世界银行-宜居星球的就业机会：清洁能源转型创造就业机会的潜力（英）

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REPORT

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET

JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET 1

REPORT

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET

JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition

ZuzanaDobrotková

SheoliPargal

NicolasFichaux

ABOUTESMAP

TheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankandover20partnerstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ESMAP’sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBank’scountryfinancingandpolicydialogueintheenergysector.ThroughtheWorldBank,ESMAPworkstoacceleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(SDG7),whichensuresaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodernenergyforall.IthelpsshapeWorldBankstrategiesandprogramstoachievetheWorldBank’sClimateChangeActionPlantargets.Learnmoreat:.

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Contents

Acknowledgments

vii

AboutthisReport

viii

Abbreviations

ix

Glossary

x

KeyFindings

xii

ExecutiveSummary

xv

1. WhyAssesstheEmploymentImpactsoftheCleanEnergyTransition?

1

2. EmploymentImpactsoftheEnergyTransition:WhatDoWeKnow?

5

2.1. Definitions

5

2.2. GlobalAnalyses

7

2.3. KeyConsiderationsinAssessingJobImpacts

9

2.4. ReviewoftheLiteratureandMethodologiesUsed

11

3.EconomywideEmploymentImpactsofCleanEnergyInvestmentsin

DevelopingEconomies

17

3.1. SetupoftheCGEModelUsedandScenariosStudied

18

Scenario1:IncreaseinRenewableElectricityGeneration

19

Scenario2:IncreaseinRegionalElectricityTrade

20

Scenario3:IncreaseintheReliabilityofPowerSupply

20

Scenario4:ImprovementsinDemand-SideEnergyEfficiency

21

3.2. ImpactsofDifferentScenariosonRealGDP,LaborDemand,andWages

21

3.3. EstimatesofEconomywideJobCreation

25

3.4. SummaryofEconomywideModelingResults

27

4. DirectandIndirectJobCreation:FindingsfromSevenCaseStudies

31

4.1. SummaryDescriptionsoftheCaseStudies

36

4.2. QuantificationofDirectandIndirectEmploymentImpacts

38

4.3. SkillsRequirements,LocalHiringMandates,andTransferabilityofSkills

42

4.4. AttractivenessofSustainableEnergyJobs

51

4.5. GenderBalance

54

4.6. CleanEnergyJobs:AProfileBasedonCaseStudies

58

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET iii

5. TheJobTransitionforCoalPowerPlantWorkers

61

5.1. RepurposingCoalPowerPlants

62

5.2. TheWorkforceinCoal-FiredPowerPlants

64

5.3. PossibleJobTransitionPathways

65

5.4. TheBottomLineonTransitioningfromBrowntoGreen:NotaSimpleMatter

71

6. TheEffectoftheEnergyTransitiononInducedJobs

75

6.1. AssessmentofProductiveUsesofElectricityfromMiniGridsinNigeria

76

6.2. InducedEmploymentinIndia,Malawi,andPeru

76

6.3. EconomywideInducedJobsinRwanda

78

6.4. ToUnderstandInducedJobs:MoreRigorousEvaluationOverLongerPeriods

80

7. ConclusionsandRecommendations

83

References

91

CONTENTS

ListofFigures,Tables,andBoxes

Figures

FigureES.1.SharesofSkilled,Semiskilled,andUnskilledDirectJobsintheStudiedProjects

