钢铁行业2024年度春季策略

请参阅附注免责声明2请参阅附注免责声明3130011009007005003001-1 2-1 3-1 4-1 5-1 6-1 7-1 8-1 9-110-111-1

12-1

2015

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20192020

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2024请参阅附注免责声明45请参阅附注免责声明607080901001102012-082013-082014-082015-082016-082017-082018-082019-082020-082021-082022-082023-08247%100959085807570652012-082013-042013-122014-082015-042015-122016-082017-042017-122018-082019-042019-122020-082021-042021-122022-082023-042023-12247%02550751002018-042018-082018-122019-042019-082019-122020-042020-082020-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122023-042023-082023-1287%0204060801002018-042018-082018-122019-042019-082019-122020-042020-082020-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122023-042023-082023-1287%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%0864210201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024年1-2月粗钢产量（亿吨）同比增速（右轴）2013201420152016201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E77,90482,27080,38280,83783,17392,82699,634 106,477103,279101,300101,908

100,8898.72%5.60%-2.29%0.57%2.89%11.61%7.33% 6.87% -3.00%

-1.92% 0.60%

-1.00%请参阅附注免责声明6请参阅附注免责声明71234-40-200204060200001750015000125001000075005000250002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-12%,%,3000025000200001500010000500002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-12%%806040200-20-40-6080 35,00060 30,00040 25,00020 20,0000 15,000-20

10,000-40 5,000-60 0201

8-02201

8-07201

8-12201

9-05201

9-10202

0-03202

0-08202

1-01202

1-06202

1-11202

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2-09202

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3-07202

3-12新增房屋施工面积：当月值（万平方米）新增房屋施工面积当月值：同比增速（%，

右轴）房屋施工面积累计值：同比增速（%

，右轴）7550250-25-500100

00200

00300

00400

00201

8-03201

8-08201

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0-04202

0-09202

1-02202

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4-01房屋竣工面积:当月值（万平方米）房屋竣工面积:当月同比（%，右轴）房屋竣工面积:累计同比（%，右轴）请参阅附注免责声明8请参阅附注免责声明910请参阅附注免责声明403020100-10-20-30-402014-012014-062014-112015-042015-092016-022016-072016-122017-052017-102018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-01:::-20100-102030402016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-12%请参阅附注免责声明11请参阅附注免责声明12-100

%0%100

%200

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%-500550

0400

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0100

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3-10造船完工量:中国:累计值（万载重吨）新接船舶订单量:中国:累计值（万载重吨）造船完工量:中国:累计同比(右轴）新接船舶订单量:中国:累计同比(右轴）请参阅附注免责声明13请参阅附注免责声明14请参阅附注免责声明15请参阅附注免责声明16请参阅附注免责声明17万吨201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232023同比2024E2024E同比房地产26,67027,30025,20025,20027,09030,42232,84132,64730,74721,36318,368-14.02%16,164-12.00%基建11,43011,70010,80010,80011,61012,05112,50912,62212,67213,86314,6815.90%15,1223.00%机械13,30014,00012,90012,80013,60014,28014,70815,29715,45014,98614,537-3.00%14,101-3.00%汽车4,7005,0005,0005,4005,8005,5805,1335,0615,3045,4855,9959.30%6,2945.00%能源3,1003,2003,2003,2003,3003,3663,4913,5083,6453,8493,9913.70%4,1915.00%造船1,3001,3001,4001,2001,4001,1341,2041,2641,3021,2421,38811.78%1,4716.00%家电1,0001,1001,1001,1001,2001,2801,3491,3781,4301,4621,63111.50%1,7125.00%铁路50050050050050047547446445546358025.20%63810.00%集装箱500600600400600661421473997629402-36.10%

46215.00%其他10,3199,1509,11010,13111,53217,70722,27530,20827,04632,45431,545-2.80%31,5450.00%73,85069,81070,73176,63286,95594,405102,92299,04895,79793,118-2.80%91,701-1.52%总内需

72,819粗钢净出口

5,0858,42010,57210,1066,5415,8725,2293,5554,2315,5038,79059.73%9,2305.00%粗钢总需求

77,90482,27080,38280,83783,17392,82699,634106,477103,279101,300101,9080.60%100,930-0.96%粗钢总产量

