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ISLANDINSIGHTS

Analyzing

FloodRisksin

SãoToméePríncipe,DistrictbyDistrict

SurgingSeas

andIncreasing

Rains

Disclaimer

©2024TheWorldBank,AllRightsReserved.

ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.

ThefundingforthisfloodriskstudywasprovidedbyPROBLUE,amultidonortrustfundadministeredbyTheWorldBank,whichsupportsthesustainableandintegrateddevelopmentofmarineandcoastalresourcesinhealthyoceans.

RightsandPermissions

Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornon-commercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven.

Attribution—Pleasecitethisreportas:WorldBank.2024.“IslandInsights:SurgingSeasandIncreasingRains—AnalyzingFloodRisksinSãoToméandPríncipe,DistrictbyDistrict.”Washington,DC:WorldBank.

AllphotoscourtesyoftheWorldBankorpurchasedfromImageBanks.

Coverphoto:PraiaMelão,SãoToméePríncipe

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ThisfloodriskstudywasledbytheWorldBank’sNaturalResourcesManagement

SpecialistandTaskTeamLeadJoãoMouraandwascarriedoutbyAndreasBurzel

(ConsultantExpert:FloodRiskManagement).Mostofthetechnicalinteractions

weresupportedbyWorldBankSeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist

JoãodeLimaRego,whoalsofacilitatedtheriskassessmentthroughseveralfield

visitsandotherinsights.

Thereportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutimportantinputsfromvarious

nationalagencies,includingtheInstitutoNacionaldeEstatística(INE,National

InstituteofStatistics),ConselhoNacionaldePreparaçãoeRespostasàsCatástrofes

(CONPREC,NationalDisasterPreparednessandResponseCouncil),theMinistério

daSaúdeedosDireitosdaMulher(MinistryofHealthandWomen’sRights),and

theMinistériodaEducação,CulturaeCiências(MinistryofEducation,Culture

andScience).

Specialthankstothenever-tiringWestAfricaCoastalAreas

ManagementProgramProjectImplementationUnit(WACAPIU),with

ArlindoCarvalhoandAbnildedeCeitaLimabeingthemostactive

contributorstothisstudy.

Theteamalsoextendsaspecialthankstothefollowing

colleagueswithintheWorldBank:EnriqueDelCastillo

(GISSpecialist)andBastienLoloum(Natural

ResourcesManagementSpecialist),aswellas

thereviewers,NatashaDeAndradeFalcao

(SeniorEconomist),JoãoPires(SeniorHealth

Specialist),PilarSalgadoOtonel(Senior

PrivateSectorSpecialist),andBrenden

Jongman(SeniorDisasterRiskManagement

Specialist).

Thistechnicalassistancewasfundedby

PROBLUE,anumbrellamultidonortrust

fundadministeredbytheWorldBankthat

supportsthesustainableandintegrated

developmentofmarineandcoastalresources

inahealthyocean.Theteamwouldliketo

expressitsgratitudetoallPROBLUEdonors

formakingthisworkpossible.

Contents

Disclaimer

ii

Acknowledgements iii

Abbreviations 1

ExecutiveSummary 2

1Introduction 6

2Methodology 10

2.1ExpectedRiskOutcomes11

2.2ApproachtoRiskAssessment11

2.3DataCollectionandPreparation12

2.3.1HazardDatasets12

2.3.2Exposuredata12

2.3.3VulnerabilityFunctions18

3

MainFindings 21

3.1AllBuildings21

3.2Populationaffected23

3.3Healthsectorinfrastructure23

3.4Educationsectorinfrastructure25

3.5Tourismsectorinfrastructure27

3.6Totalrisk29

3.7Summary30

4Conclusions 32

Bibliography 36

Annex1:HazardDataReview

39

Annex2:Calculationofaverageexposurevalues 4

0

Annex3:Examplesforsmallscalefloodprotectionmeasures 41

Annex4:FloodMapsforselectedlocationsoftouristicimportance 45

Annex5:AALTablesperSector 47

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LISTOFFIGURES

Figure1:Keyresultsfordifferentsectorsandclimateconditionsinvestigatedinthisfloodrisk

assessmentforSãoToméandPríncipe

Figure2:Overviewriskmapsforbuildings,population,andassessedsectorsunderpresent

andfutureclimatescenarios

Figure3:LocationofSãoToméandPríncipe

Figure4:WACA’skeyaccomplishmentsinSãoTomé(ST)andRegiãoAutónomadoPríncipe

(RAP,AutonomousRegionofPríncipe)