xviii

Figure1.1.GlobalEnergySectorJobsUnderaRangeofScenarios,2019and2030

1

Figure2.1.GlobalEmploymentinSelectedEnergySubsectors,2022

8

Figure2.2.GlobalRenewableEnergyEmployment,byTechnology,2012–21

8

Figure2.3.VaryingScopesofEmploymentImpactAssessmentsforCoaland

RenewableEnergy/EnergyEfficiencyInstallations

10

Figure3.1.ElectricityGenerationintheBaselineandScenarios1and2,byCountry,

2021and2030

19

Figure3.2.ChangesinRealGDPin2030intheFourScenarios,byCountry

22

Figure3.3.ChangesinRealWagesofUnskilledandSkilledWorkers,byScenario

andCountry,2030

23

FigureB.4.1.1.ProjectedIndirectJobsCreatedbytheAmanProjectinMauritania

32

Figure4.1.ShareofDirectandIndirectJobsinCaseStudyProjects

39

Figure4.2.SharesofSkilled,Semiskilled,andUnskilledDirectJobsinthe

StudiedProjects

42

Figure4.3.TotalDirectEmployees(Full-TimeEquivalent)PerOrganization

InvolvedintheRusumoProject

47

FigureB.4.3.1.ProfessionsNeededinaTypicalValueChainforaRenewable

EnergyProject

50

Figure5.1.AnExampleofSuggestedRepurposingofMiningLands

63

Figure5.2.DistributionDensityPlotsofNumeracy,Literacy,andProblem-Solving

SkillsRequiredinGreenandBrownJobsinPoland

66

Figure5.3.AnalysisofPotentialJobTransitionsforaDisplacedMechatronics

EngineerinPoland

66

Figure7.1.OverarchingTheoryofChangeforCleanEnergyInterventions

88

Tables

TableES.1.TotalJobCreationAssessedintheCaseStudies(Full-TimeEquivalents)

xvii

TableES.2.Salaries,Wages,andWorkingConditionsintheProjectsStudied

xviii

Table2.1.ComparisonofMethodologiesUsedtoAssessEmploymentImpact

oftheGreenTransition

12

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET v

Table3.1.EstimatedChangeinElectricityGenerationandNumberofDirectNew

JobsCreatedintheElectricitySector,byScenarioandCountry,2030

24

TableB3.1.1.EmploymentEquivalenttoChangeinRealGDP,byScenarioandCountry

26

Table4.1.TotalJobCreationAssessedintheCaseStudies(Full-TimeEquivalents)

39

Table4.2.DefinitionsofDirect,Indirect,andInducedJobsinCaseStudies

41

Table4.3.SkillsandEnablingFrameworksforLocalizationofSkilledJobsDirectly

CreatedbytheEnergyTransition,byProject

43

Table4.4.SkillsandEnablingFrameworksforLocalizationofUnskilledJobsDirectly

CreatedbytheEnergyTransition,byProject

45

Table4.5.TransferabilityoftheWorkforce,DirectSkilledJobs

47

Table4.6.TransferabilityoftheWorkforce,DirectUnskilledJobs

48

Table4.7.Salaries,Wages,andWorkingConditionsintheProjectsUnderStudy

52

Table4.8.GenderAspectsofJobsCreatedbytheProjectsUnderStudy

54

Boxes

Box3.1.EmploymentEquivalenttoChangesinRealGDP

25

Box4.1.ExpectedJobCreationinMauritaniaforaGreenHydrogenProject

32

Box4.2.ExpectedJobCreationinOffshoreWindIndustryandLeveragingExperience

fromOffshoreOilandGasJobs

33

Box4.3.PreparingSkilledLaborfortheCleanEnergyTransition

49

Box4.4.GettingtoGenderEqualityintheEnergySector

56

Box5.1.RegionalDifferencesinWorkPreferencesAcrossPoland

68

Box5.2.TheDifficultiesofRetrainingPolishCoalWorkerstoWorkonRenewable

EnergyProjects

69

Box5.3.WorkingTowardaJustTransitionforWorkersLaidOfffromSouthAfrica’s

KomatiCoal-FiredPowerPlant

70

Box7.1.WhatistheTOCofaCleanEnergyProject?

86

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments

ThisworkwasmadepossiblebytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withfinancialsupportfromtheRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairsofDenmark.ESMAPisapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand19donorstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.

