovidedbyus.

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Page2of12

PerCentSingapore'sMerchandiseTrade

(Y-o-Y)(TotalExports+TotalImports)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

TotalExports

0.2

TotalTradeTotalImports

20212223-4.7

4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q-2.1

PerformancebyKeyTradeComponents

TotalMerchandiseTrade

Totalmerchandisetradedeclinedby11.7%in2023;bothoilandnon-oiltrade

decreased

1.Onayear-on-year(y-o-y)basis,Singapore'stotalmerchandisetradedeclinedby11.7%in20233,aftertheexpansionin2022(+17.7%,2021:+19.7%).TotalmerchandisetradereachedS$1.2trillionin2023(2022:S$1.4trillion;2021:S$1.2trillion).Bothexportsand

importsdeclinedby10.1%and13.4%respectivelyin2023.

2.Thedecreaseintotalmerchandisetradewasdrivenbybothoilandnon-oiltrade.

•Oiltradecontractedby16.3%in2023amidloweroilpricesthanayearago,afterthe47.5%expansionin20224.

•Non-oiltradedeclinedby10.5%in2023,afterthe11.9%expansionin20225.

Totalmerchandisetradedeclinedy-o-yforthefifthconsecutivequarterin4Q2023

3.Onayear-on-year(y-o-y)basis,Singapore'stotalmerchandisetradedeclinedby2.1%in4Q2023,easingfromthe16.5%contractioninthepreviousquarter.Bothoilandnon-oil

tradedeclined.

•Oiltradedeclinedby3.3%in4Q2023,afterthepreviousquarter's25.1%contraction.

•Non-oiltradedecreasedby1.8%in4Q2023,followingthe14.2%declinein3Q2023.

Singapore'sMerchandiseTrade

S$billion

(TotalExports+TotalImports)

400

350

TotalTrade

313

300

250

200

166

147

TotalExports

150

TotalImports

100

50

0

4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q20212223

3Meanwhile,inrealterms,totaltradedeclinedy-o-yby7.7%,whileNODXdeclinedby7.9%,duetobothelectronics(-16.2%)andnon-electronics(-5.6%).

4Oiltradeformed29%ofthedeclineintotaltradein2023.OilpricesaveragedUS$82/barrelin2023,lowerthantheUS$101/barrelin2022.Source:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA).

5Non-oiltradeformed71%ofthedeclineintotaltradein2023,ofwhich61%wasdrivenbyelectronicstrade.

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Page3of12

4.Onaquarter-on-quarter(q-o-q)seasonallyadjusted(SA)basis,totalmerchandisetradeincreasedby3.7%in4Q2023,afterthepreviousquarter'sgrowthof3.2%.Oilandnon-oiltradeincreasedby7.3%and2.9%respectivelyin4Q2023.DetailsontheperformanceofmajormerchandisetradecomponentsandkeytradingmarketscanbefoundinAnnexesA,

BandC.

Non-oilExports(NOX)

5.Non-oilexports(NOX),whichincludebothNODXandNORX,declinedy-o-yby9.3%in2023,aftertheprecedingyear's9.6%growth.Onaq-o-qSAbasis,NOXincreasedby4.2%in

4Q2023,followingthe1.9%growthin3Q2023.

Non-oilDomesticExports(NODX)

NODXcontractedin2023,duetothedeclineinbothnon-electronics(e.g.

petrochemicals,specialisedmachineryandfoodpreparations)andelectronics

6.NODXcontractedy-o-yby13.1%in2023,afterthe3.0%growthin2022,duetolower

shipmentsofbothelectronicandnon-electronicproducts.

•ElectronicNODXcontractedby19.7%in2023,afterthe0.5%increasein2022.

•Non-electronicNODXdeclinedby11.1%in2023,afterthe3.8%growthin2022.

7.Onay-o-ybasis,NODXdecreasedby1.4%in4Q2023,easingfromthepreviousquarter’s

19.5%contraction.ElectronicNODXdeclinedwhilenon-electronicsgrew.