Figure5:IllustrationofthecomputationalCRA-subgrid

Figure6:FloodmapsforthecityofSantoAntónio

Figure7:Buildingfootprintswithindividualpolygons

Figure8:ExamplesofpredominantbuildingtypologiesinSãoToméandPríncipe

Figure9:ComparisonbetweenINEdataandthefinalCRA-subgridforSantoAntónio

Figure10:ExampleofthehealthcarefacilitiesdatasetintheareaofSãoTomé

Figure11:Exampleofschooldatasetwithschooltypeandnumberofstudentsperpointin

theareaofSãoTomé

Figure12:Depth-damagefunctionforbuildingsfromDeVilliersetal.2007withpolynomialfit

anditsequation

Figure13:Comparisonofdepth-damagefunctionsforhealthcarefacilitiesfromtwopreviousstudies

Figure14:SchoolbuildinginthevillageofSantaCatarina(SantaCatarinadistrict)

Figure15:SantaCatarinawithpresentandfuturefloodextents

Figure16:Floodmapforthe1-in-100floodscenario(presentclimate)forPostoNovoApostolica

inthecityofSantoAntónioonPríncipe

Figure17:Floodmapforthe1-in-100floodscenarioforSantoAntónioeducationinfrastructure

Figure18:AerialphotoshowingthenetworkofcoastalandfluvialprotectionwallsaroundHotelPraiaFigure19:AnoverviewofdirecteconomicfloodriskpersectorandtotaleconomicfloodriskforSTP

Figure20:Anoverviewofannualfloodingimpactspersector

Figure21:Overviewriskmapsforbuildings,population,healthcarefacilities,educationsector,

tourismsector,andtotalfloodriskunderpresent(2020)andfutureclimateconditions

Figure22:Fine-resolutionfloodriskresultsforthecityofSãoTomé

Figure23:Keyfindingsforthedifferentsectorsandclimateconditionsinvestigatedinthis

floodriskassessmentforSãoToméandPríncipe

Figure24:FloodextentanddestroyedbridgeinSantaCatarina(SantaCatarinadistrict)

Figure25:FloodextentforNeves(Lembadistrict)

Figure26:OverheadviewoftheareaaroundHotelPestanaoverlaidwithhazardmap

Figure27:AreaaroundHotelPestanahighlightingwherethenexttwophotosweretaken

Figure28:PhotographofHotelPestana(northernedge)

Figure29:PhotographofHotelPestana(southernedge)

Figure30:OverheadviewoftheareaaroundHotelPraiaoverlaidwithhazardmap

Figure31:AreaaroundHotelPraiahighlightingwherethenextthreephotosweretaken

Figure32:ExampleofcoastalwallsnearHotelPraia

Figure33:OverheadviewofSãoToméairportandaccessroadsoverlaidwithhazarddata

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Figure34:OverheadviewofPríncipeairportandaccessroadsoverlaidwithhazarddata

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Figure35:OverheadviewofNationalRoadEN2nearIóGrandeoverlaidwithhazarddata

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Figure36:OverheadviewofSantoAntóniooverlaidwithhazarddata

46

LISTOFTABLES

Table1:FloodscenariosfortheislandofSãoTomé

Table2:FloodscenariosfortheislandofPríncipe

Table3:Averageexposurevaluesforthebuildingtypologies(timberand

concretebuildings)derivedfromthe2019communitystudy

Table4:Directeconomicfloodriskforbuildingsunderpresentclimate(2020)

Table5:Numberofnumberpeopleaffectedbyfloodingunderpresent

climateconditions

Table6:Directeconomicfloodriskforhealthcarefacilitiesundercurrent

climateconditions

Table7:Numberofpupilsaffectedonannualaverageperclimatescenario

andschooltype

Table8:Numberofschoolchildrenaffectedbyfloodingunderpresentclimate

conditions

Table9:Touristbuildings’economicfloodriskunderpresentclimateconditions

Table10:Averagesizeofhealthcarefacilitiesforprimary(L1)andsecondary(L2)

facilities(standarddeviationinbrackets)

Table11:Averageschoolsizeperstudentforthecalculationofschoolbuilding

size(standarddeviationinbrackets)