ThereportwaspreparedbyZuzanaDobrotková(SeniorEnergySpecialist),SheoliPargal(LeadEnergyEconomist),andNicolasFichaux(SeniorEnergyConsultant).TheworkwasinitiatedundertheguidanceofRohitKhanna(PracticeManager,ESMAP)andcompletedunderGabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager,ESMAP),withoverallstrategicdirectionprovidedbyDemetriosPapathanasiou(GlobalDirector,EnergyandExtractivesGlobalPractice).

Theteamacknowledgestheimportantinputs,insightsandassistancereceivedfromSudeshnaGhoshBanerjee(RegionalDirector),UlrikeLehr(SeniorEconomist),TuChiNguyen(SeniorEnergyEconomist),AndersPedersen(SeniorEnergySpecialist),NathyeliAcunaCastillo(GenderSpecialist)andAnnaAghababyan(SeniorOperationsOfficer)andWorldBankconsultantsStephaniePinnington,andKavitaRai.

Editor:StevenKennedy.

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET vii

AboutthisReport

Thisreportpresentsthefindingsandconclusionsofaprogramofanalyticalworkundertakentoinvestigatetheimpactsoftheglobaltransitiontocleanenergyonthequantityandqualityofjobsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Undertheprogram,entitled“EstimatingtheJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition,”theWorldBank’sEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)undertookmultiplestreamsofanalysis:

Areviewoftheliteratureandcommonlyusedmethodologiesofinvestigation(World

Bank2023a)

ModelingofeconomywidejobimpactsofpoliciessupportingthecleanenergytransitioninselectedcountriesinSub-SaharanAfrica(WorldBank2023b)

CasestudiesoftheeffectsonemploymentofselectedWorldBankcleanenergyprojects(WorldBank2023d;WorldBank2023e;WorldBank2023f;WorldBank2023g;World

Bank2023h;WorldBank2023i;WorldBank2023l)

Deepdivesintotheimpactonjobsofclosureofcoal-firedpowerplants(WorldBank2023j);ofproductiveusesofelectricityassociatedwithminigridsinNigeria(WorldBank2023k);andoftheRusumoFallsHydropowerProject(WorldBank2023c).

Inadditiontothisreport,buildingontheabove-mentionedstreamsofanalysis,theprogramhasproducedadiscussionpapertosupportprojectdesign,“TrackingJobsinProjectsFocusedonCleanEnergyandProductiveUsesofElectricity”(WorldBank2023m).ThenoteprovidesstrategiesfortrackingandenhancingjobcreationthatcanbeusedintheWorldBankGroup’scleanenergylendingoperations.Italsodocumentsthejobcreationbenefitsofthediversesetofprojectsexaminedinthecasestudiesabove.

Thereportsunderthisprogramtogetheraimtosupportlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesinreapinggreatersocioeconomicbenefitsfromtheenergytransitionbysupportingtheminincreasingthenumberandqualityoflocaljobsgeneratedwhileimplementingcleanenergyprojects.

Thereportstargetmultipleaudiences,frompolicymakerstodevelopmentpractitionersandacademics.Theyalsoaimtofamiliarizeenergyspecialistswiththeeffectsofenergyprojectsonjobsandgivethemtoolsthatenablethemtotakeaccountof—and,wherepossible,maximize—thesocioeconomicbenefitsofthecleanenergytransition.

Reapingthebenefitsofthejobscreatedbycleanenergyinterventionswilldependoneffectiveplanningandpreparationintheearlystagesofprojectsandsustainedsupportduringtheirimplementation.

viii ABOUTTHISREPORT

Abbreviations

CGE computablegeneralequilibrium

DPOs DevelopmentPolicyOperations

DRE distributedrenewableenergy

EE energyefficiency

EJETP EskomJustEnergyTransitionProject

EPM ElectricityPlanningModel

ESMAP EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram

FTE full-timeequivalent

GDP grossdomesticproduct

GHG greenhousegases

IEA InternationalEnergyAgency

IO input-output

IRENA InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

LADP LocalAreaDevelopmentPlan

MW megawatt(s)

O&M operationandmaintenance

PIAAC ProgrammefortheInternationalAssessmentofAdultCompetencies

PUE productiveuseofelectricity

PV photovoltaics

RE renewableenergy

T&D transmissionanddistribution

VRE variablerenewableenergy

AllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$,USD),unlessotherwiseindicated.

