南北贸易与环境【外文翻译】

外文翻译原文North-SouthTradeandtheEnvironmentMaterialSource:TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomicsAuthor:Copeland,TaylorAsimplestaticmodelofNorth-Southtradeisdevelopedtoexaminelinkagesbetweennationalincome,pollution,andinternationaltrade.Twocountriesproduceacontinuumofgoods,eachdifferinginpollutionintensity.Weshowthatthehigherincomecountrychoosesstrongerenvironmentalprotection,andspecializesinrelativelycleangoods.Byisolatingthescale,composition,andtechniqueeffectsofinternationaltradeonpollution,weshowthatfreetradeincreasesworldpollution;anincreaseintherichNorthproductionpossibilitiesincreasespollution,whilesimilargrowthinthepoorSouthlowerspollution;andunilateraltransfersfromNorthtoSouthreduceworldwidepollution.I.INTRODUCTIONOneofthemostinterestingdevelopmentsintradepolicyinrecentyearshasbeentheemergenceoftradeliberalizationasanenvironmentalissue.?Inadditiontofacingtraditionalprotectionistpressures,recentinitiativessuchastheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreementandtheUruguayRoundofGATTnegotiationshavebeenquestionedonthegroundsthattheymightincreasepollution.Thishasledtomuchdebateabouttheenvironmentalconsequencesoffreetrade.Proponentsoffreertradearguethatenvironmentalqualityisanormalgood,andhencetrade-inducedincomegainsshouldcreatepoliticaldemandsfortougherenvironmentalstandards.Tougherstandardsshouldinturnbringforthcleanertechniquesofproduction.Skeptics,however,pointoutthatifproductionmethodsdonotchange,thenpollutionmustriseastradeincreasesthescaleofeconomicactivity.Moreover,ifenvironmentalqualityisanormalgood,thenlessdevelopedcountrieswilladoptrelativelylowenvironmentalstandards.Asaresult,becauseofasymmetriesintheworlddistributionofincome,freetrademayaffectthecompositionofnationaloutputwithmanydevelopingcountriesturningtowardrelativelypollution-intensiveactivities.GrossmanandKrueger[19911andothershaverecentlybeguntoinvestigatetheempiricalsignificanceofeachoftheseeffects,buttheissuehasreceivedrelativelylittleattentioninthetheoreticalliterature.Thispapertakesafirststeptowardclarifyingthetheoreticalissuesbydevelopingasimplestatictwo-countrygeneralequilibriummodelinwhichincome-induceddifferencesinenvironmentalpolicycreateincentivestotrade.Usingthisframework,wefirstdefinethescale,technique,andcompositioneffects,2andlinktheirmagnitudestotastes,technologies,andendowments.Wethenusethisdecompositiontoexaminehowpollutionlevelsareaffectedbytradeliberalization,exogenousincreasesinproductioncapacity(scale-inducedincreasesinincome),andinternationaltransfers(redistributionsofworldincome).Weemphasizeincomeeffectsbecausetheydeterminethestrengthofthetechniqueeffectmentionedabove,aretiedtothescaleofeconomicactivity,andcandeterminehowfreetradeaffectsthecompositionofnationaloutputsandoverallpollutionlevels.Sincetheprimaryobjectiveofthepaperistoinvestigatefactorsdeterminingthelevelandinternationalincidenceofpollution,wefocusonpositiveratherthannormativeissues.Aswell,wesimplifytheanalysisbyassumingthatthedamagecausedbypollutionisconfinedtothecountryofemission.3Asaconsequence,itisperhapswisetoremindthereaderattheoutsetthatincreasesinpollutionlevelsshouldnotbeviewedasequivalenttodecreasesinwelfare.Infact,tradeisalwayswelfare-improvinginourmodel,evenwhenitraisespollutionlevels.Ourresultsindicatethatincreasesineconomicactivityperseneednotlowerenvironmentalqualitybecauseincomeeffectscanleadtotheadoptionofcleanertechniquesofproduction.However,thisconclusionmustbetemperedwhenwemovetoanopeneconomy:wefindthatopennesstointernationalmarketsfundamentallyaltersthewayinwhichincomeeffectsdeterminepollutionlevels.Forexample,inourmodel,economicgrowth4inautarkyhasnoeffectonpollutionlevels,buteconomicgrowthinatradingenvironmentcanraisepollutionlevels.Moreover,thedistributionofgrowthacrosscountriesmatters:growthintherichNorthmayincreasepollution,whilegrowthinthepoorSouthlowerspollution.Freertrade,likegrowth,raisesrealincomes,butitalsochangesthecompositionofnationaloutputandhencealtersboththeincidenceandlevelofpollutionacrosscountries.Ifthepatternoftrade-inducedspecializationisdrivenonlybydifferencesinpollutionpolicy,thenaggregateworldpollutionmayrisewithtrade.Themodelthatwedevelophasthreekeyfeaturesdesignedtocapturewhatwefeelaretheessentials.First,sincemostoftheconcernovertheeffectofinternationaltradeonenvironmentalqualityismotivatedbyinternationaldifferencesinpollutionpolicy,weadoptaNorth-Southframeworkinwhichthereisalargeincomedisparityacrosscountries.Togeneratethisdisparityinincome,westartwithamodelwherecountriesdifferonlyinthelevelofhumancapitalperperson.5Asaresult,income-induceddifferencesinthelevelofpollutiontaxesarethesoledeterminantoftradeflows.Thispermitsaninvestigationofwhethertradethatismotivatedbydifferencesinenvironmentalpolicyisinherentlypollution-creating,andthesimplicitytherebygainedalsoallowsustodecomposeanychangeinpollutionlevelsintoscale,technique,andcompositioneffects.Inreality,ofcourse,tradeisinfluencedbymanyconflictingfactors.However,asafirststepinunderstandingtheinteractionbetweentradeandtheenvironment,itisusefultoisolatetheimpactofenvironmeiitalstandardsonthepatternoftrade.6Tomakeinferencesabouttheactualpatternoftrade,onewouldhavetoweightheinfluencesderivedfromenvironmentalpolicyagainstotherdeterminantsoftrade.Currentestimatesofenvironmentalcontrolcostsarerelativelysmall[Dean19921.However,marginalcontrolcostsareinmanycaseshigherthanaveragecosts,andthissuggeststhatenvironmentalcontrolcostsarelikelytobecomeanincreasinglyimportantinfluenceontradeinthefuture.Second,toprovidealinkbetweenincomelevelsandenvironmentalpolicy,weassumethatbenevolentplanningauthoritiesineachcountrysetpollutiontaxestooffsetthemarginaldamagefromemissions.Thisassumptionensuresthatpollutionisoptimallyprovidedinbothautarkyandtradeand,moreover,thatgovernmentsadjustpollutionpolicyinresponsetochangedeconomiccircumstancessuchasgrowthortrade.Whilethismayreflectanoverlyoptimisticbeliefinthecapabilitiesofgovernmentpolicy,itisthesimplestwaytocapturetheviewthatgovernmentsareresponsivetothepreferencesoftheircitizens.Finally