77,90482,27080,38280,83783,17392,82699,634106,477103,279101,300101,9080.60%100,889-1.00%供给-需求-41请参阅附注免责声明18请参阅附注免责声明19请参阅附注免责声明20请参阅附注免责声明21请参阅附注免责声明22请参阅附注免责声明23请参阅附注免责声明24铁矿供需平衡表（万吨）2019增速2020增速2021增速2022增速2023E增速2024E增速国内生铁产量808493.67%888989.95%86857-2.30%86383-0.55%871010.83%86927-0.20%国内铁矿需求1497553.67%1646639.95%160883-2.30%160005-0.55%1613350.83%161012-0.20%国外生铁产量47266-1.79%43138-8.73%4820811.75%43676-9.40%438680.44%445901.65%国外铁矿需求87550-1.79%79903-8.73%8929511.75%80901-9.40%812560.44%825931.65%其中：印度生铁产量74162.13%6778-8.60%776314.52%79892.91%85747.33%943210.00%印度铁矿需求137362.13%12555-8.60%1437914.52%147972.91%158827.33%1747010.00%日本生铁产量7491-3.13%6160-17.76%703414.19%6415-8.81%6304-1.72%63040.00%日本铁矿需求13875-3.13%11410-17.76%1303014.19%11882-8.81%11677-1.72%116770.00%俄罗斯生铁5108-1.35%51911.63%53783.60%5161-4.03%54605.79%57325.00%俄罗斯铁矿9460-1.35%96151.63%99613.60%9559-4.03%101125.79%106185.00%美国生铁产量2230-7.30%1832-17.85%222521.43%2000-10.10%20633.15%20841.00%美国铁矿需求4131-7.30%3393-17.85%412121.43%3705-10.10%38213.15%38591.00%全球铁矿需求2373051.59%2445663.06%2501782.29%240906-3.71%2425910.70%2436050.42%四大矿山产量103408-6.71%1049011.44%1082483.19%107246-0.93%1073690.11%1103302.76%其中：VALE30198-21.49%30039-0.53%314934.84%30779-2.26%321154.34%31500-1.92%RIO

TINTO28119-3.30%285931.69%27656-3.28%283252.42%290172.44%3230011.31%BHP24011-0.17%255196.28%25450-0.27%255820.52%25407-0.69%255000.37%FMG210809.51%20750-1.57%2365013.98%22560-4.61%20830-7.67%210300.96%非主流矿产量1341877.06%128653-4.12%14467912.46%138321-4.39%1410872.00%1432041.50%全球铁矿供给2375950.60%233554-1.70%2529278.30%245567-2.91%2484561.18%2535342.04%供给-需求290-110122750466158659928请参阅附注免责声明2530020010004005002011-032012-032013-032014-032015-032016-032017-032018-032019-032020-032021-032022-032023-032024-03焦炭：

港口库存：

连云港港（周）

万吨焦炭：

港口库存：

天津港（周）

万吨焦炭：

港口库存：

青岛港（周）

万吨焦炭：

港口库存：

日照港（周）

万吨请参阅附注免责声明26请参阅附注免责声明27请参阅附注免责声明28请参阅附注免责声明29/ HRB400/ Q235B/ 61.5%// 6-8mm(

/ )(

/ )20133,5553,7759321,6032,35222824820143,0483,3566571,2621,98336747520152,1352,3074129931,293512220162,4122,8264441,3171,31711132620173,8073,8625422,0551,67494580020184,1194,1785022,3702,313110095920193,8823,8496992,1682,51862839520203,7163,9037962,1222,53832831420215,0465,4091,1063,0963,45458775020224,3974,4798423,2043,19133121320233,9254,0788982,4262,7891971502024E3,8804,0308502,2502,600335285请参阅附注免责声明30请参阅附注免责声明31请参阅附注免责声明32请参阅附注免责声明332022A2023A2024E2025E2026E168,637164,465167,412170,499174,245%-2%-2%2%2%2%8,4196,1307,8578,3188,667%-29%-27%28%6%4%6,3795,0795,9686,4196,527%-34%-20%18%8%2%0.920.740.860.930.94请参阅附注免责声明341008060402001202019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-12中国:产量:新能源汽车:当月值（

万辆）300250200150100500-50-1008000700060005000400030002000100002018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02中国:发电新增设备容量:风电:累计值(万千瓦)同比（