•ElectronicNODXdeclinedby9.9%in4Q2023,moderatingfromthepreviousquarter’s20.1%contraction.

•Non-electronicNODXgrewby1.1%in4Q2023,afterthe19.3%contractionin3Q2023.

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Page4of12

S$billion

Non-OilDomesticExports

PerCent(Y-o-Y)

50

30

10

-10

-30

-50

Growth(RHS)

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q

2021

1Q2Q3Q4Q

22

1Q2Q3Q4Q

23

8.Onaq-o-qSAbasis,NODXgrewby8.1%in4Q2023,afterthepreviousquarter’s7.2%

decline,duetobothelectronicandnon-electronicNODX.

•ElectronicNODXgrewby2.4%in4Q2023,followingthe5.5%decreasein3Q2023.

•Non-electronicNODXroseby9.7%in4Q2023,afterthe7.7%declineinthepreviousquarter.

9.Electronicproducts.Domesticexportsofelectronicproducts6contractedby19.7%in2023,afterthe0.5%growthin2022.ThelargestcontributorstothedeclineinelectronicNODX

wereICs(-26.9%),PCs(-28.5%)anddiskmediaproducts(-21.1%)(seeAnnexE).

10.Onay-o-ybasis,domesticexportsofelectronicproductsdeclinedby9.9%in4Q2023,easingfromthe20.1%contractioninthepreviousquarter.ThedecreaseinelectronicNODXcanbeattributedtolowerdomesticexportsofICs(-14.8%),PCs(-19.6%)anddiodes&

transistors(-13.4%).

11.Non-electronicproducts.Domesticexportsofnon-electronicproducts7contractedby11.1%in2023,afterthe3.8%growthin2022.Thelargestcontributorstothedeclineinnon-electronicNODXwerepetrochemicals(-20.1%),specialisedmachinery(-10.1%)and

foodpreparations(-20.7%)(seeAnnexE).

12.Onay-o-ybasis,non-electronicNODXgrewby1.1%in4Q2023,afterthe19.3%contraction

inthepreviousquarter.Theincreaseinnon-electronicNODXcanbeattributedtohigher

6Comprising21%ofNODXin2023.

7Comprising79%ofNODXin2023.

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Page5of12

S$billion

NODX:Electronics

PerCent(Y-o-Y)

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Growth(RHS)

4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q20212223

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

domesticexportsofpharmaceuticals(+63.2%),non-monetarygold(+46.5%)and

miscellaneousmanufacturedarticles(+57.7%).

S$5040302010 0-10-20

billion

NODX:Non-Electronics

PerCent(Y-o-Y)

Growth(RHS)

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q20212223

NODXtothetopmarketsgenerallydeclined,mainlyduetoTaiwan,MalaysiaandIndonesia

13.TopMarkets.NODXtothetopmarkets,excepttheUS,declinedin2023.ThebiggestcontributorstotheNODXdeclinewereTaiwan(-30.1%),Malaysia(-20.3%),andIndonesia

(-24.9%).DetailsontheperformanceofkeyNODXmarketscanbefoundinAnnexD.

Non-oilDomesticExportstoTopMarkets(%Growth)

TopMarket^

NODX

ElectronicNODX

Non-ElectronicNODX

2022

2023

2022

2023

2022

2023

Taiwan

6.3

-30.1

0.6

-26.0

11.3

-33.4

Malaysia

11.7

-20.3

28.5

-28.9

2.1

-14.2

Indonesia

9.0

-24.9

2.7

-50.9

10.0

-20.9

Korea,RepOf

0.4

-19.2

2.5

-27.4

-0.3

-16.5

EU27

10.7

-9.4

15.5

6.3

10.0

-11.8

China

-13.1

-5.1

-10.3

-19.9

-13.7

-2.1

Japan

10.7

-13.4

17.8

-16.2

9.0

-12.7

HongKong

-18.7

-7.3

-23.3

-29.7

-8.8

33.8

Thailand

-0.4

-7.1

-8.0

-7.0

3.6

-7.2

US

18.6

3.2

3.2

4.4

22.1

3.0

^:RankedbycontributiontothechangeinNODXlevelsovertheyear.

