操作管理决策工具(3)课件

操作管理-决策工具(3)2024/4/16操作管理决策工具(3)OperationsManagement

Decision-MakingTools

ModuleA2操作管理决策工具(3)OutlineTheDecisionProcessinOperationsFundamentalsofDecisionMakingDecisionTablesDecisionMakingUnderRiskExpectedValueofPerfectInformation(EVPI)DecisionTreesAMoreComplexDecisionTree3操作管理决策工具(3)LearningObjectivesStatethedecisionprocessDescribedecisiontables&treesExplaindecisionmakingunderriskComputeexpectedmonetaryvalueUsedecisiontables&treestomakedecisions4操作管理决策工具(3)Models,andtheTechniquesofScientificManagementCanHelpManagersTo:Gaindeeperinsightintothenatureof businessrelationshipsFindbetterwaystoassessvaluesin suchrelationships;andSeeawayofreducing,oratleast understanding,uncertaintythat surroundsbusinessplansand actions5操作管理决策工具(3)StepstoGoodDecisionsDefineproblem&influencingfactorsEstablishdecisioncriteriaSelectdecision-makingtool(model)Identify&evaluatealternativesusingdecision-makingtool(model)SelectbestalternativeImplementdecision6操作管理决策工具(3)AdvantagesofUsingModelsTheyarelessexpensiveanddisruptivethan experimentingwiththerealworldsystemTheyallowoperationsmanagerstoask“Whatif” typesofquestionsTheyarebuiltformanagementproblemsand encouragemanagementinputTheyforceaconsistentandsystematicapproachto theanalysisofproblemsTheyrequiremanagerstobespecificabout constraintsandgoalsrelatingtoaproblemTheycanhelpreducethetimeneededindecision making7操作管理决策工具(3)LimitationsofModelsTheymaybeexpensiveandtime-consumingtodevelopandtestTheyareoftenmisusedandmisunderstood(andfeared)becauseoftheirmathematicalcomplexityTheytendtodownplaytheroleandvalueofnonquantifiableinformationTheyoftenhaveassumptionsthatoversimplifythevariablesoftherealworld8操作管理决策工具(3)决策过程TheDecision-MakingProcess问题Problem决策Decision计量分析QuantitativeAnaly逻辑Logic历史资料HistoricalData行销研究MarketingResearch科学分析ScientificAnalysis模式Modeling计质分析QualitativeAnalysis感情Emotions直观Intuition个人经验和激励PersonalExperienceandMotivation谣言Rumors9操作管理决策工具(3)决策问题DecisionProblem方案Alternatives自然的状况StatesofNature结果Out-

comes问题的元素ElementsofaProblem10操作管理决策工具(3)DecisionProblemAlternativesStatesofNatureOut-

comes决策树Decisiontrees决策表Decisiontables呈现决策问题解决的方法11操作管理决策工具(3)决策论Fundamentalsof

DecisionTheory有三种决策模式:在确定环境下作决策Decisionmakingundercertainty在风险下作决策Decisionmakingunderrisk在不确定环境下作决策Decisionmakingunderuncertainty条件Terms:方案Alternative:courseofactionorchoice状况Stateofnature:anoccurrenceoverwhichthedecision makerhasnocontrol决策树的符号Symbolsusedindecisiontree:决策点Adecisionnodefromwhichoneofseveralalternativesmaybeselected决策状况Astateofnaturenodeoutofwhichonestateofnaturewilloccur12操作管理决策工具(3)状况StatesofNature方案AlternativesState1State2Alternative1Outcome1Outcome2Alternative2Outcome3Outcome4决策表DecisionTable13操作管理决策工具(3)替代方案低中高小型设备$10$10$10中型设备$7$12$12大型设备(4)216报酬表操作管理决策工具(3)确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10$10$10中型设备$7$12$12大型设备(4)216操作管理决策工具(3)概率性决策Probabilisticdecisionsituation不同状况的概率性决策Statesofnaturehaveprobabilitiesofoccurrence选择最大的金钱期望回报Selectalternativewithlargestexpectedmonetaryvalue(EMV)AveragereturnforalternativeIfdecisionwererepeatedmanytimes在有风险下进行决策DecisionMakingUnderRisk16操作管理决策工具(3)不确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10$10$10中型设备$7$12$12大型设备(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大平均值或Laplace最大遗憾中取最小操作管理决策工具(3)不确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10$10$10中型设备$7$12$12大型设备(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace最大遗憾中取最小操作管理决策工具(3)不确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10$10$10中型设备$7$12$12大型设备(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中取最小平均数平均数平均数操作管理决策工具(3)最大遗憾值取最小不确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10$10$10中型设备$7$12$12大型设备(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中取最小10-10,10-7,10+412-10,12-12,12-216-1016-1216-16操作管理决策工具(3)不确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10$10$10中型设备$7$12$12大型设备(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中取最小(4)最大遗憾值取最小02630414100操作管理决策工具(3)EMVAVPVVPVVPVVPViiiiNN(()()()())=N=S*=*+*++*11122LNo.ofstatesofnaturePayoffProbabilityofpayoffAlternativeiEMV方程式ExpectedMonetaryValueEquation22操作管理决策工具(3)以图解进行决策Graphicaldisplayofdecisionprocess问题解决UsedforsolvingproblemsWith1setofalternatives&statesofnatureDecisiontablescanbeusedalsoWithseveralsetsofalternatives&statesofnature(sequentialdecisions)DecisiontablescannotbeusedEMViscriterionusedmostoften决策树DecisionTrees23操作管理决策工具(3)应用决策树来解决问题AnalyzingProblemswithDecisionTrees

问题的定义Definetheproblem绘决策树Structureordrawthedecisiontree决定不同的决策概率Assignprobabilitiestothestatesofnature计算个别状况的回报Estimatepayoffsforeachpossiblecombinationofalternativesandstatesofnature计算它的投资回报率Solvetheproblembycomputingexpectedmonetaryvaluesforeachstate-of-naturenode24操作管理决策工具(3)12State1State2State1State2Alternative1Alternative2DecisionNodeOutcome1Outcome2Outcome3Outcome