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET ix

Glossary

Directjobs Jobsassociatedwiththedesign,development,management,

construction/installation,andmaintenanceofprojectsandprojectfacilities.

Employmentfactors Ajobs-per-megawattemploymentcalculation.

Full-timeequivalent Thenumberofhoursconsideredfull-timework.Forexample,

ifacompanyconsiders40hoursfulltime,thentwoemployeesworking20hoursperweekwouldequal1.0full-timeequivalent(FTE).

Indirectjobs Jobsassociatedwiththemanufacturingofequipmentand

materialsusedforafacility,thesupplychainthatprovidestherawmaterialsandservicesneededforthemanufacturingprocess,andthefinanceandbankingsectorsthatprovideservicesfortheconstructionandoperationofafacility.

Inducedjobs Jobscreatedduetothespendingofearningsbypersons

directlyandindirectlyemployedbyaproject.Inducedjobscanalsostemfromincreasedspendingusingconsumersavingsachievedthankstoenergyefficiency,thecostcompetitivenessofrenewablesorjobsstemmingfromproductiveusesofelectricityfromnewlyacquiredenergyaccess.

Localdevelopment Amultidimensionalconceptofchangebringingtogether

economic,social,cultural,andenvironmentaldimensions.Localdevelopmentmaybeseenasamethodthathelpsimprovequalityoflife,supportingoracceleratingtheempowermentofpeople,developingorpreservinglocalassets,strengtheningcohesion,anddefininganddeliveringgrassrootsdevelopmentprojects.

On-the-jobtraining Atrainingapproachbywhichtraineesacquiretheskillsand

competenciesneededforajobinanactualworkplaceenvironment.

Quasi-naturalexperiment Quasi-naturalexperimentsrefertoserendipitoussituationsin

whicheconomicagentsarerandomlyassignedtotreatment

orcontrolgroups,approximatingtherandomizeddesignofa

well-controlledexperimentandallowingcausalinference.

Pieceratecontract Apieceratecontractreferstopaymentperunitofworkrather

thanperunitoftime.

GLOSSARY

Randomizedcontroltrials Therandomizedcontroltrialisatrialinwhichsubjects

arerandomlyassignedtooneoftwogroups:one(the

experimentalgroup)receivingtheinterventionthatisbeing

tested,andtheother(thecomparisongrouporcontrol)

receivinganalternative(conventional)treatment.

Skillsdevelopment Theacquisitionofpracticalcompetencies,know-how,and

attitudesnecessarytoperformatradeoroccupationinthelabormarket.

Sociallicense Inthisreport,asociallicenseistheacceptancegrantedtoa

company,organization,orindustrybyacommunity.Theconceptencompassesacompany’sorindustry’sstandardbusinesspracticesandoperatingprocedures.

Socioeconomicbenefits Tangiblesocialandeconomicimprovementstoinequality,

poverty,andmarginalization,measuredthroughemployment,income,resourceaccess,andpowerandcontrol.Thisreportfocusesonthreecategoriesofsocioeconomicbenefits:

domesticvaluecreation,localdevelopment,andgenderequalityandsocialinclusion.

Technicalandvocational Aformofeducationdesignedtodeveloppracticalskills,

educationandtraining understanding,andknowledgerelatingtospecificoccupations,

ofteninthetrades(forexample,electricalworks,plumbing,etc.).