14.ElectronicNODXtothetopmarketsdeclinedin2023.ThebiggestcontributorstotheelectronicNODXdecreasewereMalaysia(-28.9%),Taiwan(-26.0%)andHongKong(-29.7%).ThetopthreeproductscontributingtothedeclineinelectronicNODX

foreachoftherelevanttopmarketareprovidedinthetablebelow.

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Page6of12

TopProductsContributingtotheDeclineinElectronicNODXtoTopMarkets(%Change)

TopMarket^

TopProductsContributingtotheDeclineinElectronicNODX

TopProduct

2023

(%Change)

SecondProduct

2023

(%Change)

ThirdProduct

2023

(%Change)

Malaysia

ICs

-34.2

Diodes&

Transistors

-9.6

PartsofICs

-36.2

Taiwan

ICs

-23.3

PartsofICs

-38.9

PCs

-32.9

HongKong

ICs

-26.1

DiskMediaProducts

-65.4

Diodes&Transistors

-33.8

China

ICs

-30.5

DiskMediaProducts

-18.4

DiskDrives

-33.3

Korea,Rep

Of

ICs

-53.9

PCs

-37.7

DiskDrives

-14.0

Indonesia

TelecommunicationsEquipment

-65.6

PCs

-48.4

ICs

-53.4

Japan

PCs

-14.7

Capacitors

-70.6

ICs

-14.8

Thailand

DiskMediaProducts

-20.5

PCs

-49.0

PartsofPCs

-19.3

^:RankedbycontributiontothechangeinelectronicNODXlevelsovertheyear.

15.Non-electronicNODXtothetopmarketsasawholedeclinedin2023.Thebiggestcontributorstothedeclineinnon-electronicNODXwereTaiwan(-33.4%),theEU27(-11.8%)andIndonesia(-20.9%).Thetopthreeproductscontributingtothe

declineinnon-electronicNODXforeachoftherelevanttopmarketaretabledbelow.

TopProductsContributingtotheDeclineinNon-ElectronicNODXtoTopMarkets(%Change)

TopMarket^

TopProductsContributingtotheDeclineinNon-ElectronicNODX

TopProduct

2023

(%Change)

SecondProduct

2023

(%Change)

ThirdProduct

2023

(%Change)

Taiwan

Specialised

Machinery

-39.6

Measuring

Instruments

-25.8

Non-monetaryGold

-65.4

EU27

Pharmaceuticals

-7.2

Specialised

Machinery

-20.8

PrimaryChemicals

-68.5

Indonesia

Non-monetaryGold

-63.6

Petrochemicals

-10.2

StructuresofShips&Boats

-98.9

Malaysia

Specialised

Machinery

-33.4

PrimaryChemicals

-30.6

ElectricalMachinery

-34.2

Korea,Rep

Of

Specialised

Machinery

-16.6

Measuring

Instruments

-31.3

OtherSpecialtyChemicals

-12.1

Japan

Specialised

Machinery

-12.8

SilverPlatinumMetal

-60.0

OtherSpecialtyChemicals

-31.6

China

Petrochemicals

-25.2

Pharmaceuticals

-69.5

PrimaryChemicals

-56.7

Thailand

Specialised

Machinery

-42.2

Petrochemicals

-11.1

FoodPreparations

-10.9

^:Rankedbycontributiontothechangeinnon-electronicNODXlevelsovertheyear.

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Page7of12

Non-oilRe-exports(NORX)

NORXdeclinedin2023;bothelectronicandnon-electronicre-exportsdeclined

16.NORXdeclinedy-o-yby7.3%in2023,afterthe13.4%expansionin2022.Thedecreasein

NORXcanbeattributedtolowershipmentsofbothelectronicandnon-electronicre-exports.

17.Electronicproducts.ElectronicNORXcontractedby11.6%in2023,afterthe9.9%growthin2022.ThedecreaseinelectronicNORXwasduetolowerre-exportsofICs(-14.7%),parts

ofPCs(-21.4%)anddiodes&transistors(-5.3%).