Table12:Totalnumberofbuildingsaffectedbyflooding(threshold:0.2m),

2020climate

Table13:Percentageofsmallbuildings(below180squaremeters)affected

byflooding(threshold:0.2m),2020climate

Table14:Percentageofallbuildingsaffectedbyflooding(threshold:0.2m),

2020climate

Table15:Percentageoflargebuildings(above180squaremeters)affectedby

flooding(threshold:0.2m),2020climate

Table16:Totalbuildingdamages,2020climate

Table17:Totalbuildingdamages,2050climate

Table18:Totalbuildingdamages,2080climate

Table19:Numberofpeopleaffectedbyflooding,2020climate

Table20:Numberofpeopleaffectedbyflooding,2050climate

Table21:Numberofpeopleaffectedbyflooding,2080climate

Table22:Percentageofpeopleaffectedbyflooding,2020climate

Table23:Percentageofpeopleaffectedbyflooding,2050climate

Table24:Percentageofpeopleaffectedbyflooding,2080climate

Table25:Numberofpeopleaffectedbyfloodingofhealthcarefacilities,2020climate

Table26:Numberofpeopleaffectedbyfloodingofhealthcarefacilities,2050climate

Table27:Numberofpeopleaffectedbyfloodingofhealthcarefacilities,2080climate

Table28:Healthcarefacilitieseconomicfloodrisk,2020climate

Table29:Healthcarefacilitieseconomicfloodrisk,2050climate

Table30:Healthcarefacilitieseconomicfloodrisk,2080climate

Table31:Schoolbuildingeconomicfloodrisk,2020climate

Table32:Schoolbuildingeconomicfloodrisk,2050climate

Table33:Schoolbuildingeconomicfloodrisk,2080climate

Table34:Numberofpupilsaffected,2020climate

Table35:Numberofpupilsaffected,2050climate

Table36:Numberofpupilsaffected,2080climate

Table37:Touristbuildingseconomicfloodrisk,2020climate

Table38:Touristbuildingseconomicfloodrisk,2050climate

Table39:Touristbuildingseconomicfloodrisk,2080climate

Table40:Averagewaterdepthswithintouristpropertyareas,2020climate

Table41:Numberofbedsaffected(threshold:0.2m),2020climate

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1

Abbreviations

AAL

CBA

CONPREC

CRA

DTMs

GDP

GFDRR

GIS

GTSM

INE

JRC

MIRNMA

RAP

SIDS

ST

STP

US$

WACA

WACAPIU

Averageannualloss

Cost-benefitanalysis

ConselhoNacionaldePreparaçãoeRespostasàsCatástrofes

(NationalDisasterPreparednessandResponseCouncil)

Cell-basedriskassessment

Digitalterrainmodels

Grossdomesticproduct

GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery

Geographicinformationsystem

TheDeltaresGlobalTideandSurgeModel

InstitutoNacionaldeEstatística(NationalStatisticsInstitute)

JointResearchCenterfortheEuropeanCommission

MinistériodasInfraestruturas,RecursosNaturaiseMeioAmbiente

(MinistryofInfrastructure,NaturalResources,

andEnvironment)

RegiãoAutónomadoPríncipe

(AutonomousRegionofPríncipe)

SmallIslandDevelopingState

SãoTomé

SãoToméandPríncipe

UnitedStatesdollars

WestAfricaCoastalAreas

ManagementProgram

WestAfricaCoastalAreas

ManagementProgram

ProjectImplementationUnit

AnalyzingFloodRisksinSãoToméePríncipe,DistrictbyDistrict

Executive

Summary

SantaCatarina,SãoToméePríncipe

3

SãoToméandPríncipe(STP)isaSmallIslandDevelopingState

(SIDS)withafragileeconomy,enduringdouble-insularityandhigh

susceptibilitytoexternalshocks.Itisespeciallyvulnerabletothe

effectsofclimatechangethroughincreasedprecipitationandsea-level

rise,becausemostofthepopulationlivesalongthecoastandnearrivers.

CommunitiesinSTPhavealreadyexperienceddevastatinglossesoflifeandpropertyduetowater-relatedhazards.Forexample,floodsduetointenserainfallinDecember2021causeduptoabout€33million(US$36million)indamages—forarainfalleventassociatedwithareturnperiodofabout20years.Asclimateconditionscontinuetochange,thecountrywillconfrontaseriesofincreasinglycostlyadaptationchoicestoprotectessentialinfrastructuresuchasschools,hospitals,andgovernmentbuildings.