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET xi

KeyFindings

Theglobaltransitiontocleanenergymustaccelerateifglobalwarmingistobelimitedto1.5°Ctoavoiddevastatingclimatechange.Thetransitionwillresultindisruptivechangestoenergyproductionandconsumptionwiththegrowthofsustainableenergytechnologies,suchasrenewableenergyandenergyefficiency,atthesametimeastraditionalfossil-fuelindustrieswillprogressivelyphase-out.Thesechangeswillalsoresultinnewdemandsonenergyinfrastructure,suchastheexpansionofpowergridsandenergystorage.

ThemassiveinvestmentinsustainableenergyandtheinfrastructureupgradesrequiredforthetransitiontocleanenergywillprovideasignificantimpetustoGDPgrowthandjobcreation.Jobswillbecreatedintheenergysectorandintherelatedsectorsoftheeconomy.Atthesametime,jobsdependentonfossilfuelswilldecreaseovertime.Thesuccessofthistransitionwilldependcruciallyonhowtheimpactsonthelaborforce,i.e.,the‘jobstransition’,ismanaged,andparticularlywhetheritisseentobe‘just’tothosewhoarenegativelyimpacted.

Keyquestionsforpolicymakersthereforerelatetofacilitatingjobcreation,managingthejoblossesthatwillensue,andensuringthatthosewholosetheirlivelihoodsandwayoflifeduetotheenergytransitionaremadewhole.Inthecommunitiesthatareentirelydependentonfossilfuelsproduction,theimpactsoftheenergytransitioncanbeexistential,sothoughtfulandinclusiveplanningwillbeneededforaneconomicallyandsociallyacceptabletransition.

Whatkindsofjobswillthetransitiontocleanpowercreate?Whatskillswillworkersneedinthesenewjobs?Howcangovernmentstakeadvantageofsustainableenergyprojectstosupportlocalemploymentandthereforeincreasesocio-economicbenefitsoftheseprojects?

Internationalenergythinktanks,academia,theInternationalLabourOrganizationaswellastheWorldBankhaveshownthattheenergytransitionwillcreatesignificantnetadditionalemploymentintheenergyandassociatedsectorsandaboosttoeconomicgrowthandoveralljobsintheeconomythroughthenewenergyinvestment.Whetherthejobscreatedarelocalorcreatedabroadwilldeterminetheextenttowhichtheybenefitthelocaleconomy.

Jobsarecreateddirectlybypowersectorprojectsatallstages—design,construction,commissioning,operationandmaintenance,anddecommissioning.Aboutonethirdofthesejobsrequirehighlyskilledprofessionalswithtraininginengineering,finance,projectmanagement,law,etc.,whilethebalancerequireasemi-skilledorunskilledworkforceoftechnicians,constructionworkersanddiversesupportroles,oftenrecruitedlocally.WorldBankprojectexperienceshowsthatsustainableenergyjobsareattractive,withcompetitiveremunerationandgoodemploymentconditions.Forsemiskilledandunskilledpositionson-the-jobtrainingisoftenprovidedduetothelackofskillsneeded.Tomaximizedomesticjobcreation,governments,incollaborationwithprivatesector,shouldsetupappropriate

xii KEYFINDINGS

technicalandvocationaleducationprograms,preferablyintheareasdesignatedforfuturecleanenergydevelopment.Toincreasefemaleparticipation,governmentsshouldadoptagenderagendawithspecifictargetsandmandatesandfollowthroughonitsgoalsinindividualprojects.

Indirectjobsorjobscreatedupstreamofprojectinvestments,particularlythoserequiringhighlyspecializedskills,specialmaterials,orspecifictechnologies,areoftenlocatedinafewcountriesoverseas.Tomaximizethepotentialforlocalemploymentgenerationinthesupplychainsofcleanenergytechnologies,governmentsshouldidentifywhichpartsofthevaluechainsarealreadyproducedlocally–cement,aluminummountingstructuresorcablingwouldbetypicalexamples–andwhichpartsofthevaluechainscouldbedevelopedovertimeinacost-competitivemanner–heatpumps,efficientbuildinginsulationmaterials,energyefficientwindowsareexamplesoftheequipmentwhoselocalproduction,reflectingthespecificitiesofthelocalbuildingstock,couldbeworthwhiletopursue.Incountrieswithabundantmetalormineraldeposits,developmentofminingrelatedtomaterialsneededforcleanenergyequipmentisaclearavenuetopursue.