，右轴）请参阅附注免责声明3520236036/443/5234/281/793

/162

/2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E98,345114,019115,890117,701119,512%0%16%2%2%2%8,3177,1788,5468,7248,851%-18%-14%19%2%1%7,1055,7216,5566,7646,958%-9%-19%15%3%3%1.411.131.301.341.38请参阅附注免责声明362022A2023A2024E2025E2026E1,2121,3531,6001,9952,412%14%12%18%25%21%165214262313366%14%29%23%19%17%141201237282327%17%42%18%19%16%1.782.532.993.564.13请参阅附注免责声明372021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1,9332,5262,9733,6224,345%49%31%18%22%20%225321371478618%32%43%16%29%29%178298305406525%25%67%2%33%29%0.530.890.921.221.5738请参阅附注免责声明2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E7,4147,8158,5759,80411,072%18%5%9.7%19%13%925412499680831%47%-55%-3.1%43%22%783197362583720%42%-75%84.43%38%24%0.400.100.180.300.3739请参阅附注免责声明2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E6981,0321,1911,3891,626%28%48%15%17%17%159249400522660%48%57%61%31%26%181255354465590%66%41%39%31%27%0.460.640.891.181.49请参阅附注免责声明402021A 2022A 2023E2024E2025E6858729571,2631,638%14%27%10%32%30%4684119181227%-34%81%42%52%25%4680100158194%-25%74%25%57%23%0.200.340.430.680.83请参阅附注免责声明412021A2022A2023E2024E2025E31,36639,55539,00542,56344,031%53%26%-1.39%9%3%9078667738911,005%57%-5%-11%15%13%591487424511584%43%-18%-13%21%14%1.551.281.111.341.53请参阅附注免责声明42700060005000400030002000100002011-012011-082012-032012-102013-052013-122014-072015-022015-092016-042016-112017-062018-012018-082019-032019-102020-052020-122021-072022-022022-092023-042023-11中国:出货量:智能手机:当月值（

万部）请参阅附注免责声明432021A2022A2023E2024E2025E7261,0661,0661,5381,928%46%47%0%44%25%143239310388501%18%68%30%25%29%120193252317411%13%61%30%26%30%0.610.971.271.592.07请参阅附注免责声明442021A 2022A2023E2024E2025E403428615769837%57%6%44%25%9%10599143186200%73%-6%44%30%8%8999133165179%71%11%35%24%8%1.041.151.561.932.09请参阅附注免责声明45706050403020100-10-20-302004-022004-112005-082006-052007-022007-112008-082009-052010-022010-112011-082012-052013-022013-112014-082015-052016-022016-112017-082018-052019-022019-112020-082021-052022-022022-112023-08中国:固定资产投资完成额:电力、热力的生产和供应业:累计同比（

）1466830 0 0 0 0 044510802461614121082008

2009

2010

2011

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2013

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2022

2023核准核电机组数量（个）请参阅附注免责声明462021A2022A2023E2024E2025E5,9746,5377,7548,3658,686%21%9%19%8%4%8018091,1741,5081,686%-2%1%45%28%12%7941,2881,5881,4721,534%3%62%23%-7%4%0.811.321.621.511.57请参阅附注免责声明472021A2022A2023E2024E2025E2,6992,8303,4214,4934,795%12%5%21%31%7%189216394559663%-29%14%83%42%19%176215353493581%-20%22%64%40%18%0.310.380.630.881.04请参阅附注免责声明482021A2022A2023E2024E2025E4,2266,2237,7288,1548,968%7%47%24%6%10%314471,0831,2681,445%-93%1361%142%17%14%1364718521,0041,152%10%247%81%18%15%0.150.530.961.131.29请参阅附注免责声明492021A 2022A2023E2024E2025E1,1231,2071,7871,9642,182%27%7%48%10%11%4884226292392%-31%74%169%29%34%5273200260352%0%40%172%30%35%0.480.671.822.373.20请参阅附注免责声明50请参阅附注免责声明512021A2022A2023E2024E2025E2,3031,9962,0252,7725,225%41%-13%1%37%89%1,4831,2081,1571,2351,517%87%-19%-4%7%23%1,4351,0951,0271,0961,335%105%-24%-6%7%22%3.582.732.562.733.33请参阅附注免责声明525000004000003000002000001000000600000中国:价格:碳酸锂(99.5

电,国产，元/吨)180016001400120010008006004002000日照港:车板价:PB粉矿(61.5

,澳大利亚，元/吨)请参阅附注免责声明532021A2022A2023E2024E2025E7,19915,57912,58411,84012,790%45%116%-19%-6%8%9497,5274,6123,4024,009%166%693%-39%-26%18%8876,3203,9072,9643,486%244%612%-38%-24%18%1.6511.727.255.506.47请参阅附注免责声明542022A2023A2024E2025E2026E4,1574,0034,0354,4534,791%-15%-4%1%10%8%1,2581,4301,6171,8141,934%-39%14%13%12%7%1,0931,1411,2721,4541,575%-33%4%11%14%8%0.720.760.840.961.04请参阅附注免责声明552021A2022A2023E2024E2025E6,5675,0536,7988,70910,414%11%-23%35%28%20%2,6791,1102,0522,9414,016%29%-59%85%43%37%1,3016661,2451,7452,277%34%-49%87%40%30%1.991.021.912.673.49请参阅附注免责声明562021A2022A2023E2024E2025E36,47336,39331,70332,81433,887