Thisstudy’saimwastoassessthegrowingfloodriskSTPfacesduetoclimatechange.Itachievedthisbycarryingoutanationwideriskassessmentforriverineandcoastalflooding.Thestudyusedrecentlycompletedhigh-resolutionnationalfloodhazarddataforthepresentclimate(2020)andtwoprojectedclimates(in2050and2080),basedontheclimatescenarioSharedSocioeconomicPathways(SSP)3-7.0,amediumtohighreferencescenarioresultingfromnoadditionalclimatepolicyundertheSSP3socioeconomicdevelopmentnarrative.

Thisfloodriskassessmentexaminesthepotentialimpactsandriskstopeople,buildings,healthcarefacilities,theeducationsector,andtourismunderbothpresentandfutureclimateconditions.Itshowsthatfloodriskisdrivenfrequentfloodevents.Thereisasignificantincreaseoffloodriskunderfutureclimateconditions.

Thestudy’sresultshighlightthefollowing:

•Theexpectedyearlylossesduetofloods,onaverage,areprojectedtobe1.9percentofSTP’sGDPin2020,2.8percentin2050,and4.1percentin2080.Thismeansthattheoverallfloodriskmorethandoubleswithin60years,notconsideringotherdevelopmentsduringthatperiodsuchaspopulationincreaseandsocioeconomicgrowth.

•Underpresentclimateconditions,about18,500peopleareaffectedbyfloodingeachyearonaverage,whichrepresents8percentofSTP’stotalpopulation.Thenumberofpeopleaffectedbyfloodsonannualaverageisexpectedtoincreaseto23,000in2080—anincreaseof25percentfrom2020.Undercurrentclimateconditions,thesubdistrictsofMalanzaandSantaCatarinaaremostaffected,at33percentand41percentoftheirpopulations,respectively.However,thehighesttotalnumberofpeopleaffectedisinthesubdistrictofSãoTomé,withalmost4,500people(5.4percentofthesubdistrict’spopulation)affectedonannualaverage.

•Healthcareinfrastructureriskresultsshowaseeminglylowaverageannualloss(AAL)ofUS$66,000peryearunderpresentclimateconditions.However,duetotherelativelylowdensityofhealthcarefacilitiesonSTP,accesstohealthcarecouldbelimitedforupto45,000inhabitants(20percentofthecountry’spopulation).Thisestimateishigherthanthenumberofpeopledirectlyaffectedbyfloods,highlightingthelargeimpactofhealthcareinfrastructuredamageforthecitizensofSTP.

•Thetourismsectorisexposedtoahighleveloffloodrisk.Thisisunsurprising,giventhatmostassetsarelocatedincloseproximitytothecoast.TheAALfortourismbuildingsisUS$470,000peryear,increasingtoUS$660,000peryearin2050andUS$1millionperyearin2050(anincreaseof42percentand113percent,respectively).Asthescaleofthisstudydoesnotconsidereverylocalflooddefencebuiltbyhoteldevelopers,Chapter3.5willexplainhowtointerprettheseexpectedannualdamages.

AnalyzingFloodRisksinSãoToméePríncipe,DistrictbyDistrict

4

Figure1:KeyresultsfordifferentsectorsandclimateconditionsinvestigatedinthisfloodriskassessmentforSãoToméandPríncipe

Allbuildings

2020:US$8.4million/year

2050:US$12.1million/year

2080:US$17.9million/year

1.5%ofGDP(2023)

2.2%ofGDP(2023)

3.3%ofGDP(2023)

Populationaffected

2020:18,500people/year

8%ofthepopulation

2050:20,500people/year

9%ofthepopulation

2080:23,000people/year

10%ofthepopulation

Healthsector

2020:US$66,000/year

20%ofthepopulation

2050:US$77,400/year

33%ofthepopulation

2080:US$116,200/year

37%ofthepopulation

Educationsector

2020:US$58,800/year

3,000pupilsaffected

2050:US$83,400/year

3,500pupilsaffected

2080:US$160,600/year

7,700pupilsaffected

Tourismsector

2020:US$468,000/year

27%oftouristicassets

2050:US$665,000/year

32%oftouristicassets

2080:US$1,000,000/year

38%oftouristicassets

Totalfloodrisk

2020:US$10.5million/year

2050:US$15.1million/year

2080:US$22.3million/year

1.9%ofGDP(2023)