,tocapturetheeffectofdifferingstandardsofenvironmentalprotectionontradepatterns,weadoptamany-goodgeneralequilibriummodelbasedonDornbusch,Fischer,andSamuelson[19771.Byadoptingageneralequilibriumapproach,weensurethatthefullimpactofenvironmentalpolicycanbetracedthroughtoitsultimateeffectsonfactormarkets,incomes,andtradeflows.Amany-goodframeworkallowsustohighlightcompositioneffects.If,asweassume,industriesdifferintheirpollutionintensities,thenchangesinthecompositionofoutputarisingfromfreetradewillaffectbothnationalandworldpollutionlevels.Severalpreviousstudies[BaumolandOates1988;Pethig1976;Siebertetal.1980;McGuire19821haveinvestigatedtheeffectsofpollutionpolicyonthepatternoftrade.Pethig[19761extendsthetwo-goodRicardianmodeltoincludepollution,andshowsthatiftwocountriesareidentical,exceptthattheyexogenouslysetdifferentemissionstandards,thenthecountrywhichallowsahigherlevelofpollutionemissionswillexportthepollution-intensivegood.Siebertetal.[19801andMcGuire[19821extendtheanalysistothecaseoftwoprimaryfactors.Pollutionpolicyinallofthesemodels,however,isexogenous.Byendogenizingpolicyinthepresentpaper,weexplainthepatternoftradeasafunctionoftheunderlyingtechnologyandendowments,ratherthanasmerelyreflectingexogenouspolicydifferences.Thisallowsustoexamineexplicitlytherolethatincomedifferencesmayplayindeterminingthepatternoftrade.Thisissue,whichisthesubjectofmuchpolicydebate,hasnotbeenaddressedinpreviousformalmodels.Recentempiricalworkintheareaismixed.GrossmanandKrueger[1991]examinedataonairpollutionlevelsin43developedanddevelopingcountriesandconcludethatpollutionlevelsfirstriseandthenfallwithpercapitaincome.Therefore,iftradeliberalizationraisesincomes,itmayalsolowerpollutionlevels.LowandYeats[1992,p.941findthattheshareofworldtradeaccountedforbypollution-intensiveproductshasexperiencedaseculardeclinefrom20.4percentin1965to15.9percentin1988;buttheexportshareofsuch“dirty”goodshasbeenincreasingformanydevelopingcountries.Inaddition,Lucas,Wheeler,andHettige[19921findthatalthoughmanydevelopedcountriesareexperiencingafallinthepollutionintensityofnationalproduct,thisappearstobeduetoachangeinthecompositionofoutputandnotamovementtowardcleanerproductionmethods.Theselasttworesultssuggestthatinternationaltrademaybeservingasavehiclefordirtyindustrymigrationtolessdevelopedcountries.Whileourmodelishighlystylizedandabstractsfromotherimportantdeterminantsoftrade,itprovidesausefulstartingpointfromwhichtointerprettheearlierempiricalwork..Itisimportant,however,torecognizethelimitationsofouranalysis.Forexample,opennesstointernationalmarketsmaymeanlessdevelopedcountriesgainaccesstobetterpollutionabatementtechnologyandtointernationalcapitalmarkets.Ouranalysislimitstheeffectsofopennesstothosearisingfromgoodstrade.Aswell,ourconclusionsfollowfromadecidedlystarkmodel.Whileweareabletoderiveunambiguousanswerstomanyquestionsandclearlyidentifytheforcesatwork,thereismuchscopeforfutureworkaimedatrelaxingsomeofourassumptions.Theremainderofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.SectionIIsetsoutourassumptionsonpreferencesandtechnologies.AsimplediagrammaticframeworktoanalyzetheequilibriumisdevelopedinSectionIII.SectionIVexplorestherelationbetweeninternationaltradeandthelevelofpollution;wealsoderivethescale,technique,andcompositioneffectsatthispoint.TheeffectsofeconomicgrowthandinternationaltransfersonpollutionareinvestigatedinSectionsVandVI.SectionVIIconsiderssomeextensionsofthemodel,andSectionVIIIconcludes.VIII.CONCLUSIONThispaperhaspresentedasimplemodeltoexaminehowtradebetweentwocountriesdifferentiatedsolelybyincomecanaffectenvironmentalquality.Ourmostimportantresultsarethatincomegainsarisingfromanopportunitytotradecanaffectpollutioninadifferentwaythanincomegainsobtainedthrougheconomicgrowthand,moreover,thateconomicgrowthhasdifferenteffectsonpollutioninafreetraderegimethaninautarky.Ifenvironmentalpolicyissetoptimally,thenpotentialincreasesinpollutiongeneratedbyeconomicgrowthinautarkycanbepreventedbyapolicy-inducedswitchtocleanermethodsofproduction.Givenourassumptiononsubstitutionpossibilitiesinproductionandconsumption,growthinautarkyhasaneutraleffectonpollution:thetechniqueeffectfullyoffsetsthescaleeffect.However,internationaltradeopensupadifferentchannelthatmayneverthelessleadtoanincreaseinworldpollution.Whiletrade,likegrowth,increasesrealincomesinbothcountries,italsocreatesacompositioneffectthatiscriticalindeterminingtheeffectoftradeonpollution.Ifdifferencesinpollutiontaxesaretheonlymotivefortrade,andtradedoesnotequalizefactorprices,thenamovementfromautarkytofreetradeincreasesaggregateworldpollution.Compositioneffectsalsodeterminetheimpactofasymmetriceconomicgrowthonpollutioninfreetrade.Evenif,asinourmodel,thepollution-generatingeffectsofsymmetricgrowthacrosscountriesareexactlyoffsetbystricterenvironmentalpolicy,themigrationofindustriesinducedbyasymmetricgrowthhasimportantandinterestingeffectsonpollutionthroughthecompositioneffect.Consequently,economicgrowthintheNorthhasmuchdifferenteffectsontheenvironmentthaneconomicgrowthintheSouth.Whileourmodelisstylizedandmanyofitsparticularresultsmodel-specific,muchoftheintuitionspringsfrommoregeneralfactorendowmentconsiderations.Mostofourresultsfollowfromjusttwosuppositions:(1)tradehasatendencytoreduce,butnotfullyeliminate,internationaldifferencesinfactorpricesifcountriesaresufficientlydifferent;and(2),inautarky,therelativepriceofpollution-intensivegoodsishigherinrelativelyhigh-incomecountries.Thefirstofthesesuppositionsisaquitegeneralresult.Thesecondismuchmoretenuous,butitclearlyholdsinoursimplemodel.Inmoregeneralfactorendowmentmodelsitmaynot.Nevertheless,thesimplestructureofourmodelisavirtuesinceitlaysbarethebasicrelationshipsdrivingourresults,andatoncesuggestsextensionsofthemodelthatcanonlyenhanceourunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweenpollutionandinternationaltrade.译文南北贸易与环境资料来源：经济学季刊作者：科普,泰勒一个简单研究考察南北贸易之间的联系以及污染、国民收入、国际贸易之间的联系的静态模型。两国之间生产一种连续的商品,每个污染强度不同。我们的分析表明,在高收入国家选择更环保、专业、比较干净的货物。通过分离的规模、结构和技术上的国际贸易的影响,结果表明自由贸易会增长全球污染;增加北部富人生产的可能性增加,而相似的成长环境中,贫穷的南部污染减少,全球污染单方面转移从北到南递减。一.