18.Non-electronicproducts.Non-electronicNORXdeclinedby2.4%in2023,afterthe17.7%expansionin2022.Thedeclineinnon-electronicNORXwasduetolowerre-exportsof

non-monetarygold(-21.0%),electricalmachinery(-30.5%)andpetrochemicals(-26.8%).

NORXgrewin4Q2023;bothelectronicsandnon-electronicsincreased

19.Onay-o-ybasis,NORXgrewby2.0%in4Q2023,afterthe10.1%contractionin3Q2023.TheincreaseinNORXcanbeattributedtohighershipmentsofbothelectronicand

non-electronicre-exports.

20.Electronicproducts.ElectronicNORXroseby2.8%in4Q2023,afterthe10.3%contractionin3Q2023.ThegrowthinelectronicNORXwasduetohigherre-exportsofICs(+7.2%),

othercomputerperipherals(+44.6%)andtelecommunicationsequipment(+6.2%).

21.Non-electronicproducts.Non-electronicNORXincreasedby1.1%in4Q2023,afterthe9.8%declinein3Q2023.Theriseinnon-electronicNORXwasduetohigherre-exportsofnon-electricengines&motors(+23.6%),specialisedmachinery(+16.5%)and

pharmaceuticals(+36.3%).

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S$billion

Non-OilRe-Exports

PerCent(Y-o-Y)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

Growth(RHS)

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q

2021

1Q2Q3Q4Q

22

1Q2Q3Q4Q

23

NORXincreasedoverthequarterin4Q2023duetobothelectronicsandnon-electronics

22.Onaq-o-qSAbasis,NORXroseby2.4%in4Q2023,followingthe6.8%growthin3Q2023.

In4Q2023,onaq-o-qSAbasis:

•Electronicre-exportsgrewby2.7%in4Q2023,afterthe10.5%expansionin3Q2023.

•Non-electronicre-exportsroseby2.1%in4Q2023,followingthe3.0%growthin3Q2023.

NORXtothetopmarketsdeclinedin2023,ledbyHongKong,MalaysiaandtheEU27

23.TopMarkets.NORXtothetopmarketsdeclinedin2023.ThebiggestcontributorstotheNORXdecreasein2023wereHongKong(-15.2%),Malaysia(-14.6%)andtheEU27

(-16.2%).DetailsontheperformanceofkeyNORXmarketscanbefoundinAnnexF.

OilDomesticExports

Oildomesticexportsdeclinedinnominaltermsin2023

24.Oildomesticexportsdeclinedby14.2%in2023,afterthe52.4%expansionin2022.

•ThedeclineinoildomesticexportswasduetolowershipmentsofoiltoMalaysia(-14.9%),Australia(-17.5%)andtheEU27(-19.9%).

•Involumeterms,oildomesticexportsroseby2.3%in2023,afterthe1.7%growthin2022(seeAnnexG).

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Page9of12

25.Onay-o-ybasis,oildomesticexportsdeclinedby2.1%in4Q2023,moderatingfromthe

26.9%contractioninthepreviousquarter.

•Involumeterms,oildomesticexportsincreasedby1.2%in4Q2023,afterthe16.6%contractioninthepreviousquarter.

•Onaq-o-qSAbasis,oildomesticexportsexpandedby11.8%in4Q2023,extendingthe5.3%growthinthepreviousquarter.

OilRe-exports

Oilre-exportsgrewin2023

26.Oilre-exportsgrewy-o-yby21.8%in2023,followingthe28.1%expansionin2022.

•Thegrowthinoilre-exportswasmainlyduetoSouthKorea,China(+117.7%)andTaiwan(+75.1%).

•Involumeterms,oilre-exportsexpandedby42.9%in2023,afterthepreviousyear’sdeclineof5.5%.

27.Onay-o-ybasis,oilre-exportscontractedby14.4%in4Q2023,afterthe70.9%expansion

in3Q2023.

•Involumeterms,oilre-exportscontractedby16.7%in4Q2023,afterthe90.0%expansionin3Q2023.