2.8%ofGDP(2023)

4.1%ofGDP(2023)

Oneobjectiveofthestudywastoprovideamacro-scalefloodriskassessmentonanationalscale.Duetoinsufficientdata,thisassessmentcouldnotquantifyindirectimpactssuchasthatonlearningoutcomes.Instead,ithighlightstherelativechange(trend)ofdirectfloodimpactsandrisksforeachsectorasaresultofclimatechange(Figure1andFigure2).

Indirectfloodlossesforthetourism,health,andeducationsectorsareexpectedtobelargerthanthedirectlossescalculatedinthisstudy.Suchlossesmayresultinconsiderablelossofrevenueforthetourismsector,orcauseseriousimpactstopeople’swellbeingoradvancementinthecasesofthehealthandeducationsectors.However,indirectlossesarelessstraightforwardtoquantifyandwerenotpartofthepresentstudy’sscope.

Thefinaloutputsshouldbeseenasapproximationsoftheexpectedfloodriskpatterns,basedontheavailableinputdata.Whiletheseriskmaps,tables,andinsightscanbeusedtofeednationalandsubdistrict(macro)cost-benefitanalyses(CBAs),theycannotbeusedtodeterminetherisktospecificbuildingsandstreetswithoutfurtherlocalstudiestoidentifyhigher-riskareasandtoinformadaptationmeasures.

ThisstudyisthefirstnationalfloodriskstudyforSTPatthislevelofdetail.Itgivesvaluableinsightsintohowthecountrywillbeimpactedbyclimatechangeinthefuture.TheresultsofthisstudysupporttheongoingactivitiesoftheWestAfricaCoastalAreasManagementProgram,includingjointeffortsbygovernment,NGOs,andcommunitiestoboostlocalpreparednessmeasures,acceleratefloodprotectioninvestments,andenhanceriskcommunicationinitiatives.

ISLANDINSIGHTS:SurgingSeasandIncreasingRains

Figure2:Overviewriskmapsforbuildings,population,andassessedsectorsunderpresentandfutureclimatescenarios

RISKMATRIX

Allbuildings(US$peryear)

<100,000

100,000–250,000

250,000–500,000

500,000–1,500,000

1,500,000–3,000,000

3,000,000–5,000,000

>5,000,000

2020

2050

2080

Populationaffected(numberperyear)

<100

100–250

250–500

500–1,000

1,000–2,500

2,500–5,000

>5,000

Healthsector(US$peryear)

<1,000

1,000–5,000

5,000–10,000

10,000–20,000

20,000–40,000

40,000–60,000

>60,000

Educationsector(US$peryear)

<1,000

1,000–5,000

5,000–10,000

10,000–20,000

20,000–30,000

30,000–40,000

>40,000

Tourismsector(US$peryear)

<50,000

50,000–150,000

150,000–500,000

500,000–750,000

750,000–1,000,000

>1,000,000

Totalfloodrisk(US$peryear)

<100,000

100,000–500,000

500,000–1,000,000

1,000,000–2,000,000

2,000,000–5,000,000

5,000,000–10,000,000

>10,000,000

AnalyzingFloodRisksinSãoToméePríncipe,DistrictbyDistrict5

1

Introduction

SãoToméCity,SãoToméePríncipe

SãoToméePríncipe(STP)isaSmallIslandDevelopingState(SIDS)andoneoftheAfricancountriesmost

vulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange.

Inparticular,thecountryisvulnerabletoincreasedprecipitationandsea-levelrise,withmostofthepopulationandcountryassetssituatedalongthecoastandnearrivers.STPischaracterisedbyafragileeconomy,enduringdoubleinsularity1andhighsusceptibilitytoexternalshocks.

STPisthesecond-smallestAfricanstateafterSeychelles.Thecountryislocated200kilometers(km)offthewestcoastofAfrica(Figure3).In2023,STPwasestimatedtohaveabout230,000inhabitantsandin2022thecountry’sGDPwasUS$547million(WorldBank,2023a).