Jobsassociatedwiththeincreaseineconomicactivityduetoenergysectorinvestments,so-called‘induced’jobs,representmostofthejobscreatedbytheenergytransition.Theyarenotrestrictedtotheenergysectorandcouldultimatelybelongerlastingthanjobsassociateddirectlywithprojectconstructionoroperationsandmaintenance.Aregulatoryandpolicyframeworkthatfacilitatescreationandexpansionofbusinesses;assistslabormobility,andsupportsre-skillingisanimportantenablerofinducedjobcreation.Complementaryactionssuchasawarenessraising,accesstocreditandavailabilityofnewtechnologiesenablingproductiveuseofpowercanhelptoensureanincreaseinenterpriseproductivityrelatedtotheimprovedpowersupply.

Asfossilfuelsandtherelatedindustriesarephasingout,canthelaborreleasedinthisprocessbeemployedinsustainableenergysectors?Howcanthe‘jobstransitions’beassmoothaspossible?

Governmentsneedtoplantoreplacefossilfuelsbyassessingoptionsforinvestmentincleanenergyanddevelopingstrategiesforadoption.Thelossoffossilfueljobswillnottranslateone-for-oneintonewcleantechnologyjobs,complicatingthelabortransition.Decidingonrepurposingoptionsforexistingfossilfuelinfrastructureandfacilitiesshouldtakeintoconsiderationtheimplicationsofdifferentoptionsforgeneratinglocalbenefits,includingemployment.

WorldBankanalysishasshownthatthetasksinvolved,andskillsrequired,forcleanenergyjobsarequitedifferentfromthoserequiredinfossil-fueledpowerplants;indeed,jobsinthelatterareclosertothoseinconstructionandmanufacturing.Themostpromisingrepurposingoptionsmaythereforenotbeintheenergysectorandwhendecisionsaremadeitisimportanttotakeintoaccounttheskillsetsandjobtransitionpreferencesofcurrentemployees.

Thetransitionprocessforthelaborforceshouldincludeadeterminationofwhichworkerswouldretire,whichcouldbere-skilledandthejobstheycouldbere-deployedto.Governmentswillneedtodesignthecorrespondingeducationalandtrainingprogramstofosterskills

JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANET xiii

neededfordevelopmentofcleanenergytechnologiesorotherindustriesidentifiedforre-deploymentoflabor,consistentwiththecountry’sstrategicandpolicyobjectivesandtointernationalstandards.Theywillneedtocreatelabortransitionpathsthatarecrediblefromaskillspointofviewandlifestylepointofview,andtheywillneedtoconductactivelabormarketoutreachtoenhanceawarenessofcareeropportunitiesincleanenergy.Coordinationandcollaborationbetweendifferentministrieswillbecrucialinthisrespect,whilethefeedbackfromtheprivatesectorremainscrucialtodelivergovernmentalprogramscorrespondingtothedemandsofthenewlabormarkets.

xiv KEYFINDINGS

ExecutiveSummary

Theglobaltransitiontocleanenergymustaccelerateifglobalwarmingistobelimitedto1.5°Candtheeffectsofclimatechangemitigated.Fortheenergysector,thetransitioninvolvesreplacingfossilfuelswithcleansourcesofenergyandelectrifyingtraditionallyunelectrifiedareas(suchastransport,heating,andindustrialprocesses)whileworkingtowarduniversalaccesstocleanenergyservices.

Disruptivechangesinproductionandconsumptionintheeconomywillresultfromphasingouttraditionalfossil-fuelindustriesandpromotingsustainabl