中国科技行业战略：Figure+01创AI人形机器人新里程碑星舰试飞进步显著商业航天未来可期

中国科技战略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20241研究报告ResearchReport18Mar20248中国科技战略ChinaTechnologFigure01创AI人形机器人新里程碑，星舰试飞进步显著商业航天未来可期Figure01SetsaNewMilestoneinAIHumanoidRobots;StarshipFlightTestShowsSignificantProgress,PromisingFutureforCommercialSpaceTravel姚书桥BarneyYaobarney.sq.yao@王沈昱OscarWang,CFAsy.wang@(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)事件3月14日，OpenAI和初创公司Figure共同发布Figure01人形机器人视频，引发广泛关注，展示了机器人在厨房中与高级AI工程师CoreyLynch进行互动，完成了包括识别苹果、碗碟和杯子、按指令收集垃圾等任务。Figure01利用OpenAI最新的视觉语言模型技术，融合了生成式AI和神经网络学习原理，能够进行多任务处理、识别环境并实时与用户交流，标志着通用任务AI人形机器人技术的重要进展。这一成就仅在OpenAI与Figure宣布合作13天后实现。同日，SpaceX在星舰基地成功发射“星舰”火箭，并达到太空，完成了其第三次关键试飞。这次试飞受到了广泛欢呼和美国宇航局的祝贺。虽然结果并未完全达到预期，相较前两次试射，这次的性能提升显著，实现了更远的飞行距离和更长的飞行时间，并完成了更多测试任务，使得SpaceX向其送人上月球和火星的长期目标迈进了一步。点评多任务处理+人机实时交互，Figure01展现未来AI人形机器人新里程碑。Figure01是由OpenAI和初创公司Figure共同开发的人形机器人，高5英尺6英寸，重60kg，能承重20kg，续航5小时，前进速度达1.2m/秒。这款机器人展现出了与以往工业机器人不同的四大特点：1）具备强大的语义理解能力，能实时与人沟通，无“机械化延时”。2）拥有端到端的神经网络学习能力，能进行思考、推理，并能从抽象词汇推导具体物品。3）能进行情感互动和反问交互，表现出“类人性”。4）具备通用环境下的多任务处理能力，能通过观察学习纠正错误，识别周围环境物体，并进行多任务处理。这些能力背后是OpenAI最新视觉语言模型与Figure神经网络系统的结合，使Figure01能通过简单观察学习新技能，使用"学习型低级双臂操作"进行精准控制，以及通过强化学习不断优化任务执行效率。成立两年估值26亿美元，获科技巨头们重金投资。Figure成立于2022年，主要由前谷歌工程师组成，旨在开发能解放人类从危险和繁重工作的高性能人形机器人。面对人形机器人的巨大市场前景，微软、英伟达、OpenAI等行业巨头纷纷投资，Figure在B轮融资中筹集了6.75亿美元，估值已飙升至26亿美元。其中，亚马逊前CEO贝索斯、微软和英伟达等均有重要投资。团队成员来自波士顿动力、特斯拉等领先企业，拥有丰富的AI和仿人机器人研发经验。Figure已与宝马签订首个商业协议，将AI和机器人技术融入汽车生产线，并落户于宝马的工厂，预示人形机器人在工业应用的新时代即将到来。公司未来计划与OpenAI联手，推进人形机器人技术革新，将多模态大模型的能力扩展到机器人的感知、推理和交互上，展现行业巨大的发展潜力和盈利前景。“星舰”试飞进步显著，载人太空旅行任重道远。SpaceX的巨型火箭“星舰”从得州博卡奇卡星际基地成功发射，进行了第三次试飞，尽管前两次均未成功。这次试飞仍被定性为“测试”，旨在完成包括两级火箭燃烧、有效载荷舱门开关、燃料转移等多项雄心勃勃的目标。尽管超重型火箭在返回途中丢失，星舰的第二级成功进入太空，完成了部分测试任务，但在重返大气层时与地面失去联系，推测未能成功着陆。SpaceX强调这些试飞旨在收集数据，优化设计，此次试飞虽然没有实现所有目标，但比前两次有所进步，为将来的任务奠定了基础。公司重申其多行星生命愿景，继续向前推进。我们认为，星舰项目旨在开发重复使用火箭，降低成本，实现多行星生存愿景。虽然试飞未全符预期，但也提供了宝贵的改进数据。SpaceX将继续优化，积累无人飞行经验，确保未来载人任务安全。风险AI赋能机器人研发进度不及预期，市场竞争加剧风险，火箭研发和试射进度不及预期，宏观经济下行。18Mar20242图3FigureB轮融资6.75亿美元，估值达26亿美元图5SpaceX起飞瞬间图6星舰发射系统中国科技战略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20243图7星舰周围的等离子体图8星舰即将溅落印度洋中国科技战略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20244APPENDIX1EventsOnMarch14,OpenAIandthestartupFigurejointlyreleasedavideoofthehumanoidrobotFigure01,sparkingwidespreadattention.ThevideoshowcasedinteractionsbetweentherobotandseniorAIengineerCoreyLynchinakitchen,completingtaskssuchasidentifyingapples,bowls,andcups,andcollectingtrashuponinstruction.UtilizingOpenAI'slatestvision-languagemodeltechnology,Figure01integratesgenerativeAIandneuralnetworklearningprinciples,enablingmulti-taskprocessing,environmentalrecognition,andreal-timecommunicationwithusers.Thismarksasignificantadvancementingeneral-purposeAIhumanoidrobottechnology,achievedjust13daysafterOpenAIandFigureannouncedtheircollaboration.Onthesameday,SpaceXsuccessfullylaunchedtheStarshiprocketfromStarbase,reachingspaceandcompletingitsthirdcriticalflighttest.ThisflightwasmetwithwidespreadacclaimandcongratulationsfromNASA.Althoughtheresultsdidnotfullymeetexpectations,comparedtotheprevioustwolaunches,thisflightdemonstratedsignificantimprovementsinperformance,achievinggreaterflightdistanceandlongerflightduration,andcompletingmoretestobjectives.ThisbringsSpaceXonestepclosertoitslong-termgoalsofmannedlunarandMarsmissions.CommentsWithmulti-taskprocessingandreal-timehuman-machineinteraction,Figure01representsanewmilestoneforfutureAIhumanoidrobots.DevelopedjointlybyOpenAIandthestartupFigure,this5-foot-6-inchtall,60kgrobotcancarryaloadof20kg,hasa5-hourbatterylife,andcanmoveataspeedof1.2m/s.Therobotdisplaysfourdistinctivefeaturesunlikepreviousindustrialrobots:1)Itpossessesstrongsemanticunderstandingcapabilities,enablingreal-timecommunicationwithhumanswithout"mechanicaldelays."2)Ithasend-to-endneuralnetworklearningabilities,capableofthinking,reasoning,anddeducingspecificitemsfromabstractterms.3)Itcanengageinemotionalinteractionsandaskcounter-questions,showing"human-like"traits.4)Itiscapableofmulti-taskhandlinginageneralenvironment,learningfromobservationstocorrectmistakes,recognizingsurroundingobjects,andmanagingmultipletaskssimultaneously.ThesecapabilitiesareunderpinnedbytheintegrationofOpenAI'slatestvision-languagemodelandFigure'sneuralnetworksystem,enablingFigure01tolearnnewskillsthroughsimpleobservation,performprecisecontrolwith"learning-basedlow-leveldual-armmanipulation,"andcontinuouslyoptimizetaskexecutionefficiencythroughreinforcementlearning.ValuedatUS$2.6billionjusttwoyearsafteritsestablishment,Figurehasattractedsubstantialinvestmentfromtechgiants.Foundedin2022byformerGoogleengineers,Figureaimstodevelophigh-performancehumanoidrobotscapableoffreeinghumansfromdangerousandlaborioustasks.Facingthehugemarketprospectsofhumanoidrobots,industrygiantslikeMicrosoft,Nvidia,andOpenAIhavemadeinvestments,withFigureraisingUS$675millioninitsSeriesBfundinground,valuingthecompanyatUS$2.6billion.ImportantinvestmentshavebeenmadebyformerAmazonCEOJeffBezos,Microsoft,andNvidia,amongothers.Theteam,withmembersfromleadingcompanieslikeBostonDynamicsandTesla,possessesextensiveexperienceinAIandhumanoidrobotR&D.FigurehassigneditsfirstcommercialagreementwithBMWtointegrateAIandrobotictechnologyintocarproductionlines,markinganewerafortheindustrialapplicationofhumanoidrobots.ThecompanyplanstocollaboratewithOpenAItoadvancehumanoidrobottechnologyinnovation,extendingmultimodallargemodelcapabilitiestorobotperception,reasoning,andinteraction,demonstratingtheindustry'svastdevelopmentpotentialandprofitprospects.TheStarshipflighttestshowssignificantprogress,butthejourneytowardsmannedspacetravelisstilllong.SpaceX'sStarshiprocketsuccessfullylaunchedfromtheBocaChicaStarbaseinTexas,completingitsthirdflighttest,thoughtheprevioustwowereunsuccessful.Classifiedasa"test,"thisflightaimedtoachieveambitiousgoals,includingtwo-stagerocketcombustion,payloadbaydooroperation,andfueltransfer.Althoughthesuperheavyrocketwaslostonitsreturnjourney,Starship'ssecondstagesuccessfullyenteredspaceandcompletedsometestobjectives.However,itlostcontactwiththegrounduponre-enteringtheatmosphere,andit'spresumeditdidnotlandsuccessfully.SpaceXemphasizesthatthesetestflightsareintendedtocollectdataandoptimizedesign.Althoughnotallobjectiveswereachieved,progresswasmadecomparedtothepreviousflights,layingthegroundworkforfuturemissions.Thecompanyreiteratesitsvisionformultiplanetarylife,continuingtomoveforward.WebelievetheStarshipprojectaimstodevelopreusablerockets,reducecosts,andrealizethevisionofmultiplanetarysurvival.Whilethetestflightdidnotfullymeetexpectations,itprovidedvaluabledataforimprovement.SpaceXwillcontinuetooptimize,18Mar20245accumulateunmannedflightexperience,andensurethesafetyoffuturemannedmissions.AI-enabledrobotdevelopmentprogressisnotexpected;marketcompetitionintensifies;rocketdevelopmentandflighttestprogressarenotexpected;economicdownturn.6ii下下 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