Figure3:LocationofSãoToméandPríncipe

Source:StoryMapSTPwithdatafromOpenStreetMap

CommunitiesinSTParealreadyexperiencingdevastatinglossesoflifeandpropertyduetowater-relatedhazards.Forexample,flooddamageduetointenserainfallinDecember2021wasestimatedat€33million(US$36million)—forarainfalleventwithareturnperiodofabout20years.STP’suniquelocationrepresentsmanyopportunitiesforthecountry’seconomicgrowthanddevelopment.Decreasingthepopulation’sfuturevulnerabilitywilldependonclimatechangeadaptationoptionssuchasdevelopinggreenandgreycoastalinfrastructure,improvingearlywarningsystems,andpromotingplannedretreats.

1TheIslandofPríncipeisontheperipheryofanothersmallislandandisonlyaccessiblethroughSãoTomé,leadingtoincreasedgoodsandservicepricesandadditionallogisticalchallengesfordisasterrelieforreconstructionefforts.

AnalyzingFloodRisksinSãoToméePríncipe,DistrictbyDistrict7

Malanza,SãoToméePríncipe

5years

SÃOTOMÉ

Theproject

TheWorldBankestablishedtheWestAfricaCoastalAreasManagementProgram(WACA)2tostrengthentheresilienceoftargetedcommunitiesandareasinSTPandothercountriesintheregion.WACA,whichisongoing,hasenabledSTPtomakesignificantstridestowardsstrengtheningtheresilienceoftargetedcommunitiesandaffectedareas.Ithasalsoallowedthecountrytodesignandtestadaptationstrategies,andmobilizeknowledgeandfinance,particularlythroughstrongerregionaldialogueandnetworks.Toaddressadditionalchallengesandfillkeyknowledgegapsfortheimplementationofprojectsproposedbytheongoinginvestmentplan,theWorldBank,throughthePROBLUEmultidonortrustfund,recentlyapprovedaprojecttostrengthentheknowledgebaseforcoastalresilienceandraiseawarenessaboutclimatechangeimpactstocoastalareasandpotentialsolutions.

Figure4:WACA’skeyaccomplishmentsinSãoTomé(ST)andRegiãoAutónomadoPríncipe(RAP,AutonomousRegionofPríncipe)

SincetheWACAprojectinSãoTomé(ST)andtheAutonomousRegion

ofPríncipe(RAP)startedinApril2018,thekeyaccomplishments

untilJanuary2024includes:

Approximately

US$15

MILLION

PRÍNCIPE

12COMMUNITIES

10inSãoTomé(ST)

2inAutonomousRegionofPríncipe(RAP)

Around20,730beneficiaries

Trainingof1,000

artisanalfishermen

Theprojectactivitiesaimtoincreasethenumberofdirectbeneficiariesfrom8,000to20,730people,whichrepresentsnearly

11%ofthetotalpopulation,ofwhich44%arewomen.

6Breakwaters

anddistributionofapproximately

1,250maritimesafetykits

tofishermen.

2Protecivewalls3Rockrevetments

Developmentofmorethan

8diplomasforimprovedcoastal

anddisasterriskmanagement.

Approximately

7Safe

3Schools

816

ExpansionZones

constructed,

households

createdincommunities

vulnerabletoclimaterisks.

lessexposedtofloodrisks.

benefitngaround320students

peryear.

2Formoreinformation,see

/

8ISLANDINSIGHTS:SurgingSeasandIncreasingRains

TheresultsofthisstudycontributetobothobjectivesbycreatingnationaldatasetsonfloodriskinSTP.Thestudyusedtherecentlycompletedhigh-resolutionnationalfloodhazardmapsfromanindependentknowledgeinstitute,Deltares,andassessedfloodriskforthepresentclimate(2020)andfortwofutureconditions:2050and2080,assumingtheprojectedclimatescenarioSSP3-7.0(Deltares,2023).

Theavailablehigh-resolutionfloodhazarddatasetdictatedthechoiceoftimehorizons,whichincludedmapsfortheclimatesof2020,2050,and2080.Thathazardmodellingstudy—completedinSeptember2023aspartoftheWACAproject—selectedthosespecificfuturedatestoprovidetwoequallyspacedsnapshotsindicatingincreasedclimatechangeeffects,withoutgoingtoofarintothefuturewhereclimatepredictionsarelesscertain(anddecisionsmightbecometooabstract).Currently,manyglobalinfrastructuredecisionsaremadeformid-centuryclimateconditions,inother