摘要近年来出现的最有趣的一个发展中的贸易政策是贸易自由化的环境问题。除了面对传统的贸易保护主义压力,近年来的首创,如北美自由贸易协议和受到质疑的关贸总协定的乌拉圭回合谈判,他们可能会增加的污染。这引发了很多关于自由贸易的环境后果的争议。自由贸易的支持者认为环境质量有固定的标准,因此贸易导致的收入会创造的政治需求,要求采取更强硬的环保标准。强硬的标准会反而带来清洁生产技术。怀疑论者指出,如果生产方法不改变,就必须增加污染行业的规模经济活动。而且,如果环境质量有固定的标准,不发达国家将会采取较低的环保标准。结果,由于世界上收入分配的不对称,自由贸易可能影响国民产出的组成，许多发展中国家开始转向相对污染密集型的活动。克鲁格[19911葛劳斯曼,以及其他最近开始调查。早期版本的文章是在西蒙大学和英国哥伦比亚大学联合研讨会在国际贸易中,美国中西部的国际经济学在匹兹堡会议在1992年10月,在1993年夏季)。我们感谢参加他们的评论。我们也感谢裁判有用的建议。科普兰承认支持SSHRC研究奖助金。本文首先通过麻醉药的理论问题,开发出了一种简单的静态的两国的一般均衡模型,其中收入导致环境政策贸易的不同。使用此架构,我们首先应明确规模、技术、结构效应和环节,其大小味道,技术和捐款。我们就用这个分解,研究如何受到污染的程度,外源增加贸易自由化的生产能力(scale-induced增加收入)、国际转移(世界收入)。我们强调收入效应,因为他们决定以上提到的技术效应的强度，依赖经济活动的规模,可以决定自由贸易如何影响、综合污染水平国家输出。由于最初的目的是调查决定国际发病率的水平的因素,我们关注的是其积极一面而不是规范问题。同样，我们通过简化分析假设污染造成的损失是局限于这个国家的.作为一种结果,或许这是明智的提醒读者污染程度加大的开始,而不应视为相当于减少福利。事实上甚至是提出的污染程度,贸易总是增加福利的模式。结果表明,增加经济活动本身不需要较低的环境质量,因为收入会导致采用清洁生产技术。然而,这个结论必须搬到开放经济:我们发现,收入决定污染程度，这从根本上改变对国际市场的开放。例如,在我们的模型中,经济增长不影响污染水平,但是经济增长在贸易环境中会导致污染水平的提高。另外,国家的分布:增长在富裕的北部可能会加剧污染,而增长较低的贫穷的南部污染会减弱。贸易自由,就像生长,提高实际收入,它也改变了国家输出，因此同时改变了构成的发生率和各国的污染程度。如果贸易导致的专业化的模式只能通过不同的政策,那么污染可能会随着交易上升。我们发展研究该模型有三个主要特点。首先,由于多数的关注,国际贸易的影响环境质量是由于国际上污染政策的差异。我们采用南北贸易模型，各国收入差距很大。收入产生的差距,我们开始以一个国家人力资本水平的不同作为模型。结果,收入导致的不同水平的污染税是唯一决定性的贸易流量。本许可证的一项调查中,贸易环境政策上的差异是否是固有的,简单创造污染因而获得也使得我们的任何变化分解成比例的污染程度,技术,和结构效应。事实上,当然,贸易受诸多矛盾因素的影响。然而,作为第一步理解贸易与环境之间的相互作用,在贸易模式中隔离环境标准的影响式是很有用的。对实际贸易模式作出推论，必须权衡影响源自环境政策与其它贸易决定因素。最新的估计环境控制成本是比较小的。[Dean

1992]然而,边际控制成本在很多情况下高于平均成本,这表明环境控制成本很可能在将来成为一个贸易上越来越重要的影响。第二,提供一种收入水平和环境政策之间的连接,我们认为在每个国家的慈善规划当局设定污染税来弥补二氧化碳的排放量所造成的的边际损害。这种假设保证污染是自给自足和贸易的最佳提供,此外,政府污染政策的调整改变了像增长或贸易的经济环境。这可能反映出一个政府政策容量上过于乐观的信念,这是捕捉认为政府顺应他们的公民喜好的最简单的方法。最后,捕捉在贸易格局中的不同环境保护标准下的效果,我们采用基于多费,萨缪尔森[1977]的many-good一般均衡模型。我们采用一般均衡分析方法来保证环境政策的全面影响可以追溯到市场根本影响因素、收入、贸易流。many-good框架让我们突出结构效应。如果我们假设,工业污染强度不同,然后自由贸易输出上升引起的结构变化将影响全国和世界的污染程度。几个先前的研究.[Baumoland