•Onaq-o-qSAbasis,oilre-exportscontractedby24.9%in4Q2023(3Q2023:+11.9%).

OutlookforMerchandiseTradeandNODXin2024

Modestgrowthexpectedin2024inlinewithglobaleconomicandtradeoutlook,and

expectedrecoveryfromtheelectronicsdowncycle

28.Amidloweroilpricesy-o-yandsluggishglobalelectronicsdemand,oiltradeandelectronicstradedrove29%and43%oftotalmerchandisetrade’sdeclinerespectivelyin2023.Thiswashigherthantheirrespectivesharesoftotaltradein2022(oiltrade:21%,electronicstrade:34%).Similarly,electronicsexportsdrove34%ofNODX’sdeclinein2023,disproportionatelyhigherthanits23%shareofNODXin2022.Accountingforanexpected

recoveryintheelectronicscycle,bothtotaltradeandNODXareprojectedtopickupin2024.

29.For2024,globalelectronicsdemandisprojectedtograduallyrecoverasinventorylevelsnormalise.Sincethelastupdate,anetweightedbalanceof16%offirmsintheelectronics

clusterprojectedimprovedbusinessprospectsfortheperiodJanuarytoJune2024

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Page10of12

comparedtothefourthquarterof20238.Exportspriceindexofelectronics-relatedproductshaddeclinedy-o-yataslowerpacein4Q2023,comparedto3Q20239.Meanwhile,oilpricesin2024areprojectedtobesimilartothatin202310.

30.Intermsofglobaloutlook,theInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)hasprojectedthatglobaleconomicactivitywillgrowby3.1%in2024.Thiswasupfromtheprevious2.9%estimateinOctober2023,reflectingtheupgradeingrowthoutlookformostofSingapore’skeytradepartners,includingChina,theUSandASEAN-5.Overall,theIMFexpectsglobalgrowthtoberesilientin2024,after2023’sgrowth(similarlyat3.1%)11.

31.Onthetradefront,theIMFprojectedhigherworldtradevolumegrowthin2024(+3.3%)thanin2023(+0.4%).Similarly,theWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)expectedglobalmerchandisetradetogrowfasterin2024(+3.3%)thanin2023(+0.8%)12.

32.Takingtheaboveintoconsideration,the2024growthprojectionfortotalmerchandisetrade

ismaintainedat“+4.0%to+6.0%”,whilethatforNODXisupgradedto“+4.0%to+6.0%”.

TOTALSERVICESTRADE13

Totalservicestradedeclinedin2023

33.Singapore’stotalservicestrade14declinedby3.8%in2023,afterthe22.4%expansionin2022.TotalservicestradereachedS$837billionfortheyear,downfromS$871billionin2022.Servicesexportsandimportsdeclinedby5.1%and2.4%in2023respectively(see

AnnexesHandI).

34.Onay-o-ybasis,Singapore'stotalservicestradedecreasedby2.8%in4Q2023,followingthedeclineof6.9%inthepreviousquarter.Servicesexportsandimportsdecreasedby3.9%

and1.5%in4Q2023respectively.

8BasedonEDB’sBusinessExpectationsoftheManufacturingSectorreleasedon31January2024.

9Theexportpriceindexofmachinery&transportequipmentdeclined2.1%yoyin4Q2023,easingfromthe4.6%declinein3Q2023.(Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Singapore).

10TheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationprojectedoilpricestoaverageUS$82/barrelin2024and2023,basedonthelatestFebruary2024release.

11BasedonIMF’slatestreleaseinJanuary2024.

12BasedonWTO’slatestreleaseinOctober2023.

13Thelatestannualandquarterlyestimatesonservicestradearecompiledbasedonthebestavailabledataatthetimeoffirstreleaseandsubjecttorevisions.

14Totalservicestradeconsistsofservicesexportsandservicesimports.Exportsofservicesrefertothevalueofcross-borderservicesprovidedbyresidentstonon-residents,whileimportsofservicesrefertothevalueofcross-borderservicesprovidedbynon-residen